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SSOG

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  1. Since the discussion has shifted primarily to WRs what are Larry Fitz owners doing? I've been trying to shop him in my main league for both DT, Julio and Harvin (offering Fitz+ in both cases) but with no luck so far.I know he's talented and the law of averages would suggest AZ has to get someone who can throw him the ball at some point but I'm running out of patience.Also, same question re Kenny Britt. Personally I'm holding him at the moment, bought in the offseason just before his arrest happened :mellow: and it seems stupid to move him now. In a situation where I've waited this long am I crazy for valuing him as if he's fully healthy?

    Julio owner offered me Julio for Fitzgerald, Austin, a 2013 first (likely high), and a 2014 first (mid-to-high). I told him to take a hike.
    Fitz is one of those guys who is going to play well into his mid/late 30's. he works as hard as anyone in the nfl and his game isn't based on pure speed.His mentality and work ethic is the closest to Jerry rice that we've had. He's under rated as his career span will be much longer then other Wr's. I consider him in the same boat as 24-25 yr old Wr's since he'll be producing at an elite level as long as those guys..
    Agreed. I'm counting on 5-6 more years from him. Still on the right side of 30, master technician, and the best workout and conditioning program in the league. Plus he has those intangibles- the fiery competitiveness, the drive to be the best, the love of the game- that will prevent him from Randy Moss-like irrelevance. He's not an old guy. His countdown timer is not ticking. His value is artificially low right now, but it's not leaking, so there's no pressure to move him now before the bottom falls out. There's no reason to panic-trade him for a penny less than he's actually worth.
  2. Since the discussion has shifted primarily to WRs what are Larry Fitz owners doing? I've been trying to shop him in my main league for both DT, Julio and Harvin (offering Fitz+ in both cases) but with no luck so far.I know he's talented and the law of averages would suggest AZ has to get someone who can throw him the ball at some point but I'm running out of patience.Also, same question re Kenny Britt. Personally I'm holding him at the moment, bought in the offseason just before his arrest happened :mellow: and it seems stupid to move him now. In a situation where I've waited this long am I crazy for valuing him as if he's fully healthy?

    Julio owner offered me Julio for Fitzgerald, Austin, a 2013 first (likely high), and a 2014 first (mid-to-high). I told him to take a hike.
  3. You could actually make a pretty good case for Demaryius being the best WR in football this year since he's third in the NFL in receiving yards, but barely in the top 30 in targets. Pretty insane.

    Well, sure, you COULD... But then for consistency's sake you'd also have to make the case that Jordy Nelson (9th in yards, 3rd in TDs, 50th in targets) was the best WR in football last year, and that would just be awkward. Better to just acknowledge that when first-ballot HoF QBs start playing out of their minds, their teammates sometimes start putting up insane efficiency numbers.
  4. Green - 90.9 yards per gameThomas - 90.3 yards per gameGreen has the edge in hands and leaping ability. Thomas in raw physical talent. Much bigger and stronger. Much scarier matchup for a CB. Thomas is just an awesome talent. One of the best in the game already.

    Oh, well, that settles it- if they're averaging the same number of yards per game, clearly they must be equivalent talents. Just like how Malcolm Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are equivalent talents.
  5. Didn't realize there were that many stud young backs. Which ones would you take over Luck?

    There aren't. The current RB pool is much weaker than it has been in years past. For instance, here's a complete list of RBs who are under 25 and currently ranked in the top 30: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Stephan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Lesean McCoy, Demarco Murray. 9 of the top 30 are middle aged (25-26 years old), while a whopping 15 of the top 30 RBs are 27 or older. To compare: in 2009 (the heyday of the young stud RB), 13 of the top 30 RBs were 24 or younger (including each of the top 4), 7 more were middle-aged, and just 10 were "old" (27+). 2009 feature four starter-caliber backs age 22 (Rice, Stewart, Mendenhall, Moreno). This year features one (Richardson). Like I said, this is a weak, old RB crop. And as weak as the 2013 draft class look, it looks like next year might be even worse, with elder statesmen such as Peterson and Jones-Drew maintaining lofty rankings just because there isn't enough young talent coming in to knock them off their perches.
  6. With the earlier question about Murray and Spiller, injuries this year to Murray and MJD, and recent news out if Carolina suggesting Stewart is becomming a bell cow, who's in your top 10-15 RBs for dynasty?

