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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
- Start date
I was going to orginally add that this wasn't my primary porn computer. However it is a Vista computer which is probably worse.I wasn't having that problem earlier so I was wondering if something trying to load on the page that was recently added might be causing an issue.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Little late to this party, but I also have a unique top 5 players (in terms of price)
Tomlinson - $60
Portis - $33
Megatron - $25
Holmes - $24
Romo - $23
Tomlinson - $60
Portis - $33
Megatron - $25
Holmes - $24
Romo - $23
Lucky Lefty
Footballguy
This entry is still alive.
1 2
-------------------------------------------
Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10
Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70
Eli Manning $15 15.70 31.00
Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10
Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05
Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80
DeAngelo Williams $15 9.50 3.00
Maurice Morris $11 3.10 0.00
Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40
Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00
Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90
Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60
Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00
Nate Burleson $18 17.00 0.00
Ben Utecht $5 4.00 0.00
Mike Nugent $1 2.00 0.00
Joe Nedney $1 9.00 17.00
Rian Lindell $1 12.00 10.00
Matt Prater $1 13.00 10.00
Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00
Philadelphia Eagles $3 4.00 10.00
San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00 13.00
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL 130.55 161.80
CUTOFF 112.85 132.60
How much longer do I have left?
1 2
-------------------------------------------
Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10
Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70
Eli Manning $15 15.70 31.00
Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10
Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05
Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80
DeAngelo Williams $15 9.50 3.00
Maurice Morris $11 3.10 0.00
Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40
Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00
Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90
Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60
Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00
Nate Burleson $18 17.00 0.00
Ben Utecht $5 4.00 0.00
Mike Nugent $1 2.00 0.00
Joe Nedney $1 9.00 17.00
Rian Lindell $1 12.00 10.00
Matt Prater $1 13.00 10.00
Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00
Philadelphia Eagles $3 4.00 10.00
San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00 13.00
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL 130.55 161.80
CUTOFF 112.85 132.60
How much longer do I have left?
H8fulHuck
Footballguy
With 5 quarterbacks and 4 receivers (one out for the year)...it ain't pretty.This entry is still alive.
1 2
-------------------------------------------
Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10
Drew Brees $23 33.95 15.70
Eli Manning $15 15.70 31.00
Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10
Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05
Matt Forte $20 21.60 12.80
DeAngelo Williams $15 9.50 3.00
Maurice Morris $11 3.10 0.00
Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40
Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00
Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90
Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60
Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00
Nate Burleson $18 17.00 0.00
Ben Utecht $5 4.00 0.00
Mike Nugent $1 2.00 0.00
Joe Nedney $1 9.00 17.00
Rian Lindell $1 12.00 10.00
Matt Prater $1 13.00 10.00
Minnesota Vikings $8 0.00 6.00
Philadelphia Eagles $3 4.00 10.00
San Francisco 49ers $1 3.00 13.00
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL 130.55 161.80
CUTOFF 112.85 132.60
How much longer do I have left?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Been a rocky road so far, but my crew is still in it:
Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10
Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05
Matt Ryan $4 13.85 6.90
LaDainian Tomlinson $60 12.70 5.00
Maurice Jones-Drew $34 7.00 11.70
Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40
Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00
Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00
Larry Fitzgerald $35 12.10 21.30
Santana Moss $14 14.70 32.10
Bernard Berrian $13 6.80 0.00
Kevin Walter $6 13.10 0.00
Steve Smith $5 3.50 3.90
Derek Hagan $4 0.00 8.10
Steve Breaston $1 8.40 3.20
Todd Heap $15 2.00 0.00
Dustin Keller $2 0.00 3.40
Phil Dawson $3 5.00 8.00
Matt Prater $1 13.00 10.00
San Diego Chargers $8 3.00 9.00
Tennessee Titans $3 13.00 11.00
Detroit Lions $1 1.00 5.00
Guess that makes my big 5: LT2, LFitz, MJD, Romo and... Heap
The Turk is merciless though - he even Turked himself!!
-QG
Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10
Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05
Matt Ryan $4 13.85 6.90
LaDainian Tomlinson $60 12.70 5.00
Maurice Jones-Drew $34 7.00 11.70
Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40
Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00
Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00
Larry Fitzgerald $35 12.10 21.30
Santana Moss $14 14.70 32.10
Bernard Berrian $13 6.80 0.00
Kevin Walter $6 13.10 0.00
Steve Smith $5 3.50 3.90
Derek Hagan $4 0.00 8.10
Steve Breaston $1 8.40 3.20
Todd Heap $15 2.00 0.00
Dustin Keller $2 0.00 3.40
Phil Dawson $3 5.00 8.00
Matt Prater $1 13.00 10.00
San Diego Chargers $8 3.00 9.00
Tennessee Titans $3 13.00 11.00
Detroit Lions $1 1.00 5.00
Guess that makes my big 5: LT2, LFitz, MJD, Romo and... Heap
The Turk is merciless though - he even Turked himself!!
