1st and 2nd Round Review (1 Viewer)

[red]

every year, it always seems like 50% of the top 24 GREATLY underperform their draft spot. i don't just mean first round pick performing at the level of your 3rd or 4th rounder, but your first round pick giving you squat week in and week out. so, if everyone has a 50:50 chance of drafting crapola in the first two rounds, then the true art of winning in FF is guessing right (or hedging your bets in rounds 1 and 2) and striking gold in rounds 3-6. not earth shattering news. just pointing out that come draft time, the focus should be not on who is #1 overall or who do you take after the Big Three, but rather, who is the safe pick (injury risk, team dynamics, new coaches/systems or old ones if you're considering any raider player, etc.). it's the age old addage: you don't win championships based on your first round pick, but you can certainly lose them.

1. LT

2. SA - INJURED

3. LJ - STARTING TO COME ON

4. Tiki - NO TDs

5. S Jax - WHERE ARE THE TDs

6. Edge - BUST

7. Ronnie Brown

8. Rudi - TAILING OFF

9. Lamont - BUST

10. Peyton

11. Caddy - BUST

12. Portis

13. Steve Smith - OFT INJURED

14. CJ - BUST

15. McGahee - WHERE ARE THE TDs

16. Fitz - INJURED

17. Westy

18. Holt

19. Harrison

20. FWP

21. Reggie Bush - BUST

22. Randy Moss - BUST BUT STARTING TO COME ON

23. Anquan

24. TO

i'm sure you can edit this list re: the top 24 in the ADP and argue what constitutes a bust and who is one so far and who is not. i still firmly believe that it roughly equates to 50% of the top 25 = bust/injured.

 

[The Duff Man]

Does this hold true if you look at rounds 3/4, 5/6?

 

[SSOG]

Does this hold true if you look at rounds 3/4, 5/6?

At some point, no. I mean, there's no such thing as a 19th round bust. I've never sat around and said "Man, I'm really sore that Ernest Wilford never came on, that bum cost me a 17th rounder!"At some point, you become low enough in the draft that a player is more likely to outperform his draft position than underperform it. That doesn't mean that these picks are more valuable than first rounders- an underperforming 1st-rounder can actually hold more value than the entire 15th round, sometimes- it just means that it's harder to call them "busts" when you spent so little on them in the first place.As for rounds 3-4... yeah, they're just as riddled with busts. My motto while drafting is always that 50% of all draft picks bust. Round 5-6 is when you start getting more gems and fewer busts. Here's last season's ADP to demonstrate-Round 11. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/102. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/83. RB Priest Holmes, KC/54. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/85. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/86. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/97. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/108. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/39. RB Clinton Portis, Was/310. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/311. RB Corey Dillon, NE/712. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3Round 213. WR Randy Moss, Oak/514. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/515. RB Julius Jones, Dal/916. RB Ahman Green, GB/617. RB Tiki Barber, NYG/518. RB Rudi Johnson, Cin/1019. WR Torry Holt, StL/920. RB Curtis Martin, NYJ/821. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/622. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/623. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/824. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9Round 325. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/1026. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/527. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/628. WR Javon Walker, GB/629. WR Joe Horn, NO/1030. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/331. TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/532. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/833. WR Hines Ward, Pit/434. RB Carnell Williams, TB/735. TE Antonio Gates, SD/1036. WR Darrell Jackson, Sea/8Round 437. WR Nate Burleson, Min/538. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/639. QB Marc Bulger, StL/940. WR Roy Williams, Det/341. WR Steve Smith, Car/742. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/743. WR Michael Clayton, TB/744. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/845. QB Trent Green, KC/546. RB Tatum Bell, Den/947. RB Chris Brown, Ten/1048. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4Round 549. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/750. WR Anquan Boldin, Ari/651. WR Drew Bennett, Ten/1052. RB Michael Bennett, Min/553. TE Jason Witten, Dal/954. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/555. QB Michael Vick, Atl/856. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/857. QB Brett Favre, GB/658. WR Jerry Porter, Oak/559. WR Donald Driver, GB/660. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6Round 661. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/662. QB Tom Brady, NE/763. RB Cedric Benson, Chi/464. TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG/565. TE Alge Crumpler, Atl/866. WR Isaac Bruce, StL/967. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/868. RB Larry Johnson, KC/569. TE Todd Heap, Bal/370. WR Chris Chambers, Mia/471. RB Thomas Jones, Chi/472. WR Derrick Mason, Bal/3

 

[j3r3m3y]

Does this hold true if you look at rounds 3/4, 5/6?

