Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

FreeBaGeL

Members
  • Posts

    22,509
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by FreeBaGeL

  1. To be fair, he was also dead last in yards per completion that year. 6.0ypa is just unfathomably bad for someone with a 60% completion percentage.
  2. Thanks, that makes a lot more sense.Other than the part about Renly not having a legitimate claim to the throne, I definitely hadn't gathered the rest of that from the show.
  3. Clearly I had some misconceptions or more likely ignorance as to what exactly Renly's "banner men" were.To those that explained it all, did you all read the books or did you gather it just from watching the show? I guess there was the one line where Stannis mocked Renly by saying that his men were just a bunch of thieves and traitors, but I don't know how I was supposed to gather all of that from just that line.I think this post that someone else made on another board kind of sums up what I was thinking better than I did. I suppose it's fair to say that it wasn't unexpected that magic would play a role in the series, and I don't mind that at all. I just hope they don't get carried away with it and have every problem be solvable via some previously unmentioned magical act out of thin air.
  4. Last night's episode felt kind of "cheap" to me, and was probably the first episode of the show that I didn't like. The shadow monster just waltzes in and takes out Renly and suddenly his entire army becomes loyal to their king's murderer? So if Dimitri Medvedev had Pres. Obama killed then suddenly the entire US military would fight for Russia? If I'm not mistaken Renly's army isn't just some army created with the sole purpose of taking the iron throne. Renly actually ruled over a land similar to how Ned Stark ruled Winterfell. Last I checked, when Ned Stark was killed the entire Northern army didn't suddenly pledge its allegiance to Joffrey, nor would they pledge it to Tywinn Lannister if he took out Robb Stark tomorrow. Surely there is some line of succession down there beyond "oh **** they killed our king let's just all fight for the bad guys instead". Same story with Danyreus. Her and her tiny band of misfits wander in to the richest guy in the world who has this uber ambition to rule and the money to create an army but is more than happy to just give it to someone else so he can play 2nd fiddle as the ruler's significant other rather than actually ruling himself? Meh. At least this is better than how Stannis gained his uber-army over night but it's still a stretch. I dunno, I really dislike Deus Ex Machina and this episode seems to have established that it's going to be a very major part of this series. Any character or nation can be at a complete disadvantage or in complete peril and have it completely solved/fixed in an instant via something just contrived out of thin air.
  5. I've listed 490 players, and they're all just opinions. No worries. I'll tell you what though, if last year I listed Newton at 2.1 what if someone said to me:"Not sure how anyone could rank Cam Newton, who has never thrown a pass in the NFL, over a guy like Player X who has proven that he can play in the NFL and at a high level. Player X is young and dynamic and should continue to improve at the NFL level. Newton could be great but he could also be the next Ryan Leaf. I mean no offense, just one mans opinion." Fast forward a year and you can't trade for Newton without it costing an arm and a leg. Had I listed him at 2.1 would I have been wrong? Let's call Player X Sam Bradford just to drive the point home even more
  6. Or 3 weeks in the early seasons when their bizarre schedule was something like new-new-rerun-new-rerun-rerun-new-new-rerun-rerun-rerun-new
  7. A year ago there were people making the same statement about him ever going to the playoffs.A few months ago there were plenty of people on here still saying that he was obviously not capable of winning a playoff game. It's not unreasonable to think that Tebow could continue to improve or land on a team that actually has a good defense (rather than one that just fools dolts into thinking they're good while still being in the bottom quarter of the league in points allowed).
  8. I discounted AJ, Roddy, and Welker more than most do. While 31 isn't old to the point of affecting performance yet, you'll be hard pressed to find many 34 year old WRs putting up starting lineup numbers. You state "solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1" but I can almost guarantee that won't be the case, and it's a lot more likely he's someone you'll be desperately trying to unload for cheap in 2 years. Whereas the cliff is after 31-32 for most RBs and FF owners are jumping ship at 29, the cliff is after 33-34 for WRs yet fantasy owners are in denial about it and get stuck with these guys when it's too late.There are exceptions one can point to, just as there are exceptions at RB, but they are indeed exceptions. Father time gets them all, and for WRs 34 is the late cutoff I use.I don't disagree with any point in particular but it's amazing how much perception changes in one year.Last offseason AJ was pretty much the consensus #1 dynasty WR. This year most have him around #10 because he's "old", even though he's only one year older.
