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1st pick 2011 Fantasy drafts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Thomsen
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Ridgelake
Footballguy
Don't forget about Vick.
Also, Foster is likely to experience a coaching change this offseason. Depending on the new system, he may or may not be so productive. He's in the old Denver RB system that's produced so many great RB results. That changes, we are likely to see a material drop in his results.
Also, Foster is likely to experience a coaching change this offseason. Depending on the new system, he may or may not be so productive. He's in the old Denver RB system that's produced so many great RB results. That changes, we are likely to see a material drop in his results.
i think id go vick. hes outscoring the next best qb by 7pts per game (including the wash game that he left in the first qtr.) thats pretty absurd vbd.
otherwise id just go peterson, hes still in his prime and is the most talented back in the league and has is a lock for top 5 production with all time great season upside.
otherwise id just go peterson, hes still in his prime and is the most talented back in the league and has is a lock for top 5 production with all time great season upside.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I think a lot of the situations outside Jacksonville have big IFS
ADP - who is playing quarterback?
CJ - who is playing QB again, AND who is coaching the team?
Foster - who is coaching the team? Overall this may be the most productive offense (helped by more attempts since the defense is so bad)
Charles - how many carries will Jones get? Will Cassel be asked to pass more?
Vick doesn't even get in the discussion as far as I am concerned (unless it's a QB flex or two QB league)
ADP - who is playing quarterback?
CJ - who is playing QB again, AND who is coaching the team?
Foster - who is coaching the team? Overall this may be the most productive offense (helped by more attempts since the defense is so bad)
Charles - how many carries will Jones get? Will Cassel be asked to pass more?
Vick doesn't even get in the discussion as far as I am concerned (unless it's a QB flex or two QB league)
Cool in the pocket
Footballguy
I think almost everyone gets it, most are just gunshy about QB's in the first and/or paying for last year's stats.
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Tigerbot Hesh
Footballguy
I think Vick will get a lot of hype, kind of like Brady did coming off his monster season a couple years ago. Foster will probably be the trendy pick for those wanting to go against the conventional wisdom of AP or CJ.
If someone wanted to go MJD with the No. 1 pick, I wouldn't argue with them. It looks like he has fewer question marks around him than the other top players out there.
If someone wanted to go MJD with the No. 1 pick, I wouldn't argue with them. It looks like he has fewer question marks around him than the other top players out there.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
I don't think he's 1st overall, but McFadden belongs in the conversation. He's young, has relatively few miles on him compared to some of the other top backs and he's in an improving offense. He's shown he's capable of huge single-game numbers. He's been a top 5 back this season despite missing two games and having a couple clunkers.
i think vick is less susceptible to year to year variance and and anomaly type seasons like manning 04 and brady 07 bc of his running ability. health is ofc an issue but he has stayed remarkably healthy throughout his career and it looks like he is making a greater effort to avoid big hits. also, this offense was created for kevin kolb. reid has shown he is great at utilizing his players talents and gameplanning. give reid an offseason to devise a scheme that takes fuller advantage of vicks skills and that is enticing.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I know in my local league (filled with nice, but not the most intelligent FF players), Peterson will still be in the mix because of his name recognition, Vick will be in the top 5 for sure because a few just love the #1 QB from the last year (none of those guys have ever even been to the championship game ironically), Foster because he is lapping in the field in 2010 in points (outside of Vick), and CJ because everyone will still remember the 2k season in 2009.
Shutout
Footballguy
Did you read my post yesterday
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...hl=trade+targetI agree with the above who say ADP. It may not be the correct answer when all is said and done but its likely the safest and you just can't miss on the #1 overall. The ONLY thing I can see making ADP a questionable selection is if the Viking just don't have ANY reasonable answer at QB going into the season.
Vick is intriguing depending on your league's scoring system but I just don't see it. Even after Manning and Brady's and Brees' monster years, they couldn't break that #1 pick and they are consistent models of sustained excellence.
Trizzler
Footballguy
Well, in all fairness, not all footballguys members ALLOW Vick to be drafted in their leagues.
with gus frerrote/tjax and brad childress peterson finished as 3rd ranked rb twice. with godmode favre he was 2. this year with a complete debacle in minny, he is currently at rb3.dude seems pretty impervious to his surrounding.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Years ago, when scoring systems were simple (i.e. TD only or only points for milestones) because they required manual calculations, QBs would go #1. Last one I saw was the year after Warner broke out. I believe I remember him going #1, but that was before VBD really caught on and he proved the following year, it was not such a heady pick. With that said, I am in a league that gives gross amounts of points to QBs and Team Ds...I haven't done a study on it yet, but typically, if you win the head-to-head battle on QB/D, you win your game. In year's past, I have tried to bring this up, but it falls upon deaf ears...I literally may go QB/QB in the first two rounds next year to prove my point.
I am in the championships against the guy with the lowest total cumulative points on the year, but he has Vick, and puts up 30+ points on a weekly basis, where usually, if you score 120 total, you have the week's highest score.
