Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Kam2

Members
  • Posts

    49
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Kam2

  1. 8 TDs in 10 games last year with over 500 combined yards. I don't think at his ADP (92 in a PPR) you would draft him as a workhorse but he is a perfect Zero-RB target or a RB3/RB4 with a more traditional approach. He is going 40 picks after Michel right now. Robbie Anderson should be on this list. He is being drafted as a WR 4 or WR5 and he is going to be a WR3 and possibly a back end WR2.
  2. 12-team keep forever points league dynasty. I am defending champion and currently sitting in 1st place in the league. Have an offer on the table of the following: Send: Francisco Mejia, Scott Kingery, Eloy Jimenez, Willie Calhoun, Rafael Devers, Luiz Gohara, Mike Clevenger Receive: Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Alex Wood I can probably work it out to where Clevenger and Wood aren't part of the deal. My starting lineup right now: Wilson Ramos Freddie Freeman Matt Carpenter Devers Francisco Lindor Eric Hosmer Michael Brantley Tommy Pham JD Martinez Treat Turner Jean Segura Chris Sale Clevenger Yu Darvish Marcus Stroman Dylan Bundy Luke Weaver Josh Hader Craig Kimbrel Kenley Jansen Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, Daniel Murphy on the bench. I would slide Altuve in for Devers and Harper for either Pham or Brantley. This move would make me the prohibitive favorite this year and next, although I am selling off my entire young core so when this team hits the cliff it is going to fall hard. Hard to turn down arguably two of the top-5 dynasty players but I am giving up quite a haul. Any thoughts would be appreciated in advance.
  3. The Rams drafted Gurley and had losing records for his first two seasons (the latter of which he didn't even reach 1000 yard rushing) before making the playoffs last year with a new head coach. The Cowboys were a 12-4 football team in 2014 before losing Tony Romo to injury in 2015 and having to use Matt Cassell, Brandon Weeden, and Kellen Moore in 12 of 16 games in finishing 4-12. It isn't like the Cowboys were a downtrodden franchise when Zeke showed up and he elevated them to new heights. Fournette is an interesting case because the Jaguars had their best season in a decade in his rookie year. However, the defense was as a big reason for that as anything. Melvin Gordon? The Chargers have yet to reach the playoffs with him. All four of these running backs (and Bell and DJ) are great players but they haven't been transcendent talents in terms of franchise success. In terms of individual performance, Bell is arguably the best back in the NFL right now and what he is doing has never been done before but the shelf life of the NFL running back isn't worth paying them crazy money, especially since it has been proven you don't need an elite one to win a Super Bowl.
  4. The guaranteed money was my point in the original post but regardless I don't see any running back getting $14 million per year annually for a couple of reasons. For starters, that isn't where the market is right now regardless of how mediocre the highest paid players at the position are. Why pay that much more money for Lev Bell when you can pay half that and get Tevin Coleman? Also, with a possible strike looming in 2020 and teams winning Super Bowls with CJ Anderson, Dion Lewis, James White, Corey Clement, and Jay Ajayi as their running backs these teams aren't stupid. You don't need a Bell, Gurley, or Zeke and in fact, if you have a franchise QB, it is next to impossible to fit those contracts together and still have room to pay other pieces any way. Paying $14 million is going to look crazy because outside of those four guys, no one else at the position deserves that money. No team is going to fork up that kind of money with that in mind - they'll take their chances on paying a lesser player and filling in the blanks elsewhere. As for the QBs - You believe Stafford, Luck, and Cousins are elite? I would argue that the top paid running backs right now - Freeman, McCoy, McKinnon - are the positional peers of those three. By your logic, Rodgers should command $37 million per year - that is 25% more than Matt Ryan makes. I don't see that happening; him asking for it or getting it.
  5. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady make less than these guys: Joe Flacco - $22 Million Kirk Cousins - $23 Million Drew Brees - $24.2 Million Carson Palmer - $24.3 Million Andrew Luck - $24.9 Million Derek Carr - $25 Million Matt Stafford - $27 Million I would say comparing Lev Bell to Lamar Miller is very much like comparing Aaron Rodgers to Joe Flacco or Derek Carr, no? Andy Dalton is paid less than the five highest paid WRs in the NFL so you're cherry picking a little bit with that comparison anyway. Bell wants to be paid what he thinks he is worth, which is fine and I hope he gets it. These guys get killed every week and their shelf life is short. I just don't think he is going to approach $14.5 million/year that he is getting paid this year though either. He will likely settle somewhere between $10-12 million which is 25% more than the highest paid running back in the NFL. It should also be noted that his agent accepted the terms of the Steelers offer last year and Bell ended up declining it.