At some point, no. I mean, there's no such thing as a 19th round bust. I've never sat around and said "Man, I'm really sore that Ernest Wilford never came on, that bum cost me a 17th rounder!"At some point, you become low enough in the draft that a player is more likely to outperform his draft position than underperform it. That doesn't mean that these picks are more valuable than first rounders- an underperforming 1st-rounder can actually hold more value than the entire 15th round, sometimes- it just means that it's harder to call them "busts" when you spent so little on them in the first place.As for rounds 3-4... yeah, they're just as riddled with busts. My motto while drafting is always that 50% of all draft picks bust. Round 5-6 is when you start getting more gems and fewer busts. Here's last season's ADP to demonstrate-Round 11. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/102. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/83. RB Priest Holmes, KC/54. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/85. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/86. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/97. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/108. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/39. RB Clinton Portis, Was/310. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/311. RB Corey Dillon, NE/712. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3Round 213. WR Randy Moss, Oak/514. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/515. RB Julius Jones, Dal/916. RB Ahman Green, GB/617. RB Tiki Barber, NYG/518. RB Rudi Johnson, Cin/1019. WR Torry Holt, StL/920. RB Curtis Martin, NYJ/821. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/622. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/623. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/824. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9Round 325. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/1026. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/527. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/628. WR Javon Walker, GB/629. WR Joe Horn, NO/1030. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/331. TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/532. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/833. WR Hines Ward, Pit/434. RB Carnell Williams, TB/735. TE Antonio Gates, SD/1036. WR Darrell Jackson, Sea/8Round 437. WR Nate Burleson, Min/538. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/639. QB Marc Bulger, StL/940. WR Roy Williams, Det/341. WR Steve Smith, Car/742. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/743. WR Michael Clayton, TB/744. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/845. QB Trent Green, KC/546. RB Tatum Bell, Den/947. RB Chris Brown, Ten/1048. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4Round 549. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/750. WR Anquan Boldin, Ari/651. WR Drew Bennett, Ten/1052. RB Michael Bennett, Min/553. TE Jason Witten, Dal/954. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/555. QB Michael Vick, Atl/856. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/857. QB Brett Favre, GB/658. WR Jerry Porter, Oak/559. WR Donald Driver, GB/660. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6Round 661. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/662. QB Tom Brady, NE/763. RB Cedric Benson, Chi/464. TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG/565. TE Alge Crumpler, Atl/866. WR Isaac Bruce, StL/967. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/868. RB Larry Johnson, KC/569. TE Todd Heap, Bal/370. WR Chris Chambers, Mia/471. RB Thomas Jones, Chi/472. WR Derrick Mason, Bal/3

This goes right along with the expression:You won't win your league in the first 2 rounds, but you can lose it. You win the league in the 4th/5th and later rounds.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Does this hold true if you look at rounds 3/4, 5/6?