Yeah, but he's definitely lost a step and can't afford a bad surrounding cast. A lot of his TD's this year were short ones within 5 yards or so. If the team sucks and can't get him that close, it could be a long season for ADP owners.
Next year will likely be the first where there isnt an obvious #1 pick. Right now this would be my top 5:
1. CJ
2. MJD
3. AD
4. Charles
5. Mcfadden
No way i would take a QB in the first half of the first, and if i did it would be Rodgers. Im sure Foster will be a top 5 pick, but without Kubiak, and Tate coming back, it wont be by me.
1. CJ
2. MJD
3. AD
4. Charles
5. Mcfadden
No way i would take a QB in the first half of the first, and if i did it would be Rodgers. Im sure Foster will be a top 5 pick, but without Kubiak, and Tate coming back, it wont be by me.
i am skeptical that peterson has "definitely lost a step." some redic highlight reel plays stick in my mind this season but i will admit to not closely breaking him down.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
The potential is limitless. The floor is high. The guy is committed to his craft now, and it has paid dividends. And he has some of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL at his disposal.You really think he is as quick as he was when he first came in the league? Besides, he's had A LOT of carries over the past few years.2007 - 2382008 - 3632009 - 3142010 - 247
I love me some Vick but you have to account for him missing at least a couple of games....you have to with the way he plays (sliding head first).
buck naked
Footballguy
Captain: In Vick's 10 starts not including his injury game, he is averaging 32 points a game. 32! That may be unprecedented.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Personally, I think it depends on how things go in Tenn. If they get a new coach, dedicated to the run and can find a proper QB, CJ warrants #1 overall consideration. A lot of "ifs", but still deserves to be in the conversation.
On a side note, I owned MJD for the first time this year, and while the cumulative stats show he could be deserving of #1 overall, it is a heck of a roller coaster ride with the guy. I am pretty conservative and prefer my top two picks to be more consistent (and take my shots at greatness from there on out).
On a side note, I owned MJD for the first time this year, and while the cumulative stats show he could be deserving of #1 overall, it is a heck of a roller coaster ride with the guy. I am pretty conservative and prefer my top two picks to be more consistent (and take my shots at greatness from there on out).
he still looks like the best back in the league and one of the best of all time in terms of pure running ability, to me. i wouldnt argue against predicting a decline at this point due to his workload as you have pointed out. id bet against it for next yr, but it obv has to happen sometime.
Well, the thread topic is who "will" it be not who "should" it be. And barring something weird (like Philly letting Vick walk to an awful team), I bet Vick will be taken #1 overall in more leagues than any other player.
Personally, I have to see how coaching situations and 2011 preseason play out before being certain. ADP, CJ, Foster, and MJD are all guys that will have my attention. And being an Eagles homer, I'm afraid I'll be thinking about Vick too
Personally, I have to see how coaching situations and 2011 preseason play out before being certain. ADP, CJ, Foster, and MJD are all guys that will have my attention. And being an Eagles homer, I'm afraid I'll be thinking about Vick too
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Trizzler
Footballguy
You would take the guy with the weakest offensive line? Seems like a poor choice. Anyone who drafted Rodgers this year paid dearly for his lost time.
That's right. The old standby of not picking a QB early is kind of thrown out the window here because Vick is not just a QB but he's a RB as well.I took a look at this last night. If you remove Vick's fantasy points he got through the ground and just examine his full games he's right around top 5 for QB's( and that's letting the other QB's use their rushing points versus just counting Vick's passing yards). He's than right around the 25-30 ranked RB in PPR leagues in terms of per game performance only counting games he played the entire game(so I threw out the GB and Wash games). Injuries are a concern but I think it's silly when people say you an count on him missing a few games. He had one injury this year and several times in his career he played 16 games. Injures are a concern for everyone but a major bonus if they keep Kolb is for a last round pick you can handcuff your #1 pick. Kolb won't equal Vick's production for fantasy but I think has a chance to be a top 5 QB on his own so if Vick goes down you are somewhat protected.Right now I'd have to consider Vick, Foster, CJ, and ADP at #1 next year. I'd consider Mcfadden as well but only if Bush is gone(he's a UFA) and I feel reasonably comfortable they wont' keep letting people vulture all of his short yardage TD chances.The potential is limitless. The floor is high. The guy is committed to his craft now, and it has paid dividends. And he has some of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL at his disposal.
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theglorydays
Footballguy
He's got a shot at 400 fantasy points if he stays healthy next year. And it seems like a bad game by Vick is 20 points.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
-CJ is small and has taken a pounding for a few years now.-A Peterson has definitely taken a pounding and it will take its toll soon.Vick has a backup, Kevin Kolb, that will cost very little come draft day.I love me some Vick but you have to account for him missing at least a couple of games....you have to with the way he plays (sliding head first).