-QG
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
To what extent are the projections heavily weighted by YTD results?My rank: I just missed the top 1000 :(
PatrickT
Footballguy
Too much porn? Is there such a thing?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Was coming to ask the same Q... I've got the #2 and #4 QB YTD (or close to there), but have a relatively low QB power rating.
tomarken
Footballguy
Dunno, but my team did better in Week 2 (~222 pts) than it did in Week 1 (~189 pts) and yet my power ranking dropped 69 spots.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
Is that a PCU quote?Here's the deal. Go defenses early and often. Kickers. You only need one of them. Don't bother spending only going with 8 D's and 2 K's. Kickers aren't really necessary....
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
You've got to anticipate this things. I personally assign a natural disaster risk quotient to each game when doing my projections.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000
tomarken
Footballguy
I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000
bonesman
Footballguy
585My rank: I just missed the top 1000
Short Corner
Footballguy
Did I miss the sort function?I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000
PatrickT
Footballguy
Did you miss the search function in your browser?Did I miss the sort function?I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000
ctriopelle
Footballguy
About 1/2 second...then again it's easy to find when you're in the top 15!Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000
Looks like the rankings could be actually hurt by YTD results, as I scored big this week and dropped 5 spots, even while pushing some byes behind me (giving me unexpected forward benefit). Reason I say this is that unless the top 200 forward re-adjusts to expect a different annual output (due to becoming the starter for example), a player's big week just takes that many points out of the projected annual total. Since I would expect the annual output for players is a lot more predictable than specific week by week numbers, this would be a reasonable forward planning method.GREAT new query Doug, you're finding new ways for me to waste time every day!
apalmer
Footballguy
Thanks, Turk. Dropped me down to #5 (I presume because of LT's dropping value) and got the #1 onus off my back. This is much more comfortable.
apalmer
Footballguy
On your browser menu line, click "Edit" then "find". Put your team # in the box.Did I miss the sort function?I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?To what extent are the projections heavily weighted by YTD results?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000 :(
Short Corner
Footballguy
:( Apparently. #948 here.Did you miss the search function in your browser?Did I miss the sort function?I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000 :(
Thanks BTW, never tried that before.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Thanks....the innerwebs are getting cooler everyday.On your browser menu line, click "Edit" then "find". Put your team # in the box.Did I miss the sort function?I would guess about two seconds. You're not actually visually scanning the list for your team, are you?Ok, how long did it take you to find your team on there?
My rank: I just missed the top 1000 :(
Random
Footballguy
Seriously? The top team's running backs are:Jonathan Stewart
DeAngelo Williams
Chris Johnson
Ricky Williams
Ray Rice
Steve Slaton
Good QB's and WR's but that running back core seems pretty weak for the top team.
apalmer
Footballguy
Doug will probably give a better answer, but I'm guessing YTD has little effect unless it results in upgrading the value of your player. For example, YTD has bumped Willie Parker up a lot from where he was, so teams with him will show a rise. On the other hand, even though Fargas had a good game and therefore has done well on YTD, his injury drops his future value so his YTD is irrelevant. My team score went up from Week 1 to Week 2, but that was counterbalanced by LT's toe problems. His value dropped and my power ranking dropped. YTD for some 1 week wonders can generate high weekly scores, but isn't likely to improve your power ranking because they haven't convinced the guys doing the rankings that they're for real.Dunno, but my team did better in Week 2 (~222 pts) than it did in Week 1 (~189 pts) and yet my power ranking dropped 69 spots.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Pretty decent in a best-ball format
bollocks28
Footballguy
9558 
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Totally agreed. has his bases covered with quantity and decent quality. Also has a powerful and deep WR group that should put up 3-4 big numbers every week. Nice thing about best ball is you don't have to know which player is going to go off, just that you have some that do every week. This team looks tough!Great. Now I'm alone at #1. The kiss of death...
