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Everything posted by Men-in-Cleats

  1. I respect more that he's willing to stick his neck out there on the line publishing unpopular opinions than if he was just regurgitating what everybody else is going with. I keep hearing on there that "he falls in love with players..." and my response to that is "Who doesn't?" People act like he's picking based on frivolous things while everyone else is using cold hard facts. There will be tons of players that put up video game numbers in college that will do jack squat and people who might even have been backups or committee members who will dominate in the pros, there are no cold hard facts in this, only educated opinions. Everybody has this revisionist history thing where they were the only ones who thought Treadwell was trash while Michael Thomas was the real deal but if you went through rankings threads from here you'd find that there was this universal top three of Doctson, Treadwell, and Coleman that people debated the order of while pretty much everybody had Thomas near the top of this decent sized second tier with Shepard and others.
  2. Only 5 people threw more TD's with two of them having lost their favorite target in the offseason. The other thing you have to consider is that he was on a much better pace prior to losing Cooper Kupp last year. The fact that he'll have his targets back this year, the fact that at 24 years old he isn't a finished product, and the fact that his division is not the strongest all work in his favor. It is puzzling why people are seeing Prescott, who isn't a strong downfield thrower, as more of an upside pick than Goff, who has twice as many good targets and throws a better deep ball as having reached his ceiling. I can see taking Ben ahead of him but have a hard time with Rivers after some mediocre seasons I've had with him. I don't remember the last time I saw a team with Rivers on it win a title. Playoffs yes, winning it all, no.
  3. He finishes high but it is often a few big games bolstering the numbers while in other weeks you lose as he gave you 160 yards and 0 TD's. In some cases you've already benched him by the time the big game comes so it ends up just bolstering your bench scoring.
  4. Not sure why one would want Dak over Cousins who has two top twenty WR's, a RB who can catch, and a solid TE (with a new rookie understudy as well). You point to his second half of last year but even in that he's in the offense much more likely to go conservative and have dud weeks. Sure Gallop could develop and become an excellent #2 but I didn't see signs of that last year and wouldn't want to count on it.
  5. In my dynasty league Hunt and Kamara went 1.07 and 1.08, granted we draft after the NFL draft where Hunt might have been available in the second prior to landing on a RB needy team. You were probably just as likely to have gotten Zay Jones, Joe Williams, and D'Onta Foreman. That said, a lot of this really comes down to one's league setup and the team's needs. If you were in a deep IDP dynasty league and needed defensive help then those 2nd round picks could get you the best IDP prospects in the draft in many cases. This arguing about probabilities is a bit unnecessary as with most trades you have a rough idea of what range of the draft the team is likely to finish in and where the picks are likely to come from. You can typically pick out which teams are playoff teams and likely to have picks later in the round and which teams are likely to be in the running for the 1.01. Unless you get a good team absolutely decimated by injuries you could probably name the 4-5 teams that are likely to be in the running for the top couple of picks in the draft. You also know which teams are likely to be title contenders in a dynasty league and likely to have a later pick. These aren't sure things obviously as injuries, breakout players, etc. can have a tremendous pick on where a team finishes but you could apply better probabilities to getting picks in certain ranges than what are being presented in this thread.
  6. If a person did this all of the time it could get annoying. One time on the other hand could mean he was waiting to see if a player would fall to him before making a pick. I've had it happen in the past where the guy I wanted gets taken and you are looking at the very top of a tier where you'd like to move back in that tier and see if you can accumulate a pick or move up in another round. If you have time during the previous couple of picks you can tell folks you are thinking of trading down if one of your guys isn't there but if you get the bottom of that tier gone in a flurry you can be caught flatfooted.
  7. Uh, the draft was just last weekend, it takes a bit of time to create I'm sure and the guy has job in addition to creating content here.
  8. Uh, this is a topic about the top 5 QB's in the league, why would his name even cross your mind at this time? He isn't in the top 20 QB's in the league right now and he's never before even sniffed the top 5. I'm not so positive he'd have ever made my top 10 in a given year. Hell, his best season statistically was 2015 and he still was 13th in quarterback rating (obviously not a perfect statistic to nab but it was available and it encompasses a number of critical passing statistics). If he hadn't had those two crazy playoff runs his career would be practically the same as Andy Dalton's.
