100% complete agreement - you can NOT predict injury, but the risk of injury, based on history and/or feeling about style of play is a consideration.It is not hard to make it scientific, as long as you do projections. I just wait until the FBGuys release their initial projections, I tweak them, and for the top 25 RBs, top 15 QBs and top 15 WRs I multiply their total projected FPs by an injury risk value. They are then ranked based on injury risk, relative to anticipated production. For example Manning would end up at the top next to C-Pepp since he has a 95% chance of injury. I multiply his FPoints by .95. I think Vick is still a TREMENDOUS injury risk and would assign a 75% risk of injury = X .75. I generally won't go lower than 75% (or projected to miss 1/4 of the season) because you are dealing with the upper talent, and if they DON'T get injured, you have significantly downgraded them due to injury.In any case, this "top-player injury list" is used along with a personal preferences list and the latest VBD app in combination to give me one single master list of the top playersm, which is what I then take to the draft - the injury risk I originally assigned to each player is noted on the master list. The rest of the players I draft ignorant of injury risks as I really only care about the top guys getting injured. You can also assign every top player a 1, 2, or 3 - calling 1 low risk of injury, 2 medium risk, and 3 a high risk of injury. When debating between comparable players, select the one with a lower injury risk number.That all said - on the discussion above re: AGreen, B.S. I wasn't going to say anything, but AGreen missed zero games in 2003, and Favre said a few weeks ago that he was not going to retire (and I seriously doubt he will change his mind). Fumbling is def. a problem, but more important to AGReen than any of these factors is his OL health. Hurt OL in 2002, out of the top-10. Healthy OL in 2003, top-3 back. I will be ranking him as if he has a healhy OL.My new and improved (will change again tomorrow) top-20:1) LT - the surest thing in fantasy to finish top-5 since Marshall 1999.2) Priest - 27 TDs and 4th rtanked yardage scare me into a drop in production, but even a dropped Priest is a top-5 finish.3) AGReen - healthy OL and he seriously competes for #1 again.4) Deuce - love'em. Never had a shot at him in 2003 after he saved my year in 2002 after making Warner my #1 pick.5) JLew - no 2G rusher will fall out of my top-5.6) SAlexander - if Hass to DJax wasn't so strong, he'd be above JLew - they go away from the running game in favor of the passing game sometimes.7) Portis - HIS injury risk scares me. And, he has publicly said he doesn't want the ball more than 20 times so he can stay "fresh" all game. Simply not a guy I WANT on my sqaud.8) Fred Taylor - after two full years of pounding with no injuries, I think we are about to see the Fred T we all thought he could be - and he has LOW carries, but lots of experience. It is like getting a fourth year back about to enter his prime.9) Edgerrin James - he seems to have his burst back - had he played 6 of the game she missed, where would he be ranked? All he needs is a 16-game campaign next year to be a top-5 back again.10) Ricky Williams - I'd drop him lower on another feeling that he will decline again, but can't drop him out of the top-10 as a phin fan. I just hope I draft higher than #10 so I don't have to make the decision. I love Ricky as a 'phin, but if I go through my entire FF life never owning him, that is fine by me.11) Travis Henry - McGahee doesn't scare me as much as others - I think he's good for another 320+ carry year, but his reception numbers (as few as they were) will be hurt as McGahee comes in on third down. Injuries scare me, too, but he obviously plays through them.12) Domanick Davis - I actually like him better than Ricky and Henry, but can't bring myself to draft him in the first round as a RB1, or rank him in the top-10. He is my #1 choice for a RB2, though, and if he is available and I have any of the guys ranked 1-9, I will probably take him over Ricky or Henry.13) Faulk - if he returns. Count on him missing 2 or 3 games, so he drops low, but that explosiveness is still there. He led my playoff push in 2003 into a Super Bowl, but I don't think I'd want to count on him as my RB1 ever again.214) SDavis - I have a real fear of injuries with him, and