2006 Bust Thread (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Everyone wants to discuss sleepers or the SOD of '06 and nobody wants to discuss busts(not surprising given human nature).

I'll start with one:

T. Holt

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Lamont Jordan and Santana Moss

 

[f360spyder]

Galloway

 

[PsychoMan]

Thomas Jones (Rex opens up passing game ? - Benson sees more action)

 

[Snot Bubbler]

T. Holt

Why Holt? New HC?

 

[Snot Bubbler]

Lamont Jordan

Why Jordan? New QB? New HC?

 

[Snot Bubbler]

Santana Moss

Why Moss? I can't really think of a reason why he would have a sudden downfall next year...

 

[John 14:6]

I'll venture a guess of Rudi Johnson. He had a great stretch of 2 TD games this year and I don't think he can duplicate that next year. Also, Chris Perry could keep getting more touches.

 

[Mr. Pink]

I'm with you there. Rudi's run of great games also coincided with Perry's injury. Not that it kept him out of many games, but it limited his touches and effectiveness and Rudi profitted greatly as a result.

 

[Blackjacks]

Wow, it's hard to say this guy's name after the great year he had but I'll say it anyways.....Shaun (MVP) Alexander. Going to be 29, losing a All-Pro guard and coming off a great season. This is usually the setting.

 

[zamboni]

Shaun Alexander - if he leaves Seattle, that is.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm with you there. Rudi's run of great games also coincided with Perry's injury. Not that it kept him out of many games, but it limited his touches and effectiveness and Rudi profitted greatly as a result.

Hmmm . . . In 2003, he was on pace for 1557/263/14 (increasing his production to a full year's workload).

In 2004 he had 1454/84/12.

In 2005 he had 1458/90/12.

Looks pretty consistent to me.

 

[John 14:6]

I'm with you there.  Rudi's run of great games also coincided with Perry's injury.  Not that it kept him out of many games, but it limited his touches and effectiveness and Rudi profitted greatly as a result.

Hmmm . . . In 2003, he was on pace for 1557/263/14 (increasing his production to a full year's workload).

In 2004 he had 1454/84/12.

In 2005 he had 1458/90/12.

Looks pretty consistent to me.

That's exactly why he'd be considered a bust Of course this is pure speculation, but when I look for bust candidates I look at players who most will expect to do good. For example, Muhammad dropped off quite a bit from last year to this year, but everyone expected it so it's hard to label him a bust.

Now I'm not going to sig bet on this or anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Rudi does have another great year. I'm just throwing him out there as a candidate because of Chris Perry's workload possibly increasing.

 

[PsychoMan]

I disagree with the Santana Moss choice. I think a lot of people will assume he had one blow up year and he'll go back to "normal" again.As the #1 WR in Washington, Laveranues Coles caught 82 & 90 catches last two years (a lot of catches, but didn't get too much yardage and no touchdowns).As the #1 WR in NYJ, Santana Moss had 74 and 45 catches (had a good yards per catch and still scored a decent # of touchdowns).This year Moss had 84 catches (about what Coles had as their #1 WR).With his big play potential (much like Steve Smith), and the fact that Washington throws a LOT to their #1 wideout, I actually expect the same production from him as this year, if not better.

 

[-OZ-]

I disagree with the Santana Moss choice. I think a lot of people will assume he had one blow up year and he'll go back to "normal" again.

As the #1 WR in Washington, Laveranues Coles caught 82 & 90 catches last two years (a lot of catches, but didn't get too much yardage and no touchdowns).

As the #1 WR in NYJ, Santana Moss had 74 and 45 catches (had a good yards per catch and still scored a decent # of touchdowns).

This year Moss had 84 catches (about what Coles had as their #1 WR).

With his big play potential (much like Steve Smith), and the fact that Washington throws a LOT to their #1 wideout, I actually expect the same production from him as this year, if not better.

I happen to own Moss in one league and I like the kid, but with the questions at QB, he could easily be a bust if Campbell/Ramsey don't pan out. Smith has one of the better QBs in the league throwing to him.IMO, Moss could be along the lines of Lee Evans this year, again depending on the QB. That would still be start-worthy, but top 40 while he was a top 10 in '05.