164
I think getting 2 rbs bye weeks out of the way and getting S. Smith back has helped me move up. Owning K. Warner has a lot to do with that also. 
tomarken
Footballguy
I'm gonna respectfully disagree - the WR's a powerful, but not deep. I think the RB corps will be the death of this team. Week 9 will be especially brutal.Totally agreed. has his bases covered with quantity and decent quality. Also has a powerful and deep WR group that should put up 3-4 big numbers every week. Nice thing about best ball is you don't have to know which player is going to go off, just that you have some that do every week. This team looks tough!
Code:
This entry is still alive. 1 2 -------------------------------------------Tony Romo $23 20.90 32.10 Jay Cutler $14 27.85 41.10 Kurt Warner $5 15.45 36.05 Jonathan Stewart $21 5.30 19.70 DeAngelo Williams $15 9.50 3.00 Chris Johnson $14 20.20 13.10 Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40 Ray Rice $4 9.80 0.00 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 Jerricho Cotchery $23 17.00 3.00 Steve Smith $23 0.00 0.00 Kevin Walter $6 13.10 0.00 Kellen Winslow Jr $28 18.20 16.00 Ben Utecht $5 4.00 0.00 Anthony Fasano $3 26.40 0.00 Nate Kaeding $4 6.00 13.00 Kris Brown $2 6.00 0.00 Jason Hanson $1 3.00 17.00 Detroit Lions $1 1.00 5.00 Atlanta Falcons $1 5.00 4.00 -------------------------------------------TOTAL 161.25 189.80 CUTOFF 112.85 132.60ctriopelle
Footballguy
Didn't study his byes, but this could definitely be an issue. I also didn't look long enough at the WR quantity either, but his top 4 are probably as good as any. Not many teams went with that kind of WR quality 4 deep, which is what my original observation focused on. Having only total 5 is pretty dangerous though, with injuries/byes. I would normally expect decent scoring out of his RB's though just from the fact that he has a lot of them with good opportunity. As long as his WR's are fairly consistent (and that is a concern with the short list), this team should score a lot of points.
perry147
Footballguy
Mine is below. I had the same idea of getting a good set of WRs.QB - Jay Cutler - 14 QB - Kurt Warner - 5 RB - Joseph Addai - 50 RB - Michael Turner - 28 RB - Thomas Jones - 21 RB - Maurice Morris - 11 RB - Steve Slaton - 1 WR - Terrell Owens - 36 WR - Marques Colston - 30 WR - Brandon Marshall - 23 WR - David Patten - 5 WR - Devery Henderson - 2 WR - Mark Bradley - 1 WR - Miles Austin - 1 WR - Craig Davis - 1 TE - Heath Miller - 13 TE - Chris Baker - 1 PK - Jason Hanson - 1 PK - Matt Prater - 1 TD - Arizona Cardinals - 3 TD - Detroit Lions - 1 TD - Miami Dolphins - 1
apalmer
Footballguy
Better you than me.
Nope, I'm not sure I can give a better answer than that.Your contest team's previous week scores don't directly figure into the power rankings at all. The power rankings are based purely on the forward projections that are the work of Bob Henry and David Dodds. They do update them each week to take into account injuries (Colston), injuries to teammates (R Moss), general team situations (Marshall), and guys simply playing better (Parker) or worse (Derek Anderson) than anticipated.
So if you scored a ton of points but dropped in the rankings (and keep in mind also that, given how many teams there are and closely bunched the rankings are, a movement of +/-70 really means almost nothing), it could be due to any one of the following:
1. you had players who had big weeks but who Dodds/Henry don't necessarily expect to continue to produce at that level.
2. if you don't own Steve Smith, you might simply have gotten passed by a bunch of Steve Smith owners. Remember, the current week's projections are double-weighted, so that would have deflated the rankings of Smith owners last week.
3. similar to #2, if you don't own many Ravens or Texans, you might have gotten passed by a few teams who do.
