otb_lifer
Footballguy
5/3/22: Link To Post With All Career Starts For The Field & All The Prep Races
'ola, you handful of intrepid folks who give a #### - we have only 7 weeks to go, so ... why the hell not - plenty in the books already to catch up on, but i'll "Psaki" to that as time permits during the upcoming week.
what's new for '22?
NO. BAFFERT.
yeah, Medina Spirit was officially DQ'd, giving the '21 roses to ol' Louisiana buddy Mandaloun - refund line forms at the left, good sirs.
so the Silver Bullet gets a 2 year Churchill ban, and all of a sudden a yuuuuuge 75/1 shot takes down his million $ baby in The Rebel
under increased scrutiny, Bob is ... now, i'm not sayin', BUT - when was the last time you recall this kinda clunker from one of his prized colts? UN OJO up that friggin' rail, as Bobbo's Newgrange doesn't even board, as the 4/5 favorite, in a field he towered over.
yeah, #### happens in this game, we all know that - but, again, this wasn't second by a neck to another hotshot trainer/horse/connection.
so, there's that - take from it what ya will ... not flat-out claiming he's lost his juice (pun intended), just that Hot Springs has been very good to him on the trail in years past - it's a new ballgame in '22.
the Rebel being my favorite prep race, yes - i whiffed it.
anyway - today brings the 2022 edition of the storied TAMPA BAY DERBY - always such a wildcard event ... what with the concrete like surface foisting false speed gods on us - the points system may have robbed us of those cheap sprinters, but there's always these mid-tier bullrings to make up for that.
interestingly enough, tho, our bored darlings out this circuit have not been of that speed ilk ... starting with Musket Man a dozen years ago, we find solace and comfort in the grinders who give us honest efforts down there - Tapwrit, Tacitus ... hell, even Street Sense bagged this one back in '07.
the last 3 winners have been no bueno (Helium, King Guillermo, Quip), with Helium and KingG being two whose numbers dazzled on that surface, but did not translate at all to more reasonable ovals - and Quip just plain sucked.
what can we expect today?
PAIN.
ok, heavy favorite coming in is #4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (guess where his bloodline lies, go ahead) - yeah, i know ... this track is a ####### mind blower, and heavy rests the head who holds the chalk, but this cat has a ton going for him:
- maiden broken at the Spa
- won his 3 yr old debut, the Sam F. Davis, last month (this race's prep).
- worked impressively leading up.
- IRAD IS ON FIRE.
- likes this surface, familiar with this surface, can absolutely uncork another ginormous run on this surface.
seriously, i kno we wanna look for the coin angles here, and pimping the 9/5 ml fave (who will be banged down to prolly 4/5) really ain't gonna break the bank.
so we'll look underneath:
#1 GRANTHAM (20/1 ml)
track could be off today, and this cat has run decently in the muck ... was fourth in the Withers, behind winner EARLY VOTING and Rebel darling UN OJO.
just hope he doesn't get pinched too far off the class speed, 'cuz that would put the cue in the rack by the 1/2m.
Camacho won on King G a couple years back ... so that familiarity with this surface helps, but he's gonna need to run back to his Turfway (Tapeta) fig to matter here - but the fact that they opted for this Tampa surface, over the Tapeta over there at Gulfstream, tells me something.
he's gotta fire.
#3 HAPPY BOY ROCKET (12/1 ml)
shipping in for Mott, after a doozy maiden score (91) at this same distance (1m 1/16) at Gulfstream. great stalking spot right next to the fave - can't see this one missing the board.
... and now 2 who have run this course well, which is a huge plus down there:
#9 SHIPSATIONAL (5/1 ml)
ran 2nd to today's favorite in the Davis, has best consistent speed #s of the lot, and has been working very well.
has mixed it up with good stakes company, fits extremely well with this group ... if the fave falters, this is my choice to be picking him up as they cross the wire.
#11 MONEY SUPPLY (10/1 ml)
***SCRATCH***
Chad Brown deciding to stretch this one out after his debut at 6f is telling me he likes what he sees here ... $400,000 price tag, outta Practical Joker - so there are some questions about consistently getting 1m+ routes - but the connections (including a smokin' Jose Ortiz) from top to bottom have been very right in recent vintage. tough to ignore, and i certainly advise using.
