#1 overall pick (1 Viewer)

[Deuce'sWild]

I've never had the #1 overall pick, but landed it this year and now that I have it I am thinking I might get rid of it, or at least see what I can get for it.

Here's why...

I can see 3 possible picks for #1 overall (LT, ADP, S. Jax). I realize most players do have issues, but it seems like all three of these guys carry significant risk this year.

- LT is coming off MCL tear, did not get surgery to repair it (which makes him very susceptible to reinjury--ligaments that are stretched or torn and not repaired to not return to their original length, making them very prone to reinjury--kind of like an ankle injury that continues to plague and athlete). In addition, he has significant wear and tear....and for the 1st time in recent memory, does NOT have a solid backup in case he goes down

- ADP is a sexy pick, but doesn't have a proven track record yet, and has shown in the past to be an injury risk. We don't know for sure how many carries he'll get with Chester in the mix, but likely won't see "workhorse" type numbers like LJ, Alexander, or LT have in the past that solidified them as #1 picks. The good news is that you can lock up Chester later on and not miss much like you would with the other 2 RBs I have listed. He is a high risk/high reward guy, not really what I want with my first pick.

- S. Jackson is a beast when running healthy and behind a healthy OL. However, he struggled mightily last year in both those categories and has only had one year worthy of a top pick... whereas LT has done it before. He doesn't have a very strong backup either.

No RBs are without risks, but it seems like this year is not the year to have a #1 PICK. I think trading it away and getting something in return may benefit you more this year than ever before. I'd like to maybe trade to a #3 or #4 pick and possibly still land one of either ADP or S Jax and also get a higher draft pick in the 2nd round.

Am I crazy for wanting to get rid of this #1 PICK? Anyone else in the same boat or want to talk some sense into me?

 

[ImTheScientist]

You need to pick LT. Predicting injuries is not something that should be done. I have the #1 pick and had the same thoughts run through my head initially but after thinking logically about it LT is your guy.

1) His track record

2) Easy schedule

3) Dominant OL

4) Norv Turner

5) Work load

the only negative is possible injury (that can not be predicted and is not a reason to not take this guy). He wants to be the greatest RB of all time. He wants records. There is NO WAY this guy is slowing down at 29. I think he still has 2-3 good years left in him.

 

[Banger]

I'm not sure why Sjax is even in the conversation. To me, it's clearly a two man race, one low risk high reward, the other higher risk high reward.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

You need to pick LT. Predicting injuries is not something that should be done. I have the #1 pick and had the same thoughts run through my head initially but after thinking logically about it LT is your guy.1) His track record2) Easy schedule3) Dominant OL4) Norv Turner5) Work loadthe only negative is possible injury (that can not be predicted and is not a reason to not take this guy). He wants to be the greatest RB of all time. He wants records. There is NO WAY this guy is slowing down at 29. I think he still has 2-3 good years left in him.

I understand what you're saying...I'm not trying to predict injuries as much as I see that he already is injured with that knee, and if he goes down there is nobody there to backup him up worth having. I'm a doctor so I know how this stuff works...I see it everyday. Maybe I'm being too cerebral with it, but it seems like having a #4 pick and getting S. Jax or ADP there and then getting RB 12 vs RB 15 (hypothetically) would be a better value. However, I don't know if there's a lot of dropoff from RBs in that tier (haven't got that far with it yet, which is why I started this thread to get those values established)I agree though, if LT doesn't get injured he's a no brainer, but the fact that he stretched that ligament out enough to cause him to not play in PLAYOFF games means it was a significant injury, and not having it repaired may indeed cause him to reinjure it very easily this year. It's more likely than not, actually.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I'm not sure why Sjax is even in the conversation. To me, it's clearly a two man race, one low risk high reward, the other higher risk high reward.

My thoughts exactly. At 1.1 you go with the low risk, high reward player in LT. I can guarantee the guy at 1.2 would crap himself if LT fell to him.

 

[FUBAR]

FWIW, I would trade it away in a redraft, but I'm pretty sure I'd keep it in a dynasty, assuming "fair value".

 

[burd]

im not as sure about LT this year as i've been in previous years. first, the team's main receiving threat Antonio Gates is still hobbled by the turf toe injury that nagged him most of last year. Secondly, Phillip Rivers is also coming back from injury .... ACL.

I think these two factors might contribute to a less than stellar year for LT as defenses concentrate more of their efforts in stopping him.

this being said, i really like Addai this year. He's still in a great passing offense that may have to rely on the running game more as Wayne and Harrison are getting up there in age. I think Addai will get more touches this year and could lead the league in total YFS.

