What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

2006 NFL Mock w/ commentary - Fire away! :) (1 Viewer)

Red Herring

Footballguy
This is my first of the season, and does NOT take into account trades I think will happen, only what I think would go down if the draft happens tomorrow. Comments are welcome, though please back them up with something (stats, opinions, your sister's # and measurements, anything other than "cause I said so")

1. HOU: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (Virginia) – Reggie Bush will probably still end up being the #1 overall pick, but not to the Texans as they should be looking to trade down. Domanick Davis is still under contract and an above average NFL RB in his own right, and they will be looking to protect the investment they made in David Carr this off-season. Brick will make their entire offense better, Carr and Davis included. His presence should improve Carr by about 400yds/8td next year, Davis by 200/4 rushing and 150/1 receiving, and Andre Johnson should get a 300/3 bump. Assuming the Texans work on the rest of the O-line as well, dynasty owners can expect 3300/28/15 from Carr, 1200/8 and 350/4 from Davis, and 1300/8 from Johnson in years to come. Combine note: He's apparently added 14 lbs (up to 312) and had the 3rd longest arms (35 1/2" - thx cstu)

2. NO: Vince Young, QB (Texas) – Either Young or Matt Leinert could go here, but Young’s skill set better matches the departing Aaron Brooks. Young will also be a good drawing card for a recovering New Orleans franchise, especially among the new fans NO developed playing in Texas last year. His re-draft value will be minimal, as he should sit behind a veteran for at least a year, but if he gets thrown into the fire, expect no more than 2000/15/20 passing and 400/3 rushing his first year. Dynasty projections are much tougher, as he is a prospect that will need some development. His accuracy, mobility, and live arm give him 3200/25/10 with 600/5 potential, but his need for NFL coaching, Deuce McAllister’s developing injury problem, and Joe Horn’s age could land him in 2200/18/15 with 400/2 territory. I expect the former, but am wary of those factors dragging him down.

3. TEN: Matt Lienert, QB (USC) – Don’t be surprised to see the Titans make a small move up to ensure Lienert. Much has been made of Steve McNair’s mentoring of Young, but Lienert already knows Norm Chow’s offense and has run it at a high level in arguably the best college program of the last 10 years. With such a short learning curve, Lienert will probably sit behind McNair for just a year, if injuries don’t put him on the field sooner. By far the most NFL ready QB in this draft, he will be worth a late-round flyer to back up McNair in re-draft leagues. If he is a starter from day one, expect no more than 2400/22/16. He is my Silver dynasty pick on the offensive side, as Chow’s system sets him up for great fantasy stats: expect 3200/28/14 consistently from year two on. WRs Drew Bennet and Tyrone Calico take a hit early on, but watch for a bump in TEs Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe’s stats to the tune of 350/3 each.

4. NYJ: Reggie Bush, RB (USC) – I fully expect someone to trade up for Bush, and the Jets are as likely a candidate as any, perhaps packaging the 1.04 pick with an unhappy John Abraham and a lower pick (3.04?) for the 1.01 pick from the Texans. While his size and the fact he split carries and never carried a full load are concerns, Bush is still a highlight reel in the making. I look for him to play back-up to Curtis Martin in his final season, though he will see some time at WR, giving him a 500/3 300/2 redraft outlook. The obvious pick for the Gold dynasty tag, his potential is incredible. With a new coaching staff, it remains to be seen how he will be utilized, but I expect to see 2000/22 all-purpose yards/TD within 3 years.

5. GB: A.J. Hawk, OLB (OSU) – Projected as the first linebacker taken in the 2005 draft, his stock lost nothing in his senior year. He is intense, explosive, and his instincts make up for a slight size disadvantage. Those in IDP redraft leagues can expect 85 tackles/4 sacks/3 interceptions right off the bat, which should improve the GB D/ST as a whole by about 2-3 points per game (ppg) in almost any scoring system. My IDP dynasty Gold pick, Hawk will be a fantasy monster on the weak side of Nick Barnett. I look for 110/7/5 with a defensive TD, with potential for even more as GB improves that side of the ball.

6. OAK: Chad Greenway, OLB (Iowa) – Mario Williams will be tempting here, as will Jay Cutler for the passing obsessed Al Davis, but Greenway is too good a player at too big a need position for OAK. IDP redrafters can expect 75/3/2 his first season, giving the OAK D/ST a 2 ppg bump as a whole. He will easily be a 100/4/4 WLB in years to come, and his tremendous upside gives him 120/10/7 potential, making him our Bronze dynasty prospect.

7. SF: Mario Williams, DE (NCST) – The 49ers will be thrilled to grab Williams at this pick. While he has yet to reach his full potential, he is widely considered the best DE prospect since Julius Peppers. His IDP redraft value is minimal, probably 60/6, though he may be worth a late season pickup as he adjusts to the NFL; the SF D/ST will still be outside the top 20. Dynasty owners can be moderately optimistic at the trend the D/ST is taking, with Williams providing a 2-3 ppg increase in the future. As for IDP, he barely misses the Bronze, as he will easily be a 75/12 DE for years to come.

8. BUF: Haloti Ngata, DT (Oregon) – The Bills need OL help and should trade down to get it, but they also need to fill the hole left when Pat Williams departed prior to the 2005 season, and Ngata certainly fits the bill. He will be able to start immediately, though his redraft value in an IDP league will be minimal, probably getting you 55/3 in year 1. He will improve an already great D/ST, however, pushing what should be a top 5 unit even higher, to the tune of 2-3 ppg. If every dynasty league required DT, Ngata would have been my Gold pick, bar none. If your league does, sell your house and kids to grab him. Stats in the 75/8 range will be the norm, and his tremendous potential allows for even more. He also has a knack for blocking kicks, improving his and the Bills D/ST value even further if your league rewards blocks. DTs like Haloti come along once in a decade, don’t miss the boat!

9. DET: Winston Justice, OT (USC) – While no one would be surprised to see Matt Millen pick OSU WR Santonio Holmes here, cooler heads should prevail and address the Lions glaring need at OT. Off-field issues which resulted in him being suspended for the entire 2004 season cost him a few draft spots, but he seems to have answered those by going back to school and protecting Matt Lienart’s blindside in 2005. His presence combined with new OC Mike Martz’s Gun ‘n Gun offense should lead to significant boosts in the stat lines of Joey Harrington (3200/30/24), and Kevin Jones (900/8 600/5), with Roy Williams (1200/10) filling in the “Torry Holt” role.

10. ARI: DeAngelo Williams, RB (Memphis) – Another team that will be thrilled on draft day, the Cardinals will happily slide Williams into the spot JJ Arrington should have filled last year. Williams will be the best back Denny Green has coached since Robert Smith retired, despite his average blocking skills. Expect to see 1100/6 200/2 next season; redraft owners may look to trade him about 7-8 games in before he hits the rookie “wall.” Dynasty owners can expect 1500/15 with 300/2 in coming years, as he takes a little pressure off of premier WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. One word of caution: Williams has an excessive amount of carries for a RB coming out of college.