    If I'm just typing up a name in 5 minutes without putting any thought into it, it'd look something like this:Rice- young, proven, productive, stable situationMcCoy- same as Rice, except lacking in current production. It'll come. Richardson- great talent, but I'm not convinced that the Browns won't turn him into the next Stephen Jackson (phenomenal RB anchored by crap franchise)Charles- unlike most, I don't really worry about his ability to shoulder the loadFoster- Comes in 5th due to age and Ben Tate. Peterson- the fact that a 27 year old with a reconstructed knee ranks this high is a testament to the weakness of the RB pool right now, but Peterson is a beast. Mathews- he's had a checkered start to his career, but the talent is there. Spiller- huge talent. The touches will come. Doug Martin- less talented than any of the guys ahead of him, but still very good and in a good situation. McFadden- too talented to languish forever. Forte- consistently productive. Ridley- Belichick has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to tailor his offense to suit his players. Ridley will maintain a large role going forward. Jonathan Stewart- has his time finally come?Morris- the lead back for the rest of the year. And next year. And the year after. Count on it. Jones-Drew- a difference maker with a short shelf life. Buy him now while he's injured. Marshawn Lynch- could be convinced to flip him and Jones-Drew. Probably should, I'm just trigger-shy on Lynch. Reggie Bush- never thought we'd see him put it all together Demarco Murray- I was never as sold on him as everyone else. Strikes me as a good head-of-committee back.
  7. Haven't watched much of Gordon, but if he is only running a couple routes, with teams selling out to stop the run, I just think we should slow down a little bit.

    I do need to make it a point to watch him play more, however.

    I don't disagree, but I think we're reaching the point where you either have to buy in or sit out. Anyone who wanted to wait and see on Randall Cobb, for example, has probably missed out.

    I may be wrong, but I turned down Blackmon for him today so I'm buying.

    They've missed out by now, but they had plenty of opportunities to buy. Randall showed plenty last season, and a lot of people (Wesseling, Waldman, etc) were banging the "buy before he explodes" drum for those who hadn't been paying attention. There's a difference between "showing something" and "producing big fantasy numbers".

    Hell, there's still probably time to buy in standard leagues. His production hasn't been massive. He still has plenty of room to improve.

  8. How does DVOA determine quality of a QB's teammates independent of the QB or team offense? The QB:RB/WR/OL correlation goes both ways, not just RB/WR/OL affect on QB. I'm not all that familiar with the statistic, but it appears to me to be trying to do too much. As for ANY/A, how do they go about coming up with the values to use for the multipliers?

    DVOA doesn't determine quality of teammates independently of each other, and offers huge warnings that it shouldn't be assumed to. It's creators frequently caution that "we aren't saying that this QB is this, we are saying that this QB behind this line throwing to these receivers while defenses watch this RB is this". All they're doing is seeing how teams perform in certain situations, normalizing it against how the average team performs there, and adjusting for the quality of defense faced. What I'm saying, though, is that it's more impressive if Roeth converts 50% of third downs than it is if Schaub does, because Roeth gets stranded in a lot more third and longs, which are historically much more difficult to convert.
  9. IMO Stafford, Palmer, and Cutler are guys who have always had top shelf physical talent, but merely average mental talent by NFL QB standards. They are decent starters who can get you to the playoffs, but they aren't really guys you want to hand the ball to down by 5 points with 1:37 left on the clock. There is an "it" factor missing there. Deficiencies in vision/instincts/poise/character. Lacking some sort of killer instinct. Hard to put into words, but you know it when you see it. It's what separates the merely "good" QBs from the guys who can win a Super Bowl (no Trent Dilfer jokes please). Flacco is the same type of guy. Talented, but doesn't have that extra something of a Rodgers/Brees/Warner. I remember Palmer from his USC days. He was supposed to be the next great thing, but it didn't really play out that way until his final season. He actually threw more INTs than TDs in his sophomore and junior seasons combined (16/18 as a sophomore, 13/12 as a junior). He was a flat out average player. It wasn't until his senior year (which was actually his 5th year at USC) that he really produced on par with his hype. And a lot of that was just Mike Williams and Keary Colbert. I don't think Palmer is a natural or an instinctive QB. He is a physical specimen with just okay instincts. He doesn't play with confidence and fearlessness. You can see it in his demeanor. Very different from Luck and Rodgers, who basically dominated from the moment they stepped on the field in college. He definitely regressed in Cincy, but even at the peak of his hype he probably wasn't the guy people thought he was. I suspect that his apparent decline has as much to do with his mental shortcomings as it does with injuries. All of this is totally unscientific and I don't expect people to agree with that assessment, but that's how I feel. I don't really want to go back on the Matt Ryan topic too much, but I think he's a different type of player. More cerebral. Less physically gifted. I would say he's more like a really good Chad Pennington. I could actually see him winning a Super Bowl at some point in his career (unlike Cutler/Stafford/Flacco/Palmer), but I don't think he's quite as dynamic passing the ball as the truly great ones.

