1,432 yds 50 rec 13 TDs: 2012 Non-Ridley NE RB Production (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

2012 non-Ridley RB totals:

Rushing: 826/9

Receiving: 70/606/4

Total: 1,432/13 - 50 receptions

There is potential for Vereen to provide RB1 numbers without taking a touch from Ridley. There is potential for Ridley to improve on his 2012 numbers. There is potential for Blount/Bolden to steal 5-10 goal line TDs and not affect Ridley's numbers.

If one can predict where these numbers go, with any kind of accuracy, he will be rewarded with major production. Very interesting to look at, IMO, and surprising.

My best guess is that Vereen surprises and turns in a top 20 PPR season, with 50 receptions or so.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I have Vereen in two dynasties, both are non-ppr for RBs. He is no better than my RB5 in either league... but I cannot trade him for jack. I would be lucky to get a 3rd rounder for him in either league. He is eligible to have a max contract in both leagues... but I don't know what to do with him.

Then the owner in my only PPR treats him (even last year) as an established starter.

Vereen is an interesting guy in dynasties.

 

[Phenix]

I feel the same way, he will put up RB2 numbers easy with an outside shot to put up Sproles like numbers.

 

[radiohead417]

I'm only seeing 50 receptions from non-Ridley RBs.

 

[Kleck]

There is room for Vereen to have a solid year in PPR. I'd be very interested in adding him to some of my teams but his owners still have last year's playoffs fresh in their minds. I'd easily give an early 2nd for him.

Ridley is pretty underrated. The guy performs, but since he's not "elite" and doesn't catch many passes his value suffers. 4.4 ypc will keep him a job in this league.

 

[donkshow]

I'd take him as a bye-week filler for sure.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I shy away from all Patriot backs. RBs under BB's helm have historically been very inconsistent. BB will go with the hot hand, or the talent that best fits that week's game plan.

 

[Nero]

I think Blount is an upgrade of Bolden, he us getting a 150 carries. Vereen will be what Woodhead was last year.

 

[Tau837]

Will Blount even make the team? IMO Bolden is being overlooked in this discussion. He is still just 23 years old.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Will Blount even make the team? IMO Bolden is being overlooked in this discussion. He is still just 23 years old.

I may be Bolden's biggest fan, but...RidleyVerneenBlountBoldenWashington (STs)Are they going to keep five? If not, Blount and Bolden may be fighting for one spot. Also, Bolden's in a walking boot for some unreported reason.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm only seeing 50 receptions from non-Ridley RBs.

That is correct; my bad. Looks like I mistook targets for receptions. I'll fix.

 

[BroadwayG]

Most of that production will go to the all pro WR squad the pats have masterfully put together.

 

[Tau837]

Will Blount even make the team? IMO Bolden is being overlooked in this discussion. He is still just 23 years old.

I may be Bolden's biggest fan, but...Ridley

Verneen

Blount

Bolden

Washington (STs)

Are they going to keep five? If not, Blount and Bolden may be fighting for one spot. Also, Bolden's in a walking boot for some unreported reason.

From Rotoworld:

ESPN Boston lists LeGarrette Blount as the No. 5 running back on the Patriots' depth chart.

In terms of early-down backs, Blount is third behind Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. Shane Vereen and Leon Washington are the passing-down backs. The Patriots did give up a seventh-round pick to get Blount, but he's certainly not a strong bet to make the final roster. Blount averaged 3.68 YPC last season and has nine fumbles on 426 NFL carries. Apr 30 - 12:47 PM

 

[Lab]

Most of that production will go to the all pro WR squad the pats have masterfully put together.

It's the lack of talent at WR in NE that most intrigues me about Vereen. He could be on the field a lot as a pass catcher. Woodhead had 40 receptions last season. And that was competing with Welker (118rec), Hernandez (51), Lloyd (74!), Gronk (55). For 2013, there's only Amendola (a big downgrade from Welker), rookie Aaron Dobson, Hernandez, an injured Gronk, and Edelman. Someone's got to catch those passes, and Vereen seems like a good bet.

 

[LawFitz]

So no one sees Neon Leon as a threat to Vereen?

