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Dan Hindery

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Everything posted by Dan Hindery

  1. I'm going to DM you with the exact details of how it is getting calculated to get some more in-depth feedback.
  2. Gotcha, just ran with flex and I got 50.5 for 2-PPR and 32.6 for 1-PPR. 1.54X multiplier. Not that far off where you're at. I'm gettin 19 TEs between starters, flex, and a 2-player buffer that I use.
  3. I am not sure if it is just one outlier year or what the difference is. My method is almost identical to yours for figuring out PPG above replacement for 2021 using FBG Consensus Projections. Using normal PPR, I get 32.6 total PPG above replacement for all TE. (multiply by games played for VBD) Using 2 PPR for TE, I get 47.4 PPG above replacement for all TE. That's almost exactly what by backward looking weekly method got me in terms of a multiplier. If you have the time, I am curious what you get using your method for the FBG 2021 projections.
  4. The uniformity within position is something I'm still working through. It is adjusting on a positional level. I am not sure how you are calculating the 2.2 multiplier. I am using weekly stats from the last four seasons (68 weeks) and comparing weekly scores to the replacement level scoring that week. Then determining how the change in scoring/lineup/league size impacts the relative value of each position based upon those weekly results.
  5. Edit: All updated. Rookie pick values seem to be working. Only one trade value column that adjusts for the timeframe. switched up the colors. https://danhi.shinyapps.io/dynasty-trade-value2/
  6. And if it is not clear the way it is now, should I make the slider just adjust the trade value column directly and completely get rid of the time adjusted trade value column? Edit: I think I am just going to go ahead and do this. It is probably too confusing currently.
  7. The change would be in the far right column with the timeframe adjustment. Are you looking at that or the trade value column?
  8. Thanks for the feedback! Anyone want to test version 2.0 before I put it up on FBG? https://danhi.shinyapps.io/dynasty-trade-value2/ I incorporated the idea of win now versus future value and added a column that calculates 2021 value separately based on the league/scoring settings and using the FBG consensus projections. Let me know what you guys think. Also working on a trade calculator with rookie picks included. Someone mentioned devy players, that may be possible but probably not in the next few weeks.
  9. This is a 12-team PPR league 1/2/3/1 with 2 flex. (1.5 PPR for TE) Going into year 7. 100% payouts (minus MFL). $80 entry fee Rules here: https://www68.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=18333&O=26 Open Roster highlights: All 2021 Rookie picks (1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08) and all future rookie picks QB: Burrow, Stafford RB: Dobbins, CEH, Mattison, Singletary WR: Allen Robinson, K Golladay, R Woods, O Beckham, Julio Jones, Rondale Moore, Corey Davis TE: Mark Andrews Please note: This is a shallow devy league with 12 college players drafted each year alongside the rookies in the rookie draft. So when you are on the clock in the rookie draft, it is your choice between drafting your top rookie or your top devy. 12th devy usually goes off the board in the early 3rd round, at which point it is rookies only the rest of the draft. If interested, just reply here or DM me, thanks.
  10. I have some opinions (https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article-list.php?author=157&ref=s). Not going to max enter the $4 but will have ~100 entries. Wish I had more clarity on whether this AZ-San Fran goes off as planned (air quality). Was hoping to be pretty heavy on the Cardinals passing game as one of my contrarian stands (I like a lot of the chalk) but might not get the chance. Built my lineups before Evans and Golladay were listed doubtful. Wasn't on either very much so easy to swap them out of the couple lineups but still need to decide if I want to move to add more shares of guys like Godwin, Hockenson, Marv Jones, etc.
  11. Agree with this. Potential 3-down backs are a rarer commodity right now. Big wave of good young WRs hitting the league in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is going to flood the market to some extent.
  12. Yeah, I said in the post it is superflex. I mostly ignore QBs in non-superflex. I'm also an OSU fan and agree on Teague, plus the achilles injury is worrisome. Fleming has the measureables and slightly more upside so I ranked him higher but I actually like Smith-Njigba a little better. I'm off of Bateman at his current prices. I think he's fine but looks more like an NFL 2nd rounder than an elite top of the draft guy. Could be wrong on that for sure but I think the offense inflates WR production and we've seen Corey Davis out of same system bust and Tyler Johnson was predictably overrated at this time last year.
