1st and goal from just inside the ten (1 Viewer)

[da_budman]

I was watching one of the games this week when the qb ran for a first down and ended up getting it, just inches across the 10 yard line and it occurred to me that must be an incredibly difficult spot to score a td from.

Im not sure if there are stats out there for this but im betting the vast majority of time it ends in a fg(though this time the team did indeed score a td)

Unless your team is absolutely ripping it up on the ground you almost have to pass on first down there and I was thinking. Especially if the run (or pass) to the 10 yard line was PURPOSELY stopped short. then on second down you have the option to throw or run for the first down. Assuming you make a few yards first and goal from the 6 or 7 would seem to be much easier to play call for instead of first and goal from nearly the 10.

I know there are certainly things that can go wrong and dont look a gift horse in the mouth yadda yadda, but it occurred to me not making that first down on purpose makes some sense to me.

Ok this is the part of the program where you all tell me what an idiot I am for even thinking of it. P.S. STATS on this helpfull to my twisted logic case would be much appreciated.

 

[Native]

Strangely, I kind of know what youre saying...

 

[bostonfred]

If it's hard to get 9 yards when you're at the 9 yard line, why wouldn't it be hard to get 10 from the 11 yard line? It's not like defenses are standing with their heels on the goal line saying, OK, we'll give up the first, but no way you're getting this last yard.

 

[kutta]

If it's hard to get 9 yards when you're at the 9 yard line, why wouldn't it be hard to get 10 from the 11 yard line? It's not like defenses are standing with their heels on the goal line saying, OK, we'll give up the first, but no way you're getting this last yard.

The point is that on 2nd down it is 2nd and 1 from the 11. If you get 3, 4, or 5 yards on 2nd down, you now have 1st and goal from the 6-7 yard line. Basically, it boils down to potentially having 7 downs from the 11, or 4 downs from the 9 to get it into the endzone.I am NOT advocating ever doing this. I think you always need to get as many yards as you can. But I have often thought about this myself.

 

[Philo]

If it's hard to get 9 yards when you're at the 9 yard line, why wouldn't it be hard to get 10 from the 11 yard line? It's not like defenses are standing with their heels on the goal line saying, OK, we'll give up the first, but no way you're getting this last yard.

I think what he's saying is, if it's 1st and 10 from the 21, and you call a play and it goes for 9 yards and counting, it might be better to go out at the 12 than the 10. Going out at the 12 gives you 2 more plays to get even closer... you could call a 6 yard pass or get a 5 yard run... then face first and goal from the 6 or 7, instead of going out at the 10 and facing first and goal from the 10.I think he's thinking you're more likely to score from 2nd and 1 from the 12 than 1st and 10 from the 10? At least you might get 5 downs to try for the goal instead of 3.

 

[stevegamer]

It makes sense. Getting 4 plays from the 10 to score a TD should be better than having 3 plays from the 9.5 to score a TD, assuming a FG on 4th down.

 

[tomarken]

It would actually be more advantageous to stop at your own 10 yard line. Then you have potentially 36 downs to get the TD.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

What I will never understand is the following scenario:

First and goal from the 9: Incomplete pass

Second and goal from the 9: Run for 3 or 4 yards

3rd and goal: Pass again and hope for the best

Here is what I am getting at... What possible good did second down do for you... Unless you think your guy is going to take it in from the nine yard line I just dont see why you run the ball in that scenario... Are you really better off being 3rd and goal from the 6 then you are from the 9... Most qb's would tell you they would rather have the extra room to maneuver... So many teams waste second down in this scenario, and I will never understandwhy...

 

[Dought Man]

What I will never understand is the following scenario:First and goal from the 9: Incomplete passSecond and goal from the 9: Run for 3 or 4 yards3rd and goal: Pass again and hope for the bestHere is what I am getting at... What possible good did second down do for you... Unless you think your guy is going to take it in from the nine yard line I just dont see why you run the ball in that scenario... Are you really better off being 3rd and goal from the 6 then you are from the 9... Most qb's would tell you they would rather have the extra room to maneuver... So many teams waste second down in this scenario, and I will never understandwhy...

You have to keep defenses honest and guessing. If everyone knows you are dropping back to pass inside the 10, defenses will tee off on your QB. The threat of the run is sometimes just as important than the run itself. When NFL defenses know what you are going to do, you are in trouble. Unless you are Drew Brees against the Lions.

