2007 DB Projection (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Full DB rankings here (CB only thread here)

Same rules apply. FBG/Zealotish scoring assuming healthy 16 game season. Rankings are taken from stat projections without adjustments for upside, likelihood of injury, or changes in playing time.

DL rankings (including DTs) and discussion

LB rankings and discussion

 

[biggamer3]

Good solid list

Harper could be a super good value this year after his year was cut short by injury.

Whitner can also break out ala Kerry Rhodes did

 

[bcr8f]

Thanks. Any word of Jimmy Williams(Atl) moving to safety?

 

[Beaumont]

Bhawoh Juicy!

 

[TheGreatest]

Good solid listHarper could be a super good value this year after his year was cut short by injury.Whitner can also break out ala Kerry Rhodes did

I like Harper and think he could be a nice pick up this year. My only concern is with the signing of Kaesviharn that could eat into his stats. I think J. Bullocks tkes the biggest hit due to him, but I can see a scenario where Bullocks could rotate at SS with Harper as well.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Jene, wanted to see your opinion on two youngsters, Ko Simpson and Daniel Bullocks. Does the fact that they're FS really knock them down a fantasy list?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks. Any word of Jimmy Williams(Atl) moving to safety?

Checked up again before doing the corners and didn't see anything from the new coaching staff. Williams probably fits the corner mold better than the safety mold in a Mike Zimmer defense and just about every mock is sending Laron Landry to Atlanta thus far.Have to think that the front office would like for Williams to push Jason Webster to the nickel role or unemployment line. Kevin Mathis and Allen Rossum are still around but none of those guys are going to be the kind of press corners (eg Terence Newman) Zimmer would like.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bhawoh Juicy!

Don't get too excited. You'd have to think safety is well up on the priority list in this draft.

 

[Beaumont]

Bhawoh Juicy!

Don't get too excited. You'd have to think safety is well up on the priority list in this draft.

Definitely ... I was surprised to see Juicy on the list ...But I suspect he is a placeholder on the list for a rook ...

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, wanted to see your opinion on two youngsters, Ko Simpson and Daniel Bullocks. Does the fact that they're FS really knock them down a fantasy list?

There are free safeties that can be viable IDP performers -- Greg Wesley, Darren Sharper in GB, etal -- if their talent, surrounding cast, or scheme will support them. Although times are certainly changing and we're seeing more free safeties in run support or in interchangeable roles, the FS is still primarily a deep cover guy and too far from the action to rack up tackles.That's particularly true for a FS on a team that uses a lot of Cover-2, like DET and BUF. Both Simpson and Bullocks are above average two-way safeties, but are hamstrung by a lack of tackle opportunity.Simpson played nearly every snap at FS in Buffalo last season and barely hit the 50 solo tackle plateau (#83 DB by FBG scoring). He'll be better this year, but so will Whitner, but 65 solos is probably his ceiling and means he'll have to make an impossible number of coverage plays to have value in standard 3 DB leagues. Bullocks value may be a little higher because of the poorer LB corps in front of him, but he's really stuck in the same situation. Terrence Holt, who's an underrated all-around guy, had essentially the same stat line as Simpson did last year.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bhawoh Juicy!

Don't get too excited. You'd have to think safety is well up on the priority list in this draft.

Definitely ... I was surprised to see Juicy on the list ...But I suspect he is a placeholder on the list for a rook ...

If I could include placeholders I probably would in some of these cases. Jue may well be the equivalent of the never before seen Starship Enterprise foot soldier -- more likely to get vaporized early than a big part of the Charger 2007 episode.

 

[lord_helmet]

I think Renaldo Hill FS MIA belongs somewhere on that list, he seems to be one of those 2 way FS you talk about.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Jene, wanted to see your opinion on two youngsters, Ko Simpson and Daniel Bullocks. Does the fact that they're FS really knock them down a fantasy list?

There are free safeties that can be viable IDP performers -- Greg Wesley, Darren Sharper in GB, etal -- if their talent, surrounding cast, or scheme will support them. Although times are certainly changing and we're seeing more free safeties in run support or in interchangeable roles, the FS is still primarily a deep cover guy and too far from the action to rack up tackles.That's particularly true for a FS on a team that uses a lot of Cover-2, like DET and BUF. Both Simpson and Bullocks are above average two-way safeties, but are hamstrung by a lack of tackle opportunity.Simpson played nearly every snap at FS in Buffalo last season and barely hit the 50 solo tackle plateau (#83 DB by FBG scoring). He'll be better this year, but so will Whitner, but 65 solos is probably his ceiling and means he'll have to make an impossible number of coverage plays to have value in standard 3 DB leagues. Bullocks value may be a little higher because of the poorer LB corps in front of him, but he's really stuck in the same situation. Terrence Holt, who's an underrated all-around guy, had essentially the same stat line as Simpson did last year.

