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2006 Steal of the Draft (1 Viewer)

The topic says it all. Who will be the steal of the draft in 2006, and most importantly, why? I'll edit this first post as we go...in order of most nominations plus supporting posters.

The summary of all those nominated below, with nominating and supporting posters in parentheses:

8. Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee (Mister CIA, Bloom): "Speaking of TEs and guys named Ben ... both of them." I LOVE BEN TROUPE NEXT YEAR!!! However all bets are off until we know who the QB will be.

19. Eric Moulds, WR, ??? (Marc Levin): "Will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag." Here is the problem. Will he be a steal? Or will someone reach too early? For example...if he lands with the Patriots, and Brady throws to him non stop in pre-season to get him the reps and timing...and his stock soars. Then what happens when the reg. season begins and Brady goes back to throwing to 12 other targets? If he lands with any team that has a poor defense and a strong QB he will be a stud.
 
Brandon Lloyd - SF will straighten out their offense next season and while they won't have huge passing yards, they really only have one target.

 
Brandon Lloyd - SF will straighten out their offense next season and while they won't have huge passing yards, they really only have one target.
Eric Johnson might have something to say about that
 
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Frank Gore. His ability is widely overlooked. He is 3x the back that Kevan Barlow is, and will have the chance to unseat him. I also think the situation there improves vastly next year (it still won't be a powerhouse, but it will be a big step up). He'll perform admirably as an RB2, and RB steals are usually the most valuable in the draft, so he'll be well worth his ADP.
 
Updated everything...I'm going to respond to a couple of these later. Remember, the nominees are in order of their support.

 
2. Onterrio Smith, RB, Minnesota (Bledsoe to Moulds, Knowledge Reigns Supreme): "The eternal steal of the draft." Will he be forgotten in a lot of formats?
I was referring to the nickname he gave himself because he fell to the 4th round, not his prospects for the 2006 season.
Then you're taken off. :)
Although the more I think of this, the more I find it mildly plausible. Everyone would assume that MM would be the guy because he is small like Westbrook. That doesn't necessarily mean anything. He will want the guy who most can do the things he wants done. Smith is no slouch in the receiving game and appears much much better than MM in pass protection (although that's not hard to do).Still, I have an eternal bias against RBs who can't take over the role after two seasons.

Of course, Minnesota could be an outlier because of the way things were run.

 
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Possible steal because he'll likely be available in late rounds or on the waiver wire:Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins -----Brunell cannot stay healthy all year, Ramsey will likely be gone, Gibbs has already acknowledged the need to upgrade the offensive output (which was quite offensive st times) again, the running game is solid as is the O-line. If they get a reliable WR#2 and Brunell gets hurt or resumes weekly stinkage, Campbell may play a good bit. How he does is anyone's guess, but there are worse situations for a rookie QB to begin starting than the Redskins. If you're in a dynasty league which begins this year, he's worth considering.

 
Lendale White or Samkon Gado.

:yes:
Well, I'm going to put you on the spot...Why?
The way I read that, he was saying "Whoever is the starter in GB next year"
Until he signs elsewhere, I'll read that as "Ahman Green"
Yeah, I agree.I don't see Green losing his job completely over what happened this year.
It wasn't my comment, I was just trying to decode the original Jabroni quote for Keys. Although as a free agent, he doesn't have to "lose his job" to end up somewhere else. It depends on what others are offering.
 
Possible steal because he'll likely be available in late rounds or on the waiver wire:

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins -----

Brunell cannot stay healthy all year, Ramsey will likely be gone, Gibbs has already acknowledged the need to upgrade the offensive output (which was quite offensive st times) again, the running game is solid as is the O-line. If they get a reliable WR#2 and Brunell gets hurt or resumes weekly stinkage, Campbell may play a good bit. How he does is anyone's guess, but there are worse situations for a rookie QB to begin starting than the Redskins. If you're in a dynasty league which begins this year, he's worth considering.
Campbell's upside in 2006 will be about the numbers that Palmer put up in 2004.
 
Possible steal because he'll likely be available in late rounds or on the waiver wire:

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins -----

Brunell cannot stay healthy all year, Ramsey will likely be gone, Gibbs has already acknowledged the need to upgrade the offensive output (which was quite offensive st times) again, the running game is solid as is the O-line. If they get a reliable WR#2 and Brunell gets hurt or resumes weekly stinkage, Campbell may play a good bit. How he does is anyone's guess, but there are worse situations for a rookie QB to begin starting than the Redskins. If you're in a dynasty league which begins this year, he's worth considering.
I was leaning more toward redrafts with this thread.Maybe we can start a dynasty one later.

