2006 Chicago Bears Team Defense (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

The Bears defense currently has an ADP of DEF1, going on average as the #91 pick overall.

Chicago allowed only 202 points last season, which got me wondering how defenses have done the year after they allowed 14 or fewer points per game (224 points over a full season).

I found 17 other teams in the past 20 years where that was the case. And the huge majority of the time those teams did not fare very well in the following year.

The 17 teams averaged 204.6 points allowed in YEAR X but a somewhat alarming 308.2 points allowed in YEAR X + 1. Of the 17 teams, 10 of them allowed 100+ more the following seson. Only the 1992 Saints did better the year after allowed fewer than 240 points.

By comparison, the Cowboys allowed 308 points last year and ranked 12th in points allowed.

Is there a way to explain this away or are the odds heavily stacked against Chicago's defense coming close to the performance level of a year ago?

2002 TB 196 264

2001 PHI 208 241

2001 CHI 203 379

2001 PIT 212 345

2000 TEN 191 388

2000 BAL 165 265

1999 JAX 217 327

1996 GB 210 282

1996 CAR 218 314

1994 CLE 204 356

1993 NYG 205 305

1992 NO 202 343

1991 WAS 224 255

1991 NO 211 202

1990 NYG 211 297

1988 CHI 215 377

1986 CHI 187 300 (adjusted for 16 games)

I wasn't going to take the Bears defense as the #91 pick overall in the first place, but this shows some scary past results for those that are considering it.

 

[imeimex]

I would agree that there is seems to be a lot of turnover in defenses each year. Than again, I am usually the guy who is the last to take a defense. I think a lot of the turnover results from harder schedules the next year. Typically the team with the top defense will end up winning or near the top of their division, and the result will be playing against some better teams the next year. As you know the Bears used nearly all of their draft picks on defense, and return everyone from last year. I do not see them dropping out of the top 5 defenses this year, as they are a big play defense and have added Hester/Manning/Currie to their special teams which should result in some return touchdowns. Usually there are a couple of owners that pick a defense way before I would even think about taking one, so there is no way that the Bears will be on my team, I do not see their talent level/production dropping off much but it is a question of whether they will outperform their ADP, which will obviously be hard to do.

 

[BoulderBob]

Chicago Bears

11-5-0, 1st NFC North

Pre-Season

HoF -- -- -- -- --

1 Fri, Aug 11 at San Francisco 10:00 pm Buy Tickets --

2 Fri, Aug 18 San Diego 8:00 pm Buy Tickets --

3 Fri, Aug 25 Arizona 8:00 pm Buy Tickets --

4 Thu, Aug 31 at Cleveland 8:00 pm Buy Tickets --

Regular Season

Week Date Opponent Time/Result Buy Tickets TV

1 Sun, Sep 10 at Green Bay 4:15 pm Buy Tickets FOX

2 Sun, Sep 17 Detroit 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

3 Sun, Sep 24 at Minnesota 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

4 Sun, Oct 1 Seattle 8:15 pm Buy Tickets NBC

5 Sun, Oct 8 Buffalo 1:00 pm Buy Tickets CBS

6 Mon, Oct 16 at Arizona 8:30 pm Buy Tickets ESP

7 -- bye -- -- --

8 Sun, Oct 29 San Francisco 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

9 Sun, Nov 5 Miami 1:00 pm Buy Tickets CBS

10 Sun, Nov 12 at NY Giants 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

11 Sun, Nov 19 at NY Jets 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

12 Sun, Nov 26 at New England 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

13 Sun, Dec 3 Minnesota 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

14 Mon, Dec 11 at St. Louis 8:30 pm Buy Tickets ESP

15 Sun, Dec 17 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Detroit 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

17 Sun, Dec 31 Green Bay 1:00 pm Buy Tickets FOX

With that schedule, #91 is a bargain. The Bears return every starter, and added much needed speed to the secondary. Their defensive line also added a potential gem in Dusty Dvorcek. Urlacher is at his peak, and I just don't see him letting the defense slip this season. Once the big money comes in from other teams looking to raid the Bears talent, the D will slip. But this unit has one more season in the sun, so to speak.

 

[David Yudkin]

With that schedule, #91 is a bargain. The Bears return every starter, and added much needed speed to the secondary. Their defensive line also added a potential gem in Dusty Dvorcek. Urlacher is in the prime of his career, and I just don't see him letting the defense slip this season.

This is a bit why I was inquiring. Many times, everything that went right one year does not happen again the next year. Bad luck, bad calls, tipped balls, injuries, weather, a player falling here and there for an easy pick for a TD, etc. may all have aligned one year but not in the next.Look at the 2005 Bills vs. the 2004 Bills. People thought they were going to be phenomenal after the way they played in 2004. Obviously that didn't happen.If we were discussing the other 17 teams in between years, I suspect we would get the same feedback that there would be no way that they would do much worse. But they did.

 

[John Mamula]

People will take the Bears too early like they do with most defenses.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How did the best 17 defenses do that allowed 225 or more points in Year N do in Year N + 1?

 

[David Yudkin]

How did the best 17 defenses do that allowed 225 or more points in Year N do in Year N + 1?

I'm not sure what you are asking. Are you curious as to how the next group of 17 did the next year (say 225-240 total points or whatever it turns out to be)?

 

[Chase Stuart]

How did the best 17 defenses do that allowed 225 or more points in Year N do in Year N + 1?

I'm not sure what you are asking. Are you curious as to how the next group of 17 did the next year (say 225-240 total points or whatever it turns out to be)?

Exactly.