    I do not disagree with this analysis, actually. I think it's spot-on, and it's why I've always been lower than consensus on Stafford. Still, entrenched starter age 24 with history of success in pass-heavy offense with phenomenal arm talent and Calvin Johnson still equals a top 8 dynasty QB. And nothing says Stafford is a finished product, either- up until a year and a half ago, I could (and did) say similar things about Eli. QBs can continue making gains well into their late 20s. As for Ryan- yeah, again, not as dynamic as the great ones, which is why he ranks behind them despite being younger. He's a top-10 real QB, though, and he plays in a very friendly system with some very friendly weapons and a quality coaching staff (which is important- witness Brees/Payton and Griffin/Shanahan). And, as I said, he's producing huge, huge value right now, which is hard to be beat by potential value at some nebulous future date. The fact that Luck has battled him to a virtual tie speaks volumes about Luck.
  10. I know there are Cobb threads, but most of the talk in there is redrafty. How high are we ranking Cobb going forward? Top-12 with Jennings likely leaving in FA? He's Harvin lite with a MUCH better QB. Hasnt reached his potential yet and he's top-5 over the last few weeks.Is he a WR1 every week, or just until Jenings comes back? Do we worry about the Packers ever finding a run game, as it seems they wanted to with Benson, and even if they did draft a RB in the first two rounds, would it effect Cobb's targets?This guy just oozes talent. Always did. He's a true player, just exceptional all over the field, and so young. I'm thinking you can STILL buy low on him, even after his big games recently. He's not being valued like he should, just like Harvin wasn't for the longest time (Although he has the migraines as well). He's a guy whose talent is so apparent, I'm jumping to "overpay" for him right now, because I think it will be viewed as stealing him by next year. I remember shaking my head on draft weekend when he fell to the Packers, it was such a great fit, and such a case of the rich getting richer due to stupid positional values in the first round. Just like DeCastro falling to the Steelers this past draft, and another one I can remember thinking this about was Jimmy Smith falling to the Ravens. These great drafting teams take the value where it falls, and Cobb certainly qualified.

    I mentioned in one of the Cobb threads that I have him as a high-end dynasty wr2 right now in standard leagues. In leagues with mild rewards for return yardage (such as my own), there are maybe 8 WRs I would take over him. In leagues with strong return bonuses, he's a top-4 WR with Harvin, Green, and Calvin.My league's scoring system is extremely Cobb-friendly (yardage heavy, punt returns count the same as receiving yards, kickoff returns give small bonuses), but he's wr5 in ppg in the format, and he's only been trending upward. Cobb has already made my "untouchable" list.
  11. Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

    You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.
    6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.
    Can you please save me some time from having to sift through this thread and explain to me what ANY/A and DVOA measure?Thanks
    Y/A (YPA) is an obvious one- yards per attempt. Passing yards / passing attempts = Y/ANY/A is Net Yards per Attempt. It's Y/A adjusted for sacks. (Passing yards - yards lost to sacks) / (passing attempts + sacks) = NY/AANY/A is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. It's NY/A with bonuses for TDs and penalties for INTs. I forget the exact multipliers, but it's something like (passing yards - sack yards + 15*TDs - 60*INTs) / (attempts + sacks) = ANY/A. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a proprietary stat from www.footballoutsiders.com. Basically, they take every single play and compare it to every other play in that situation. If you throw for 12 yards on 3rd and 10 from your own 32 yard line with 4 minutes left in the game trailing by 13, it'll check it's database to see what the average result in that situation would be, and it rewards you or penalizes you based on how much better or worse you were than that average. It then adjusts those values to account for the quality of defense you were facing. Obviously it's the least simple of the stats, but it's the only one that takes into account situation and opposition. A guy averaging 7 YPA playing in the NFC West with a terrible running game constantly stranding him in long yardage situations is a lot better than a guy averaging 7 YPA in the AFC South with one of the best rushing attacks in the league always leaving him with 3rd and shorts.
  12. Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.

