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Adam Harstad

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Adam Harstad last won the day on October 1 2015

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About Adam Harstad

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    Footballguy
  • Birthday 03/27/1984

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    Male
  • Location
    Dallas, TX

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  • Favorite NFL Team
    Denver Broncos

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  1. She asked me to post it. I was going to leave it up for 24 hours and then memory-hole it, but this is a much better solution. Anyone interested, PM me and I’ll pass it along.
  2. Hey all, Tom’s sister wanted to let you know that she appreciated everyone’s replies in this thread, and if anyone had any other stories of her brother they wanted to share, she’d love to hear them. Feel free to PM me and I’ll pass them along.
  3. I did. I tried to PM you just to make sure you saw but PMs weren’t working. I still need to discuss with the rest of the league what we’re planning on doing going forward. Most of the rest of the guys have been playing with Tom for as long as I have. But if they’re okay with it and you’re still interested, I’d love to offer you his spot. I think he’d have liked that. There may or may not be a dispersal draft, but I do feel since we’re on a fantasy football board and all it’s worth noting that Tom built himself a *team*. Lamar, Henry, Cook, Davante, Lockett, Woods, Kelce, Ravens. The
  4. No one did. Totally unexpected. He was complaining about not feeling well when he went to bed Sunday night and again when he got up on Monday, but no indications it was anything serious. Two weeks ago he was taking me down in a championship game and already talking trash about the pending repeat. A week ago we were making plans for the off-season. If there are any people in your life who you’re grateful for, it’s a good reminder to make sure they know. Tom knew, and I’m grateful for that at least.
  5. Hey y’all. I wish to hell I wasn’t writing this right now. But Tom, better known around here as @Man of Constant Sorrow, died of natural causes on Monday morning. I know many of you knew him and some of you have met him. I’ve seen people I know disappear before and always wondered what happened to them, and I didn’t want you to wonder. He always spoke fondly of the FFA. I know this was a place that was here for him when he needed it. I’ve known Tom for nearly 20 years now. I met him on a long-defunct forum for a video game (Baldur’s Gate 2). He invited me to join a fantasy football league
  6. Hey @MikeIke. You probably don't really know me, since I've never ventured much into the FFA. Joe linked me to this thread, though, and I wanted to come by and offer my perspective, too. When I was 13 and my brother was 15, my mom used to get her nails professionally done. Mostly because my mom is a hyper-sociable person, and professional nail appointments are professional chat appointments. (You gotta do something while the lacquer dries, right?) Her favorite nail tech at the time, we'll call her "Sharon", was around 26 and had a 12-year-old daughter, we'll call her "Mary". Sharon kept t
  7. Yup. Pharoh Cooper could get some, too, but I'd be surprised if Austin isn't handling the majority of them. Edit: I've tentatively got Austin projected for 66% of LA's punt returns, but that's largely just me being pretty conservative on the heels of the big extension. I wouldn't at all be surprised if that number wound up being more like the 90% he's averaged over the last two years.
  8. I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term. I actually wrote about garbage time earlier this year with respect to DeAndre Hopkins. My finding at the time: if we defined "garbage time" as "trailing by 14+ points", Hopkins led the league in "garbage time" receiving yards by a substantial margin. The problem? DeAndre Hopkins also ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards *OUTSIDE* of garbage time. DeAndre Hopkins had a crap-ton of yards, and so he was
  9. I see this said a lot, but is it really true? I'm not saying that it's not, necessarily, but I don't recall Jacksonville getting blown out a lot and being constantly in furious comeback mode. I see Bortles as a modern day Favre. He's a gunslinger. He'll have his share of bad interceptions, but the stats will be there at the end of the day. He also adds some decent rushing stats which help from a fantasy perspective. I think his rookie season was just so bad that people's view of him are somewhat tainted. He was the No. 3 overall pick (so pedigree is there), has the prototypical size, has above
  10. Case in point: Tom Brady has now thrown 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in the AFCCG. (Not counting the INT on the game-tying 2pc attempt.) Big deal, so what, someone asks? Well, I agree. Big deal, so what. It's a weird and contrived sample, and a small one at that. But if that was a Peyton Manning stat, how much do you want to bet it's all we'd ever hear about every time Peyton made it to the AFCCG? Suddenly that fits the narrative and it's a very interesting bit of info.
  11. Using PFR's scoring (1/25 passing, 4pt TD, -2 INT), Cam Newton ranks: 1st in fantasy points at age 22 (by 50+ points) 4th in fantasy points at age 23 1st in fantasy points at age 24 20th in fantasy points at age 25 1st in fantasy points at age 26 (by nearly 50 points) His first three seasons in the NFL were the 4th-highest-scoring 3-season stretch by any quarterback at any point in his career in NFL history. His first five seasons does that one better; the only quarterbacks to ever score more than Newton's 1627.6 fantasy points over any 5-year stretch of their career are Drew Brees (who had th
  12. Least-impressive 1200-yard, top-10 (standard) or top-12 (PPR) fantasy season of all time, IMO.
  13. Perhaps this will be ironic coming from the guy who this season worked on a big project to leverage projections to create a dynasty-viable VBD-equivalent that was both specific and detailed enough to precisely estimate gaps between players, but I've long believed that projections are inferior to heuristics in dynasty. In fact, the whole project basically hinged on the ability to create heuristics that waddled like projections and quacked like projections, but weren't actually projections. They were all just rough estimations and historical approximations and vaguely scientific hand-waves, gene
  14. To be clear, (and I hope I'm not speaking out of turn here), ZWK was talking about "value", which he identified as a concept distinct from, (but related to), VBD. I believe ZWK conceptualizes "value" like I conceptualize "value"- as some magical construct that perfectly encapsulates a player's contributions to your championship odds. In the past, I've called it "VAL" to make clear that I was talking about a specific concept rather than value in the abstract. In order to measure things like efficiency and preference, economists were faced with a conundrum- they had to measure human satisfaction
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