Damn. Thanks!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Dr. JB:

Tell me a story about how these guys are going to achieve career years (at least in the stats we care about):

Deon Grant

Yeremiah Bell

and why these position battles will turn out this way:

MIN: Dwight Smith over Greg Blue

SD: Bhawoh Jue over Clinton Hart

and lastly how exactly Rodney Harrison will stay healthy and play enough games to merit his rank.

PS Great Work

 

[PatsWillWin]

Love the Jarrard Page projection. I've been scooping this guy off the WW this off-season.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think Renaldo Hill FS MIA belongs somewhere on that list, he seems to be one of those 2 way FS you talk about.

He's definitely one of those two way, newer breed safeties. His value is going to be dependent on big plays to a large extent, especially if the Dolphins are moving more toward Capers 3-4 style. Not many Steeler safeties have had big tackle stats in that scheme, especially the weak side safety.And while it's not relevant to this projection, Hill could lose time to Jason Allen this year.

 

[bcr8f]

Love the Jarrard Page projection. I've been scooping this guy off the WW this off-season.

Me too. Ever since last pre season. He coluld be a big play safety in time.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Dr. JB:

Tell me a story about how these guys are going to achieve career years (at least in the stats we care about):

Deon Grant

Yeremiah Bell

and why these position battles will turn out this way:

MIN: Dwight Smith over Greg Blue

SD: Bhawoh Jue over Clinton Hart

and lastly how exactly Rodney Harrison will stay healthy and play enough games to merit his rank.

PS Great Work

I'm no storyteller but pull up a carpet square and some chocolate milk and I'll give it a shot.
Deon gets new friends

Once upon a time Deon Grant was a Jacksonville Jaguar. Most people who watched him play appreciated his willingness in run support and coverage instincts. But his IDP owners always wondered why his statlines didn't match the scouting reports and they were sad. Then one day Deon became a Seattle Seahawk. When he got to his new home, he told the neighbors that he was a busy person at his last job, but didn't have any consistent responsibilities. One day he'd be playing near his linebacker buddies, the next his bosses would tell him to stay back with his safety friends. He told them he was sad that he didn't get many chances to tackle guys because his bigger buddies were so good. Deon thinks his new team is pretty good but can't help but notice that the guy who played this position before him got to knock the bad guys down a whole lot more than he did with his old friends while still getting a chance to catch the ball the other guys throw.

Deon was also very happy that he'll get to play with his new friend Brian, who moved in down the street a couple of days after Deon got to town. Deon knows Brian is a smart guy who likes to roam around behind everybody else, making sure everybody is in the right place and covering up when they do things wrong. Deon guesses that means he'll get to play closer to the action more this year and make this his best year ever.


THE END

I probably over-projected Yeremiah Bell, given that the Dolphin scheme may give him less tackling opportunity if it moves more toward a Capers 3-4. Most of Bell's decent ranking comes from my projection that his knack for the big play will continue this year. He's proven that he's one of the most likely to generate big play and coverage stats out of the 65-70 solo tackle safety group -- five sacks, eight FF/FR, an INT, and 15 passes defended in his last two seasons of which he was mostly a part time defender. He's probably no Troy Polamalu, though, so there's plenty of risk in relying on Bell to generate those big plays in this defensive scheme.

I like Greg Blue, too. For now, I'm basing my assumption on an off-season comment HC Brad Childress made saying that Smith was the starter "as far as he (Childress) was concerned." Not a ringing endorsement for sure, but it's out there.

Same thing with Jue. Just speculation. Most reports suggested that Jue was the coaches favorite last year over Hart (and even Kiel -- no pun intended). He was apparently at the top of the depth chart early last year and may not have been fully recovered from a knee surgery last off-season. I can't imagine that the Chargers don't draft somebody to hopefully take over at SS sooner than later, so Jue is a poor bet to play a 16 game season at SS. I may also have over-projected the SD safety position again. I remember the statlines Kiel had in 2004 and 2005 when healthy and can't help myself from projecting those DB2 numbers each year. That line is probably going to be easier to attain this year with the loss of Donnie Edwards' tackles in coverage and downfield pursuit.

Rodney Harrison is pretty unlikely to stay healthy for a full 16 game season. But that was the guideline I set when doing a projection in March. I'll be adjusting the ranking to reflect more cheatsheet thinking after the draft and mini-camp. If Harrison does stay healthy, though, and the Patriots don't do much to improve their ILB corps, a line of 65-26-1-1-2-9 may even be low.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

But what happens to Deon in the end? Does he win a super bowl? Does he make the pro bowl? I hate cliffhangers!!



