It's only January 13th, so this won't be the first time I say this before training camps start, but wow, 2004 was a very weird year. Weird in the sense that there was (a) no rookie among the top scoring RBs (1/10; 6 per TD) and (b) not a whole lot of "churn" in the names of the top 12 RBs.
D. Davis finished 13th. Contrast that with Portis who finished 4th (but not starting 16 games) the year before.
Here's 2003's top 12 with 2002 finish in parentheses:
1 Holmes, Priest KCC (1)
2 Green, Ahman GBP (12)
3 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC (3)
4 Lewis, Jamal BAL (13)
5 Portis, Clinton DEN (4)
6 Alexander, Shaun SEA (6)
7 McAllister, Deuce NOS (5)
8 Taylor, Fred JAC (11)
9 Williams, Ricky MIA (2)
10 James, Edgerrin IND (24)
11 Henry, Travis BUF (8)
12 Davis, Stephen CAR (25)
Tiki Barber (from 7 to 13), Eddie George (10 to 23) and Charlie Garner (9 to infinity
) were the guys to fall out of the top tier. But Barber and George still posted respectable numbers and given most folks' feelings about George, only Barber could be considered a disappointment (and not much of one at that).
Maybe its just me, but I find it amazing that three guys finished in the exact same position in consecutive years (Holmes, Tomlinson and Alexander).
Also, outside of James and Davis, there were no exceptional leaps in performance (which, for want of any existing definition, I'll propose as a move of 12 spots or more year-to-year for a non-rookie player). However, both James and Davis have been there before and have reasonable explanations for their respective leaps (i.e., return from injury and FA situation).
That said, I think the odds favor some of these guys falling out of the top tier next year in a big way, as well as at least one rookie making it into the top group. Who will it be? Again, ignoring rookies and not trying to predict injuries, here's my complete stab in the dark
* as to who finishes in the top 12:
1. Portis - big assumption that Clinton makes it through the entire season and starts and plays in 16 games. If this happens, I see Portis benefiting from Plummer's second year in the system and Shanahan realizing just who is meal ticket is (which may be a bigger assumption than no injuries for Portis).
2. Tomlinson - Unlike in 2002, LT finished very strongly down the stretch this year (as the #1 back in the last 4 weeks of the season). The Chargers stink and yet LT thrives due in large part to Marty's commitment to running the ball. If the Chargers had changed coaches this season, there is no way I'd have LT this high.
3. Holmes - Until Priest's lifeless body is carried from the field, I won't discount him (too much). Great, great offensive line, great system, great runner. How Billick and/or Ozzie are considered competent, let alone a genius, after letting Priest go is beyond me.
4. James - Edge is back, and the way the Colt offense has been firing on all cylinders down the stretch and into the post season has been amazing. His move back into the top tier this year was no fluke.
5. Williams - Down year for Ricky but I'm betting the Dolphins work on their offensive line issues this offseason. Williams has too much talent not to finish better next year.
6. Alexander - Don't kid yourself, Alexander is Mr. Consistency.
The Seahawks proved that they are a force to be reckoned with offensively and theirs plenty of points to go around in the great Northwest. Alexander will finish 6th again next year.
7. Lewis - No way he puts up the yardage he did last year. And given the genius of Billick, Lewis might not see as many carries either. The fact that Lewis only gets a few catches per game doesn't help much either. Chester Taylor - who saw much less time than Lewis - had 20 catches to Jamal's 26. Not good.
8. Jones - Getting back to my earlier point, we didn't see any dramatic movement in the top tier this past year. I'm saying that won't happen again in 2004. Thomas Jones seemed to win the TB job outright with his performance down the stretch. Pittman, in all likelihood, will be gone from the scene. Jones has the skills and seems to be emerging from his 3 year coma, the Bucs will likely be better and I'm ignoring any impact from Alstott (so sue me).
9. Green - Ahman had a great 2003, but despite the GB offensive line being quite good, I can't see a repeat in 2004. However, Green should finish a little better than in 2002.
10. McCallister - Deuce is another RB that scares the bejeezus out of me given the way the Saints perform from one game to the next. In 2003, Deuce seemed to get his regardless of how the team was performing. I wouldn't want to count on that again in 2004.
11. Taylor - Fred seems to have shed the "fragile' label and I think Jacksonville might be the surprise team in 2004. Why do I think Fred finishes slightly worse than in 2003? Simple, I think the Jaguars become more Leftwich's team (look for a marquee WR in the draft) and that Del Rio continues to spread the carries around (e.g., Toefield).
12. Barlow - Finally took advantage of his opportunity at the end of the year (where he was the 4th best RB in weeks 14-17).
I want no part of the CAR, BUF or MIN situations. One of the RBs on those teams could pop into the top tier, or they could end up as RBBCs. I'm guessing the latter right now.
Warning. This list may suddenly accelerate to dangerous speeds. When not in use, this list should be returned to its special container and kept under refrigeration. If while reading this list, your monitor begins to smoke, get away immediately. Seek shelter and cover head. Accept no substitutes!
BTW, nice avatar. 
18.
10. DDavis- Well, i needed one suprise in my top 10, and Davis is it. As long as the Texans dont try and get Hollings in the mix too much, Davis should definetly challenge for the top 10 next year.11. James- Thoguh he showed some improvement over the last half of the season, he will never be the James of old.12. Faulk- He may need all 16 games to finish here, and since he hasnt played all 16 in 4-5 years, i doubt he will next year, but i will give him the benefit of the doubt.13. Lee Suggs- This guy did more in one game than Green did in two years, if the Browns add some Oline, this guy is going to be a monster, thats right, a monster14. SDavis- I think he has one more good year before passing the torch to Foster.15.Barlow-Give him the nod over Henry, because i think(and hope) Mcgahee is the man next year.16. Henry- see above17. RJohnson- Looked good in stints last year, with Dillon gone he could be a solid #2 FF back.18. Dillon- Pending what team he signs with, he could be higher19. Shipp- Young up and coming offense now with Dennis Green, Shipp should be solid next year, assuming Emmitt doesnt steal too many carries.20. Barber- Could move up by draft day(how many months til august anyway? are there football mags out yet?) pending how new coach uses him.Honorable mention- Westbrook- Hmm, another guy with injury concerns, but if he stays healthy and Duce does leave, he could be a real steal next year.edited to add Lee Suggs
