Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
2008 will mark a new era likely in FF. This year, more than I can ever remember, we have an extensive list of teams that are imploring more and more a 2 back system. The days of RBs getting all the carries and being in on every down are changing quickly. We are seeing teams going with a strong RB1, a COP or change of pace back that can get anywhere from 20-40% of the load, and then a 3rd back that is typically going to replace the RB1 should they go down. It’s best to embrace it rather than snarl about it.
Once again, I will explain what you will be reading so that you understand why I even put this together in the first place. First off, I think hard number projections are risky. They are easy to put together on guys like Portis and LT, but those numbers can really work against you when you get married to them. So what I like to do is combine 5 different categories into a grading system very similar to what you are used to in school. Allow me to share the 5 categories and their weighted average.
Opportunity 30%: How many touches are they going to get? Not a hard number but with what range can we think about where these guys might fall. Are there any threats to the numbers of touches from either Offensive Philosophy by the coach or the talent of the other RB on the field? Those are important factors in this score.
Offensive Line 30%: How good are the 5 uglies up front? Plain and simple, can they open holes for the RB or not.
Schedule 20%: Does it look easy or hard? Nothing is fool proof but I always think if you are off on a team that isn’t as strong as you thought, that gets offset by another team that ends up being much stronger than you expected.
Surrounding Talent 10%: Is Tom Brady your QB, or is McPenHenBeck your starter? It matters.
Intangibles 10%: A way for me to factor in things that the other categories do not allow.
I add all those things together and apply actual grades to each category for all 32 starters. I can’t tell you where to grab all these guys, I have to let the ADP out there in cyberland sort of dictate that. I can tell you that I think my system is fair, and it allows for potential break out or surprise players emerge from an otherwise hard to sift thru bunch starting about the end of the 1st round.
Let’s jump into this and what I have done is not list them in order form 1-50 or whatever, but rather I have tiers based on overall grades for one final grade that places them into the tiers. I don’t even have an order within the tiers really so don’t get bogged down on Gore is 15th…or wherever I have him listed, refer to the tier, this will help. I put the ADP next to what I anticipate will be the starter for each team. This should help you find value as you are reading thru.
It’s long…28 pages in Word so I’ll understand if you don’t get thru it all in one sit. Enjoy and please be excellent to each other, thanks.
“A” Tier
LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
Opp (A+): Not only is he perhaps the most elite RB in all of FF, but he also doesn’t compete for touches and has no real back up to take part of the load from him. Is there any reason he won’t have at least 300-320 carries and 50+ receptions? This guy is hardly ever going to be overlooked.
OL (B): They are solid to very good on the left side of the OL at run blocking, but the right side of this line has room for improvement. 4.2 ypc is not too shabby as a unit.
Sch (A): CAR, @Den, NYJ, @Oak, @Mia, @Buff, @NO…only NE at home is really a tough one in the 1st half of the season. Wk 13 on he has ATL, OAK, @KC, @TB, and DEN…nothing there that should really shut him down.
Surround (A): All pro at TE, good solid QB, Chambers is the WR1, and the defense is going to put the offense on the field and also some short fields too.
Intangibles (A): Have to feel that SD will do very well this year and maybe not have to travel anywhere come playoff time.
Overall (A): He scores an A of course but I feel like FBG that he is the clear #1 RB in FF. He might finish 2nd or 3rd, but he won’t finish outside of the top3-5 if his track record is any indication. He is a sure thing at the top of the food chain, grab him and be happy if you have the chance.
LT gets his own tier again this year.
“A-/B+” tier
Adrian Peterson (1.02)
Opp (B): I still think we will see Chester Taylor getting more carries than some ADP owners would like. Peterson is a good candidate to touch the ball quite a bit but I also think they will try and keep him as fresh as possible. ADP is the entire offense for the most part…there is no QB that is going to keep the defenses honest as of right now.
OL (A): McKinnie might get suspended and that would be bad, however this OL is deadly at running the football. 5.3 ypc last season as a unit, you have to like what opens the holes in front of him.
Sch (A): @GB, INDY, CAR, @TN to open the season…some challenges but these are not lockdown rush defenses either. Then it is @NO, DET, @Chi, bye, HOU, GB, @TB, @Jax, CHI…look at the playoffs with @Det, @AZ, and ATL at home…should find some big weeks in there.
Surround (C ): No QB, the WR and TE are young or not frontline talent as of right this moment. The defense is very tough along the DL but thins out at LB and in the secondary some.
Intangibles (A): I do think ADP is bound for success. The Vikings are contenders in the division if nothing else.
Overall (A-): He sort of walks a fine line between A-/B+ status for me. I think owners that take him 1st overall are just foolish and even if he does live up to the hype, there are at least 1-2 RB I would want before ADP for various reasons.
Brian Westbrook (1.03)
Opp (B+): He is going to get about 15 carries a game and likely about 5 catches to boot. Anytime you have an RB1 that is pretty sure of touching it 20 times a game; that is all you can ask for really. I know they brought in Booker to take some of the pressure and load off of Westbrook. I think that says something about what is on the roster right now if they traded for Booker.
OL (A): They are great at run blocking, a 4.7 ypc avg. Tra Thomas and John Runyan are still pretty solid book end Tackles, and Shaun Andrews at RG, Jamaal Jackson at Center, this is a very good run blocking OL…and that is what we really focus on here.
Sch (C+): Starts off St.L, @Dall, PITT, @Chi, WASH, @SF, Bye…a bit harder than what we have seen to this point. @NYG, CLE, @Wash for the playoffs.
Surround (B): McNabb really keeps this score strong but I don’t particularly think Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and LJ Smith make for a Pro bowl receiving core…they don’t. The defense is OK but nothing like they were 3-4 years ago when they went to the NFC Championship 4 years in a row.
Intangibles (B): I think Westbrook has shown that he misses a little bit of a time most of the time. He hasn’t started all 16 games in a season ever in his 6 years in the league. He has only missed 1 full game in each of the past 2 seasons to be fair.
Overall (B+): Should be productive as always, only concern is how many touches are taken from him.
MB III (1.8)
Opp (B-): Is Barber going to be leaned on for 25 touches a game? No way…but he should see more touches to the tune of a 65/35 split IMO with Felix Jones. Barber should get around 15 carries a game and likely 3-5 balls thrown his way during the game too. 15-18 touches a game should be expected.
OL (B+): Pretty solid group that returns all 5 starters. 4.2ypc last season as a team.
Sch (B): @Cle, PHI, @GB, WAS, CIN, @AZ, @St.L, TB, @NYG…even teams that might give them a fight just look like they will be in shootouts…none of that is bad for Dallas skill position players. @Pitt, NYG, and BAL during the playoffs is not that great but the regular season has a lot of juicy match ups.
Surround (A): Talent everywhere
Intangibles (A): Finally gets his chance to really show off as the RB1, I think he will shine.
Overall (B+): I’m high on Barber but realize he is going to be giving way at times for Felix Jones.
Steven Jackson (1.4)
Opp (A+): In almost every game he played in last year where he was healthy and the Rams were not completely out of it, and some where they were…he had rushing totals of 21, 30, 22, 23, 23, 20, 18, 24…and ’06 was very similar. Linehan is still the HC for the time being so it would be safe to assume the same type of workload.
OL (C+): Alex Barron was the only starting OL who was able to play all 16 games last season. No team could have performed well with what happened to them at OL last season, plain and simple. Signed Bell(LG) away from the Titans and he is viewed as an upgrade for them.
Sch (B): @Phi, NYG, @Sea, BUFF to open the season. @Wash, DAL, and @NE after a bye week…but then AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF, @Atl…nice way to finish the season.
Surround (B): Holt is still a top level WR, Bulger when healthy is a top NFL QB, the defense is making strides but they give up the long ball…that means quick scores that put the offense back on the field.
Intangibles (C+): My problem with SJax has been my fear of him getting hurt. He runs with reckless abandon but on that turf he can do a lot of damage when he is always seeking contact. I don’t know if SJax will change up his style but he is destined for the IR if he continues to run the same way.
Overall (B+): SJax could be a real force in the 2nd half of the season. He should see an increase in receptions which means more touches. He is not in danger of losing any carries other than wearing down which he doesn’t do in games.
“B/B- “ tier
Marshawn Lynch (1.11)
Opp (A-): He is the man in Buffalo, no doubt about it. 280 carries in 13 games averages out to 21+ carries a game. He never carried it less than 18 times a game whenever he started, and he did that as a rookie. Only 18 receptions but I blame the QB play more than anything. I see his touches increasing this year.
OL (B): Their LT, Peters is pretty pedestrian at run blocking. 6’8” 365 lb RT, Langston Walker, is a pure amuler on the right side of the line. Bills avg 4.6 ypc behind Walker, although his size makes him not so athletic, so it’s doubtful he can throw off any DBs with a sweep wide type block. Derrick Dockery was signed alst season and improved the LG play on the line tremendously. The Center position is a bit uncertain but overall this line is not terrible at run blocking and I see improvement going into 2008. \
Sch (B+): SEA, @Jax, Oak, @StL, @AZ to start…@KC, SF, MIA, @NYJ, @Den down the stretch. I like his schedule a lot and think he will see plenty of good match ups.
Surround (D): This is what hurts Lynch. I downgrade based on terrible QB play at the present, no TE, WR are very streaky and pretty young outside of Lee Evans.
Intangibles (B): I like the kid and think he is going to shine this season. A top10 finish is surely within reach if he just plays all 16 games, and I see a dark horse for top5 if things go right. I am not as high in dynasty as I am this season, but I think Lynch stands a good chance to be special.
Overall (B): A solid B grade with a 3.1 and there is room for even a higher stop point for Lynch in 2008. Everyone that was crying about picking in the middle of the 1st round…you have lots of options.