  13. I'm with you on Freiermuth in TE premium leagues. Just drafted him about 2 hours ago in this combined rookie/devy draft. Didn't have him too much higher because these are specific to normal PPR and the TE is pretty devalued when only 12 are starting each week. I have to watch more Jordan. I know people like him but he has never really leapt out to me when watching Miami and he's not a guy I've been targeting.
  14. I am mostly on board with the consensus this year. Some areas where I differ a bit: -Not fully sold on Seth Williams. Feels like a Bryan Edwards or Kelvin Harmon where he won't be drafted as highly as expected, so he'll be cheaper to acquire next year. -Outside of the top three backs, I have a hard time using a premium pick on an RB. I like Breece Hall the best after the big three but have been hitting that tier of wide receivers with DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, etc. instead. -I'm willing to take a swing on Trey Lance relatively early given his athleticism and rushing upside. -I like the incoming freshman QB class with Uigalelei, Young, and Stroud more than average. Don't typically like drafting freshmen QBs but think those top three have enough going for them that I'll roll the dice in deeper Superflex drafts. I like those guys better than Rattler who is going a good bit earlier. -Kyle Pitts seems like the rare TE prospect worth taking a swing on even in shallower leagues. Really impressed with what I saw of him last season.
  15. Hey guys, will not be writing the full article this year. Typically spent a good amount of time following spring games and reports from practices to put the list together and without that this year, didn't feel like I added enough value to write a full article. That being said, here is my personal top 100 for Superflex leagues. If anyone has any questions or has a good faith critique, would love to talk about it: 1...Trevor Lawrence 2…Justin Fields 3…JaMarr Chase 4…Travis Etienne 5…Chuba Hubbard 6…Najee Harris 7…Justyn Ross 8…Jaylen Waddle 9…Rondale Moore 10…Rashod Bateman 11…George Pickens 12…DeVonta Smith 13…Garrett Wilson 14…Trey Lance 15…Kyle Pitts 16…Sam Howell 17…Breece Hall 18…Tamorrion Terry 19…Max Borghi 20…Chris Olave 21…Seth Williams 22…DJ Uiagalelei 23…Bryce Young 24…Zamir White 25…Kylin Hill 26…Jamie Newman 27…Sage Surratt 28…Joe Ngata 29…Terrace Marshall 30…Kedon Slovis 31…Bijan Robinson 32…Amon-Ra St. Brown 33…Spencer Rattler 34…Tylan Wallace 35…Brock Purdy 36…Julian Fleming 37…David Bell 38…Journey Brown 39…Jaxon Smith-Njigba 40…Trey Sanders 41…Jadon Haselwood 42…C.J. Verdell 43…Jerrion Ealy 44…D.J. Williams 45…Jayden Daniels 46…Pat Freiermuth 47…CJ Stroud 48…Brevin Jordan 49…Isaiah Spiller 50…Kenneth Gainwell 51…DeMarkcus Bowman 52…John Emery 53…Keaontay Ingram 54…Trey Sermon 55…Master Teague 56…Zach Charbonnet 57…Bo Nix 58…Theo Wease 59…Jordan Whittington 60…Kendall Milton 61…Pooka Williams 62…Tyrion Davis-Price 63…Kayshon Boutte 64…Javian Hawkins 65…Drake London 66…Arik Gilbert 67…Noah Cain 68…Wandale Robinson 69…Re’Mahn Davis 70…Frank Ladson 71…Rakim Jarrett 72…Elijah Moore 73…MarShawn Lloyd 74…Tutu Atwell 75…Dyami Brown 76…Jeremy Ruckert 77…Nico Collins 78…James Cook 79…Dameon Pierce 80…Rakeem Boyd 81…Eric Gray 82…Demond Demas 83…Zachary Evans 84…Sam Ehlinger 85…Dameon Pierce 86…DaMonte Coxie 87…Charlie Kolar 88…Jacob Copeland 89…John Metchie 90…Jameson Williams 91…Jalen Wydmeyer 92…Kennedy Brooks 93…Dazz Newsome 94…Demond Demas 95…CJ Johnson 96…Tyler Vaughns 97…George Holani 98…Baylor Cupp 99…Trey Knox 100…Jhamon Ausbon @Skeletore Eh @krsone21
  16. Agree with this. I think Burrow goes 1 to Cincy. Then Young, Herbert, and Tua in some order between 2 and 4. There's too many teams in need of a QB near the top of the draft and those top QBs have enough positive attributes that when all is said and done, Tua/Herbert end up ahead of Jeff Okudah, Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons, etc.
