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10 Worst Fantasy Football Cliches (1 Viewer)

BobbyLayne

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
The worst crutch arguments courtesy of Harris Football Podcast:

  1. This coach has always had good TEs / This guy had XX catches with this team last year, imagine what this new player will do. Blount had a ton of TDs last year; draft Gillislee accordingly. Situations are a factor but not more important than actual talent and capability.
  2. I like this player because he's coming off a bye & the coaching staff has been planning for it. We have no idea what's going on during the bye week. It's not a valid data point.
  3. Calling it the National Football League instead of the NFL. The FF Expert echo chamber loves this one. Extra syllables doesn't make you sound smarter. 
  4. He's going cross country / across the pond. West coast teams going east have a winning record for the last several seasons. Have you ever been on a business trip?
  5. He'll show up for the national tv game. This is like trying to condense #6 or #7 into a single game. Is that why Amari Cooper broke out against the Chiefs?
  6. He's in a contract year. Did he stop trying hard in OTAs because he got paid? Keenan Allen will stop getting hurt because he got paid? There's no data supporting this.
  7. It's a Revenge game for him. You mean like ADP versus the Vikings Week 1? Trying to divine personal motivation is a dart throw.
  8. Wait on Drafting a Quarterback - drafts are fluid, you draft on value. Positional drafting is weak. Wait for Rivers or Stafford because...wat?
  9. The Quarterback Position/The Running Back Position - many, many words. The best words. Do you eat Pizza Food?
  10. Always Start Your Studs (5b - know who your studs are; Gurley is a stud, Lamar Miller is not) - we're in Week 9, if you're gonna be sad, be sad with the guy you actually want to start.
What's your favorite cringe-worthy cliche?

 
It's snowing, they're going to do nothing but run the ball.

Ask Tom Brady about that one.

 
My favorite is always "Presence of WR2 will [help/hurt] WR1's value because [it will draw away double teams/he'll lose targets]". I love it because they're mutually exclusive, yet people will shamelessly switch between whichever one supports their argument.

 
There are too many mouths to feed or "he is gonna eat"..I want to throat punch the person every time I see this lame a@@ statement

 
"He knows the system so he will go from couch to RB2 by next Sunday"

-Chris Johnson 2017

"Spend 90% of your FAAB on the guy who will most certainly be the starter now that your guy is on IR"

-Chris Johnson 2017

(These may not be cliches, just bad advice sometimes)

 
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What gets me most is the heft these ballnerds assume for themselves. I watch as little EvilSPawN as possible but still check PTI regularly. Opening wkend, PTI's on early due to MNF doubleheader and Chadness Kiperberry's fantasy show comes on right after. The opening credits are hilarious - some balding cuckoldporn addict is barking orders, signing important documents, tossing insousciant footballs like he's not the luckiest stringer alive (like all Spornboys) but an actual authority on something of value. I know there's a beautiful dollar in the DFS & all, but c'mon.....

 
"RB X needs over 15 carries to be productive."

Sadly, the game was lost when he wasn't productive with the first 14, and now they have no choice but to pass.

 
The 3rd year breakout for young WRs. Dumb, they almost always flash early and often if they're good 

 
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Two way tie.

"You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it".

(regarding rookies) "A guy who's never even stepped on an NFL football field".

 
"Whose gonna be this year's ______?"

Usually a player who broke out under specific circumstances. Like the exact same thing is going to happen every year 

 
"Bump Finley" & "Motivate Tatum Bell"...

...wait...

...I actually liked those...

...not really.

Seriously though, as an old school guy (began playing in the 80's), I hate the over-reliance on "experts"/group-think and overly complex/misapplied statistical analysis these days.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a stats and number crunching geek, but the shark has been jumped (imo), in regards to a lot of the professional analysis I see today.

 
I enjoy when guys who did not play even High School ball talk about pad-level or stuff of that nature...

 
irish eyes said:
There are too many mouths to feed or "he is gonna eat"..I want to throat punch the person every time I see this lame a@@ statement
Click to expand...
Love this one...as an off-shoot I also enjoy how when a team adds any non-descript RB or WR some in the fantasy-world panic...it is as if they would only be content if the RB or WR they own in fantasy should be the only one an NFL should be allowed to roster...

 
trogg78 said:
Take away his best/worst game.....
Click to expand...
You have to be discerning when doing this, but removing outliers is something that is regularly done in statistical analysis. We should not totally ignore outliers but if we have a player that say scored: 2, 0, 4, 1, 30, 2, 3, 1, 2, 0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3 there is a logical argument for discounting the outlier 30 point game. There is an actual formula for determining if a number counts as an outlier