Selvin Young (6.06)…but not for long
And the shock and awe of reading this thread/article just kicked up a few notches. If you are still sitting in your chair, please remain calm and the oxygen masks above you will fall down, gently place the mask over your face and breathe normally. For those of you that already were thinking some of the things I am going to highlight, please don’t hate me as I am going to likely increase the ADP of Young in the next 2-3 minutes.
Opp (B): This guy had 35 catches as a rookie and splitting time. I see a WR corp that is far from dominant right now, a QB that may or may not play better, and a defense that is shaky…and that spells a lot of touches for Young. There is no other RB on the roster that is a threat. Torrain is gone for the season most likely. Young in limited touches last season avg over 5 ypc. He was top 40 in non PPR leagues and he only touched the ball 180 some odd times…he should be north of 300 between carries and receptions this season. He is 5’11”, 215 lbs right now…almost ideal size, the knock on him was his size. Only thing I don’t like when a RB adds 10 lbs of muscle is that the speed can sometimes take a hit. But even if he avg 4.4-4.6 ypc he will still be a strong runner.
OL (B): OL managed to avg 4.6 ypc basically without Nalen and Hamilton much of the season last year. People can blast away all they like but the fact is the Broncos can run the football. They were 9th in the NFL last season and 5th in ypc.
Sch (A): SD in week 2, Jags and Pats back to back in week 6 and 7, he will see a bye week and then it’s blast off time…MIA, @Cle, @Atl, OAK, @NYJ, KC, @Car, BUF…what team do you really fear here down the stretch? There are some soft run schedules for quite a few RB this year but the schedule in place for a Denver team that typically can run the football looks pretty tasty.
Surround (C ): Cutler, Scheffler, DJax, and a suspended Brandon Marshall doesn’t strike me as anything better than average right now.
Intangible (B): I see a guy that is being left for grabs in rounds 4-6 and I think for anyone that wants to go WR/WR in the 1st/2nd, or QB/WR, or some combo, this guy should be on your radar to grab.
Overall (B): No need to reach for him as he will be there for sure in the 4th round but I think some owners were wanting to take this guy as an RB3 sometime in the 5th-7th…just not going to happen as all signs point to him starting and doing well in Denver. I would be dishonest if I didn’t share 1 stat from the great Jeff Tefertiller of FBG, and that is Young runs for 6+ ypc in the 1st half, and then he drops to 3.2 ypc in the 2nd half. You can read that stat however you like but it doesn’t stop me from grabbing this guy in every redraft where I am slotted for a late 1st round pick and might have to let RB slide to the 3/4 turn.
Joseph Addai (1.5)
Opp (A): The fact is he will get the lion’s share of the workload. They aren’t going to pull him on 3rd down so they can get the ball into Rhodes or Hart’s hands…he might not get 320 carries but I see him getting 65-75% of the carries, surely isn’t in a 2 back rotation.
OL (C+): This OL is better at pass protection than they are at running the ball. 3.8 ypc as a team last season…I’m actually being generous. If this were pass protection, they would get an A most likely, but it’s more about run blocking down here.
Schedule (D): Worse than you might think…CHI, @MN, JAX to start off the season…ouch!!! Bye week then @Hou, BAL, @GB, @TN, NE, @Pitt…where are the cupcakes in this schedule? Hou, @SD, @Cle, CIN, DET…this is not too terrible at the end of the year but then they see Jax in week 16. This is pretty tough for most teams. If Indy had a great run blocking OL I wouldn’t be so tough with the schedule but something has to give.
Surround (A): No question about it. Pro Bowlers everywhere and at key positions on this team.
Intangibles (A): Guy has posted back to back top10 FF seasons his 1st 2 years in the league, good things happen with him typically.
Overall (B): OL and Schedule has me worried and I would not reach too high for Addai.
Jamal Lewis (3.02)
Opp (B): They will not be throwing to Lewis out of the backfield a ton but he still garners a majority of the carries. The other backs on the roster avg about 4-5 carries so Lewis is the guy at all times if they need a yard or two on the ground. He is not removed when they get near the goal line…not a ton of downside here despite the lack of pass receptions.
OL (A): One of the best run blocking OL in all of football. I want to share something that everyone needs to understand. This category and the next category are directly related. People are dogging the Browns and that they have a tough schedule…sure it’s not easy but they have a “Dominant” run blocking OL…so no matter who they face unless it’s the Minnesota Vikings every week, they stand a good chance of coming out the winner in the battle of the trenches. Joe Thomas was named to the Pro Bowl as a rookie LT…let me repeat that Joe Thomas was named to the Pro Bowl as a rookie LT. Next to him is Eric Steinbach. The left side of this line averages 5.14 ypc…wow! Haley, Tucker, and Shaffer make the middle to right side of this line and they hold their own just fine.
Sch (C ): I would put it higher but I do see what others are looking at. What they are missing though is the Browns have a great offense that can run and pass and is anchored down by the OL…relax Cleveland fans, you’re going to the playoffs this year, no doubt in my mind…wait a minute…no it went away never mind, you’ll be fine. Starting in week 10…DEN, @Buf, HOU, INDY, @TN, @Phi, CIN…it isn’t the monster everyone makes it out to be.
Surround (A): Braylon, KW II, Stallworth, Anderson/Quinn, this team is loaded on offense, and it’s the most talent ever assembled around Lewis at the skill positions.
Intangibles (C ): Age has got to be a factor at some point. No? Wear n Tear is creeping up here as well. I like Lewis and his chances but I also think at some point in the season we may see an injury and get a glimpse of Wright…but don’t worry, you can get the insurance policy way late, so that makes Lewis all that better to grab at his current ADP.
Overall (B): I like Lewis a lot, he gets the lion’s share, no real threat to him, great OL to block in front of him, talent all along the skill positions…this is a solid pick.
Clinton Portis (1.10)
Opp (A): This is what owners enjoy, the fact is he gets a lot of touches, and the rumor is that with the installment of a WCO from Zorn, that Portis will get into open space more, and also get plenty of touches.
OL (C+): What on this OL has changed? They have an always underwhelming twosome at Tackle with Chris Samuel and Jansen who gets injured on the other side. They only managed a 3.8 ypc avg as a group. It just isn’t anything that special, sorry. And yes they suffer injuries, what has changed? The first few days of camp they had guys going down left and right. There is no depth here so unless you are telling me they can play all 16 games as a unit, I see no reason to bump this group up, in fact I am being generous here.
Sch (C ): Not that easy and not over the top hard. 2nd half after the bye week is no picnic with DAL, @Sea, NYG, @Balt, @Cin, PHI…5 of those 6 are thought to factor into the playoff potential teams.
Surround (B-): I don’t think Campbell is as bad as I once thought…he is slowly moving out of the project stage and into a viable starter. The offense from all reports seem to be passing the ball a lot better under Zorn. I like Moss, Cooley, and they have a lot of talent now at WR with their rookie picks, this is not a bad group of skill position players.
Intangibles (B+): He’s Clinton Portis…4th, 5th, 11th, 6th, 36th(Injured), and 4th the past 6 seasons…guy is almost a lock for top 10 at the end of the season. Can you say consistency?
Overall (B-): Most of you know I was down on Portis this summer. (MOP censored and edited an entire paragraph where he was about to put his foot in his mouth again)…but enough of that. You won’t lose by taking Portis in your redrafts, and I suspect he might have a few more BIG games this year with a new offense.
Frank Gore (1.07)
Again, I know some of you have fallen out of your chair because I don’t have Gore up quite as high as some of the other sites or mags you have been gobbling up. And I understand the backlash but at the same time, I have to go with what the criteria is giving me.
Opp (B): I don’t think Gore is going to approach 300 carries but I do think 250 is about the floor, and I also can’t think of a reason he shouldn’t clear 50-60+ catches again. You add them together and I think 300+ touches is almost a given here.
OL (C-): I could probably grade it even lower if I tried but I don’t want to bury Gore either. Starting RG Justin Smiley left for Miami, and Larry Allen has been in and out of retirement, but he is likely a shell of his former self at this point. 2007 1st round pick Joe Staley will rotate from RT to LT to protect the blindside of ??? Jonas Jennings will man the RT spot but he has missed something like 21 games over the past 3 seasons…not very reliable, and the Niners don’t have a ton of depth.
Sch (A): AZ, @Sea, DET, @NO to open the season…HELLO!!! After the bye in week 9, he plays @AZ, St L, @Dal, @Buf, NYJ, @Mia, @St L…outside of Dallas where are the really tough teams against the run?
Surround (C ): QB is a mystery, I do like Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce joining Battle to form a nice trio at WR, and Vernon Davis if he can be used by Martz will be a real threat.
Intangibles (A): Most RB succeed in a Mike Mrtz offense even if they don’t rush for 1,500 yds on a regular basis. Gore has a lot of talent and I think it will be maximized by Martz.
Overall (B-): I do like Gore, but I have some real issues with the OL here. I know people are taking him top5 off the board…not sure I can agree with that at the moment. I need to see that OL, and I want to see how they respond with everyone being shuffled around and new players entering…there sure can’t be much cohesion along that line right now.
“C+” tier
Brandon Jacobs (3.09)
Opp (C+): Some will be surprised by this grade but when you look at his game logs, Jacobs really does get a lion’s share of the touches when he is starting. In 10-11 games he had almost 225 touches including a 5.0 ypc and over 1,000 yds rushing. 5 more solid games and I think he would have had over 300 touches pretty easy. But I also think they want to keep him fresh, and I see an increased role for Ahmad Bradshaw, and you can’t just let ard sit on the sideline and never get into the game.