TRI KEY-BOX
3/1, 4, 9, 11.
'ola, you handful of intrepid folks who give a #### - we have only 7 weeks to go, so ... why the hell not - plenty in the books already to catch up on, but i'll "Psaki" to that as time permits during the upcoming week.
what's new for '22?
NO. BAFFERT.
yeah, Medina Spirit was officially DQ'd, giving the '21 roses to ol' Louisiana buddy Mandaloun - refund line forms at the left, good sirs.
so the Silver Bullet gets a 2 year Churchill ban, and all of a sudden a yuuuuuge 75/1 shot takes down his million $ baby in The Rebel
under increased scrutiny, Bob is ... now, i'm not sayin', BUT - when was the last time you recall this kinda clunker from one of his prized colts? UN OJO up that friggin' rail, as Bobbo's Newgrange doesn't even board, as the 4/5 favorite, in a field he towered over.
yeah, #### happens in this game, we all know that - but, again, this wasn't second by a neck to another hotshot trainer/horse/connection.
so, there's that - take from it what ya will ... not flat-out claiming he's lost his juice (pun intended), just that Hot Springs has been very good to him on the trail in years past - it's a new ballgame in '22.
the Rebel being my favorite prep race, yes - i whiffed it.
anyway - today brings the 2022 edition of the storied TAMPA BAY DERBY - always such a wildcard event ... what with the concrete like surface foisting false speed gods on us - the points system may have robbed us of those cheap sprinters, but there's always these mid-tier bullrings to make up for that.
interestingly enough, tho, our bored darlings out this circuit have not been of that speed ilk ... starting with Musket Man a dozen years ago, we find solace and comfort in the grinders who give us honest efforts down there - Tapwrit, Tacitus ... hell, even Street Sense bagged this one back in '07.
the last 3 winners have been no bueno (Helium, King Guillermo, Quip), with Helium and KingG being two whose numbers dazzled on that surface, but did not translate at all to more reasonable ovals - and Quip just plain sucked.
what can we expect today?
PAIN.
ok, heavy favorite coming in is #4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (guess where his bloodline lies, go ahead) - yeah, i know ... this track is a ####### mind blower, and heavy rests the head who holds the chalk, but this cat has a ton going for him:
- maiden broken at the Spa
- won his 3 yr old debut, the Sam F. Davis, last month (this race's prep).
- worked impressively leading up.
- IRAD IS ON FIRE.
- likes this surface, familiar with this surface, can absolutely uncork another ginormous run on this surface.
seriously, i kno we wanna look for the coin angles here, and pimping the 9/5 ml fave (who will be banged down to prolly 4/5) really ain't gonna break the bank.
so we'll look underneath:
#1 GRANTHAM (20/1 ml)
track could be off today, and this cat has run decently in the muck ... was fourth in the Withers, behind winner EARLY VOTING and Rebel darling UN OJO.
just hope he doesn't get pinched too far off the class speed, 'cuz that would put the cue in the rack by the 1/2m.
Camacho won on King G a couple years back ... so that familiarity with this surface helps, but he's gonna need to run back to his Turfway (Tapeta) fig to matter here - but the fact that they opted for this Tampa surface, over the Tapeta over there at Gulfstream, tells me something.
he's gotta fire.
#3 HAPPY BOY ROCKET (12/1 ml)
shipping in for Mott, after a doozy maiden score (91) at this same distance (1m 1/16) at Gulfstream. great stalking spot right next to the fave - can't see this one missing the board.
... and now 2 who have run this course well, which is a huge plus down there:
#9 SHIPSATIONAL (5/1 ml)
ran 2nd to today's favorite in the Davis, has best consistent speed #s of the lot, and has been working very well.
has mixed it up with good stakes company, fits extremely well with this group ... if the fave falters, this is my choice to be picking him up as they cross the wire.
#11 MONEY SUPPLY (10/1 ml)
***SCRATCH***
Chad Brown deciding to stretch this one out after his debut at 6f is telling me he likes what he sees here ... $400,000 price tag, outta Practical Joker - so there are some questions about consistently getting 1m+ routes - but the connections (including a smokin' Jose Ortiz) from top to bottom have been very right in recent vintage. tough to ignore, and i certainly advise using.
TRI KEY-BOX
3/1, 4, 9, 11.

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