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John Mamula

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About John Mamula

  • Birthday 07/05/1978

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    Pittsburgh, PA

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  1. Solid. You might want to check out Star Wars while you're at it.
  2. Tulsa has back to back 10+ win seasons and they probably will get 9 or 10 wins this year also. rofl
  3. You do a pirouette and walk into them?*moonwalk away.
  4. XBox 360s suck. Reason why they're called 360s is that when you see one you turn 360 degrees and walk away.
  5. Haven't been able to get through the whole thread yet, but I have been in the process of starting up a new company over the last couple months. Not sure if it is going to be a full time gig or not, but I am acting like it will eventually be. When I am not reading this on my blackberry in my broker class I will add some thoughts.
  6. I'll defer to bagger and LHUCKS on this one. They're the PHX real estate guys.Right now, yes you are seeing 1995 prices if you want to sell in many areas of Phoenix. 65% of homes bought right now off resale listings are foreclosures, and closer to 75% if you get into the outlying areas. So any "conventional" sale of a normal home owner to a buyer is dead because you are competing with foreclosures. Many banks have been instructed to take back as much as they can and liquidate to raise capital. This means they are selling homes at a discount of their loan basis pressuring prices down to levels not seen since the 1990s. For your zip code you have probably lost 30% of value in the last year alone, but again that is basing it off of foreclosures. This is not a normalization of the market, but it is the reality for the rest of 2009 and into 2010. Unfortunately the market can remain irrational longer than some people can stay solvent, only compounding the issue. For Phoenix, from a macro economic point of view we were very strong in 2006 through most of 2008 in terms of job growth, emplyoment rates, interest rates, etc. With employment growth and in migration growth going negative for the next year at least we now have an additional downward pressure on home pricing above and beyond the speculator inventory and sub prime / alternative loan inventory. Inventory is going to be coming on the market due to job loss. I have no idea what you bought it at or what Zillow says it is worth, but I would imagine given what you said it would sell for right around $200k? If you can sit tight, I would for at least another year to hopefully not compete with foreclosures. Unfortunately when I was discussing this issue with tGunZ two years ago I stated in my disbelief that if prices fell like gunz was saying, the entire banking system would be on the verge of collapse. Well here we all are, and there is still a process of deleveraging that needs to happen.
  7. Mr. Pickles sure seems to have gotten sassy in my absence. I think a sitcom is in order.
  8. that's nothing. my former boss, now current client was worth $500M in 2005. he will be declaring bankruptcy this year.lots of millionaires losing everything right now who made their fortunes during the r/e bust of the early 90s. now there's a lot of new people coming in who will become millionaires off of these misfortunes. the question is whether these new people will be more conservative near the peak and bank their cash or reinvest all the way through the cycle losing everything.Why do you think these guys lost so much? How did folks vested so heavily in the market not see the correction coming? Obviously they're crazy intelligent or else they wouldn't have been so successful early in the bubble. Do you think these guys got greedy, or lazy, or both? yeah, but most people's personal residence is the biggest investment they'll make in their entire lives. buying at the top of a bubble can wipe out years/decades of that investment. if you were to evaluate the ROI of buyers who buy the exact same property who bought at two different times (2006 vs. 2009), by 2020, you'll see a huge difference, in my opinion.losing 20-50% of equity in one's personal residence is nothing to sneeze at bagger, especially if you're making payments on that lost equity.a lot of people made all their money in r/e, thought they were smarter than others, had huge egos, were greedy, lost focus on risk mitigation, and thought that they could out maneuver the market. the majority also have a horrible understanding of capital markets and think that the availability of capital will always be there throughout all cycles.bottom line, most people that had a huge runup and lost it all hadn't gone through a cycle with their own money before. some may have done it with public companies, but it is a completely different beast when its your own money and liquidity is finite.on to your second point, you're right a loss of 20%-50% of equity is nothing to sneeze at. people that overpaid near the peak in temecula or other fringe areas in overheated r/e markets may be better off walking away from their home especially if they're in poor mortgages or have realized the area they are in is not a desirable long term area to live. there's no doubt that people that got sucked in at the peak are in a world of hurt, however in 10 years many will have likely recouped all of their losses and made a solid return their investment even from their horrendous initial basis, as long as you're in a fundamentally strong market like the sun belt or so cal.there's a mantra in r/e that you make your money on the buy, not on the sale, and is something i strongly believe in. you're right someone that buys in 2009 will do much much better than someone who bought in 2006. however, if that person who bought in 2006 can make the payments and love living in their home over the long run they will have significant equity in their house.my parents bought their home in 1978 in SoCal and still live in it. bought it for $90k, it is now worth in today's market of around $800k (down from $1.1M around the 2006 peak).this is the long run i am talking about.you're obviously doing your homework, more than most people do, so i think when you decide to buy you'll be in at a good basis.
  9. that's nothing. my former boss, now current client was worth $500M in 2005. he will be declaring bankruptcy this year.lots of millionaires losing everything right now who made their fortunes during the r/e bust of the early 90s. now there's a lot of new people coming in who will become millionaires off of these misfortunes. the question is whether these new people will be more conservative near the peak and bank their cash or reinvest all the way through the cycle losing everything.investments are so different than personal residences. investments in r/e you do need to time the market unless you're in a cash flowing rental. personal residences you just need to get into a place you can afford and ride the roller coaster as you'll go through 4-5 of these cycles in your adult home owning life.
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