 
Ilov80s said:
You have to be discerning when doing this, but removing outliers is something that is regularly done in statistical analysis. We should not totally ignore outliers but if we have a player that say scored: 2, 0, 4, 1, 30, 2, 3, 1, 2, 0, 1, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3 there is a logical argument for discounting the outlier 30 point game. There is an actual formula for determining if a number counts as an outlier
Click to expand...
Can't remember where I heard this, but there's something like "What is his YPC without his five longest runs?" The point is not to determine whether someone is good or bad but rather how consistent they are.

 
zftcg said:
Can't remember where I heard this, but there's something like "What is his YPC without his five longest runs?" The point is not to determine whether someone is good or bad but rather how consistent they are.
Click to expand...
Not a formula but I sometimes like to "cut off" long gains at something arbitrary like 20 and see where it puts a player's numbers.  The idea being that once you've gotten behind the defense, the controlling facor on your yardage becomes "how close were you to the endzone when you started" and the yards don't mean as much toward the abilities we care about predictively.

Not a "rigorous statistical analysis" but I feel like it adds another data point to a variable-rich decisionmaking environment.

 
zftcg said:
Can't remember where I heard this, but there's something like "What is his YPC without his five longest runs?" The point is not to determine whether someone is good or bad but rather how consistent they are.
Click to expand...
We can do that pretty easily in excel/sheets if we really wanted to- it will do the calculations for us. We could get standard deviation or figure out quartiles. Calculating the  2nd Q and 3rd Q were, it would help explain consistency. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
The worst crutch arguments courtesy of Harris Football Podcast:

  1. This coach has always had good TEs / This guy had XX catches with this team last year, imagine what this new player will do. Blount had a ton of TDs last year; draft Gillislee accordingly. Situations are a factor but not more important than actual talent and capability.
  2. I like this player because he's coming off a bye & the coaching staff has been planning for it. We have no idea what's going on during the bye week. It's not a valid data point.
  3. Calling it the National Football League instead of the NFL. The FF Expert echo chamber loves this one. Extra syllables doesn't make you sound smarter. 
  4. He's going cross country / across the pond. West coast teams going east have a winning record for the last several seasons. Have you ever been on a business trip?
  5. He'll show up for the national tv game. This is like trying to condense #6 or #7 into a single game. Is that why Amari Cooper broke out against the Chiefs?
  6. He's in a contract year. Did he stop trying hard in OTAs because he got paid? Keenan Allen will stop getting hurt because he got paid? There's no data supporting this.
  7. It's a Revenge game for him. You mean like ADP versus the Vikings Week 1? Trying to divine personal motivation is a dart throw.
  8. Wait on Drafting a Quarterback - drafts are fluid, you draft on value. Positional drafting is weak. Wait for Rivers or Stafford because...wat?
  9. The Quarterback Position/The Running Back Position - many, many words. The best words. Do you eat Pizza Food?
  10. Always Start Your Studs (5b - know who your studs are; Gurley is a stud, Lamar Miller is not) - we're in Week 9, if you're gonna be sad, be sad with the guy you actually want to start.
What's your favorite cringe-worthy cliche?
Click to expand...
Great positioning for an interesting thread and good points.

I hate lame overused sports expressions as the next guy. But as a counterpoint, sometimes cliches are cliches for a reason.

I am waaaaay too lazy to do this, but I’d be interested in the stats that show/disprove:

1) Historical win record of teams coming off a bye

2) Historical win record of West Coast teams coming East and vice versa. Since both teams travel across the pond, assume it’s not as interesting as they are both affected.

3) Is the national game/SNF/MNF “under the lights” phenomena real? I assume not and really hard to baseline or compare anyway (i.e. how would you know how a player would play the same game during the day)

4) Historical performances of players playing their old team in the first game. I only bring my own sample size, but I’ve actually seen this happen more often than not.

 
Ilov80s said:
We can do that pretty easily in excel/sheets if we really wanted to- it will do the calculations for us. We could get standard deviation or figure out quartiles. Calculating the  2nd Q and 3rd Q were, it would help explain consistency. 
Click to expand...


 I think its important we realize, when trying to determine "consistency or averages" just simply tossing out the 2-3 biggest games or runs is not enough.

 Often when people try and determine averages, they not only toss out the "biggest outlier games", they throw out the "lowest outlier games" as well.

 Say take a backs last 20 performances, and simply discount his biggest 2 performances, but also take out his lowest two as well.

There is a term for this approach (or way of looking at it), but I can't think of it offhand currently.

 TZM

 
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