At some point, no. I mean, there's no such thing as a 19th round bust. I've never sat around and said "Man, I'm really sore that Ernest Wilford never came on, that bum cost me a 17th rounder!"At some point, you become low enough in the draft that a player is more likely to outperform his draft position than underperform it. That doesn't mean that these picks are more valuable than first rounders- an underperforming 1st-rounder can actually hold more value than the entire 15th round, sometimes- it just means that it's harder to call them "busts" when you spent so little on them in the first place.As for rounds 3-4... yeah, they're just as riddled with busts. My motto while drafting is always that 50% of all draft picks bust. Round 5-6 is when you start getting more gems and fewer busts. Here's last season's ADP to demonstrate-Round 11. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/102. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/83. RB Priest Holmes, KC/54. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/85. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/86. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/97. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/108. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/39. RB Clinton Portis, Was/310. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/311. RB Corey Dillon, NE/712. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3Round 213. WR Randy Moss, Oak/514. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/515. RB Julius Jones, Dal/916. RB Ahman Green, GB/617. RB Tiki Barber, NYG/518. RB Rudi Johnson, Cin/1019. WR Torry Holt, StL/920. RB Curtis Martin, NYJ/821. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/622. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/623. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/824. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9Round 325. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/1026. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/527. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/628. WR Javon Walker, GB/629. WR Joe Horn, NO/1030. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/331. TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/532. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/833. WR Hines Ward, Pit/434. RB Carnell Williams, TB/735. TE Antonio Gates, SD/1036. WR Darrell Jackson, Sea/8Round 437. WR Nate Burleson, Min/538. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/639. QB Marc Bulger, StL/940. WR Roy Williams, Det/341. WR Steve Smith, Car/742. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/743. WR Michael Clayton, TB/744. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/845. QB Trent Green, KC/546. RB Tatum Bell, Den/947. RB Chris Brown, Ten/1048. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4Round 549. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/750. WR Anquan Boldin, Ari/651. WR Drew Bennett, Ten/1052. RB Michael Bennett, Min/553. TE Jason Witten, Dal/954. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/555. QB Michael Vick, Atl/856. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/857. QB Brett Favre, GB/658. WR Jerry Porter, Oak/559. WR Donald Driver, GB/660. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6Round 661. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/662. QB Tom Brady, NE/763. RB Cedric Benson, Chi/464. TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG/565. TE Alge Crumpler, Atl/866. WR Isaac Bruce, StL/967. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/868. RB Larry Johnson, KC/569. TE Todd Heap, Bal/370. WR Chris Chambers, Mia/471. RB Thomas Jones, Chi/472. WR Derrick Mason, Bal/3

This goes right along with the expression:You won't win your league in the first 2 rounds, but you can lose it. You win the league in the 4th/5th and later rounds.

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

 

[j3r3m3y]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

 

[Ilov80s]

every year, it always seems like 50% of the top 24 GREATLY underperform their draft spot. i don't just mean first round pick performing at the level of your 3rd or 4th rounder, but your first round pick giving you squat week in and week out. so, if everyone has a 50:50 chance of drafting crapola in the first two rounds, then the true art of winning in FF is guessing right (or hedging your bets in rounds 1 and 2) and striking gold in rounds 3-6. not earth shattering news. just pointing out that come draft time, the focus should be not on who is #1 overall or who do you take after the Big Three, but rather, who is the safe pick (injury risk, team dynamics, new coaches/systems or old ones if you're considering any raider player, etc.). it's the age old addage: you don't win championships based on your first round pick, but you can certainly lose them.1. LT2. SA - INJURED3. LJ - STARTING TO COME ON4. Tiki - NO TDs5. S Jax - WHERE ARE THE TDs6. Edge - BUST7. Ronnie Brown8. Rudi - TAILING OFF9. Lamont - BUST10. Peyton11. Caddy - BUST12. Portis13. Steve Smith - OFT INJURED14. CJ - BUST15. McGahee - WHERE ARE THE TDs16. Fitz - INJURED17. Westy18. Holt19. Harrison20. FWP21. Reggie Bush - BUST22. Randy Moss - BUST BUT STARTING TO COME ON23. Anquan24. TOi'm sure you can edit this list re: the top 24 in the ADP and argue what constitutes a bust and who is one so far and who is not. i still firmly believe that it roughly equates to 50% of the top 25 = bust/injured.

Not to turn this into an LJ thread, but how do you figure he is starting to come on? In non-PPR he is the 3rd best back for ppg.

 

[red]

Not to turn this into an LJ thread, but how do you figure he is starting to come on? In non-PPR he is the 3rd best back for ppg.

he had a slow start not getting into the end zone until october. sure he had 100 yards in week 2, but people were talking early about how he was a bust (see HERE)...he's certainly earned his draft position since...

 

[delusional]

This season has been very wierd.

There are more busts then solid players in the first few rounds.

 

[One]

Not to turn this into an LJ thread, but how do you figure he is starting to come on? In non-PPR he is the 3rd best back for ppg.

but people were talking early about how he was a bust (see HERE)...he's certainly earned his draft position since...

that threads a joke. where are those people now?

