Just like Mike Vanderjagt in 2004, Vinatieri will be the first kicker to go in many fantasy drafts in 2005, based on his career year last year. That might be a fantasy mistake. From a value perspective, that means he’ll go earlier than kickers typically warrant consideration. It is also difficult to put together consecutive high scoring seasons. It would be natural to think that a very good kicker on very good team could easily repeat that, but history suggests otherwise. Since 1991, teams kicking over 140 points in a given year average 109 the following year (high of 124, low of 91). Bill Bellichick has done a great job in New England, but this year may be his most challenging yet. He’ll be shooting for a Super Bowl three-peat, something no team has ever done. He also lost his offensive and defensive coordinators during the offseason. Vinatieri could actually be a risky fantasy pick this year.