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SSOG

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Posts posted by SSOG

  1. Joseph Addai at #5. RU kidding? For his age, talent and studly offense he is in I'd rank him at #2 and #3 at worst. I'd personally rather have him over LT b/c LT has taken a pounding and is approaching the dreaded 30 mark.

    Addai is a very talented back, but a huge chunk of his stats can be attributed to the Colts offensive system (see James, Edgerrin)... and offensive systems don't last forever (see Johnson, Larry). In another offense other than the Colts machine, Addai would be a top-10 back, but one of the nothing-special variety (see Parker, Willie or McGahee, Willis). In Dynasty, you're better off ranking on talent than opportunity, and talent-wise, I just don't see much difference between Addai or FWP. Addai gets ranked ahead of Parker because his system is CURRENTLY better, but not much higher. I definitely don't know how you could justify putting him ahead of anyone ahead of him (Peterson's a stud, Tomlinson's the best fantasy RB in the game even if he does only have 2-3 stud years left, Westbrook is the most underrated RB in the league, and SJax is almost as young as Addai is). If anyone in tier 1 is ranked too low, I think it's Westbrook.
  2. And let's be honest: Tom Brady isn't going to play this well ever again. He's a helluva QB -- possibly the best ever when it's all said and done -- but he's not going to put up 50+ TDs and a 130 QB rating next year. This Patriots passing game is an anomaly. You can't count on all constituent parts to reprise their 2007 production into the future.

    This is the key. When I compare Welker to Stokley, I'm not talking about talent (although I have become a huge Brandon Stokley fan- that guy is a machine in the slot), I'm talking about happening to finally crack the top 10 (okay, top 11) in a season where his QB puts up the best QB season in the history of the NFL.
  3. ....and is ahead of Cutler, Leinart, Schaub, Young and Rivers through Week 11.

    I would much rather have any of those guys than Campbell. In fact, you would have to add a lot to Campbell to get me to give up Young, Cutler, Leinart or Schaub. Rivers? I don't know what to make of him right now, but I still wouldn't sell him for Campbell.I think all of those guys have the upside to finish in the Top 10 of fantasy QBs in the future. I wouldn't put Campbell in the same category. And again, I've never cared about "basements". Why would I care what a guy on my bench will do at his worst? I'm only interested in what he can do at his best. You bring guys up through your minors because of their high ceiling not their middling basement. But like you said, time will tell.
    Bingo. I'd rather have a QB with a 20% chance to become a perennial top-10 guy and an 80% chance to become Ryan Leaf than a QB with a 100% chance to finish every single season for the rest of his career as QB15.
  4. Rudi's a guy who I haven't been high on in a long time. His ypc has always been a little low for comfort, and it dropped even lower last year. A sub-4.0 ypc by a long-time vet is always a huge warning flag for me. When they ypc goes, the only way to maintain value is through sheer number of carries, which always catches up to you sooner or later. It's a vicious cycle- lower ypc = more carries = more wear and tear = lower ypc = more carries. It's a tailspin that it's hard for RBs to recover from- just witness the demise of Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, etc, etc, etc.

    Rudi can fail?

    OK, I've been giving some second thought to this Rudi Johnson situation because I'm beginning to think we may have been too quick to write him off.

    Upon first glance of his stats since the 2nd half of last season, it's easy to chalk him up as a declining vet with a plummeting yards per carry and a loss of effectiveness. My inclination coming out of last season was that this was a RB whose high carry numbers of the past few season were catching up to him at age 28. There's no doubt Kenny Watson has been a more effective RB this season, but let's not forget that most of Watson's production came in one game against the fantasy manna known as the New York Jets.

    And all that may well be true. Maybe the numbers tell the whole case here. But something to consider...

    Rudi's decline began in the 2nd half of last season. I don't catch all of the Bengals' games now that I live in Georgia, but I still follow them fairly closely. I know that Rudi's decline has coincided with the upheaval along the Bengals offensive line. Levi Jones has been injured off and on for a year and a half. Perennial mauler Willie Anderson has been hurt most of this season. Guard Bobbie Williams was injured toward the end of last season. The Bengals also lost their long-time starting center, Rich Braham, early last season. The O-line, which was a real strength for a few years in Rudi's prime, has often been in flux since the middle of last season. I think this -- along with Rudi's nagging hamstring injury-- may be a significant factor in Rudi's declining production.

