10 year redraft vet (1 Viewer)

[flipside]

I have been a fantasy football coach now going on ten years and have always chosen to play in redraft leagues. I have drafted for my redraft league this year and at the draft everyone decided to get a dynasty league going to have seperate....so here we go... a week goes by and I'm looking at my redraft rankings like they are a worthless pile of scraps and wondering what it takes to determine a players value over the course of a career instead of this season.

I'm drafting tonight and yes I am very unprepared..but I have until 8:00 tonight to adjust my redraft ranking list which I spent months tweaking and changing to a dynasty format accounting for players ages, true skill, contact terms, and all kinds of things I have never used when mesuring a players worth.

What should I put the most stock into when determining a players value? Raw talent? Contract years in a particular system? Age?

Where is a good website for getting info like player ages and contract lengths? Any input or usefull advice is much appreciated.

 

[tarheel1unc]

I have been a fantasy football coach now going on ten years and have always chosen to play in redraft leagues. I have drafted for my redraft league this year and at the draft everyone decided to get a dynasty league going to have seperate....so here we go... a week goes by and I'm looking at my redraft rankings like they are a worthless pile of scraps and wondering what it takes to determine a players value over the course of a career instead of this season.I'm drafting tonight and yes I am very unprepared..but I have until 8:00 tonight to adjust my redraft ranking list which I spent months tweaking and changing to a dynasty format accounting for players ages, true skill, contact terms, and all kinds of things I have never used when mesuring a players worth. What should I put the most stock into when determining a players value? Raw talent? Contract years in a particular system? Age?Where is a good website for getting info like player ages and contract lengths? Any input or usefull advice is much appreciated.

Don't let age keep you from getting a good team.

 

[flipside]

Right now I'm think'n just merge the football guys Dynasty draft rankings with my own redraft rankings and try and account for a players age while doing it...A site with some quich referance info with ages and contract lengths would make things easier.

 

[TheWick]

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

 

[flipside]

It seems to me like age would be one of the most important things to consider?

That dynasty site looks pretty good.

 

[steelcityman]

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

that site makes me feel better about drafting Matty Ice a little earlier than ADP had him going.

 

[flipside]

Maybe focusing more on age when drafting the runningback position and less with the others is the best.

 

[flipside]

Since the Running Back position is often everchanging and new studs emerge sometimes out of nowhere, maybe I should be looking to take the QB position ealier than I normally would in a redraft.

 

[-jb-]

Since the Running Back position is often everchanging and new studs emerge sometimes out of nowhere, maybe I should be looking to take the QB position ealier than I normally would in a redraft.

I've gotten into discussions about this. I totally agree with you, but most don't. Some folks contend that, because of the shorter shelf life of a RB, they are more important. I disagree. Yes, their shelf life is shorter, but there are far more serviceable RBs entering the league every year compared to QBs. Drafting two QBs, one top flight established guy (Brady/Brees/Manning), plus one guy with a strong future (Ryan) will set you up for the long haul. There will be plenty of chances to draft RBs over the years.

 

[Sack-Religious]

I was in a similar situation as you the other night. Long time redrafter, with my initial dynasty draft.

The shelf-life on a stud WR is much longer, generally speaking, than a stud RB. Likewise with QB, especially in 6 pt per all TD and PPR formats. If your league isn't PPR or all TD's 6, getting better RB's may be a better route to take.

I ended up going WR, WR, WR, QB in my draft (drafting in the 8th spot). My RB's aren't great, but they're servicable and you can usually pluck a good one off the WW or draft one in future seasons. IMO, a young stud WR core and a good young QB put your new franchise on very solid footing.

 

[stevegamer]

You want a stud QB & a stud WR. Having a second stud WR will help a lot, or even a stud TE who keeps going. If you secure that, and get enough RB options, you'll be okay.

If it's IDP, DB's are basically fungible, there are few stud DL, so get one of the young ones, and get one stud LB if you can, you can find some LB3 types annualy, but the stud guys are hard to nail down.

Don't be afraid to grab an "older" player who's established and good to help out at a non-RB position. Having those guys on the roster will help.

 

[Dave Stauff]

Take a look at the threads on Dynasty rookie drafts. This year's is not much different from the norm. RB's go off the board fast and furious, a couple top tier WRs may be sprinkled in, and the rookie QBs fall into the 1.08-1.12 range or later. So you have to ask yourself "If I field a competitive team and make the playoffs every year, where am I going to get the ammo to get a high enough draft pick to get a stud RB to add to my corps?" I'm a strong believer in grabbing as much young talent at RB as possible. I'd be targeting the top RBs from the past three years drafts early and often. Then I'd grab me a rookie QB (Stafford is my preference) before grabbing the guy I'd actually expect to start for me this year (a serviceable journeyman). There are those that would argue not to sacrifice production this year for future potential, but I believe there has to be some balance in that approach. If you're the guy who ends up with Tomlinson and Westbrook as your RB's, it's going to be a long, hard road to recovery very soon.