    You can pretty much throw out a rookie QB's stats unless he really dominates. A lot of great passers came out of the gate slowly. Eli, Brees, and Brady being three big ones. Luck's current stats probably don't tell us much about the player he will be in 2-3 years.The reason for taking Luck over Ryan is because he's a far better player. It's the reason why he graded off the charts, was touted as the best QB prospect of the last decade, and was picked first in a stacked draft. The stats will come as he gains experience. People need to realize that he is playing on a terrible team and carrying the whole offense on his back because the team has NO running game whatsoever. In 2 or 3 years he will be miles ahead of guys like Ryan. If you can get that deal, jump on it.As for YPA, it's not perfect, but it's clearly the best single stat for assessing real life QB quality. And I tend to believe that good NFL QBs become good FF QBs. That's why I bought Ben in all my leagues when he was ranked as QB18 despite having an awesome rookie year. People look at the wrong stats.Regarding Peyton and Brady, bear in mind that the league has become more QB-friendly in the years since they came on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if YPA numbers are up across the board, making it difficult to compare current stats to stats from 10 years ago.
    6.8, 7.1, 6.8, 6.9, 6.9, 6.9, 7.0, 7.0, 7.2. That's the league-wide YPA from 2003 to 2011. Creeping up? Yes. Difficult to compare? No.YPA is a good stat, but if I can only have one stat, ANY/A is strictly better because it takes Y/A and adds more quality information. DVOA is better still because it's defense-adjusted. We're no longer in the dark age of football statistics where YPA is the best we have available to us.
  13. I love your posts and find myself agreeing with most of them, but I think you miss the boat on your Carson analysis. Carson had arguably his best season ever the year after his knee injury as he threw for over 4000 yards for the only time in his career and made the Pro Bowl. I really think Carson's demise was based on a lot of factors, some within his control and some not. But the knee injury is a red herring in my opinion.

    Timelines get fuzzy as they fade into the past, so I'll defer to your greater knowledge on the subject. In your opinion, what were the factors behind Palmer's (relatively precipitous) fall?
    I don't think he's looked the same since he tore a tendon in his elbow (a few years after the knee injury) and elected to let it heal on its own instead of having surgery on it.
    Thank you, I'd completely forgotten about that.
  14. I love your posts and find myself agreeing with most of them, but I think you miss the boat on your Carson analysis. Carson had arguably his best season ever the year after his knee injury as he threw for over 4000 yards for the only time in his career and made the Pro Bowl. I really think Carson's demise was based on a lot of factors, some within his control and some not. But the knee injury is a red herring in my opinion.

    Timelines get fuzzy as they fade into the past, so I'll defer to your greater knowledge on the subject. In your opinion, what were the factors behind Palmer's (relatively precipitous) fall?
  15. Here we go with the YPA fixation again.It's an important stat, but I'm not really buying how it's some magical predictor of the future. Most of the current top QBs started out with poor YPAs. Guys like Brady and Brees spent years with YPAs in the 6 and 7 range. Brady has only eclipsed 8ypa twice in his twelve year career. Brees currently has a YPA of 7.7 and threw for 7.0 just two years ago.Really, the only top QB that is also a perennial leader in YPA is Rodgers, and even he had a YPA (7.5) below Stafford's when comparing each of their "breakout" seasons. The guy who was, by far, the quickest out of the gates with YPA was Ben Roethlisberger and he's never amounted to an elite fantasy QB. There are five currently active NFL QBs in the top 15 all-time in YPA. Four of them are Schaub, Roethlisberger, Romo, and Rivers. That's not exactly a premiere list of fantasy options right now.Acting like Stafford, Cutler, and Palmer were obvious frauds because their YPAs were "only" 7.6, 7.5, and 7.5 in their breakout seasons is silly because that's on par with or higher than what most of the current top QBs did in theirs. If you actually followed your own advice, rather than just applying it retroactively, and went after only QBs with high YPA early on than you'd be sitting on some pretty underwhelming QBs right now.