It's a long season and when you want to be #1 is in December not September.apalmer said:Better you than me.
apalmer
Footballguy
uhhhh, yeah, that's what we were saying.It's a long season and when you want to be #1 is in December not September.apalmer said:Better you than me.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
My comment about YTD results wasn't directed at our team's YTD results, but towards how the forward projections for most players work. Would it be reasonable to say that for a player who was predicted to score 300 FP for the year (18.75/gm), who scored 30 points in game 1 and 20 points in game 2, would only be expected to score 250 more points for the year? I would suspect that you guys are generally pretty accurate at predicting the annual output for a player (assuming no injuries or significant outside influences). As long as a players situation remains basically unchanged a couple of big weeks could actually lessen the expected output slightly over the rest of the season, since they would tend to make up for their big weeks with corresponding not so big weeks.Maybe I'm all wet with this methodology, but it seemed like a possible explanation for some of the shifting.Doug Drinen said:
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Not to sidetrack, but it looks like we'll be getting projected cutoff over at The Fantasy Star in the next week or so, ctriopelle and I have been working on a way to do this efficiently and we think we may have done it...
apalmer
Footballguy
Not to sidetrack, but it looks like we'll be getting projected cutoff over at The Fantasy Star in the next week or so, ctriopelle and I have been working on a way to do this efficiently and we think we may have done it...
I went wr heavy as well. Wayne, Marshall, S. Smith, S. Moss, and DeSean. I think rb may be my downfall.
With Stewart and Williams off the same week, his RB options are going to be pretty depleted that week, particularly if Brown takes over as almost full timerunning back and Williams just get a couple of series a game.
puckalicious
Footballguy
> 5000. Still alive after week 2 but I smell an early exit again this year. I'm glad I don't play in any auction leagues because I SUCK at this. No depth at RB or QB, but I do love my WR's.
Code:
This entry is still alive. 1 2 -------------------------------------------David Garrard $14 14.95 10.45 Matt Schaub $13 20.50 0.00 Jeff Garcia $8 16.15 0.00 Clinton Portis $33 8.40 22.90 Willie Parker $23 31.80 10.50 Kenny Watson $9 2.60 1.40 Ricky Williams $8 5.90 3.40 Leon Washington $7 3.60 7.00 Steve Slaton $1 6.40 0.00 Marques Colston $30 5.60 0.00 Calvin Johnson $25 17.70 30.90 Brandon Marshall $23 0.00 40.60 Vincent Jackson $11 13.70 13.30 James Hardy $4 0.00 9.20 Mark Bradley $1 0.00 0.00 L.J. Smith $12 17.40 2.50 Kevin Boss $9 0.00 0.00 Dustin Keller $2 0.00 3.40 Nick Folk $5 4.00 16.00 Lawrence Tynes $2 0.00 0.00 Jacksonville Jaguars $5 5.00 5.00 New England Patriots $5 6.00 4.00 -------------------------------------------TOTAL 131.50 162.25 CUTOFF 112.85 132.60tomarken
Footballguy
Care to explain, or is it a secret?Not to sidetrack, but it looks like we'll be getting projected cutoff over at The Fantasy Star in the next week or so, ctriopelle and I have been working on a way to do this efficiently and we think we may have done it...
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
No secret, right now when you visit your team page it updates the scores for your team etc... The biggest hurdle (aside from not getting the data from FBG) I was facing was the processing power needed to handle 500+ teams and growing was starting to take in excess of 5 minutes when it was all said and done, so I could never realistically get all the teams totals unless each team visited its page every week (my host would eventually boot me for doing that a couple times a day). If we had all the numbers, we could at least get a rough guess..I've provided a live CSV export of all the teams and the scoring for all the players in my DB.. We are looking at about 500+ teams now, so at the very least we have something to go off of and ctriopelle can do his voodoo excel stat magic and get a projected cutoff.Care to explain, or is it a secret?Not to sidetrack, but it looks like we'll be getting projected cutoff over at The Fantasy Star in the next week or so, ctriopelle and I have been working on a way to do this efficiently and we think we may have done it...
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Still a fair amount of work to be done, then I want to test the prediction on the cutoffs from prior weeks. I just want to put some math behind my gut feel for the cut each week, and between OC's database and a rather complicated excel spreadsheet, I think I may have a method. If it works, I will also be looking forward to attempting nearly live MNF cut adjustments. I don't know if we will get to the point of that being available directly on his web page (due to web resource concerns), but I intend to have a working spreadsheet open during the games and posting to this thread. I don't get home until roughly halftime on Monday nights, and unless Da Bearsss are playing and I DVR the game, I should be jumping right in to see how things are looking.No promises yet, but trust me that I want to get this up and running!Care to explain, or is it a secret?Not to sidetrack, but it looks like we'll be getting projected cutoff over at The Fantasy Star in the next week or so, ctriopelle and I have been working on a way to do this efficiently and we think we may have done it...
HellToupee
Footballguy
power rank 852 for what its worth