I'll say it if nobody else will - Larry Johnson - who is the OC? Line? Priest? Too many questions and he's being projected as a top 3 or #1 overall.

 

[zamboni]

I disagree with the Santana Moss choice. I think a lot of people will assume he had one blow up year and he'll go back to "normal" again.

As the #1 WR in Washington, Laveranues Coles caught 82 & 90 catches last two years (a lot of catches, but didn't get too much yardage and no touchdowns).

As the #1 WR in NYJ, Santana Moss had 74 and 45 catches (had a good yards per catch and still scored a decent # of touchdowns).

This year Moss had 84 catches (about what Coles had as their #1 WR).

With his big play potential (much like Steve Smith), and the fact that Washington throws a LOT to their #1 wideout, I actually expect the same production from him as this year, if not better.

Moss is a terrific receiver, but is much more of a big play guy as opposed to a possession receiver. Thus, a lot of production comes from when the QB (Testeverde in New York, Brunell in Wash) throw the ball downfield effectively. That's not to say that Santana will probably suffer a severe dropoff, but if Brunell is not throwing the long ball next year nearly as well (or the line doesn't give him time), that could meaningfully hurt Moss.

 

[nygiants56]

Wow, it's hard to say this guy's name after the great year he had but I'll say it anyways.....Shaun (MVP) Alexander. Going to be 29, losing a All-Pro guard and coming off a great season. This is usually the setting.

interesting info, from fantasyindex.fom, in regards to previous rushing champs:

Rushing Champion Jinx?

Shaun Alexander was pretty ticked off when he lost the rushing title by 1 yard last season, and who wouldn't be? Well, maybe anyone who checks the stats for the previous decade's worth of rushing champions the following season. Is there a rushing champion jinx? Probably not, but considering only three of them have improved on their numbers a year later, and the remaining seven have experienced at least a 26-percent drop in yardage numbers, you can make a case for it. Now that Alexander finally has his title, maybe he'll wish he hadn't made so much noise about not having it the year before....

Year Top Rusher Yards Yards

Next Year %

Change

2004 Curtis Martin 1,697 735 -57%

2003 Jamal Lewis 2,066 1,006 -52%

2002 Ricky Williams 1,853 1,372 -26%

2001 Priest Holmes 1,555 1,615 +4%

2000 Edgerrin James 1,709 662 -62%

1999 Egerrin James 1,553 1,709 +9%

1998 Terrell Davis 2,008 211 -90%

1997 Barry Sanders 2,053 1,491 -28%

1996 Barry Sanders 1,553 2,053 +24%

1995 Emmitt Smith 1,773 1,204 -32%

26% dropoff as an average?!?! eesh! isn't hutchinson a F/A in 2006? if so, he could be elsewhere..

SA will test the free agent waters, and some team will probably sign him to a mega contract,one that the Seahawks can't/won't match. i don't think they would have taken the franchise tag off if they had the full intention of signing him for the long term..

I agree with the previous post about TJ being a bust next year, can't see the cheap chicago bears paying benson some $30 mil to sit on his fanny on the sidelines...they didn't waste the #4 pick in the draft and all that cash for him to be a statue..

 

[David Yudkin]

Speaking of Alexander . . .In the Top 25 fantasy seasons article I wrote prior to the season, RB as a whole that had Top 25 all-time seasons experienced a 29% decrease in total fantasy points scored. There were 3 new additions to the RB Top 25 (Alexander, Johnson, and Tomlinson). No QB had a Top 25 season this year. Only Steve Smith had a Top 25 season at WR and Gates at TE.

 

[John 14:6]

I'll say it if nobody else will - Larry Johnson - who is the OC? Line? Priest? Too many questions and he's being projected as a top 3 or #1 overall.

I'm not worried about Priest as I think he's done, but I do think the other concerns are legit.Larry and Chad Johnson helped me win a title this year, but I could see both falling next year given the aforementioned KC issues and Carson Palmer's injury status.