    :goodposting:Stafford and Ryan's sub-8 ypa values tell us they're not Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers. This is not particularly relevant, since no one has ever rated them as if they were. Once we get past the slam-dunk first-ballot HoFers, though, who has made a case, based on efficiency metrics, that they deserve to be ranked above Stafford and Ryan? Rivers, Romo, and Roeth? You putting any of those guys above Stafford or Ryan? Which of the guys you're putting above Stafford and Ryan have been more efficient? Luck's current ANY/A would rank as the worst of Ryan's career. If you want to rank Luck over Ryan, efficiency metrics are not the drum you should be banging here.
  16. ok, so tannehill passes your eyeball test.

    but one of the things about quarterbacks is they have to have opportunities to put up big numbers - do you see miami developing into a pass-happy offense where he gets 40 attempts per game?

    If Tannehill continues to develop, Miami will give him attempts. You get a thoroughbred, you let him run. And speaking of running... Tannehill has some wheels, too.

    Cutler and Palmer are red herrings. Cutler got traded to one of the worst offenses in the league. His leading receivers were Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, and his line was the worst in pass protection in the league.

    Cutler's YPA in Chicago has been about the same as it was in Denver. The difference is that he's no longer throwing the ball 600+ times per season. He wasn't a great QB in Denver. Even in his 4500+ yard season he averaged just 7.35 YPA, which incidentally is about what he has averaged over the last two years in Chicago.

    Palmer was great until his knee got shredded, and hasn't been the same player since.

    It's a big myth that Palmer was a great QB in Cincy. He wasn't. Palmer never had a season above 8.0 YPA until after he ripped up his knee. He was never a great quarterback. He was a guy, like Cutler in Denver or Stafford last year, that people overrated because they didn't focus on the right stats. A slightly above average starting quarterback can look like a great quarterback to you if you just look at things like total yards, fantasy points, and passing TDs.

    The problem with those stats is that they don't necessarily reflect the quality of performance. To a large degree, they are measures of opportunity, not performance. TDs are flukey and fluctuate wildly. QBs like Brady and Manning have had +/- swings as big as 20 TDs from one season to the next. The same thing can happen on a smaller scale with lesser QBs like Stafford, Palmer, and Cutler. They can fluke their way to a season that's +10-15 TDs over their realistic expected yield, and people will suddenly start valuing them as if that's the norm. If the analysts had looked at YPA, they would have realized that those players were never playing at an elite level.

    Stafford is the poster boy for this. It's widely assumed that he played at an elite level last year, but in reality he was a high TD/high attempts guy with a mediocre YPA. Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Newton, Eli, Vick, Palmer, and Schaub all had a higher YPA. They just didn't have the benefit of throwing it 663 times with Calvin Johnson as a red zone option.

    Ryan is the closest thing to Stafford this year. He hasn't suddenly become a better player. His 7.44 YPA average is just a shade above his 7.38 from last year. In real life NFL terms, he's the same fringe top 10 QB he has always been. The reason perception of his value has changed is because he's throwing the ball more (which is purely a matter of opportunity) and scoring more TDs (which is probably just a result of variance breaking in his favor). He's on pace for 629 pass attempts, which would be a career high and would have ranked third among all QBs last year. He's on pace for 37 passing TDs, which is well above his career average. Basically, the stars are aligning and he's having "that year" right now, and he's STILL well behind the QBs who are actually passing at an elite level, like Rodgers and Griffin.

    A QB can really only reach that OMG level when he not only becomes a high attempts guy, but also a high YPA guy. That's what has allowed Brees, Brady, Peyton, and Rodgers to have some of the seasons they've had. The good news for Ryan is that he could still reach that level (Peyton and Brady were not high YPA guys early in their careers either). The bad news is that there's really no reason to assume that he will. He has shown minimal signs of progress since his rookie year.

    I'd value him right now about how I would have last year. As a top 6-10 guy who can give you weak top 5 numbers when everything clicks. In terms of value per cost, I would rather have a Romo, Eli, or Roethlisberger three or four rounds later. They are all better NFL QBs than Ryan and they have similar career FF outlooks, although they are all older. I would also rather have Luck given his draft pedigree, although that one is based on a leap of faith, and not on any statistics. Luck's YPA has been completely pedestrian this year.

