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Cobbler1 last won the day on December 15 2020

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  1. I mean there’s always the slim chance he goes the AB route and acts like enough of a psycho to get himself cut but in all likelihood he will pipe down and play. He has no leverage to sit out and makes the most future money by being a good solider, playing, and playing well. Money generally wins in the end. And the Ravens won’t hesitate to play him this year under contract and then franchise him if that’s what’s best for the team. I’m sure they will explore a trade though. It made sense to do so even before Brown started talking. If they can land a top half of the first round pick for
  2. Yeah not gonna just give him away. I’ve seen the Chargers and Jags speculated. Otherwise, he’s gonna have to play and deal with it for a couple years. There’s no leverage to sit out.
  3. I disagree that the first was dumb. They had a decent shot at getting the ball back and driving for a fg at that point. After the solid gain on 2nd the risk of surrendering points was too much for my liking.
  4. Yeah that was dumb. The first timeout ok I get it. Maybe you get a sack or inc or something. But after they gained 8 yards to make it a 3rd and short close to the 40 there’s very little upside. Most likely if you get the stop you’re getting it back around your 20 with 1 or 0 TOs and 30-35 seconds.
  5. It’s easily arguable that kicking it is the more aggressive “faith in the team” move. Kick it, get a stop, get the ball back, go win in regulation. At least comparable to a low % shot at tying it right there. Either way you need execution from your offense and defense.
  6. I should have mentioned awhile ago as a numbers guy I appreciate the OP! As for the bolded, I think that is massive. It’s triple the chances of winning. The difference of 8.4% looks small in a vacuum but when we’re talking a small % chance to win that bump is big. It’s that bump contrasted with the roughly 12-15% chance of being down 2 and roughly 15% chance of tying the game that makes this conversation so interesting. For reference in the debate on Rodgers 4th and 8 conversion chances, in the article Anarchy linked in the other thread the league conversion rate was 23%. I have no id
  7. Right and my point isn’t that it was the obviously right to kick, it’s that it’s very much debatable. When I saw it live I thought it was weird to kick it. Then thought about it and thought it was the clearly the right move to kick. Then read some of the posts here and thought more about the winning scenarios that exist even if they go for it and don’t get it and have come around to agreeing the espn win probability referenced in the other thread, which had it really close.
  8. It’s pretty surprising to me how quickly some people are dismissing the difficulty of getting a 2 point conversion and then winning in OT. The difference between being down 5 and down 8 is massive.
  9. Did he get hurt? I saw him get cracked real hard on the 3rd down pass on the drive to start the second half and I don’t think I saw him come in again.
  10. Adding to this, the 12.5% of the time you get the td but don’t get the 2, you now need a stop and to drive 30-40 yards for a game winning fg attempt. .125 * .5 * .5 (tough number to figure out how frequently Rodgers would get the 30-40 yards needed in this situation and then Crosby would make the kick). Maybe it’s lower than 50% but you can adjust accordingly if you think so. Using 50% for it adds another 3.125% to the winning outcomes in the go for it scenario. I agreed wholeheartedly with CalBears logic on his initial post but now I’m seeing that the possible winning outcomes, even if you do
  11. There’s plenty of branches. Most of them offsetting or small as you say. The biggest one left out is probably the 75 ish % chance you don’t get the 4th and goal you still have a chance to stop them, get the ball back, and drive 60 ish yards to score and get the 2 and win in OT. That’s probably .75 * .5 * .3 * .5 *.5. That adds another 3% to the winning outcomes of going for it. It’s very interesting to me.
  12. You don’t dodge giving the ball to the amazing Tom Brady by going for it. You actually are a coin flip away from having to give it to him twice.
  13. It’s a good discussion. Forcing 2 punts is bit disingenuous when they had 3 picks and should have a had a 4th (safety dropped a lollipop right before half). Also, they were going to have to stop Brady in any of the scenarios whether it was from getting a first down or 2 to end it or from driving 40-45 for a game winning fg.
  14. Interesting. Would really love to see their math there. Particularly with the 21% conversion rate needed they say is needed to break even with the fg at 9.5% Because then you still need 50 (really maybe 48%) chance of getting the 2. And then 50% to win in OT. Which puts you at 5.25% without even accounting for Tampa being in more advantageous spot to win in regulation if you do succeed to tie it. I guess they’re giving more viability to the “if you fail to convert” scenarios (for either the td or the 2) where GB could still get the ball back and win or go to OT.
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