11. STL: Michael Huff. S (Texas) – A safety with great instincts, 4.45 speed, and a nose for the ball, Huff could replace UFA SS Adam Archuleta, slide over to FS if Archuleta re-signs, or even move to CB as well. The Rams D/ST should see an immediate 2 ppg improvement with a 75/6 and a TD projection at SS for 2006. Dynasty owners should watch Huff closely; if he does indeed take over at SS, his knack for running interceptions back for touchdowns will mean a 3-4 ppg improvement for the Rams D/ST. That same ability edges him ahead of Greenway for my Silver IDP spot, as I see him with an annual 85/4/5/2TD performance. A move to CB will hurt his value somewhat, but his good tackling and ball-hawking skills should still translate to 65/1/6/2TD, great if you are in a CB-mandatory league.

12. CLE: Jonathan Scott, OT (Texas) – The first reach of the draft, the Browns could easily go DE here, but their OL is the most glaring need and Scott should improve the unit. His athleticism, quick feet, and intangibles outweigh questions about his consistency and technique. He has room to grow (6’7” 310lbs) and should be a top LT for years to come. QB Charlie Frye (2500/22/18), RB Reuben Droughns (1400/6 200/1), and WR Braylon Edwards (1100/8) all get upgrades for 2006. Look for Scott to anchor an offensive line that will facilitate good fantasy stats from Frye (3200/28/18), Droughns (1500/8 200/1), and Edwards (1500/8) for their Dynasty owners in future seasons.

13. BAL: LenDale White, RB (USC) – With both Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor testing the free agent waters this off-season, White will provide both insurance and leverage for their negotiations. Lewis is almost certainly gone, and I look for Taylor to be retained, with White taking over Lewis’ hammer role. White will most likely see more carries as the season wears on, with Taylor showing the world the reasons the Ravens still aren’t sold on his ability to be more than a 3rd down RB. I expect White to give 500/7 100/0 to redraft owners in 2006. This is a great place for him to land from a dynasty perspective, as I am projecting him for 1200/12 in 2007, with an average of 1500/18 after that.

14. PHI: Tamba Hali, DE (Penn St) – Another pick very likely to be traded, but if the Eagles still pick here, Hali will be their guy opposite Jevon Kearse. Trent Cole showed some promise at the spot, but will be better off at OLB. Hali also has experience at DT and even dropping into coverage, valuable skills with the multitude of blitz packages Philly runs. His redraft outlook is average, with most of his value due to the talent around him, probably in the 55/7 range, though he won’t have much of an impact on the overall D/ST scoring in 2006. In the Eagles system, he should produce 70/10 in subsequent seasons for Dynasty owners, with the D/ST staying a top 5-caliber unit.

15. ATL: Joseph Addai, RB (LSU) – Without any glaring needs (besides better instincts for Michel Vick), the Falcons take Addai here to replace UFA T.J. Duckett. While there are questions about his durability, he best complements the skills of Warrick Dunn, and has enough potential to take over the starting role when Dunn retires. Addai will have about the same value in redraft leagues in 2006 that Duckett did in 2005, namely Dunn insurance and a spot starter, with about 500/8 expected on the stat sheet. In Dynasty terms, owners will probably need to wait until at least the 2008 season to see dividends, but should he grab the starting role, expect to see 1300/14 on the ground with 350/4 receiving.

16. MIA: Jimmy Williams, CB (VT) – If the Dolphins don’t address their need at QB with a veteran free agent as expected, you may see them grab Jay Cutler here instead. Otherwise, Williams is the choice here. He has played more safety than corner, but has showed enough at CB for any team that drafts him to try him there. In Miami he should take over at SS, as neither Travares Tillman nor Tebucky Jones are the answer there. He could move to CB if Sam Madison walks, but Miami is more likely to sign a veteran to play the position. At either position, he should provide decent IDP stats in 2006, around 80/2/4. For dynasty leaguers, his value will take a dip from 2007 on if he stays at CB, as he will lose the “untested rookie” tackles, making him a decent option in CB-mandatory leagues with 60/0/4. If he does stay at SS, he becomes a top 20 prospect, with an annual projection of about 80/4. There will be no change for the D/ST, 2006 or beyond.

17. MIN: Jay Cutler, QB (Vanderbilt) – A top candidate to be traded up for, he slides no further than this spot. Vikings brass has been shopping Daunte Culpepper, and the Vikes would be able to groom Cutler under Brad Johnson for a couple years. While his gunslinging mentality and bad decision making are liabilities, these can be coached and should improve watching a patient QB like Johnson. Cutler’s redraft value will be essentially nil, as he should carry a clipboard his first years in the league. Dynasty owners with bench space to warm should be pleasantly surprised to find a poor man’s Brett Favre sitting there in 2008. If given the reigns in 2007, expect no more than 2400/22/25, but 2008 should bring about 3200/28/22 seasons, fantastic in leagues without INT penalties.

18. DAL: DeMeco Ryans, OLB (Alabama) – Another team without major deficiencies, Dallas will be a great fit for Ryans. While he doesn’t possess great speed (4.70), he plays faster than he times, and any physical drawbacks are greatly outweighed by his football knowledge and instincts. He can easily move to inside linebacker with very little coaching if need be, and his great attitude and teamwork will endear him to Parcells. His stats for 2006 will probably hover around 75/3/2 no matter which position he plays and he won’t have much of an impact on the Cowboys D/ST bottomline. Even if he ends up at SLB (the fantasy graveyard for linebackers), he should still produce excellent tackle numbers (90/3/1) due to his great technique and knack for being around the ball. WLB or MLB would push him into the top 20 with a stat line in the 115/5/3 range. That would produce a minimal increase for the Dallas D/ST of perhaps 1 ppg, but nothing more

19. SD: Santonio Holmes, WR (OSU) – Keenan McCardell isn’t getting any younger, and this should be a no-brainer for the Chargers. Holmes is the best WR in the draft and will provide an excellent weapon to complement Tomlinson and Gates as the Phillip Rivers era begins. His value in 2006 will depend on how he gels with Rivers, but it is reasonable to expect 800/5 in his first season. Having to compete with Gates and Tomlinson for catches will limit his value, but he can still be expected to put up 1200/8 in any given season, putting him in top 20 company on the dynasty side.

20. KC: Broderick Bunkley, DT (FSU) – The Chiefs need a defensive tackle badly and barring a trade up for Ngata, they will settle for Bunkley here. While he will never be a statistical force, he will plug the middle and get a good push into the backfield, making life easier on the KC linebacking corps. While having no individual value in 2006, IDP league owners can bump Kawika Mitchell, Derrick O. Johnson, and even Jared Allen up about 5 spots on their cheatsheets. Dynasty prospects are about the same, except in leagues that require the DT position, where owners can expect a solid, but unspectacular 50/3. In both redraft and dynasty league, the Chiefs D/ST gets perhaps a 1-2 ppg boost from his presence inside, but nothing that will boost them beyond their top 15 status.