  9. The problem with Tebow is that his upside is going to be limited by his situation. Even if we skip ahead and pretend that he is a really good passer, he's going to be limited by the staff running an offense straight out of the 1940's. The only way that staff is going to change is if Denver loses a lot, which Tebow would not survive. So either Tebow/Denver plays well and Tebow gets straddled into being a low-end QB1 by an overly conservative offensive gameplan or Tebow plays poorly and never gets another starting gig. That said, he was a low-end QB1 as a 1st year starter while running the most boring and conservative offense in the NFL this past year. That means there were 20+ teams running more QB FF friendly offenses that got fewer FF points out of their QB, which says something about how astronomically some people underrated rushing stats out of QBs in an FF setting.
  10. Foster was pretty well regarded among SEC pundits during his college career. I remember deciding during his junior year that he would end up on my dynasty team when he came out.
  11. Funny thing about the Jets, Chargers, and Raiders. They all would have made the playoffs if they'd beaten Denver with Tebow.The other funny thing about them is they were all considered good teams who were going to put Tebow in his place until they lost to him, at which point they instantly became schmucks that anyone can beat.It's not like it's unusual for a team to not rack up a bunch of wins against playoff teams. With the Broncos win over the Steelers this week it puts them right in the middle of the pack in good wins, really.New England hasn't beaten a team with a winning record all year and they got a first round bye.Atlanta has 1 win against a playoff team (Detroit)Houston has 2 (Pittsburgh and a 1-point win vs Cincy)NYG have 2 (New England and this week's game vs Atlanta)Cinci has 0Pitt has 2 (New England and Cinci)Detroit has 1 (Denver)Denver has 1 (Pittsburgh)
  12. Because it's faster to type and fits into sentences better than "guy who says Tebow is not a good QB".Don't take it as an insult.Though, to be fair, there are quite a few people in this thread that fall into the more traditional definition of the word "hater" even though I've never intentionally used it that way.
  13. People need to stop confusing the people supporting Tebow in this thread with the casual "omg Tebow best evah!!!" crowd. Stop getting into an argument with Maniacal Johnny Fratboy who thinks Tebow should be MVP at your house and posting your response in here to people that aren't making that argument. Tebow hasn't been an all-star this year, but he's played well in spurts and has far exceeded what the pundits thought he would ever do in his entire career, much less one year. The bottom line is that Tebow gets too much credit from the casual crowd and too little credit from the hardcore crowd. The analysts and message board all-stars do nothing but doubt and deflect credit. Comparing Tebow to guys like Sanchez, Dilfer, and Grossman is disingenious because those guys all played with top 2 defenses. People were drafting those defenses in the 5th-8th round of fantasy drafts and they were even better in real life than they were in fantasy. Denver's D has had some good games but overall they're 24th in the NFL in scoring defense. They've been a little bit better (22nd I believe) since Tebow took over but it's not like he inherited some great team that any horrible QB can win with. Unlike those other guys, we've seen this team with other QBs and they were much closer to finishing with the worst record in the league than they were to winning a playoff game. New England is constantly regarded as having an awful defense that they win in spite of, yet they've allowed 48 FEWER points than Denver, who has only won because of their defense. On what planet does that make sense? Denver does have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL but Tebow is a big contributor to that himself. If you take QB rushing yards out of the equation they're 10th. So you've got a team with the #24 defense and #10 rushing attack and that's a team that you can just plug "the worst quarterback since the invention of the facemask" into? I don't think so, nor do I think this Denver team is in any way comparable to a Jets team that was 1st and defense and 1st in rushing. Still, there's no doubt that Tebow has gotten a lot of help along the way. Yet even when he doesn't, he still isn't given credit for it. Every single analyst after last