  9. No, he probably fell pretty darn close to where he was rated, was more commenting on him being a viable starter as he wasn't in the top 12 for most of the season and even after the Cooper deal was very hit or miss.
  10. If you went from week 5 to the end of the regular season he was QB 14 in the league I checked, QB12 if you go to week 16. If you look at the last quarter of the season you are obviously looking at the last 4 games of the season which went 39 - 6 - 18 - 43 in the league I checked and likely wouldn't have gotten to use the 43 pointer unless they had a week 17 Super Bowl, and likely would have gotten taken out by the dud in week 15. Maholmes worst game in that same quarter of the season was 243 yards and 2 TD's and no picks, he wouldn't have won it for you that week but he certainly wouldn't have lost it for you either.
  11. I looked in one of my leagues and the only way he finished at #12 was if you counted week 17, his best game of the year by far that counted nothing for most leagues. Just dropping it to 16 games he drops to 15th and if you look at starting him during the first 13 games he was #16 in that league. You aren't making the playoffs starting the #16 QB unless you are lucky enough to be absolutely loaded elsewhere. He was o.k. as an injury fill-in if you caught him in the right week or could work as a serviceable backup but in general you probably could have picked up an equivalent starter off the waiver wire in a redraft most weeks, he was not regular starter material.
  12. Mock drafts almost always overdraft RB's and WR's instead of the less sexy picks and once the draft rolls around you see more OL, DL, CB taken early while projected 1st round RB and WR will end up going in the 2nd or 3rd.
  13. Devonta Freeman was my downfall in a couple of leagues. David Johnson's value was killed by situation. Fournette got dinged by injury and team regressed from previous year. Alex Collins flatlined and Jordan Howard never fit in with the new offense. For WR's, Fitz, Demaryius were highest duds on my list.
  14. He was definitely a risk/reward pick given his lack of a previous track record and would have been very risky pick ranked any higher than that despite the 20-20 hindsight we can now use on him. He was probably the most popular "sleeper" pick on this board and amongst the staff when it came down to QB's and that was pretty much dead on. Only thing they really missed was that he obviously blew everyone's projections out of the water and performed better than even his biggest fans anticipated.
  15. Lindsay wasn't even on the radar at the start of the season so hard to say anyone missed that one. He came out of absolutely nowhere as an undrafted rookie on a team where they had a relatively highly drafted rookie on the team. What's the lesson to learn here? For every Lindsay there are a ton of guys in the same situation with similar skillset coming out of school that never turn into anything.
  16. NO did not have that much in the way of serious talent when Thomas arrived other than Cooks. Carroo was more of a deep threat in college and would have had to deal with Cooks in New Orleans and Thomas would have had to deal with a more similar player to himself in Jarvis Landry and the two probably would have hurt each other's numbers. In New Orleans, Thomas didn't have any other real talents to beat out for catches other than Cooks, and those two complemented each other's talents moreso than hurt each other's numbers. That said, I had a bunch of picks in that draft and ended up getting the dogcrap trifecta out of that draft as I had a need at WR in my dynasty league and ended up with Treadwell, Carroo, and the Miss. St. Mike Thomas with Jordan Payton thrown in late for good measure. Treadwell paces the group with 56-517-1 over three seasons while the rest combined for 21-325-2 over that span. It was one of those drafts where everyone I really wanted went 1-3 picks before my turn.
  17. I'd imagine that it would depend on where those guys land. If one of them ends up like Goedert and ends up playing second fiddle to an established TE then maybe but if they end up on teams likely to use them for something other than as an extra blocker then they likely stay ahead of him, IMHO. I've seen him ahead of Fant on some rankings though due to Fant having inconsistent hands and not being much of a blocking TE.
  18. It isn't profound that guys who produce in college are more likely to be productive pros, what is being done here is attempting to quantify that productivity in a fashion that takes into account different offensive systems, etc. What exactly is considered the line where you are considered highly productive vs. not is the question here, not that more productive is better.