21. NE: Bobby Carpenter, OLB (OSU) – With their youngest starting linebacker (Roosevelt Colvin) turning 29 at the start of the season, the Pats get younger at the key position in Belichick’s defensive scheme. Bobby’s father Rob also played for the Giants during Belichick’s years in NY. Bobby has been a great SLB, with the versatility to move inside and play the pass-rushing role in the Patriot’s 3-4 defense. His 2006 redraft value will be minimal, but his dynasty IDP value should be in line with the LB he replaces. Best case scenario: the “Tedy Bruschi” spot with 85/3/3, Worst case scenario: the “Willie McGinnest” role with 55/8/1. In any event, he will only continue to ensure the same quality we have seen from the Patriots D/ST.

22. DEN (from WAS): Vernon Davis, TE (Maryland) – Mike Shanahan remembers what a luxury Shannon Sharpe was, and he finally has a replacement. Davis is a fantastic receiver with great speed (4.49) for a tight end. He needs some improvement in his blocking, but the Bronco’s zone blocking scheme isn’t too hard too pick up. Despite any rookie growing pains, he should produce numbers worthy of a backup fantasy TE, in the 700/6 range for the 2006 campaign. Dynasty owners should have some idea who he is already, as any TE with his receiving skills is worth his weight in gold. His final grades should be comparable to those of Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow Jr.; look for 1100/8 as a minimum from 2007 forward.

23. TB: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE (BC) – Simeon Rice is getting older (32) and Greg Spires is only 2 years younger. OL is also a need, but Kiwanuka has too much upside to be ignored this late in the 1st round. He has plenty of room to grow (6’7” 261 lbs.) and possesses outstanding pass rushing ability, intangibles, and athleticism, drawing comparisons to Rice coming out of college. Initial IDP numbers will be modest, but draftable; 50/7 is quite reasonable for 2006, but will not improve the D/ST status. Beyond next year, the D/ST gains a good boost from both Rice and Kiwanuka on opposite side of the line (ala Strahan and Umenyiora for the Giants) to the tune of 3 ppg, putting them in the top 5 as long as Rice is a Buccaneer. In IDP terms, look for 45/12 from Mathias from year to year. One word of caution: Kiwanuka has the biggest potential to be a bust as well; his weight not getting to around 280 may be the first tip you get.

24. CIN: Leonard Pope, TE (Georgia) – The Bengals have few needs on offense, but TE is one that sticks out. Pope fills that need well, giving Carson Palmer a big (6’7” 250 lbs.) target to complement his great wide receivers. He doesn’t have elite speed (4.64), but that isn’t necessary with Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Chris Henry at WR. His redraft potential is limited to 700/6 at the most in 2006, but his dynasty prospects in Cincy are another matter. In the Bengals high-powered offense, expect 1000/12 as his huge frame will vulture endzone targets from the WR corps, especially Chad Johnson.

25. NYG: Nick Mangold, C (OSU) –Eli Manning needs a center to develop with and Shaun O’Hara is not the answer. The Giants have invested too much in Manning to have a revolving door at C, thus enters Mangold. The best center in the draft, Nick will need to bulk up a bit (6’4” 290 lbs.), but has the frame to do so. His mean streak and durability just add to his appeal here. In fantasy terms, Manning’s yardage numbers will remain largely the same in 2006, but his TD/INT ratio should improve by +/- 5 for 3700/29/12. Those numbers should remain the same in dynasty terms as well. Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, and the rest of the skill position players will give you the same stats, with the extra touchdowns going to Barber and Jeremy Shockey.

26. CHI: Marcedes Lewis, TE (UCLA) – A bit more raw than Davis or Pope, Lewis is nonetheless a great TE prospect in his own right. He is a better blocker than some give him credit for, and with 15 lbs. added to his 6’6” 256 lb. frame he will fit into the Bears smashmouth style. He doesn’t possess great speed (4.75), but makes up for it with superb hands. He will be a good outlet for Rex Grossman, with 500/5 being a reasonable expectation in his rookie year. He will be a 2nd tier TE in a Bear uniform, putting up 800/8 for dynasty owners.

27. CAR: Chad Jackson, WR (UF) – With the Panthers already looking to free agency for a running back, they look to the draft for a good complement to Steve Smith and find Jackson. His ability to be a downfield threat is a question mark, but it won’t be necessary opposite Smith. Jackson has good route running skills and reliable hands to go with 4.43 speed and explosive acceleration. Being opposite Smith will give him an opportunity to make an immediate mark in single coverage, with 1000/6 being quite reasonable for 2006. Dynasty owners may be able to sneak him onto their rosters for cheap before the 2006 season due to the (deserved) anti-Gator WR bias. Smart owners will keep in mind that while Chad’s yards-per-catch (YPC) dropped from 22.3 in ’04 to 10.3 in ’05, he caught 88 balls in Urban Meyer’s offense compared to 29 in the previous season. Expect a solid 1200/9 from him starting in 2007.

28. JAX: Antonio Cromartie, CB (FSU) – The Jaguars can afford to pick the best available athlete here, and Cromartie is the best in the draft, bar none. He has great size for a corner (6’3” 210 lbs.), clocked 4.37 in the 40-yard dash, and is a pure cover corner with a knack for returning interceptions (and kicks) for touchdowns. His big drawback is the ACL he tore in July 2005, causing him to miss his entire junior season. Should he be declared medically sound and perform well at the combine, his stock will soar. He will have little IDP value beyond his rookie campaign, in which you can expect 70/0/5. His value to the Jacksonville D/ST unit will come as much from his kick returning ability as his defensive skills; expect a 2 ppg increase in 2006. Expect a healthy Cromartie to hold the same dynasty value as Champ Bailey, with his main appeal being in his ability to grab errant passes and return them for a TD. The outlook for the entire D/ST is a 3 ppg increase as long as he is the KR/PR.

29. DEN: Greg Eslinger, C (Minnesota) – As Tom Nalen enters his 12th NFL season, the Broncos need to inject youth into their OL. Eslinger (6’3” 285lbs.) perfectly fits the Denver zone blocking system, which emphasizes skill, athleticism, and intelligence over bulk. There is no change for any skill position player, as his intelligence and work ethic allow him to slide seamlessly into any position needed in the Bronco’s O-line machine which is already among the NFL’s top units.

30. IND: Laurence Maroney, RB (Minnesota) – Just as in college, Eslinger precedes Maroney. A prolific college back, there are questions regarding his decidedly un-physical running style, but that won’t matter to the Colts, who are unlikely to resign Edgerrin James. His excellent patience, instincts, and vision combined with an extra gear make him a threat to take it to the house on any given play. His hands will be the biggest question the Colts need answered, as he wasn’t thrown to much in college. In any case, he would start from day one, giving him a rosy 1200/10 300/5 outlook for 2006. Being a Colt will also make or break him from a dynasty perspective, as he will probably only fit ¼ of NFL teams, most of which already have at least a solid RB. Being a Colt, however, will be a perfect fit, and Maroney owners can look for 1400/14 500/6 until the Colts let him walk too.