 

[Reaper]

I disagree with the Santana Moss choice. I think a lot of people will assume he had one blow up year and he'll go back to "normal" again.

As the #1 WR in Washington, Laveranues Coles caught 82 & 90 catches last two years (a lot of catches, but didn't get too much yardage and no touchdowns).

As the #1 WR in NYJ, Santana Moss had 74 and 45 catches (had a good yards per catch and still scored a decent # of touchdowns).

This year Moss had 84 catches (about what Coles had as their #1 WR).

With his big play potential (much like Steve Smith), and the fact that Washington throws a LOT to their #1 wideout, I actually expect the same production from him as this year, if not better.

Moss is a terrific receiver, but is much more of a big play guy as opposed to a possession receiver. Thus, a lot of production comes from when the QB (Testeverde in New York, Brunell in Wash) throw the ball downfield effectively. That's not to say that Santana will probably suffer a severe dropoff, but if Brunell is not throwing the long ball next year nearly as well (or the line doesn't give him time), that could meaningfully hurt Moss.

ALSO- Moss was a Bargain This year... Next year he's going to get drafted a lot higher and one of his biggest question marks was always STAYING HEALTHY.... I think it was a miracle he finally stayed healthy all year - when he was on the Jets he was "Questionable" more often than Not.....

 

[shredhead]

Year Top Rusher Yards Yards

Next Year %

Change

2004 Curtis Martin 1,697 735 -57%

2003 Jamal Lewis 2,066 1,006 -52%

2002 Ricky Williams 1,853 1,372 -26%

2001 Priest Holmes 1,555 1,615 +4%

2000 Edgerrin James 1,709 662 -62%

1999 Egerrin James 1,553 1,709 +9%

1998 Terrell Davis 2,008 211 -90%

1997 Barry Sanders 2,053 1,491 -28%

1996 Barry Sanders 1,553 2,053 +24%

1995 Emmitt Smith 1,773 1,204 -32%

I know that Terrell Davis and Edgerrin James' numbers both dropped due to injury. Are any of the others dropoffs due to injury? It would be interesting to see what the average dropoff is on players that did not suffer an injury the following year. All I can take from your info is that if SA gets hurt his numbers will drop. Not exactly a newsflash.

 

[msommer]

I'm with you there. Rudi's run of great games also coincided with Perry's injury. Not that it kept him out of many games, but it limited his touches and effectiveness and Rudi profitted greatly as a result.

Maybe there is a lesson for Lewis there - 5 wins - in all cases Rudi Johnson got over 20 carries...

 

[zamboni]

I'm with you there.  Rudi's run of great games also coincided with Perry's injury.  Not that it kept him out of many games, but it limited his touches and effectiveness and Rudi profitted greatly as a result.

Maybe there is a lesson for Lewis there - 5 wins - in all cases Rudi Johnson got over 20 carries...

Not to mention if Palmer isn't 100% by the beginning of the season, Marvin may want to lean that much more heavily on Rudi.

 

[bigliebdogg]

Everyone wants to discuss sleepers or the SOD of '06 and nobody wants to discuss busts(not surprising given human nature).

I'll start with one:

T. Holt

year in and year out the most consistent, dependable WR. maybe not the flashiest but Holt is the kind of guy that wins fantasy championships.

Heck, he won me one this year.

And he is willing to play hurt considering his injury this year was pretty serious and he still only missed a couple of games, and did come back to have a monster game vs the 49ers in my fantasy championship.

holt is the furthest thing from a bust that i could think of. i hope everyone else thinks like you too so i can once again nab him in the late second round

 

[bigliebdogg]

how about deshaun fosterevery year shows flashes of brilliance.played awesome in the playoffs this year, also played great in the playoffs in 03.but his broken ankle vs chicago just proves once again that he is just too fragile and will never hold up for a whole seasoni can't wait until training camp when all the talk will be about deshaun is fully recovered, he is even faster stronger than before the broken ankle, this will finally be the year he breaks through blah blah blah.this is a guy that you will NEVER be able to depend on for a full season of fantasy production

 

[jurb26]

Tiki Barber 2006 = CMart 2005Career year in 2005 and with his age he is due for a fall. Not only that, but the days of picking this guy up on the 2nd or 3rd round are long past. He was a 1st rounder in most of my leagues last year and certianly will be this year. I think he disapoints.