    I'm not laying all of the blame on the O-line, but I do think it's been an overlooked factor compared to something like solely looking at declining YPC numbers as an indication of a RB about to hit the cliff. I have no doubt that he's past his prime, but I do have doubts about writing him off completely based on declining YPC numbers. I'm unnaturally intrigued by the rest of Rudi Johnson's season...

    That may be the case, but I honestly question whether Rudi was ever that good to begin with. Even if I only downgrade him slightly from where I had him before, he's still going to be waaaaay down my rankings.

    I notice you like Football Outsiders, so let's let their stats do a little bit of talking. Currently, Kenny Watson ranks 6th in DVOA and 4th in Success Rate. Rudi Johnson, on the other hand, ranks 45th in DVOA (out of 45 runningbacks) and 42nd in success rate. Remember that DVOA adjusts for quality of opposition, already, so even if Watson feasted on the woeful Jets, that shouldn't matter.

  5. You can't forget about Andre Hall when discussing the Denver RB situation. He will get his chances too all be it in a secondary role. If Selvin slips up or his much discussed durability issues prove to be true Hall may see more of the field. Certainly Young has produced in his short time on the field but Hall may be the lurking dark horse.

    People have been pushing Hall into the conversation all along since the Henry suspension talk got started, and I've thought they were off all along. When the coach goes out of his way early in the season to say that an undrafted rookie is "definitely a starter in this league" and then makes sure he gets the ball in his hands a few times a game, then he's the guy I want. When has he ever deemed Andre Hall "the future" or tried to make sure he gets worked into a game?

    If your argument is that it's the Broncos, so we never know what could happen....well, OK I guess. Young does have somewhat of a reputation for fragility, and the Broncos have toyed around with the RB situation quite a bit in the past.

    But Young is obviously more talented than Hall, and Shanahan obviously likes Young much better. I don't see him "changing his mind" and going to Hall just for gits and shiggles. Barring injury to Young, I don't see Hall as more valuable than any other garden variety back-up/3rd stringers.

    F&L,

    Great thread. Can you speak a little more about Young's limited work in college and how that will translate long term in the NFL? I have heard about durability issues from a few sources but it sure seems like he has Shanahan's confidence and he has not been afriad to pound him 20+ times a game. Why was he used so sparcely in college? Does he have a bad attitude, are certain parts of his game below average (blocking, etc. [i know of one big block by him :mellow: ), was someone ahead of him on depth charts at Texas, was he hurt to often...etc?

    I guess I am wondering how a guy like Selvin could go undrafted with seemingly so much potential. And one more question, assuming he keeps up the good play and avoids injury and Denver sticks with him as the starting back - Where do you see his draft value next year in dynasty and/or redraft?

    Thanks for your hard work!

    Selvin was never healthy and on the field at Texas. There were also some knocks on his running skills coming out, but nothing that wasn't coachable.

    A player I was pleasantly surprised to see prminently featured in the WR rankings was Braylon Edwards. I happen to be drinking the Kool Aid with him as well, as I pretty much LOVE everything I have seen from him this year, and think that with his combo of age, pass-happy situation and tools, he's going to be a stud for years to come.

    His sample size of excellence, however, is mostly limited to this year, and there's always the possibility that it has just been a fluke and he'll be a one year wonder. Plus, there's the uncertainty regarding Anderson/Quinn at QB, though IMO, Edwards has been succeeding DESPITE Anderson's questionable accuracy that Quinn could clearly upgrade.

    I'm interested in hearing others' input on Braylon Edwards. Has he clearly elevated himself into the very upper reaches of elite dynasty WR's?

    Big fan of Edward's. His per-target numbers and catch% are both solid-to-spectacular. He really didn't give any signs of this before this season, but he'd lost a lot of time to injury. In the end, he's a very highly regarded prospect who was injured and developing for his first two seasons, but who has clearly finally put everything together. I think he's totally legit, and would be looking to buy. The only red flag is the possible imminent beginning of the Brady Quinn era in Cleveland.
  6. I don't know if Walker is as underrated so much as simply injured. Nobody ranks injured players highly, and they disappear from the conversation very quickly when they're not playing. Throw in words like "microfracture surgery", and it leaves a lot of people concerned about his future.

    Understandably so, but he's shown good recovery skills in the past. You can't win championships without taking a few risks.