31. SEA: Tye Hill, CB (Clemson) – No team will be more thrilled to see a player than Seattle will be to see Hill here. Andre Dyson did nothing to secure himself a job on the Super Bowl losers when he wasn’t injured. His speed (4.40 even) makes him one of the fastest players in the draft and he still has plenty of upside, having split all but his senior season between two sports (track). His great leaping ability and fluid hip movement combined with his innate ability to play the ball in the air will only make the Seahawks drool. The factors that allow him to slip this far, namely his size (5’10” 180lbs.) and his stone hands will not matter to the ‘Hawks who will ask him to play in the 2nd CB role and will only show against teams with two top quality wideouts. Those problems will not endear him to IDP owners, dynasty or otherwise, as his tackle and interception numbers will suffer. On the flip side, playing opposite Marcus Trufant will severely limit most teams’ options causing big plays from teammates and a general 2 ppg increase, both in 2006 and beyond.

32. PIT: Ashton Youboty, CB (OSU) – The next in a line of excellent cornerbacks from Ohio State (Winfield, Springs, Clement, Gamble), he will make a nice replacement should Ike Taylor depart via free agency. He will need coaching and development, but Bill Cowher will certainly give that. He is above average in all physical areas, as well as being a physical player and solid tackler, both requirements to play in the black and gold. He won’t make an impact for 2006 in almost any case, but his smarts and physical ability should translate into an above average IDP prospect, especially in leagues that require you to start 1-2 CBs. Look for him to post similar stats to Taylor, in the 75/0/2 range, starting in 2007, which will mean neither an increase nor decrease the value of a top 5 unit already.

There you have it, the draft if it happened tomorrow. Projections, are of course, just that, and do not account for players being inexplicably replaced with slower, dumber, or more injury prone versions. I will, however, attempt to take some form of credit if they outdo my predictions. :D Time to Mock the Mock!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not bad - only glaring issue is Addai going to Atlanta - no way do they grab him - let alone a back IMHO
I think they grab Addai as Dunn insurance somewhere, though he will probably make it to the 2nd round. This was my "head-scratcher" pick, as I don't think ATL will see a good enough player on the board (that they could use) and will reach. ATL is one of my top 3 to trade out of their spot, too. IMO, they SHOULD take a LB (I don't think Edge will pan out, and Ryans would be good at that pick) but won't because of what they just put into Hartwell.
 
You convinced me on the Pats pick...

They have a couple of obvious holes (RB, LB) but BB seems to fool us every year

But Carpenter is a perfect fit.

As for the rest of the picks and analysis...

:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You have the right position for the Cowboys, linebacker. Wrong guy. Demeco Ryans is only about 225 pounds. He's smaller than Roy Williams. Not going to play in a 3-4, at least in Dallas. Parcells likes big linebackers. Bobby Carpenter is your guy.

 
You have the right position for the Cowboys, linebacker. Wrong guy. Demeco Ryans is only about 225 pounds. He's smaller than Roy Williams. Not going to play in a 3-4, at least in Dallas. Parcells likes big linebackers. Bobby Carpenter is your guy.
It was a toss up for me between the 2, but I decided it would be easier for Ryans to get a bit bigger than for Carpenter to become a better tackler. Either should be able to be improved, though I'm inclined to think Parcells would rather tell the rookie to hit the weights than spend time working on is technique (ryans is 6'2", 232 to Carpenter's 6'3" 255, just for the stat of it)
 
Nice work.

My only critique is that all of your "numbers" are ceiling numbers; none of your guys are busts, only All-Pros in their 2nd year.

I think you need to use more historical data in computing your rookie stats.

Outside of the inflated stats, excellent job.

 
Nice work. 

My only critique is that all of your "numbers" are ceiling numbers; none of your guys are busts, only All-Pros in their 2nd year.

I think you need to use more historical data in computing your rookie stats.

Outside of the inflated stats, excellent job.
yeah, I was definitely assuming no busts, but I gave Cutler till 2008 for his MVP :D Tye Hill will never be an all-pro, neither will Marcedes, Bunkley or Enslinger. I really do see this as quite a deep draft, Lots of juniors that could have been 1st rounders last year, and a few seniors that could have been top picks last year have really given this class about 3x the star potential of last year's 1st round (IMHO, of course ;) )

edit: I gotta lose this sig, its just too long ... anyone up for a sig bet? :hey:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not a bad list. I agree with the inflated stats.

I see the top 3 going as expected. Bush-Leinart-Young & don't see Addai going in the 1st. Broncos should be thrilled to get Davis at #22 (I don't see him lasting past 15 (whether it's STL taking him or someone -- hopefully the Bears! -- trading up for him).

 
Convincing argument for Kiwanuka.. but I'm still spearheading the Sinorice Moss to Tampa bandwagon (hopefully I am not also the caboose still)

With their recent draft history, Kiwi would be of perfect mold for the Bucs. They seem to hold a lot more stock in classy players rather than pure talent... and it has definitely looked to already be paying off. None of these young guys have caused any problems, and have all looked very promising.

I wouldn't argue with Kiwanuka or Moss. Or Ryans. Outside of those three, though... I don't see an ideal Buc pick.

 
Convincing argument for Kiwanuka.. but I'm still spearheading the Sinorice Moss to Tampa bandwagon (hopefully I am not also the caboose still)

With their recent draft history, Kiwi would be of perfect mold for the Bucs. They seem to hold a lot more stock in classy players rather than pure talent... and it has definitely looked to already be paying off. None of these young guys have caused any problems, and have all looked very promising.

I wouldn't argue with Kiwanuka or Moss. Or Ryans. Outside of those three, though... I don't see an ideal Buc pick.
very true, though one of them should be there when they pick. Or one of those infamous slippers lands in their lap. Greenway, for instance, if his combine makes him slip
 
The numbers are tremendously inflated. You really need to temper them a bit. Not everyone drafted will be top 20, or in the RB's case top 5 in a couple of years.

TE # were also VERY high.

Good read, though.

 
TEs are being overblown by most. I'll lmao if 2 or more go in the first. TEs are a traditionally a dicey first round pick - for every Miller there's at least 1 or 2 Bechts or Stevens - and rarely a big enough part of the O to be worthy anyway. Addai was also a "wtfo" - but well done overall (I rarely pay attention to stats so couldn't speak to em). Your top picks esp. make more sense than most I'm seeing.

 
Good read, but I don't see Bush at 4, Greenway at 6, Addai at 15, Davis at 22, nor two centers in the first round (has that ever happened?)

