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SSOG

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Posts posted by SSOG

  1. Brees was under 250 until the last pass to Sproles.I have both Kaepernick & Brees and I am thinking about trading Brees because I have Forte / MJD / RUNDMC and need RB help.Kaepernick did well especially going into NO.

    What do you mean, "especially going into NO"? New Orleans' defense is Charmin soft. 31st in passing yards allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in net yards per attempt allowed. Drew Brees has been awesome, but New Orleans' defense has made every QB who faces them look like Drew Brees.
  2. You are going to catch hell for foster rank i think, but i agree.Wilson, Miller most glaring for me.

    A month ago, I would have had Foster much higher. His sudden decline in effectiveness is worrisome. Wilson and Miller are guys who are out of sight, out of mind. Guys like them make for good buy lows- think Rice, McCoy, and Charles. I don't think they're as good as any of those guys, but in a weak RB crop, I think they're smart gambles.
    I meant both those guys are far too low.
    Oh. I think you're going to be in the minority on that one. They've both got way too many questions for me to slide them up a little, let alone a lot. For Miller, why did he plummet so far, and why can't he seem to beat out Daniel Thomas? For Wilson, is he ever going to be anything more than a CoP back in that crowded backfield? I feel like I've already got them both towards the high end of where you'll find them among rankers (because I love me some upside), and I couldn't see ranking them any higher.
  3. Are there any current dynasty rankings I can look at?Or do I just use the projections thing that Dodds and those guys come up with..

    http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=rb&type=dynasty&howrecent=21http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/rb-rankingshttp://www.dynastyrankings.net/Can't speak to the quality of the rankings provided in all cases, but that should at least give you a lot of opinions to look at.
  4. well, CRAP. I guess I'm rolling with Rivers then, and Kaep will sit the bench, since I have no clue if he's playing. Thanks Harbaugh.

    my exact situation. they both play in the late afternoon so i am hoping we hear something closer to gametime. do you think we know the starter an hour or so before the game?
    Are you hoping that SI might release a report saying who the starter is, or that a SF player might come out and just tell us who'll be starting? Because... um... Both of those things already happened. What more would you need in order to believe Kaep is the starter?
    So Harbaugh is just screwing with us? The Head Coach said he hasn't named a starter.
    Look at it from his perspective. He has nothing to gain from naming the starter. Why would he? It's the same reason why coaches never announce who on the injury report will be playing and who will be out until an hour before kickoff, even if one guy has missed every practice and the other hasn't missed one. It's the same reason why he didn't name Kaep the starter until an hour before kickoff last week. Harbaugh isn't screwing with us- he doesn't even care about us. He's trying to force NO to prepare for two QBs.
    http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6530/colin-kaepernickHarbaugh admits that the only reason he hasn't officially named a starter is because it provides him no competitive advantage to do so.
  5. and despite Foster getting almost no receiving yards this year he remains the #1 overall RB. I'd wager the yards are more likely to rise back toward his career averages than fall to zero over the next few seasons so I don't quite see the problem there. why give the #1 spot to Rice at the same age and producing at a much lower level and the #8 spot to Foster who has now made it 3 straight years of producing like a guy worth the #1 overall pick (as opposed to 1 out of 3 for Rice) and whose team shows no signs of moving away from him and just signed a long-term deal?

    The saying is that TDs follow yards, not that yards follow TDs. Foster has suffered a dramatic decline in effectiveness that has been hidden in his fantasy totals by his strong TD production.
    I'm willing to acknowledge this.

    While it's appropriate to point out the decline in yardage and effectiveness, I don't think it was entirely unexpected entering the season.

    I'm also of the opinion that Foster can continue to produce at current levels or better over the next couple of seasons. Therefore, the current decline doesn't bother me as much as it will some. Also, there are certain players who have historically been great at producing TDs. I think that is one of the reasons you were as big of a fan of Vincent Jackson's career path a couple of seasons ago. I see no reason to discount Foster for continuing to be an elite TD producer...