 

[Buckna]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

In 165 12 team drafts this summer at Antsports, his ADP was 5.12.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

In 165 12 team drafts this summer at Antsports, his ADP was 5.12.

How about in drafts within 3 weeks of the start of the season?Summer drafts are useless.

 

[tommyGunZ]

love the "WHERE ARE THE TDS" part

 

[Liquid Tension]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

Well, in my league he went at the end of the 4th round which is a little earlier than most thought, but i was going to take him at the 2nd pick in the 5th round so I thought around 4th was OK? I believe the ADP had him around the middle to late 5th which I thought was a little late. I had traded away my later 4th (for Gates) and thought the early 3rd was too early to take him.

 

[Marc Levin]

every year, it always seems like 50% of the top 24 GREATLY underperform their draft spot.

I don't think it is "seems like"I think it "is" true - I think it is true as part and parcel of the 50%-ish turnover every year in top-12 RBs and top-12 WRs.

 

[Marc Levin]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

EVERY SINGLE ONE of my 5 leagues (all with different scoring rules)ADP for McNabb as of 9/4: QB5, 46th overall, which equals late fourth of all 12 team drafts - even later in 10 team drafts.So, in most drafts, according to ADP, McNabb was available in the fourth or later.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

EVERY SINGLE ONE of my 5 leagues (all with different scoring rules)ADP for McNabb as of 9/4: QB5, 46th overall, which equals late fourth of all 12 team drafts - even later in 10 team drafts.So, in most drafts, according to ADP, McNabb was available in the fourth or later.

Strange, I participated in two drafts and watched one and he went in the 3rd in all three. Not anywhere near philly either (although one owner who grabbed him in the 3rd was a philly homer).Guess my sample was not large enough.

 

[SSOG]

This goes right along with the expression:You won't win your league in the first 2 rounds, but you can lose it. You win the league in the 4th/5th and later rounds.

I disagree. If 50% of first-round picks bust, then even if your first rounder busts you haven't "lost the league"- you're really not even all that behind the 8-ball, because half of the league is in the same boat with you.I saw someone draft Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk, and Travis Henry with his first three picks in 2004. Ricky retired, Henry blew out his knee (iirc), and Faulk just blew. The guy still won the league. Moral of the story: you most certainly CAN NOT lose your league in the first round. Heck, you could do more to WIN your league in the first round (such as drafting Alexander) than you could do to lose it.

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

Ummm... pretty much all of them?

Guess my sample was not large enough.

Assuming you're a subscriber, Football Guys keeps an ADP from a week before kickoff on the "Forecast" page.

 

[Bri]

quit writing Bust next to my player's names

TIA

 

[SSOG]

quit writing Bust next to my player's namesTIA

Start drafting better players.YWIA.

 

[Bri]

quit writing Bust next to my player's namesTIA

Start drafting better players.YWIA.

There were no Broncos to draft in the first round so I didn't know what to do

 

[red]

This goes right along with the expression:You won't win your league in the first 2 rounds, but you can lose it. You win the league in the 4th/5th and later rounds.

I disagree. If 50% of first-round picks bust, then even if your first rounder busts you haven't "lost the league"- you're really not even all that behind the 8-ball, because half of the league is in the same boat with you.I saw someone draft Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk, and Travis Henry with his first three picks in 2004. Ricky retired, Henry blew out his knee (iirc), and Faulk just blew. The guy still won the league. Moral of the story: you most certainly CAN NOT lose your league in the first round. Heck, you could do more to WIN your league in the first round (such as drafting Alexander) than you could do to lose it.

but half your league will be driving toward the playoffs...the point is, we put a ton of stock in the first coupla rounds when the league winner usually requires luck (i.e. not your first or second rounder busts), good mid round drafting (VBD) and saavy WW pickups or trades. another point: since you can win without your first rounder, trade next year's first rounder for an upgrade as you're making your playoff push.

 

[Michael Brown]

Does this hold true if you look at rounds 3/4, 5/6?