 

[ImTheScientist]

From May 16th

LaDainian Tomlinson says he's completely recovered from a torn MCL suffered in last season's playoffs."I'm running and cutting and everything is good," he said. "I'm ready to go." Tomlinson was a near full participant at minicamps earlier this month.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

I, for one, do not get the SJax hype. That team is a mess. Talent or not.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

FWIW, I would trade it away in a redraft, but I'm pretty sure I'd keep it in a dynasty, assuming "fair value".

Ok, but why and who would you target to trade with (what pick) or what would you expect in return?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

From May 16th

LaDainian Tomlinson says he's completely recovered from a torn MCL suffered in last season's playoffs."I'm running and cutting and everything is good," he said. "I'm ready to go." Tomlinson was a near full participant at minicamps earlier this month.

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

 

[Jedimaster21]

I've never had the #1 overall pick, but landed it this year and now that I have it I am thinking I might get rid of it, or at least see what I can get for it. Here's why...I can see 3 possible picks for #1 overall (LT, ADP, S. Jax). I realize most players do have issues, but it seems like all three of these guys carry significant risk this year. - LT is coming off MCL tear, did not get surgery to repair it (which makes him very susceptible to reinjury--ligaments that are stretched or torn and not repaired to not return to their original length, making them very prone to reinjury--kind of like an ankle injury that continues to plague and athlete). In addition, he has significant wear and tear....and for the 1st time in recent memory, does NOT have a solid backup in case he goes down- ADP is a sexy pick, but doesn't have a proven track record yet, and has shown in the past to be an injury risk. We don't know for sure how many carries he'll get with Chester in the mix, but likely won't see "workhorse" type numbers like LJ, Alexander, or LT have in the past that solidified them as #1 picks. The good news is that you can lock up Chester later on and not miss much like you would with the other 2 RBs I have listed. He is a high risk/high reward guy, not really what I want with my first pick.- S. Jackson is a beast when running healthy and behind a healthy OL. However, he struggled mightily last year in both those categories and has only had one year worthy of a top pick... whereas LT has done it before. He doesn't have a very strong backup either. No RBs are without risks, but it seems like this year is not the year to have a #1 PICK. I think trading it away and getting something in return may benefit you more this year than ever before. I'd like to maybe trade to a #3 or #4 pick and possibly still land one of either ADP or S Jax and also get a higher draft pick in the 2nd round.Am I crazy for wanting to get rid of this #1 PICK? Anyone else in the same boat or want to talk some sense into me?

I'm not really sure that AD is high risk/high reward. Maybe low risk/high reward. He may get injured, but he also may stay healthy and put up 2000 yards and 20 scores. Even if he misses a few games, you can draft Chester in the later rounds and protect yourself (as you said). Considering he was a top 5 back last year without a passing game, without being in on 3rd downs, and not carrying the full load...that information indicates to you that he can produce very well even with limited touches. I really don't see too much risk in AD like some are saying. I would just take AD and be happy.That being said, I don't think it is a bad move to trade down one spot. That way you still get one of LT/AD, and will be able to pick up an extra pick. You should find out if the guy that has that pick loves one of the two. You could even trade down to three and still get a stud in Jackson. Personally, I don' think you should trade down any further because you are giving up one of the 3 stud RBs in fantasy ball.

 

[BigRed]

Our league doesn't allow trading draft picks. But I agree on not trading the pick unless someone gives a ridiculous offer.

 

[ImTheScientist]

From May 16th

LaDainian Tomlinson says he's completely recovered from a torn MCL suffered in last season's playoffs."I'm running and cutting and everything is good," he said. "I'm ready to go." Tomlinson was a near full participant at minicamps earlier this month.

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

True...but what RB in your rankings has not been injured at one point in his career?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm not sure why Sjax is even in the conversation. To me, it's clearly a two man race, one low risk high reward, the other higher risk high reward.

Didn't he lead the league in YFS 2 years ago? Last year was an anomaly in StL. Everyone was injured. They now have Al Saunders, who is a RB's dream. I can see SJax having a huge year if everyone stays healthy and Saunder's utilizes him like he has used his RBs in the past.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

From May 16th

LaDainian Tomlinson says he's completely recovered from a torn MCL suffered in last season's playoffs."I'm running and cutting and everything is good," he said. "I'm ready to go." Tomlinson was a near full participant at minicamps earlier this month.

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

True...but what RB in your rankings has not been injured at one point in his career?

The difference is that they haven't injured a knee ligament OR if they have it has been surgically repaired. Knee problems can be the end of RBs...but certainly don't have to be. It's just one of those things that makes me nervous about him. Many RBs have done fine after knee surgeries, but many who don't have any repair are usually injured soon after.