    :shrug:

    To clarify, I wasn't meaning to suggest that I see Foster's TDs declining. He's too big a part of what that offense does in the red zone. I'm just worried about him getting hurt (396 carry pace!), or seeing his yards continue to decline, or seeing Tate eat into his role. And for what it's worth, I still really like Foster. Look at the guys I have ahead of him. Rice and McCoy are both younger, both proven, and don't carry as much risk (IMO). Richardson and Martin are younger still and lighting the league on fire. Peterson is a year older, but is a first ballot HoFer enjoying his best season while still recovering from injury. And Spiller/Charles are the only two guys in the league capable of putting up 6+ ypc over a full season. The ranking is not meant as much as a criticism of Foster as it is a huge vote of confidence in the other guys.
  6. and despite Foster getting almost no receiving yards this year he remains the #1 overall RB. I'd wager the yards are more likely to rise back toward his career averages than fall to zero over the next few seasons so I don't quite see the problem there. why give the #1 spot to Rice at the same age and producing at a much lower level and the #8 spot to Foster who has now made it 3 straight years of producing like a guy worth the #1 overall pick (as opposed to 1 out of 3 for Rice) and whose team shows no signs of moving away from him and just signed a long-term deal?

    The saying is that TDs follow yards, not that yards follow TDs. Foster has suffered a dramatic decline in effectiveness that has been hidden in his fantasy totals by his strong TD production.
  7. I don't know what a vintage Arian Foster game is, but I do know he has 5 100 yard + games and a 150 yarder while Rice has 2 100+ yarders with a high of 102. having seen lots of Foster this year I can say his yard per catch mark is totally due to the offense he only catches dump offs with little room to run now basically and not any more wheels and way less screens. that's something that can change pretty quickly though. the line is also down a bit this season.

    still when 2 guys are within 6 months in age and Foster has put up 20.6, 19.7, 18.3 the last 3 years in PPG while Rice has gone 13.4, 18.6, and 14.5 (I know situations change) I am going to need a bit more convincing to drop him 7 spots below Rice than you got tired of waiting on a vintage Foster game during a season he is the leading fantasy scorer among RBs

    Foster's topped 150 yards once this season. He did it 10 times in 2011, and 6 times in 2010. He's averaging 10 receiving yards per game and hasn't topped 40 yards once despite putting up 15 such games in his career.

    These guys would rather have Stewart than foster lol

    If I'd rather have Stewart than Foster, I would have ranked Stewart over Foster.

    points today are not inherently more valuable than points tomorrow

    Actually they are. The only points that matter for your FF team are the points they will score in the next game. You can always trade for, draft pick up players to score you points next season or in future seasons.

    I do not mean to say that the value of a player being able to repeat their performance over a period of time is not also valuable, it certainly is very valuable, that is why you rank Rice over Doug Martin, a position that for the most part I agree with btw but points scored in 2015 are not equal to points in 2012 or 2013 which are currently at a premium.

    If your team is not contending for a title in 2012 then you should shift gears as points in 2012 have no real value to your ability to win a championship. But when you are trading for the future you should still be demanding premium on current performance.

    Strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. Again, hyperbolic discounting. If you could trade points today for points tomorrow at a 10% premium, and you simply did that over and over, you would eventually own every single point in the entire league. By sacrificing a few titles early on, you would build an unstoppable juggernaut that would win every single game in perpetuity for the duration of the league's existence. If you could trade a pick today for an equal pick next year and a lesser pick this year, and you did that with every pick you owned, eventually you would wind up owning every single draft pick your league awarded for the remainder of the league's existence. Look at New England trading current picks for future picks, and look at Washington trading future picks for current picks, and go look back over the last decade and tell me which strategy has paid greater dividends.

    Again, there are perfectly valid reasons why one would value the present over the future. If your league is unstable and likely to fold, then the future is uncertain and should be discounted. If your team is making a run right now, then you should place a slight (but not huge) premium on present production. Despite the existence of scenarios where one or the other should be discounted, though, neither present points nor future points are inherently more valuable than the other.

  8. For how long will people be continuing to rank Mathews a top 10 back? He's got a whopping 5 games with 100 rushing yards in his career (and none this year). I just don't understand the love for him.

    You may be a hawk, but I'm a rabid giraffe. Tall enough to see over the trees, rabid enough to go for the jugular. And us rabid giraffes love us whatever talented young #1 backs we can find in such a weak RB crop as this.

    You are going to catch hell for foster rank i think, but i agree.Wilson, Miller most glaring for me.