A lot of good picks in there, though. :thumbup:

 
Good read, but I don't see Bush at 4, Greenway at 6, Addai at 15, Davis at 22, nor two centers in the first round (has that ever happened?)

A lot of good picks in there, though.  :thumbup:
apart from greenway (i'll stick by that one) I agree, but i think bush and davis get traded up for, and the falcons trade that pick. but since its too foggy to see who goes for whom yet, there they are :) thanks for all the comments so far guys. I'll have to see if I can work some busts into my next one to get those stats down! ;) I stand by this though: there will be more all-pro caliber players to come out of round 1, 2006 than in any draft in 20 years. guys like Justice and Lienart staying the extra year, the great crop of juniors, and so many good situations to get into (i.e. the Indy and ARI RB spots, the WLB spot next to Barnett in GB, the CAR WR2 spot). Would it be unprecedented for 20 out of the 32 to reach the pro-bowl? Because it will happen; there's my bold prediction :)

Big Red: my top picks making sense is what scares me most :ph34r: Can we ever trust, for example, Matt Millen to make sense? :loco:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nice read. Definately outside of the box thinking.

I dont like Dallas grabbing a linebacker though, unless of course we get Corey Chavous and Fabini. Then, fire away at LB.

I think there are some decent young WR prospects that Dallas could also look at in free agency so I am not really on board for a WR in the first round, especially in such a weak WR draft class.

 
The numbers are tremendously inflated. You really need to temper them a bit. Not everyone drafted will be top 20, or in the RB's case top 5 in a couple of years.

TE # were also VERY high.

Good read, though.
I agree, and think this is a classic example of the fantasy football bias in predicting the draft, where we tend to focus on key fantasy positions and overvalue them because of a subconscious (or conscious) want for more options.It's still a very good read though, at least I think.

 
Nice read. Definately outside of the box thinking.

I dont like Dallas grabbing a linebacker though, unless of course we get Corey Chavous and Fabini. Then, fire away at LB.

I think there are some decent young WR prospects that Dallas could also look at in free agency so I am not really on board for a WR in the first round, especially in such a weak WR draft class.
thanks TM. I do think DAL picks up a FA S, they really can't afford to have a rookie take the wrong angle after Roy wiffs on a big hit. I was thinking T for them here, but the only 2 worth it would be McNeil and Winston -- McNeil had a tendency to get lazy and lose concentration which would drive Parcells nuts along with his lack of mean streak, and Winston in the 1st round is reaching due to his injury, IMHO.
 
[i agree, and think this is a classic example of the fantasy football bias in predicting the draft, where we tend to focus on key fantasy positions and overvalue them because of a subconscious (or conscious) want for more options.

It's still a very good read though, at least I think.
For future consideration: which spots do you think I over-valued a fantasy type player over the team's need? Or was it just in reference to the projections?
 
Good read, but I don't see Bush at 4, Greenway at 6, Addai at 15, Davis at 22, nor two centers in the first round (has that ever happened?)

A lot of good picks in there, though.  :thumbup:
greenway (i'll stick by that one)
I love Greenway, but I can't see him going that high. He's no better than the 4th best defensive prospect in this draft (Hawk, Ngata, and Williams will go ahead of him if no one else) and he's going to be behind Bush, Leinart, Young, and Ferguson also - meaning I cannot see him coming off the board until pick 8. Most likely 9 to Detroit is as early as he goes, IMO.
 
This is my first of the season, and does NOT take into account trades I think will happen, only what I think would go down if the draft happens tomorrow. Comments are welcome, though please back them up with something (stats, opinions, your sister's # and measurements, anything other than "cause I said so")

1. HOU: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (Virginia) – Reggie Bush will probably still end up being the #1 overall pick, but not to the Texans as they should be looking to trade down. Domanick Davis is still under contract and an above average NFL RB in his own right, and they will be looking to protect the investment they made in David Carr this off-season. Brick will make their entire offense better, Carr and Davis included. His presence should improve Carr by about 400yds/8td next year, Davis by 200/4 rushing and 150/1 receiving, and Andre Johnson should get a 300/3 bump. Assuming the Texans work on the rest of the O-line as well, dynasty owners can expect 3300/28/15 from Carr, 1200/8 and 350/4 from Davis, and 1300/8 from Johnson in years to come. Combine note: He's apparently added 14 lbs (up to 312) and had the 3rd longest arms (35 1/2" - thx cstu)

2. NO: Vince Young, QB (Texas) – Either Young or Matt Leinert could go here, but Young’s skill set better matches the departing Aaron Brooks. Young will also be a good drawing card for a recovering New Orleans franchise, especially among the new fans NO developed playing in Texas last year. His re-draft value will be minimal, as he should sit behind a veteran for at least a year, but if he gets thrown into the fire, expect no more than 2000/15/20 passing and 400/3 rushing his first year. Dynasty projections are much tougher, as he is a prospect that will need some development. His accuracy, mobility, and live arm give him 3200/25/10 with 600/5 potential, but his need for NFL coaching, Deuce McAllister’s developing injury problem, and Joe Horn’s age could land him in 2200/18/15 with 400/2 territory. I expect the former, but am wary of those factors dragging him down.

3. TEN: Matt Lienert, QB (USC) – Don’t be surprised to see the Titans make a small move up to ensure Lienert. Much has been made of Steve McNair’s mentoring of Young, but Lienert already knows Norm Chow’s offense and has run it at a high level in arguably the best college program of the last 10 years. With such a short learning curve, Lienert will probably sit behind McNair for just a year, if injuries don’t put him on the field sooner. By far the most NFL ready QB in this draft, he will be worth a late-round flyer to back up McNair in re-draft leagues. If he is a starter from day one, expect no more than 2400/22/16. He is my Silver dynasty pick on the offensive side, as Chow’s system sets him up for great fantasy stats: expect 3200/28/14 consistently from year two on. WRs Drew Bennet and Tyrone Calico take a hit early on, but watch for a bump in TEs Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe’s stats to the tune of 350/3 each.

4. NYJ: Reggie Bush, RB (USC) – I fully expect someone to trade up for Bush, and the Jets are as likely a candidate as any, perhaps packaging the 1.04 pick with an unhappy John Abraham and a lower pick (3.04?) for the 1.01 pick from the Texans. While his size and the fact he split carries and never carried a full load are concerns, Bush is still a highlight reel in the making. I look for him to play back-up to Curtis Martin in his final season, though he will see some time at WR, giving him a 500/3 300/2 redraft outlook. The obvious pick for the Gold dynasty tag, his potential is incredible. With a new coaching staff, it remains to be seen how he will be utilized, but I expect to see 2000/22 all-purpose yards/TD within 3 years.

5. GB: A.J. Hawk, OLB (OSU) – Projected as the first linebacker taken in the 2005 draft, his stock lost nothing in his senior year. He is intense, explosive, and his instincts make up for a slight size disadvantage. Those in IDP redraft leagues can expect 85 tackles/4 sacks/3 interceptions right off the bat, which should improve the GB D/ST as a whole by about 2-3 points per game (ppg) in almost any scoring system. My IDP dynasty Gold pick, Hawk will be a fantasy monster on the weak side of Nick Barnett. I look for 110/7/5 with a defensive TD, with potential for even more as GB improves that side of the ball.