 
Most of the guys listed won't be steals as much as they will be reasonable bargains.
I think any number of them could be steals.My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted. That's huge.
Under my definition, not very many fourth and fifth round picks could be "steals," even if they finish in the top-10 at their position. And none of the players I pick as my anticipated starters can EVER be steals. So you are probably in at least the 7th round before I' consider any player a steal. "Good bargains" or "got 'em cheap" is a much better word for any player picked in the 5th to 8th rounds.To meet the definition of the word "steal," you, essentially, did not "pay" for the player, so they have to be at least an anticipated backup- and probably would have to be the 2nd backup at the WR/RB spots to be considered steals.

 
Frank Gore. His ability is widely overlooked. He is 3x the back that Kevan Barlow is, and will have the chance to unseat him. I also think the situation there improves vastly next year (it still won't be a powerhouse, but it will be a big step up). He'll perform admirably as an RB2, and RB steals are usually the most valuable in the draft, so he'll be well worth his ADP.
I'd give him a "spot performer" place on my team, but I would not be confortable with him as my RB3 next year. I'd probably feel safer with a RB in a committee over Gore if that wa what I was down to as my RB3.He'd be a great RB4 acquisition, borderline RB3.

 
Most of the guys listed won't be steals as much as they will be reasonable bargains.
I think any number of them could be steals.My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted. That's huge.
Under my definition, not very many fourth and fifth round picks could be "steals," even if they finish in the top-10 at their position. And none of the players I pick as my anticipated starters can EVER be steals. So you are probably in at least the 7th round before I' consider any player a steal. "Good bargains" or "got 'em cheap" is a much better word for any player picked in the 5th to 8th rounds.To meet the definition of the word "steal," you, essentially, did not "pay" for the player, so they have to be at least an anticipated backup- and probably would have to be the 2nd backup at the WR/RB spots to be considered steals.
That's a fair definition...I obviously have a different opinion, though, because I feel you virtually "steal" a first round draft pick if you're able to get that kind of value in the 4th-6th rounds.I think this thread has a fair mix of both, though. But Drew Carter was the pick that started this thread for me, so hopefully we can at least agree on that. :)

 
Most of the guys listed won't be steals as much as they will be reasonable bargains.
I think any number of them could be steals.My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted. That's huge.
Under my definition, not very many fourth and fifth round picks could be "steals," even if they finish in the top-10 at their position. And none of the players I pick as my anticipated starters can EVER be steals. So you are probably in at least the 7th round before I' consider any player a steal. "Good bargains" or "got 'em cheap" is a much better word for any player picked in the 5th to 8th rounds.To meet the definition of the word "steal," you, essentially, did not "pay" for the player, so they have to be at least an anticipated backup- and probably would have to be the 2nd backup at the WR/RB spots to be considered steals.
That's a fair definition...I obviously have a different opinion, though, because I feel you virtually "steal" a first round draft pick if you're able to get that kind of value in the 4th-6th rounds.I think this thread has a fair mix of both, though. But Drew Carter was the pick that started this thread for me, so hopefully we can at least agree on that. :)
Okay, Marc and Keys, retrospectively, who do you think were steals in 2005? This would help define the question for 2006.
 
Okay, Marc and Keys, retrospectively, who do you think were steals in 2005? This would help define the question for 2006.
This is how I responded to the original post that started the debate:
My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted. That's huge.

This year, that would be people like Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Carson Palmer, etc.

See this thread for details...

But I think 75% of these nominees could do the same thing.

If you think Smith, Chambers, and Palmer were "reasonable bargains" this year, that's fine. I think they were steals. Different definitions for different folks. :shrug: Perfectly fair for you to think that way...I just happen to disagree.
 
Okay, Marc and Keys, retrospectively, who do you think were steals in 2005?  This would help define the question for 2006.
This is how I responded to the original post that started the debate:
My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted.  That's huge.

This year, that would be people like Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Carson Palmer, etc.

See this thread for details...

But I think 75% of these nominees could do the same thing.

If you think Smith, Chambers, and Palmer were "reasonable bargains" this year, that's fine.  I think they were steals.  Different definitions for different folks. :shrug:   Perfectly fair for you to think that way...I just happen to disagree.
my point was for definition purposes. I agree on Chambers, but Smith and Palmer went early in my leagues. If a player is drafted in the top 10 at their position, and finish top 5 (or 1) - is that still a steal?
 
Okay, Marc and Keys, retrospectively, who do you think were steals in 2005? This would help define the question for 2006.
This is how I responded to the original post that started the debate:
My definition of a steal would be someone who's worth 3 rounds better than they were drafted. That's huge.

This year, that would be people like Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Carson Palmer, etc.

See this thread for details...

But I think 75% of these nominees could do the same thing.