    A month ago, I would have had Foster much higher. His sudden decline in effectiveness is worrisome.
    he had a bad game vs Jacksonville at 3.2 YPC but is a 3.5 YPC in the rain on a chewed up field at the Bears really a ineffective game? Kubiak called it the best game he'd ever seen Foster play. his other two games in the past month are 4.6 vs Buffalo and 5.1 vs Detroit. he might look a tad less explosive but I think it's a over reaction to drop him a lot for essentially a bad game
    4.0 ypc behind a strong line on the season. Dramatic drop in number of receptions, and fewer than 5 yards per reception. This isn't a "just this last month" thing, this is a "all season long" thing. I've been waiting 11 weeks for him to show me a vintage Foster game. I grow tired of waiting.
  9. I'm a Pierre Thomas owner and I couldn't put him at #36. He is unstartable now and he is no spring chicken. Are you assuming he is playing somewhere else next year? Rather take a chance on guys like Turbin, Vereen, Pead

    It's a high upside pick. Thomas is a very talented runner. If he ever gets a go-to job, he'll beast it. If not... eh, he's only 36th. Think of him as a destitute man's Jonathan Stewart.

    Just for funsies:1. Rice2. Richardson3. Peterson4. McCoy5. Martin6. Charles7. Spiller8. Foster9. Forte10. Mathews11. Lynch12. Morris13. McFadden14. Stewart15. Ridley16. Murray17. Chris Johnson18. Bradshaw19. Wilson20. Leshoure21. Reginald Bush22. Hunter23. Ingram24. Mendenhall25. Hillman26. Ben Tate27. Gore28. Sproles29. Richardson30. Lamar Miller31. SJax32. Law Firm33. FJax34. Ivory35. Dwyer36. Pierre ThomasThat's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?

    SSOG, you have Stewart at 14 and Wilson at 18. So, if you were a Bradshaw and Stewart owner, would you trade Stewart for Wilson? And if so, would it be fair to expect a second round pick in addition to Wilson? How much does the presence of Brown downgrade Wilson's future value? I like Wilson but it seems like it takes a long time for a RB to earn a featured role in the NYG backfield--whether it is Tiki, Jacobs, Bradshaw, or now Wilson. I also am starting to wonder if the situation in NYG is as good as it once was for Rbs. On the other hand, we know that the current situation in CAR is horrible.
    I don't believe in handcuffing unless I'm desperately shallow at RB, and don't believe Wilson is a true handcuff for Bradshaw, anyway. There's no way I'd trade the higher-ranked player for the lower, and a 2nd is nowhere near enough to bridge that gap for me.

    I have no problems with the rankings as a draft point of view but these rankings have absolutely no correlation in terms of dynasty trading. I wouldn't trade for half of the guys in the top 25 at these spots. Value is way overrated. I'd rather own frank gore and have a chance at winning now than pay a premium for a player like Stewart or Wilson. Planning for the future is way overrated as well since a team can be turned on a year to year basis. I'll stick with my AP and try to win it all every year while owners trade for younger guys.

    My rankings aren't meant to be a bellwether for the market. I suspect a lot of people wouldn't make a lot of trades that these rankings would suggest are fair. I would make those trades, though, and in an instance where I wouldn't make that trade, my rankings are off and I need to adjust them. I disagree that one should completely disregard the future. Value today is the same as value tomorrow. There are other factors that can cause one to prioritize the present or the future (league instability leads to prioritizing the present, injuries lead to prioritizing the future, etc), but points today are not inherently more valuable than points tomorrow, and acting otherwise is committing a logical fallacy called hyperbolic discounting. As an illustration, imagine if you had a policy of buying talented players every time they were lost to season-ending injury. In general, this would make it more difficult to win in any given year, since you're always sacrificing present value while getting no present return... But in the long run, imagine how many titles you'd win after buying guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, Peterson, Charles, Welker, and VJax for pennies on the dollar because your leaguemates were all guilty of hyperbolic discounting.
  10. well, CRAP. I guess I'm rolling with Rivers then, and Kaep will sit the bench, since I have no clue if he's playing. Thanks Harbaugh.

    my exact situation. they both play in the late afternoon so i am hoping we hear something closer to gametime. do you think we know the starter an hour or so before the game?
    Are you hoping that SI might release a report saying who the starter is, or that a SF player might come out and just tell us who'll be starting? Because... um... Both of those things already happened. What more would you need in order to believe Kaep is the starter?
    i guess just something official. at this point it would be shocking if Smith started but its still possible. how confident should one feel that kap is starting? maybe Smith is not cleared today and thats the end of it
    Pretty confident. Kaep is a top 10 option this week.
  11. well, CRAP. I guess I'm rolling with Rivers then, and Kaep will sit the bench, since I have no clue if he's playing. Thanks Harbaugh.

