1st pick 2011 Fantasy drafts (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

And how many of those are in the top 10 (or even top 20 for that matter)?In my second league using average points per week:QB: Vick (1), Strafford (7), Fitzpatrick (9), Garrard (17), Kitna (18), Freeman (19), Hill (20)RB: Hillis (4), Torrain (16), Tolbert (20)

and a top 12 QB essentially equals a top 24 RB....so there are 3 top 12 QBs and 3 top 24 RB's....pretty much the same.

 

[Utter Chaos]

And how many of those are in the top 10 (or even top 20 for that matter)?In my second league using average points per week:QB: Vick (1), Strafford (7), Fitzpatrick (9), Garrard (17), Kitna (18), Freeman (19), Hill (20)RB: Hillis (4), Torrain (16), Tolbert (20)

and a top 12 QB essentially equals a top 24 RB....so there are 3 top 12 QBs and 3 top 24 RB's....pretty much the same.

True, true an I agree with that. However, my argument (flawed as it may be) was that more Free Agent QB's finish in the top 10 than Free Agent RB's.Anyway, back to the main topic. If somebody wants to take Vick at 1.01 (and I'm sure a lot of people will) that's fine. Personally, I would take Peterson or Johnson depending on how their QB and coaching situations are resolved.

 

[jackdubl]

No one would ever take Gates #1 overall, but he was probably THE most valuable fantasy PLAYER early in the season. As the season has gone on and Gates got injured, Vick has become the CLEAR most valuable PLAYER in fantasy. I think you could map out a pretty successful draft strategy involving taking Vick #1 overall.

 

[footballnerd]

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

thats a good point, but how do you factor in how many starters you have at certain positions. Say you start 3 RBs and only 1 QB, wouldn't that add more importance to the RB position?

 

[jackdubl]

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

thats a good point, but how do you factor in how many starters you have at certain positions. Say you start 3 RBs and only 1 QB, wouldn't that add more importance to the RB position?

That is definitely a difference maker. In my league we play 1 RB and one WR/RB flex, and those are the only RB slots. Obviously Vick is much more valuable and much more likely to go earlier since we play 2 RBs. In a three RB league, really difficult not to take a RB with your #1 pick.

 

[Lobary]

Arian Foster is getting a lot of short shrift here. Anyone who doesn't at least consider him for the consensus #1 pick has not looked at his numbers this season and put them in their proper historical context.

Consider: 14 games played, and Arian Foster has 1845 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. Only six players have accomplished that feat all-time, and the names include Brown, Payton, Faulk, Simpson, Sims, and Holmes. I understand the skepticism to a point, but Arian Foster didn't get on this list simply because of circumstance. He's on this list because he is very, very, very good.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I refuse to draft someone #1 overall (Foster) that was a waiver wire pickup at the start of the year. It just doesn't sound right to me.

are u nuts? Or do you draft two years in advance. 2 years gao he was a late flyer, last year he went in the 3rd round of many redrafts, and 1-3rd of keeper leagues.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I think a lot of the situations outside Jacksonville have big IFSADP - who is playing quarterback?CJ - who is playing QB again, AND who is coaching the team?Foster - who is coaching the team? Overall this may be the most productive offense (helped by more attempts since the defense is so bad)Charles - how many carries will Jones get? Will Cassel be asked to pass more?Vick doesn't even get in the discussion as far as I am concerned (unless it's a QB flex or two QB league)

Captain: In Vick's 10 starts not including his injury game, he is averaging 32 points a game. 32! That may be unprecedented.

Tom Brady - 2007 - 33.6No one that I know of took Brady at #1 overall the next year.

That's because of regression to the mean. Brady had a miracle year. No one thought he would throw 50 tds again.Vick's 'bonus/boost' is from one aspect of the game that is rewarded heavily from the qb slot (rushing yds and rushing tds- often worth 2x-1.5x their thrown counterparts) thjat Vick does better than others. Usually when you get a 'running qb' (young/gannon/Vick 1.0) you get a ?? on yardage, a better chance of a rush rd, and a ceiling of 200 yards. With vick you get 2-3x the running yards/tds of a 'traditional scrambling qb), with very low int rates and he's still passing consistently for 300 yards and some games more. His regression is less likely because it's not based on reaching ridiculous TD levels, but based on his rushing ability that isn't likely going to fall off next year.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

very

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

thats a good point, but how do you factor in how many starters you have at certain positions. Say you start 3 RBs and only 1 QB, wouldn't that add more importance to the RB position?

Or it magnifies the importance of having THE BEST QB by far, as they don't get a few players to make up the differnece. If you get vick you start with the advantage of almost playing 11 on 10.