 

[da_budman]

What I will never understand is the following scenario:First and goal from the 9: Incomplete passSecond and goal from the 9: Run for 3 or 4 yards3rd and goal: Pass again and hope for the bestHere is what I am getting at... What possible good did second down do for you... Unless you think your guy is going to take it in from the nine yard line I just dont see why you run the ball in that scenario... Are you really better off being 3rd and goal from the 6 then you are from the 9... Most qb's would tell you they would rather have the extra room to maneuver... So many teams waste second down in this scenario, and I will never understandwhy...

You have to keep defenses honest and guessing. If everyone knows you are dropping back to pass inside the 10, defenses will tee off on your QB. The threat of the run is sometimes just as important than the run itself. When NFL defenses know what you are going to do, you are in trouble. Unless you are Drew Brees against the Lions.

which would be one of the advantages of having a first and goal from 5-7 yards out instead of nearly a full 10 yards out. Seems like unless you have a pretty potent running game, getting 10 yards in 3 plays isnt too easy from the 10 so teams often pass on first down there... If thats incomplete then what? If its first and goal from the 6 or 7 teams have to really respect the run there as well.Im not really advocating doing it either,just seems like the vast majority of the time first and goal from the 10 ends up in a fg. I need to find a way to look up these stats because its bugging me. I woould be pretty surprised if the numbers werent signifigantly different from the 10 vs the 6 or 7 yard line.

 

[texasbirdfan]

my theory (flame away) is 4 (3 minimum if you just have to have a FG) straight passes into the end zone. Don't mess with the runs- just play the percentages. I should add you need to spread the field with at least 2 crossing routes to confuse the coverage.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

I like the idea but it's very difficult for a player to be conscious of the 11-yard-line. It's much easier (and more likely) for a player to run out of bounds at the 1-yard-line. (i.e., if Louis Murphy had run out of bounds at the 1-yard-line last night, Oakland probably would have won the game).

 

[tomarken]

I like the idea but it's very difficult for a player to be conscious of the 11-yard-line. It's much easier (and more likely) for a player to run out of bounds at the 1-yard-line. (i.e., if Louis Murphy had run out of bounds at the 1-yard-line last night, Oakland probably would have won the game).

Yes, because it's much easier to put points on the board from the 1 yard line than it is from... inside the end zone?

 

[The Jerk]

What I will never understand is the following scenario:First and goal from the 9: Incomplete passSecond and goal from the 9: Run for 3 or 4 yards3rd and goal: Pass again and hope for the bestHere is what I am getting at... What possible good did second down do for you... Unless you think your guy is going to take it in from the nine yard line I just dont see why you run the ball in that scenario... Are you really better off being 3rd and goal from the 6 then you are from the 9... Most qb's would tell you they would rather have the extra room to maneuver... So many teams waste second down in this scenario, and I will never understandwhy...

You have to keep defenses honest and guessing. If everyone knows you are dropping back to pass inside the 10, defenses will tee off on your QB. The threat of the run is sometimes just as important than the run itself. When NFL defenses know what you are going to do, you are in trouble. Unless you are Drew Brees against the Lions.

which would be one of the advantages of having a first and goal from 5-7 yards out instead of nearly a full 10 yards out. Seems like unless you have a pretty potent running game, getting 10 yards in 3 plays isnt too easy from the 10 so teams often pass on first down there... If thats incomplete then what? If its first and goal from the 6 or 7 teams have to really respect the run there as well.Im not really advocating doing it either,just seems like the vast majority of the time first and goal from the 10 ends up in a fg. I need to find a way to look up these stats because its bugging me. I woould be pretty surprised if the numbers werent signifigantly different from the 10 vs the 6 or 7 yard line.

I would think the length of first-and-goal situations should be in some database. I know that I feel like if I have the QB or PK, I want a first and goal from the 9. If I have the RB, I want a first-and-goal from inside the 5 and hopefully closer. If not, this is a future Chase Stuart/Doug Drinen/pro-football-reference type of feature analysis waiting to happen.

 

[zed2283]

We used to do this in flag football in college. There were lines on the field every 20 yards and each time you crossed one it was a first down. So guys would stop a foot or two in front of the line knowing that they could easily get the first down (instead of just getting past it and having to go another 20 yards for the first down).

You're welcome for the update.