1st round WR's in dynasty leagues (1 Viewer)

[Captain Spaulding]

I did a little research from 2008 through 2002 NFL drafts and found that of the 5 NFL WR's chosen in the top 5 picks, only 1 was a bust (Charles Rodgers) Here are the others...

2008 none 2007 - CJ#2

2006 none in top 5

2005 - Braylon Edwards #3

2004- Fitz #3

2003 - Charles Rodgers #2 (bust)

Andre Johnson #3

2002 - none in top 5

So 4 out of 5 isn't bad from a draft-risk standpoint. In fact that is as close to a slam dunk as you can get in drafting.

Now the caution applies when drafting WR's in the remainder of the 1st round of the NFL. They are all over the board in whether they meet expectations or not. Some do, some don't.

So if Crabtree gets taken as a top 5 choice in the NFL draft (or another WR goes in the top 5) and you really need to build WR corp on your dynasty team, its worth the risk to trade up (or select) to get one. Buyer beware outside between the 6th and 10th spots ...as Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Ginn Jr. Roy Williams, Reggie Williams were all top 10 NFL WR picks and probably only Roy Williams has looked somewhat studly (looking back a couple of years as opposed to recent years)....or more simply just don't pick a WR with the name Williams in the last name!!!

 

[Buckna]

Definitely a strong showing, but we're dealing with a small sample size here. There were no top 5 WR's in '02 or '01, but Peter Warrick went #4 in '00 and was a bust. You have to go back to Keyshawn in '96 for another top 5 guy (not a bust, but not exactly outstanding.)

Lots of people called Andre a bust his first 4 years in the league (even as recently as the beginning of this season.) I like Braylon's chances long term but the jury is definitely still out on him.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

That's an impressive list, and I'm certainly looking to acquire a WR taken in the top 5, unless I have something against that particular guy. However, it's worth reviewing the list of guys taken before the ones from the last few years:

2000: Peter Warrick

1996: Keyshawn Johnson

1995: Michael Westbrook

1992: Desmond Howard

1984: Irving Fryar, Kenny Jackson

1980: Lam Jones

There are a lot of busts on that list, and top rookie picks are tough to acquire. Have GM's gotten better at evaluating elite WR's in the past few years? Unfortunately, we don't have enough top 5 WR draft picks to say much about that. I always find it difficult to project how WR's will adapt to the NFL. In fact, out of that group, Calvin Johnson is the only one who seemed to me like a sure thing to translate well to the NFL. Someone must have taken a look at bust rates for top 5 WR's vs. RB's and QB's. Anyone remember one?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

4 out of 5 is an extremely limited sample size that doesn't really say anything. How does it look if we continue going back?

EDIT: I see Jerry Lawler has already covered this. Doesn't look so hot...

 

[Captain Spaulding]

This is just a recent trend and all trends are subject to change. Nothing stays static forever. Actually through the 80's and 90's the NFL was scared to draft WR's in the first round and especially not very high in the first round. This really has only been common and 1st round WR's are much more predominant in recent years. Well, if Kiper and all of the other draft goons are right though, it is looking like Crabtree will go top 5 somewhere and I would guess 2 to 3 more WR's go in the 1st round as well just based on the draft predictors. So it would appear that the new milenia trend at least continues for another season.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

I did a little research from 2008 through 2002 NFL drafts and found that of the 5 NFL WR's chosen in the top 5 picks, only 1 was a bust (Charles Rodgers) Here are the others...2008 none 2007 - CJ#22006 none in top 52005 - Braylon Edwards #32004- Fitz #32003 - Charles Rodgers #2 (bust)Andre Johnson #32002 - none in top 5So 4 out of 5 isn't bad from a draft-risk standpoint. In fact that is as close to a slam dunk as you can get in drafting.Now the caution applies when drafting WR's in the remainder of the 1st round of the NFL. They are all over the board in whether they meet expectations or not. Some do, some don't.So if Crabtree gets taken as a top 5 choice in the NFL draft (or another WR goes in the top 5) and you really need to build WR corp on your dynasty team, its worth the risk to trade up (or select) to get one. Buyer beware outside between the 6th and 10th spots ...as Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Ginn Jr. Roy Williams, Reggie Williams were all top 10 NFL WR picks and probably only Roy Williams has looked somewhat studly (looking back a couple of years as opposed to recent years)....or more simply just don't pick a WR with the name Williams in the last name!!!

Heyward Bey at #7 and Crabtree at #10....I wouldn't trade up into the top 1-4 picks or draft either if I had a top pick in a dynatsty draft this season. I'd go RB with top 3-4 picks this season. I'd take a flyer on these 2 WRs (or Maclin and other 1st round WR's) in the middle or lower 1st round of the dynasty draft, but if I stick to my analysis above its too risky to choose a WR over a RB at the top this season.

 

[TheFanatic]

4 out of 5 is an extremely limited sample size that doesn't really say anything. How does it look if we continue going back?EDIT: I see Jerry Lawler has already covered this. Doesn't look so hot...

Maybe a look at those drafted in the top 10 to expand the pool. Someone did that in the Crabtree is a bust thread and the success rate is not good....