night's game was quick to pull out the "let's be fair here, this was a great TEAM win for the Broncos" card. Of all the games Denver has won this year, this was by far the least team oriented of all of them. Denver's defense gave up 23 points against a defensive football team that has struggled offensively in the last month. Only one team has scored enough points against Pittsburgh this year to beat them when giving up 23 points (Baltimore), and that team's RBs ran the ball for 170yds and 31 carries (5.5ypc). Denver's RBs last night contributed 72 yards on 23 carries (3.1ypc) with a crucial fumble thrown in for good measure. You don't give up 23 points against the Steelers and win. You definitely don't give up 23 points and have your RBs contribute 3.1ypc and 2 fumbles against the Steelers and win. Yet, that's exactly what the Broncos did. People keep saying this was a "team" win. You can argue that about past games, but how was this a team win? Tebow and Thomas played well. That's it. You can argue the offensive line as well if you want to get technical, but the bottom line is that the defense gave up too many points to beat Pittsburgh and the running game was ineffective other than when Tebow ran it himself. Tebow is not a great quarterback, but he played great last night. He and Thomas were the only ones on the team that did. If Big Ben had played the exact same game that Tebow did and won people would be clamoring over how he threw his team on his back and carried them to a win, and use it as an example of something that Tebow will never be able to do. Yet when Tebow does it, it's a good team victory. Heck, it already happened in Super Bowl 43 when Big Ben led Pitt to a victory with a mediocre point total against a bad defense and was given all the credit. Pittsburgh's defense gave up 16 net points in that game (23 points allowed, 7 points scored themselves on a defensive TD) which was the 2nd lowest total against Arizona all year, yet Big Ben takes the credit. Meanwhile, Denver beat Pittsburgh last night despite the defense giving up more points than Pitt has allowed in all but one game this season and it's a total team victory. It's unfathomable. I understand that it gets frustrating when the casual crowd attributes every good thing that happens in Denver to Tebow (it snowed today...TEBOW!!!), but it's equally as frustrating for us to see the know-it-all haters contrive their own realities and deflect all possible credit because they are so determined to convince themselves that their maniacal assertions of how historically awful Tebow would be haven't already been rendered completely invalid.
  14. He hasn't proven much of anything. He had a poor year overall. Only completed 46.5% of his passes for 6.38 yards per throw during the regular season. Those are among the worst numbers of any QB in the NFL. Bear in mind that he posted these poor numbers despite having minimal responsibility (he ranked dead last among NFL starters in pass attempts per game). Tim Tebow might become a good starter, but he did not have a good year. The stats don't lie.Is 6.38 ypa really that poor for a 1st year starter? Sam Bradford's was 6.0 last year and it was considered a phenomenal rookie year. Stafford's was 6.0, Peyton 6.5, Brady 6.9, Mcnabb 4.4, Brees 6.2, etc.And for kicks, Tebow's TD/INT ratio was ahead of all those guys and his QB rating was ahead of all except Brady.I know you've been harping on completion percentage a lot and I agree he'll need to get that up, but it seems a bit unfair to take that number at face value. Tebow throws an exhorbitant number of his balls downfield so you expect the competition percentage to at least be a bit lower. His yards per completion led the NFL this year.I think completion percentage is a bit overblown, especially by you. Who do you want, the guy that went 24/41 for 199yds with 0 TDs today or the guy who went 10/21 for 315yds and 2 TDs?The all-time leader in completion percentage in NFL history is Chad Pennington. Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Brian Griese, Marc Bulger, Shaun Hill, and David Garrard are all in the top 20. Even guys like Jason Campbell, Damon Huard, Chad Henne, Jon Kitna, Tim Couch, and David Carr aren't far behind that.I'm not sure why you've decided that completion percentage is among the two most important QB stats in the last few years (you use it in the Roethisberger argument as well). Almost half of the top 40 QBs in all-time completion percentage are journeymen/backups/garbage.
