1st Round QB Star to Bust Percentage (1 Viewer)

[Loopdog]

It seems to me that many more 1st round QB's bust than make it big. I mean obviously the jury is still out on last year's crop, whom all look pretty promising, but before them over the last 10 years there have been more than a few colossal busts. Anyone have the info available? I guess it would be subjective as to what a bust is or isn't, but I'm talking just useless players like Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Ryan Leaf, etc.

The reason I bring this up is because of the QB's being talked about in the first round this year. I have a feeling that JaMarcus Russell is gonna bust and Quinn will just be ok to good.

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.

Discuss.....

 

[LionsFan78]

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.Discuss.....

Very true. But if you're talking in terms of a "solid starter", then I think there must be more options than just 'bust' or 'star'.First off, I don't think we can completely write off anyone from the last five drafts just yet. Although, the door does seem to be closing fast on Harrington, Boller, Ramsey, and Carr. We should see here in the next few years about Aaron Rodgers, we simply cannot fairly judge him yet. Looking back to 1992, I'm counting about 9 QBs out of 35 first rounders that I would definitely label a bust: Klingler, Maddox, Mirer, Shuler, Druckenmiller, Leaf, Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown. That's about 25%. As stated earlier, the jury is still out on some recent ones for now. Most of the rest either were or continue to be solid QB's in this league, but simply cannot be labeled stars.

 

[Jous]

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.Discuss.....

Very true. But if you're talking in terms of a "solid starter", then I think there must be more options than just 'bust' or 'star'.First off, I don't think we can completely write off anyone from the last five drafts just yet. Although, the door does seem to be closing fast on Harrington, Boller, Ramsey, and Carr. We should see here in the next few years about Aaron Rodgers, we simply cannot fairly judge him yet. Looking back to 1992, I'm counting about 9 QBs out of 35 first rounders that I would definitely label a bust: Klingler, Maddox, Mirer, Shuler, Druckenmiller, Leaf, Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown. That's about 25%. As stated earlier, the jury is still out on some recent ones for now. Most of the rest either were or continue to be solid QB's in this league, but simply cannot be labeled stars.

This is just a hypthetical... let's say Maddox continued his great play from out of nowhere in 2002 (and decent play in 2003) for a few more years. Would he still be considered a bust? Just curious, because it could be argued that he would be because he still failed miserably for a bunch of years with a couple teams before he found a temporary niche with Pittsburgh.

 

[Guzalot]

This is just a hypthetical... let's say Maddox continued his great play from out of nowhere in 2002 (and decent play in 2003) for a few more years. Would he still be considered a bust? Just curious, because it could be argued that he would be because he still failed miserably for a bunch of years with a couple teams before he found a temporary niche with Pittsburgh.

I'd call any player that didn't perform well for the team that drafted him and is near worthless as trade bait a bust. Resurrecting a dead career doesn't count. If Ryan Leaf (for example) comes back for and NFL team and wins a Super Bowl next year it still won't make him any less of a bust for San Diego.

 

[Riffraff]

It seems to me that many more 1st round QB's bust than make it big. Discuss.....

2006 NFL "starters" and if they were a first round QB:Buffalo - Losman - 1st roundMiami - Culpepper - 1st roundNew England - Brady NY Jets - Pennington - 1st roundBaltimore - McNair - 1st roundCincinnati - Palmer - 1st roundCleveland - FryePittsburgh - Roethlisberger - 1st roundHouston - Carr - 1st roundIndianapolis - Manning - 1st roundJacksonville - Leftwich - 1st roundTennessee - Young - 1st roundDenver - Cutler - 1st roundKansas City - GreenOakland - BrooksSan Diego - Rivers - 1st roundDallas - Romo (also Bledsoe - 1st round)NY Giants - Manning - 1st roundPhiladelphia - McNabb - 1st roundWashington - Campbell - 1st roundChicago - Grossman - 1st roundDetroit - KitnaGreen Bay - Favre (Rodgers waiting - 1st round)Minnesota - Jackson Atlanta - Vick - 1st roundCarolina - DelhommeNew Orleans - BreesTampa Bay - SimmsArizona - Leinart - 1st roundSt. Louis - BulgerSan Francisco - Smith - 1st roundSeattle - Hasselbeck19 of 32 teams had first round QBs. Do they really bust that often?We definitely remember those that do.

 

[FavreCo]

Let's remember that Favrah was traded FOR a 1st rounder.

 

[nygiants56]

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.

Discuss.....

Very true. But if you're talking in terms of a "solid starter", then I think there must be more options than just 'bust' or 'star'.First off, I don't think we can completely write off anyone from the last five drafts just yet. Although, the door does seem to be closing fast on Harrington, Boller, Ramsey, and Carr. We should see here in the next few years about Aaron Rodgers, we simply cannot fairly judge him yet.

Looking back to 1992, I'm counting about 9 QBs out of 35 first rounders that I would definitely label a bust: Klingler, Maddox, Mirer, Shuler, Druckenmiller, Leaf, Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown. That's about 25%. As stated earlier, the jury is still out on some recent ones for now. Most of the rest either were or continue to be solid QB's in this league, but simply cannot be labeled stars.

you forgot to add:Harrington. Carr.

go back to 1991, and we get the famous Browning Nagle as another 1st round bust.