OL (A): It’s a good group. Diehl and McKenzie are under rated bookend Tackles. They put up 4.6 ypc on the ground last year…and let’s not forget all those great seasons Tiki Barber had and almost made him look like a HoF candidate. They didn’t miss a beat last season at opening up holes. All 5 starters returning from a SB team, you have to like it.
Sch (B-): Not that bad really. WAS, @St L, CIN, SEA, @Cle, SF to open the season. @Was, PHI, @Dal, CAR to close the season. Better in the earlier part of the season but when it turns cold, most running games still push forward as passing games tend to slow down some.
Surround (B-): Loss of Shockey will hurt some but Eli, Plax, Toomer, and some good young talent at WR seems like a pretty good surrounding crew.
Intangibles (C ): Injuries always seem to come up when you talk about Jacobs so it has to be factored in somewhere.
Overall (C+): Better than avg IMO, and certainly will have some ups and downs but his game logs last year point to a RB that when healthy can be top15-20 a lot. In PPR leagues amongst RB, Jacobs finished 13th-wk5, 6th-wk7, 9th-wk8, 20th-wk10, 7th-wk11, 9th-wk 15, 3rd-wk16…so you can see when he was actually on the field he had some absolutely terrific weeks. It’s possible when the weather turns colder, he gets hotter. It’s painful to tackle a 260+ lb Halfback when it’s 32 degrees outside…heck it’s painful in 80 degree weather too but I think it’s even worse when it’s cold. Don’t sleep on Jacobs, but don’t overspend either. Could be a surprise RB2 this year.
Larry Johnson (2.01)
Opp (A): At this point we know Herm Edwards, no matter what he says, will run his starting RB into the ground if need be. Curtis Martin had a ton of carries when Herm was the coach of the Jets, and then he gave LJ 400+ carries a couple years ago, and I can’t see how LJ doesn’t get another 320+ carries and a bunch of catches unless he ends up injured again.
OL (D-): Easily one of the worst units in the National Football League…Willie Roaf and Will Shields, both HoF candidates left in a 12 month period and they simply will never be replaced. Branden Albert, the rookie LT will miss all of training camp due to a foot injury…do you think he will be behind the 8 ball on the learning curve? Rudy Niswanger-C, Adrian Jones-LG, and Damion McIntosh-RT don’t do much for me. Brian Waters is their best OL player at LG. I’m sorry but they have 3 potential starters on opening day that have never played a lick in the NFL…oof!
Sch (B): Unlike last season this year the Chiefs will catch a break, however their OL isn’t good enough to exploit it. After he has a bye in week 6, let’s look at the home stretch…TN, @NYJ, TB, @SD, NO, BUFF, @Oak, @Den, SD, MIA, @Cinci…plenty of decent match ups for LJ this season really.
Surround (C ): Bowe and Gonzo have to be taken into measure here. I realize Croyle is el stinko right now but there is talent in this offense at the skill positions outside of the QB.
Intangibles (B): I want to believe that LJ will turn it around and return to glory. The reality is that his OL is putrid but with so many touches, he almost has to be able to rack up 100 yds week in and week out.
Overall (C+): I think LJ could be value if he gets any help from his OL. This is a guy that put up a lot of points in the last few years and to be able to maybe grab him on the ½ turn could pay dividends for owners. I am just not liking his OL, and the bad QB play they have at the moment is not very inspiring.
Ryan Grant (2.07)…and falling
Opp (B): The Pack are definitely committed to Ryan Grant at this point. He just signed for a much larger contract than what he was expected to play for. I like Grant in spurts but there is a major reason he is falling down the boards right now.
OL (C+ ): The Pack fans just rolled their eyes at this grade but you have to look at what they actually do on the ground. 3.9 ypc behind the LT is not all that great, however Clifton is a great pass protector and he had to be because of…The Packers totaled 4.1 ypc for the season and that put them at 12th but they only ranked 21st in total yds rushing…that might have more to do with the offensive play calling but time will tell.
Sch (C ): MN, @Det, DAL, @TB to open the season…3 potential tough defenses in the 1st 4 games. Let’s play this out. They lose what’s his name, Grant might come out of the box slow, good luck trying to work a trade. They come out of the bye in week 9 to face TN and MN on the road, then home for Chicago, that won’t be fun. There are some softer games sprinkled in but this is far from the cupcake schedule other backs have.
Surround (A): You can argue this all day long, but what teams have a Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson form the 1-4 spots at WR, Doanld Lee is no slouch, and I think Rodgers has the tools to succeed. You can downgrade this if you want, but one of the things that was keeping Rodgers higher earlier in the summer was the talent he had around him under center.
Intangibles (B): I do think the Pack stand tall behind what they have. Grant will be given every option to succeed. I also think the departure of Brett Favre is going to have an impact on him.
Overall (C+): Has been going too high for my taste, but he may fall a lot now, and become good value during the upcoming redrafts.
Maurice Jones-Drew (2.10)
Opp (C ): Always hard to grade this because he simply never will be a 20 carry a game guy. 10-12 carries at best and then he gets about 2-3 receptions on average…it’s not like he gets 4-5 catches a game which would put him up a lot more in PPR leagues.
OL (B+): 4.6 ypc in 2007. Meester, the Center, is out for at least the 1st 3-4 games of the regular season which isn’t good. They are great at running to the right side of the OL behind Tony Pashos who they grabbed form Baltimore before the 2007 season. Manuwai and Williams will once agin make a good strong run blocking tandem at the Guard positions.
Sch (C ): Very up and down. They face Minnesota, but they also see the Bengals. They have to play Tennesse twice, but they also see Detroit and Denver…it’s not easy, but the OL is pretty good and I think they have the advantage more than not.
Surround (C ): Fact is the WR1 and WR2 spots are injured right now and if they ahd to start right now, Troy Williamson and Dennis Northcutt would be the starting WR…YIKES!!! TE is nothing special at the moment, and Garrard really doesn’t get me excited. Fairly pedestrian if you ask me.
Intangibles (A): They guy seems to find the end zone and he also seems to make the most out of his touches. I think Fred Taylor will disappoint and frustrate owners this year, so I expect a slight increase at times in the way of touches for MJD. But I also realize that he has likely hit his ceiling the past 2 seasons as well.
Overall (C+): I am going to simply close with this…I’m not sure if I have already seen the best of MJD or if the best is yet to come.
Laurence Maroney (3.06)
Opp (D): If Sammy Morris wasn’t stealing away so many touches, now you have Lamont Jordan who looked pretty spunky the other night. We are going to get more into this but Maroney is a very dangerous pick to me right now until we know what the actual plan will be.
OL (B): Very solid, if not spectacular. Lot of depth, at this point we all know the pAts are pretty good on offense all the way around. Only a 4.1 ypc but I also think that had something to do with the guy we are discussing right now.
Sch (A): Just silly that they have a ridiculously easy schedule…if they hadn’t had as much turnover as they had in the off season I would think they could go 16-0 again. KC, @NYJ, MIA, @SF…what a nice soft starting schedule. DEN, St L, @Indy, BUF, NYJ, @Mia, PIT, @Sea, @Oak, AZ…you gotta really try hard to not like this schedule.
Surround (A): Brady, Moss, Welker…what else do you need to open up the running game really?
Intangibles (D): I don’t like that they brought in LaMont Jordan other than the fact that I now can draft Jordan confidently. I grabbed him in about the last round of every best ball or survivor draft I could in the off season…I really felt he got the raw end of the deal in Oakland . A new attitude in New England and I think Jordan will eat into Maroney’s playing time for sure.
Overall (C+): I look at this slot more as a week to week situation. The OL, Schedule, and Surrounding talent is in place to make any starting RB a quality play, but we don’t know what the carries are going to be for each back. I feel Sammy Morris might not make the team if Jordan proves his worth…I can even see scenarios where Faulk could be gone…and is it out of the realm of possibilities that Maroney is dealt right before the season begins if they think Jordan can carry the load? I’m not saying this is a sure thing but I don’t rule out anything with the Pats.
Darren McFadden (4.07)
Opp (B): I really don’t have a lot to base this on but I just cannot believe he was taken in the top5 but is stuck in a 2 back rotation system unless he proves he cannot handle the load. Oakland has a rookie basically under Center so I don’t think this is going to be a wide open offense. In fact I think DMac, Fargas, and even Bush may all have their moments during the season but I also think McFadden will get at least 15-18 touches a game or Al Davis’ head will simply explode.
OL (C+): The Raiders avg 4.1 ypc last season. They have 3 of those starters returning and have added John Wade from TB, and Kwame Harris will likely step in at LT for Barry Sims which might be an upgrade to some extent. Not the OL that some people think but it’s not horrible by any stretch, possibly even improving.
Sch (C+): DEN, @KC, @ Buf to open the season. Actually it is a very nice schedule for most of the season but look what he faces in weeks 14 and 15, typically the opening of the playoffs in most leagues…@SD, NE, those two games sort of dampen my enthusiasm a bit. It’s the timing of those games more than anything. Would rather they played them in weeks 1 and 2.
Surround (D): JeMarcus might be good long term but he is not a top20 QB, not even top25 likely. Javon Walker wants to retire, Curry is not a WR1, other than the 2nd year TE Zach Miller, I don’t like a lot of the skill position players presently.
Intangibles (B): I like his skill set and think he will show some flashed of why people loved him coming out of college. The fact is though he doesn’t play on a high octane offense yet, and he will have a learning curve tog et over as he enters the NFL.
Overall (C+): A guy that is very interesting to take in PPR leagues on the 3/ 4 turn.
“C” tier
Earnest Graham (4.02)
Opp (C-): I’m not as optimistic that he is going to carry the load. I think you will see other RB come in and out of the line up, especially Dunn on 3rd downs catching balls out of the backfield, and in passing situations I also think Dunn will be on the field. I do see where Graham had 49 receptions last year, 13 in one game…I’ll talk more about Warrick Dunn later in this thread.