Edited to add: Your initial draft position should dictate your 1st round pick to some extent. Fitz, Johnson and Johnson should be considered in the last half of round one due to their projected career length. But even if you get one of these, I'd still be taqrgeting the young RBs early and often.

 

[Bad_Mo]

I have been a fantasy football coach...

For some reason, I found this statement to be really funny. I've never thought of myself as such.

 

[flipside]

Well, I have the number 2 spot in a 12 team PPR Dynasty (1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE K TD) and I don't think I can let MJD go by.lol

For my 23rd pick and 26th... it will probably be QB WR or WR WR....then I get an older back way down at the 47th overall pick. Maybe Larry Johnson......hahahaha The more I look at it the harder it is going to be to get any kind of value from the running back spot in the 4.11 spot....any suggestions on rounds 2 and 3 ......4 and 5

 

[flipside]

I'm starting to see my redraft rankings are pretty useless right now....well not useless but definitely not even similar to what I need to be looking at to determine who to draft.

 

[TheFanatic]

Well, I have the number 2 spot in a 12 team PPR Dynasty (1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE K TD) and I don't think I can let MJD go by.lolFor my 23rd pick and 26th... it will probably be QB WR or WR WR....then I get an older back way down at the 47th overall pick. Maybe Larry Johnson......hahahaha The more I look at it the harder it is going to be to get any kind of value from the running back spot in the 4.11 spot....any suggestions on rounds 2 and 3 ......4 and 5

If you pick second go RB, WR, WR. QB's play for a long time. Plenty down the line.Second, I agree with the age thing. See, everyone hears the term dynasty and thinks about long term and building a young team for the future. Somebody has to win the thing this year. A guy like LT or BWest will go really late. But those two guys can help you this year big time. In an initial dynasty LT and Sproles could be huge. Guy for this year and maybe next and Sproles long term (if he becomes the starter). Let someone else build a team of all rooks and suck for the next 3 years. He'll be trading you the rooks for proven players shortly....

 

[Mainevent]

If you are not getting Brees/Brady, I think it's best to go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn, if Rodgers is there I'd probably have to think hard about taking him if it's a 6TD league. Then at the 4/5 look to see what QBs are on the board (if you didn't get one before), maybe one of the younger guys like Ryan/Cutler, or if Rivers/McNabb fell, otherwise I'd say WR/RB or vice versa. Maybe a player like Felix Jones would be a guy I'd pull the trigger on earlier in dynasty, or wait a couple rounds and try to grab McCoy/Donald Brown.

But as stated earlier, WRs and QBs have longer shelf lives, so if you get studs at those positions, just makes improving your team that much easier. I am in a dynasty going into the 3rd year, and it's PPR, and it is impossible to get a stud QB or a young stud WR. RBs seems to hold much less trade value, but we also do have a super flex allowing for a 2QB start (4pnts PaTD).

 

[Cookiemonster]

I also agree with the posts about getting young, stud WRs and a long term, top-flight QB. Those positions are much harder to fill down the road. PPR and more starting WRs than RBs REALLY accentuates this. Both positions are more consistent year in and year out, and last longer as well. You can get some Larry Johnsons, or Ced Bensons to hold you over for a while. If it's PPR and 3 or more WRs, I'd consider Calvin or Fitz as high as Peterson or MJD. I'd have a hard time with QBs in a startup dynasty right now. All the best are over 30, and the separation isn't great for the middle-tier guys.

 

[TheFanatic]

If you are not getting Brees/Brady, I think it's best to go WR/WR at the 2/3 turn, if Rodgers is there I'd probably have to think hard about taking him if it's a 6TD league. Then at the 4/5 look to see what QBs are on the board (if you didn't get one before), maybe one of the younger guys like Ryan/Cutler, or if Rivers/McNabb fell, otherwise I'd say WR/RB or vice versa. Maybe a player like Felix Jones would be a guy I'd pull the trigger on earlier in dynasty, or wait a couple rounds and try to grab McCoy/Donald Brown.

