2006 Shark Pool Suicide -- Week 4 *** 471 still alive *** (1 Viewer)

[Robbie Cooper]

Looks like it's going to be a Bye Week in the Shark Pool Suicide game in Week 5, as almost everybody who hasn't already picked the Colts will take them to blow out the Titans this week (at Indy).

Not sure why you think this? IMO opinion the Colts are as close as a sure thing you can get in this format- almost regardless of who they play. You want to save those sure things for the weeks where there are no other options, not for when the "sure thing" plays the worst team. Still lots of options this week with NE, Car, Chi, Jack.

I agree with you on your strategy. I didn't say I was taking the Colts. But just look at Week 4 and the number of teams that chose Cowboys, who were easily the closest thing to a "sure thing" as you were going to find in Week 4.Look at Indy's upcoming schedule:

Week 6 Bye

Week 7 vs Washington (should be an Indy win, but I wouldn't call it a 'gimme --- See also: Jacksonville, Week 4)

Week 8 at Denver (I don't know that I call this a "sure" thing, either)

Week 9 at New England (I doubt I'll wait till week 9 to try and use Indy)

Week 10 vs Buffalo (a good pick if you want to hold off using the Colts until Week 10 --- but I'm saving Baltimore vs Tennessee for Week 10)

Considering that most Suicide Leagues are won in ~Week 10, I don't see any merit in holding onto Indy given their upcoming schedule.

Not saying this is the best or only strategy...but you said you weren't "sure why you think this", so I just wanted to assuage your doubts that this wasn't just a random thought I threw out on the MB without thinking it through.

 

[Gamblor]

Looks like it's going to be a Bye Week in the Shark Pool Suicide game in Week 5, as almost everybody who hasn't already picked the Colts will take them to blow out the Titans this week (at Indy).

Not sure why you think this? IMO opinion the Colts are as close as a sure thing you can get in this format- almost regardless of who they play. You want to save those sure things for the weeks where there are no other options, not for when the "sure thing" plays the worst team. Still lots of options this week with NE, Car, Chi, Jack.

I agree with you on your strategy. I didn't say I was taking the Colts. But just look at Week 4 and the number of teams that chose Cowboys, who were easily the closest thing to a "sure thing" as you were going to find in Week 4.Look at Indy's upcoming schedule:

Week 6 Bye

Week 7 vs Washington (should be an Indy win, but I wouldn't call it a 'gimme --- See also: Jacksonville, Week 4)

Week 8 at Denver (I don't know that I call this a "sure" thing, either)

Week 9 at New England (I doubt I'll wait till week 9 to try and use Indy)

Week 10 vs Buffalo (a good pick if you want to hold off using the Colts until Week 10 --- but I'm saving Baltimore vs Tennessee for Week 10)

Considering that most Suicide Leagues are won in ~Week 10, I don't see any merit in holding onto Indy given their upcoming schedule.

Not saying this is the best or only strategy...but you said you weren't "sure why you think this", so I just wanted to assuage your doubts that this wasn't just a random thought I threw out on the MB without thinking it through.

Appreciate you explaining why you think this way... Some more thoughts on your thoughts...Cowboys were a sure thing last week. Thats why they were picked by the masses as there are only a handful of teams that Cowboys can play to make them a sure thing. Teams like Indy can play almost any team in the league to make them a sure thing. Thats why you need to exploit teams like the Cowboys when they play a garbage team.

Looking a bit further at those weeks you mentioned though you will see there are not as many options as there are this week. There are at least 5 solid starts this week, week 7 and 8 I only see a couple for each. Especially considering the fact that the further you go in this contest, the fewer good teams you have to available. I would still take Indy over Wash, Den or Buff (would never touch a NE/Indy game given the history) and feel confident that I will move on another week.

Not sure why you say most suicide leagues are won in approximately week 10? No data to base this on, but I would guess all but the smallest leagues go much further than that. The league I participate in has gone to week 15, 16 or 17 in each of the seasons it has run. Even this pool I believe had to go to a tie breaker in week 17 last year. With this many participants I would definately count on this pool going well past week 10.