 

[Jerry Lawler]

Just eyeballing the 27 WR's taken in the top 10 since 1990, I'm estimating about 14 had at least one season in which they were consistently startable in fantasy leagues. Since several had only one good year (e.g. Koren Robinson, David Boston), maybe 8 of them (Calvin, Edwards, Fitz, Andre, Holt, Galloway, Keyshawn, Herman Moore) ended up being worth one of the top few picks in a rookie draft. As the OP pointed out, these are usually top 5 picks in the NFL draft. The 6-10 picks include a number of infamous busts.

2007

1.2 Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech Detroit Lions

1.9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State Miami Dolphins

2006

1.3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan Cleveland Browns

1.7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings

1.10 Mike Williams WR USC Detroit Lions

2004

1.3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh Arizona Cardinals

1.7 Roy Williams WR Texas Detroit Lions

1.9 Reggie Williams WR Washington Jacksonville Jaguars

2003

1.2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State Detroit Lions

1.3 Andre Johnson WR Miami (Fla.) Houston Texans

2001

1 8 David Terrell WR Michigan Chicago Bears

1 9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks

2000

1.4 Peter Warrick WR Florida State Cincinnati Bengals

1.8 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers

1999

1.6 Torry Holt WR North Carolina State St. Louis Rams

1.8 David Boston WR Ohio State Arizona Cardinals

1997

1 7 Ike Hilliard WR Florida New York Giants

1996

1.1 Keyshawn Johnson WR USC New York Jets

1.7 Terry Glenn WR Ohio State New England Patriots

1995

1.4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado Washington Redskins

1.8 Joey Galloway WR Ohio State Seattle Seahawks

1993

1 7 Curtis Conway WR USC Chicago Bears

1992

1 4 Desmond Howard WR Michigan Washington Redskins

1991

1 10 Herman Moore WR Virginia Detroit Lions

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Just eyeballing the 27 WR's taken in the top 10 since 1990, I'm estimating about 14 had at least one season in which they were consistently startable in fantasy leagues. Since several had only one good year (e.g. Koren Robinson, David Boston), maybe 8 of them (Calvin, Edwards, Fitz, Andre, Holt, Galloway, Keyshawn, Herman Moore) ended up being worth one of the top few picks in a rookie draft. As the OP pointed out, these are usually top 5 picks in the NFL draft. The 6-10 picks include a number of infamous busts.20071.2 Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech Detroit Lions 1.9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State Miami Dolphins20061.3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan Cleveland Browns 1.7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings 1.10 Mike Williams WR USC Detroit Lions20041.3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh Arizona Cardinals 1.7 Roy Williams WR Texas Detroit Lions 1.9 Reggie Williams WR Washington Jacksonville Jaguars20031.2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State Detroit Lions 1.3 Andre Johnson WR Miami (Fla.) Houston Texans20011 8 David Terrell WR Michigan Chicago Bears 1 9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks20001.4 Peter Warrick WR Florida State Cincinnati Bengals 1.8 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers19991.6 Torry Holt WR North Carolina State St. Louis Rams 1.8 David Boston WR Ohio State Arizona Cardinals19971 7 Ike Hilliard WR Florida New York Giants19961.1 Keyshawn Johnson WR USC New York Jets 1.7 Terry Glenn WR Ohio State New England Patriots19951.4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado Washington Redskins 1.8 Joey Galloway WR Ohio State Seattle Seahawks19931 7 Curtis Conway WR USC Chicago Bears19921 4 Desmond Howard WR Michigan Washington Redskins19911 10 Herman Moore WR Virginia Detroit Lions

Thanks Jerry, you helped emphasize my point that it seems like around the top 5 is where you really can draw the line from a risk/reward standpoint. And if you use my additional logic to only look at recent trends (because trends don't last forever) it further solidifies the findings...the data isn't as solid if you go back early in this decade or into the 1990's. With no WR's chosen in the top 5 NFL draft this year, I'm just saying its quite a bit more risky to go after a WR high in your dynast rookie draft. Even if you desperately need a WR on your dynasty roster, you'd be better off selecting a RB with a high draft pick or trading down.

 

[FantasyTrader]

it further solidifies the findings...

You're making some very conclusive statements based on an 80% success rate among a sample size of five. Slippery slope. You're certainly right though, recently they have done very well.

 

[TheFanatic]

it further solidifies the findings...

You're making some very conclusive statements based on an 80% success rate among a sample size of five. Slippery slope. You're certainly right though, recently they have done very well.

This "trend" will need a few more years to really flesh out a statistical valid correlation. Actually it may take many years. This year and last we had no WR's in the top 5 and next year is no guarantee that a WR will go top 5...

 

[Captain Spaulding]

it further solidifies the findings...

You're making some very conclusive statements based on an 80% success rate among a sample size of five. Slippery slope. You're certainly right though, recently they have done very well.

This "trend" will need a few more years to really flesh out a statistical valid correlation. Actually it may take many years. This year and last we had no WR's in the top 5 and next year is no guarantee that a WR will go top 5...

That's all fine and dandy. Point though is if you have a top 3 rookie pick and no WR's were drafted in the top 5 in a given year...then it helps your decision making...if my findings have any merit to you, you just take the best available RB on the board or trade down. But you don't take Bey, Crabtree Maclin etc. as a top 3 pick....too risky.