 

[pollardsvision]

i'd do it for the right offer.

it also depends on the size of your starting rosters. if you start 1qb,2rb,2wr,1te, it'd take a ridiculous offer. a 3rd WR and/or a flex spot would make me more inclined to do it.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The difference is that they haven't injured a knee ligament OR if they have it has been surgically repaired. Knee problems can be the end of RBs...but certainly don't have to be. It's just one of those things that makes me nervous about him.

Many RBs have done fine after knee surgeries, but many who don't have any repair are usually injured soon after.

He tore his MCL. This is a 6-8 week healing process....its the least serious of the knee ligament injuries. Its pretty obvious that you love S-Jax. Just take him instead of trying to convince yourself that LT is not #1.ETA: Can you provide a link or examples of the bolded?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

The difference is that they haven't injured a knee ligament OR if they have it has been surgically repaired. Knee problems can be the end of RBs...but certainly don't have to be. It's just one of those things that makes me nervous about him.

Many RBs have done fine after knee surgeries, but many who don't have any repair are usually injured soon after.

He tore his MCL. This is a 6-8 week healing process....its the least serious of the knee ligament injuries. Its pretty obvious that you love S-Jax. Just take him instead of trying to convince yourself that LT is not #1.ETA: Can you provide a link or examples of the bolded?

The bolded part is just scientific knowledge. I can't think of anyone right off hand specifically, but in the health field it's common knowledge that a torn or stretched ligament is very susceptible to reinjury...that's all.As far as S Jax goes, I don't have a man crush on him...I'd actually probably take ADP before him. I'm just trying to think through this and maximize my draft.

Nothing is for certain, but with LTs wear and tear, his torn MCL at the end of last year and his lack of good backup...he's just not that slam dunk that he has been....which is why I wonder if trading down is a good idea.

 

[TheFanatic]

These two arguments are very compelling

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

I'm not really sure that AD is high risk/high reward. Maybe low risk/high reward. He may get injured, but he also may stay healthy and put up 2000 yards and 20 scores. Even if he misses a few games, you can draft Chester in the later rounds and protect yourself (as you said). Considering he was a top 5 back last year without a passing game, without being in on 3rd downs, and not carrying the full load...that information indicates to you that he can produce very well even with limited touches. I really don't see too much risk in AD like some are saying. I would just take AD and be happy.That being said, I don't think it is a bad move to trade down one spot. That way you still get one of LT/AD, and will be able to pick up an extra pick. You should find out if the guy that has that pick loves one of the two. You could even trade down to three and still get a stud in Jackson. Personally, I don' think you should trade down any further because you are giving up one of the 3 stud RBs in fantasy ball.

I have the 1.1 in a startup contract dynasty league. The longest contract is 3 years. If I take LT or ADP, in 3 years he would be a FA. Owning LT in another similar league for 2 more years makes me a little biased here since he carried me to a championship last year. I was really leaning towards LT, but ADP is so friggin explosive that I'm not sure anymore. ADP did it for just one year and came up gimpy. I gotta say that this thread has me back to the drawing board at 1.1.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

These two arguments are very compelling

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

I'm not really sure that AD is high risk/high reward. Maybe low risk/high reward. He may get injured, but he also may stay healthy and put up 2000 yards and 20 scores. Even if he misses a few games, you can draft Chester in the later rounds and protect yourself (as you said). Considering he was a top 5 back last year without a passing game, without being in on 3rd downs, and not carrying the full load...that information indicates to you that he can produce very well even with limited touches. I really don't see too much risk in AD like some are saying. I would just take AD and be happy.That being said, I don't think it is a bad move to trade down one spot. That way you still get one of LT/AD, and will be able to pick up an extra pick. You should find out if the guy that has that pick loves one of the two. You could even trade down to three and still get a stud in Jackson. Personally, I don' think you should trade down any further because you are giving up one of the 3 stud RBs in fantasy ball.

I have the 1.1 in a startup contract dynasty league. The longest contract is 3 years. If I take LT or ADP, in 3 years he would be a FA. Owning LT in another similar league for 2 more years makes me a little biased here since he carried me to a championship last year. I was really leaning towards LT, but ADP is so friggin explosive that I'm not sure anymore. ADP did it for just one year and came up gimpy. I gotta say that this thread has me back to the drawing board at 1.1.

I hear ya. Even if I keep the #1 pick I don't know who I'd take for sure. Seems like having Chester Taylor as a backup and the possibility of outproducing LT anyway are two very favorable things he has going for him.Play it out...if LT gets hurt you're in big trouble, if not he produces very good numbers. If ADP gets hurt you have a solid backup (assuming you can land Taylor later in the draft), if not he produces very good numbers.You have to cover your butt. When Turner was there that was very possible with LT, but now that he's a starting RB for Atlanta I'm a little less excited about it.