DFoster has a ton of upside. This offense should shift to a RBBC situation to save Davis' body. I'd just like to take this time to say that DFoster looked REALLY good in relief of Davis in the Rams game. I don't know how they can keep the kid off the field.15) Rudi Johnson - I was really impresed with that combination of power and break away ability. He had a lot of long runs. The Bengals are definitely a run-first team, and Rudi gets a lot of benfit from that.16) KBarlow - when his contract situation gets straightened out, he (and Rudi) may jump up over Faulk in my rankings. Another freak combination of speed and size, and a healthy SF line can easily churn out 2G+ rushing yards. If Barlow get sthe bulk of those, he'll be big.17) Tiki Barber - we're starting to get into the guys I have serious questions about. I am not convinced with a new coach that Tiki will be given the ball even 75% of the time. But, he is explosive and catches a lot of passes, and that won't change. He is def. behind the rookies I like, though, once they get selected. He will fall from this spot before draft day.18) MShipp - I love him, but as long as Emmitt is there, and as long as the Cards stay the Cards, his fantasy value will be limited. A serious enigma of a selection.19) Lee Suggs - if I know he is the man in Cleveland, he might get a bit of a bump, but the Cle. running game is still not worth a ton of fantasy consideration. If it looks like a committee in Cleveland, replace Suggs with Brian Westbrook.20) Curtis Martin - the wheels have come off, the buggy should be left in the station, but I am betting CuMar felt deprived last year without Pennie and will have THIS year as his last hurrah (last year was unimpressive). He can't possibly miss the endzone that much with 100 yard games again, can he?? But think iof getting two of the top-16 guys and backing them up with CuMar at your RB3. That's a worthy RB crew, huh?Notable by ommission: Bennett/OSmith/MWilliams, Garner/Fargas, EGeorge/CBrown, Bettis/Zereoue, Hearst, Canidate/Betts, Staley/Buck/Westbrook, Hambrick, Corey Dillon, Thomas Jones/Pittman/Alstott, Dunn/Duckett, any and all rookies.The list above will expand to 25 names once some of the "notables" have found a home, and once the rookies are drafted. Is it just me, or is this a DEEP RB class - if you get two of the top 16 on the list, you should be set at RB barring injury. And most of the #17 through #25 are worth a RB3 gamble, and could easily be starters. And then there is the possibility of someone else emerging due to injuries - a rookie, or a guy like CBrown - and then there are the "handcuff" guys.Lat year, the top18 or 19 looked really good, but then there was a steep dropoff - this year, there are drops, but the dropoff seems more shallow after you pass the #17 RB - just seems there is a plethora of RB3, RB4 types that could emereg in the year, or have done it before.
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2004 Top 15 NFL RB's (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter eoMMan
- Start date
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
nicely done Smelvin, back to Green for a second, i said his injruy risk was a concern, but a little one. I know he stayed healthy all season, but some small injuries(sore knee and strained quadricept) rendered him almost useless in 2002.
zamboni
Footballguy
Yes, Duce killed the Cowboys, but that was a few years ago and obviously pre-Parcells.Interestingly enough, Buckhalter had a couple of stellar games this year versus the 'Boys (11-52-1 and 13-115-1). I'm not saying Buckhalter is in the Cowboys plans, but if the tender price isn't too high, you never know.
Shooter McGavin
Down the middle
Here's the superstitious, stupid reason that I'll probably avoid him:In my main league, we are allowed one keeper, and we give up the draft pick where we got the player the prior year. We can keep a guy for two years, and the second year, we give up a first round pick, if we opt to do that. One team's last 3 keepers, and what befell them after they were put back into the draft pool:Terrell Davis - ripped up his kneeMarshall Faulk - Drafted first overall and was bothered by injuries for most of the yearJamal Lewis - made it through ok the year after knee surgeryFred Taylor - ???PLEASE do not select him then. I like him and would take him early, and I don't want you bad mojo hitting my running back.
