#11 - The Most Under-Rated Pick Under The New CBA (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

Under the new CBA teams have a 5th year option on 1st round picks. However, the 5th year salary is calculated differently based on whether a player was a top 10 pick or not.

If a player was a top 10 pick his salary will be calculated as the average of the top 10 players at his position the previous year.

What makes the #11-32 picks so valuable is that the 5th salary is calculated as the average of the 3rd through 25th players at his position the previous year.

The first player taken at #11 under the new CBA was J.J. Watt. The 5th year option gives the Texans tremendous leverage in negotiating a long term deal with Watt. If he doesn't sign on extension he will be paid roughly the same as the 14th highest paid DE this year - which is Wimbley at $7M. Not chump change by any means but it's a far cry from Mario Williams' $16M.

 

[Sweet Love]

Good topic...I've always wondered how much weight teams put on tiers like this (i.e. the 33rd pick of the draft).

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Wow, I hadn't seen this before. Depending on the scenario, it seems like it would be worthwhile trading 8/9/10 straight up for 11.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Wow, I hadn't seen this before. Depending on the scenario, it seems like it would be worthwhile trading 8/9/10 straight up for 11.

I'm waiting for the first time a GM whose team is OTC at #10 realizes this, sees that the team at #11 doesn't have the same needs, and swaps the pick straight up.

Not because it would be any sort of validation of the theory, just because I want to see Eisen and Mayock's heads actually explode on-set.

 

[Terpman22]

Yeah. The first instance I heard of strategizing with the way the new rookie contracts work was when Jerruh reached on Travis Frederic in the 1st round so he could an extra year on his contract. Interesting topic.

 

[cstu]

Yeah. The first instance I heard of strategizing with the way the new rookie contracts work was when Jerruh reached on Travis Frederic in the 1st round so he could an extra year on his contract. Interesting topic.

I have a feeling we could see Texans or another team trade up with the Seahawks specifically to draft a QB in the 1st to gain that extra year.

 

[gandalas]

they could always pull a vikings move and simply wait for the team after them to pick a player after the clock ran out...

 

[amnesiac]

they could always pull a vikings move and simply wait for the team after them to pick a player after the clock ran out...

exactly what i was thinking.

 

[cstu]

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Yeah. The first instance I heard of strategizing with the way the new rookie contracts work was when Jerruh reached on Travis Frederic in the 1st round so he could an extra year on his contract. Interesting topic.

I have a feeling we could see Texans or another team trade up with the Seahawks specifically to draft a QB in the 1st to gain that extra year.

Granted it was the Vikings instead of the Texans, but you nailed this.

 

[Borden]

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

Do you know off hand how much cap room they have?

 

[cstu]

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Titans&Year=2014

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

Do you know off hand how much cap room they have?

$19M

Looks good for turning things around next year.

 

[cstu]

Thought I'd update this with what happened with Kaepernick's contract. He was drafted 2.36 so the 49ers didn't have a 5th year option on him, but they were able to sign him to an extension that was extremely favorable to them (boils down to a series of one year contract at ~$13M each).

Dalton (drafted 2.35) is in the final year of his deal and hasn't negotiated an extension yet. It will be interesting what he signs for and how much not having the 5th year option hurt the Bengals' leverage.

 

[Bri]

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

He's playing RT.

I wouldn't be surprised if Oher is cut. Word is Munchak+Armstrong had the backups trained well and Oher's not standing out at all.

 

[cstu]

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

He's playing RT.

I wouldn't be surprised if Oher is cut. Word is Munchak+Armstrong had the backups trained well and Oher's not standing out at all.

He would need to be playing really poorly to get cut. He just signed a contract that guarantees him for the next two years. He could become an expensive backup though.

Roos is in the last year of his contract so they could let him play it out and have Lewan take over at LT next year.

 

[Bri]

The Titans get Taylor Lewan with the 11th pick and have a LT on a cheap contract for 5 years. They also cut/trade Michael Roos and save $6.6M this year.

He's playing RT.

I wouldn't be surprised if Oher is cut. Word is Munchak+Armstrong had the backups trained well and Oher's not standing out at all.

He would need to be playing really poorly to get cut. He just signed a contract that guarantees him for the next two years. He could become an expensive backup though.

Roos is in the last year of his contract so they could let him play it out and have Lewan take over at LT next year.

Roos was supposed to be...as you said, but now it's that he is far better than expected and Whisenhunt+Co have raised an eyebrow.

In regards to Oher's contract, I don't understand it all well enough and haven't done enough reading to be sure. "High dollar" free agents always make teams the initial year. Doesn't everything kick in week 1 and isn't so much of our discussions all based upon a likely to be earned figure?

There's plenty of time for him to step up and if he doesn't then someone better post a video of Ozzie Newsome laughing. There's not enough linemen news to know enough here. Could be the backups came to OTA fired up and ready to roll and Oher was a veteran considering it no big deal.

Roos has always fascinated me and I'm an enormous fan.

I heard a rumor that he was available for trade this offseason but anyone notable that I asked said they didn't hear that.

He allowed four sacks and two sacks the last two years. 2010 and his age caused all this stink, but that statistic is elite.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/players/michael-roos-145948/

Yet another part of Loggains horrific offense was to shy away from the pro bowl tackle and awesome blocking TE and run up the middle instead. Maybe there just wasn't enough work for Roos and the tapes Whisenhunt looked at...idk but today Roos looks great, Whisenhunt seems a little bit surprised at just how good he is, and the Titans "have to" think about extending him.

David Stewart and Roos were bookends for much of their careers and intertwined and all. Stewart broke his leg and earlier in the year had shoulder and ankle surgery. I don't see that anyone signed Stewart so i'm going to guess teams are waiting to see how he fares after surgery. Anyhow this is not the case for Roos, he is not this old guy that's broken down despite their careers intertwined. I think some of Stewart's injuries as he got older raised Qs about Roos.

 

[cstu]

Vikings with the 11th pick of the 2015 draft.

 

[cstu]

Watt - 5 years/$54M ($10.8M average) guaranteed (except for ~$2M), non-guaranteed $13M (2019), $15.5M (2020), $17.5M (2021)

Suh - 3 years/$60M ($20M average) guaranteed, non-guaranteed $17M (2018), $19M (2019), $18M (2020)

 

[cstu]

Huge difference in 5th year options between the #10 and #11 picks in the draft.

In this year's draft there two CB's were taken #10 (Giants Eli Apple) and #11 (Bucs Vernon Hargreaves).  The Giants will have a much tougher decision in four years having to decide to give Apple $12M+ vs. the Bucs' decision to pay Hargreaves $8M+.