  15. From what I can tell, here's how it went down.Brady Quinn took 2 snaps with the first team offense in each practice this week, which apparently the backup QB has done for every Denver practice all season. Apparently PFT (and a lot of other people) didn't know they always did it and reported Quinn taking snaps with the 1st team offense in an intentionally vague manner to try and stir up controversy and drive traffic to their site. Simms actually laughed about it during the game, saying that he was at the practices and Quinn only took the same snaps in practice that he has all season.Meanwhile, there was a separate report from Jay Glazer that Quinn would be used in 3rd down passing situations and could come in full-time if Tebow struggled early. I have no idea where he got that info but he was probably just jumping on the bandwagon, as Denver had 3rd and long on each of the 1st two possessions and Quinn never so much as put on a helmet. That also means that the second part of his report (Tebow will be benched if he struggles early) was probably equally fabricated, but we'll never know.
  16. I love how Big Ben did the same thing like 6 times throughout the course of the game and every time the announcers blamed it on the collapsing pocket, but as soon as the same thing happened to Tebow it was all his fault.
  17. One thing is clear, it got to someone's head. I'm just not sure if it was Tebow or Fox. Fox is a compulsive over-reactor and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he told Tim after the Buffalo game "don't throw it unless the guy is absolutely wiiiiide open, otherwise just throw it away".Fox has taken being conservative to a level that is almost a caricature of the idea. Punting the ball on 4th and 7 with 2:30 left and 1 timeout is borderline throwing the game. At that point, a BEST CASE scenario is that you force a 3 and out and get the ball back with less than a minute, inside your own 20, with no timeouts while needing a touchdown. What kind of a coach realistically thinks that gives them a better chance of winning than picking up a 4th and 7? What's worse is that they had nothing to lose by going for it. A first down by KC ends the game either way so field position only matters in that it puts them in FG range, which would make a TD tie it instead or win it. I just can't even begin fathom how ridiculous it was to punt the ball there. It was a complete give-up. The only thing I can comprehend is that he either thought he had more timeouts, doesn't know how long the game clock is in the NFL, or he is really, really bad at math. Prior to the end of the game the Broncos threw 1 time on 1st and 10. Their offense is basically run up the middle over and over until we get into 3rd and long and then either run a QB draw or hope for a miracle. Tebow came in last year under a different regime and they let him throw the ball around and he did pretty well for a rookie. Then this season started up and he again threw the ball pretty solidly in the 2nd half of the San Diego game and the end of the Miami game. Then the Detroit game happened, and instead of chalking it up to a bad game for a young QB like every other coach in the world does with young QBs, Fox panicked and went into ultra conservative mode. Denver was winning and they were giving Tebow more and more opportunities, and then the Buffalo game happened and Fox once again went into ultra over-reaction mode. I've said since his time in Florida that Tebow's biggest hurdle in the NFL would be his weakness reading defenses, not any of the nonsense about his throwing motion. That is still the biggest thing holding him back, and this ultra conservative style of not throwing it to anyone unless they're wide open is not doing him any favors. Denver needs to drop the gimmicks and let Tebow be a normal QB with the understanding that there are going to be bumps along the way like there are for any QB. It's the same thing that I said about Reggie Bush for years (and looky looky, now that he's being used as a normal running back he's actually played very well). Maybe he will crash and burn, but at least then they'll know. The gimmicks just drag everyone along and set both Tebow and the franchise back. The only thing that Tebow has done consistently under Fox/McCoy is regress backwards. You don't have the defense to win every game 10-7 so let Tebow be a quarterback and take his lumps while actually learning, rather than take his lumps while handing the ball off or throwing it out of bounds when his receiver has a small step on the guy. I've got no idea why people think Mike McCoy is some great offensive coordinator. It's just more NFL groupthink garbage. People give him credit for integrating Tebow's strengths like the read-option but that's a pretty simple play that was already being run in the NFL and that they run what, like 3-4 times a game? Their "option" offense is nothing more than a standard NFL offense that is absurdly run heavy. They're not running tricky running plays, they're running the same running plays that every NFL team does with the option read thrown in a couple of times a game. Further, other than Thomas the receivers all have horrific ball skills (is no one teaching these guys how to use their hands rather than their bodies?), and they quit on plays (probably because they don't expect to ever actually be thrown to). Several times in the KC game receivers quit on their routes just as the ball was being thrown. Once was Decker (though he was doubled anyway and wouldn't have come down with the ball). The other was Willis on the sidelines towards the end of the game on what would have been a huge play. It's like no one is coaching these guys and there's no accountability. I really think that Tebow could have been a good quarterback with McDaniels because McDaniels' offense limits the necessity of being good at reading the field (which Tebow is not). He clearly has a weakness reading the field beyond what other QBs do but when you put him in an offense that makes those reads for him, his scrambling/rushing ability and playmaking ability more than make up for it. The current offense seems more designed to limit the QB as much as possible and let everyone else do most of the legwork. The problem is that "everyone else" mostly sucks on this awful team anyway so even if you don't believe in Tebow you may as well see what he can do so you can either be done with it or see if he can get better at reading defenses when he's actually given the opportunity to do it.