Thanks for the thorough and entertaining response JB

 

[houndirish]

I'm a bit surprised Asante Samuel didn't make the DB list. I tend to favor safeties over corners but he had a heckuva season last year. I know his numbers spiked thanks to the lofty INT totals but his tackle numbers improved by 16 from '05 and weren't bad for a corner. I'm certainly not expecting 10 picks from the guy again but he's still playing in the same system and if anything New England's pass rush should be improved. I don't expect Samuel to finish top 15 again but I definitely like him top 30. I don't think 5 picks is unreasonable.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I'm a bit surprised Asante Samuel didn't make the DB list. I tend to favor safeties over corners but he had a heckuva season last year. I know his numbers spiked thanks to the lofty INT totals but his tackle numbers improved by 16 from '05 and weren't bad for a corner. I'm certainly not expecting 10 picks from the guy again but he's still playing in the same system and if anything New England's pass rush should be improved. I don't expect Samuel to finish top 15 again but I definitely like him top 30. I don't think 5 picks is unreasonable.

Samuel's 06 tackle numbers increased by nearly 35% (47 proj to 63). His increases in coverage stats were even more obscene. In a contract year.I projected 53 solos (well above his baseline), five INTs, and 17 PD. That left him in a huge tier of CBs between #15 and #40. I've never been particularly impressed with any part of Samuel's game. Aside from some Manning fellow, the list of QBs he victimized last year isn't impressive. I think he's much more likely to have a Deltha O'Neal like correction than a Champ Bailey like repeat performance. Just my opnion, though, and my track record with corners last year wasn't as good as I would've liked.

 

[radiohead417]

He's definitely overrated, but I think Ed Reed deserves a spot in the top 60.

I'd pump Brodney Poole higher too.

 

[bcr8f]

What do you think of Archuletta now?

 

[deadstick]

No Ken Hamlin??

 

[Jene Bramel]

He's definitely overrated, but I think Ed Reed deserves a spot in the top 60. I'd pump Brodney Poole higher too.

I'd be happy to put Reed in the top 60 if I could force myself to project more than 55 tackles for him. I'm not willing to project above six interceptions for him despite his past history. Owners who want to rely on his picks can have him. He's way too inconsistent for my liking in standard leagues -- which is what this projection is based on -- finishing with less than five points in this scoring system in twelve out of the 26 games he's played in this scheme. Again, I'd put him in the top 60 on a cheatsheet ranking but would want him only as a solid DB3-4 to use behind two consistent starters or on bye weeks.I'm struggling with Brodney Pool. Will he finish with statlines that look more like Eric Coleman's or Eugene Wilson's. He's better than Wilson, but may not be in quite as good a situation as Coleman has been in over the past two seasons. Pool finished with 13 tackles over the last four games filling in for Brian Russell, which projects to less than 60 for a full year. He's the best cover safety of the 3-4 Belichick crew, so he's likely to get some nice cover stats, but my bias on projecting those is pretty clear. Again, this isn't a cheatsheet ranking. Those guys with higher upside will be on the rank list for drafting once mini-camps and the draft start to settle the depth chart and suggest playing time and usage. Both Pool and Reed are higher upside guys. But to project them to finish in the top 30 statlines for 2007 is a stretch IMO. Buyer beware, or at least very cognizant of what kind of player you're getting.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What do you think of Archuletta now?

I think Archuleta will project into the top 40 DBs easily if he's Lovie's starting SS. The track record with the two working together is impressive. Until Lovie weighs in though and/or we see what the plan for Archuleta will be in camp, I'm leaving Mike Brown and Danieal Manning as the projected safeties.

 

[Jene Bramel]

No Ken Hamlin??

I won't project stats for Hamlin until he signs somewhere. His statlines could be wildly different if he were to land in DAL vs NO vs XXX team. These are projected full season statlines, not cheatsheets. They are meant as an exercise to consider how a player will perform. They don't reflect upside or playing time or likelihood of injury as yet.

 

[bcr8f]

What do you think of Archuletta now?

I think Archuleta will project into the top 40 DBs easily if he's Lovie's starting SS. The track record with the two working together is impressive. Until Lovie weighs in though and/or we see what the plan for Archuleta will be in camp, I'm leaving Mike Brown and Danieal Manning as the projected safeties.

Of course. I was just looking for an opinion until this shakes out. Clayton saying Lovie has wanted him since becoming HC in Chicago was impressive though.

 

[Beaumont]

He's definitely overrated, but I think Ed Reed deserves a spot in the top 60. I'd pump Brodney Poole higher too.