    my exact situation. they both play in the late afternoon so i am hoping we hear something closer to gametime. do you think we know the starter an hour or so before the game?
    Are you hoping that SI might release a report saying who the starter is, or that a SF player might come out and just tell us who'll be starting? Because... um... Both of those things already happened. What more would you need in order to believe Kaep is the starter?
    So Harbaugh is just screwing with us? The Head Coach said he hasn't named a starter.
    Look at it from his perspective. He has nothing to gain from naming the starter. Why would he? It's the same reason why coaches never announce who on the injury report will be playing and who will be out until an hour before kickoff, even if one guy has missed every practice and the other hasn't missed one. It's the same reason why he didn't name Kaep the starter until an hour before kickoff last week. Harbaugh isn't screwing with us- he doesn't even care about us. He's trying to force NO to prepare for two QBs.
  12. well, CRAP. I guess I'm rolling with Rivers then, and Kaep will sit the bench, since I have no clue if he's playing. Thanks Harbaugh.

    my exact situation. they both play in the late afternoon so i am hoping we hear something closer to gametime. do you think we know the starter an hour or so before the game?
    Are you hoping that SI might release a report saying who the starter is, or that a SF player might come out and just tell us who'll be starting? Because... um... Both of those things already happened. What more would you need in order to believe Kaep is the starter?
  13. I don't rank backs based on what most of their owners think. Find a Foster owner that would trade him straight up for Charles- they're every bit as extinct, but you don't seem to mind those rankings. I'm a Rice owner who has been offered both Richardson and Martin, and has declined both times. Because I rank Rice over Richardson and Martin.

    I just don't see how Rice has more value. Martin is outscoring him. Richardson is close. Both guys have similar short term outlooks and superior long term potential. I own all three in various leagues and would give up Rice for either without much hesitation. He turns 26 early in the offseason and will have 1200+ career carries by then. He also carried the ball a ton in college. Lots of tread off the tires already. He is no longer a guy that I'd take in the top 10 of a PPR startup, as there are younger backs with the same skill set and too many good players at the other positions.
    Over time, I've moved away from a "tread on the tires" mindset. Age is important. Career workload is not. In fact, backs with a high workload early are more likely to maintain that high workload late in their careers, too. What Rice has over Martin is a track record. What Rice has over Richardson is a legit NFL franchise. You might value a track record and a supporting cast less than I do. That's your prerogative. I don't. That's my prerogative. It's good to get sane and rational people with different opinions, because otherwise you wind up with an echo chamber effect. And it's not like my opinion is really all that out there- Couch Potato has Rice over Martin. Bloom has Rice over both. On a scale of one to insane, this isn't "Arian Foster outside the top 10".
  14. No Cards RBs in the top 36? I know they are forgettable, but they belong in there somewhere.

    Not until they demonstrate some sort of desire to field an NFL-caliber offensive line. I'm also not yet convinced that anyone on that roster is more than a short-term stopgap.
    I'm fine discounting Beanie and Williams for that reason, but to pass on them is just short sighted. They are both young talented backs with plenty of potential. And you're going to rank some low reward player like Law Firm over them? Just saying in a Dynasty startup draft, I'd draft a cards RB before anyone you have listed 30 and below.
    BJGE will give you a couple years of low-end rb2 production. That's more than I'd count on from Beanie or Williams. I'm not saying I want nothing to do with them, but you can only fit 36 RBs into the top 36. Give me someone like Miller or Dwyer over a mediocre back stuck on a franchise where even Larry Fitz can't produce.
  15. Just for funsies:1. Rice2. Richardson3. Peterson4. McCoy5. Martin6. Charles7. Spiller8. Foster9. Forte10. Mathews11. Lynch12. Morris13. McFadden14. Stewart15. Ridley16. Murray17. Chris Johnson18. Bradshaw19. Wilson20. Leshoure21. Reginald Bush22. Hunter23. Ingram24. Mendenhall25. Hillman26. Ben Tate27. Gore28. Sproles29. Richardson30. Lamar Miller31. SJax32. Law Firm33. FJax34. Ivory35. Dwyer36. Pierre ThomasThat's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?

