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  1. I respect more that he's willing to stick his neck out there on the line publishing unpopular opinions than if he was just regurgitating what everybody else is going with. I keep hearing on there that "he falls in love with players..." and my response to that is "Who doesn't?" People act like he's picking based on frivolous things while everyone else is using cold hard facts. There will be tons of players that put up video game numbers in college that will do jack squat and people who might even have been backups or committee members who will dominate in the pros, there are no cold hard facts in this, only educated opinions. Everybody has this revisionist history thing where they were the only ones who thought Treadwell was trash while Michael Thomas was the real deal but if you went through rankings threads from here you'd find that there was this universal top three of Doctson, Treadwell, and Coleman that people debated the order of while pretty much everybody had Thomas near the top of this decent sized second tier with Shepard and others.
  2. Only 5 people threw more TD's with two of them having lost their favorite target in the offseason. The other thing you have to consider is that he was on a much better pace prior to losing Cooper Kupp last year. The fact that he'll have his targets back this year, the fact that at 24 years old he isn't a finished product, and the fact that his division is not the strongest all work in his favor. It is puzzling why people are seeing Prescott, who isn't a strong downfield thrower, as more of an upside pick than Goff, who has twice as many good targets and throws a better deep ball as having reached his ceiling. I can see taking Ben ahead of him but have a hard time with Rivers after some mediocre seasons I've had with him. I don't remember the last time I saw a team with Rivers on it win a title. Playoffs yes, winning it all, no.
  3. He finishes high but it is often a few big games bolstering the numbers while in other weeks you lose as he gave you 160 yards and 0 TD's. In some cases you've already benched him by the time the big game comes so it ends up just bolstering your bench scoring.
  4. Not sure why one would want Dak over Cousins who has two top twenty WR's, a RB who can catch, and a solid TE (with a new rookie understudy as well). You point to his second half of last year but even in that he's in the offense much more likely to go conservative and have dud weeks. Sure Gallop could develop and become an excellent #2 but I didn't see signs of that last year and wouldn't want to count on it.
  5. In my dynasty league Hunt and Kamara went 1.07 and 1.08, granted we draft after the NFL draft where Hunt might have been available in the second prior to landing on a RB needy team. You were probably just as likely to have gotten Zay Jones, Joe Williams, and D'Onta Foreman. That said, a lot of this really comes down to one's league setup and the team's needs. If you were in a deep IDP dynasty league and needed defensive help then those 2nd round picks could get you the best IDP prospects in the draft in many cases. This arguing about probabilities is a bit unnecessary as with most trades you have a rough idea of what range of the draft the team is likely to finish in and where the picks are likely to come from. You can typically pick out which teams are playoff teams and likely to have picks later in the round and which teams are likely to be in the running for the 1.01. Unless you get a good team absolutely decimated by injuries you could probably name the 4-5 teams that are likely to be in the running for the top couple of picks in the draft. You also know which teams are likely to be title contenders in a dynasty league and likely to have a later pick. These aren't sure things obviously as injuries, breakout players, etc. can have a tremendous pick on where a team finishes but you could apply better probabilities to getting picks in certain ranges than what are being presented in this thread.
  6. If a person did this all of the time it could get annoying. One time on the other hand could mean he was waiting to see if a player would fall to him before making a pick. I've had it happen in the past where the guy I wanted gets taken and you are looking at the very top of a tier where you'd like to move back in that tier and see if you can accumulate a pick or move up in another round. If you have time during the previous couple of picks you can tell folks you are thinking of trading down if one of your guys isn't there but if you get the bottom of that tier gone in a flurry you can be caught flatfooted.
  7. Uh, the draft was just last weekend, it takes a bit of time to create I'm sure and the guy has job in addition to creating content here.
  8. Uh, this is a topic about the top 5 QB's in the league, why would his name even cross your mind at this time? He isn't in the top 20 QB's in the league right now and he's never before even sniffed the top 5. I'm not so positive he'd have ever made my top 10 in a given year. Hell, his best season statistically was 2015 and he still was 13th in quarterback rating (obviously not a perfect statistic to nab but it was available and it encompasses a number of critical passing statistics). If he hadn't had those two crazy playoff runs his career would be practically the same as Andy Dalton's.
  9. No, he probably fell pretty darn close to where he was rated, was more commenting on him being a viable starter as he wasn't in the top 12 for most of the season and even after the Cooper deal was very hit or miss.
  10. If you went from week 5 to the end of the regular season he was QB 14 in the league I checked, QB12 if you go to week 16. If you look at the last quarter of the season you are obviously looking at the last 4 games of the season which went 39 - 6 - 18 - 43 in the league I checked and likely wouldn't have gotten to use the 43 pointer unless they had a week 17 Super Bowl, and likely would have gotten taken out by the dud in week 15. Maholmes worst game in that same quarter of the season was 243 yards and 2 TD's and no picks, he wouldn't have won it for you that week but he certainly wouldn't have lost it for you either.
  11. I looked in one of my leagues and the only way he finished at #12 was if you counted week 17, his best game of the year by far that counted nothing for most leagues. Just dropping it to 16 games he drops to 15th and if you look at starting him during the first 13 games he was #16 in that league. You aren't making the playoffs starting the #16 QB unless you are lucky enough to be absolutely loaded elsewhere. He was o.k. as an injury fill-in if you caught him in the right week or could work as a serviceable backup but in general you probably could have picked up an equivalent starter off the waiver wire in a redraft most weeks, he was not regular starter material.
  12. Mock drafts almost always overdraft RB's and WR's instead of the less sexy picks and once the draft rolls around you see more OL, DL, CB taken early while projected 1st round RB and WR will end up going in the 2nd or 3rd.
  13. Devonta Freeman was my downfall in a couple of leagues. David Johnson's value was killed by situation. Fournette got dinged by injury and team regressed from previous year. Alex Collins flatlined and Jordan Howard never fit in with the new offense. For WR's, Fitz, Demaryius were highest duds on my list.
  14. He was definitely a risk/reward pick given his lack of a previous track record and would have been very risky pick ranked any higher than that despite the 20-20 hindsight we can now use on him. He was probably the most popular "sleeper" pick on this board and amongst the staff when it came down to QB's and that was pretty much dead on. Only thing they really missed was that he obviously blew everyone's projections out of the water and performed better than even his biggest fans anticipated.
  15. Lindsay wasn't even on the radar at the start of the season so hard to say anyone missed that one. He came out of absolutely nowhere as an undrafted rookie on a team where they had a relatively highly drafted rookie on the team. What's the lesson to learn here? For every Lindsay there are a ton of guys in the same situation with similar skillset coming out of school that never turn into anything.
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