I'd be happy to put Reed in the top 60 if I could force myself to project more than 55 tackles for him. I'm not willing to project above six interceptions for him despite his past history. Owners who want to rely on his picks can have him. He's way too inconsistent for my liking in standard leagues -- which is what this projection is based on -- finishing with less than five points in this scoring system in twelve out of the 26 games he's played in this scheme. Again, I'd put him in the top 60 on a cheatsheet ranking but would want him only as a solid DB3-4 to use behind two consistent starters or on bye weeks.I'm struggling with Brodney Pool. Will he finish with statlines that look more like Eric Coleman's or Eugene Wilson's. He's better than Wilson, but may not be in quite as good a situation as Coleman has been in over the past two seasons. Pool finished with 13 tackles over the last four games filling in for Brian Russell, which projects to less than 60 for a full year. He's the best cover safety of the 3-4 Belichick crew, so he's likely to get some nice cover stats, but my bias on projecting those is pretty clear. Again, this isn't a cheatsheet ranking. Those guys with higher upside will be on the rank list for drafting once mini-camps and the draft start to settle the depth chart and suggest playing time and usage. Both Pool and Reed are higher upside guys. But to project them to finish in the top 30 statlines for 2007 is a stretch IMO. Buyer beware, or at least very cognizant of what kind of player you're getting.

Wasn't Pool playing a lot of CB with Leigh Bodden out?

 

[Jene Bramel]

He's definitely overrated, but I think Ed Reed deserves a spot in the top 60. I'd pump Brodney Poole higher too.

I'd be happy to put Reed in the top 60 if I could force myself to project more than 55 tackles for him. I'm not willing to project above six interceptions for him despite his past history. Owners who want to rely on his picks can have him. He's way too inconsistent for my liking in standard leagues -- which is what this projection is based on -- finishing with less than five points in this scoring system in twelve out of the 26 games he's played in this scheme. Again, I'd put him in the top 60 on a cheatsheet ranking but would want him only as a solid DB3-4 to use behind two consistent starters or on bye weeks.I'm struggling with Brodney Pool. Will he finish with statlines that look more like Eric Coleman's or Eugene Wilson's. He's better than Wilson, but may not be in quite as good a situation as Coleman has been in over the past two seasons. Pool finished with 13 tackles over the last four games filling in for Brian Russell, which projects to less than 60 for a full year. He's the best cover safety of the 3-4 Belichick crew, so he's likely to get some nice cover stats, but my bias on projecting those is pretty clear. Again, this isn't a cheatsheet ranking. Those guys with higher upside will be on the rank list for drafting once mini-camps and the draft start to settle the depth chart and suggest playing time and usage. Both Pool and Reed are higher upside guys. But to project them to finish in the top 30 statlines for 2007 is a stretch IMO. Buyer beware, or at least very cognizant of what kind of player you're getting.

Wasn't Pool playing a lot of CB with Leigh Bodden out?

Yes. But most of his time came at FS the last month of the year after Brian Russell's elbow infection. I think Ralph Brown got the corner snaps during that time. Pool should go back to safety with Russell in Seattle. If he's not used often near the LOS in 2007, he would've been a better IDP option at corner.

 

[kellumsboys]

Love the Jarrard Page projection. I've been scooping this guy off the WW this off-season.

Ten-year veteran strong safety Sammy Knight, a one-time Pro Bowl performer who ranks third in interceptions among active players, was released by the Kansas City Chiefs on Wednesday, ESPN.com has learned.who does this help the most ?Page or pollard ?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Love the Jarrard Page projection. I've been scooping this guy off the WW this off-season.

Ten-year veteran strong safety Sammy Knight, a one-time Pro Bowl performer who ranks third in interceptions among active players, was released by the Kansas City Chiefs on Wednesday, ESPN.com has learned.who does this help the most ?Page or pollard ? :IBTL:

This was expected. For the purposes of this projection, I had Page at SS and Wesley at FS.The ESPN story suggests it'll be Pollard who assumes the position, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was someone without inside knowledge of the situation looking at the depth chart on ESPN.com (and the Chiefs official web site) without regard for last season's on-field play. It was Page who got snaps in rotation with Knight last year not Pollard, who ended up carving a nice living as a special teams stud.The scouting report on both players reads nearly the same. Some suggest Pollard to be the better cover guy, others would rate Page as better. Both are solid inside the box.It's been generally felt that Pollard would assume the SS position with Page the FS long term. So if Wesley gets bumped from the lineup too it could get interesting. We'll see what the official word is tomorrow hopefully.

 

[kellumsboys]

(KFFL) David Elfin, of the Washington Times, reports Washington Redskins S Omar Stoutmire will compete for the starting safety position opposite S Sean Taylor .

what kind of projection would this give Stoutmire now ?

thanks

 

[Jene Bramel]

(KFFL) David Elfin, of the Washington Times, reports Washington Redskins S Omar Stoutmire will compete for the starting safety position opposite S Sean Taylor .what kind of projection would this give Stoutmire now ?thanks

Nothing special. Stoutmire's replacement level at best. With Fletcher in front gobbling up more tackles than Marshall did and Taylor likely being used in a similar role as he did in 2006 next to similarly weak SS, I don't think Stoutmire would project any better than a DB4.