    Find a Richardson or Martin owner who would move either of them for Rice today. I think they're an extinct species. I have Doug in a couple leagues and, while I know people always overrate flashy rookies, it's pretty tough for me to imagine moving him for any RB straight up besides Richardson. Even that would be tough given their current production. Martin is leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage and looks like an absolute demon out there. Some people will say he's not an elite talent. Bullocks. He is proving it on the field. And the irony of that criticism is that NONE of the guys widely regarded as top 5 dynasty RBs besides Peterson were ranked any higher coming out of college (Foster, McCoy, Rice). It's what you do on the field in the NFL that matters, and Martin is ripping it up. Complete three down back who can catch passes, hit big plays, and also run with power. In other words...$$$. Not really feeling the ranks for Forte, Foster, or McFadden (SHOCKER). Just feels like Forte is starting to lose something. YPC is still decent though. McFadden is just a name at this point. He couldn't produce in the same situation where Marcel Reece is starring. Nuff said. I have watched two Skins games in the last month and Morris is a lot better than I initially gave him credit for. That doesn't make him a great back though. The NFL is littered with guys who could produce if they were given 20+ touches every week. Morris just happens to be one of the guys getting the chance. He is a good fit for the one cut running scheme. Good power and runs well north-south. Lacks agility and isn't a threat in space though, so he'll never be a pass catcher. I would say he's a decent RB2 for now and the future, but not a guy I'd really be looking to build around or count on. I think Daniel Thomas is a better running back than Lamar Miller, who I've cooled on a bit. Evidently the Dolphins coaches agree, at least for now. Can't really argue with the Spiller or Charles rankings, though I'll always be inclined to let other owners monopolize the 195 scat backs. Dwyer could be a nice buy at that ranking. I've picked him up in two leagues for 2nd round rookie picks. Like that price given what he's shown this season and the fact that he's a FA. I would say Dwyer, Bryce Brown, Kendall Hunter, Daryl Richardson, David Wilson, and Bernard Pierce are great names to take a punt on. The problem with some of those guys like Hunter and Wilson is that the guy who owns them might already be a true believer, meaning you'll have to pay an exaggerated price tag. I know that Hunter is a guy who has already been traded for in most of my leagues by people who are assuming that he'll take the next step. You may get a better price for Dwyer, Pierce, or Richardson since they haven't had as many carries.
    I don't rank backs based on what most of their owners think. Find a Foster owner that would trade him straight up for Charles- they're every bit as extinct, but you don't seem to mind those rankings. I'm a Rice owner who has been offered both Richardson and Martin, and has declined both times. Because I rank Rice over Richardson and Martin. Morris isn't a guy I'd ordinarily want to build around, either, but the problem with top 12 rankings is that there are always 12 RBs in them. In most years, he'd be closer to 16. This year, as young as he is, as well as he is producing, and as secure as his job is... He makes it into the top 12. I could be swayed on Thomas over Miller. Haven't seen enough of either recently, so I'm still relying a lot on first impressions.
  16. No Cards RBs in the top 36? I know they are forgettable, but they belong in there somewhere.

    Not until they demonstrate some sort of desire to field an NFL-caliber offensive line. I'm also not yet convinced that anyone on that roster is more than a short-term stopgap. Edit: no Falcons, Packers, Colts, or Jets RBs, either. Although the Jets was an oversight- Bilal Powell probably belongs somewhere in there. Maybe put him around 30, right ahead of Miller.

    I know Peterson's great and all but there's no way I can put a 28 1/2 yo rb next season that high in dynasty rankings.

    It's not just any RB. It's one of the best RBs of all time having a career year. He's only going to get healthier. Some humans have better genes, age better, heal faster. I'm willing to gamble on Peterson being effective into his 30s, and even if not, I'll take the 400 VBD he's going to rack up over the next 2.5 years as a consolation prize. And, as I keep saying... This is a ludicrously weak RB crop.

    Just for funsies:1. Rice2. Richardson3. Peterson4. McCoy5. Martin6. Charles7. Spiller8. Foster9. Forte10. Mathews11. Lynch12. Morris13. McFadden14. Stewart15. Ridley16. Murray17. Chris Johnson18. Bradshaw19. Wilson20. Leshoure21. Reginald Bush22. Hunter23. Ingram24. Mendenhall25. Hillman26. Ben Tate27. Gore28. Sproles29. Richardson30. Lamar Miller31. SJax32. Law Firm33. FJax34. Ivory35. Dwyer36. Pierre ThomasThat's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?

    No MJD?
    Oversight. Pop him at 18, right behind Johnson.
  17. You are going to catch hell for foster rank i think, but i agree.Wilson, Miller most glaring for me.