  6. If you think Lev Bell is getting $15 million per year guaranteed, I will have what you're having.
  7. This is very relevant and it has nothing to do with making Lev Bell look bad. It isn't 2005 anymore and the running back position in the NFL is not nearly as valuable as it was then. The Rodgers comparison is apples to oranges with Bell because QB is the most valuable position in the NFL by a wide margin. Running back is probably 5th on the list behind QB, WR, LT, and CB. Its a question of market efficiency and the market is dictating that running backs shouldn't be paid like low-end QB1s. The Steelers gave Antonio Brown historic money last year and in 2012 they gave him a 5 year/$42 million contract and let Mike Wallace walk in free agency where he ended up signing for 5/$60 million in Miami. How has that worked out? I will side with the Steelers and their evaluation of the market in terms of what Leveon Bell is worth given their track record of handling these situations.
  8. @FreeBaGeL this is the tweet I am referencing: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1018986055884779520 In my understanding, most NFL contracts aren't about the number of years on the contract. They're judged on the guaranteed money. AB signed for $68 million knowing full-well that he is likely to collect on most, if not all, of that based on his performance and at the time it was the highest ever for a receiver. The Steelers have a strong history of paying their guys according to what the market dictates. Ben was the 8th highest paid QB in the NFL last year but was within $3 million of the highest paid guy (Stafford). Bottom line is that Bell wants to be paid roughly 40% higher than the next guy and he is at a position that is being depressed in value right now. Its a tough beat for both sides but this is probably the most profitable solution for them respectively.
  9. The Steelers do not traditionally guarantee money beyond the first year of a contract. They are one of a handful of teams in the NFL that operate this way but they have a good track record of managing the cap and restructuring contracts so it works for them. To fully understand the nature of the talks between the two, it might be helpful to look at Antonio Brown's contact he signed last year: 4 Years/$68 Million with $19 million guaranteed at signing Although AB's annual average salary is $17 million, the only money that he was guaranteed has been prorated out at $3.8 million per year over the life of the contract. So despite what Ian Rappaport tweeted about $30 million guaranteed, I would bet the number that was fully guaranteed was closer to $20 million spread out as a signing bonus over 5 years because this has been the way the Steelers have always handled non-quarterback contracts. The other $10 million or so being reported was probably being offered in the way of injury or skill related guarantees that he could accrue. My guess is that Lev thinks he can get a contract in the neighborhood of $10-12 million annually that is guaranteed beyond year one on the open market next year and that trumped the Steelers offer. Even if he signs for less money on a per year basis with another club (which is almost a certainty at this point), all his agent has to do is convince one team to give him a 25% raise over Devonta Freeman and get that money guaranteed over three years and boom - he gets more money fully guaranteed. While it is a calculated risk on Bell's part, I think it is reasonable to think that a GM will ante up for him next spring with the guaranteed money - probably a team that has a QB on a rookie contract so they can afford to pay Bell with the savings at that position. The Jets come to mind almost immediately as do the Texans, Bills, and possibly the Browns. From the Steelers side, to their credit they stuck to their process. It would be hard to pay Ben as a true QB1 and then devote a lot of cap space to Bell (between the two, they take up almost 22% of the team's cap space this year) over the next five seasons and continue to be competitive. Despite Ben's age, he has said he wants to play at least three more seasons and this team has some holes it could use the savings from Bell to fill. Teams have proven you can win a Super Bowl without having a back like Bell on your team which is contributing to him being valued at less than what he considers market value but I don't think that is what drove the Steelers to stick to their guns. They believe in their process but they also like James Conner and Jaylen Samuels a lot. Additionally, the free agent running back market next year is probably as strong as its going to be for quite some time. Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, and Ty Montgomery are the big names who will likely be available. At the end of the day, the Steelers know that Lev Bell is not your typical running back but they believe there is a path to success without him. It should be noted that the Steelers have averaged slightly more PPG without Bell in the lineup (26.63) than with him (25.19) over a 16-game sample that includes his suspensions and injury. That number does not include games where they rested starters. While Bell does things that no one else can do, the Steelers have yet to even reach a Super Bowl with him on the roster so going out and setting a precedent by breaking the bank for him was unlikely to happen in the first place.
  10. I like this list. I have never owned Melvin Gordon and I would rather have never jumped on the train than be getting off too late. McCoy is a favorite of mine but Buffalo is going to be horrendous this year and he is at that cliff in terms of age. At almost an identical ADP I would much prefer Devonta Freeman. McKinnon is a SPARQ-God but his hype train (along with the 49ers in general) is getting out of control and he will be seeping into the back-end of the 1st Round of PPR drafts by August. One guy I thought for sure who would make this list is Jordan Howard. In PPR he is going well ahead of Kenyan Drake who figures to get a much larger market share of touches than Howard does. He is also being drafted ahead of Dion Lewis, Rashaad Penny, and Alex Collins and they all figure to get significantly more touches in the passing game than Howard.