 

[bcr8f]

(KFFL) David Elfin, of the Washington Times, reports Washington Redskins S Omar Stoutmire will compete for the starting safety position opposite S Sean Taylor .what kind of projection would this give Stoutmire now ?thanks

Nothing special. Stoutmire's replacement level at best. With Fletcher in front gobbling up more tackles than Marshall did and Taylor likely being used in a similar role as he did in 2006 next to similarly weak SS, I don't think Stoutmire would project any better than a DB4.

I would think a part time player at best. Jene any word on McIntosh? Do you think he'll see the field this year?

 

[Sidewinder16]

Jene any word on McIntosh? Do you think he'll see the field this year?

At the moment, all anyone can reasonably predict is that Lemar Marshall and McIntosh will have a TC battle for the WLB spot. I think McIntosh is the better LB, from a skills/athleticism standpoint, so it will almost certainly come down to how he's progressed within the system. If Gregg Williams trusts that McIntosh has a good handle on his defense then he'll lock up the WLB. Both Marshall and McIntosh have the versatility to play multiple LB positions, so the WLB "loser" should provide excellent depth across the field.

 

[Beaumont]

Jene any word on McIntosh? Do you think he'll see the field this year?

At the moment, all anyone can reasonably predict is that Lemar Marshall and McIntosh will have a TC battle for the WLB spot. I think McIntosh is the better LB, from a skills/athleticism standpoint, so it will almost certainly come down to how he's progressed within the system. If Gregg Williams trusts that McIntosh has a good handle on his defense then he'll lock up the WLB. Both Marshall and McIntosh have the versatility to play multiple LB positions, so the WLB "loser" should provide excellent depth across the field.

Didn't Marshall make all the defensive calls? Seems hard to sit him for a rook for extended periods ...

 

[Keg]

Jene any word on McIntosh? Do you think he'll see the field this year?

At the moment, all anyone can reasonably predict is that Lemar Marshall and McIntosh will have a TC battle for the WLB spot. I think McIntosh is the better LB, from a skills/athleticism standpoint, so it will almost certainly come down to how he's progressed within the system. If Gregg Williams trusts that McIntosh has a good handle on his defense then he'll lock up the WLB. Both Marshall and McIntosh have the versatility to play multiple LB positions, so the WLB "loser" should provide excellent depth across the field.

Didn't Marshall make all the defensive calls? Seems hard to sit him for a rook for extended periods ...

i know that fletcher is new to the team but one would have to think he could take playing calling on without much problems

 

[Sidewinder16]

Jene any word on McIntosh? Do you think he'll see the field this year?

At the moment, all anyone can reasonably predict is that Lemar Marshall and McIntosh will have a TC battle for the WLB spot. I think McIntosh is the better LB, from a skills/athleticism standpoint, so it will almost certainly come down to how he's progressed within the system. If Gregg Williams trusts that McIntosh has a good handle on his defense then he'll lock up the WLB. Both Marshall and McIntosh have the versatility to play multiple LB positions, so the WLB "loser" should provide excellent depth across the field.

Didn't Marshall make all the defensive calls? Seems hard to sit him for a rook for extended periods ...

i know that fletcher is new to the team but one would have to think he could take playing calling on without much problems

New to the team, but not new to the system. Fletcher should know the majority of plays and terminology and be able to take over play calling without a problem.Also, McIntosh is no longer a rook. Or shouldn't be at least (he did get significant PT the last few games, including a start), which is why I said that if he's got a good handle on the system by now the WLB should be his.

 

[kellumsboys]

if Michael Boulware (SS) -Sea. is once again the starting SS, where would he project on this list ?

he is a FA in one of my dynasty leagues (53 man rosters).

so is Jarrad Page.

is it time for me to cut bait with Pacman and try to replace him with one of these ?

 

[bcr8f]

if Michael Boulware (SS) -Sea. is once again the starting SS, where would he project on this list ?he is a FA in one of my dynasty leagues (53 man rosters).so is Jarrad Page.is it time for me to cut bait with Pacman and try to replace him with one of these ?

If found guilty in Vegas Pacman could be suspended in 2008 too.

 

[-OZ-]

if Michael Boulware (SS) -Sea. is once again the starting SS, where would he project on this list ?he is a FA in one of my dynasty leagues (53 man rosters).so is Jarrad Page.is it time for me to cut bait with Pacman and try to replace him with one of these ?

I'd prefer Boulware to Pac.

 

[Rozelle]

I'm concerened with Boulware, have a gut feeling he will be replaced by Mike Green, but intend to hang onto him in my dynasty league.

