10-team draft, which pick number would YOU want? (1 Viewer)

[Seisto]

Hey folks,


I've got a bit of a unique one here. I'm in a 10-team redraft league, snake draft, but we've added an unusual element in recent years to allow owners to choose where they would like to draft rather than be locked into a determined draft order. It makes for some interesting decisions and a lot of predraft consideration.

Basically, the #1 pick chooses where they want to draft, then #2, and so on. Usually #9 will end up taking the last pick in the first round, guaranteeing they get the back-to-back on the snake, and little things like that.

So here is my predicament. I've managed to land the #1 pick, meaning I can choose where I want to select. There are the clear top picks for many people, but I'm beginning to see more value in dropping to 3, 4, or even 5 and nabbing Andrew Luck. The league is filled with Colts homers, but this is a NON-PPR with 6 points per passing TD (25 pass yds per point, and no bonuses). He is the top ranked overall player according to FBG using my league scoring parameters.

My question is essentially this: If you had your pick of where you wanted to draft in the first round, would you take the top pick overall, knowing you won't be picking again until #20, or would you slide back in the draft to lock in the top overall FBG ranked QB and pull a better pick in the 2nd round?

Thanks for any help, thoughts, insults, and head scratching WTFs. Much appreciated.

 

[jurb26]

Always take the highest pick available. Always.

 

[TripItUp]

Always take the highest pick available. Always.

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[Rhythmdoctor]

I like the 3 pick this year. I get my top RB and my 2nd round pick is that much sooner.

 

[Freelove]

Any. Makes no difference whatsoever.

 

[Seisto]

Any. Makes no difference whatsoever.

I love this answer. It's usually what I try to explain, that as important as the draft is, it's not nearly as crucial by the time December rolls around.

#3 is intriguing and falls in line with my reasoning. Bell, Peterson, and Charles are separated by approx. 1ppg in the FBG projections. Why not let one of them fall to me at #3 and then my 2nd round pick is that much higher?

Thanks for the insight regardless, the opinions are great.

 

[TDorBust]

Always take the highest pick available. Always.

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Hits head against wall....

I couldnt run further away from 1.01 last year in my leagues and I got it randomly in both my redrafts. I was luckily able to trade back to the 4th pick to get further up in the 2nd round and avoid being forced to take a top 3 back (later traded for Charles with his injury).

As for this year I think I would go as far back as possible to nab Gronk. Since you have Colts homers I would assume Rodgers would fall and if I could get Gronk / Rodgers I would call it a win as you would have locked down two of the biggest table turners in fantasy football. I would be more than happy to player WW roulette with WRs/RBs if I got those two.

PS - this coming from someone who loves to horde RBs in redraft even in PPR leagues w/ 6 point passing TDs

 

[Deamon]

Always take the highest pick available. Always.

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Not this year. This year with so much parity throughout the first round, I prefer a later pick. Big drop off after the first 14 or so players, so a late pick can be worth it. A lot depends on scoring system of course. If it's 3RR, or PPR, this makes it even better to go late. If its standard and regular snake, I'd be tempted to go for a top 3 pick, but if not, go very late. In 10 team, I like late because getting two top 11 players is huge. Pick 1 could get Bell+Alshon, while pick 10 could get Anderson+Julio.

It's all personal preference and depends on the league, so I wouldn't say to always go earlier. In your case, sounds like Luck would be awesome, and almost worth the top pick. Only advice is to not get too sneaky. That one extra earlier pick in the 2nd round won't make a difference in the end, so take the higher pick and go after your guy. picks 20/21/40 are going to be almost as good as picks 11/30/31, plus you get the top pick of round 1 and not the last.

I like late this year for sure, but if you have a target of a top RB, or a top QB based on your high qb scoring, just take #1 or #2 and go after him and don't overthink trying to move back 1 or 2 spots.

 

[ponchsox]

#3 is perfect.

Top 3 RB

Gronk/Luck/Rodgers in 2nd

Jeffrey, Hilton, Evans in third

4/5 good RB value

6/7 good WR value

 

[Madden Curse]

Draft position is probably the most over-thought subject in fantasy football. It doesn't matter in virtually any league. In your case just choose a pick high enough to get somebody you really like in round 1.

 

[Run It Up]

1, 2, 3, 10, 9, 8, 4, 7, 5, 6

 

[(HULK)]

As someone who has played for over a 15 years in a small league (as well as plenty of larger leagues), I strongly advise you to not take a QB early. Just take 2 late (like 10th and 11th taken or so) and you'll be fine.

Don't take a TE early either (except Gronk and only Gronk).

Given your scoring parameters, you almost certainly want to take the RB you think is the best. Pick the draft spot that lets that happen.

 

[Freelove]

I will say that even though I don't think it matters to the outcome for a good drafter, if given a choice, I tend to prefer first or last. Just because I think consecutive picking opens up some extra strategic options that other picks lack. Those bookend picks tend to be more active, and the mid-rounders more reactive.

For example, there's no surer way to effectively shrink the space between your current two picks and your next two, than to wait a while on QB, then in whatever round, go Eli/Rivers or something with those back to backs (i.e., two guys consecutively who you see as being at the top of a new tier). That's almost sure to set off a run of mid-tier QB's before your next pair of picks, none of whom you have any interest in whatsoever now.

Yet, if you have that second-to-last pick, maybe you take the first guy, and that prompts your neighbor to take the other guy at the wrap. So now you're stuck taking a guy you value less as your second, or moving on to a different strategy.

It's a minor thing, but it's a consideration.