OL (B): Sears, Faine, Joseph, and Trueblood are all set at their positions. The one spot that might have some problems is LT where Pettigout has battled injury and the alternative is Donald Penn. Overall this is a pretty good OL, still room for growth, will be interesting how they respond this year.
Sch (B+): Opens with @NO, ATL, @Chi, GB, @Den, CAR, SEA, @Dal, @KC…quite a few good match ups with a strong OL in front of him. @Det, NO, @Car, @Atl, SD, OAK to close the season…overall there is a lot of nice match ups on the schedule with very few shut down defenses.
Surround (C ): Galloway is great but aging, and he is more of a flyer than a guy that will go over the middle and move the sticks. Garcia is also aging, and he is pretty avg at this point. No TE, lack of a 2nd WR…they likely should be lower than average really.
Intangibles (B-): I like Graham on the surface, but you did a little deeper and you fins that he does have some things working against him. I just think he will be getting no more than about 50-60% of the touches for the RB. More carries and receptions which hurts him in PPR.
Overall (C ): The OL will help make him a better play than he probably should be. I’m not worried a bit about Cadillac this season but I do see Dunn getting plenty of touches in this offense. Don’t reach for Graham.
Thomas Jones (5.01)
Opp (C ): He is going to get a good amount of the carries, but I still see Washington gobbling up catches and potential touches. This could score out higher if he takes a more traditional role with Favre taking the snaps.
OL (B): You can’t grade them on the 3.8 ypc they amassed with Clemens/Pennington starting, and the addition of Alan Faneca cannot be undersold here. I think they will be much improved at running the football, and hopefully the addition of Brett Favre will
Help with the urn game even more.
Sch (C+): NE and SD in the 1st 3 weeks. After the week 5 bye there is nice a soft part where they will face CIN, @Oak, KC, @Buf, St L…should be some good games in there. Den, @SF, BUF, @Sea for the playoff stretch.
Surround (B): Favre is an upgrade at QB, plain and simple. Coles and COtchery are not flashy but I think they will be improved with Favre.
Intangibles (B): You have to love the addition of Brett Favre. Jones has some skills and look at what Favre has done with guys like Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, it’s long and distinctive list.
Overall (C ): Jones is another guy I think you want on your radar on the 3/ 4 turn if you go WR/WR or WR/QB on the 1/ 2 turn.
Reggie Bush (3.04)
Opp (C ): How far do you drop a guy that could grab 80 balls in PPR leagues, but this player is proving quickly he may never run like he did in college ever again. He will surely split the carries at best with whoever else is starting in the back field whether it is Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas.
OL (C-): They are pretty pedestrian at opening holes. In fact they only had a 3.7 ypc last season. They are fairly deep though and that is a good sign. They should see improvement this season but we will have ot wait and see. A stronger OL and the running game in NO would be as desirable as the passing game and all its components.
Sch (B+): It’s nice with an opening section of TB, @Was, @Den, SF, MN, OAK, @Car, SD…the tough defenses will be at home where I think NO has a clear advantage. After the bye week they will have games @Atl, @KC, GB, @TB, Atl, @Chi, @Det…Over half those teams are likely not making the playoffs and have fairly weak defenses including against the run.
Surround (A): Brees, Colston, and now Shockey make for an explosive set of skill positions. Time for Bush to get on the train or be thrown into exile by FF owners.
Intangibles (C ): I want to believe he can do it, but he has had so many chances and there is a great passing game to lead the way and he simply has not produced. Yes he had 4 TD in 1 game, and he will grab 80 receptions perhaps but when he is only getting 4-5 yds and sometimes less on each of his catches…drives FF owners nuts.
Overall (C ): Surrounding talent, a pretty soft schedule, and his god given abilities should be enough…maybe he needs to kick Ms Kardashian and her bubble butt to the curb until he can really become the superstar in the NFL everyone envisioned when he entered the NFL.
Willis McGahee (2.04)
Opp (B): I had this much higher earlier in the summer but Ray Rice seems more and more likely to at least be in on 3rd downs. I don’t care what the coaches say, Rice is suited to get the ball out of the backfield much more than McGahee although I believe he had a career high with 43 receptions last season. I attribute that to the absence of Heap and Clayton from the line up…look for those numbers to slide down some.
OL (C- ): It’s not horrible with Ogden retiring but it is far from dominating. 3 starters from last season that were shuffled around will now move back to their natural positions. Fact is Ogden went to 11 straight Pro Bowls and is going to Canton…those type of guys are never easy to replace although it is safe to say that Ogden might have skated by on his laurels over the past 2-3 seasons…IMHO. Pay close attention to Bob Henry’s camp reports as there have been injuries along the Tackle positions as well.
Sch (C ): So so, and a little tougher in the 2nd half of the season. CIN, @Hou, CLE, @Pitt, TEN, @Indy, @Mia, Oak, @Cle…and down the stretch it’s @Cin, WAS, PITT, @Dal
Surround (D ): I penalize hard when the QB situation looks almost as bad presently as what the Miami Dolphins are about to unroll…and you have little speed and a lot of injuries to the receiving corp. Not too thrilled with any of this.
Intangibles (B): He did do well last season and I’m not sure the QB play could get a lot worse this year. Clayton and Heap should bounce back although Heap already went down in training camp, not sure of the extent of the injury.
Overall (C ): I had McGahee a lot higher on my board earlier this summer, now he has slid down to the ranks of just average. I still don’t blame owners for grabbing him in the 2nd round but I don’t know that he will live up to those expectations after he produced such a consistent 2007 campaign.
Edge (4.10)
Opp (B): Certianly he gets the majority of the carries. He isn’t asked to do a lot in the passing game. In Indy you could always count on 40-55 catches but in AZ he is more in the 20-30 range it seems.
OL (D): They only allowed 24 sacks last season but that 3.6 ypc avg they seem to keep posting, isn’t helping their grade in the run game. The line is actually pretty good at run blocking to the right side, pass blocking to the left…on a sidenot, how does that help Leinart exactly? Anyways, this grade could move up and Edge might climb a few spots…but the fact is he is going in the 4th round, so if the grade is higher, it simply is a bonus for you.
Sch (B): Real nice early, so an added bonus here might be that Edge can come out of the gates fast and help you leverage a trade. @SF, MIA, @Wash, @NYJ, BUF, very nice start. MN and NE in weeks 15 and 16 will not be fun.
Surround (B): Fitz and Boldin make perhaps the most effective 1-2 punch at WR. TE is lacking and if Warner is actually the starter at some point, this is anice group at the skill positions.
Intangibles (B-): I think Edge should hang on again as the starter but look out for Tim Hightower who is having an impressive camp by all reports and might factor into the running game some.
Overall (C ): I like Edge for the price you can get him for right now. Schedule outside of the playoffs is fairly soft so he should have a good year, maybe 1,200+ on the ground.
Kevin Smith (6.09)
Opp (C+): Other than the fact we simply don’t know yet, what is preventing Smith from being the 15-20 carry guy? The OC and HC have come out and said they will be more conservative on offense, which to me signals a shift in the commitment to the running game. I like Tatum Bell enough but I can’t see him as more than a COP back for the moment.
OL (C-): It’s not quite as bad as we have been lead to believe. They did avg 4.0 ypc last season. Jeff Backus, the LT has been a starter for 7 seasons, plays thru a lot of pain but he is pretty average as a Tackle in this league. Mulitalo is one of the starting Guards, at 34 he is aging but he is a pretty good run blocker. Gosder Cherilus, the rookie is not a great pass protector but he can run block as well. This line is going to sneak up on some people and I expect some big games on the ground for the Lions(can’t believe I types that).
Sch (D+): This is going to hurt them. @Atl, GB, @SF, and a bye to start…not too rough and Smith is going to need to get his learning curve out of the way because after the early bye it gets rough. CHI, @MN, @Hou, WAS, @Chi, JAX, @Car, TB, and the playoffs feature TN, MN, @Indy, and finally NO.
Surround (B): Kitna is a journeyman but Roy and Calvin provide some serious upside and excitement at the WR positions.
Intangibles (A): I’m gonna get my money’s worth out of this grade. I work with a fellow who played not only on the HS Football team with 24K, but also grew up with him, played Pop Warner with Kevin, ia m very fortunate to have sat down and talked to him about Smith. Now this guy does not play FF, had no idea why I was asking so many questions, but he conveyed to me that Kevin Smith, who grew up in Miami, always and he emphasized that word, always had a different approach to the game. Where other guys were playing for the fun of it, Kevin was totally focused at a young age and everyone around him knew he was special and would likely play in the NFL one day. I tell you this not to impress you with some inside stuff, but to impress upon you that this is a guy you might really want as an RB3, or an RB2 if you load up on WR and other slots earlier in the draft. I get the feeling Kevin simply works harder than everyone else. Other guys in the NFL, and I don’t need to name drop into this post to explain to you that guys that work harder in the NFL, typically do better. Manning watching game films, TO in the weight room, LT in the film room and practice, most of the guys that excel in this league, work hard.
Overall (C ): I didn’t push the grades on Smith just because I got some interesting background on the guy, but I would keep this guy on your radar come draft day. I want to grade the OL and Schedule higher, that would probably jump Smith up at least 1 tier so I think he is value where he is at in the draft right now.
Michael Turner (4.04)
Opp (B): They paid him a lot of money and it sure isn’t to watch him walking around on the sidelines. I expect him in there on 1st and 2nd down, if the Falcons need more than about 3 yards on 3rd down, I would expect Norwood to be inserted at that point. They won’t be pulling Turner near the goal line, but they also won’t see the goal line much either.