What years were each back in the pool for redrafting?Here's the superstitious, stupid reason that I'll probably avoid him:In my main league, we are allowed one keeper, and we give up the draft pick where we got the player the prior year. We can keep a guy for two years, and the second year, we give up a first round pick, if we opt to do that. One team's last 3 keepers, and what befell them after they were put back into the draft pool:Terrell Davis - ripped up his kneeMarshall Faulk - Drafted first overall and was bothered by injuries for most of the yearJamal Lewis - made it through ok the year after knee surgeryFred Taylor - ???
Shooter McGavin
Down the middle
Davis - 1999Faulk - 2002Lewis - 2003Taylor - 2004Actually, it appears that his powers are weakening. Taylor should by the top RB in the league next year!
packersfan
Footballguy
My list entirely subject to frequent change 
1. Holmes: Even if he doesn't score 27 TDs again, he's a #### good bet to get around 20. And as a runner and receiver, he's rock solid for yardage. 2. Tomlinson: If this team ever gets him a supporting cast, he could break the TD record Holmes just set. Receptions will probably come down, but he still should be good for 70-plus. 3. Green: "Injury-risk" label is highly over-rated when you look at the games he plays and his production. Offensive line may lose Clifton, but is still terrific and with Davenport around, Green will stay fresh all year long. 4. Portis: In terms of pure talent, I would rank him No. 1. But until he proves he can play an entire season I can't put him in the top 3. Even at No. 4, there's some concern but the upside is too great to let him go any further. 5. McAllister: I'm a little concerned by his late-season fade, but he's too good to slip past here. 6. Lewis: Won't rush for 2,000 yards again, but there's no reason to worry about him falling below 1,400. 7. Alexander: Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns. 8. R. Williams: Coming off disappointing year and back-to-back shoulder injuries concern me, but get this guy a decent QB and I think we'll see better numbers next year and a return to being a solid No. 1 RB. 9. Edge: I'm still not 100 percent sold on him being a No. 1 RB and I really wonder if he can stay healthy for an entire year and be a consistent TD performer. But he did finish the year very strong and that's encouraging. 10. F.Taylor: Has stayed healthy the past two seasons and the Jags have a talented young QB to take the pressure off him. One big concern is whether he can be a consistent TD performer. But the upside is there and he's still young. 11. Henry: He could fall if the Bills make a strong commitment to McGahee, but when you consider how putrid Bledsoe and the passing game was, what Henry did this year was amazing. He's legit. 12. Faulk: How the mighty have fallen. He's clearly not the RB he was just a couple of years ago, but when he's healthy he can still produce. He scares me, but it's hard to let him slip any further. 13. S. Davis: Injuries and age are creeping up on him, but even if he only plays 14 games, he should be good for at least 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs. Hard to argue with that. 14. Barlow: If he gets a full-time starting job, his upside is off the charts. 15. D.Davis: Durability is a huge concern for Davis, but his combination of rushing and receiving make him a prime No. 2 fantasy RB. 16. Rudi Johnson: Please give this guy a starting job Marvin Lewis. You won't be disappointed. And neither will the owners who grab him here and watch him put No. 1-type numbers. 17. Barber: Should continue to be a multi-purpose threat for the Giants, but fumbles and lack of TDs this year are huge concerns. On the plus side, there's really nobody else here the Giants can turn to consistently, so he'll be very involved, and the Giants have to be better next year than they were this year. They just have to be. 18. Brian Westbrook: You could easily make a case for him to be ranked higher given his 13 TDs, but with Buckhalter still there (and maybe Staley too, stranger things have happened), he won't get all the carries and his fantasy production will be muted a bit. But this year may have just been the tip of the iceberg for this guy. He's the real deal. 19. C. Martin: He treated the end zone like a horny sailor on shore leave whose only female option was Rosie O'Donnell, but there's no way to ignore his solid yardage numbers. With Pennington healthy for the entire season, Martin should be solid there again next year and he has to score more than 1 TD, doesn't he? 20a. Shipp: Talented RB, but will Denny Green commit fully to him or waste everyone's time by using Emmitt too? 20b. Michael Bennnett: So much can change here, but one thing Tice demonstrated repeatedly this season is that Bennett is his preferred No. 1 RB ahead of Smith and Moe. Assuming that doesn't change next year, Bennett will be a fine No. 2 RB given his yardage potential. Also, keep in mind his TD production has increased during his full seasons so a shot at 8-9 isn't out of the question. Yea I went with 21, but until those situations in Arizona and Minnesota become more clear, it's tough for me to separate Shipp and Bennett. And also looking at the list again, I will probably end up moving Barlow ahead of Stephen Davis and I may inch Domanick Davis and Rudi ahead of Stephen Davis too.
