Take this for whatever you think it's worth. I've got 62 WRs who were drafted in the first round between 1999 and 2013. Here are those that qualify
using the measurables explained in the links here:
DeAndre Hopkins 2013Justin Blackmon 2012Jonathan Baldwin 2011A.J. Green 2011(1)Dez Bryant 2010Demaryius Thomas 2010Michael Crabtree 2009Hakeem Nicks 2009Kenny Britt 2009Calvin Johnson 2007Dwayne Bowe 2007Santonio Holmes 2006Roddy White 2005Larry Fitzgerald 2004Andre Johnson 2003Charles Rogers 2003Ashley Lelie 2002Reggie Wayne 2001Santana Moss 2001Plaxico Burress 2000David Boston 1999Torry Holt 1999I didn't have AJ Green on this list when he was drafted and I still don't have a good read on his WR type. So you can move him down if you like.
And here are the 1st round WRs that failed to qualify using the same guidelines, along with the reason:
Braylon Edwards 2005Troy Williamson 2005Roy Williams 2004Donte Stallworth 2002David Terrell 2001Travis Taylor 2000These players are eliminated because they're in
the Dead Zone on the chart. Note that no one with this body type, including Keenan Allen this year, has been drafted in the first round since 2005.
Jerome Pathon 1998Javon Walker 2002These two are cut out because they caught fewer than 70 balls their last two NCAA seasons. That's not necessarily a deal-killer but it does add risk due to the possiblity of injury problems, disciplinary problems or that the player was performing in a limited role and saw his performance measures inflated as a result. This would be much better broken into games played and receptions/game. But I've got 500 guys I'd have to clean that up for, and other things I want to work on.
Mike Williams 2005Excluded because Williams missed his rookie season and couldn't go back to USC after he lost his lawsuit. Again, not a deal-killer but an added risk.
Koren Robinson 2001Sylvester Morris 2000Dropped because they ran slower than 4.59 at the combine or their pro day. I actually like a cutoff of 4.52(ish) better, but for now I'm not automatically ruling out guys in the 4.53-4.59 range if they qualify otherwise.
Tavon Austin 2013Percy Harvin (RB) 2009Matt Jones (QB) 2005These three are not in the top group because they didn't play a true WR position in college and their receiving measures are either non-existant or goofy as a result of the role they played. Austin is also too small (like Harvin, I won't be surprised if he breaks the model).
Cordarrelle Patterson 2013Michael Floyd 2012A.J. Jenkins 2012Julio Jones 2011Darrius Heyward-Bey 2009Craig Davis 2007Michael Jenkins 2004Reggie Williams 2004Michael Clayton 2004Bryant Johnson 2003Freddie Mitchell 2001Rod Gardner 2001R. Jay Soward 2000Kevin Dyson 1998These players don't qualify because their receiving measures are negative (below average). Until the last few weeks that was automatically a disqualifier. Now that I'm adding explosion to the mix though it looks like there are some players (Julio Jones for sure, and maybe Michael Floyd) that succeed with pretty much any receiving measure due to their overwhelming physical abilities. So going forward he'd probably be included in the top list.
Kendall Wright 2012Jeremy Maclin 2009Robert Meachem 2007Anthony Gonzalez 2007Ted Ginn Jr. 2007Mark Clayton 2005Rashaun Woods 2004Lee Evans 2004Peter Warrick 2000Dennis Northcutt 2000Kevin Johnson 1999Troy Edwards 1999This is a catch all of WRs who are either small and not fast/explosive enough to be elite WRs, who have positive but still not sufficient receiving metrics for their body type, or are
40-yard fast but lack the explosion to go with it.
So tying all this up...fully qualified WRs:
DeAndre Hopkins 2013Justin Blackmon 2012Jonathan Baldwin 2011A.J. Green 2011(1)Dez Bryant 2010Demaryius Thomas 2010Michael Crabtree 2009Hakeem Nicks 2009Kenny Britt 2009Calvin Johnson 2007Dwayne Bowe 2007Santonio Holmes 2006Roddy White 2005Larry Fitzgerald 2004Andre Johnson 2003Charles Rogers 2003Ashley Lelie 2002Reggie Wayne 2001Santana Moss 2001Plaxico Burress 2000(2)David Boston 1999Torry Holt 1999Basically these guys pan out unless they have character problems (Boston, Rogers, Holmes, Britt, Blackmon?). I'd also say that the top two, Blackmon and Hopkins, are really marginal calls. I'm still not sure how to handle WRs like them.
The 'other' list looks like this:
Cordarrelle Patterson 2013Tavon Austin 2013Kendall Wright 2012Michael Floyd 2012A.J. Jenkins 2012Julio Jones 2011Jeremy Maclin 2009Darrius Heyward-Bey 2009Percy Harvin (RB) 2009Robert Meachem 2007Anthony Gonzalez 2007Ted Ginn Jr. 2007Craig Davis 2007Braylon Edwards 2005Troy Williamson 2005Mark Clayton 2005Matt Jones (QB) 2005Mike Williams 2005Roy Williams 2004Rashaun Woods 2004Lee Evans 2004Michael Jenkins 2004Reggie Williams 2004Michael Clayton 2004Bryant Johnson 2003Donte Stallworth 2002Javon Walker 2002David Terrell 2001Freddie Mitchell 2001Rod Gardner 2001Koren Robinson 2001Travis Taylor 2000Peter Warrick 2000Dennis Northcutt 2000R. Jay Soward 2000Sylvester Morris 2000Kevin Johnson 1999What's most interesting to me is that you have nine guys on the top list drafted in the last five years (2009-2013), and thirteen guys drafted in the previous nine years to that (1999-2007). A pretty steady rate around ~1.5 per year. And of the fully qualified WRs that we can say we know something about (leaving off Baldwin, Blackmon and Hopkins) 14/19 have had good or great careers. With the exceptions being almost all character driven.
On the bottom list though... there's a totally different story pre- and post-2009. In the last five years there have been nine players drafted in this group. However, in the previous nine years (1999-2007) there were
28 -- a rate of 3/year, almost double the rate since.
Additionally, the players on the bottom list from the the last five years are better bets, talented players with warts -- like Patterson (a developmental player with insane tools and only one year of D-I ball), Harvin and Austin (who are really more 'non-standard' than 'not qualifying'). I'd also (subjectively) say that even the recent misses are useful -- Maclin and Wright for example. Finally, some of the players on the bottom list don't belong there (Julio Jones, maybe Michael Floyd). There really aren't very many truly terrible picks in the last five years. The only two that really stand out are Heyward-Bey and possibly AJ Jenkins.
So the point of all this?
First, the reasons WRs fail are knowable and don't involve anything mystical. They fail either because they're not good enough at actually doing WR stuff (mostly getting open/creating space for their QB to get them the ball) or they don't have physical tools that allow them to succeed against NFL caliber defensive backs. Or because they're knuckleheads.
Second, the changes in the types of WRs teams are drafting in the first round is very telling IMO. The number of what I call non-qualifying WRs being drafted in the first round has been cut in half in the last 6-7 years, and those that remain are mostly a matter of risk tolerance. My model shuns high risk players, but it's not unreasonable to take the risk if the potential reward is there too.
I've had a good amount of those busts in and out of my WR starved dynasty team.