At some point, no. I mean, there's no such thing as a 19th round bust. I've never sat around and said "Man, I'm really sore that Ernest Wilford never came on, that bum cost me a 17th rounder!"At some point, you become low enough in the draft that a player is more likely to outperform his draft position than underperform it. That doesn't mean that these picks are more valuable than first rounders- an underperforming 1st-rounder can actually hold more value than the entire 15th round, sometimes- it just means that it's harder to call them "busts" when you spent so little on them in the first place.As for rounds 3-4... yeah, they're just as riddled with busts. My motto while drafting is always that 50% of all draft picks bust. Round 5-6 is when you start getting more gems and fewer busts. Here's last season's ADP to demonstrate-Round 11. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/102. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/83. RB Priest Holmes, KC/54. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/85. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/86. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/97. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/108. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/39. RB Clinton Portis, Was/310. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/311. RB Corey Dillon, NE/712. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3Round 213. WR Randy Moss, Oak/514. QB Daunte Culpepper, Min/515. RB Julius Jones, Dal/916. RB Ahman Green, GB/617. RB Tiki Barber, NYG/518. RB Rudi Johnson, Cin/1019. WR Torry Holt, StL/920. RB Curtis Martin, NYJ/821. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/622. WR Terrell Owens, Phi/623. WR Marvin Harrison, Ind/824. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9Round 325. WR Chad Johnson, Cin/1026. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/527. QB Donovan McNabb, Phi/628. WR Javon Walker, GB/629. WR Joe Horn, NO/1030. WR Andre Johnson, Hou/331. TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/532. WR Reggie Wayne, Ind/833. WR Hines Ward, Pit/434. RB Carnell Williams, TB/735. TE Antonio Gates, SD/1036. WR Darrell Jackson, Sea/8Round 437. WR Nate Burleson, Min/538. RB J.J. Arrington, Ari/639. QB Marc Bulger, StL/940. WR Roy Williams, Det/341. WR Steve Smith, Car/742. RB Fred Taylor, Jac/743. WR Michael Clayton, TB/744. RB Warrick Dunn, Atl/845. QB Trent Green, KC/546. RB Tatum Bell, Den/947. RB Chris Brown, Ten/1048. RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/4Round 549. RB DeShaun Foster, Car/750. WR Anquan Boldin, Ari/651. WR Drew Bennett, Ten/1052. RB Michael Bennett, Min/553. TE Jason Witten, Dal/954. QB Kerry Collins, Oak/555. QB Michael Vick, Atl/856. WR Laveranues Coles, NYJ/857. QB Brett Favre, GB/658. WR Jerry Porter, Oak/559. WR Donald Driver, GB/660. RB Kevan Barlow, SF/6Round 661. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/662. QB Tom Brady, NE/763. RB Cedric Benson, Chi/464. TE Jeremy Shockey, NYG/565. TE Alge Crumpler, Atl/866. WR Isaac Bruce, StL/967. QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea/868. RB Larry Johnson, KC/569. TE Todd Heap, Bal/370. WR Chris Chambers, Mia/471. RB Thomas Jones, Chi/472. WR Derrick Mason, Bal/3

This goes right along with the expression:You won't win your league in the first 2 rounds, but you can lose it. You win the league in the 4th/5th and later rounds.

Too true. In one of my drafts this summer (total points league), I'm in 5th place overall and closer to last than to first. But based on my first three picks, my team SHOULD be sunk. Here are my picks by round:1-???2-???3-???4-Roy Williams5-Gore6-Hoosh7-Tatum Bell8-Carson Palmer (keeper from '05)9-Delhomme??? = Caddy, Randy Moss, Reggie Bush :X

 

[Assani Fisher]

Would this then show that it might be a good idea to trade away your top 2 picks to try to accumulate mass mid round picks?

 

[j3r3m3y]

Would this then show that it might be a good idea to trade away your top 2 picks to try to accumulate mass mid round picks?

No. Even if you don't think it is impossible to lose in the first two rounds (which I disagree with), if your first two picks are solid you have a huge head start.