1. Holmes: Even if he doesn't score 27 TDs again, he's a #### good bet to get around 20. And as a runner and receiver, he's rock solid for yardage. 2. Tomlinson: If this team ever gets him a supporting cast, he could break the TD record Holmes just set. Receptions will probably come down, but he still should be good for 70-plus. 3. Green: "Injury-risk" label is highly over-rated when you look at the games he plays and his production. Offensive line may lose Clifton, but is still terrific and with Davenport around, Green will stay fresh all year long. 4. Portis: In terms of pure talent, I would rank him No. 1. But until he proves he can play an entire season I can't put him in the top 3. Even at No. 4, there's some concern but the upside is too great to let him go any further. 5. McAllister: I'm a little concerned by his late-season fade, but he's too good to slip past here. 6. Lewis: Won't rush for 2,000 yards again, but there's no reason to worry about him falling below 1,400. 7. Alexander: Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns. 8. R. Williams: Coming off disappointing year and back-to-back shoulder injuries concern me, but get this guy a decent QB and I think we'll see better numbers next year and a return to being a solid No. 1 RB. 9. Edge: I'm still not 100 percent sold on him being a No. 1 RB and I really wonder if he can stay healthy for an entire year and be a consistent TD performer. But he did finish the year very strong and that's encouraging. 10. F.Taylor: Has stayed healthy the past two seasons and the Jags have a talented young QB to take the pressure off him. One big concern is whether he can be a consistent TD performer. But the upside is there and he's still young. 11. Henry: He could fall if the Bills make a strong commitment to McGahee, but when you consider how putrid Bledsoe and the passing game was, what Henry did this year was amazing. He's legit. 12. Faulk: How the mighty have fallen. He's clearly not the RB he was just a couple of years ago, but when he's healthy he can still produce. He scares me, but it's hard to let him slip any further. 13. S. Davis: Injuries and age are creeping up on him, but even if he only plays 14 games, he should be good for at least 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs. Hard to argue with that. 14. Barlow: If he gets a full-time starting job, his upside is off the charts. 15. D.Davis: Durability is a huge concern for Davis, but his combination of rushing and receiving make him a prime No. 2 fantasy RB. 16. Rudi Johnson: Please give this guy a starting job Marvin Lewis. You won't be disappointed. And neither will the owners who grab him here and watch him put No. 1-type numbers. 17. Barber: Should continue to be a multi-purpose threat for the Giants, but fumbles and lack of TDs this year are huge concerns. On the plus side, there's really nobody else here the Giants can turn to consistently, so he'll be very involved, and the Giants have to be better next year than they were this year. They just have to be. 18. Brian Westbrook: You could easily make a case for him to be ranked higher given his 13 TDs, but with Buckhalter still there (and maybe Staley too, stranger things have happened), he won't get all the carries and his fantasy production will be muted a bit. But this year may have just been the tip of the iceberg for this guy. He's the real deal. 19. C. Martin: He treated the end zone like a horny sailor on shore leave whose only female option was Rosie O'Donnell, but there's no way to ignore his solid yardage numbers. With Pennington healthy for the entire season, Martin should be solid there again next year and he has to score more than 1 TD, doesn't he? 20a. Shipp: Talented RB, but will Denny Green commit fully to him or waste everyone's time by using Emmitt too? 20b. Michael Bennnett: So much can change here, but one thing Tice demonstrated repeatedly this season is that Bennett is his preferred No. 1 RB ahead of Smith and Moe. Assuming that doesn't change next year, Bennett will be a fine No. 2 RB given his yardage potential. Also, keep in mind his TD production has increased during his full seasons so a shot at 8-9 isn't out of the question. Yea I went with 21, but until those situations in Arizona and Minnesota become more clear, it's tough for me to separate Shipp and Bennett. And also looking at the list again, I will probably end up moving Barlow ahead of Stephen Davis and I may inch Domanick Davis and Rudi ahead of Stephen Davis too.
