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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
- Start date
ctriopelle
Footballguy
looks like the expected cut is about 170.5. apparently the remaining players aren't expected to have much impact.
dirty_martini
Footballguy
Edit: I recalculated and came up with 171.05
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
162 + Colston - 11 + Crosby - 10.
Stunned.
I would estimate a 14.379% survival rate in 1000 simulations of tonight's game.
Stunned.
I would estimate a 14.379% survival rate in 1000 simulations of tonight's game.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Miscounted. 171 and done, 53%. Need a low scoring night!
181 + Shockey (-8)
Thank you, Carolina:
Delhomme - 28.55
D. Williams - 19.00
Steve Smith - 24.80
Used 9 times - K. Walter
Used 8 times - Steve Smith, Holmes
Used 7 times - MJD, DeAngelo Williams, Shockey, Marshall
Used 6 times - Chris Johnson, Slaton
Used 5 times - Cutler, Warner, Utecht
Thank you, Carolina:
Delhomme - 28.55
D. Williams - 19.00
Steve Smith - 24.80
Used 9 times - K. Walter
Used 8 times - Steve Smith, Holmes
Used 7 times - MJD, DeAngelo Williams, Shockey, Marshall
Used 6 times - Chris Johnson, Slaton
Used 5 times - Cutler, Warner, Utecht
Jayrod
Footballguy
After further review (and Dodds simulator run) I have about a 20% chance of moving on.I've gotten the scores I would need out of Brees/Shockey 4 times so far this year. Brees did it himself with 34.7 in week 6 and 35.05 in week 4. But with Shockey contributing, Weeks 1 & 3 I would have made it. However, I'm afraid that such a score from Brees might move the cut line more than expected.Problem is, they weren't playing the Packers all those weeks and Shockey hasn't done much since getting hurt in week 4. 20% sounds about right. I've got a chance, but its not likely.Jayrod said:
del mar
Footballguy
Tonight's players and the number of live teams who own them:
New Orleans : Brees 283, Bush 31, McAllister 15, Thomas 14, Colston 122, Henderson 90, Meachem 76, Patten 33, Shockey 55, Mehlhaff 17, Saints Defense 152
Green Bay : Rodgers 34, Grant 69, B Jackson 1, Driver 94, Jennings 62, J Jones 12, Nelson 1, Lee 55, Crosby 116, Packers Defense 71
(Apologies if I missed anyone.)
If there is a big jump in the cut line it will likely come from Brees. Of his 283 owners, 228 also have Warner who had only 21.85 points yesterday. Brees has topped that number six out of ten games with five of those games over 30 points. I don't know any practical way to figure out whether those 228 owners also have other QBs who may have done better than Warner nor can I figure out a practical way to find out how many of those 228 with the potential for big improvement are currently below the cut line.
Good luck everyone.
New Orleans : Brees 283, Bush 31, McAllister 15, Thomas 14, Colston 122, Henderson 90, Meachem 76, Patten 33, Shockey 55, Mehlhaff 17, Saints Defense 152
Green Bay : Rodgers 34, Grant 69, B Jackson 1, Driver 94, Jennings 62, J Jones 12, Nelson 1, Lee 55, Crosby 116, Packers Defense 71
(Apologies if I missed anyone.)
If there is a big jump in the cut line it will likely come from Brees. Of his 283 owners, 228 also have Warner who had only 21.85 points yesterday. Brees has topped that number six out of ten games with five of those games over 30 points. I don't know any practical way to figure out whether those 228 owners also have other QBs who may have done better than Warner nor can I figure out a practical way to find out how many of those 228 with the potential for big improvement are currently below the cut line.
Good luck everyone.
dbc925
Footballguy
Yes
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
probably done this week unless Brees goes ballistic. It was a good run.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
458. Team 103293 | 65.3 | 172 | 172 172 172 172 172 172
all 172 cuz I'm all done - how do I tell from the sim what the actual cut is right now? Someone I don't feel 65.3% safe like the sim says...
all 172 cuz I'm all done - how do I tell from the sim what the actual cut is right now? Someone I don't feel 65.3% safe like the sim says...