 

[TheFanatic]

These two arguments are very compelling

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

I'm not really sure that AD is high risk/high reward. Maybe low risk/high reward. He may get injured, but he also may stay healthy and put up 2000 yards and 20 scores. Even if he misses a few games, you can draft Chester in the later rounds and protect yourself (as you said). Considering he was a top 5 back last year without a passing game, without being in on 3rd downs, and not carrying the full load...that information indicates to you that he can produce very well even with limited touches. I really don't see too much risk in AD like some are saying. I would just take AD and be happy.That being said, I don't think it is a bad move to trade down one spot. That way you still get one of LT/AD, and will be able to pick up an extra pick. You should find out if the guy that has that pick loves one of the two. You could even trade down to three and still get a stud in Jackson. Personally, I don' think you should trade down any further because you are giving up one of the 3 stud RBs in fantasy ball.

I have the 1.1 in a startup contract dynasty league. The longest contract is 3 years. If I take LT or ADP, in 3 years he would be a FA. Owning LT in another similar league for 2 more years makes me a little biased here since he carried me to a championship last year. I was really leaning towards LT, but ADP is so friggin explosive that I'm not sure anymore. ADP did it for just one year and came up gimpy. I gotta say that this thread has me back to the drawing board at 1.1.

I hear ya. Even if I keep the #1 pick I don't know who I'd take for sure. Seems like having Chester Taylor as a backup and the possibility of outproducing LT anyway are two very favorable things he has going for him.Play it out...if LT gets hurt you're in big trouble, if not he produces very good numbers. If ADP gets hurt you have a solid backup (assuming you can land Taylor later in the draft), if not he produces very good numbers.You have to cover your butt. When Turner was there that was very possible with LT, but now that he's a starting RB for Atlanta I'm a little less excited about it.

Add to the fact that I am a Rams homer and know that the Rams collapsed last year because of the line. If that is rectified then SJax is going to be a beast. And I'm hoping it is rectified. Still, my head says LT or ADP. Heart says SJax....

 

[phillycard]

 

[Banger]

I'm not sure why Sjax is even in the conversation. To me, it's clearly a two man race, one low risk high reward, the other higher risk high reward.

Didn't he lead the league in YFS 2 years ago? Last year was an anomaly in StL. Everyone was injured. They now have Al Saunders, who is a RB's dream. I can see SJax having a huge year if everyone stays healthy and Saunder's utilizes him like he has used his RBs in the past.

I don't know that it's an anomaly, yes their line was decimated but even if completely healthy they aren't close to SD or Minn. Al Saunders was on Wash with a much better line than St. Louis has and how did a very good RB in Portis finish? St. Louis can't keep Bulger healthy, they don't have a solid #2 wr yet so who knows how their offense will be. Two years is a lot especially when one of the anchors of their line (Pace) and best lineman is a shadow of his former self. Yes, Sjax is a workhorse and good RB but I don't see his situation much differently than I do LJ and LJ is ranked 7 spots or so lower.... I don't doubt that SJax will get yards but TD's will be hard to come by. Last year Minn was #1 in rushing TD's with 22, SD was tied for 2nd with 19 and St. Louis was 32nd out of 32 teams with 5.

 

[TheFanatic]

Al Saunders was on Wash with a much better line than St. Louis has and how did a very good RB in Portis finish?

He finished 5th overall at RB in a non PPR league with over 1600 total yards and 12 TD's (one was passing). 10 more points and he would've been higher than ADP at 3rd. Yeah, Portis really stunk the place up last year.

St. Louis can't keep Bulger healthy, they don't have a solid #2 wr yet so who knows how their offense will be. Two years is a lot especially when one of the anchors of their line (Pace) and best lineman is a shadow of his former self. Yes, Sjax is a workhorse and good RB but I don't see his situation much differently than I do LJ and LJ is ranked 7 spots or so lower.... I don't doubt that SJax will get yards but TD's will be hard to come by. Last year Minn was #1 in rushing TD's with 22, SD was tied for 2nd with 19 and St. Louis was 32nd out of 32 teams with 5.

Things were bad all the way around in St. Louis last year and it all came back to the lines, both offensive and defensive. Orlando went down, Little went down. But it just wasn't Pace. They pulled so many street FA's in that with the numbers retired on the line and the numbers assigned to these chumps the Rams only had 2 numbers left in the O-Line range to assign to any other FA's at the end of the year. Think about that for a minute. Everyone was injured.If the O-Line is healthy this team will score mad points. And they have invested heavily in the line the last 2 years with picks and FA's. For the first time in a long time they have a decent amount of depth. Some things still have to fall into place but SJax has the potential to not only be top 5 in 2008 like Portis in 2007 but could be there for a few years to come.