    See, I think Ryan Grant has been much more impressive than DeShawn Wynn, and I did like Wynn as a sleeper. But Wynn didn't look nearly as good as Ryan Grant and never really managed to wrest the lion's share of the work like Grant has. McCarthy is obviously more committed to Grant right now than he ever was to Wynn. Like I said, Grant has a great schedule down the stretch and has a chance to put a stamp on the GB running back job heading into next season. In my opinion, he's probably also a guy who will always have to fight off competition for the job in the future....even if he does manage to go into '08 as the starter. I don't think we differ on Selvin Young or Rudi Johnson. I like Young better than Grant or any of the vets I listed. I mentioned that I wouldn't trade Young's potential for any of those guys. I left Rudi higher on the page one list because I tend to be more conservative with that list than I am with own team. But I guess if I like Young better than Rudi, I should rank him higher than Rudi. Hell, I wouldn't trade Young for LenDale White either...

    I must admit that I haven't seen Ryan Grant play yet, so I can't draw too many conclusions about him. I have seen Wynn play, though. I'm a Gator fan, so I've seen a lot of Wynn in college, and I have to say, I was extremely down on his chances coming out (along with Chad Jackson's). With that said, I was very surprised by what he showed. If nothing else, he has demonstrated top-notch goal-line skills. Even if Grant is a big-time talent, Wynn could put a serious dent in his production.I do think we differ on Rudi Johnson, though. I have him on my Must-Sell list. If I owned him, I would feel a very, very strong need to move him the second his value seems to peak. Like I said, I think he's in a tailspin. I think he has marginal value this year, and even less in the future, and I don't want another Jamal Lewis on my hands. Some other names on my must-sell list would include Edge, Jamal Lewis, and Matt Leinart (seriously).I think the big problem with Dynasty Rankings is that you really need several different sets of rankings. Obviously, a "win now" team would rank players dramatically differently than a rebuilding team. Also, a team with a few explosive studs already (guys like a Peterson, Brady, or Westbrook) but little quality support around them would love any RB getting good carries, while a team with lots of solid-but-unspectacular players is going to be swinging for a potential breakout stud to put them over the hump. I've been toying with the idea of doing 5-tiered dynasty rankings (win now, rebuild, upside, reliability, overall)... but the big problem with a project like that is the same as with any other project- time.
  7. I don't like Cutler's weapons quite as much as Rivers', but I haven't seen Cutler back down from competing on the field....and he definitely has a stronger arm. For those reasons, I think he has a better NFL and fantasy future than Rivers.

    Javon Walker is a wildly underrated weapon in the passing game. He's a great deep threat, and the numbers suggest that he's the best red-zone WR this side of Larry Fitzgerald. With Marshall's shriek-inspiring potential, and two solid TEs in Scheffler and Graham, Cutler's not exactly lacking in weapons. Rivers' might be awesome in the red zone, but Cutler's aren't exactly chopped liver, and they're probably better between the 20s. Plus Cutler has Shanahan, who has to count as an offensive weapon (even if he has been seizing up in the red zone for the past few years), while Rivers has Norv Turner, who has to count as a negative weapon right now.

    Thanks guys.Here's one I was struggling with a bit today. I knew I wanted to move both Selvin Young and Ryan Grant up because they're not only likely to start the rest of the season, but there's also a fairly good chance they head into next season as the starter if they keep up their current level of production.So what about those two guys in comparison to declining vets like Rudi Johnson, Edgerrin James, and Thomas Jones? I have Selvin Young, and I wouldn't give up his potential for any of those guys. I have Rudi ranked slightly higher because it looks he's out of the woods on his hamstring injury and should remain the primary ball carrier. He deserves some benefit of the doubt. I'm done with Edge. He's been lousy since a few strong games early this season, and he was lousy all last season. Thomas Jones? Who knows, but he doesn't have Selvin Young's upside.Edit to add: What about Justin Fargas? You have to figure Michael Bush will get a look at some point, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders would go into a season with Fargas as their scheduled workhorse.