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
Sorry I think I see now that 168 ish is the pre MNF cut. I didn't realize the FS # was in agreement with the official DD one.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
The top line of the sim page lists the cut lines:
Code:
-------- Percentiles -------- Team Surv% AvScore MAX 80 60 40 20 MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------> 183 173 171 170 169 167Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
Thanks Frank! I could have looked at the sim 1000 times and missed that important piece of info.
Bamboo Bill
Footballguy
Had my highest score of the year this week.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
That isnt what the number means; its what CTR projects the cut to be through the games that have been played. The number will rise after tonight's game.FWIW, Drinen's actual number through SNF is 167.55.
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
Not really, imo:GarrardSchaubWarnerMBIIILBJTurnerFelix JonesRicky WilliamsClaytonGinnMEGATRONRiceWalterDanielsKellerZach MillerBironasKaedingPraterBufNOTennI'm marvelling at how high these scores are. I understand that a 50% cut is deep, but these teams advancing have to be all-star teams hitting on all cylinders.to those who remain.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
FS Database is up to 171.5 just before the GB interception and the following NO TD...
Scarpaggio
Footballguy
I need another TD from Brees. The latest estimated cut is 171.5 and I'm at 171.45 .... Crosby and Colston aren't helping my cause.
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
I'd ignore my decimal points at this stage, I could be off by 1-2 points either way (I do post it to keep the reported number honest). If you are near the cut I am posting (on either side), you have reason to be worried...
Jayrod
Footballguy
I don't think 100 pts from Brees could even move the cut that high. 172-173 isn't looking too safe anymore, though.I'm one of the lucky Brees owners moving from under the cut to over it. Was at 160, but Shockey and Brees have now boosted me up to about 180.
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Scarpaggio
Footballguy
well that long TD can only help me. Lets hope its enough. The scores haven't been updated yet.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
up to 174.8....looks like brees is chugging things right along...
dbc925
Footballguy
Stupid Brees. My only hope at this point is that your numbers are a point and a half high.Somehow I doubt it.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
My final update tonight will leave things at 175.4. Should have all the Brees stats, but may miss whatever garbage stats GB accumulates here...
As someone who's at 176.45 (I LOVE YOU BREES) I hope you are right!
chuk333
Footballguy
Ouch, really - I am sitting at 175 right now.
Rodgers tried to pull it off for me but three INT's looks like they were just too much.
Going to bed and hoping for some generous rounding.
If not, thanks to all of you guys for keeping it lively and special thanks to the guys from Fantasy Star.
-CAS
Rodgers tried to pull it off for me but three INT's looks like they were just too much.
Going to bed and hoping for some generous rounding.
If not, thanks to all of you guys for keeping it lively and special thanks to the guys from Fantasy Star.
-CAS
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Scarpaggio
Footballguy
Well it looks like I might have made it. I went from 163 before the game up to 181 because of Brees.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
With an 8% chance entering last night Brees & Pierre Thomas.
Brees & Pierre Thomas.
The simulator was just a touch off this week. It successfully sorted the really good and really bad teams from the mass in the middle, but didn't do a good job of sorting out the mass in the middle:
Things got a bit better after Thursday game:
Code:
80--89 2 2 100.070--79 62 48 77.460--69 170 112 65.950--59 258 120 46.540--49 293 144 49.130--39 147 54 36.720--29 63 20 31.710--19 9 3 33.3
Code:
80--89 9 7 77.870--79 63 49 77.860--69 172 108 62.850--59 263 134 51.040--49 270 128 47.430--39 145 52 35.920--29 67 23 34.310--19 14 2 14.3 0-- 9 1 0 0.0
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
174.85
