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Morton Muffley

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  1. Is it a fair default position to say that if you think more could/should be done to limit the spread of the virus that you aren't calling for the end of capitalism and the suspension of liberty? Just curious if the ridiculous strawman arguments go both ways?
  2. I, too, want to know more. Everything I have seen as shown domestic air travel was down 50-60% year-over-year. I bet many people still had Thanksgiving with people outside their immediate HH, but I'd be surprised if that netted ONLY a 5% reduction in total interactions. Please share more specifics @parasaurolophus
  3. Hey, sorry about my smart@$$edness. It's just that I have little patience for any comparisons of this to the seasonal flu. That comparison is a bit of a lightning rod for me as it was put to bed a long time ago. Still, I could/should have been way cooler. Thanks for recognizing your error. I, too, am man enough to admit mine.
  4. I, too, thought we we were done with these. Which is why I respond with such contempt for anyone who seeks to travel down this well-trodden path AGAIN.
  5. Because I am tired of schooling people like you on this virus. That's why I am snarky. So you are now contending that a virus that has a well documented mortality rate of .1%, annually kills .2% of South Dakotans? Is that what you are claiming? And to what do you attribute this outrageous run of bad luck that South Dakota should be SO much more susceptible to both contracting and succumbing to this seasonal virus than the rest of the US? Please check your math, come back here and apologize when you have found the correct answer. Until then I shall continue to fight nonsense with snark, because apparently cogent argument, math, and science are ill-suited to the task.
  6. Am guessing that less than 100% of South Dakotan contract seasonal flu annually. Also, most of the deaths occurred during the low season. But by all means don't let any of that keep you from comparing this to the seasonal flu. You be you.
  7. Yeah, I uad read about this previously as well. Unfortunately I think this is a natural human reaction and throughout this entire pandemic I have been reminded of this painting from Mark Tansey.
  8. What I think Biden would have done differently and what difference that would have meant. TLDR: Biden’s actions would minimally save 27k lives Messaging I agree with others that write that Biden would not have politicized mask wearing, would have let scientists lead the messaging, and would not have undermined his own administration’s messaging. Lockdowns and Stay-at-Home-Advisories I think Biden would have encouraged, and provided governors more political cover wrt, stay-at-home orders and targeted, rolling lockdowns similar to what Charlie Baker did in Massachusetts. In addition, I think Biden would have pushed harder for a second stimulus package to align with and support individuals and businesses through this. Defense Production Act Biden would have moved faster to enact the defense production act for the purpose of producing both PPE (needed) and ventilators (wasted $ given subsequent learnings). Vaccine Production From all indications it appears that Operation Warp Speed has been successful and the $ provided was needed and well-directed. I honestly believe that Biden would have done the same thing. Contact Tracing I believe Biden would have pushed harder for a national testing and contact tracing system. It doesn’t appear that contact tracing has been successful anywhere and so while the concept is sound I believe this would have been wasted $ and wasted effort because of American’s inherent skepticism and distrust of government generally and fear for privacy concerns specifically. I do not believe Biden would have been able to do anything to change this outcome. Testing Unlike Trump who seems to have done whatever little he could to slow testing, I believe Biden would have developed a Warp-Speed like initiative intended to ramp up testing of all kinds (i.e. both PCR and rapid testing). None of that would have made a difference prior to this current wave, but I do believe we will look back on this wave and regret that we didn’t do more to increase testing. So how can one quantify the above? Well, I think it’s obvious that Biden would have spent more $ and effort on this issue than Trump has. And as Jerome Powell said many weeks ago regarding the needed stimulus “there is little risk in overdoing it” I think that’s true for much of the above. Sure, we might have produced unnecessary ventilators and created a contact tracing program that was grossly under-utilized, but those would have been more than made up for by having more PPE early on, more testing to better target rolling lockdowns in this wave, more stimulus (to help with the recovery), and more consistently adopted mask-wearing. And now for the numbers: Part of what is so hard to assess about Biden’s impact is that I agree with you Para that I don’t think much of Biden’s impact would have occurred yet. I think because of when and how this pandemic hit that much of what I describe above remains to be played out through this Fall/Winter wave. Indeed, I think we are starting to see that play out now. Europe seems to have gotten rising cases under control but I don’t hold out much hope for the US in this regard. If we disregard South Asian countries (different culture), Australia & New Zealand (island nations so wholly comparable) and Germany (because I am being kind by removing the European nation I think we SHOULD have been able to emulate), that leaves us with the following European nations for comparison purposes: · France · UK · Spain · Italy Three of the above four have to date averaged more deaths per capita than the US and the fourth (France) is similar. This would seem to lend to support to the notion that a Biden presidency would have had no material impact on US outcomes. I’d argue that these countries SHOULD have set off alarm bells for the US that Biden might have leveraged to get an early jump. But for the sake of argument let’s put THAT aside as well. If we use IHME calculation for each country going forward you’ll see that the model predicts each of the above countries to fair MUCH better of the next 3 months than the US. The end result of which is that the US will end up with MORE deaths per capita than each of those 4 countries. I realize this is all model-based but it comports with everything I have written above (actions, messaging, consistency, and current Wave 3 results). The net net of all that is that if the US ONLY performed as well as these rather poorly performing and earlier impacted European countries then the US would have had 27k fewer deaths. I could easily build a model based on other countries or that factored in our successful leveraging of the early warning that Europe provided to yield something approaching 100k lives saved, but I wanted to err on the side of (small c) conservatism. As such, I am confident in attributing at least 27 deaths directly on our current POTUS and his enablers. Now, that may not seem like a lot given that we are projecting to lose 470k by 3/1 according to the IHME model, but it is also both a very conservative estimate AND does not factor in quality of life for survivors, emotional trauma (for loved ones and over-worked healthcare workers), healthcare costs, etc. And fwiw, I really, really don't understand the myopia of our inability to look at and learn from other countries successes and failures. This American exceptionalism idea IS our downfall. Heck, if it's our pride getting in the way maybe we adopt Picasso's quote that "great artists steal." We ARE a great country...and we will continue to be a great country only by inovating as necessary and sometimes that innovation will require us to steal the great ideas from other countries! As always, just my opinion.