    Basically, Ryan is an overrated dynasty asset right now because people just look at the total points and not how he's getting there. I would much rather have a high YPA QB who isn't throwing the ball as much, knowing that he has a greater upside in the event that he gets more opportunities. Ryan is not a bad player, but he's closer to Rivers/Cutler/Roethlisberger/Romo than he is to Rodgers.

    I like YPA, but it's not the be-all, end-all. You want to talk about efficiency, you've also got stats like DVOA and ANY/A. And QB rating is a bastard statistic that double-counts comp% and unfairly punishes QBs who play with elite goal line backs, but it can still add more information to the equation. Cutler was 7th in DVOA in 2008. Since then, he's ranked 30th, 30th, 21st, and 30th. Palmer ranked 3rd and 4th in 2005 and 2006- he was certainly elite.
  17. Tannehill extremely high in those rankings.

    Yup. Seriously considered putting him higher, still. He's just so far ahead of where I thought he'd be right now. He might be the second best looking QB in this class so far.

    "Early 30's" includes 5 years from now though...plenty of time for Weeden to improve and peak, and many of the best QB's are still very valuable into their mid 30s.

    I see a guy with the physical tools and the leadership qualities, a guy with poise putting up QB2 numbers as a rookie on a terrible team...but I also see a lot of good looking young talent on that team...they WILL be much better in a year or two, especially on offense.

    If you don't believe in his abilities or situation..I get that, I really do...there's plenty of room to disagree on a player like this in that regard. But I firmly believe that significant downgrading for age...for a QUARTERBACK....is a mistake....a mistake I'm more than happy to take advanatge of and add him to many of my dynasty rosters on the cheap.

    It's too bad that there is no real precedant for a guy like this. And whether or not he does well or fails won't really prove either of our positions. This is part of what makes dynasty fantasy football so fun though! :)

    ETA: All that said....I would only stick him in the 18-20 area in my own rankings...a good guy to have at QB3 especially if your current QB2 does not have future QB1 upside. I like him as a prospect but I don't see him as a lock for stardom by any means. And like you, I have Foles inside my top 30.

    "Early 30s" was something of a hedge. Typically, the professions peaking in the early 30s are strictly mental. Baseball hitters, the profession I would consider most analogous, pretty much universally peak around 28.

    Plenty of QBs get downgraded for age. Check Tony Romo, who'd be a top 10 guy if he were 26. Or Peyton Manning, who'd be a slam dunk #1 overall. Or Matt Hasselbeck, who'd easily earn a spot in my top 24 if age weren't a factor. The simple fact is that we always downgrade QBs for age, it's just that some of them (Brees) are so transcendent they dominate even after the downgrade. I've seen Drew Brees, though, and Weeden is no Drew Brees.

    I think it's odd that you say you have him at 18-20, but call him a good qb3. I agree that he's a good qb3. That's why I rank him in the qb3 range. I think he's a terrible qb2, so I don't rank him in the qb2 range.

  18. Luck > RyanRyan is not an elite QB. Good rookie year. Not much since then. YPA last four years: 7.4, 7.4, 6.5, 6.5. Flukey TDs and attempts inflating his stats this year. Definitely a sell right now. Numbers will drop when Gonzo and Toddy slide, and when ATL upgrades Turner.Would also avoid Stafford/Locker and bump up Wilson.

    You see fluky TD and attempt totals, I see a major offensive scheme change. And, as I said, it's impossible to ignore that he's currently top 5 in terms of overall VBD.
    Where was Stafford in VBD last year?Guys with low YPA who get their stats from a high number of attempts and TDs are prime candidates for being overvalued. But most FF players only look at totals and points, so they fall for these Staffords, Cutlers, and Palmers every time they come along with a "big" season that masks their mediocrity through high volume of attempts and TDs.
    Eighth in DVOA seems efficient enough, to me. For that matter, Stafford is 10th this year after finishing last year... 10th. And Ryan was 7th last year. These guys aren't mirages, or inefficient. They aren't Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but they're good enough to put up high quality fantasy seasons. Cutler and Palmer are red herrings. Cutler got traded to one of the worst offenses in the league. His leading receivers were Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, and his line was the worst in pass protection in the league. Palmer was great until his knee got shredded, and hasn't been the same player since. If Stafford or Ryan fall prey to a career-wrecking injury or value-killing trade, we can trot out the Cutler and Palmer comps.
  19. Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

