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Whyatt

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  1. Yes, SF, I have plenty of thoughts. Developing therapeutics for Covid has proven to be really difficult, virtually every program has been delayed, failed, or otherwise challenged. I’m really struggling with how a Lenz’s successful P3 trial which had input from US government (BARDA, OWS) is somehow not viewed as sufficient for EUA. This is after FDA review and being encouraged to submit an EUA application. Seems HGEN was set to fail here. I think the ongoing NIH trial will be successful, but it won’t be completed until year end. Meanwhile material events could happen, like approval in other countries, but I’m not counting on it. So we could be looking at 6 months of scraping the bottom here. That said, I think Lenz will eventually be approved drug in 2022 and could have a intrinsic value of 3 to 5 billion, vs HGENs current market cap of < 500 million. The company isn’t in danger of running out of cash. So I’m a bag holder here.
  2. Here is a ticker to watch tomorrow $AUPH. Biotech has been awful since February. AUPH has a very good approved drug that launched somewhat slow due to Covid. Buyout rumors are getting hot, starting after Monday’s announcement of $TRIL purchase by Pfizer. Like almost all biotech short interest is high. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/auph/short-interest AUPH is up 30%+ already this week. I’m thinking lots of short covering into the weekend, let’s see. I have 1000 shares at about $13. I was deep red earlier in August.
  3. Tough question. I have to sell some on the news and I expect I’m not alone on that. I still expect a BARDA contract which may or may not be shared along with the EUA news. I think it’s worth $30+ the day of the news. There could be momentum which takes it higher, maybe much higher. I plan to watch the ticker all day. I think a buyout could be in the $60 to $75 range.
  4. This stock has been torched monthly around options expiration. I’ll admit I bought more at $15.xx a few weeks ago. It’s pretty much known a large holder sells options then manipulates the price so the options expire worthless. Holders who don’t want to ride the roller coaster sell when the price bounces back. If EUA is granted that game ends.
  5. This is how to think about HGEN. I firmly believe something is holding up authorization, most likely checking a box on the CMC part of the filing. The world has literally run out of Tocilizumab for Covid, after selling several billions this year. As a better drug with a broader patient base, at some point in time lenzilumab will be in the same situation, supply constrained. It sucks to wait for EUA but it’s highly likely the outcome remains the same.
  6. I don’t think I would invest any money on an Alzheimer’s indication at this time, it’s an absolute minefield. And the company is sketchy as best.
  7. Lol, no. Listen to me now, believe me later.
  8. It’s late, check out details here, including code. https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HGEN
  9. For the FBGs patiently waiting. https://www.lenzilumab.com The site has been confirmed HGEN owned/legit. https://www.sotrovimab.com Is another EUA drug for comparison.
  10. My vote for EUA date was today. Could be any day. I’m not selling.
  11. Great question. I don’t think it holds up EUA or distribution in any way. I do think there are disincentives for the government to promote therapeutics as they can be perceived to diminish vaccination. So I don’t expect much promotion / press conferences from the government. Of course this won’t impact sales, doctors will be making decisions to use the drug - we aren’t talking about boner pills. Good luck to us on our investment.
  12. I’m good Cav, hope you’re enjoying your cabin. Things got a little hot last year but maybe some here realized I had a point.
  13. The selling is understandable but a little disappointing. These guys have multi-baggers so taking some off the table makes perfect sense - financial malpractice to not sell some would say. It’s worth noting the CEO and CSO didn’t sell prior to sharing clinical results and raising $, which would have hurt the company materially. I didn’t consider the fact that HGEN is so thinly owned. It’s improving, but these sales put continued pressure on the stock price. Assuming Lenz gets a significant USG contract, I expect that changes. If you have HGEN stock or are interested in it, Jerry is the first one to follow. No way I can keep up with his DD and I can’t recall I time I disagreed with him.
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