Aaron Rogers might make this list, too. what about Leftwhich, time to label him a bust too..7th pick in first round in 2003, he's done nothing special as as starter.

 

[LionsFan78]

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.

Discuss.....

Very true. But if you're talking in terms of a "solid starter", then I think there must be more options than just 'bust' or 'star'.First off, I don't think we can completely write off anyone from the last five drafts just yet. Although, the door does seem to be closing fast on Harrington, Boller, Ramsey, and Carr. We should see here in the next few years about Aaron Rodgers, we simply cannot fairly judge him yet.

Looking back to 1992, I'm counting about 9 QBs out of 35 first rounders that I would definitely label a bust: Klingler, Maddox, Mirer, Shuler, Druckenmiller, Leaf, Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown. That's about 25%. As stated earlier, the jury is still out on some recent ones for now. Most of the rest either were or continue to be solid QB's in this league, but simply cannot be labeled stars.

you forgot to add:Harrington. Carr.

go back to 1991, and we get the famous Browning Nagle as another 1st round bust.

Aaron Rogers might make this list, too. what about Leftwhich, time to label him a bust too..7th pick in first round in 2003, he's done nothing special as as starter.

I'm willing to wait until Rodgers is given his chance as a starting QB in this league. Lack of opportunity during your first few years in the league does not mean you're a bust. As far as Leftwich, I'd NEVER lump him in the same category with guys like Leaf and Couch.

 

[nygiants56]

It seems that you can pick a QB late and still have just as good a chance at a solid starter.

Discuss.....

Very true. But if you're talking in terms of a "solid starter", then I think there must be more options than just 'bust' or 'star'.First off, I don't think we can completely write off anyone from the last five drafts just yet. Although, the door does seem to be closing fast on Harrington, Boller, Ramsey, and Carr. We should see here in the next few years about Aaron Rodgers, we simply cannot fairly judge him yet.

Looking back to 1992, I'm counting about 9 QBs out of 35 first rounders that I would definitely label a bust: Klingler, Maddox, Mirer, Shuler, Druckenmiller, Leaf, Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade McNown. That's about 25%. As stated earlier, the jury is still out on some recent ones for now. Most of the rest either were or continue to be solid QB's in this league, but simply cannot be labeled stars.

you forgot to add:Harrington. Carr.

go back to 1991, and we get the famous Browning Nagle as another 1st round bust.

Aaron Rogers might make this list, too. what about Leftwhich, time to label him a bust too..7th pick in first round in 2003, he's done nothing special as as starter.

I'm willing to wait until Rodgers is given his chance as a starting QB in this league. Lack of opportunity during your first few years in the league does not mean you're a bust. As far as Leftwich, I'd NEVER lump him in the same category with guys like Leaf and Couch.

true about Lefty, not the same level as Leaf/Couch, but he's 'thisclose' to being a bust, regardless..and Rogers is hard to label a bust because he is a backup, I agree, but what he's done in preseason , against 3rd string defenders, is atrocious. we also forgot to add Patrick Ramsey to this list of first round busts..

 

[Bruno2]

I think because the QBs are such a high profile position their bust rate might seem higher than it really is, especially when you compare it to other positions. Go to NFL.com and look at the drafts the past 10 years, you'll see them scattered with busts from all different positions, not just the QB. I haven't done any number crunching but I sure did see alot of WRs that would be considered busts, along with DL and DEs. Ike Hilliard the #7 over pick by the Giants in '97 :X . Yatil Green #15 by Miami in the same year , Riedel Anthony @ #16 by Tampa Bay Rae Carruth taken by Carolina @ 27. This is just one draft, the 1997 draft. Look at 1998, Leaf wasn't the only monumental bust that year. What ever happened to Andre Wadsworth? He was picked right after Leaf by Arizona. Chicago taking Enis @ #5 was regrettable. I guess my point is, there's busts at every position, every year, some years certain positions bust out more than others, so over the long haul, it probably evens out, but if I had to guess I'd say WRs bust with more regularity than QBs.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I did a study here in which I found that there were 27 QBs drafted in the first round from 1997 through 2006. In the five seasons from 2002 through 2006, there were 26 Top 12 Fantasy QB seasons by those 27 QBs. The 27 QBs had 135 possible "seasons" to be in the Top 12 (27 QBs X 5 seasons) so that is a 19.25% chance of a First Round QB drafted from the last 10 years being in the Top 12 for Fantasy Points in the last 5 years. In an interesting contrast, Peyton Manning was in the Top 12 the most times among First rounders, all 5 years, while Mike Vick was in the Top 12 the second most times, 4 of his 5 years.

 

[redman]

The problem here is that "bust" is a relative term.

For me, if you're drafted in the bottom half of the first round, you're expected to become the starter within a year or two and hold your position over a period of time, meaning multiple seasons.

If you're drafted from roughly 1.06-1.15, you're expected to be one of the better starters in the league, and perhaps a Pro Bowler at least once in your career.

If you're drafted in the top 5, you're expected to be an elite player and a cornerstone of your franchise.

Ramsey, Harrington and Carr were drafted in the same season and have had in many respects very similar careers, with Harrington and Carr having had more starts. Those guys, however, were drafted at 1.32, 1.03 and 1.01, respectively. You can't judge them all on the same scale. They may well be busts, but Carr or Harrington would be far more so than Ramsey.