I'm going to take the under on WR17 from week 5-17. I will also take the under on 830 yards in that time span.If you tell me at a given range of projections, a guy will fall between WR8 and WR17, I'd call that guy a borderline WR1.
Anyway, you had him at 78 more targets. In 19 games with NE, Hogan has averaged 10.6 yards per target. 10.6 x 78 = 830 yards, plus 5 TDs = 113 points = 9.4 ppg.
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2 weeks =/= trend, but 4 weeks = trend (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter FF Ninja
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shadrap
Footballguy
I listened to my partner in 1 high dollar league & got Lynch in the 3rd or 4th rd(not looking it up as trying to forget the whole episode). He is in the 3 RB rotation. He used to get stronger as the game went on, hard to do that in his current situation. Too bad, but that's what Oakland brings to the table. He will be TD dependent just like La Murray was last year. Bad draft choice totally. IMO
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I swear I'm not just trying to argue with you in this thread...
He's averaging 4.6 targets per game. That's more than Agholor who is considered to be a pretty strong "add" in most leagues
Yeah this is where I'm at with him... as he is learning the game and picking up the speed of the game, he seems to be more involved. Bryant just seems to be a massive disappointment.
He reminds me a lot of Taylor Gabriel last year... averaged 3.8 targets per game, but was a top 15 WR for the second half of the season. His biggest contribution was that long TD he'd be good for almost weekly. JuJu seems to be the same (minus the long TD threat). You'd think Bryant would be the big redzone target, but JuJu is TIED WITH ANTONIO BROWN for redzone targets this year for the Steelers (each have 5); Bryant has 2 targets. In PPR JuJu has averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game... that's enough to be rostered IMO. The upside is there, definitely, as the season goes on. Just wish my bench was longer... I need all the space I can get!
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
It's possible. JuJu and Bryant could combine for WR2 numbers... and I think that's most possible. Of the two I think JuJu just seems to be the better producer right now. That could change of course but the redzone targets are key IMO.
I don't think things change for Bryant unless there's an injury
Ha, it's all good. 4.6 targets per game isn't enough for me to add him but then again, I don't want Agholor, either. I'm also swayed by the fact that I didn't like JuJu as a prospect so he's way off my radar in my redraft leagues. But Big Ben can't support 3 fantasy WRs, so if you're adding JuJu you're basically hoping that Bryant becomes irrelevant somehow. Personally, if I couldn't get a piece of Bell or AB, I avoided Pit altogether and I have no regrets.
The Hank
Footballguy
I'm bullish on Martivis AND Juju
My thoughts on Juju are above but as I alluded to earlier Martavis looked more in sync with Ben and if Ben threw his target on the money to Bryant on the deep throw attempt he could've been looking at a 4 rec 100 yd 1 TD performance. This offense is still trying to figure itself out, Martavis missed essentially 75% of preseason and hadn't played in 2016 at all - nowhere to go but up for Martavis.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
That's where I've been. I can see JuJu being a post-bye addition for me (adding when my TE/K/DEF/QB byes are over). If he's even still there by then. I think he's someone that could come on for later.
I would say yes, 4.6 targets a game isn't enough for me either... but that's essentially what Gabriel had in the second half of last season, but he was still a top 15 WR for the entire second half of the season (or something like that, top 20 or something). It was a pretty amazing stat; he did the best with his targets that he could. This seems similar to that. If JuJu scores 2 more TDs within the next 4 weeks I think we have to give him consideration for flex play and definitely for roster space; he'd be on pace for 8 TDs for the year. I don't know of many 8 TD WRs who aren't at least rosterable.
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shadrap
Footballguy
I agree, but have Bryant in 4 out of 6 leagues. soooooooooooooooooooo I'm invested & not fessing up I made a mistake. not yet. Whole offense looks disjointed to me.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The truth is Juju and Bryant aren't really competing for targets. Juju is more of a possession receiver, a dude who goes over the middle and makes the tough catches. Bryant is supposed to take the top off of defenses. Juju has completely supplanted Eli, that's who was hurt the most.
Explain the play-offs and preseason, please... this isn't a 4 game sample-size we're dealing with.
Boone22
Footballguy
I agree. If anything I think Ju Ju takes away from the TEs. Bryant is and always has been the big play deep threat. His issue right now is that he missed last year and most of the preseason so his timing with Ben is completely off.
zamboni
Footballguy
Crowder's underperformance is a surprising one, but you could probably say that about the entire Redskins offense.
And to think there was pre-season talk about the possibility of 100 catches for Crowder.
It's crazy. Cousins is not even targeting him.
I noticed it last yr at times last yr too
Meh. For every time a WR drops a pass, so does a defender. He's a weird mix of lucky and unlucky.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Possession receiver who gets red zone looks. Works for me with Big Ben slinging the rock.
I'm sure Bryant owners wouldn't mind some of that red zone love.
I don't need to explain. I'm just going to take the under on Hogan putting up those numbers from weeks 5-17. If he does, I'll be pleasantly surprised since I could use his help on my contest team, but I'm not expecting it.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
CAVEAT: I'm an owner/bettor here on the come.
