Zyphros
Footballguy
As a project of mine I did a study on 1st round picks in my league and gave them benchmarks to either 1. Complete 2. Get 1/2 the requirements 3. Fail.
These benchmarks are:
Year 1
RB - 500 yds and 4 TD's
WR - 600 yds and 4 TD's
TE - 500 yds and 5 TD's
QB - 2600 yds and 14 TD's
Year 2
RB - 800 yds and 6 TD's
WR - 900 yds and 5 TD's
TE - 300 yds and 3 TD's
QB - 3000 yds and 20 TD's
I've put in players since the 2011 rookies and here are the averages (4 years worth 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014): 5.75 average get the "complete" designation. 3.5 average get the "1/2" designation. 2 average get a fail designation to meet those requirements. That's in year 1 of their rookie seasons. So in the 1st round you have a little better than a 50% chance on a 1st round rookie. If they complete my designation I think it's safe to assume that their value has gone up and you then have that choice to sell or keep and hope for a good 2nd year.
For the 2nd year of their career the averages are (smaller sample size of only 2011, 2012, 2013): 2.667 get the "complete" designation. 2 get the "1/2" designation. 5 get the "fail" designation. So there is a large drop off on who succeeds from their 1st year to their 2nd year.
The problem is that I am not great with numbers so this is a very simplified version and maybe it will spark someone to dig deeper into it. I've used this as a tool to see potential risers or fallers. T-rich is a good example cause he met the requirements in year 1 getting a "complete" and in his 2nd year got a "1/2", suggesting a downward trend. The only other "complete" -> "1/2" is RGIII (he was 4TD's short but also missed 3 games). I usually avoid those types of players. The only guy on the "1/2" -> "completion" track is DeAndre Hopkins and is now considered a top15 dynasty WR.
These benchmarks are:
Year 1
RB - 500 yds and 4 TD's
WR - 600 yds and 4 TD's
TE - 500 yds and 5 TD's
QB - 2600 yds and 14 TD's
Year 2
RB - 800 yds and 6 TD's
WR - 900 yds and 5 TD's
TE - 300 yds and 3 TD's
QB - 3000 yds and 20 TD's
I've put in players since the 2011 rookies and here are the averages (4 years worth 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014): 5.75 average get the "complete" designation. 3.5 average get the "1/2" designation. 2 average get a fail designation to meet those requirements. That's in year 1 of their rookie seasons. So in the 1st round you have a little better than a 50% chance on a 1st round rookie. If they complete my designation I think it's safe to assume that their value has gone up and you then have that choice to sell or keep and hope for a good 2nd year.
For the 2nd year of their career the averages are (smaller sample size of only 2011, 2012, 2013): 2.667 get the "complete" designation. 2 get the "1/2" designation. 5 get the "fail" designation. So there is a large drop off on who succeeds from their 1st year to their 2nd year.
The problem is that I am not great with numbers so this is a very simplified version and maybe it will spark someone to dig deeper into it. I've used this as a tool to see potential risers or fallers. T-rich is a good example cause he met the requirements in year 1 getting a "complete" and in his 2nd year got a "1/2", suggesting a downward trend. The only other "complete" -> "1/2" is RGIII (he was 4TD's short but also missed 3 games). I usually avoid those types of players. The only guy on the "1/2" -> "completion" track is DeAndre Hopkins and is now considered a top15 dynasty WR.