6. OAK: Chad Greenway, OLB (Iowa) – Mario Williams will be tempting here, as will Jay Cutler for the passing obsessed Al Davis, but Greenway is too good a player at too big a need position for OAK. IDP redrafters can expect 75/3/2 his first season, giving the OAK D/ST a 2 ppg bump as a whole. He will easily be a 100/4/4 WLB in years to come, and his tremendous upside gives him 120/10/7 potential, making him our Bronze dynasty prospect.

7. SF: Mario Williams, DE (NCST) – The 49ers will be thrilled to grab Williams at this pick. While he has yet to reach his full potential, he is widely considered the best DE prospect since Julius Peppers. His IDP redraft value is minimal, probably 60/6, though he may be worth a late season pickup as he adjusts to the NFL; the SF D/ST will still be outside the top 20. Dynasty owners can be moderately optimistic at the trend the D/ST is taking, with Williams providing a 2-3 ppg increase in the future. As for IDP, he barely misses the Bronze, as he will easily be a 75/12 DE for years to come.

8. BUF: Haloti Ngata, DT (Oregon) – The Bills need OL help and should trade down to get it, but they also need to fill the hole left when Pat Williams departed prior to the 2005 season, and Ngata certainly fits the bill. He will be able to start immediately, though his redraft value in an IDP league will be minimal, probably getting you 55/3 in year 1. He will improve an already great D/ST, however, pushing what should be a top 5 unit even higher, to the tune of 2-3 ppg. If every dynasty league required DT, Ngata would have been my Gold pick, bar none. If your league does, sell your house and kids to grab him. Stats in the 75/8 range will be the norm, and his tremendous potential allows for even more. He also has a knack for blocking kicks, improving his and the Bills D/ST value even further if your league rewards blocks. DTs like Haloti come along once in a decade, don’t miss the boat!

9. DET: Winston Justice, OT (USC) – While no one would be surprised to see Matt Millen pick OSU WR Santonio Holmes here, cooler heads should prevail and address the Lions glaring need at OT. Off-field issues which resulted in him being suspended for the entire 2004 season cost him a few draft spots, but he seems to have answered those by going back to school and protecting Matt Lienart’s blindside in 2005. His presence combined with new OC Mike Martz’s Gun ‘n Gun offense should lead to significant boosts in the stat lines of Joey Harrington (3200/30/24), and Kevin Jones (900/8 600/5), with Roy Williams (1200/10) filling in the “Torry Holt” role.

10. ARI: DeAngelo Williams, RB (Memphis) – Another team that will be thrilled on draft day, the Cardinals will happily slide Williams into the spot JJ Arrington should have filled last year. Williams will be the best back Denny Green has coached since Robert Smith retired, despite his average blocking skills. Expect to see 1100/6 200/2 next season; redraft owners may look to trade him about 7-8 games in before he hits the rookie “wall.” Dynasty owners can expect 1500/15 with 300/2 in coming years, as he takes a little pressure off of premier WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. One word of caution: Williams has an excessive amount of carries for a RB coming out of college.

11. STL: Michael Huff. S (Texas) – A safety with great instincts, 4.45 speed, and a nose for the ball, Huff could replace UFA SS Adam Archuleta, slide over to FS if Archuleta re-signs, or even move to CB as well. The Rams D/ST should see an immediate 2 ppg improvement with a 75/6 and a TD projection at SS for 2006. Dynasty owners should watch Huff closely; if he does indeed take over at SS, his knack for running interceptions back for touchdowns will mean a 3-4 ppg improvement for the Rams D/ST. That same ability edges him ahead of Greenway for my Silver IDP spot, as I see him with an annual 85/4/5/2TD performance. A move to CB will hurt his value somewhat, but his good tackling and ball-hawking skills should still translate to 65/1/6/2TD, great if you are in a CB-mandatory league.

12. CLE: Jonathan Scott, OT (Texas) – The first reach of the draft, the Browns could easily go DE here, but their OL is the most glaring need and Scott should improve the unit. His athleticism, quick feet, and intangibles outweigh questions about his consistency and technique. He has room to grow (6’7” 310lbs) and should be a top LT for years to come. QB Charlie Frye (2500/22/18), RB Reuben Droughns (1400/6 200/1), and WR Braylon Edwards (1100/8) all get upgrades for 2006. Look for Scott to anchor an offensive line that will facilitate good fantasy stats from Frye (3200/28/18), Droughns (1500/8 200/1), and Edwards (1500/8) for their Dynasty owners in future seasons.

13. BAL: LenDale White, RB (USC) – With both Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor testing the free agent waters this off-season, White will provide both insurance and leverage for their negotiations. Lewis is almost certainly gone, and I look for Taylor to be retained, with White taking over Lewis’ hammer role. White will most likely see more carries as the season wears on, with Taylor showing the world the reasons the Ravens still aren’t sold on his ability to be more than a 3rd down RB. I expect White to give 500/7 100/0 to redraft owners in 2006. This is a great place for him to land from a dynasty perspective, as I am projecting him for 1200/12 in 2007, with an average of 1500/18 after that.

14. PHI: Tamba Hali, DE (Penn St) – Another pick very likely to be traded, but if the Eagles still pick here, Hali will be their guy opposite Jevon Kearse. Trent Cole showed some promise at the spot, but will be better off at OLB. Hali also has experience at DT and even dropping into coverage, valuable skills with the multitude of blitz packages Philly runs. His redraft outlook is average, with most of his value due to the talent around him, probably in the 55/7 range, though he won’t have much of an impact on the overall D/ST scoring in 2006. In the Eagles system, he should produce 70/10 in subsequent seasons for Dynasty owners, with the D/ST staying a top 5-caliber unit.

15. ATL: Joseph Addai, RB (LSU) – Without any glaring needs (besides better instincts for Michel Vick), the Falcons take Addai here to replace UFA T.J. Duckett. While there are questions about his durability, he best complements the skills of Warrick Dunn, and has enough potential to take over the starting role when Dunn retires. Addai will have about the same value in redraft leagues in 2006 that Duckett did in 2005, namely Dunn insurance and a spot starter, with about 500/8 expected on the stat sheet. In Dynasty terms, owners will probably need to wait until at least the 2008 season to see dividends, but should he grab the starting role, expect to see 1300/14 on the ground with 350/4 receiving.

