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$10k payout on $3 parlay. How would you hedge? (1 Viewer)

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Already hit Kansas, the Avalanche and the Warriors to win it all. Now needs the Bills to win the Super Bowl. 
 

https://theathletic.com/3387326/2022/06/29/buffalo-bills-fan-parlay-bet/?amp=1
 

I am a big Bills fan, but I would be trying to hedge this bet in this guy’s shoes.

How would you do that, bet a few hundred bucks on each of the other favorites in the top 5?  
Something else?

Let it ride?
Maybe bet something significant on the Bills missing the playoffs.  That has to pay like +300 or +400 I would assume.

If they make the playoffs bet against them every game martingale style.

You can maybe guarantee yourself a grand

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Site I just looked at has the bills +350 to miss the playoffs.

Fun fact, Denver, KC, Chargers, and Raiders are all ++ to miss the playoffs.

 

Gally

Footballguy
I probably don't do anything at the moment.  Probably start thinking about doing something mid season as I see what the BIlls are doing.  

ETA:  Although betting something now for Bills missing the playoffs is probably a nice hedge.  Maybe bet a minimal amount to cover the initial wager plus some for your trouble.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:

General Malaise

Poop Lord
Yeah, I'd wait.  I don't think the Bills are missing the playoffs. Unless Tua learns how to throw deep, there isn't another team in this division that can best them.  

Once the playoff field is set, you could put larger wagers on the other favorites to win it all and smaller wagers on the longer shots.  

Or bet against the Bills each playoff game.  

But for $3 cost basis?  Man, let that ish ride and be a legend!

 

Dan Lambskin

Footballguy
Yeah I’d wait for playoffs and throughout the season get some free bets down on other AFC contenders 

probably make some small hedges during the playoffs 

 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Yeah, I'd wait.  I don't think the Bills are missing the playoffs. Unless Tua learns how to throw deep, there isn't another team in this division that can best them.  

Once the playoff field is set, you could put larger wagers on the other favorites to win it all and smaller wagers on the longer shots.  

Or bet against the Bills each playoff game.  

But for $3 cost basis?  Man, let that ish ride and be a legend!
This

 

snellman

Footballguy
Already hit Kansas, the Avalanche and the Warriors to win it all. Now needs the Bills to win the Super Bowl. 
 

https://theathletic.com/3387326/2022/06/29/buffalo-bills-fan-parlay-bet/?amp=1
 

I am a big Bills fan, but I would be trying to hedge this bet in this guy’s shoes.

How would you do that, bet a few hundred bucks on each of the other favorites in the top 5?  
Something else?

Let it ride?
See what the cash out option is when the playoffs start? 

 

parasaurolophus

Footballguy

elguapo07

Footballguy
Selling the ticket on prop swap is the answer.   Ticket is worth $10,500 and bills are +650.  You could sell ticket for $1300 and the buyer would be getting about 7-1 which are better odds than most sites offer.  I've sold parlays before on prop swap and if you sell at odds slightly better than market value someone should buy it. 

Take your profit. 

 

jon_mx

Footballguy
You don't hedge on a$3 bet.


The original bet size is not what matters.  If the payout is big enough, it is worth hedging.  Say if you had a life changing amount like $1 million payout and you weren't confident in the final outcome, you hedge that bet all day.  

 

jon_mx

Footballguy
Selling the ticket on prop swap is the answer.   Ticket is worth $10,500 and bills are +650.  You could sell ticket for $1300 and the buyer would be getting about 7-1 which are better odds than most sites offer.  I've sold parlays before on prop swap and if you sell at odds slightly better than market value someone should buy it. 

Take your profit. 


I would not do that. That is too little and the Bills are too good.  I would gamble on the Bills making it to the AFC championship game and then I would hedge.  Say it's the Bills vs. KC and the Bill are 3 point favorites.  I would put $1500 on KC+3 and hope the Bills win by 1.  And then if the Bills go to the SB and are 3 point favorites against Green Bay.  I would do about the same, $3000 on the Packers with the points. 

The absolute worst case you end up with $1500 and the best case you could actually end up with $14,500.   If the Bills are dogs, it will cost you more and you will have to bet whatever odds they give for the other team to win.  But I would gamble on the Bills to advance before I hedged. 

 

elguapo07

Footballguy
I would not do that. That is too little and the Bills are too good.  I would gamble on the Bills making it to the AFC championship game and then I would hedge.  Say it's the Bills vs. KC and the Bill are 3 point favorites.  I would put $1500 on KC+3 and hope the Bills win by 1.  And then if the Bills go to the SB and are 3 point favorites against Green Bay.  I would do about the same, $3000 on the Packers with the points. 

The absolute worst case you end up with $1500 and the best case you could actually end up with $14,500.   If the Bills are dogs, it will cost you more and you will have to bet whatever odds they give for the other team to win.  But I would gamble on the Bills to advance before I hedged. 
You could but what if Allen suffers a season ending injury early on, you might as well rip up the ticket. Current MV is $1300+ which is not a bad return for such a small investment.  You'll never go broke taking a profit. 

 

KGB

Footballguy
I was 1 pick away on like a $10 to $1500 parlay in vegas.  just had the night game.  Lost all my money and couldnt hedge.

Guess what!!!

I lost

 

jon_mx

Footballguy
You could but what if Allen suffers a season ending injury early on, you might as well rip up the ticket. Current MV is $1300+ which is not a bad return for such a small investment.  You'll never go broke taking a profit. 


That is why they call it gambling.  But the Bills are -180 to win their division.  I don't think it makes sense to hedge mathematically before you think there is a reasonable chance of failure.  If $1300 is a big amount to a person, then by all means do it.  

 

elguapo07

Footballguy
That is why they call it gambling.  But the Bills are -180 to win their division.  I don't think it makes sense to hedge mathematically before you think there is a reasonable chance of failure.  If $1300 is a big amount to a person, then by all means do it.  
From the article the bettor seems like a small casual bettor so a $1300 profit would be a nice score for him.  

 

Zow

Footballguy
Those saying don’t hedge are crazy to me. I’d probably wait right now or do like somebody suggest above and sell the ticket. 

 

parasaurolophus

Footballguy
I have a JT Poston and Adrian Meronk ticket. If Meronk wins and JT is leading down final stretch, you can bet your rear I will be hedging on anybody live at the end. 

Similar to how I had a Poston/Fox parlay to lead first round. So with 3-5 holes left for late guys on Thursday, it was obvious who still had a chance to lead and all the odds were crazy long. Like 200-1, 400-1, and 800-1 so I placed like 100 bucks worth of bets to lock in a fat profit. 

But not before that, since there are just to too many variables where I could still lose all ways. 

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Selling the ticket could be an option if there is someone who overbids it's current value. But then you will be waiting every week for Josh Allen to break his leg.

 

jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
I agree with the others about there being no hedge. I think you’d probably either need to sell the ticket or just wait. If you believe that the Bills are going to win and will have a great season—you could wait until the odds of them winning it all would give your ticket a higher implied value—and then sell. 

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
There is no hedge right now. If you think the Bills are going to be good then gamble away. Once the playoffs for the NFL hit then you will have several chances to hedge. You will probably even have several chances to hedge where you can win both sides. 

 

elguapo07

Footballguy
Guy has $1300 in hand,  sell it and take your profit.  AFC just got much better and getting the bye will be key.  Again, the bettor seems like the $1300 would be a nice payoff for him and his family, its a no brainer.  

 

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