 

[delusional]

Too true. In one of my drafts this summer (total points league), I'm in 5th place overall and closer to last than to first. But based on my first three picks, my team SHOULD be sunk. Here are my picks by round:1-???2-???3-???4-Roy Williams5-Gore6-Hoosh7-Tatum Bell8-Carson Palmer (keeper from '05)9-Delhomme??? = Caddy, Randy Moss, Reggie Bush :X

Almost the same draft. 1. SA2. Fitz3. Gates ( TEs 2pts 15yds recieving )4. Walker5. Fred Taylor6. Ahamn Green7. Coles8. Tatum9. Gore My 1st and 2nd have done nothing for me. 3rd didn't come around until the past 2 weeks. Walker been up and down but constitent the past 2 weeks ( i think ). Fred has been a servicable #2 & i traded ahman for mcnair ( whom i later dropped to the WW, bad trade on my part ). Then its Coles Tatum and Gore. While I only started Coles ( 1pt and 3pts those two weeks ) he has been winning people some games I believe. Same with Tatum now and Gore. But overall the first round in my league, horrible. No one outside of Manning is producing ( who i traded leftwich and SA for ) List of my leagues first roundm granted it was back on august 11th1. SA - me2. LJ3. LT4. Edge - new guy kinda5. Tiki6. Portis7. Jordan8. SJax9. Ronnie Brown10. Peyton11. Caddy12. Rudi Now who has been performing to a justified 1st round selection? LT? but he had 3 great weeks and 3 horrible weeks...which have been recent. Peyton? Outside of sundays game he been average. More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

 

[SSOG]

More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

No, it's not. Like I've been saying, every year is like that.Consider last year-1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10 (Stud)2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8 (Stud)3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5 (Bust, injured by midseason)4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8 (Stud)5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8 (mediocre, not worth the pick)6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 (Bust)7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10 (Bust)8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3 (good when healthy, but injured. Bust)9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 (mediocre, not worth the pick)10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3 (Bust)11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7 (mediocre, not worth the pick)12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3 (Bust)

 

[Q-Bert]

More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

No, it's not. Like I've been saying, every year is like that.Consider last year-

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10 (Stud)

2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8 (Stud)

3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5 (Bust, injured by midseason)

4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8 (Stud)

5. QB Peyton Manning, Ind/8 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9 (Bust)

7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10 (Bust)

8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3 (good when healthy, but injured. Bust)

9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3 (Bust)

11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3 (Bust)

Really? If you drafted Clinton Portis 9th overall last year and he finished as the 7th player overall you would consider that not worth the pick? Who would have been a better pick? I guess maybe Tiki would have been a better pick in retrospect but that is splitting hairs.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

No, it's not. Like I've been saying, every year is like that.Consider last year-9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

How can you call Portis mediocre and not worth the pick when he had 1516 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 216 rec yards and 9 100+ yard games?

 

[The Swarm]

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

 

[j3r3m3y]

More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

No, it's not. Like I've been saying, every year is like that.Consider last year-9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

How can you call Portis mediocre and not worth the pick when he had 1516 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 216 rec yards and 9 100+ yard games?

He is ranked 5 in my league. That is worth the pick.

 

[Buckna]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

In 165 12 team drafts this summer at Antsports, his ADP was 5.12.

How about in drafts within 3 weeks of the start of the season?Summer drafts are useless.

On antsports, in 36 12 team drafts from Aug 14th to Sept 7th his ADP was 5.10.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Not sure if that is what he is saying? The two players I think of that have been huge profit guys for last year and this year are picking Larry Johnson around the 6th round (last year) and McNabb this year around the 4th round

In how many leagues was McNabb around in the 4th?

In 165 12 team drafts this summer at Antsports, his ADP was 5.12.

How about in drafts within 3 weeks of the start of the season? Summer drafts are useless.

On antsports, in 36 12 team drafts from Aug 14th to Sept 7th his ADP was 5.10.

Yeah, my perception of his ADP has been debunked several times this thread.Reading is FUN-demental.

 

[SSOG]

More busts then studs this year for the top round players. Odd year.

No, it's not. Like I've been saying, every year is like that.Consider last year-9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3 (mediocre, not worth the pick)

How can you call Portis mediocre and not worth the pick when he had 1516 rushing yards, 11 rush TDs, 216 rec yards and 9 100+ yard games?

Because I screwed up and was thinking of his first season in Washington (1315/5) instead of his second (1516/11), although I was remembering his first season as worse than it actually was, too, because of the horrible ypc. Portis would have been worth that pick in either of the last two seasons.