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Everything posted by ericttspikes

  1. Yep. This generation would've lost WWII for sure. The Worst Generation?
  2. My bet is that Goldman and JPMorgan are the ones running it and yolo dudes attracted to any moon shot get sucked in.
  3. I liked it. Ending could've been much better. I thought it had a great look and an interesting story. Solid, not spectacular. I assume Travis Fimmel acts like Ragnar Lothbrok in real life. The weird Ragnar facial expressions he also used for Marcus was kinda distracting for me.
  4. One of my concerns heading into school season is that policy is still being made on "cases" and these institutions frankly have zero clue what is coming when they actually begin testing. I think we have been living a pretty "normal" life this summer compared to last year; concerts, restaurants, sporting events, etc. To this point, hospitalizations and deaths are relatively stable in most places, especially if a million people are getting infected a day right now. That is a huge positive IMO. Once these "cases" are verified, people and institutions will freak out and I fear the policy responses will be devastating for kids in schools and their families IMO. Purdue didn't require the vaccine and will instead supposedly test unvaxxed kids only. The rub is, because everyone thought this year will be normal, the class is so huge and there isn't any extra housing for isolation or quarantine. It's going to be a huge cluster$%^#. What if they start testing vaxxed kids too now that the CDC is floating out vaccinated spread? If their policy remains based on cases, I see no way the school can operate based on measuring "cases", regardless if kids are clinically sick or not (symptomatic). Tough choices ahead. Honestly, mandating the vaccine on campuses would've been the easiest solution. Protect everyone the best we can at this moment in time with the vaccines, wear masks if you want, but most people, infected or not, would be ok health wise, especially in that age group. But ya know, politics.
  5. A lot of required testing will kick in for schools and universities in a few weeks. Gotta think that number goes up to winter peak #s in this wave if not way past. Scott Gottlieb thinks there are 1 million people getting infected a day already, just not being verified. Silver lining is if hospitalizations and deaths don’t spike as big as winter. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/07/30/dr-scott-gottlieb-estimates-up-to-1-million-americans-infected-with-covid-daily-as-delta-spreads.html
  6. 38 shares. I bought them in 2016 and 17 sub 1000. Didn't seem like a huge investment at the time and just let it roll. In hindsight, probably not the best idea to not trim like I do with most my other stocks. I was just never really too concerned with holding AMZN. Still not too concerned, but my confidence is a bit shook right now. Should be ok, but might take longer to get to my goal. Was looking to trim at 5k and as unrealistic as it seems today, my goal was 10k a share and thinking that would hit in 5-10 years.
  7. Pour one out for Nicky Two Strikes. Not sure I like letting him go. He was never going to develop into a power hitter, but the guy can hit. It was a huge luxury having him at the bottom of the order and getting on base so often. If he can back to 100%, he really has a chance to be a career .300 guy. Those guys are valuable.
  8. I have 125,000 in AMZN, and I'm not buying anymore today, mostly because I'm honestly too overweight even though I bought years ago and have a great return to date. I'm also not selling at the moment. That said, that report spooked me a bit. AWS is the only thing really driving the boat, as has been the case for a while now. I like the ad numbers too, but the combination of low margins and slowing rev growth I have to consider what is it really worth, and 60 PE isn't exactly a value unless it consistently crushes. Another thing that concerns me is their cost of labor. They have 1.3 million employees, as many employees as the state of Maine has people. All labor, especially technical labor, isn't getting any cheaper, ever. That is a huge variable cost going forward. On the positive side, the bottom line was solid. I realized rev comps were going to be tougher to beat going forward, and (unfortunately) COVID is far from "over" and online everything is here to stay. I do think the bears case makes more sense to me today than it did a week ago. One thing I don't see the bears taking into consideration in their arguments is innovation. AMZN is still spending a lot on R&D and building out efficiencies that historically has proven to be rev drivers in the future. Who knows what they can come up with next, but they'll need to come up with something. My greatest fear is that they become considered slow growth "old tech" and wander the tech desert like IBM did for 8 years. In theory I like that Bezos left control with the AWS guy since that is what pays the bills, but until I get a sense of "what's next" for AMZN, I'm nervous about the next few years and have reset my expectations a bit.
  9. My top undervalued WR in early drafts is: Hunter Renfrow WR 104/#326 overall in my latest draft. Nobody wants the guy and I've ended up with him in 8 drafts so far. Dude will not win a league for you, nor will he be anyone's WR 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, BUT in FFPC bestball leagues he is usually going in the WR100 + range for a guy who has been WR 54 and 58 his first two years. I think he's the Raiders best receiver outside of Waller and my bet to lead all Raider WRs in catches again this year. Maybe Ruggs turns into something, but getting Renfrow 16 rounds later as a WR 8 or 9 is a way better value.