    Here's the problem- are QBs finished products by their 4th-6th season, or are they finished products by age 28-30? If it's the latter, then what you see from Weeden is pretty much what you get. I'm willing to rank 30+ year old QBs in the top 10 if they are capable of putting up top 10 overall VBD scores. That's not a bet I'm willing to make on Weeden.
    I've always thought a couple years experiance was more valuable than simple age as far as progression goes, but I doubt it's that simple. Weeden shows poise and maturity, he shows leadership...areas that QB's often need a couple of years seasoning in.But I don't think age/maturity can teach a QB to read an NFL defense...he'll still need at least a couple years to find his peak. If he was 25 instead of 28, where would you rank him? Wherever that is....I think that's at least CLOSE to where you should have him now. The rankings of rookie QBs are based not on their age/longevity, but on their POTENTIAL. The normal guy comes in at 24 and puts up those numbers with poise, he's top 20. If he doesn't progress in a couple years, he drops to the bottome end of the 20's in the rankings. If he progresses and puts up QB1 numbers...he gets ranked as such, and REMAINS ranked as such until either he regresses or he ages well into his 30's....he remains ranked as a QB until well after he's 30 at the least.We will know before he's 31 where Weeden truly belongs...he'll either climb higher or drop like a stone like every other comparable rookie (see Tannehill for a good example of someone comparable this year). RIght now, he's an easy buy for the savvy owner because he's being downgraded far too much for his age.
    I'm a big believer that, while age and experience are both factors, age is the bigger factor. For everyone from mathematicians to hitters in baseball, late 20s to early 30s tends to be the peak. I just don't believe Weeden has much room to grow beyond what he is right now... and what he is right now is terrible. Plus, Weeden gets bonus demerits for playing for such an inept franchise. I don't expect much in the way of stability or surrounding talent through his career. The guy who drafted him is already gone, so you can't even count on loyalty from the regime. I think he belongs with the Blaine Gabberts and Alex Smiths of the world.Edit: in terms of rookie QBs, Weeden doesn't even rank 5th. At this point, I'd prefer Nick Foles, too.
  20. Bad logic IMO, if you're willin to put 30+ year old QB's in the top 5 or even 10.We tend to get a great feel on QB's by the end of their second year starting, and they tend to be at their best in 4 years. Are 32 year old QB's significantly downgraded in your personal rankings? It's one thing to say you don't believe in his talent, or that he'll be a career fantasy QB2...that's fine. But he absolutely has a higher ceiling high enough to rank on a list like this, even if it's near the bottom of it. Weeden's age is a negative, but people act like it's a deal breaker, and that's just silly.

    Here's the problem- are QBs finished products by their 4th-6th season, or are they finished products by age 28-30? If it's the latter, then what you see from Weeden is pretty much what you get. I'm willing to rank 30+ year old QBs in the top 10 if they are capable of putting up top 10 overall VBD scores. That's not a bet I'm willing to make on Weeden.
  21. Luck > RyanRyan is not an elite QB. Good rookie year. Not much since then. YPA last four years: 7.4, 7.4, 6.5, 6.5. Flukey TDs and attempts inflating his stats this year. Definitely a sell right now. Numbers will drop when Gonzo and Toddy slide, and when ATL upgrades Turner.Would also avoid Stafford/Locker and bump up Wilson.

    You see fluky TD and attempt totals, I see a major offensive scheme change. And, as I said, it's impossible to ignore that he's currently top 5 in terms of overall VBD.
  22. Curious as to what size league this is for. Asking because I'm in a 10 team league, start 1 QB, and have Rodgers (but for this example having Brees would work, too). With that as your #1 option, would you want your #2 to be younger (Tanny, Dalton) over guys like Peyton or Ben, or really even Brady? As for the list, love where you have Tanny, Eli too low, Cam too high. I'd also be thinking about swapping Vick and Rivers.

    League size shouldn't affect intrapositional rankings too much, although it'll strongly impact interpositional rankings.If your #1 is Brees or Rodgers, Peyton or Brady are essentially worthless to you. Points do nothing for you on your bench. I'd trade either of those guys for someone much younger ranked well below them if that was the best offer I could get. A lesser player that fits your team is more valuable than a better player that doesn't.
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