  18. I'd like to be on the board of the Eric Decker Hate Club. The guy's a joke. He plays like a woman's private part. There are some people I love watching play and some I hate. Decker is at the top of the latter's list.Funny; he was lighting it up when Orton was in there.I didn't know a quarterback change was an excuse for being terrible. Lighting it up? Hardly. Plus, Thomas has done ok with Tebow. Maybe it's because he doesn't start crying every time he hears an opponent's footsteps.Extrapolate his numbers with Orton over 16 games and he goes 80-1080 and 16 TDS. When you have a terrible passing QB your wide receivers suffer.Yeah, like Demaryius Thomas has suffered, right? How about we try extrapolating his numbers since getting back into the starting role 4 weeks ago? 1650/12 is the correct answer.Regardless of who the QB is the return of Thomas, who is actually capable of catching a pass when there is a defender within 7 yards of him, was going to push Decker's usefulness down the charts.
  19. This is the more important stat, because it takes into account both completions and incompletions. Did you read the entire post or just pick out a few words? I don't think you could have missed the point more entirely than you did.why look at YPC when YPA is much more informative?Because apparently basic reading comprehension is frowned upon 'round these parts.YPC is not being used as an efficiency measure or an indicator of how good or bad anyone is. It never was, and in fact that much was explicitly stated.
  20. This is the more important stat, because it takes into account both completions and incompletions. Did you read the entire post or just pick out a few words? I don't think you could have missed the point more entirely than you did.
  21. Let's be fair about this both ways. Didn't they throw up a stat during the Buffalo game that Tebow's yards per completion were 1st in the NFL? I just did a quick check on Rodgers/Brady/Brees and he's beating all of them. I know that, in his 3 starts last year his yards per completion would have set an NFL record if he'd had enough attempts.That's not to say anything good about that stat, but just to say that it seems a bit silly to say we should disregard Elway's low completion pct because he was making difficult throws when such a high percentage of Tebow's attempts are difficult, low percentage vertical passes. How many times has Denver run a simple little naked bootleg this year where all the QB has to do is dump it off to the TE who's 2 yards away? Once all year maybe, compared to most teams that do it 2-3 times per game? You could say the same thing about Elway, as it's not only his completion percentage that was similar to Tebow's but also his yards per completion, which was identical. Of course that worked out pretty well for Elway...
  22. A young QB had a bad game, it happens. Heck, all QBs young and old have bad games. Brady threw 4 picks against that same defense this year too. On to the next topic, can we get an Eric Decker hate-club that's on par with the Tebow-hater club? That ball-skilless clown makes 50% of the easy plays and 0% of the hard ones.
  23. Stop fishing. First off, I never said that.Secondly, you were the one who started spouting off made up stats about Skelton...until they were totally proven to be based in error - then (as you have done countless times throughout your hate-induced fishing trip in this thread) refused to acknowledge any possibility that you were mistaken, instead trying once again to change the subject in a feeble attempt to cover the fact that you were, once again, completely mistaken in your assertion.
×
  • Create New...