I beleive he will be a UFA in 2008 (can anyone confirm this?) and he should draw some interest as a SS, and could raise an eyebrow as a "will" in Cover-2.

 

[Jene Bramel]

if Michael Boulware (SS) -Sea. is once again the starting SS, where would he project on this list ?he is a FA in one of my dynasty leagues (53 man rosters).so is Jarrad Page.is it time for me to cut bait with Pacman and try to replace him with one of these ?

His situation isn't much different than it was during the second half of last year. Russell isn't great but he's a better tackler than Babineaux was and isn't far behind from a cover standpoint. He didn't have very good value in the boxscore even as a starter.Page is interesting. I think he'll start at SS if Wesley sticks, but the potential is there for the rug to be pulled out when/if Wesley goes and Pollard steps in and moves Page to FS. I think Page has Darren Sharper like value as a FS and both Eric Coleman and Kerry Rhodes had decent value in Herm Edwards' scheme in 2005.Page is the better player and the better value IMO, but carries some risk. Jones would have to carry a whole lot of value in your system for me to tread water with him for nearly two calendar years hoping he doesn't run into any more trouble.

 

[kellumsboys]

if Michael Boulware (SS) -Sea. is once again the starting SS, where would he project on this list ?he is a FA in one of my dynasty leagues (53 man rosters).so is Jarrad Page.is it time for me to cut bait with Pacman and try to replace him with one of these ?

His situation isn't much different than it was during the second half of last year. Russell isn't great but he's a better tackler than Babineaux was and isn't far behind from a cover standpoint. He didn't have very good value in the boxscore even as a starter.Page is interesting. I think he'll start at SS if Wesley sticks, but the potential is there for the rug to be pulled out when/if Wesley goes and Pollard steps in and moves Page to FS. I think Page has Darren Sharper like value as a FS and both Eric Coleman and Kerry Rhodes had decent value in Herm Edwards' scheme in 2005.Page is the better player and the better value IMO, but carries some risk. Jones would have to carry a whole lot of value in your system for me to tread water with him for nearly two calendar years hoping he doesn't run into any more trouble.

with return yardage, Pac was the #9 scoring DB in our league and we start 11 IDP.

 

[chook]

Dr. JB:

Tell me a story about how these guys are going to achieve career years (at least in the stats we care about):

Deon Grant

Yeremiah Bell

and why these position battles will turn out this way:

MIN: Dwight Smith over Greg Blue

SD: Bhawoh Jue over Clinton Hart

and lastly how exactly Rodney Harrison will stay healthy and play enough games to merit his rank.

PS Great Work

I'm no storyteller but pull up a carpet square and some chocolate milk and I'll give it a shot.
Deon gets new friends

Once upon a time Deon Grant was a Jacksonville Jaguar. Most people who watched him play appreciated his willingness in run support and coverage instincts. But his IDP owners always wondered why his statlines didn't match the scouting reports and they were sad. Then one day Deon became a Seattle Seahawk. When he got to his new home, he told the neighbors that he was a busy person at his last job, but didn't have any consistent responsibilities. One day he'd be playing near his linebacker buddies, the next his bosses would tell him to stay back with his safety friends. He told them he was sad that he didn't get many chances to tackle guys because his bigger buddies were so good. Deon thinks his new team is pretty good but can't help but notice that the guy who played this position before him got to knock the bad guys down a whole lot more than he did with his old friends while still getting a chance to catch the ball the other guys throw.

Deon was also very happy that he'll get to play with his new friend Brian, who moved in down the street a couple of days after Deon got to town. Deon knows Brian is a smart guy who likes to roam around behind everybody else, making sure everybody is in the right place and covering up when they do things wrong. Deon guesses that means he'll get to play closer to the action more this year and make this his best year ever.


THE END

I probably over-projected Yeremiah Bell, given that the Dolphin scheme may give him less tackling opportunity if it moves more toward a Capers 3-4. Most of Bell's decent ranking comes from my projection that his knack for the big play will continue this year. He's proven that he's one of the most likely to generate big play and coverage stats out of the 65-70 solo tackle safety group -- five sacks, eight FF/FR, an INT, and 15 passes defended in his last two seasons of which he was mostly a part time defender. He's probably no Troy Polamalu, though, so there's plenty of risk in relying on Bell to generate those big plays in this defensive scheme.

I like Greg Blue, too. For now, I'm basing my assumption on an off-season comment HC Brad Childress made saying that Smith was the starter "as far as he (Childress) was concerned." Not a ringing endorsement for sure, but it's out there.