OL (D): They weren’t too good last year, and now they have a bunch of new guys. Sam Baker will have an uphill climb playing LT in the NFL. He was good but not great in college, and I think overall the Falcons will have a bottom 5 at the LT position for the 2008 season. A lot of the jobs are still being ironed out in camp, especially along the right side…this just doesn’t sound good to me. A good OL knows who their starters are and they play together year in and year out. I don’t see any cohesion here at all.
Sch (B): It’s soft for sure. DET, @TB, KC, @Car, and after the bye week @Oak, NO, DEN, CAR, @SD, @NO, TB, @MN to close out the year. Not a bad schedule all said but the OL is going to be challenged to take advantage off any of it. Even a soft rush defense can get the upper hand against a terrible OL.
Surround (D+): QB is a mystery, White is solid, Laurent still has some developing to do at the WR2 spot, no TE as Crumpler left. I saw the 1st pre season game and Ryan looked pretty good, but he’s a rookie, and even if he starts over Redman, I don’t see how he can do very well as a rookie.
Intangibles (C ): Bad things happen to good players on really lousy teams. I think the Falcons will be picking top5 next year, and I am a bit skeptical that he can carry the ball 300+ times without any injuries.
Overall (C ): Turner is a guy I am not targeting in most drafts. There are other guys I like better that being picked around the same time as MT.
Ronnie Brown (3.10)
Opp (B): Ricky Williams is becoming a bigger threat to Brown day after day. I also am not sure I see Miami giving Brown a new contract. Very possible we see a different starter as early as next season for Miami. Brown will still get plenty of touches and he showed last season that he very capable out of the backfield so I think he should be in there on 3rd down situations.
OL (D): Let’s not fool ourselves. Jake Long will take some time getting to adjusted to the NFL, however he handed Gaines Adams his lunch the other night, had no trouble with him at all. Smiley was brought over from SF, but he wasn’t that special with the Niners. Satele is solid and if he continues to grow he could be a potential Pro Bowler down the road. Donald Thomas and Shawn Murphy are battling each other in camp and so far Thomas, the 6th round pick out of UConn, is winning that battle. Vernon Carey now slides back to RT, his natural position coming out of college…fact is Carey has been pretty bleh so far in the NFL and I am not expecting big things from him.
Sch (B): NYJ, @AZ, @NE and a bye week to start. In week 8 he starts a string of very nice games that include BUF, @Den, SEA, OAK, NE, @St L, @Buf, SF, and @KC to lose the season…NE and maybe Seattle are playoff caliber teams in that list.
Surround (D+): Even with Chad Pennington, this group has a long way to go. Fasano might be the answer at TE, he looked sharp the other night in preseason. Teddy Ginn is not a #1 WR, he may not even be a #2. Wilford has been downgraded to WR3, and he could slide further. Derek Hagan does not impress me and he is perhaps the WR2 at this point. And Pennington was OK in New York, I’m happy to have him over what we did have in place, but let’s not pretend he is a top10 QB because he’s not.
Intangibles (B): When all is said and done, Brown should see plenty of carries and even in a 2 back system, Brown should get 55-60% of the carries, and I think he will be in and around the goal line situations as well…in the rare event they happen.
Overall (C ): Brown is a guy I am looking the other way on right now. Too much risk for me and we have seen some great RB over the years not be able to come back the year after they tear an ACL…typically the next season is when they return 100%.
Jonathon Stewart (5.05)
Opp (D): Fact is this guy isn’t even healthy right now. His toe is still recovering form surgery he had in March if the reports I read were correct. I can’t see him being a 3 down back either with DWill on the sideline. I expect DeAngelo to get his fair share of carries too. This is not the Stewart Show.
OL (C+): They did manage a 4.0 ypc as a unit. They went out and drafted Otah to help improve the line and create a power running style for the Panthers. Stewart will be a big part of that ground game.
Sch (C+): @SD, CHI, @MN the first 3 games of the season. Maybe he should let DWill go out there the first 3 weeks and have at it because these 3 games without Smith for most of it too…not going to be a great way to start the season…and we all know how tough it is to try and pull trades when the guy you want to move is doing lousy. It get better as next up they face ATL, KC, @TB, NO, AZ, so they get 4 out of 5 at home before their bye week. @Oak, DET, @Atl, @GB, TB, DEN, @NYG to close the season. Things definitely pick up after week 3…if you don’t draft this guy, he might be a guy to go and get after week 2 or week 3. It’s odd to think about things like that, but at the same time if you can peer into the crystal ball and be right once in awhile…
Surround (B): Delhomme, Smith, Mush, and DJ Hackett make a nice air attack to take pressure off the running game. If Carolina had a slightly higher profile TE, this offense would be scary.
Intangibles (B-): He was drafted pretty high but Fox has always shown loyalty to players that have been in his system for awhile…maybe DWill starts the season but in the end Stewart is going to be leaned on. Fox wants to run the ball, shorten the game, play tough defense…simple recipe and not hard to follow.
Overall (C ): Probably worth his draft spot but I don’t like the toe injury this close to the season starting.
Willie “no longer fast” Parker (4.05)
Opp (D): Think he might not get 300+ carries this season? I just see a split right down the middle for the Steeler backfield and I also don’t see Parker getting goal line touches exclusively either.
OL (B-): I’ll sum it up like this. I think the OL is going to be OK at run blocking, the challenge will be pass protection for them but that should not impact their run blocking skills.
Sch (C ): The regular season is OK, but starting in week 13, the money weeks, here is how the schedule shakes out…@NE, DAL, @Bal, @TN…not exactly easy by any stretch.
Surround (A): Big Ben, Ward, Miller, Holmes, Sweed, and others make up a superior skill position set around for Parker/Mendenhall.
Intangibles (D): Writing is on the wall, and I think Parker will lose a significant amount of carries to the rookie.
Overall (C ): Fairly short write up for Parker but I just don’t have much to say about him. I think it’s obvious his time as an RB1 getting 70% of the workload…just isn’t going to happen. Factor in an OL that lost Alan Faneca, and a tough schedule down the stretch, put that all together and I don’t like the end result too much. No way I am grabbing Parker in the late 3rd-middle 4th round.
"D+" tier
LenDale White (5.06)
Opp (C-): The presence of a 2nd RB will be felt. I believe he is in a split situation at best, and I doubt he will be getting many catches out of the backfield. Good thing is he shared a backfield with Reggie Bush in college so he can function even when he isn’t the primary back. I think some weeks White will be featured more than others.
OL (B-): They ran very well behind the LT Michael Roos last season…no wonder they paid that guy a big sum of money. Jake Scott will be the RG, and Amano/Harris will fight it out for the LG spot. Both starting Guards left or retired in the off season, but that’s OK because they needed to improve there anyways.
Sch (C ): JAX, MN, @Bal all before the week 6 bye. IND, GB, @Chi, @Jax in the 2nd half, playoffs are pretty alright with @Det, CLE, @Hou, and PIT to close things out…perhaps this schedule could be slightly higher.
Surround (D): Crumpler but not much else in the WR/TE stable to speak of. Young is not a great passing QB yet either.
Intangibles (C-): Chris Johnson is gaining on his touches day by day in camp. The OC came out and basically is trying to see how many carries a game he can give to Johnson, in other words he sounds like he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as much as possible…that doesn’t bode well for White.
Overall (D+): I don’t think he will be the guy that owners want as the season progresses.
Rudi Johnson (5.07)
Opp (C ): He won’t get many catches, and I think Kenny Watson will get his fair share of carries.
OL (D): It really has felt the loss of Steinbach IMO. Everyone thinks this OL is great because they only allowed 17 sacks…but they only were able to avg 3.7 ypc on the ground, that’s not good at all. Most of the line is good at pass blocking but well below average at run blocking. Plan accordingly folks.
Sch (D): This is a tough schedule. @Balt, TN, @NYG to open the season with @Dal and PITT also before the bye. Then it ends up JAX, @Hou, PHI, @Pit, BAL, @Indy, WAS, @Cle…those are all teams that will likely are playoff bound or factor into the mix, not a lot of easy match ups in there.
Surround (A): Palmer, Johnson, and Housh make for defenses to fall back and that is the only thing saving the Bengals running game.
Intangibles (B): He should bounce back some if he is 100% healthy, but I heard a report that he is having hammy problems already. That isn’t what I want to hear right now.
Overall (D+): I see little upside right now. He seems like he is breaking down.
Julius Jones (5.08)
Opp (D): He is splitting time with MoMo it seems, and Morris is having a great camp by all reports.
OL (C-): Wahle was brought in and will be an upgrade at the LG spo but this OL only put up 3.8 ypc last season. And they need to get a little younger at the Tackle spots and they failed to address that in the off season.
Sch (B-): It’s pretty soft most of the regular schedule but in weeks 13 and 14 he faces @Dal, and NE, neither will be easy although he might want to try some revenge on the Cowboys. I think the OL is going to be challenged pretty hard so even easy match ups might not mean much.
Surround (C ): Hass is fine, but Branch is injured, Nate is unreliable, and Engram is slow. They all might be acceptable FF starters but in terms of NFL talent, the skill positions here need help. Add in a rookie TE and I am just not very high on them.
Intangibles (C ): I was higher on him earlier in the summer but I am not hearing great news form the camp reports, as well as folks that are going and watching the Seahawks. Morris is outplaying him right now and that is not promising.
Overall (D+): Decent RB3, I liked him better when he 1st signed, not excited about what is happening right now.
Ahman Green (10.05)
Opp (D): I don’t see a big threat on the roster for him but I also don’t believe he will be asked to carry it more than about 13-18 times a game…somewhere in that band on a week to week basis.
OL (C ): Eric Winston is one of the top5 RT in the league IMO. Guy was going to be a top prospect until he tore his ACL during his Junior year at UM. Guess what? When he came back as a Senior he wasn’t 100%(shocking), and his draft stock fell, plain and simple. Now he is 100% and it shows. If Houston could get the right RB in place, there should be a lot of success to the right side of that OL.