Edit to add: It may be risky to pick a team like Chicago, NE, Car or jacksonville instead of Indy this week. It could very well bite me in the ### and create an "I told you so". To win a pool like this though you need to take some risk in order to attempt to get to the end. Id rather take a chance in week 5 risking on one of the above 4 teams, then to get to week 13 and realize I need to choose oakland over Houston because ive used Indy up.

 

[Robbie Cooper]

Good discussion here.

 

[Monty Burns]

used NE/DENV/MIA/PHIL

week 5 CHI

 

[harrycarey]

used NE/DENV/MIA/PHILweek 5 CHI

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm guessing that this is not the officila Week 5 thread, so I would not post picks in this one . . .

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I was in a meeting all day and had no innerwebz time today, I'll get the week 5 thread up tonight. Monty, make sure you repost there.

 

[GoL]

Looks like it's going to be a Bye Week in the Shark Pool Suicide game in Week 5, as almost everybody who hasn't already picked the Colts will take them to blow out the Titans this week (at Indy).

Not sure why you think this? IMO opinion the Colts are as close as a sure thing you can get in this format- almost regardless of who they play. You want to save those sure things for the weeks where there are no other options, not for when the "sure thing" plays the worst team. Still lots of options this week with NE, Car, Chi, Jack.

I agree with you on your strategy. I didn't say I was taking the Colts. But just look at Week 4 and the number of teams that chose Cowboys, who were easily the closest thing to a "sure thing" as you were going to find in Week 4.Look at Indy's upcoming schedule:

Week 6 Bye

Week 7 vs Washington (should be an Indy win, but I wouldn't call it a 'gimme --- See also: Jacksonville, Week 4)

Week 8 at Denver (I don't know that I call this a "sure" thing, either)

Week 9 at New England (I doubt I'll wait till week 9 to try and use Indy)

Week 10 vs Buffalo (a good pick if you want to hold off using the Colts until Week 10 --- but I'm saving Baltimore vs Tennessee for Week 10)

Considering that most Suicide Leagues are won in ~Week 10, I don't see any merit in holding onto Indy given their upcoming schedule.

Not saying this is the best or only strategy...but you said you weren't "sure why you think this", so I just wanted to assuage your doubts that this wasn't just a random thought I threw out on the MB without thinking it through.

Appreciate you explaining why you think this way... Some more thoughts on your thoughts...Cowboys were a sure thing last week. Thats why they were picked by the masses as there are only a handful of teams that Cowboys can play to make them a sure thing. Teams like Indy can play almost any team in the league to make them a sure thing. Thats why you need to exploit teams like the Cowboys when they play a garbage team.

Looking a bit further at those weeks you mentioned though you will see there are not as many options as there are this week. There are at least 5 solid starts this week, week 7 and 8 I only see a couple for each. Especially considering the fact that the further you go in this contest, the fewer good teams you have to available. I would still take Indy over Wash, Den or Buff (would never touch a NE/Indy game given the history) and feel confident that I will move on another week.

Not sure why you say most suicide leagues are won in approximately week 10? No data to base this on, but I would guess all but the smallest leagues go much further than that. The league I participate in has gone to week 15, 16 or 17 in each of the seasons it has run. Even this pool I believe had to go to a tie breaker in week 17 last year. With this many participants I would definately count on this pool going well past week 10.

Edit to add: It may be risky to pick a team like Chicago, NE, Car or jacksonville instead of Indy this week. It could very well bite me in the ### and create an "I told you so". To win a pool like this though you need to take some risk in order to attempt to get to the end. Id rather take a chance in week 5 risking on one of the above 4 teams, then to get to week 13 and realize I need to choose oakland over Houston because ive used Indy up.

You guys are taking this way too seriously. Looking ahead?!?

 

[Monty Burns]

I'm guessing that this is not the officila Week 5 thread, so I would not post picks in this one . . .

Sorry, got ahead of myself due to a very busy upcoming week...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Used: Arizona, Baltimore, Miami, Philly

Week 5: San Fran

 

[Kleck]

MKB4® is submitting his pick through me. He would like the Colts.