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3nOut
Footballguy
I guess its time for your first change alreadyMy list entirely subject to frequent change
HOw can you not put Ricky in your list?
packersfan
Footballguy
Whooops. Good catch there. My bad. Told you it was off the top of my head.I guess its time for your first change alreadyMy list entirely subject to frequent change
Off to edit. Thanks for picking that up for me. nightshift
Footballguy
or Stephen Davis?I guess its time for your first change alreadyMy list entirely subject to frequent change
packersfan
Footballguy
He's on the list. I had him at No. 12 and moved him to No. 13 after adding Ricky.or Stephen Davis?I guess its time for your first change alreadyMy list entirely subject to frequent change
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Dont you guys have Dillon in your top 20? once he signs with a team, i cant imagine him not being in anyones top 20.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair point - if he evolves into a good situation, he'll likely be in revised lists. But it's not all that clear that a team will make him a go-to guy with his attitude, mileage, etc., which probably makes him iffy as top 20 right now.You could probably throw at least one rookie in there, too, but we don't know yet until the draft.
Edit: or going in reverse. Didn't Faulk finish 2002 in the top-10, but simply missed a few games?And JLew's 2003 is one of the best rushing years on record.Davis, I can see th eproblem, but that one kind of jumped up and bit everyone - coincidences are not something magical.Davis - 1999Faulk - 2002Lewis - 2003Taylor - 2004Actually, it appears that his powers are weakening. Taylor should by the top RB in the league next year!
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packersfan
Footballguy
He's a tough one to rank -- even if he gets in a good situation. He has never been a consistent fantasy RB. He's a virtual certainty to follow up back-to-back 100-yard games with about three straight games of 30-40 yards. He's frustrating as hell if you have him and I don't know if even the right situation will change that - especially when you consider his advancing age. If he were to sign with a team like Dallas, though, I'd probably put him around 18-20, but not any higher. He's just never been a guy I liked all that much from a fantasy perspective.
very happy to see so many people so high on jamal lewis. i saw someone even mention how he will go back to his usual median and rank his at like #6. insane! not since before his injury would lewis' name be mentioned as a first round pick. i can only hope someone in one of my leagues wastes on early pick on him. same goes for d. davis. several top 10 rankings out there for him i saw. he did a great job this year of proving he is not durable enough to be the man every week in the season. also very happy to see how far ricky williams has fallen...he represents awesome value for where he will hopefully be available to get him this upcoming year.
WarRedbirds
Footballguy
1. Tomlinson- Unbelievable receiving numbers in the 2nd half of the year.2. Holmes- Will drop off and only get 15 TD's but he is still strong.3. Green- Didn't fumble once in last 9 games including playoffs.4. Lewis- Can't expect 2,000 yards but the O-line is still great and Boller will need help5. Portis- If not injury prone I would probably make him number 3 but the injuries are a problem. 6. James- Finally back after the injuries and had a great 2nd half7. McAllister- Great running and receiving, exploded this year8. Alexander- Dances too much to be a top 5 back but definitely can score.9. R. Williams- I would love to get Williams here because I think he will definitely bounce back.10. Faulk- Would be wary of injuries and age but he's still a good back and had a really good 2nd half.11. Taylor- Scared by the injuries but I would take him here after 2 really durable seasons12. S. Davis- Again with the injury problem and Foster will push but I think Fox would rather stick with one back13. D. Davis- The surprise of 2003 continues to flourish especially in passing game14. R. Johnson- Presuming Dillon is gone, Johnson steps up and shows the same ability as this year15. Henry- McGahee can't break in too much yet and Henry is still good for TD's16. Barber- Fumbles are a problem but there's no one else that the Giants can use. If any of the next 4 guys are the main guy I would put them ahead of him.17. Barlow- If he is the number 1 guy, could move him up as high as 12.18. Dillon- Depending on where ends up could be very productive.19. Westbrook- If Staley leaves, Westbrook becomes very valuable especially in leagues with return yards.20. Staley- If he ends up with the right team, he will only be 29 and hasn't been overused.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Wheres all the love for Suggs?