 

[Banger]

Al Saunders was on Wash with a much better line than St. Louis has and how did a very good RB in Portis finish?

He finished 5th overall at RB in a non PPR league with over 1600 total yards and 12 TD's (one was passing). 10 more points and he would've been higher than ADP at 3rd. Yeah, Portis really stunk the place up last year.

St. Louis can't keep Bulger healthy, they don't have a solid #2 wr yet so who knows how their offense will be. Two years is a lot especially when one of the anchors of their line (Pace) and best lineman is a shadow of his former self. Yes, Sjax is a workhorse and good RB but I don't see his situation much differently than I do LJ and LJ is ranked 7 spots or so lower.... I don't doubt that SJax will get yards but TD's will be hard to come by. Last year Minn was #1 in rushing TD's with 22, SD was tied for 2nd with 19 and St. Louis was 32nd out of 32 teams with 5.

Things were bad all the way around in St. Louis last year and it all came back to the lines, both offensive and defensive. Orlando went down, Little went down. But it just wasn't Pace. They pulled so many street FA's in that with the numbers retired on the line and the numbers assigned to these chumps the Rams only had 2 numbers left in the O-Line range to assign to any other FA's at the end of the year. Think about that for a minute. Everyone was injured.If the O-Line is healthy this team will score mad points. And they have invested heavily in the line the last 2 years with picks and FA's. For the first time in a long time they have a decent amount of depth. Some things still have to fall into place but SJax has the potential to not only be top 5 in 2008 like Portis in 2007 but could be there for a few years to come.

No need to put words in my mouth. I know Portis had a good year but Saunders isn't bringing his line with him (unfortunately for Sjax). I think SJax is a good back and will finish top 5 based on the workload but we're talking the #1 pick here and their line which should improve over last year still won't be close to the lines of the consensus #1//#2 rb's. When I'm picking the #1 pick I want to go with a known situation and in producing good RB #'s, the most important thing IMO is the strength of the O-line, as well as of course talent. I don't think Sjax is more talented than either of those backs and his line isn't better. SJax is a no brainer top 5 pick, #1 nope.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I shopped the 1st pick this afternoon. One owner with #4 overall said he'd trade me picks and I could trade up in the 5th rd

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Are you hoping SJax falls to you at #4, or do you have your eyes on someone else?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Are you hoping SJax falls to you at #4, or do you have your eyes on someone else?

Hoping SJax or ADP falls. I think Addai goes #3...owner is a huge Colts fan.

 

[PR Sparty]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....

we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60).

It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD.

Is this a no brainer?

 

[ImTheScientist]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60). It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD. Is this a no brainer?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60). It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD. Is this a no brainer?

f you can pick up an extra 2nd for moving down from #1 to #4, then that is the biggest no-brainer ever. Not sure why anyone would think that it wasn't. 4 + 17 >>>>>>>> 1 + 60.

 

[Spike]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60). It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD. Is this a no brainer?

In a redraft, I would be very happy to take the #4 and #17 side of that deal.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

Was it a tear or was it a sprain of the MCL? I have seen it called both on many sites. FBG's says "Sprain".

ETA: One thing I did this year was I avoided all FF sites like the plague until 2 weeks ago following last year. I usually frequent these sites in the offseason. What I noticed is the MAJORITY of you guys tend to overthink think things way too much. There is also a HUGE amount of groupthink that goes on within the FBG's community some of which is good but a lot that tends to overvalue players due to hype.

 

[TheFanatic]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60). It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD. Is this a no brainer?

f you can pick up an extra 2nd for moving down from #1 to #4, then that is the biggest no-brainer ever. Not sure why anyone would think that it wasn't. 4 + 17 >>>>>>>> 1 + 60.

No kidding. Picking 4 times in the first 21 picks? Hello Championship!!!

 

[TheFanatic]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

This struck me as odd too. Was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and they had the SD beat writer on and said that LT was as close to 100% right now as he would ever be and TC had just started. Then again the guy thought that Gates saying his toe was 65-70% healed was a good thing. He knows that 99% of players juice the numbers on how healthy they are percentage wise, right? I was expecting to year 90% and knowing it was 75%. when he comes in at 65-70 means it's below 50%....

 

[Banger]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it? Was it a tear or was it a sprain of the MCL? I have seen it called both on many sites. FBG's says "Sprain".ETA: One thing I did this year was I avoided all FF sites like the plague until 2 weeks ago following last year. I usually frequent these sites in the offseason. What I noticed is the MAJORITY of you guys tend to overthink think things way too much. There is also a HUGE amount of groupthink that goes on within the FBG's community some of which is good but a lot that tends to overvalue players due to hype.