NeverEnough
Footballguy
ADP or Vick
Texasmouth
Footballguy
Standard scoring PPR
1.01 ADP- doesnt matter who is the QB. Doesnt matter who is the coach. The guy is consistent and my #1 overall.
1.02 CJ- not as consistent but a threat to give you 35 every week.
1.03 MJD- Run first team. Coach loves him and probably will be back next year. Great numbers week in and out.
1.04 Foster- This could change with talk of the chin coming to town. The hype machine will push this guy into the #1 spot but he is basically a one year wonder and there will be a #1 draft pick on the payroll from last year.
1.05 Jamal Charles- I honestly would consider this guy at any one of the top five spots. I love Haley and I love what they are doing in KC. They will only be better and they will continue to lean on Charles.
After that...I think it will be a crap shoot. Probably a couple of WR going in the first and probably Vick. I haven't drafted a QB in the first round since I started playing FF in 1996 but that the next year I drafted Kordell Stewart at 1.12. Vick is an interesting pick and would really shake up some drafts.
1.01 ADP- doesnt matter who is the QB. Doesnt matter who is the coach. The guy is consistent and my #1 overall.
1.02 CJ- not as consistent but a threat to give you 35 every week.
1.03 MJD- Run first team. Coach loves him and probably will be back next year. Great numbers week in and out.
1.04 Foster- This could change with talk of the chin coming to town. The hype machine will push this guy into the #1 spot but he is basically a one year wonder and there will be a #1 draft pick on the payroll from last year.
1.05 Jamal Charles- I honestly would consider this guy at any one of the top five spots. I love Haley and I love what they are doing in KC. They will only be better and they will continue to lean on Charles.
After that...I think it will be a crap shoot. Probably a couple of WR going in the first and probably Vick. I haven't drafted a QB in the first round since I started playing FF in 1996 but that the next year I drafted Kordell Stewart at 1.12. Vick is an interesting pick and would really shake up some drafts.
Texasmouth
Footballguy
One thing that really stood out to me is how valuable the #6 pick will be in a 12 team redraft. Imagine being stuck with Ray Rice at 1.06 with a pick coming back to you on the turn. I would take that all day.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Depends on your scoring format. In my TD heavy league, he's currently ranked 18th overall among RB's. I don't want him on my team.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
AP or CJ 4 me
then a crapshoot
then a crapshoot
I am in several leagues where QB passing is weighted heavily, with Vick being about the same PPG above the median and worst QB starters as is Foster above same for RBs.
So in a redraft I could see taking Vick anywhere in the 1st, literally. If I were to hazard to pick 1st now, it would be MJD or Vick I think.
So in a redraft I could see taking Vick anywhere in the 1st, literally. If I were to hazard to pick 1st now, it would be MJD or Vick I think.
dansav
Footballguy
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Exactly. The one thing I've gotten from this thread more than anything is that I DON'T want to be picking 1st next year. 6-8 will be the sweet spot. Heck, nobody has even mentioned any WR's yet. Roddy and Andre will still be on the board down there as well.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Illegal Pants Downfield
Footballguy
I seem to recall back in the early-mid '90s, both Steve Young & Brett Favre were both #1 overall candidates...that was a long time ago, though...
I drafted Rodgers this year(actually kept him at the price of a 2nd round pick) he got to me to the playoffs, and Eli Manning got me to the championship. Either way, if i were to take injury proneness into account, Vick would be the QB that scared me the most.
gianmarco
Footballguy
339372
313
339
339
348
315
Those were LT's # of carries starting with his rookie year of 339. In his 6th year after "A LOT" of carries, he rushed for 28 TDs and over 1800 yds.
AP is currently averaging 4.7 ypc and has hit double digit TDs yet again (all 4 years of his career).
Some RBs are built to carry heavy loads and AP is one of those elite guys. No, he doesn't look slower. He looks more patient and experienced. Safest bet to repeat bar none and that's irregardless of his QB or coach. If he could succeed with Chili as his HC and 2 yrs before Favre and this years mess of Favre, he can succeed with anyone and anywhere.
Chief
Footballguy
As one mentioned earlier, Vick is like drafting a RB at the same time. I cannot tell you how bad by 2nd RB slot has been all year long and how having Vick has more than made up for it. I would seriously consider Vick at number one, but there are so many variables at play regarding
ADP (needs O-Line help - not just a QB, who is the coach?)
CJ (same)
Foster (Coach?)
MJD (I know someone who knows Del Rio who says he is done there also)
Charles ????? I just cannot buy into it.
McFadden???? I'm a Raiders fan, but still...If Jackman remains with the team then maybe first round, but number one??
ADP (needs O-Line help - not just a QB, who is the coach?)
CJ (same)
Foster (Coach?)
MJD (I know someone who knows Del Rio who says he is done there also)
Charles ????? I just cannot buy into it.
McFadden???? I'm a Raiders fan, but still...If Jackman remains with the team then maybe first round, but number one??