 

[Utter Chaos]

I understand your thinking. Unfortunately, it's incorrect. If you would take Vick in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, then you should DEFINITELY take him in the 1st round in a 4 pt passing TD league. I don't think you understand why that is so I'll help out.Michael Vick already has 8 rushing TDs. That's double the next QB (Rodgers, Garrard, Tebow). The thing is, those rushing TDs are part of what makes Vick so valuable. In a 4 pt passing TD league, Vick's rushing TDs are counting as 6 pts each and help inflate his value compared to other QBs. Vick is never going to throw as many passing TDs as Manning/Brady/Rivers/Brees. Thus, if you decrease the amount that those other QBs are getting for their increased passing TDs compared to the amount Vick gets for his rushing TDs, that in turn makes Vick that much more valuable. If all TDs are 6 pts, then it's just a matter of total TDs and it evens the playing field. It matters not how much QBs score vs. other positions. It matters how QBs score compared to their peers. If you make passing TDs worth 20 pts each it doesn't make QB more important because they score more compared to RB or WR. It makes QB more important because it's only going to magnify the difference between a QB like Brady/Brees compared to Jason Campbell or even a "decent" QB like Flacco. So, what you're looking for when looking at taking a QB that high is if he's going to outdistance himself from his peers. A 4 pt passing TD league benefits Vick more than a 6 pt passing TD league because the latter negates part of his rushing advantage he holds over all other QBs. Thus, if you consider him in the 1st round in a 6 pt passing TD league, you should consider him even more in a 4 pt passing TD league.

thats a good point, but how do you factor in how many starters you have at certain positions. Say you start 3 RBs and only 1 QB, wouldn't that add more importance to the RB position?

Or it magnifies the importance of having THE BEST QB by far, as they don't get a few players to make up the differnece. If you get vick you start with the advantage of almost playing 11 on 10.

I guess that's where my thought process differs from others. I would think the opposite is true. If you start 3 RB's it's more important to find 3 or 4 quality RB's so you have options. A 12 team league would have 36 starting running backs so that on non-bye weeks there will still be at least 4 fantasy RB's that aren't the main guy on their NFL team. There would be 18 starting NFL QB's that wouldn't be starting on fantasy. In a league where you start 2 QBs it would make more sense to take Vick at 1.01.

 

[jamil]

While he's been mentioned a few times and I don't think he'll go #1, I'm liking McFadden to have a ridiculous year next year. He still doesn't seem to be too high on peoples boards due to his history but after watching him this year I'm willing to take that chance.

 

[boneman18]

Arian Foster is getting a lot of short shrift here. Anyone who doesn't at least consider him for the consensus #1 pick has not looked at his numbers this season and put them in their proper historical context.

Consider: 14 games played, and Arian Foster has 1845 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. Only six players have accomplished that feat all-time, and the names include Brown, Payton, Faulk, Simpson, Sims, and Holmes. I understand the skepticism to a point, but Arian Foster didn't get on this list simply because of circumstance. He's on this list because he is very, very, very good.

Edgerrin James had 2100-2300 total yds and 17-18 tds in 1999 & 2000 respectively. Update your list, I can think of Alexander, LJ, Terrelle Davis, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders & Tomlinson, off the top of my head. A lot of players have had similar monster seasons, some have gone on to greatness and others have fallen by the wayside ( Jamaal Anderson). Foster still needs to maintain these numbers for a long time. We'll see where Foster ranks after 16 games because that is what matters most. If he can sustain those averages over the final two games, then he will be in that 2200yd/ 18-20 td class that seperates great backs. And he might earn top-3 consideration in next years redraft.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

In league where qb tds = 6, Vick is in the conversation.

I think ADP , CJ and Vick are the legitimate contenders - followed closely by MJD and Foster - then maybe Rice. After that you are looking at QBs and WRs for a few picks.

 

[gianmarco]

In league where qb tds = 6, Vick is in the conversation.

I think ADP , CJ and Vick are the legitimate contenders - followed closely by MJD and Foster - then maybe Rice. After that you are looking at QBs and WRs for a few picks.

Then in a league where passing TDs = 4, Vick is even more in the conversationSee here

 

[Utter Chaos]

In league where qb tds = 6, Vick is in the conversation.

I think ADP , CJ and Vick are the legitimate contenders - followed closely by MJD and Foster - then maybe Rice. After that you are looking at QBs and WRs for a few picks.

Vick is actually more valuable in leagues where touchdown passes are worth 4 points. Vick is currently 16th in touchdown passes with 20. Brady and Brees lead the way with 31. In 6 point touchdown leagues they would pick up an additional 22 fantasy points on Vick.

 

[Badgers Fan]

I think Foster has alot of "what if's". But as we get closer to draft season, if it turns out tate/ward/whoever is nothing more than a change of pace, if the team is still healthy and has that great o-line and fullback together again, and if the coach, whoever it is, has no plans of making a significant change to the run game, then Foster is the first pick imo. Foster has it all, potentially. A good qb and a superstar wr to keep defenses honest. a great o-line and a good fullback. His touchdown potential will remain as high as anyone. He is also a threat for 40-60 catches. Unless the jags colts or titans make some serious upgrades, he automatically has 6 games vs bad run defenses. Unless the rest of his schedule is the bears, jets, steelers, ravens, etc, then he has a chance to have a very very favorable schedule all year. Also, since the Texans are coming off a bad year, chances are they will have an easier schedule next year. To me 1st pick is Foster, depending on your league tho.

I'd also consider Peterson, and CJ. I would want to consider Charles or McFadden, but i'd feel uneasy with them as my first pick. I also think I'd be fine settling for a Tony Romo type round 4, instead of taking vick 1st overall.

 

[eakfootball]

1 Vick

2 Peterson

3 MJD

4 CJ

5 Charles

6 Foster

7 McCoy

8 Hillis

9 McFadden

10 Mendenhall