The funny thing is that LT missed less time (no time) than the guys he's being compared against.This thread pops up each year. Two years ago it involved SA, LJ and LT, then the following year it was LT, LJ and SJax and now this year it's LT, ADP and SJax. Always an interesting debate but I'll go with the guy who's there every year until he PROVES that he's on the decline. People have been trying to predict it for years and someday it will happen but until then don't overthink it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

From May 16th

LaDainian Tomlinson says he's completely recovered from a torn MCL suffered in last season's playoffs."I'm running and cutting and everything is good," he said. "I'm ready to go." Tomlinson was a near full participant at minicamps earlier this month.

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

True...but what RB in your rankings has not been injured at one point in his career?

The difference is that they haven't injured a knee ligament OR if they have it has been surgically repaired. Knee problems can be the end of RBs...but certainly don't have to be. It's just one of those things that makes me nervous about him. Many RBs have done fine after knee surgeries, but many who don't have any repair are usually injured soon after.

A. Peterson and B. Jacobs both had sprained (tear) MCLs during the regular season - same inury LT suffered - and played a few weeks later. Neither had surgery and neither reinjured the knee.

 

[North]

These two arguments are very compelling

Again, I am sure he feels fine, but ligaments that a stretched or torn never return to their original length like rubberbands do. They remain stretched out, and then fill in with scar tissue, which isn't very elastic and is very suspectable to being torn again. It's like taking a rubberband and stretching to the point that the fibers in the middle tear, and then filling that in with glue (scar tissue) to repair the tears...if you go and try to stretch that rubberband after the glue fills in the tears, what do you think will happen when it's really challenged?It's very similar to a sprained ankle ligament that continues to sprain over and over. Once you've done it enough to cause significant damage it's very easily reinjured.Just saying.I don't know that you drop LT in your rankings, but it might not be a sure thing this year like it has been in the past with him

I'm not really sure that AD is high risk/high reward. Maybe low risk/high reward. He may get injured, but he also may stay healthy and put up 2000 yards and 20 scores. Even if he misses a few games, you can draft Chester in the later rounds and protect yourself (as you said). Considering he was a top 5 back last year without a passing game, without being in on 3rd downs, and not carrying the full load...that information indicates to you that he can produce very well even with limited touches. I really don't see too much risk in AD like some are saying. I would just take AD and be happy.That being said, I don't think it is a bad move to trade down one spot. That way you still get one of LT/AD, and will be able to pick up an extra pick. You should find out if the guy that has that pick loves one of the two. You could even trade down to three and still get a stud in Jackson. Personally, I don' think you should trade down any further because you are giving up one of the 3 stud RBs in fantasy ball.

I have the 1.1 in a startup contract dynasty league. The longest contract is 3 years. If I take LT or ADP, in 3 years he would be a FA. Owning LT in another similar league for 2 more years makes me a little biased here since he carried me to a championship last year. I was really leaning towards LT, but ADP is so friggin explosive that I'm not sure anymore. ADP did it for just one year and came up gimpy. I gotta say that this thread has me back to the drawing board at 1.1.

I hear ya. Even if I keep the #1 pick I don't know who I'd take for sure. Seems like having Chester Taylor as a backup and the possibility of outproducing LT anyway are two very favorable things he has going for him.Play it out...if LT gets hurt you're in big trouble, if not he produces very good numbers. If ADP gets hurt you have a solid backup (assuming you can land Taylor later in the draft), if not he produces very good numbers.You have to cover your butt. When Turner was there that was very possible with LT, but now that he's a starting RB for Atlanta I'm a little less excited about it.

Add to the fact that I am a Rams homer and know that the Rams collapsed last year because of the line. If that is rectified then SJax is going to be a beast. And I'm hoping it is rectified. Still, my head says LT or ADP. Heart says SJax....

You also need to take into account that St. Louis has the worst coach in the NFL. Much of what SJAX did the final 8 weeks two years ago can be attributed to the OC who finally got the chance to take control of the offense. Once Linehan took over the reigns last year it went back down the toilet, just as it did the first 8 weeks two years ago. Hopefully Saunders will be given total control of the offense and he will utilize the best player on the team rather than putting the ball in the hands of Bulger time and time again just to see him make mistakes.If you can't tell I think Bulger is the most overrated QB in the league. Owning SJAX can be satisfying but you must also live with poor play calling inside the redzone and a QB who has bad judgement, which is very frustrating when SJAX is such a threat.