Sch (D): It’s tough…@Pit, BAL, @TN, @Jax, INDY to open the season…who did the Texans piss off? JAX, @GB, TN, @Oak for the playoff run, not very good either.
Surround (B): Schaub, AJ, and Daniels have the making of a trio in Dallas. I like the skill position players that the Texans have either drafted or signed in recent years.
Intangibles (C ): Cannot be good that Green has suffered major injuries the past 2 out of 3 seasons, then you factor in his age…you might get some work out of him as an RB3 but I don’t see a big upside to him this year.
Overall (D+): Not going to be reaching for him for sure. He is a guy that teams who load up on WR early will want to watch as you will be drafting several middle of the orad guys and trying to get lucky in the middle to back half of your drafts.
Matt Forte (6.07)
Opp (C ): I do think Adrian Peterson factors into the receptions for the backs. Forte will likely get 12-15+ carries a game, maybe more.
OL (F): Anytime John St Clair is being mentioned as a potential starter at LT on your team things are not good. 3.1 ypc last season. Chris Williams has a pretty bad back injury that is keeping him out right now. This line is in bad bad shape IMO.
Sch (C-): Not a lot of cupcakes on this schedule. There certainly are worse but even the middle of the road teams are going to have the upper hand with this OL.
Surround (F): No QB, no WR to speak of, TE is sort of strength but it can’t save the rest of this mess.
Intangibles (C ): I don’t know Forte the way others do. I do know that I don’t like the Bears and I fully expect them to be picking near the top in 2009. I am not seeing the upside to him at the moment.
Overall (D/F): no more than an RB3 for me and he is gone too early and too many other RB I like to have to settle on Forte.
There are other RB obviously we need to discuss because they are either in the mix in a 2 back system, or we see potential if they get on the field. Let’s start with the rookies that have not been mentioned.
Rashard Mendenhall: I think he is a real threat for playing time and I doubt the Steelers drafted him in the 1st round only to wacth him stand on thesidelines as Parker gets another 300+ carry season. The real question is how much playing time RM will see and will he be the goal line back? I think he will be used to crash the end zone when Pitt gets down there around the goal line. Mendenhall has been going in the middle 6th and I think he makes a decent RB3.
Felix Jones: Barber is going to get more carries than Felix, please don’t have any delusions this year. But you have to like the impressive amount of talent that will surround Felix Jones…this is going to make him feel comfortable. I think he will have a few big games this year, I love him in a best ball league, and he probably will make a nice RB3/4 for most owners.
Chris “Flash” Johnson: We’re looking for nicknames for this kid and I think Flash is probably well suited. If anyone knows what they called him in college, please share. Johnson is having an outstanding camp and I expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan most Sundays. He only needs a seam to make a large play happen as evidence in his first game of the pre season the other night. I like this kid a lot, I think he’s special, he isn’t likely ever a top5 RB type but he has some special parts to his game that some folks have not seen…at least in awhile. You’re going to have weeks where he has 8/77/TD plus whatever he racks out of the backfield. He also is likely to show up in the box score with a couple 13/29 efforts that have owners screaming…but overall I think Johnson will show enough to earn a name like The Flash!
Ray Rice: Having a great camp so far by all reports. He will not push McGahee to the curb but I also believe he will see touches and he will make the most out of them. Not a guy you draft to count on but if he were to get on the field due to an injury in front of him, I think he could hold his own just fine.
Steve Slaton: If you get Green late, it might not be a bad idea to grab Slaton late as well. I see Slaton getting involved in the passing game early, but he is not an every down back in the NFL right now.
Ryan Torrain: rookie for Denver, I would leave him alone as he broke his elbow and is out up to 3 months…should not factor into the Denver running game at all this season.
There are some other rookies I am going to mention that could see some action but you might not want to draft necessarily. I expect in my weekly write ups to mention some of these guys at certain points of the season.
Jamaal Charles: He isn’t likely to get a ton of touches but if LJ were to go down again at some point this season, I would be interested in what Charles can do. He doesn’t have much talent on the OL or QB spots, but he did show some promise in college.
Tim Hightower: Another rookie that is having a nice camp, looks like he could be the clear #2…you take Edge in the late 3rd/early 4th and likely you can find Hightower available extremely late, so it’s a nice insurance policy for your RB2.
Mike Hart: Looks good so far, and if Addai were to go down, I think you would definitely see Hart out there mixing it up. Obviously they brought back Rhodes but Hart seems to have more upside, but maybe that is more Dynasty talk.
Chauncy Washington: Rookie from USC and in Jags camp. If Fred taylor were go to down, I don’t think MJD would be asked to shoulder the whole load. This is a guy you don’t really need to draft but I would keep an eye on him.
Justin Forsett: I love this kid out of Cal, he coems in and has a lot of guys ahead of him on the roster but really JJ, MM, and TJD don’t really scare me much at the moment. He will likely go undrafted but it won’t surprise me if he found his way onto the field at some point.
Next I want to highlight some guys that are not rookies but are not exactly cemented in their role on the team. Some of these guys have shown flashes but are not starters and may never be. But a few of them have some great potential.
DeAngelo Williams: Stewart is not healthy, and I look for DWill to be involved in the offense a lot early in the season. If he can be even average with that schedule the first 3 games of the season, that will go a long way to determine his role the rest of the season. I like him and I am willing to gamble on him as an RB3 in redrafts.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I am very eager to see what this kid is going to do in year 2. He had a great playoff run and I expect him to be involved in the passing game a lot. He had 50+ receptions his Senior year coming out of college IIRC, and that’s a ton for a college RB. He has some serious skills, and I wouldn’t let the 30 days he spent in the slammer because of something he did as a juvenile deter you from grabbing him in the draft. This is another guy I like as an RB3 if you wait awhile to fill that slot.
Leon Washington: In best ball leagues I like him a lot. You can’t really start him with confidence, but if he were the starter and had a chance to be out there with Favre on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down…I could see a Ryan Grant like year if he were to end up starting due to injury or poor play.
Lorenzo Booker: I see him getting touches, I really do. Westbrook is going to get his same load but I think Booker will be used every 3rd series possibly. They want to keep Westbrook fresh and Booker was a great pickup for the Eagles in the off season. In fact Philly had a pretty good off season with the draft and signings they made.
Jerious Norwood: I love where you can get this guy in most redrafts this year. I feel like he will see some real action and while most of the itme he is the COP back, he also will be out there on 3rd downs IMO. If he were to grab the starting spot due to injury, you might have something here. He has the speed that we are all going gaga for in other backs this year.
Maurice Morris: Definitely going to see time this year. Probably best suited for best ball leagues where you don’t have to worry about picking the right weeks to start him.
I have to put Fred Taylor in his own little place here. He gets no love in redrafts but he is another RB I keep on a short list if you went WR/WR early on and are looking to find some much needed help at RB. Fact is, Taylor hasn’t had double digit TDs in a good long while and he just doesn’t hit the top20 that much on a week to week basis. His time in the NFL is running out and I would prefer not to rely on this guy on my team.
Next I have a few vets that I think will see some action and produce when put in those situations.
Lamont Jordan: Many of us grabbed him in the very last round of more than a few spring/summer survivor format drafts. I think after Maroney that Jordan will see the most action including the dreaded vulture TDs down near the goal line. A new start, new team, chance to play for a Super Bowl…Jordan will be motivated.
Ricky Williams: Having an outstanding camp by all reports. He was the lone bright spot in the preseason the other night. And he has a guy in front of him that is coming off an ACL injury. Odds are Ricky will get action every week as long as he is healthy. Could creep up to RB3 status, maybe even higher should something happen to Ronnie Brown.
Chester Taylor: If anything happens to ADP, Taylor becomes the hottest RB in the league. Seriously, there is too much talent on the OL for Taylor to be anything other than good if he is the starter. Whther you have ADP or not, Taylor is an interesting pick in the 6th-7th round right now.
Warrick Dunn: I have a bet with David Yudkin, that Dunn scores over 100 points this year in non PPR leagues…I have the over. Dunn looks outstanding and I don’t think there is any reason to think Dunn will not have at least 800-1,000 yds rush/rec. His worst year he had 956 yds combined. He has never finished lower than 30th ever in non PPR leagues…most of the time he was between 12-24 and has been an ideal RB2 for a long long time. I am sure I will find room for Dunn as my RB3/4 in some leagues this year.
DeShaun Foster: If you select Frank Gore, plan on grabbing Foster in the 2nd half of your draft. I don’t think he has huge upside but if he is asked to play, he has enough skills to do some damage in a Mike Martz offense.
And finally I have a few backs that I don’t have a real place for but that you might think of grabbing late to fill out your rosters.
Pierre Thomas: I don’t like where you have to take Deuce who is coming off his 2nd major knee injury. Thomas got to play late in the season last year and shined. I believe he was playing ahead of Mendenhall at Illinois before he entered the NFL so the kid can play. I like Thomas later over Deuce for the price.
Tatum Bell: Figures to see action as they won’t run down Smith into the ground. Bell didn’t do very much of anything last year and he should be viewed more as an RB4/5 selection.
Andre Hall: In case you don’t know, this is Selvin’s back up for Denver. I love the fact you can get him very late right now in most redrafts. Great insurance for Selvin as well. I don’t see Michael Pittman in the action all that much. And Pittman’s upside is slim too.
Justin Fargas/Michael Bush: Fargas wll likely see action early but as the season progresses I would expect McFadden to get more and more touches. Bush has looked good in camp but where does he fit in on this roster right now? Goal line I suppose but he can’t steal away touches between the 20s from DMac and Fargas.