    The problem with Ryan Grant is that Wynn was pretty darn good while he was healthy, too. Grant is at least going to face competition for his job, whereas I think Selvin Young is much more likely to wind up as the undisputed starter. Of course, Shanahan is always going to churn his RBs unless he finds another Davis or Portis (and even then he might just arrange a trade and continue the churn). I'd still rather have Young, though- if nothing else, you have to remember that Green Bay is one of the worst rushing offenses in the league and is going to lose Favre eventually, while Denver is always going to be Denver as long as Shanahan/Dennison/Turner are in town.Rudi's a guy who I haven't been high on in a long time. His ypc has always been a little low for comfort, and it dropped even lower last year. A sub-4.0 ypc by a long-time vet is always a huge warning flag for me. When they ypc goes, the only way to maintain value is through sheer number of carries, which always catches up to you sooner or later. It's a vicious cycle- lower ypc = more carries = more wear and tear = lower ypc = more carries. It's a tailspin that it's hard for RBs to recover from- just witness the demise of Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, etc, etc, etc.Same thing applies to Edge, plus he has the system working against him. NFL GMs are really, really smart dudes, and the reason why they don't pay big money for RBs is because most RBs are just a result of the system. That's why someone like Kenton Keith sets the world on fire while someone like Edgerrin James withers and dies. As far as Fargas goes... I think Bush is going to get first shot when he's healthy. He was extremely highly regarded coming in, and he's going to at least get his shot. That tempers my enthusiasm about anyone else in Oakland, out of fear that they're living on borrowed time.
  8. I missed this one earlier in the week. Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal sounded the death knell on Denver's legendary rushing attack:

    While Adrian Peterson was breaking records and the Game of the Year stole headlines, a fantasy football legend was quietly dying in Detroit. The dominant days of the Denver running game are over.

    Someday, we'll tell our fantasy football obsessed grandchildren that a prickly little man named Shanahan could once plug in any running back he chose and magically crank out big numbers. The system has shown wear and tear in the last few years, but Sunday's 47-yard output against the Lions was its death knell.

    Don't blame this all on Jay Cutler's injury. Travis Henry had seven yards on five carries before his quarterback was hurt. And there was a time when the system, the offensive line, could carry the Denver runners regardless of the quarterback. That time has passed.

    The show's not over until the fat lady (SSOG) sings. By the way, F & L, this thread is a thing of beauty. I really appreciate all the work you put into it.
    I think it's hard to draw any meaningful, long-term conclusions about an offensive line that has currently lost 40% of its starters for the season (especially when both replacements are first-time starters). Outside of Matt Lepsis, the guy with the most experience in Denver's scheme along that line right now is... Eric Pears, who started half the season last year after Lepsis himself was lost to season-ending injury. This is a very, very banged up, very inexperienced offensive line.

    Besides, not only is it too early to draw conclusions, but the conclusions being drawn aren't necessarily fully substantiated. Sure, he was putrid against Detriot, but remember how awesome Travis Henry looked to begin the season, back when he was the NFL's leading rusher? Denver still ranks 7th in the league in ypa, they just rank an uncharacteristic 18th in attempts (the only time I can remember where they were actually in the bottom half of the league in terms of attempts). If they were in the top 10 in attempts, like they usually are, nobody would think anything was wrong, even with the banged up offensive line.

    Mike Shanahan, Bobby Turner, and Rick Dennison are still in Denver. As long as that remains true, Denver's running game will be very much fantasy relevant.

  9. Hey F&L, I've been wondering... I know you attach a "point score" to a player, and that score assesses his value relative to his peers. Are those point scores intended to be compared across positions, as well? Is an RB with an 83 worth as much as a WR with an 83 in your mind? Or is the number only intended for comparisons within the position, with some other sort of external equivalencies (i.e. RB12 ~ WR3) determined by gut feel or some other process?

  10. Henry is clearly the leader based on Zeke's response to him about why he didn't have the beard on.

    No shizzee.

    Gotcha, you don't even watch the show do you? You just read this thread and pretend, you have been working on this shtick for 2 seasons, man that is dedication.

    No call for being rude. I admit I didn't watch every epsidoe fifteen times to pick up every little nuance - or participate in this thread to follow much - that shouldn't call for this type of attitude.

    I have watched every episode - missed a few minutes here and there over the month of April - but I have seen every episode.

    No - I don't have every friggin' comment memorized.

    Chill, man, was trying to be funny not rude. I suppose I should have put a ;) in there, but I figured you would have gotten the sarcasm. Heck, I think highly of you because you have been a backer of Dominick Davis in other threads!

    Anyway, other people may have actually been more serious (I was trying to be funny but it was after midnight and I was tired) and I understand them being so. I can see why folks who love the show (you have to love the show to post about it) would be put off by someone who says the show jumped the shark. It's just human nature to defend your position, go start a thread about Ron Dayne not being a top 20 RB and see if SSOG gets a bit riled up.

    I don't know if anyone else here is regularly in the practice of searching their user name (to see if there were any big topics they missed or posts they haven't responded to)... but I have to say, this is about the last place I expected my name to turn up. :unsure:
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