 

[TheFanatic]

You also need to take into account that St. Louis has the worst coach in the NFL. Much of what SJAX did the final 8 weeks two years ago can be attributed to the OC who finally got the chance to take control of the offense. Once Linehan took over the reigns last year it went back down the toilet, just as it did the first 8 weeks two years ago. Hopefully Saunders will be given total control of the offense and he will utilize the best player on the team rather than putting the ball in the hands of Bulger time and time again just to see him make mistakes.



If you can't tell I think Bulger is the most overrated QB in the league.

Owning SJAX can be satisfying but you must also live with poor play calling inside the redzone and a QB who has bad judgement, which is very frustrating when SJAX is such a threat.

You realize that for something like 3 years he was the most accurate QB in NFL history. Not kidding. I hear people trash him all the time and most use last year as an example. I ask about the depleted line and most just scoff and say that he couldn't pass behind a good line or that the line wasn't all that bad....I disagree on both counts...

 

[North]

You also need to take into account that St. Louis has the worst coach in the NFL. Much of what SJAX did the final 8 weeks two years ago can be attributed to the OC who finally got the chance to take control of the offense. Once Linehan took over the reigns last year it went back down the toilet, just as it did the first 8 weeks two years ago. Hopefully Saunders will be given total control of the offense and he will utilize the best player on the team rather than putting the ball in the hands of Bulger time and time again just to see him make mistakes.



If you can't tell I think Bulger is the most overrated QB in the league.

Owning SJAX can be satisfying but you must also live with poor play calling inside the redzone and a QB who has bad judgement, which is very frustrating when SJAX is such a threat.

You realize that for something like 3 years he was the most accurate QB in NFL history. Not kidding. I hear people trash him all the time and most use last year as an example. I ask about the depleted line and most just scoff and say that he couldn't pass behind a good line or that the line wasn't all that bad....I disagree on both counts...

I believe you are talking about 2003- 2006 where his QB rating was an average of 93.67. He's also had 3 seasons passing for over 3000 yds, but he has 106 tds and 74 ints, for every 4tds that he throws he throws 3 ints.If you look at years 2003 and 2007 (combined) he had more ints then tds. His 1st full year as starter he threw for 22tds and 22ints but he also received credit because they went to the divisional playoffs and lost a home game where Bulger threw 3 ints in a loss. From that moment on I've never really liked Bulger and when looking at his stats you must look at how many yards have been piled on late in games that were already out of reach. It is common to see him put up 100+ yds in the 4th quarter of a meaningless game.

The only real problem I have with him is that he is what he is, an average QB but many people seem to think that he is much better. He really isn't.

 

[tex]

I just did in a startup dynasty. Traded the 1.01 and 6.12 for the 1.03 and 4.10. I wanted Sjax anyway and that's why I did it. If for some reason Sjax goes at 1 or 2, then LT or ADP at 3 will be a nice consolation, and I've got 6 of the 1st 49 picks in the draft. :(

 

[ravnzfan]

We had our pick'em gathering last night and I got the 1 slot. Shortly after the owner who sits at number 4 offered me this deal....

we switch first round picks (I get #4, he gets #1) and then I get his 2nd rounder (#17) and he gets my 7th (#60).

It was a pretty informal offer and something that will need to be talked about again, but WOW. If i could pull that I would have #4, #17, #20, #21. That seems worth losing LT. I'd probably be looking at Westy knowing that the 3 guy wants Brady BAD.

Is this a no brainer?

ab-so-f'n-lutely!

f you can pick up an extra 2nd for moving down from #1 to #4, then that is the biggest no-brainer ever. Not sure why anyone would think that it wasn't. 4 + 17 >>>>>>>> 1 + 60.

No kidding. Picking 4 times in the first 21 picks? Hello Championship!!!

this deal might not make it thru my leagues, but if it'll fly---JUMP on it!and to the OP...please

-step away from the ledge

-load LT into the predraft function of your leagues website, then



I mean really....can we complicate this chit, or what!

 

[raven1911]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it? Was it a tear or was it a sprain of the MCL? I have seen it called both on many sites. FBG's says "Sprain".ETA: One thing I did this year was I avoided all FF sites like the plague until 2 weeks ago following last year. I usually frequent these sites in the offseason. What I noticed is the MAJORITY of you guys tend to overthink think things way too much. There is also a HUGE amount of groupthink that goes on within the FBG's community some of which is good but a lot that tends to overvalue players due to hype.

This guy claims to be a doctor but KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT MCL injuries. LT had a grade 2 MCL tear which heals WITHOUT surgery in a matter of a 3-6 weeks. When considering grade 3 or 4 tears, most doctors prefer to allow all MCL injuries to heal without surgery, very seldom do doctors prefer to surgically repair these higher grade tears to the MCL, as no significant difference has been demonstrated between the two techniques. In a grade 4 tear, which is called a medial column injury, and involves injury to more ligaments than just the MCL, whether or not to repair the MCL, even in these settings, is controversial. I would NOT worry about LT's injury as he has the best care in the world and the top doctors have seen his knee and made their suggestions. He will be fine and as of right now, is 100%. I very much dislike it when people speak about things like this and have NO IDEA what they are talking about.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

Was it a tear or was it a sprain of the MCL? I have seen it called both on many sites. FBG's says "Sprain".