If you think Smith, Chambers, and Palmer were "reasonable bargains" this year, that's fine. I think they were steals. Different definitions for different folks. :shrug: Perfectly fair for you to think that way...I just happen to disagree.
my point was for definition purposes. I agree on Chambers, but Smith and Palmer went early in my leagues. If a player is drafted in the top 10 at their position, and finish top 5 (or 1) - is that still a steal?
Depends on what their value is relative to everyone else's. If I can get what amounts to be a first round pick in the 4th, 5th, or 6th rounds...yes, I believe it's a steal.

 
19.  Eric Moulds, WR, ??? (Marc Levin):  "Will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag."  Here is the problem.  Will he be a steal?  Or will someone reach too early?  For example...if he lands with the Patriots, and Brady throws to him non stop in pre-season to get him the reps and timing...and his stock soars.  Then what happens when the reg. season begins and Brady goes back to throwing to 12 other targets?  If he lands with any team that has a poor defense and a strong QB he will be a stud.
I'm not following you here - if he went to the Pats, Branch is still the #1 option.Someone might reach too early if he goes to a team with absoluitely no WRs (ie - KC), but I can't imagine him being selected much higher than he was selected this past year - which was somewhere in the WR28 range in most drafts.

Yeah - if someone picks him in the top-20, they reached. If you can get him after WR30, he could be the SOD.

And, I am betting that every "steal" named in this thread carries the risk of someone (maybe a team homer) reaching for him.

On Moulds, I anticipate he will have a WR35 or lower price tag in many drafts.

 
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OK. I understand what you are saying. But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal". That was my assertion. You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.

 
OK. I understand what you are saying. But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal". That was my assertion. You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
Outperforming ADP to me would be about a round and a half above where he's drafted. That's still huge to me, honestly.And Michael Turner doesn't belong there. He sucks. I would recommend getting rid of him whenever you can.

 
OK.  I understand what you are saying.  But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal".  That was my assertion.  You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
Outperforming ADP to me would be about a round and a half above where he's drafted. That's still huge to me, honestly.And Michael Turner doesn't belong there. He sucks. I would recommend getting rid of him whenever you can.
:ph34r:
 
Okay, Marc and Keys, retrospectively, who do you think were steals in 2005? This would help define the question for 2006.
Reuben Droughns, Santana Moss, and Terry Glenn leap to the top of my mind.Carson Palmer was selected in the top-12 for QBs in very few of my leagues this year, and I often found him available as late as the 8th/9th round in 12-team leagues - he'd be considered a steal.

 
OK.  I understand what you are saying.  But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal".  That was my assertion.  You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
Outperforming ADP to me would be about a round and a half above where he's drafted. That's still huge to me, honestly.And Michael Turner doesn't belong there. He sucks. I would recommend getting rid of him whenever you can.
what do you think he's worth?
 
OK. I understand what you are saying. But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal". That was my assertion. You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
Outperforming ADP to me would be about a round and a half above where he's drafted. That's still huge to me, honestly.And Michael Turner doesn't belong there. He sucks. I would recommend getting rid of him whenever you can.
what do you think he's worth?
It was a joke. :) I think you're right about him, as per your PM, I just wish you didn't realize it.
 
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Sure he's a risk with his drug problems, but my guy here is Ricky Williams. Nobody wants to pay too much for him. He may end up on another team and in a better situation. Even if he stays with Miami, he'll be the best backup RB in the league. He'll be very productive in relations to where he'll be drafted.

 
OK. I understand what you are saying. But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal". That was my assertion. You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
excactly - Keith's original definition leans much more to my concept of a "good bargain" and not anywhetre near my concept of a "steal."My 15th round TE perfoirming like a 12th round TE won't get a "steal" rating from me.

In short, for me, the player has to be drafted late and has to perform well enough to be a no-brainer starter for a sufficient number of weeks to impact my season for me to think of the player as a steal.

Gado was a steal off the WW, but we are talking about steals in the draft.

 
OK. I understand what you are saying. But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal". That was my assertion. You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
excactly - Keith's original definition leans much more to my concept of a "good bargain" and not anywhetre near my concept of a "steal."

My 15th round TE perfoirming like a 12th round TE won't get a "steal" rating from me.

In short, for me, the player has to be drafted late and has to perform well enough to be a no-brainer starter for a sufficient number of weeks to impact my season for me to think of the player as a steal.

Gado was a steal off the WW, but we are talking about steals in the draft.
Who's Keith? :lol: You really can use my real first name. I don't care.

By the way...the bolded part is changing my mind, and forcing me to rework my definition of a steal. The 3 round advantage rule would only apply to those drafted in the 4th-7th round. I'd have to adjust it after that.

My definition is more of a gut feeling, too, but I'm much more liberal with the term "steal" that you are.

