I looked into this a little.
First I totally ignored all teams except for the final 250. Then I looked back at the last three weeks. Here are the averages by position:
QB - 89
RB - 145
WR - 159
FLX - 52
PK - 43
TD - 33
In other words, the average still-live team scored 89 points from their QBs in the last three weeks, 145 from their RBs, and so on.
Now, here's how the "winner" (i.e. the guy with the highest point total for weeks 11-13) stood in relation to those averages:
AVG Diff---------------------QB 89 94 +5RB 145 156 +11WR 159 178 +19TE 53 76 +23FLX 52 45 -7PK 43 55 +12TD 33 32 -1--------------------- +62And the second place finisher:
Code:
AVG Diff---------------------QB 89 94 +5RB 145 149 +4WR 159 168 +9TE 53 76 +23FLX 52 65 +13PK 43 49 +6TD 33 34 +1--------------------- +61
And third:
Code:
AVG Diff---------------------QB 89 91 +2RB 145 152 +7WR 159 180 +21TE 53 76 +23FLX 52 54 +2PK 43 42 -1TD 33 34 +1--------------------- +55
I'm sure people will look at this and see different things. Here is my take:All three got huge contributions from the TE position, and in all three cases, it was Gonzo and Keller. I think the lesson here isn't that TE is necessarily going to be the biggest determining factor, it's that some player with a fairly low ownership percentage will get really hot, and
that guy (Gonzo in this case) will be the determining factor. It could be Aaron Rodgers or David Garrard or McNabb or Ryan Grant or Forte or Marshawn Lynch or Fitzgerald or Boldin or Santonio Holmes or Witten or Cooley or any number of other guys.
Xenopax speculated that it would come down to WRs. I think it'll come down to WRs and TEs, unless Slaton has a bad three-week stretch, in which case it'll come down to RBs, TEs, and WRs. If Warner has a bad three-week stretch, QBs will play a role as well.
But I don't think kicker and defense are going to the prime differentiators, because there's simply a limit on how crazy they can go. If Neil Rackers goes off, he earns you an extra 20 points more than Prater over three weeks. If Adrian Peterson goes off, he could earn you 50 or 60 points more than Steve Slaton.