16. MIA: Jimmy Williams, CB (VT) – If the Dolphins don’t address their need at QB with a veteran free agent as expected, you may see them grab Jay Cutler here instead. Otherwise, Williams is the choice here. He has played more safety than corner, but has showed enough at CB for any team that drafts him to try him there. In Miami he should take over at SS, as neither Travares Tillman nor Tebucky Jones are the answer there. He could move to CB if Sam Madison walks, but Miami is more likely to sign a veteran to play the position. At either position, he should provide decent IDP stats in 2006, around 80/2/4. For dynasty leaguers, his value will take a dip from 2007 on if he stays at CB, as he will lose the “untested rookie” tackles, making him a decent option in CB-mandatory leagues with 60/0/4. If he does stay at SS, he becomes a top 20 prospect, with an annual projection of about 80/4. There will be no change for the D/ST, 2006 or beyond.

17. MIN: Jay Cutler, QB (Vanderbilt) – A top candidate to be traded up for, he slides no further than this spot. Vikings brass has been shopping Daunte Culpepper, and the Vikes would be able to groom Cutler under Brad Johnson for a couple years. While his gunslinging mentality and bad decision making are liabilities, these can be coached and should improve watching a patient QB like Johnson. Cutler’s redraft value will be essentially nil, as he should carry a clipboard his first years in the league. Dynasty owners with bench space to warm should be pleasantly surprised to find a poor man’s Brett Favre sitting there in 2008. If given the reigns in 2007, expect no more than 2400/22/25, but 2008 should bring about 3200/28/22 seasons, fantastic in leagues without INT penalties.

18. DAL: DeMeco Ryans, OLB (Alabama) – Another team without major deficiencies, Dallas will be a great fit for Ryans. While he doesn’t possess great speed (4.70), he plays faster than he times, and any physical drawbacks are greatly outweighed by his football knowledge and instincts. He can easily move to inside linebacker with very little coaching if need be, and his great attitude and teamwork will endear him to Parcells. His stats for 2006 will probably hover around 75/3/2 no matter which position he plays and he won’t have much of an impact on the Cowboys D/ST bottomline. Even if he ends up at SLB (the fantasy graveyard for linebackers), he should still produce excellent tackle numbers (90/3/1) due to his great technique and knack for being around the ball. WLB or MLB would push him into the top 20 with a stat line in the 115/5/3 range. That would produce a minimal increase for the Dallas D/ST of perhaps 1 ppg, but nothing more

19. SD: Santonio Holmes, WR (OSU) – Keenan McCardell isn’t getting any younger, and this should be a no-brainer for the Chargers. Holmes is the best WR in the draft and will provide an excellent weapon to complement Tomlinson and Gates as the Phillip Rivers era begins. His value in 2006 will depend on how he gels with Rivers, but it is reasonable to expect 800/5 in his first season. Having to compete with Gates and Tomlinson for catches will limit his value, but he can still be expected to put up 1200/8 in any given season, putting him in top 20 company on the dynasty side.

20. KC: Broderick Bunkley, DT (FSU) – The Chiefs need a defensive tackle badly and barring a trade up for Ngata, they will settle for Bunkley here. While he will never be a statistical force, he will plug the middle and get a good push into the backfield, making life easier on the KC linebacking corps. While having no individual value in 2006, IDP league owners can bump Kawika Mitchell, Derrick O. Johnson, and even Jared Allen up about 5 spots on their cheatsheets. Dynasty prospects are about the same, except in leagues that require the DT position, where owners can expect a solid, but unspectacular 50/3. In both redraft and dynasty league, the Chiefs D/ST gets perhaps a 1-2 ppg boost from his presence inside, but nothing that will boost them beyond their top 15 status.

21. NE: Bobby Carpenter, OLB (OSU) – With their youngest starting linebacker (Roosevelt Colvin) turning 29 at the start of the season, the Pats get younger at the key position in Belichick’s defensive scheme. Bobby’s father Rob also played for the Giants during Belichick’s years in NY. Bobby has been a great SLB, with the versatility to move inside and play the pass-rushing role in the Patriot’s 3-4 defense. His 2006 redraft value will be minimal, but his dynasty IDP value should be in line with the LB he replaces. Best case scenario: the “Tedy Bruschi” spot with 85/3/3, Worst case scenario: the “Willie McGinnest” role with 55/8/1. In any event, he will only continue to ensure the same quality we have seen from the Patriots D/ST.

22. DEN (from WAS): Vernon Davis, TE (Maryland) – Mike Shanahan remembers what a luxury Shannon Sharpe was, and he finally has a replacement. Davis is a fantastic receiver with great speed (4.49) for a tight end. He needs some improvement in his blocking, but the Bronco’s zone blocking scheme isn’t too hard too pick up. Despite any rookie growing pains, he should produce numbers worthy of a backup fantasy TE, in the 700/6 range for the 2006 campaign. Dynasty owners should have some idea who he is already, as any TE with his receiving skills is worth his weight in gold. His final grades should be comparable to those of Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow Jr.; look for 1100/8 as a minimum from 2007 forward.

23. TB: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE (BC) – Simeon Rice is getting older (32) and Greg Spires is only 2 years younger. OL is also a need, but Kiwanuka has too much upside to be ignored this late in the 1st round. He has plenty of room to grow (6’7” 261 lbs.) and possesses outstanding pass rushing ability, intangibles, and athleticism, drawing comparisons to Rice coming out of college. Initial IDP numbers will be modest, but draftable; 50/7 is quite reasonable for 2006, but will not improve the D/ST status. Beyond next year, the D/ST gains a good boost from both Rice and Kiwanuka on opposite side of the line (ala Strahan and Umenyiora for the Giants) to the tune of 3 ppg, putting them in the top 5 as long as Rice is a Buccaneer. In IDP terms, look for 45/12 from Mathias from year to year. One word of caution: Kiwanuka has the biggest potential to be a bust as well; his weight not getting to around 280 may be the first tip you get.

24. CIN: Leonard Pope, TE (Georgia) – The Bengals have few needs on offense, but TE is one that sticks out. Pope fills that need well, giving Carson Palmer a big (6’7” 250 lbs.) target to complement his great wide receivers. He doesn’t have elite speed (4.64), but that isn’t necessary with Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Chris Henry at WR. His redraft potential is limited to 700/6 at the most in 2006, but his dynasty prospects in Cincy are another matter. In the Bengals high-powered offense, expect 1000/12 as his huge frame will vulture endzone targets from the WR corps, especially Chad Johnson.

25. NYG: Nick Mangold, C (OSU) –Eli Manning needs a center to develop with and Shaun O’Hara is not the answer. The Giants have invested too much in Manning to have a revolving door at C, thus enters Mangold. The best center in the draft, Nick will need to bulk up a bit (6’4” 290 lbs.), but has the frame to do so. His mean streak and durability just add to his appeal here. In fantasy terms, Manning’s yardage numbers will remain largely the same in 2006, but his TD/INT ratio should improve by +/- 5 for 3700/29/12. Those numbers should remain the same in dynasty terms as well. Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, and the rest of the skill position players will give you the same stats, with the extra touchdowns going to Barber and Jeremy Shockey.