Fred Jackson: Has looked good in preseason and limited touches during the season as well. Fred is a nice find late in the draft. If you grab Lynch in the 1st, I would lock up Fred Jackson when you reach the 2nd half of your draft.
Kenny Watson: Did very well when asked to play last year. If you are making plans with Rudi then you might as well grab Watson late. I can’t see how he doesn’t play during the year.
Chris Brown: I had heard he wasn’t 100% health wise which has me very leery. I would probably pass on him at almost all points of the draft. I can’t see him being dominate in this offense.
Kevin Jones: Too much risk for me at almost any point in the draft. They asked him to lose weight, and the Bears is not a very explosive offense in any facet of the game.
Adrian Peterson: In PPR leagues this is a poor man’s Kevin Faulk…actually maybe a rich man’s because he did have 50+ receptions last year, racked up somewhere over 900 yds but he is never mentioned anywhere. I can think of a couple scenarios where he might see action.
Brandon Jackson: They talk about this guy but I can’t believe that Ryan Grant is going to lose touches to Jackson anytime soon.
And that about does it for me. I left out a few back ups here and there but overall I tried to think about scenarios where backs could succeed if they are pressed into action. I hope you all enjoyed this dissertati
Once again, I will explain what you will be reading so that you understand why I even put this together in the first place. First off, I think hard number projections are risky. They are easy to put together on guys like Portis and LT, but those numbers can really work against you when you get married to them. So what I like to do is combine 5 different categories into a grading system very similar to what you are used to in school. Allow me to share the 5 categories and their weighted average.
Opportunity 30%: How many touches are they going to get? Not a hard number but with what range can we think about where these guys might fall. Are there any threats to the numbers of touches from either Offensive Philosophy by the coach or the talent of the other RB on the field? Those are important factors in this score.
Offensive Line 30%: How good are the 5 uglies up front? Plain and simple, can they open holes for the RB or not.
Schedule 20%: Does it look easy or hard? Nothing is fool proof but I always think if you are off on a team that isn’t as strong as you thought, that gets offset by another team that ends up being much stronger than you expected.
Surrounding Talent 10%: Is Tom Brady your QB, or is McPenHenBeck your starter? It matters.
Intangibles 10%: A way for me to factor in things that the other categories do not allow.
I add all those things together and apply actual grades to each category for all 32 starters. I can’t tell you where to grab all these guys, I have to let the ADP out there in cyberland sort of dictate that. I can tell you that I think my system is fair, and it allows for potential break out or surprise players emerge from an otherwise hard to sift thru bunch starting about the end of the 1st round.
Let’s jump into this and what I have done is not list them in order form 1-50 or whatever, but rather I have tiers based on overall grades for one final grade that places them into the tiers. I don’t even have an order within the tiers really so don’t get bogged down on Gore is 15th…or wherever I have him listed, refer to the tier, this will help. I put the ADP next to what I anticipate will be the starter for each team. This should help you find value as you are reading thru.
It’s long…28 pages in Word so I’ll understand if you don’t get thru it all in one sit. Enjoy and please be excellent to each other, thanks.
“A” Tier
LaDainian Tomlinson (1.01)
Opp (A+): Not only is he perhaps the most elite RB in all of FF, but he also doesn’t compete for touches and has no real back up to take part of the load from him. Is there any reason he won’t have at least 300-320 carries and 50+ receptions? This guy is hardly ever going to be overlooked.
OL (B): They are solid to very good on the left side of the OL at run blocking, but the right side of this line has room for improvement. 4.2 ypc is not too shabby as a unit.
Sch (A): CAR, @Den, NYJ, @Oak, @Mia, @Buff, @NO…only NE at home is really a tough one in the 1st half of the season. Wk 13 on he has ATL, OAK, @KC, @TB, and DEN…nothing there that should really shut him down.
Surround (A): All pro at TE, good solid QB, Chambers is the WR1, and the defense is going to put the offense on the field and also some short fields too.
Intangibles (A): Have to feel that SD will do very well this year and maybe not have to travel anywhere come playoff time.
Overall (A): He scores an A of course but I feel like FBG that he is the clear #1 RB in FF. He might finish 2nd or 3rd, but he won’t finish outside of the top3-5 if his track record is any indication. He is a sure thing at the top of the food chain, grab him and be happy if you have the chance.
LT gets his own tier again this year.
“A-/B+” tier
Adrian Peterson (1.02)
Opp (B): I still think we will see Chester Taylor getting more carries than some ADP owners would like. Peterson is a good candidate to touch the ball quite a bit but I also think they will try and keep him as fresh as possible. ADP is the entire offense for the most part…there is no QB that is going to keep the defenses honest as of right now.
OL (A): McKinnie might get suspended and that would be bad, however this OL is deadly at running the football. 5.3 ypc last season as a unit, you have to like what opens the holes in front of him.
Sch (A): @GB, INDY, CAR, @TN to open the season…some challenges but these are not lockdown rush defenses either. Then it is @NO, DET, @Chi, bye, HOU, GB, @TB, @Jax, CHI…look at the playoffs with @Det, @AZ, and ATL at home…should find some big weeks in there.
Surround (C ): No QB, the WR and TE are young or not frontline talent as of right this moment. The defense is very tough along the DL but thins out at LB and in the secondary some.
Intangibles (A): I do think ADP is bound for success. The Vikings are contenders in the division if nothing else.
Overall (A-): He sort of walks a fine line between A-/B+ status for me. I think owners that take him 1st overall are just foolish and even if he does live up to the hype, there are at least 1-2 RB I would want before ADP for various reasons.
Brian Westbrook (1.03)
Opp (B+): He is going to get about 15 carries a game and likely about 5 catches to boot. Anytime you have an RB1 that is pretty sure of touching it 20 times a game; that is all you can ask for really. I know they brought in Booker to take some of the pressure and load off of Westbrook. I think that says something about what is on the roster right now if they traded for Booker.
OL (A): They are great at run blocking, a 4.7 ypc avg. Tra Thomas and John Runyan are still pretty solid book end Tackles, and Shaun Andrews at RG, Jamaal Jackson at Center, this is a very good run blocking OL…and that is what we really focus on here.
Sch (C+): Starts off St.L, @Dall, PITT, @Chi, WASH, @SF, Bye…a bit harder than what we have seen to this point. @NYG, CLE, @Wash for the playoffs.
Surround (B): McNabb really keeps this score strong but I don’t particularly think Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and LJ Smith make for a Pro bowl receiving core…they don’t. The defense is OK but nothing like they were 3-4 years ago when they went to the NFC Championship 4 years in a row.
Intangibles (B): I think Westbrook has shown that he misses a little bit of a time most of the time. He hasn’t started all 16 games in a season ever in his 6 years in the league. He has only missed 1 full game in each of the past 2 seasons to be fair.
Overall (B+): Should be productive as always, only concern is how many touches are taken from him.
MB III (1.8)
Opp (B-): Is Barber going to be leaned on for 25 touches a game? No way…but he should see more touches to the tune of a 65/35 split IMO with Felix Jones. Barber should get around 15 carries a game and likely 3-5 balls thrown his way during the game too. 15-18 touches a game should be expected.
OL (B+): Pretty solid group that returns all 5 starters. 4.2ypc last season as a team.
Sch (B): @Cle, PHI, @GB, WAS, CIN, @AZ, @St.L, TB, @NYG…even teams that might give them a fight just look like they will be in shootouts…none of that is bad for Dallas skill position players. @Pitt, NYG, and BAL during the playoffs is not that great but the regular season has a lot of juicy match ups.
Surround (A): Talent everywhere
Intangibles (A): Finally gets his chance to really show off as the RB1, I think he will shine.
Overall (B+): I’m high on Barber but realize he is going to be giving way at times for Felix Jones.
Steven Jackson (1.4)
Opp (A+): In almost every game he played in last year where he was healthy and the Rams were not completely out of it, and some where they were…he had rushing totals of 21, 30, 22, 23, 23, 20, 18, 24…and ’06 was very similar. Linehan is still the HC for the time being so it would be safe to assume the same type of workload.
OL (C+): Alex Barron was the only starting OL who was able to play all 16 games last season. No team could have performed well with what happened to them at OL last season, plain and simple. Signed Bell(LG) away from the Titans and he is viewed as an upgrade for them.
Sch (B): @Phi, NYG, @Sea, BUFF to open the season. @Wash, DAL, and @NE after a bye week…but then AZ, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA, @AZ, SEA, SF, @Atl…nice way to finish the season.
Surround (B): Holt is still a top level WR, Bulger when healthy is a top NFL QB, the defense is making strides but they give up the long ball…that means quick scores that put the offense back on the field.
Intangibles (C+): My problem with SJax has been my fear of him getting hurt. He runs with reckless abandon but on that turf he can do a lot of damage when he is always seeking contact. I don’t know if SJax will change up his style but he is destined for the IR if he continues to run the same way.
Overall (B+): SJax could be a real force in the 2nd half of the season. He should see an increase in receptions which means more touches. He is not in danger of losing any carries other than wearing down which he doesn’t do in games.
“B/B- “ tier
Marshawn Lynch (1.11)
Opp (A-): He is the man in Buffalo, no doubt about it. 280 carries in 13 games averages out to 21+ carries a game. He never carried it less than 18 times a game whenever he started, and he did that as a rookie. Only 18 receptions but I blame the QB play more than anything. I see his touches increasing this year.
OL (B): Their LT, Peters is pretty pedestrian at run blocking. 6’8” 365 lb RT, Langston Walker, is a pure amuler on the right side of the line. Bills avg 4.6 ypc behind Walker, although his size makes him not so athletic, so it’s doubtful he can throw off any DBs with a sweep wide type block. Derrick Dockery was signed alst season and improved the LG play on the line tremendously. The Center position is a bit uncertain but overall this line is not terrible at run blocking and I see improvement going into 2008. \
Sch (B+): SEA, @Jax, Oak, @StL, @AZ to start…@KC, SF, MIA, @NYJ, @Den down the stretch. I like his schedule a lot and think he will see plenty of good match ups.