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
He sure looked good against Lewis' defense in Cinncinnati. If they get one of the two big tackles in the draft, Suggs is in the top 15 for sure.
packersfan
Footballguy
I like his potential quite a bit, but until we see what happens with the offensive line and William Green it's tough to rank Suggs too high. I do think he's a Top 20 talent if he gets a starting job, however, but ranking him there on the basis of 1 start (albeit an awesome one) would be a bit of a risk when you think about the more proven RBs who should also be in that range. I said it another thread, but I think potentially, next year's RBs are going to be very deep for fantasy owners. There appears to be a large supply of No. 2 RBs who will be available instead of seeing the pickings get slim after after the top 15 or so as was the case this year.
I can't say "for sure" about any runner being top-15 in the NFL next year - at least not after perusing the guys I have top-15. There seem to be a lot of "sure" things, and I'll def. be examining Suggs come draft day.I am slowly coming to the RB-WR-RB philosophy for 2004 over the RB-RB-WR system I used this past year. There is a derth of top WR talent, and then a big mishmosh of guys I could use as WR2, but there seem to be a TON of RBs who would make good RB2 candidates. It is the simple VBD concept of wanting one of the top 4 or 5 WRs, who will likely be leaps and bounds better than my opponents' WR1, and willing to take the slight disadvantage at RB2, where there seems to be a ton of depth.Of course, the talent available per-round depending on where I am drafting has a lot to do with that - if I'm in the middle, the RB talent in the 2nd round will probably be too good to pass on, even for the most talented of WRs. I pray for Vick , Cpepp and Manning to get lots of hype and have some guppies go QB early, which will leave a bnch of WR/RB talent to drop into the third and fourth for me.
packersfan
Footballguy
This is the point I was getting at with my comment about the (seemingly at this point) large numbers of No. 2 RBs who will be available in drafts. I think it's entirely possible there will be 20-25 RBs all worth drafting in the first two rounds. That's a huge increase over most years and definitely over this year when the talent really dropped off after the Top 15 or so. If that really is the case, then a WR in the second round becomes a much more viable option for those of us who believe strongly in the RB-RB scenario. Depending on where you draft, you could walk off with a fine No. 1 RB, a top-notch No. 1 WR (and as you point out, there are few of them available as certainties) and a solid No. 2 RB on the way back in the third round. The risk of hoping a good No. 2 RB will be there in the third round appears to be minimized this season if the rankings pan out the way I think they might. Or you could go RB-RB-RB and really be stacked at that position throughout the season.
packersfan, we're on the ball. From the bottom part of my top-20 list on the previous page in this thread:
That shallow drop-off, and throwing in the 3 QBs that will probably all go in the top 3 rounds, and there should be good RBs dropping to the third. Under most scenarios, it'll still go RB-RB for me, but some spots - most notably the #8 and #9, and #3 and #4 spots in a typical 12-team redraft might find me going RB-WR-RB.Since I'm fairly sold on drafting a QBBC late (as I did that last year and nabbed, between three leagues, Ramsey, Hass, Garcia and TGreen), the 4th though 6th rounds should be interesting as a TON of WR2 talent, top TE talent, and handcuff/RBBC RB players should be available. If you can sack it up to take two QBs with your 7th and 8th round pick instead of one early, you could assemble a really deep WR/RB corps in the top half of the draft.