Same thing with Jue. Just speculation. Most reports suggested that Jue was the coaches favorite last year over Hart (and even Kiel -- no pun intended). He was apparently at the top of the depth chart early last year and may not have been fully recovered from a knee surgery last off-season. I can't imagine that the Chargers don't draft somebody to hopefully take over at SS sooner than later, so Jue is a poor bet to play a 16 game season at SS. I may also have over-projected the SD safety position again. I remember the statlines Kiel had in 2004 and 2005 when healthy and can't help myself from projecting those DB2 numbers each year. That line is probably going to be easier to attain this year with the loss of Donnie Edwards' tackles in coverage and downfield pursuit.

Rodney Harrison is pretty unlikely to stay healthy for a full 16 game season. But that was the guideline I set when doing a projection in March. I'll be adjusting the ranking to reflect more cheatsheet thinking after the draft and mini-camp. If Harrison does stay healthy, though, and the Patriots don't do much to improve their ILB corps, a line of 65-26-1-1-2-9 may even be low.

Hey Jene, you still sold on Grant with your #17 ranking of him? Bloom didn't even rank the guy while JP put him in at #38; he was #97 in the DB projections also. Nothing's changed in regards to his situation since you posted this, so I'm just wondering why the others don't seem to think your story is true. And it is a lovely story.

 

[lord_helmet]

Dr. JB:

Tell me a story about how these guys are going to achieve career years (at least in the stats we care about):

Deon Grant

Yeremiah Bell

and why these position battles will turn out this way:

MIN: Dwight Smith over Greg Blue

SD: Bhawoh Jue over Clinton Hart

and lastly how exactly Rodney Harrison will stay healthy and play enough games to merit his rank.

PS Great Work

I'm no storyteller but pull up a carpet square and some chocolate milk and I'll give it a shot.
Deon gets new friends

Once upon a time Deon Grant was a Jacksonville Jaguar. Most people who watched him play appreciated his willingness in run support and coverage instincts. But his IDP owners always wondered why his statlines didn't match the scouting reports and they were sad. Then one day Deon became a Seattle Seahawk. When he got to his new home, he told the neighbors that he was a busy person at his last job, but didn't have any consistent responsibilities. One day he'd be playing near his linebacker buddies, the next his bosses would tell him to stay back with his safety friends. He told them he was sad that he didn't get many chances to tackle guys because his bigger buddies were so good. Deon thinks his new team is pretty good but can't help but notice that the guy who played this position before him got to knock the bad guys down a whole lot more than he did with his old friends while still getting a chance to catch the ball the other guys throw.

Deon was also very happy that he'll get to play with his new friend Brian, who moved in down the street a couple of days after Deon got to town. Deon knows Brian is a smart guy who likes to roam around behind everybody else, making sure everybody is in the right place and covering up when they do things wrong. Deon guesses that means he'll get to play closer to the action more this year and make this his best year ever.


THE END

I probably over-projected Yeremiah Bell, given that the Dolphin scheme may give him less tackling opportunity if it moves more toward a Capers 3-4. Most of Bell's decent ranking comes from my projection that his knack for the big play will continue this year. He's proven that he's one of the most likely to generate big play and coverage stats out of the 65-70 solo tackle safety group -- five sacks, eight FF/FR, an INT, and 15 passes defended in his last two seasons of which he was mostly a part time defender. He's probably no Troy Polamalu, though, so there's plenty of risk in relying on Bell to generate those big plays in this defensive scheme.

I like Greg Blue, too. For now, I'm basing my assumption on an off-season comment HC Brad Childress made saying that Smith was the starter "as far as he (Childress) was concerned." Not a ringing endorsement for sure, but it's out there.

Same thing with Jue. Just speculation. Most reports suggested that Jue was the coaches favorite last year over Hart (and even Kiel -- no pun intended). He was apparently at the top of the depth chart early last year and may not have been fully recovered from a knee surgery last off-season. I can't imagine that the Chargers don't draft somebody to hopefully take over at SS sooner than later, so Jue is a poor bet to play a 16 game season at SS. I may also have over-projected the SD safety position again. I remember the statlines Kiel had in 2004 and 2005 when healthy and can't help myself from projecting those DB2 numbers each year. That line is probably going to be easier to attain this year with the loss of Donnie Edwards' tackles in coverage and downfield pursuit.

Rodney Harrison is pretty unlikely to stay healthy for a full 16 game season. But that was the guideline I set when doing a projection in March. I'll be adjusting the ranking to reflect more cheatsheet thinking after the draft and mini-camp. If Harrison does stay healthy, though, and the Patriots don't do much to improve their ILB corps, a line of 65-26-1-1-2-9 may even be low.

Hey Jene, you still sold on Grant with your #17 ranking of him? Bloom didn't even rank the guy while JP put him in at #38; he was #97 in the DB projections also. Nothing's changed in regards to his situation since you posted this, so I'm just wondering why the others don't seem to think your story is true. And it is a lovely story.