    A month ago, I would have had Foster much higher. His sudden decline in effectiveness is worrisome. Wilson and Miller are guys who are out of sight, out of mind. Guys like them make for good buy lows- think Rice, McCoy, and Charles. I don't think they're as good as any of those guys, but in a weak RB crop, I think they're smart gambles.
  18. Just for funsies:

    1. Rice

    2. Richardson

    3. Peterson

    4. McCoy

    5. Martin

    6. Charles

    7. Spiller

    8. Foster

    9. Forte

    10. Mathews

    11. Lynch

    12. Morris

    13. McFadden

    14. Stewart

    15. Ridley

    16. Murray

    17. Chris Johnson

    18. Bradshaw

    19. Wilson

    20. Leshoure

    21. Reginald Bush

    22. Hunter

    23. Ingram

    24. Mendenhall

    25. Hillman

    26. Ben Tate

    27. Gore

    28. Sproles

    29. Richardson

    30. Lamar Miller

    31. SJax

    32. Law Firm

    33. FJax

    34. Ivory

    35. Dwyer

    36. Pierre Thomas

    That's a rough first pass, and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet. Anything stand out as particularly glaring?

  19. . Smith essentially only came back on a 1-year deal. The mentally fragile Smith has responded this year with 8 YPA and a triple digit QB rating.

    Yea while leading an offense that I think was 29th or 30th in net passing yards per game and barely cracking 200 yards a game.

    Smith is basically performing like he did last season. You know the season he had and entered FA and no one wanted him because he's a game manager.

    This current 49'er reminded me so much of the mid to late 90's Steeler's teams. Great D, one of the best OL's in the league, strong running game. Everything in place except you knew when the playoffs started every team they faced would have a superior QB. They got just enough of a mediocre performance from the likes of Kordell and O'Donell that they never properly addressed the one position on that team that constantly held them back and that was in an era when QB's were not as key as they are today. The 49'ers were headed down this same path and what's more is they knew it. That's why they pursued Peyton and that's why they are going to give CP a chance.

    I'm not saying Smith isn't a game manager, or that Kaep isn't an upgrade. I'm saying it's stupid to insinuate his confidence will be shaken and his performance will suffer if he's called on again. As you point out, last offseason Harbaugh basically bought a billboard outside of the team's facilities that read "Dear Alex, you're our third choice and we desperately hope we aren't forced to go into another season with you as the starter". And as you point out, Alex Smith is performing exactly the same as he was before Harbaugh fed him that giant turd sandwich. His confidence wasn't shaken. His feelings weren't hurt. He didn't fall into a desperate shame spiral and develop a heroin habit. He's performing exactly the same, or maybe a little bit better. So suggesting that benching him for Kaep will somehow deal a deathblow to his poor fragile little psyche is certifiable. Smith knows he's a fallback option, and it hasn't affected him to date. So it's not like he's suddenly learning he's the fallback option, and that this is going to suddenly send him down the tubes. Alex is a rock. You might as well see what you have in Kaep, and if you discover he's not ready yet, good old reliable Alex Smith will still be there to pick up the pieces. San Fran has nothing to lose by giving Kaep an audition.
  20. Seattle fan here.I'm not happy about this. I would much rather face Smith at the end of this season with a playoff spot on the line.

    I love it as a hawks fan for a few reasons....1) We will get enough game film to plan for him2) If he falls on his face it will cause turmoil. 3) Smith is fragile....this kills him mentally.
    #3 is insane. Harbaugh hung a giant flashing sign this offseason that said "we don't want you". He went hard after Manning and let Smith get wined and dined by other teams in free agency. Smith essentially only came back on a 1-year deal. The mentally fragile Smith has responded this year with 8 YPA and a triple digit QB rating.
  21. It has me wondering, what is Kaep's upside?