packersfan
Footballguy
I think we're in real agreement on the key point about there being more depth next year (potentially) at RB than we've seen in awhile. I think where we differ a bit is I think there might be a little more depth. You mention the Top 16 looking good; I think it could extend into the 20s a bit -- depending on what happens with some situations like Minnesota, Cleveland and where Dillon ends up (although as I mentioned above he's never been a guy I've liked a lot -- but for value in the 18-22 range if he's there with a starting job he's looking good). I think this can really open the doors to the owners savvy enough to see this depth for what it may prove to be. So if you can snare a top-flight WR in the second round, there's not as much fear of failing to find a solid to strong No. 2 RB in the third because the depth is so good. That makes the WR position a little less of a crapshoot than it often is (and probably was for a lot of owners this season when you consider how many of the Top 20 guys under-achieved for one reason or another). So if you do get that "stud" WR in the second round and a solid RB in the third, you really can load up at WR and RB in the middle rounds. But I also think this gives you a luxury of maybe grabbing a proven QB like Manning or Culpepper if one of them were to drop a bit. Essentially, what you have now due to the potential RB depth is some real flexibility to build a much stronger team. Man it's only January and I'm already in mock draft mode.
I'm gonna mock my ash off this spring so it is second nature come my money drafts later in the summer.I really look forward to draft style discussions again. I REALLY want to hear from some WR-WR folks on what happened over the year with their RB sitch and whether a TO/Moss/Harrison combo was worth it.Man it's only January and I'm already in mock draft mode.
Zman800
Footballguy
I am up to a mock draft for 04 right now. Then after the real NFL draft just to do it.The draft is definitely one of the best parts of playing the game.I believe grabbing a stud WR next year in the 1st two rounds will depend on your league size and draft position.In our 12 teamer redraft typically Harrison, Moss, and Owens are gone by middle of the 2nd round coming back.Then Holt went off the board top of the 3rd round with Moulds. I'm thinking people will be gun shy on Moulds and C. Johnson will probably move up into the top 5 of the draft for WR's.Then Hines Ward will go early 4th possibly late 3rd too. Boldin probably by middle of the 4th. It would not suprise me if the big 3, Holt and C. Johnson are gone by the end of round 3.But I love Steve Smith as a WR2, hopeful steal in the 5th round. He may not last until then.
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Burning Sensation
Footballguy
For the most part, these are peoples top 20 list. I cant really see too many people thinking he is a top 20 RB.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
i suppose anything is possible, but after how bad he has proven to be, he would need to have alot more than 4-5 good games for me to even consider him in the top 20.
Perfect Tommy
Footballguy
I noticed that Anthony Thomas isn't getting a lot of love. To me he has a very high upside. He has established his place as the feature back for the Bears and is also sure to be the goal line guy. As long as Kordell isn't the starter, the team's offensive production rates to get better. I would be surprised if he didn't finish in the top 15.
packersfan
Footballguy
That's the way I feel as well. If he does return to Tampa Bay and gets a starting job, he's someone to keep an eye on. But if Alstott returns, there's no reason to expect Jones will continue to get the goal-line carries which will reduce his value. Plus, Pittman's status remains in question and if he's still there he'll be involved in some way as well -- perhaps only as a third-down RB, but still active enough in the offense to impact Jones' value.
packersfan
Footballguy
He's one of those guys I would, right now, rank in the low 20s. I'm not 100 percent sold on him, but he did some good things last year and was certainly better than in 2002. He's another guy who could emerge nicely as you point out which is why I really like the depth at this position going into next season. This position could be 20-25 deep next year and a guy like Thomas could end up providing nice value even if he doesn't crack a lot of Top 20 rankings.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed - if Jones returns to Tampa as the starter, yet Alstott and/or Pittman do as well, Jones' value will not likely warrant top 20 consideration.Fortunately for Jones, he's probably the best UFA prospect out there in a weak class, so he may get some suitors (Dallas, New England, etc.). He could go elsewhere as the clear cut feature guy, or perhaps, with another offer in hand, use his leverage to reasonably assure himself of being the guy in Tampa. We'll see in the next several weeks what his leaguewide value is. But if he is the everydown back somewhere, I think he certainly warrants top 20 consideration.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Smlevin,Dallas might bring him in, but they will probably also try and bring in a rookie or another young guy becuase Deuce obviously isn't the long term answer.I don't think Dallas's thoughts are for Deuce to be this every down back for them next year.If he comes, he'll be productive from a football standpoint, but I think it'll be RBBC but with Deuce getting a lot of the carries. Not necessarily getting goal line carries either.