 

[zamboni]

how about deshaun foster

every year shows flashes of brilliance.

played awesome in the playoffs this year, also played great in the playoffs in 03.

but his broken ankle vs chicago just proves once again that he is just too fragile and will never hold up for a whole season

i can't wait until training camp when all the talk will be about deshaun is fully recovered, he is even faster stronger than before the broken ankle, this will finally be the year he breaks through blah blah blah.

this is a guy that you will NEVER be able to depend on for a full season of fantasy production

Fair points, but I doubt anyone will be hitching their team's wagon to this guy. If he's a bust, it will likely be palatable considering where he'll probably be drafted.

 

[dudaman]

Tom BradyDavid Givens is a UFA and will be gone when someone overpays him.Troy Brown might not be back.The running game needs a serious upgrade - status quo will not do.All that said, the offensive line should be pretty strong with Light and Koppen coming back and Kaczur/Mankins having a year of true experience under their belts.So the bust potential is there if his weapons dwindle.

 

[Chaz]

Hate to say it, but Tiki should be considered. This is somewhat ironic, since I have read that nobody will let him fall in their drafts again. The thing is, he just had a monster year, one where everything alligned perfect for him. Two two hundred yard games is surely an abiration. He is not getting any younger, either. I'll also add that Brandon Jacobs was rarely seen this past season. I can foresee him giving Tiki some breaks more often.

 

[wannabee]

Reggie Wayne. While I do not think he will be a complete bust, he could very well have problems if he leaves via free agency.Chris Brown. He finally stayed healthy and finished games. I think this feat will be too difficult to repeat.

 

[Kleck]

Another vote for Alexander if he's on a new team.As a Seattle homer, I hope they invest in Hutchinson if it comes down to a choice between the two.

 

[MagicMan]

Speaking of Alexander . . .

In the Top 25 fantasy seasons article I wrote prior to the season, RB as a whole that had Top 25 all-time seasons experienced a 29% decrease in total fantasy points scored.

There were 3 new additions to the RB Top 25 (Alexander, Johnson, and Tomlinson). No QB had a Top 25 season this year. Only Steve Smith had a Top 25 season at WR and Gates at TE.

Add another thing to the list as to why I will be shopping SA HARD this offseason.

 

[MagicMan]

Another vote for Alexander if he's on a new team.

As a Seattle homer, I hope they invest in Hutchinson if it comes down to a choice between the two.

How much of a dropoff do you predict if he stays in Sea?

 

[rumblinbumblinstumbler]

Edge - Possible new team. But, even if he stays, he had a very heavy workload thru the first 13 weeks and was even on a close to record setting number of carries pace before taking his reduced workload the last 3 weeks. He looked worn down by season's end.

 

[JHeb]

I say Steve Smith...Blew up HUGE this year and may still have a "good" year in 2006 but for those who draft him very early I think they'll be pissed that he dips in production and will be considered a BUST.

 

[mcjc4]

CJ.With fantasy drafts taking place well before we know Palmers status for next season CJ owners will need to roll the dice early and hope Carson is back to this seasons form early. 3 or 4 weeks without Palmer could make for a rough start if CJ is your 2nd round pick.

 

[David Yudkin]

Speaking of Alexander . . .

In the Top 25 fantasy seasons article I wrote prior to the season, RB as a whole that had Top 25 all-time seasons experienced a 29% decrease in total fantasy points scored. 

There were 3 new additions to the RB Top 25 (Alexander, Johnson, and Tomlinson).  No QB had a Top 25 season this year.  Only Steve Smith had a Top 25 season at WR and Gates at TE.

Add another thing to the list as to why I will be shopping SA HARD this offseason.