26. CHI: Marcedes Lewis, TE (UCLA) – A bit more raw than Davis or Pope, Lewis is nonetheless a great TE prospect in his own right. He is a better blocker than some give him credit for, and with 15 lbs. added to his 6’6” 256 lb. frame he will fit into the Bears smashmouth style. He doesn’t possess great speed (4.75), but makes up for it with superb hands. He will be a good outlet for Rex Grossman, with 500/5 being a reasonable expectation in his rookie year. He will be a 2nd tier TE in a Bear uniform, putting up 800/8 for dynasty owners.

27. CAR: Chad Jackson, WR (UF) – With the Panthers already looking to free agency for a running back, they look to the draft for a good complement to Steve Smith and find Jackson. His ability to be a downfield threat is a question mark, but it won’t be necessary opposite Smith. Jackson has good route running skills and reliable hands to go with 4.43 speed and explosive acceleration. Being opposite Smith will give him an opportunity to make an immediate mark in single coverage, with 1000/6 being quite reasonable for 2006. Dynasty owners may be able to sneak him onto their rosters for cheap before the 2006 season due to the (deserved) anti-Gator WR bias. Smart owners will keep in mind that while Chad’s yards-per-catch (YPC) dropped from 22.3 in ’04 to 10.3 in ’05, he caught 88 balls in Urban Meyer’s offense compared to 29 in the previous season. Expect a solid 1200/9 from him starting in 2007.

28. JAX: Antonio Cromartie, CB (FSU) – The Jaguars can afford to pick the best available athlete here, and Cromartie is the best in the draft, bar none. He has great size for a corner (6’3” 210 lbs.), clocked 4.37 in the 40-yard dash, and is a pure cover corner with a knack for returning interceptions (and kicks) for touchdowns. His big drawback is the ACL he tore in July 2005, causing him to miss his entire junior season. Should he be declared medically sound and perform well at the combine, his stock will soar. He will have little IDP value beyond his rookie campaign, in which you can expect 70/0/5. His value to the Jacksonville D/ST unit will come as much from his kick returning ability as his defensive skills; expect a 2 ppg increase in 2006. Expect a healthy Cromartie to hold the same dynasty value as Champ Bailey, with his main appeal being in his ability to grab errant passes and return them for a TD. The outlook for the entire D/ST is a 3 ppg increase as long as he is the KR/PR.

29. DEN: Greg Eslinger, C (Minnesota) – As Tom Nalen enters his 12th NFL season, the Broncos need to inject youth into their OL. Eslinger (6’3” 285lbs.) perfectly fits the Denver zone blocking system, which emphasizes skill, athleticism, and intelligence over bulk. There is no change for any skill position player, as his intelligence and work ethic allow him to slide seamlessly into any position needed in the Bronco’s O-line machine which is already among the NFL’s top units.

30. IND: Laurence Maroney, RB (Minnesota) – Just as in college, Eslinger precedes Maroney. A prolific college back, there are questions regarding his decidedly un-physical running style, but that won’t matter to the Colts, who are unlikely to resign Edgerrin James. His excellent patience, instincts, and vision combined with an extra gear make him a threat to take it to the house on any given play. His hands will be the biggest question the Colts need answered, as he wasn’t thrown to much in college. In any case, he would start from day one, giving him a rosy 1200/10 300/5 outlook for 2006. Being a Colt will also make or break him from a dynasty perspective, as he will probably only fit ¼ of NFL teams, most of which already have at least a solid RB. Being a Colt, however, will be a perfect fit, and Maroney owners can look for 1400/14 500/6 until the Colts let him walk too.

31. SEA: Tye Hill, CB (Clemson) – No team will be more thrilled to see a player than Seattle will be to see Hill here. Andre Dyson did nothing to secure himself a job on the Super Bowl losers when he wasn’t injured. His speed (4.40 even) makes him one of the fastest players in the draft and he still has plenty of upside, having split all but his senior season between two sports (track). His great leaping ability and fluid hip movement combined with his innate ability to play the ball in the air will only make the Seahawks drool. The factors that allow him to slip this far, namely his size (5’10” 180lbs.) and his stone hands will not matter to the ‘Hawks who will ask him to play in the 2nd CB role and will only show against teams with two top quality wideouts. Those problems will not endear him to IDP owners, dynasty or otherwise, as his tackle and interception numbers will suffer. On the flip side, playing opposite Marcus Trufant will severely limit most teams’ options causing big plays from teammates and a general 2 ppg increase, both in 2006 and beyond.

32. PIT: Ashton Youboty, CB (OSU) – The next in a line of excellent cornerbacks from Ohio State (Winfield, Springs, Clement, Gamble), he will make a nice replacement should Ike Taylor depart via free agency. He will need coaching and development, but Bill Cowher will certainly give that. He is above average in all physical areas, as well as being a physical player and solid tackler, both requirements to play in the black and gold. He won’t make an impact for 2006 in almost any case, but his smarts and physical ability should translate into an above average IDP prospect, especially in leagues that require you to start 1-2 CBs. Look for him to post similar stats to Taylor, in the 75/0/2 range, starting in 2007, which will mean neither an increase nor decrease the value of a top 5 unit already.

There you have it, the draft if it happened tomorrow. Projections, are of course, just that, and do not account for players being inexplicably replaced with slower, dumber, or more injury prone versions. I will, however, attempt to take some form of credit if they outdo my predictions. :D Time to Mock the Mock!
Personally, I think the Texans SHOULD trade the 1.01 pick, but most think they will indeed go for Bush, and that'll be that.I agree with White going to Baltimore. Many have him slipping to Minnesota, but I think if he's still on the board when the Ravens are picking, he'll be taken. I think he'd fit in nicely there. And the Lewis/Taylor era will end.

I don't, however, agree with Cutler. With all the hoopla about him, and I don't see him falling all the way to 17. SOMEONE will snatch him up earlier than that.

I also don't agree that Addai will be taken before Maroney. One scenario that I liked, was in Don Banks' mock draft (CNNSI.com) where he has Maroney going to New England. I could certainly see him going there. NE will likely be looking to the future at RB, as Dillon probably doesn't have too many more years in him, and they realize this.

 
One scenario that I liked, was in Don Banks' mock draft (CNNSI.com) where he has Maroney going to New England. I could certainly see him going there. NE will likely be looking to the future at RB, as Dillon probably doesn't have too many more years in him, and they realize this.
:no:
 
One scenario that I liked, was in Don Banks' mock draft (CNNSI.com) where he has Maroney going to New England.  I could certainly see him going there.  NE will likely be looking to the future at RB, as Dillon probably doesn't have too many more years in him, and they realize this.
:no:
I agree. NE could go with a RB, but NOT Maroney. IMHO, you can't have a shifty, dancing RB when you play outside in the snow. Best thing that happens on a slipped cut is the end of a run, but you risk injury every time you try to cut hard on slippery ground. Now if White ends up being one of those guys that slips for no good reason, I could see NE taking him, but not Maroney
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top