    IMHO, ceiling is like Billy Volek, end of 2004. Relentless deep vertical strikes locking onto one receiver ( maybe Moss or Davis)Floor is Big Ben, average of 2004. Elusive game manager surrounded by a deep team that plays disciplined fundamentally sound football. The 49ers have a very good offensive line and probably the best guard tandem in the entire NFL ( Iupati and Boone) Unlike all the rookie QBs this year, Kapernick has a year of training under his belt. To his disadvantage, a lot of the other young QBs have had more time to see real action than him. He will have time to heave the rock. I think this becomes a two part deal. It's not just Kapernick - Hunter, Walker and Moss are all going to have to step up as receivers. Particularly Moss to pull coverage off of Davis. I think Walker is a very underrated potential weapon. Gore is winding down some, Hunter is going to have to play very well here down the stretch, the Niners are going to need him. Like Volek, if Kaepernick finds some burn, he's still a matchup play. IMHO, no matter how the numbers trend out even if he's shredding a defense, you still have to consider the defense. I don't believe his upside this year is matchup proof.
    I haven't followed him but isn't he also a running QB where you could count on rush yards each week too?
    Yes. He was basically Tim Tebow of the West in college. 4000 career rushing yards and 59 scores. Passed for 2000+ and rushed for 1000+ in 3 straight years. The third member of the 20/20 TD club with Tebow and Newton. Harbaugh was using Kaep as a gimmick/package QB even when Smith was starting.
  22. this seems pretty stupid after one good game. time will tell.

    Not really. Nothing makes this move permanent- if Kaepernick sucks, Smith is still on the roster ready to resume his duties. Don't try to tell me that this will rattle his confidence, because that ship has long sailed- 49er fans have been calling for his head for years, every major football analyst was labeling him one of the biggest busts ever and comparing him to David Carr, and he played with something crazy like 7 offensive coordinators in his first 7 years. Last year, he finally had a great season and led his team to the NFCCG, and Harbaugh rewarded him by going hard after Peyton Manning and letting Smith test the free agency waters. And Smith responded to that vote of absolutely no confidence by coming back and having another extremely solid season. At this point, being benched so the coaching staff can evaluate his backup is nothing Alex Smith isn't used to. And if the coaching staff, after giving Kaepernick an extended audition, decide that their best chance to win lies with Alex Smith... well, Alex Smith will be right there to step back in and provide the Niners with their best chance to win. Evaluating Kaepernick is a no-risk, no-downside move. While it doesn't provide a downside, it provides plenty of upside. I think we all agree that the Niners offense is potentially more explosive with Kaep taking snaps. Moreover, Kaep was drafted high to be the quarterback of the future (#36 overall), so at some point the coaching staff has to see what they have in him. Smith's deal is essentially a 1-year contract, so if they don't evaluate Kaep in live action, the Niners are essentially flying blind this offseason- do they let Smith go and roll with Kaep, or do they need to keep Smith around for another couple of seasons? At some point, the decision needs to be made. This is the perfect point- they've built up enough of a lead that they aren't risking a playoff spot (although they are risking seeding), Kaep already has a lot of goodwill from the fan base after last week's performance, Smith is still nominally recovering from an injury, Kaep can take some live bullets from playoff-caliber teams so Harbaugh can decide which way to go in the actual playoffs. Plus, it gives his opponents one more thing they have to prepare for. High upside move, little to no downside (Kaep can be replaced at any time, and at the very worst all you're risking is seeding), it seems to me like this is the only smart play available.
  23. Thoughts on Reggie Bush going forward, particularly for 2013 ... Obviously going to be very situationally dependent. Looked like he was in a great one this year, but it has diminished significantly ... Can he live up to SSOG's top 12ish ranking?

    I'm not doing the rankings for DR.net anymore. Personally, I'd probably put Bush in the 20-25 range right now. I've long been a hater, but he's looked like a completely different player the last year and a half. He's older, but I like him as a nice high-upside gamble in an exceptionally weak RB crop.
  24. I don't get the hate. Gronk was on the sidelines for the TD drive. He came back in for the XP. People saying he shouldn't have... How many players can you name that have gotten hurt on XPs? And more importantly, how many teams do you think have 1st and 2nd team XP squads? It's not like you just start sending in the reserve XP squad once you're ahead by a certain amount.

    Gronk's injury is unfortunate. I own him in more leagues than not, and this is a blow. I'm not going to start mindlessly lashing out at everyone involved about it, though. It's a freak injury. There's no more blame to be assigned than if he'd gotten hurt on a game-winning kneel down.

  25. I'm a big Pats fan and this is totally inexcusable. If Belichek treated himself as if he were one of his players, he'd fire himself on Monday. As coach of the team you completely screwed the entire team's season with horrible horrible decision making. Thanks Coach. In the future, when you say "Do your job", look in the fucccing mirror first.

    Their season will be fine. They'll walk into the playoffs, Gronk or no Gronk, and then he'll be back by the time the games are mattering again.
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