ETA: One thing I did this year was I avoided all FF sites like the plague until 2 weeks ago following last year. I usually frequent these sites in the offseason. What I noticed is the MAJORITY of you guys tend to overthink think things way too much. There is also a HUGE amount of groupthink that goes on within the FBG's community some of which is good but a lot that tends to overvalue players due to hype.

This guy claims to be a doctor but KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT MCL injuries. LT had a grade 2 MCL tear which heals WITHOUT surgery in a matter of a 3-6 weeks. When considering grade 3 or 4 tears, most doctors prefer to allow all MCL injuries to heal without surgery, very seldom do doctors prefer to surgically repair these higher grade tears to the MCL, as no significant difference has been demonstrated between the two techniques. In a grade 4 tear, which is called a medial column injury, and involves injury to more ligaments than just the MCL, whether or not to repair the MCL, even in these settings, is controversial. I would NOT worry about LT's injury as he has the best care in the world and the top doctors have seen his knee and made their suggestions. He will be fine and as of right now, is 100%. I very much dislike it when people speak about things like this and have NO IDEA what they are talking about.

Wow, talk about not knowing anything. There are only 3 grades of sprains, not 4 like you mention. Grade 2 sprains take anywhere from 6-8 weeks to heal, not 3-6 weeks (even for elite athletes). And they do in fact heal with scar tissue, which makes them more susceptible to reinjury. How else would they heal, genius?Here is a link for anyone who doesn't believe me. MCL injuries

 

[ImTheScientist]

Back to the original topic. Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

Was it a tear or was it a sprain of the MCL? I have seen it called both on many sites. FBG's says "Sprain".

ETA: One thing I did this year was I avoided all FF sites like the plague until 2 weeks ago following last year. I usually frequent these sites in the offseason. What I noticed is the MAJORITY of you guys tend to overthink think things way too much. There is also a HUGE amount of groupthink that goes on within the FBG's community some of which is good but a lot that tends to overvalue players due to hype.

This guy claims to be a doctor but KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT MCL injuries. LT had a grade 2 MCL tear which heals WITHOUT surgery in a matter of a 3-6 weeks. When considering grade 3 or 4 tears, most doctors prefer to allow all MCL injuries to heal without surgery, very seldom do doctors prefer to surgically repair these higher grade tears to the MCL, as no significant difference has been demonstrated between the two techniques. In a grade 4 tear, which is called a medial column injury, and involves injury to more ligaments than just the MCL, whether or not to repair the MCL, even in these settings, is controversial. I would NOT worry about LT's injury as he has the best care in the world and the top doctors have seen his knee and made their suggestions. He will be fine and as of right now, is 100%. I very much dislike it when people speak about things like this and have NO IDEA what they are talking about.

Wow, talk about not knowing anything. There are only 3 grades of sprains, not 4 like you mention. Grade 2 sprains take anywhere from 6-8 weeks to heal, not 3-6 weeks (even for elite athletes). And they do in fact heal with scar tissue, which makes them more susceptible to reinjury. How else would they heal, genius?Here is a link for anyone who doesn't believe me. MCL injuries

Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Just to clarify, I'm not saying if you have the #1 pick to not draft LT....what I am saying is that he might be a RISK this year with his injury and lack of good backup. So, it may be a good year to trade that spot if you can get something out of it in return.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Just to clarify, I'm not saying if you have the #1 pick to not draft LT....what I am saying is that he might be a RISK this year with his injury and lack of good backup. So, it may be a good year to trade that spot if you can get something out of it in return.

Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Just to clarify, I'm not saying if you have the #1 pick to not draft LT....what I am saying is that he might be a RISK this year with his injury and lack of good backup. So, it may be a good year to trade that spot if you can get something out of it in return.

Why is the OP so concerned about LT's injury last season when most people/experts don't even mention it?

Are you asking me...because I've already told you why. Take him, don't look back...hope he doesn't tweak that MCL during the year and you're stuck with Hester as your backup RB. I think I'd rather drop a few spots, see what draft picks I can come up with, a take ADP with Ch. Taylor as a backup in case he gets injured.To each his own. Just trying to help out.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Man I'm taking heat for this...I suppose I will just do what I think is best and move on. I thought I'd just see what everyone else had in mind. I guess now I know, huh?