  9. I think most people who feel that way are simply reacting to the idea that the fractional allocation signifies that the slaves are "less than fully human." I don't think many of these people have really thought about why the clause exists, nor the implications of eliminating or adjusting it.
  10. Understood, but when you do silly love song-y things in a song titled Silly Love Songs you get a complete pass from me. 'Cuz here I go.....agaaiiiin...
  11. Below are my top 25 Paul songs, some of which I have posted already, but can't remember which so here is the entire list. Also, I recognize that I failed to correctly guess a single one of your #1s for ANY of the former Beatles...and yet somehow I still feel confident that I won that contest. 1--Maybe I'm Amazed--Chalk 2--Back Seat of My Car--Love the Brian Wilson influence on Back in the USSR, Love the Brian Wilson influence even more on this 3--Let Me Roll It--Love the ripped off guitar and everything else 4--Take It Away--Sublime 5- -Monkberry Moon Delight- - -Agree with everything OH said about this EXCEPT that crap about Tom Waits 6--Nineteen Hundred and Eighty Five--Love the piano, the voice, the fun….love everything about this song 7- -My Brave Face- - -When this song was released I was a bigger Costello fan that a McCartney fan (see Paul's 1983-1988 discography to understand why). Anyway, this was two idols coming together to write a perfect song. I don't like the production on this album, but the production on this song doesn't bother me as much as it bothers Krista. I just think this is a great song, with clever Costello wordplay and great melody. 8--Every Night--Simplicity personified. The backstory helps elevate it (which is NOT a reason to like a song - am looking at you Tears in Heaven - but I do, sue me) 9--Too Many People--Sorry John, it's a great song 10--Little Willow--Beautiful and heartfelt 11--Wanderlust--Was originally in my top ten…probably still should be. 12--Sing the Changes--A little repetitive lyrically, but still freaking awesome 13--Jet--Stupid lyrics, but lots of fun 14--Band on the Run--Like it, just not a fan of the big 70s rock-opera stuff 15- -My Valentine- - -Sure the voice is weakened, but that doesn't bother me at all when the song and the band are so great. And what I especially love is that in the process of recording an album of American standard covers, he wrote the best song of the bunch. That's genius! 16--Silly Love Songs--That bass is killer 17--Appreciate--I admit that I may like this song because it just doesn't feel like anything else Paul has recorded. I like that 18--Junior's Farm--"Take me home Jimmy." Who puts the guitar solo at the front of the song? 19- -Beware My Love- - -I like to imagine that this version contains the Jon Bonham drumming from the demo 20--With a Little Luck--I admit that it is easy listening, but still contend that this is a great song 21--Coming Up (freak version)--Weird song 22--Dominoes--Hooky as hell. May not wear well over time, but am still enjoying it two years post release 23--Dear Boy--Not typically a fan of Paul's songs wherein he takes on an affect, but this one works for me 24--Anyway--This is the song I was referring to when I wrote that it could switch places with Let It Be (note: I think Let It Be is very good, not great…it's a bit repetitive) 25--222--I may like this song as much as I do because of the video. I have no ear for music and that video helps me immensely
  12. I regret that I have but one life to give for my NASDAQ* *To be clear, the stock market is NOT the economy. Yes, we must keep basic services from collapsing, but the grist-for-the-wall-street-mill philosophy that some have adopted is quite disgusting. So, before spamming me with "we can't just shut everything down!" I would ask that any naysayers thrice chant quietly to themselves "the stock market is not the economy" before proceeding. Thanks in advance.
  13. It's only when I venture into the PSF that I am reminded that we are the only country in this world, the only country that is battling this pandemic and that nothing we do, say or instill can change the trajectory of this thing. Nothing to learn from, nothing to model, no other countries that have been successful. It is what it is.
  14. yeah, I admit the "we can all do this together" definitely isn't in the lyrics anywhere but I like to think his singing tone is akin to knowing that you are waking people up to a harder reality than the state they are in right now. It must be done, but you wonder if ignorance isn't bliss and that they'd prefer to remain asleep. Still, the fact that he's trying at all suggests that he thinks it's better for ALL of us to be awake in reality than asleep in a fantasy *am too old to learn, and retain, what the alt key does
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