But as stated earlier, WRs and QBs have longer shelf lives, so if you get studs at those positions, just makes improving your team that much easier. I am in a dynasty going into the 3rd year, and it's PPR, and it is impossible to get a stud QB or a young stud WR. RBs seems to hold much less trade value, but we also do have a super flex allowing for a 2QB start (4pnts PaTD).

I would say that RB, TE might be the way to go here. If you can get one of the top 4-5 TE's go TE there. See, guys are going to pass on a guy like McNabb and Palmer in favor of youth at the position. In a draft like this I can almost guarantee Matt Ryan will go beforr DMac simply because everyone will overvalue youth. Favre may go practically undrafted. He could really help this year. You could probably get Warner, Favre, Hasselbeck, very late and have the best QB trio in the league. Snag Leinart and place him on the bench. He may come off like a scrub right now but he still gets to throw to Fitz and Boldin if he ever takes over the job...Maybe pass on a QB in the 4-5 and grab a TE there.

Speaking of TE's and youth being valued, watch how many young TE's go before Dallas Clark. He's 30, proven and on a great offense. But guys like Olsen and Carlson will likely go ahead of him. A combo of Clark, Finley and Cook would be great value at TE that will contribute at a high level immediately and pay long term dividends with Finley and Cook.

 

[flipside]

Thanks for the advice and input guys.

Anything else for a Dynasty newbie, draft position analysis, maybe some opinion about age and what is the 1 factor for ranking players or how you rank them, mabey a really good site to look at for Dynasty info?hmm hmm?lol

 

[Cookiemonster]

Thanks for the advice and input guys. Anything else for a Dynasty newbie, draft position analysis, maybe some opinion about age and what is the 1 factor for ranking players or how you rank them, mabey a really good site to look at for Dynasty info?hmm hmm?lol

The best QBs go 'till about 37. The best RBs 'till about 31. The best WRs 'till about 35. They can be good for a 1 or two year band-aid if you need 'em. If you go heavy with WRs and a QB or TE, a guy like Larry Johnson could hold you over 'till some younger RBs or waiver-wire gems can be unearthed.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

1) Talent >>> Situation

2) You want as many "difference makers" in your nucleus as possible

3) Don't be afraid to overpay for difference-making studs.

4) The Dynasty rankings thread. Learn it. Live it. Love it.

Good luck

 

[Dave Stauff]

Consider trading out of the 2 hole - down to about 6-8 - and try to move up with a 3rd for a 5th or 6th in exchange. Somebody will want MJD more than you really need him as a core player, and you'll get another quality guy in the top 36.

 

[Tick]

I'd factor talent in very highly - a guy like Tashard Choice would be someone to bump up due to talent despite his situation... those things have a way of working out if a player is good enough.

I like to start a dynasty with a good young QB (Rodgers and Rivers would be targets for me) and good young WRs, then fill in with older RBs. It works most of the time, though I porked up a startup draft last year when I grabbed mediocre players in good situations.

 

[stuckinthemuck]

I'm starting my second year in a dynasty league. The tendency in my league is to overvalue youth and undervalue the vets. Can you truly predict who's going to be ranked as the top twenty players two years from now? The high level of variance in rankings for this year shows how hard it is to see inside a crystal ball. Thus, I'm shifting from a two-to-three year perspective to "Who's going to help me win NOW?"

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm starting my second year in a dynasty league. The tendency in my league is to overvalue youth and undervalue the vets. Can you truly predict who's going to be ranked as the top twenty players two years from now? The high level of variance in rankings for this year shows how hard it is to see inside a crystal ball. Thus, I'm shifting from a two-to-three year perspective to "Who's going to help me win NOW?"

Everyone will be thinking about a guy they can have for 8 years but very few players will stay on a roster that long. Longest player on my roster in my main dynasty league was a tie. Both McNabb and Longwell were on my team from 2000 to 2007.

 

[Easy Money]

started a dynasty league 4 years ago one guy draft all proven vets and made the superbowl that year. one year later his team fell appart and he has been rebuiding since. definitly good to mix in some younger guys with a few older ones.

 

[stevegamer]

I'm starting my second year in a dynasty league. The tendency in my league is to overvalue youth and undervalue the vets. Can you truly predict who's going to be ranked as the top twenty players two years from now? The high level of variance in rankings for this year shows how hard it is to see inside a crystal ball. Thus, I'm shifting from a two-to-three year perspective to "Who's going to help me win NOW?"

It depends on the position. For example, I'd be very comfortable saying that Brady/Brees/PManning will still be QB1's and that Fitzgerald/Wayne/CalJohnson will still be WR1's, barring a sudden injury. RB's I'm not so comfortable on.