  19. I am not able to watch nearly enough college football to do all of my own evaluations. During the fall part of my Saturdays are typically spent at a soccer park somewhere and the amount of different leagues, teams, players, etc. that one would have to watch to really have a good feel for all of the variables involved is ridiculously high. I may take the rankings with a grain of salt but I do like to go through the RSP and read through all of the player descriptions where all of their stats, size and speed numbers, and their perceived strengths and weaknesses are given in a great amount of detail. I also look at other sources of info like the Bloom 100, Jene Bremel's rookie tiers, people's rankings here at FBG, and various other sources and don't weigh any single source as the end all of rankings. I find with the RSP that I can go through it years later if I happen to see a player I don't know much about popping up and doing well after a team change or when getting a chance after some other personnel moves, etc. As for those commenting about him not advertising his misses more, you do realize he has a business that he is advertising. You don't ever hear of a restaurant telling you that they have a mediocre Caesar salad and that the fish isn't usually fresh or a hear a tree service telling you that they don't have a clue how to properly trim a crape myrtle or an apple tree. NFL teams themselves bring up big wins when trying to sell season tickets, they don't advertise that they loss three straight at the end of the season to miss the playoffs. No business on the planet emphasizes their weaknesses in their advertising. The fact that others put more weight into his analysis than maybe they should is not his fault.
  20. Have you watched him play or are you just looking at the numbers? He hasn't been given opportunity to catch many passes due to the fact that they've had Cohen the last two years, which has limited his number of carries in general. He struggled a bit last year under the new offense but did start looking a lot better in it the last third of the season, it was definitely an offense much better suited to Cohen than to Howard. You got him for a song and this upcoming draft is not one that is deep with RB talent.
  21. My league allows you to start either a 3-4 or a 4-3 so you do have to have 1-2 DT's depending on your roster makeup. That said, I've had Geno Atkins under contract for quite some time now and he's been worth his weight in gold and I've supplemented the position by picking up a couple of guys of the WW each year just as fill-ins during bye weeks or in case of injury. Last year it was Margus Hunt, this year TBD since I had to cut Hunt loose.
  22. Cheap insurance for what? They are not going anywhere next year and have far bigger needs than at backup RB for a team that opponents will likely stack the box against given their lack of talent in the passing game. They could have picked up someone cheaper or drafted someone that would serve as a backup. Hell, Crowell was just dumped by the Jets and would be a solid back that wouldn't be much of a dropoff from ADP and wouldn't take that much to sign. It just sort of strikes me that having a relatively expensive backup at RB for a team is the football equivalent of the baseball team that is bottom of the division but has a lights out closer. Just a bit of a waste of resources.
  23. I agree. Another thing to consider is that this year is not exactly the year to be breaking the bank for a QB, there just aren't any overwhelming prospects that I'd be busting my ### to get. If you do finally give him some targets and protect him you get to see exactly what you have and if you end up having to get a new QB you are not setting him up for failure by having a bunch of crappy skill position players around him. The last thing they are going to do in that division is win 7 or 8 games. They will be lucky to win a game in their division and also play Tennesee, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, Indy, and Houston that look like definite losses. The easiest games on their schedule are Detroit, Cincinati, Jacksonville, and the Jets, all of which are even to difficult matchups for them. I'd guess them at somewhere around 4-5 wins next year maximum unless Carr really steps up this year, in which case they wouldn't need the early pick to draft a QB.
  24. Well, KC is going to need plenty of help in the secondary since they jettisoned most of their pass rush.
  25. Torn on a couple of these as my league does reward big plays more than some so Smith could have some value in GB. I'm really on the fence with the guy as I have him and can keep him but in our format he outperformed his contract last year as I'd picked him up as a FA for cheap and I'd have to give him a healthy pay raise. However, it hadn't occurred to me that he could get a DE designation where I've pretty much got Flowers and a bunch of JAGS (that term may be too generous for a couple of these guys). Also have Moseley and having him leave Baltimore isn't ideal, but I'm not too worried as there should be oodles of tackle opportunities in NY unless their offense takes a major step forward. What he loses in situation he may just make up in increased volume of tackle opportunities.
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