Before you trade Alexander for a half-eaten pack of bubble gum, bear in mind that much of the drop-off for RB stemmed from injuries or some other expanation for a reduced workload. Most of the top all-time seasons featured guys with 350+ carries, and several of them got hurt. So two things have to happen: a RB needs to get the same extended workload (normally unlikely), remain healthy for 16 games (for most backs somewhat unlikely), and remain as productive (again somewhat unlikely).All that being said, the odds the house are giving for Alexander are "not likely" to repeat with another all-time Top 25 season in 2006. However, the house would have lost in 2005, as Alexander DID have a repeat Top 25 season after his stellar 2004 campaign. (His 2004 season was Top 25 after last year but no longer is, as it would now fall back to the #28 best season for a RB total points wise.)

 

[Kleck]

Another vote for Alexander if he's on a new team.

As a Seattle homer, I hope they invest in Hutchinson if it comes down to a choice between the two.

How much of a dropoff do you predict if he stays in Sea?

Other than Hutchinson/Alexander I see the offense remaining intact. Also, this year's first round pick (C Chris Spencer) may be able to step right in a play at the G spot if they lose Hutchinson. Not sure how many years we have left in Gray and Tobeck, if any. If Alexander stays I see huge numbers for him again. However, I don't think it would be fair to expect him to break records two years in a row.Regardless, I fully expect the Seattle offense to remain quite potent.

 

[John 14:6]

I say Steve Smith...Blew up HUGE this year and may still have a "good" year in 2006 but for those who draft him very early I think they'll be pissed that he dips in production and will be considered a BUST.

I agree. I think teams will start figuring out how to take him out of games, and the Panthers don't have another receiving threat to keep opponents honest.

 

[Kleck]

I say Steve Smith...Blew up HUGE this year and may still have a "good" year in 2006 but for those who draft him very early I think they'll be pissed that he dips in production and will be considered a BUST.

I agree. I think teams will start figuring out how to take him out of games, and the Panthers don't have another receiving threat to keep opponents honest.

I disagree. They don't target anyone else. I think Drew Carter has some serious potential. I like what I've seen frrom him so far.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Lamont Jordan and Santana Moss

another year of cheering against Jordan.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Lamont Jordan and Santana Moss

another year of cheering against Jordan.

No, he is being put in the top 5-10 off the board, and I don't think he will match that next year. I can name plenty of RBs who had a good 1st year as a starter, were drafted highly in FF the nest year and then were busts or fell off dramatically. Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, Willis McGahee, Michael Bennett, Anthony Thomas to name a few.

There is also a quite of bit of turnover in the Top 10 RBs from year to year, especially if you don't count the studs like LT, Alexander, Edge, and Holmes etc., so just because he finished top 10 this year doesn't mean he will do so next year.

With the new coach coming, and the fact that the Raiders didn't win game with dumping the ball off to Jordan as often as they did, I think the QB will have more checks before Jordan becomes the option next year and he will not get as many receptions. Factor that in with the fact that he had a high amount of TDs per carry, his injury and he is one of my Bust candidates for 2006.

I also named S. Moss because I beieve that they will start Jason Campbell next year and he will be shaky, as most beginning starter Qbs are.

 

[cstu]

how about deshaun foster

every year shows flashes of brilliance.

played awesome in the playoffs this year, also played great in the playoffs in 03.

but his broken ankle vs chicago just proves once again that he is just too fragile and will never hold up for a whole season

i can't wait until training camp when all the talk will be about deshaun is fully recovered, he is even faster stronger than before the broken ankle, this will finally be the year he breaks through blah blah blah.

this is a guy that you will NEVER be able to depend on for a full season of fantasy production

Fair points, but I doubt anyone will be hitching their team's wagon to this guy. If he's a bust, it will likely be palatable considering where he'll probably be drafted.

He'll most likely turn out to be a steal in most leagues since very few people are going to risk a top pick on him and his injury history. If anyone buys into the hype next year I'll be

 

[Crazy8s]

L. Jordan

R. Johnson

Holt

Wayne

WOW....You guys just named my keepers.