 
OK.  I understand what you are saying.  But, there is a point where a player goes from "outperforming his ADP" to "being a steal".  That was my assertion.  You are finding guys in the former, Marc was looking for guys in the latter.

I do not disagree with you, just asking for definition.
excactly - Keith's original definition leans much more to my concept of a "good bargain" and not anywhetre near my concept of a "steal."

My 15th round TE perfoirming like a 12th round TE won't get a "steal" rating from me.

In short, for me, the player has to be drafted late and has to perform well enough to be a no-brainer starter for a sufficient number of weeks to impact my season for me to think of the player as a steal.

Gado was a steal off the WW, but we are talking about steals in the draft.
Who's Keith? :lol: You really can use my real first name. I don't care.

By the way...the bolded part is changing my mind, and forcing me to rework my definition of a steal. The 3 round advantage rule would only apply to those drafted in the 4th-7th round. I'd have to adjust it after that.

My definition is more of a gut feeling, too, but I'm much more liberal with the term "steal" that you are.
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.

 
for definition:in my 16 team redraft, Curtis was the very last pick (#256). That was a steal. So was Joe Jurevicous.I think a guys drafted as WR60 who performs in Top20 is a steal. And both did this in that league.

 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals.  You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.

 
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for definition:

in my 16 team redraft, Curtis was the very last pick (#256). That was a steal. So was Joe Jurevicous.

I think a guys drafted as WR60 who performs in Top20 is a steal. And both did this in that league.
:thumbup:
 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
I think it's the opposite. Sleepers are not guys that are drafted in the top 100 of all players. Those guys are "bargains" as in getting an $80 pair of jeans for $55 is a bargain, although certainly not cheap.Joey Galloway at #175 overall is a sleeper.

Warrick Dunn at #51 is undervalued, but not a sleeper.

Put another way, Warrick Dunn drafted #51 overall and finishing as RB13 is nice to have, but it's not a huge surprise.

Joey Galloway finishing as WR5 is a huge surprise, even for those who valued him as a sleeper.

BOTH were steals however IMO.

 
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Sure he's a risk with his drug problems, but my guy here is Ricky Williams. Nobody wants to pay too much for him. He may end up on another team and in a better situation. Even if he stays with Miami, he'll be the best backup RB in the league. He'll be very productive in relations to where he'll be drafted.
Added.If he gets traded, there's no way he's a steal, or even a bargain. His draft stock will rise too much.

 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals.  You flyers can certainly be steals.
I think it's the opposite. Sleepers are not guys that are drafted in the top 100 of all players. Those guys are "bargains" as in getting an $80 pair of jeans for $55 is a bargain, although certainly not cheap.
Those are also sleepers.Not in the top-200? Those are flyers.

 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.
And see, I feel LJ was a steal for what he ended up doing (remember, he ended up as the #2 overall draft pick if we did it over again).But, if there's enough people, I'll probably change the subject of the thread, since I'm feeling more and more in the vast minority here.

 
:shrug: How bored are we to be debating steal/value/flyer/sleeper?RE: Matt Jones - I'm wondering where his ADP will be next year, but he is a potential WR1 that should be had much later.
 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals.  You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.
And see, I feel LJ was a steal for what he ended up doing (remember, he ended up as the #2 overall draft pick if we did it over again).But, if there's enough people, I'll probably change the subject of the thread, since I'm feeling more and more in the vast minority here.
But you only took LJ as high as the fourth round b/c you anticipated he would play - and we knew that if he played, he'd play at a top-5 RB level. LJ was really a reach in the 4th/5th round - but that was where you had to take him if you anticipated he would play enough games to warrant a starting role.Picking Steve Smith in the 4th or 5th was picking a WR you were likely planning to line up at WR1 or WR2 every single week - how can that person be a "steal" simply b/c they performed at a top-5 WR level? You spent a buttload for the player - he was the 4th or 5th player added to your team - and you had high expectations for him to begin with- - you expected him to finish as a top-20 WR or else you wouldn't have taken him as your WR1/2.

"The steal of the draft" has to be a guy you did not select as one of your starters. If he was already a starter for you and he had a top-5 year, he was a great bargain - he was a successful sleeper - he was a great pick - but, IMO, he was a variety of things other than a "steal"

 
:shrug: How bored are we to be debating steal/value/flyer/sleeper?

RE: Matt Jones -

I'm wondering where his ADP will be next year, but he is a potential WR1 that should be had much later.
You come round here March - June much?
 
:shrug: How bored are we to be debating steal/value/flyer/sleeper?

RE: Matt Jones -

I'm wondering where his ADP will be next year, but he is a potential WR1 that should be had much later.
You come round here March - June much?
I lurked for a long time, ignored most of that type of talk.
 

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