  17. Every situation is unique and I also think the number of games for the change in backup quality also matters. But in general, I do think a better backup will siphon off a few touches from the starter compared to a weak backup. In Cincinnati, we could see something like 20 touches per game for Mixon and 10 for Bernard. If Bernard had a minor injury and was going to miss a few games, I could see Mixon bumping up to 25 touches and only 5 touches per game for Trayveon Williams in place of Bernard. If Bernard was out for the season, then I don't think they would bump MIxon up to 25 long-term. Maybe 22-23 and they'd have to live with what Williams gives them on 7-8 touches per game.
  18. Great strategy. Those 2nds are going to be more valuable than normal, especially in superflex.
  19. In my experience, QBs do end up being very valuable in 16-team super flex. Big difference even compared to a 12 or 14 team superflex leagues because the supply and demand dynamic on the trade market is majorly impacted. There will end up being a few teams by next season who will be stuck with only one starter. And very few teams with 3. And some of those with 3, it might be like Drew Brees or somebody as one of them, so they won't want to move their #3 and hurt themselves long term. So yeah, I think you'd do well to snag one at the 4/5 turn if there is somebody decent and relatively young still available.
  20. He's been my go-to pick as my TE3 in the 18th round of best ball drafts. His ADP is TE37 right now on DRAFT, where around 32 or so are taken in the average 12-team league. I do think he'll finish quite a bit higher than TE37 but yeah, I think it comes down to time and place and knowing the relative value of TE in your league. I wouldn't take him in leagues where only 20 TEs are drafted or anything. TE targets should go down some but I don't think Oakland has much behind AB and Tyrell Williams. The other guys they added are late-round rookies or journeymen types. Admittedly, the same could be said of Waller. However, Gruden hasn't been raving about any of those other guys the way he has Waller. I wrote Waller's FBG profile this year and I'll re-post this part of it: "Since the time he's walked in here, he's been one of the most impressive guys on our team," Gruden said. "He learns fast. He is fast. He's extremely talented. I think he's going to be one of the best-kept secrets in the league." http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=WallDa00&ref=s
  21. I like grabbing a high-floor veteran like Rivers or Roethlisberger and then coming back with Kyler Murray as a high-upside QB2. I 'd bet the house that Murray is going to move up from QB21 by August though...
  22. One of the two teams is taken. One more and we can do a quick dispersal and then the rookie draft.
  23. Looking for two replacement owners. You can see the two open teams here: http://www68.myfantasyleague.com/2019/options?L=18333&O=07 Open Team 1 has the 1.02 Open Team 2 has the 1.04 Rookie draft will start as soon as the two teams are filled. It is a shallow devy league, with 12 devys allowed to be taken in the rookie draft. So you have the choice of a devy or rookie when on the clock (until the 12th devy is taken). This league is $80 per year with 100% payouts (minus MFL). These two teams will need some work, so price for year 1 is reduced 75% all the way down to $20. Please respond here or DM me if you are interested or have any questions. The two teams are pretty even. We can either have 2 owners take them over directly or we can put together a dispersal draft. Up to the interested parties.
  24. Solid take. I can see it either way and kind of depends on the situation and how your league values QBs. I'd take Kyler Murray ahead of Lawrence. You've also got young guys like Goff who are talented and in ideal spots, so I don't think I'd rate him top 5 at this point but I could see top 10. Also, I'm a huge OSU fan and grad so Wilson's listing was just a non-updated cell in my spreadsheet from when I had the top prospects listed by state. Correction made on that. I like that you're so high on Justin Fields and hope you're right about how good he will be. I'm pretty excited for him but he looked kind of shaky in the spring game so I'm ranking him somewhat conservatively for now. I can't rank him top 5 ahead of somebody like Justyn Ross who showed so much as a true frosh.
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