Out of all of them,I see only Jordan can have a some what bust of a year.

Rudi and Holt, not even close to a bust

Wayne....not a stud enough to be a bust.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I say Steve Smith...Blew up HUGE this year and may still have a "good" year in 2006 but for those who draft him very early I think they'll be pissed that he dips in production and will be considered a BUST.

I agree. I think teams will start figuring out how to take him out of games, and the Panthers don't have another receiving threat to keep opponents honest.

They don't target anyone else.

And they haven't needed to. -------------------------

Steve Smith has done this all year. When will teams start to 'figure out how'?? If anything, depending on whether or not you think Drew Carter is the answer at #2 (which I think he could be), this offseason just gives them the ability to look at #2 WR options via the draft/FA.

 

[Bears_Man2]

S.Moss is a leading candidate of mine, but will have to wait to see who's starting in Washington.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

QB: K. Warner, I really hope not as I have a soft spot for this guy. When he plays he is great but I don't see him lasting long behind that O-line, even if it is upgraded. Being the starting QB in Arizona with guys like Boldin and Fitz everyone will have their tounges hanging out and expect bigger things then Warner will be able to produce. Arizona has to find a running game sooner or later.RB: W. Dunn. This guy is always in the value pick section but could be a dissapointment next season. People like to wait on him to fall as their RB2 and may draft this way hoping he will be a viable RB2. I don't think he will be a complete bust but in no way does he put up close to 1600 yards of combined offense next season and may finally not be a good pick as an RB 2 next year. 31 years of age and coming off of his best season as a pro usually means a declilne.WR: J. Galloway, this guy puts up one 1000 yard season in the last 8 years and will go way to high in redrafts next year. He had a great year but in no way does he come close to duplicating that next season. He will struggle to be a top 20 fantasy WR next season. TE: A. Crumpler. He will not be a complete bust but will be drafted before guys like Witten, Cooley, McMichael etc that will all finish ahead of him. Vick will start throwing more to WR's and take Crumpler's looks away.

 

[Blackjacks]

Year Top Rusher Yards Yards

Next Year %

Change

2004 Curtis Martin 1,697 735 -57%

2003 Jamal Lewis 2,066 1,006 -52%

2002 Ricky Williams 1,853 1,372 -26%

2001 Priest Holmes 1,555 1,615 +4%

2000 Edgerrin James 1,709 662 -62%

1999 Egerrin James 1,553 1,709 +9%

1998 Terrell Davis 2,008 211 -90%

1997 Barry Sanders 2,053 1,491 -28%

1996 Barry Sanders 1,553 2,053 +24%

1995 Emmitt Smith 1,773 1,204 -32%

I know that Terrell Davis and Edgerrin James' numbers both dropped due to injury. Are any of the others dropoffs due to injury? It would be interesting to see what the average dropoff is on players that did not suffer an injury the following year. All I can take from your info is that if SA gets hurt his numbers will drop. Not exactly a newsflash.

I guess I'm counting on this. You can never predict an injury but if alot of rb's get hurt after a season of alot of wear and tear...well atleast it's a theory. Plus with the perhaps loss of Hutchinson and the big contract.....well again I'll stay away. I also agree with Tiki.

 

[jurb26]

RB: W. Dunn. This guy is always in the value pick section but could be a dissapointment next season. People like to wait on him to fall as their RB2 and may draft this way hoping he will be a viable RB2. I don't think he will be a complete bust but in no way does he put up close to 1600 yards of combined offense next season and may finally not be a good pick as an RB 2 next year. 31 years of age and coming off of his best season as a pro usually means a declilne.

TE: A. Crumpler. He will not be a complete bust but will be drafted before guys like Witten, Cooley, McMichael etc that will all finish ahead of him. Vick will start throwing more to WR's and take Crumpler's looks away.

So... not a fan of the Atl O next year.

 

[Purpulhippo999]

bust: Ronnie Brownsleeper: Ricky Williams'nuff said