  10. Right, we're talking about something that is free to most people currently, but only costs $19.50. People spend $ on all sorts of really stupid stuff. I don't have a problem with any company selling a potentially life saving drug dose costing as much as a family meal at Panda Express. The market will decide it's worth in the long run, but sub $20 is ridiculously cheap. I'd much rather pay for a $20 shot and try to avoid having to pay for a Regeneron antibody cocktail costing anywhere between $1500 and $6500.
  11. Heee’s back. Eloy 3 run blast to win it. 459. Damn. Sounds like Luis will be up soon too. O getting healthy at a good time.
  12. Damn. That completely sucks. So sorry to hear about that. They aren't prepared at all for this year IMO. Biggest class ever, stacking kids in housing like a cords of wood and having Covid vax be optional just as Delta wave is accelerating. What can go wrong?
  13. Wonder if there would be any pushback if they called them the Cleveland Hill People; respecting the heritage of the immigrants who settled the Appalachian mountains in Ohio, but used Cletus the Slack Jawed Yokel as their mascot.
  14. Preaching to the choir re: FDA, but clearly Purdue’s own decision since Indiana U requires it.
  15. Kinda of sounds the same. 3 syllables; "ians" at the end. Could be worse.
  16. Thanks. I had thought the Southern Hemisphere was a predictive model.
  17. Is there a particular reason? The latest PAHO Influenza Report for EW26 indicated that North America influenza activity was at baseline and the Caribbean, Central America, Andean, Brazil and Southern Cone all remained low.
  18. I'm still trying to wrap my head around Purdue requiring a meningitis vax to get in but COVID vax is optional.
  19. It really is everyone else's fault with that group. I try to figure out their position and check in on some of them on Twitter from time to time, but all they really do is complain about masks, why aren't kids in school, how come I can't see my servers face at a restaurant, you don't need a vaccine, people who wear masks after vaccines have a mental disorder, suicide is up because of remote learning and masks, don't test people, kids are immune. What I never see is what their solution is. Just let it rip? Roll the dice and you'll mostly be ok? Yes, we all know things kinda suck right now, but that group is the worst of the worst. Zero suggestions on how things can get better under the reality of circumstances but pissed off at anyone who is trying to mitigate spread.
  20. Yeah, I don't think any of the fall shows are going to happen this year. The Netherlands just had a supposed "COVID safe" music festival that turned into a superspreader event. I think some venues in the US could maybe manage to have safe shows, but have a feeling some of our early festivals like Lollapalooza won't end well and will put an end to most of the other tours and festivals. Having Lollapalooza this year seems like one of the dumber ideas. I get that it's outside, but that event is always butts to nuts packed with people from all over the country and world. https://musicfeeds.com.au/news/music-festival-in-the-netherlands-covid-superspreader-event/
  21. This study published today in NEJM shows that two doses of all vaccines is very effective against Delta and that two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2 ) vaccine loses minimal effectiveness; 93.7% alpha to 88 % delta. Encouraging. Paper also points out that 2 doses is really important, so perhaps the 1 shot UK plan wasn't the best approach. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 CONCLUSIONS Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.) With the BNT162b2 vaccine, a small difference in effectiveness between variants was seen after the second dose: 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) with the delta variant.
  22. Those two Twins games were crazy. I was watching it last night and my 18 yo daughter came home from work and sat down with me. She probably hasn't watched a game since I took her to father/daughter Sox games when she was a little kid. It was the top of the 8th, Twins go ahead and I'm bummed. I was thinking she'd just go relax in her room but she stayed with me and we were going nuts in the Sox half of the 8th. We even woke up my youngest who was pissed. Vaughn comes in and gets a clutch hit. That Engel slide was an amazing play. Dude went all out, dodged the tag, got his hand on the plate and smashed his face on the ground. Just bonkers. We'd both go "oooooofffff" on the slow mo replays seeing him face plant. Just got up and trotted away. Nails. Then Hamilton gets up there. I have a laugh about how goofy the number zero is and tell her he's been a good player this year but not the best hitter as he rips one into left. YEEESSS. High fives. The Abreu blast was icing on the cake, but he crushed that. Having that moment with my soon to be college freshman wasn't lost on me either. It was a good time. It was one of the most exciting innings of baseball I've seen, barely eclipsing the last inning of the game before with the Sheets blast. Two incredible wins.
  23. 500 a day seems like a certainty. We're in the mid 300's today with 22 state not reporting yet and this wave is just getting cranked up.
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