 

[msommer]

I'd be reluctant to lump a lot of this production on any one player

 

[DoubleG]

I'd be reluctant to lump a lot of this production on any one player

This. There is a reason you had to combine the stats in the first place. That is, in NE, the 2nd RB slot is RBBBC (RB By Big Committee). If they end up with 4 RBs on the roster, just divide those wonderful numbers in the first postby 3 amoungst the 3 not named "Ridley". Is it possible that won't happen? Sure. But it's more likely that many NE RBs not named Ridley will barely be bye-week fill-ins given their inconsistency week to week.

 

[ajarofpennies]

Vereen has some potential as long as he can avoid the minor nagging injuries that affected his playing time last couple years.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here is the RB production throughout the BB era in New England. The first column is the total fantasy points scored by the highest scoring RB, then the second highest scoring back, etc. The last column is total fantasy points by the RB corps. (0 ppr leagues).

2000 133.5 71.2 28.3 7.5 2.3 2.0 1.5 246.32001 212.9 55.0 48.7 25.1 13.3 0.0 0.0 355.02002 170.5 95.0 29.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 298.12003 107.8 91.4 42.6 24.8 4.8 1.5 0.0 272.92004 251.8 68.3 35.6 8.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 368.92005 169.4 65.2 40.5 28.0 5.9 1.9 0.0 310.92006 173.9 135.9 65.9 21.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 401.32007 131.1 70.8 59.9 34.4 21.6 0.0 0.0 317.82008 135.2 130.8 61.2 60.3 9.3 8.2 0.0 405.02009 139.6 81.6 61.9 52.6 12.5 0.0 0.0 348.22010 187.6 128.6 16.1 13.3 10.7 1.7 0.0 358.02011 148.6 56.8 51.4 11.7 9.1 0.0 0.0 277.62012 203.4 116.7 64.0 40.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 424.8A few things worth noting: - Last year was the highest team total in all 13 years.- Only 4 times did NE produce more than 1 fantasy worthy back (looking only at the entire season's scoring).- The team RB scoring often fluctuated by 100 points (or thereabouts) per year.- There were times where guys 3rd or 4th in line vultured a fair amount of fantasy points (13 times non-Top 2 NE RBs scored at least 40 points in a season). At this point, the Pats have made so many personnel changes at skill positions that it really is hard to project who will do what (well, harder than usual). RUNNING BACKS:Woodhead out, Blount and Washington in. WIDE RECEIVERS:Welker, Lloyd, Branch all out, Some grouping of Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, Jones, Jenkins, or others potentially in. TIGHT ENDS:Ballard now available. Certainly there are a lot of potential outcomes, one of which would be Vereen picking up more work and getting a lot more receptions. Another would be NE trying to pound the ball more and pass less, but that rushing workload could easily be divided up among all the backs. Bottom line, we won't really know what to expect until we get a lot closer to the season and see who makes the opening day roster. I know that is a bit of a cop out as people will draft fantasy teams well before September, but for now any other comments or projections would really be total guesses at this point.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Good posting, Anarchy99.

I wonder how much of last year's increase in NE RB numbers was caused by the implementation of the hurry up, no huddle offense.

I'm also suspicious that Brady's arm strength is dropping off faster than BB wants to let on, hence more run opportunities.

 

[loose circuits]

So no one sees Neon Leon as a threat to Vereen?

wondering the same thing myself

 

[Tau837]

So no one sees Neon Leon as a threat to Vereen?

Why would anyone think that? When is the last time Leon mattered on offense?

 

[Tau837]

Good posting, Anarchy99.

I was hoping David would comment on this.

 

[Faust]

from Rotoworld:

ESPN Boston gets the feeling Patriots RB Brandon Bolden will get a chance to earn carries this season.
Prior to his four-game suspension for violating the league's PED policy, Bolden averaged 7.5 touches and 40.8 yards per game in six contests. Those numbers are skewed by a 16-carry, 137-yard game against the Bills, but it was obvious the Patriots liked his pounding running style. It's hard to trust any running back under coach Bill Belichick, but Bolden would be worth a flier in dynasty.

Source: ESPN Boston