Here's the guy who I really overlooked - I always miss someone on my iniitial lists - plug him in around Tiki Barber on my list . With all the talent down to #16/#17, ATrain is one of the better RB3 players to have. We'll have to see what the new coach brings to that team before I elevate him too high.
Goat Herders
Footballguy
Re: Thomas JonesI'm of the opinion that Gruden played him so much towards the end of the season to see what he had at the position (a) in case Pittman is "held up" reporting to camp next year and (b) so he could decide how hard they wanted to try and keep Jones.In a series of otherwise lackluster games, Jones performed admirably and will most likely not get a huge payday from another team with such depth in the draft and a number of other, arguably better RBs as FA of some sort (Barlow, Duce, possibly Dillon).I think Jones is the feature back next year in Tampa with Gruden actually decreasing Alstott's workload so he has a chance to stay healthy. Keep in mind that Jones put up decent numbers without Alstott blocking for him...HERD
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
As if Alstott blocking for him would help.
I agree Jones will not be on the top of any teams RB wish list. He stays in TB, and gets roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of the carries. If Pittman does not return, or maybe even if he does, look for the Bucs to take a RB somewhere in the draft. He may be decent in spurts, but Thomas Jones is NOT the long term answer for this, or any team.
derek245583
Footballguy
The funniest thing I have read all year!!!!
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
I am surprised that Lewis isn't higher on most of these lists.SLOD
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Sonny.....I mean Sea Leopard, he is right there with the other top RB's, i have him at 5, but the gap between him and one is not that big.
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
Still, not that the difference between 1 and 5 is even discernable, I am surprised that people are consistently putting 4 or 5 backs in front of him.2000 yards is one thing...but, the fact that the Ravens Defense is young and should improve
is another. Add to it their QB situation, and this is one of the teams you KNOW will have to run the ball and control the clock to win.He is still young...appears to be durable, sans ACL's, and wants the ball all day.Portis, for example, is being consistently taken higher. Fine, but there are questions with his durability and the likeliness of Griffin taking some of the load.Lewis is not only a good pick...he is a very safe one. The situation he is in is unlikely to change. It doesn't matter so much if your 1st pick finishes # 1 or # 6, but if he flops, you're screwed.SLOD
packersfan
Footballguy
I could very easily see Lewis being ranked ahead of Portis (I had him one spot lower on my list). You're right, he's proven to be durable and his situation should lead to another strong season of rushing production -- even if he falls well short of 2,000 yards. The thing is, I simply would not take him ahead of the Top 3 RBs, who all (typically) combine receiving production with their rushing, something Lewis does not do. And although I could see strongly considering it, I simply don't believe Lewis has Portis' upside since I think Portis is a more talented RB. As a Portis owner this year, I'm well aware of the durability issue, but if he ever does play an entire season, he could make a run at 2,000 yards himself with 20-plus TDs. He's that good. In fact, in terms of pure talent I think he's arguably the best RB in the game right now. It's the question about his durability which would prevent me from taking him any higher than 4th. But if you're hesitant about that injury possibility and simply want someone you feel confident will be there all 16 games, then Lewis definitely would be a tremendous guy to take ahead of Portis.Still, not that the difference between 1 and 5 is even discernable, I am surprised that people are consistently putting 4 or 5 backs in front of him.2000 yards is one thing...but, the fact that the Ravens Defense is young and should improve