  11. The Texans have a terrible offensive line and a mediocre running game. The Texans also have a really bad defense, though in fairness it will likely be better but still - They gave up 27 points per game last year so there were a lot of shootouts. The Texans also get Deshaun Watson back, which is an immediate upgrade from whatever it was they were trotting out there in Weeks 7-16. Hopkins with Deshaun Watson: Averaged 6/91 with 6 TDs Hopkins with the Dumpster Fire QBs: Averaged 6/91with 7 TDs No dropoff in production. At all. DeAndre Hopkins is being drafted right where he should be and he is no worse than the WR3 overall this year with WR1 upside. Are the numbers repeatable? Absolutely.
  12. Put Cooper on Pittsburgh and Bryant on Oakland sans Cooper. How much would those metrics change? I like the Kenny Stills call. Seems like people are still trying to make Davante Parker a thing when you can get Stills a couple rounds later and basically the same projection. Two other guys I really like at their current ADP are Chris Hogan and Randall Cobb. Both of them are going after Edelman, Crabtree, Will Fuller, and Corey Davis in most PPR drafts.
  13. But which one? We should want to invest in good offenses but determining which New England running back will be the flavor of the week is a headache I would rather not invest in and saying any of them will approach top-5 positionally in fantasy points is going way out on a limb.
  14. I illustrated the touches because New England it is a better indicator over the course of a season since their packages are so gameplan specific from week-to-week in terms of personnel with regards to touches. For instance, presuming Edelman is out, Burkhead is going to log more snaps the first four weeks of the season because he can play in the slot though that doesn't mean he will get 15 touches in a game.
  15. In the past three seasons, no New England running back has approached a 60% market share of the touches: 2017 RB Rushing/Receiving Total Touches - 567 Dion Lewis - 212 Touches (Leader) 37.3% 2016 RB Rushing Receiving Total Touches - 566 Legarrette Blount - 306 Touches (Leader) 54% 2015 RB Rushing/Receiving Total Touches - 484 Legarrette Blount - 171 Touches (Leader) 35.3% Not to mention that James White and Rex Burkhead are both back and White has led all New England running backs in catches since coming to the team in 2015 (he has topped 40 catches every year as well). I will concede that Sony Michel might be the most talented back they have, but given Belichick's track record plus the fact he is a rookie who's biggest job on a passing play will be to protect Tom Brady first, catch the ball second and I don't see a path to him getting enough touches to pay off his sticker price.
  16. Deshaun Watson currently has the same odds to win NFL MVP as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott (+2000) according to BetOnline, so the oversimplified answer is to go hands-off. His 2017 sample (281 combined yards and 3 TDs per game) is impressive even for a rookie but when you take away his first two games, the numbers get comically better: 331 combined yards per game with 19 total TDs in five games. He has Nuk Hopkins and Will Fuller to throw to and an underwhelming running game so its no stretch to believe 4000 combined yards with 35+ TDs is very possible but would that make him worth his ADP (currently sitting at 45.3 according to Fantasy Pros)? He would have to approach 2015 Cam Newton 4500 combined yards and 45 TDs to pay that price tag off in my opinion which would mean spreading out his 2017 over a full 16 games. If you are buying in on the ACL being ok and his rushing numbers staying where they are the juice might be worth the squeeze but that would be one of the best QB seasons of all time. Additionally, Russell Wilson was far and away the QB1 overall last year but he was only worth 3 PPG over the next three (Cam, Brady, Alex Smith) and just 5 PPG more than the QB10 (Dak) overall according to ESPN scoring. Considering opportunity cost, depth of the position, and the fact he is coming of an ACL injury I will have zero shares of Deshaun Watson this year. Some guys I will likely have instead: Ben Roethlisberger (ADP - 113.8) Phillip Rivers (APD - 120.8) Patrick Mahomes (ADP - 129.5) Marcus Mariota (ADP - 143.8) Alex Smith (ADP - 147.5) The fact that Mariota and Smith are basically free should be enough to push anyone off of Watson at full-sticker price.
  17. I think cutting Gillislee is likely but that is still a crowded backfield. I think people see a lot shades of Alvin Kamara with Sony Michel, which is unfair and unrealistic. Also, McKinnon is starting to skyrocket in terms of ADP. By August his hype train will push him to back half of the first round in a PPR.
×
  • Create New...