It was a shame he couldn't hang on to that late TD pass effort. Could have really been a boost to the connection between Cousins/Doctson. With that said, I'm watching Doctson sacrifice his body, diving for catches, etc while Pryor is exhibiting severe case of alligator arms.
Reed is not healthy and likely won't be all year, Crowder has been forgotten. So I think Doctson has a real opportunity to not just become fantasy relevant, but be the driving force of resuscitating this passing game. His usage is a bit concerning as it dipped back down last night. But this offense isn't clicking yet and Doctson finally appears healthy and could be a big x-factor.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Yup. I made the same mistake. It was hard to not to like Lynch in that situation. Maybe avoiding RBs 30 or older early in drafts is the takeaway lesson.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Pretty sure the lesson is to avoid 30 year old RBs who took the previous year off and didn't look all that great the year before. Like many of us said before the season while others were expecting beast mode circa 2011-14 to return.
The more I watch football, I am less and less concerned with age from an ability standpoint (unless there are signs of deterioration). The primary thing is opportunity. It seems GMs are reluctant to hand the keys to a 30 or 31 year old RB, but somehow they seem to perform just fine when given the chance. I mean, Gore is certainly an exception at age 34 but there have been a LOT of 30-31 year old RBs with huge seasons, dating back to guys like Curtis Martin. IMO, Lynch is no different. When he's been in the game he's shedding tackles and running through defenders like he always did, but he's just not getting the snaps he used to. The biggest problem, though, is that the Oakland offense as a whole took a couple steps backwards this year.
The Seattle offensive line has been a joke for a while and Lynch was dealing with injuries. Hard to really analyze that last season fairly. FWIW, Waldman's analyzed Lynch's current play and determined that Beast Mode did in fact return for 2017. People who thought he wouldn't be a good fantasy play because he's no longer good essentially circled the right answer but showed the wrong work. Luckily FF is like a scantron test. You can be right for the wrong reasons and it still counts!
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm not sure what wrong reasons you're referencing but then I haven't read the article. I do know Lynch isn't looking like a good back this year, nor did he in 15. He's never been a top big play maker, much more of a wear them out type, so we're not disagreeing there. I'm just highly skeptical about his ability to play that role for the season. It doesn't help that so far his big plays are a 15 yard carry and 16 yard reception. Not exactly beastly, but pretty close to 2015.
It's entirely possible Del Rio is just getting him warmed up and he'll explode in the second half of the season. We'll see.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Last 4 games - Robby Anderson 17/263/3 on 28 targets.
I'm saying you thought Beast Mode was done being Beast Mode. You were wrong*. But luckily the offense hasn't been very good and he's not getting a ton of snaps so you feel like you were right.
*then again, I'm relying on Waldman's analysis to prove my point, so if you don't trust him then my case loses a lot of weight. Basically it's Waldman's eye test vs. your eye test. I'd cite my own eye test, but I know I'm not an expert so I won't.
Not sure why you keep citing 2015. I thought it was pretty obvious to everyone that he was injured in 2015 and Seattle had an atrocious OL. Nobody overcomes that. He's good, but he's not superman.
If I was a betting man, I'm not sure I'd bet on him to be top 5 ROS in PPR, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet against it, either. He looks legit.
Came here to post that. Should continue next week with a great matchup against the Bucs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Maybe Waldman is right but I'm not the only one not sold.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/24/marshawn-lynch-oakland-raiders-suspension-nfl-schedule-lines-video-backups-fantasy-derek-carr/amp/
Jutz
Footballguy
The article's concluding line directly contradicts your own stance (that Lynch was bad in 2015 and he's still bad):
Jutz
Footballguy
Yes, that is true. Maybe I should have specified PPR.
Last night really elevated his scoring average for the past 4 weeks. In my league his past 4 game scoring average is 15.5 (double digits 4 straight weeks).
This could change after the games this week, but I think he will still be in that range. It seems a lot of higher rated RB's have had a bad, low scoring game in the last 4 weeks that brings their average down.
That's why I mentioned Waldman's analysis. He said he's still the same player. I think in one of his shaky instagram videos he may have even said "beast mode is back."
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
All I know is Lynch didn’t meet my expectations. I bought in and it cost me. The lesson I take away us that it might be wise to avoid power backs 29 Years or older. Lynch, Blount, AP, JStew have all underperformed at their ADP..
Um, Blount just had a career year at age 30 last year. He's averaging 4.7 ypc at age 31 this year. Adrian Peterson rushed for almost 1500 yards at age 30.
As far as fantasy performance vs. ADP, I'd say that is impacted more by situation than ability.
Trust me, there are no new "hot takeaways" from the 2017 season. Just like every year, RBs need (1) at least mediocre blocking, (2) some semblance of a passing threat, (3) touches, and (4) at least a few red zone opportunities. If one of these things is strongly skewed positively it can offset a deficiency at another.