 

[Zuma]

zealot scoring put richard marshall at #9 last year...

admittedly, i don't follow this stuff real hard core, but you guys have him ranked overall at 27, bloom is high at 14 and the rude dude has him at 33....

have i missed something that would drop him down out of the top 20 overall...

tia

 

[Jene Bramel]

zealot scoring put richard marshall at #9 last year...admittedly, i don't follow this stuff real hard core, but you guys have him ranked overall at 27, bloom is high at 14 and the rude dude has him at 33....have i missed something that would drop him down out of the top 20 overall...tia

Everything I've read suggests he'll remain the 3rd corner for now. While he did well last year, it's hard to feel comfortable projecting those kind of numbers again for someone who may not play every down and no longer has the "rookie corner" production bump.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Dr. JB:

Tell me a story about how these guys are going to achieve career years (at least in the stats we care about):

Deon Grant

Yeremiah Bell

and why these position battles will turn out this way:

MIN: Dwight Smith over Greg Blue

SD: Bhawoh Jue over Clinton Hart

and lastly how exactly Rodney Harrison will stay healthy and play enough games to merit his rank.

PS Great Work

I'm no storyteller but pull up a carpet square and some chocolate milk and I'll give it a shot.
Deon gets new friends

Once upon a time Deon Grant was a Jacksonville Jaguar. Most people who watched him play appreciated his willingness in run support and coverage instincts. But his IDP owners always wondered why his statlines didn't match the scouting reports and they were sad. Then one day Deon became a Seattle Seahawk. When he got to his new home, he told the neighbors that he was a busy person at his last job, but didn't have any consistent responsibilities. One day he'd be playing near his linebacker buddies, the next his bosses would tell him to stay back with his safety friends. He told them he was sad that he didn't get many chances to tackle guys because his bigger buddies were so good. Deon thinks his new team is pretty good but can't help but notice that the guy who played this position before him got to knock the bad guys down a whole lot more than he did with his old friends while still getting a chance to catch the ball the other guys throw.

Deon was also very happy that he'll get to play with his new friend Brian, who moved in down the street a couple of days after Deon got to town. Deon knows Brian is a smart guy who likes to roam around behind everybody else, making sure everybody is in the right place and covering up when they do things wrong. Deon guesses that means he'll get to play closer to the action more this year and make this his best year ever.


THE END

I probably over-projected Yeremiah Bell, given that the Dolphin scheme may give him less tackling opportunity if it moves more toward a Capers 3-4. Most of Bell's decent ranking comes from my projection that his knack for the big play will continue this year. He's proven that he's one of the most likely to generate big play and coverage stats out of the 65-70 solo tackle safety group -- five sacks, eight FF/FR, an INT, and 15 passes defended in his last two seasons of which he was mostly a part time defender. He's probably no Troy Polamalu, though, so there's plenty of risk in relying on Bell to generate those big plays in this defensive scheme.

I like Greg Blue, too. For now, I'm basing my assumption on an off-season comment HC Brad Childress made saying that Smith was the starter "as far as he (Childress) was concerned." Not a ringing endorsement for sure, but it's out there.

Same thing with Jue. Just speculation. Most reports suggested that Jue was the coaches favorite last year over Hart (and even Kiel -- no pun intended). He was apparently at the top of the depth chart early last year and may not have been fully recovered from a knee surgery last off-season. I can't imagine that the Chargers don't draft somebody to hopefully take over at SS sooner than later, so Jue is a poor bet to play a 16 game season at SS. I may also have over-projected the SD safety position again. I remember the statlines Kiel had in 2004 and 2005 when healthy and can't help myself from projecting those DB2 numbers each year. That line is probably going to be easier to attain this year with the loss of Donnie Edwards' tackles in coverage and downfield pursuit.

Rodney Harrison is pretty unlikely to stay healthy for a full 16 game season. But that was the guideline I set when doing a projection in March. I'll be adjusting the ranking to reflect more cheatsheet thinking after the draft and mini-camp. If Harrison does stay healthy, though, and the Patriots don't do much to improve their ILB corps, a line of 65-26-1-1-2-9 may even be low.

Hey Jene, you still sold on Grant with your #17 ranking of him? Bloom didn't even rank the guy while JP put him in at #38; he was #97 in the DB projections also. Nothing's changed in regards to his situation since you posted this, so I'm just wondering why the others don't seem to think your story is true. And it is a lovely story.

I think he'll play an every down role and easily outproduce the Russell/Boulware/Green/Babineaux group. One of the Seattle safeties has had a legit shot at 70-75 solos in recent seasons. Grant has averaged 3 INT and 10 passes defended. That's top 25 potential. I'd still take him over quite a few of the others ranked ahead of him in the consensus list until I hear/see that he'll play a primary deep coverage role. Since the Seahawks haven't done that with either safety in years, I think he'll be excellent value as a guy it appears you can draft as a DB3-4.