Surround (D): This is what hurts Lynch. I downgrade based on terrible QB play at the present, no TE, WR are very streaky and pretty young outside of Lee Evans.
Intangibles (B): I like the kid and think he is going to shine this season. A top10 finish is surely within reach if he just plays all 16 games, and I see a dark horse for top5 if things go right. I am not as high in dynasty as I am this season, but I think Lynch stands a good chance to be special.
Overall (B): A solid B grade with a 3.1 and there is room for even a higher stop point for Lynch in 2008. Everyone that was crying about picking in the middle of the 1st round…you have lots of options.
Selvin Young (6.06)…but not for long
And the shock and awe of reading this thread/article just kicked up a few notches. If you are still sitting in your chair, please remain calm and the oxygen masks above you will fall down, gently place the mask over your face and breathe normally. For those of you that already were thinking some of the things I am going to highlight, please don’t hate me as I am going to likely increase the ADP of Young in the next 2-3 minutes.
Opp (B): This guy had 35 catches as a rookie and splitting time. I see a WR corp that is far from dominant right now, a QB that may or may not play better, and a defense that is shaky…and that spells a lot of touches for Young. There is no other RB on the roster that is a threat. Torrain is gone for the season most likely. Young in limited touches last season avg over 5 ypc. He was top 40 in non PPR leagues and he only touched the ball 180 some odd times…he should be north of 300 between carries and receptions this season. He is 5’11”, 215 lbs right now…almost ideal size, the knock on him was his size. Only thing I don’t like when a RB adds 10 lbs of muscle is that the speed can sometimes take a hit. But even if he avg 4.4-4.6 ypc he will still be a strong runner.
OL (B): OL managed to avg 4.6 ypc basically without Nalen and Hamilton much of the season last year. People can blast away all they like but the fact is the Broncos can run the football. They were 9th in the NFL last season and 5th in ypc.
Sch (A): SD in week 2, Jags and Pats back to back in week 6 and 7, he will see a bye week and then it’s blast off time…MIA, @Cle, @Atl, OAK, @NYJ, KC, @Car, BUF…what team do you really fear here down the stretch? There are some soft run schedules for quite a few RB this year but the schedule in place for a Denver team that typically can run the football looks pretty tasty.
Surround (C ): Cutler, Scheffler, DJax, and a suspended Brandon Marshall doesn’t strike me as anything better than average right now.
Intangible (B): I see a guy that is being left for grabs in rounds 4-6 and I think for anyone that wants to go WR/WR in the 1st/2nd, or QB/WR, or some combo, this guy should be on your radar to grab.
Overall (B): No need to reach for him as he will be there for sure in the 4th round but I think some owners were wanting to take this guy as an RB3 sometime in the 5th-7th…just not going to happen as all signs point to him starting and doing well in Denver. I would be dishonest if I didn’t share 1 stat from the great Jeff Tefertiller of FBG, and that is Young runs for 6+ ypc in the 1st half, and then he drops to 3.2 ypc in the 2nd half. You can read that stat however you like but it doesn’t stop me from grabbing this guy in every redraft where I am slotted for a late 1st round pick and might have to let RB slide to the 3/4 turn.
Joseph Addai (1.5)
Opp (A): The fact is he will get the lion’s share of the workload. They aren’t going to pull him on 3rd down so they can get the ball into Rhodes or Hart’s hands…he might not get 320 carries but I see him getting 65-75% of the carries, surely isn’t in a 2 back rotation.
OL (C+): This OL is better at pass protection than they are at running the ball. 3.8 ypc as a team last season…I’m actually being generous. If this were pass protection, they would get an A most likely, but it’s more about run blocking down here.
Schedule (D): Worse than you might think…CHI, @MN, JAX to start off the season…ouch!!! Bye week then @Hou, BAL, @GB, @TN, NE, @Pitt…where are the cupcakes in this schedule? Hou, @SD, @Cle, CIN, DET…this is not too terrible at the end of the year but then they see Jax in week 16. This is pretty tough for most teams. If Indy had a great run blocking OL I wouldn’t be so tough with the schedule but something has to give.
Surround (A): No question about it. Pro Bowlers everywhere and at key positions on this team.
Intangibles (A): Guy has posted back to back top10 FF seasons his 1st 2 years in the league, good things happen with him typically.
Overall (B): OL and Schedule has me worried and I would not reach too high for Addai.
Jamal Lewis (3.02)
Opp (B): They will not be throwing to Lewis out of the backfield a ton but he still garners a majority of the carries. The other backs on the roster avg about 4-5 carries so Lewis is the guy at all times if they need a yard or two on the ground. He is not removed when they get near the goal line…not a ton of downside here despite the lack of pass receptions.
OL (A): One of the best run blocking OL in all of football. I want to share something that everyone needs to understand. This category and the next category are directly related. People are dogging the Browns and that they have a tough schedule…sure it’s not easy but they have a “Dominant” run blocking OL…so no matter who they face unless it’s the Minnesota Vikings every week, they stand a good chance of coming out the winner in the battle of the trenches. Joe Thomas was named to the Pro Bowl as a rookie LT…let me repeat that Joe Thomas was named to the Pro Bowl as a rookie LT. Next to him is Eric Steinbach. The left side of this line averages 5.14 ypc…wow! Haley, Tucker, and Shaffer make the middle to right side of this line and they hold their own just fine.
Sch (C ): I would put it higher but I do see what others are looking at. What they are missing though is the Browns have a great offense that can run and pass and is anchored down by the OL…relax Cleveland fans, you’re going to the playoffs this year, no doubt in my mind…wait a minute…no it went away never mind, you’ll be fine. Starting in week 10…DEN, @Buf, HOU, INDY, @TN, @Phi, CIN…it isn’t the monster everyone makes it out to be.
Surround (A): Braylon, KW II, Stallworth, Anderson/Quinn, this team is loaded on offense, and it’s the most talent ever assembled around Lewis at the skill positions.
Intangibles (C ): Age has got to be a factor at some point. No? Wear n Tear is creeping up here as well. I like Lewis and his chances but I also think at some point in the season we may see an injury and get a glimpse of Wright…but don’t worry, you can get the insurance policy way late, so that makes Lewis all that better to grab at his current ADP.
Overall (B): I like Lewis a lot, he gets the lion’s share, no real threat to him, great OL to block in front of him, talent all along the skill positions…this is a solid pick.
Clinton Portis (1.10)
Opp (A): This is what owners enjoy, the fact is he gets a lot of touches, and the rumor is that with the installment of a WCO from Zorn, that Portis will get into open space more, and also get plenty of touches.
OL (C+): What on this OL has changed? They have an always underwhelming twosome at Tackle with Chris Samuel and Jansen who gets injured on the other side. They only managed a 3.8 ypc avg as a group. It just isn’t anything that special, sorry. And yes they suffer injuries, what has changed? The first few days of camp they had guys going down left and right. There is no depth here so unless you are telling me they can play all 16 games as a unit, I see no reason to bump this group up, in fact I am being generous here.
Sch (C ): Not that easy and not over the top hard. 2nd half after the bye week is no picnic with DAL, @Sea, NYG, @Balt, @Cin, PHI…5 of those 6 are thought to factor into the playoff potential teams.
Surround (B-): I don’t think Campbell is as bad as I once thought…he is slowly moving out of the project stage and into a viable starter. The offense from all reports seem to be passing the ball a lot better under Zorn. I like Moss, Cooley, and they have a lot of talent now at WR with their rookie picks, this is not a bad group of skill position players.
Intangibles (B+): He’s Clinton Portis…4th, 5th, 11th, 6th, 36th(Injured), and 4th the past 6 seasons…guy is almost a lock for top 10 at the end of the season. Can you say consistency?
Overall (B-): Most of you know I was down on Portis this summer. (MOP censored and edited an entire paragraph where he was about to put his foot in his mouth again)…but enough of that. You won’t lose by taking Portis in your redrafts, and I suspect he might have a few more BIG games this year with a new offense.
Frank Gore (1.07)
Again, I know some of you have fallen out of your chair because I don’t have Gore up quite as high as some of the other sites or mags you have been gobbling up. And I understand the backlash but at the same time, I have to go with what the criteria is giving me.
Opp (B): I don’t think Gore is going to approach 300 carries but I do think 250 is about the floor, and I also can’t think of a reason he shouldn’t clear 50-60+ catches again. You add them together and I think 300+ touches is almost a given here.
OL (C-): I could probably grade it even lower if I tried but I don’t want to bury Gore either. Starting RG Justin Smiley left for Miami, and Larry Allen has been in and out of retirement, but he is likely a shell of his former self at this point. 2007 1st round pick Joe Staley will rotate from RT to LT to protect the blindside of ??? Jonas Jennings will man the RT spot but he has missed something like 21 games over the past 3 seasons…not very reliable, and the Niners don’t have a ton of depth.
Sch (A): AZ, @Sea, DET, @NO to open the season…HELLO!!! After the bye in week 9, he plays @AZ, St L, @Dal, @Buf, NYJ, @Mia, @St L…outside of Dallas where are the really tough teams against the run?
Surround (C ): QB is a mystery, I do like Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce joining Battle to form a nice trio at WR, and Vernon Davis if he can be used by Martz will be a real threat.
Intangibles (A): Most RB succeed in a Mike Mrtz offense even if they don’t rush for 1,500 yds on a regular basis. Gore has a lot of talent and I think it will be maximized by Martz.
Overall (B-): I do like Gore, but I have some real issues with the OL here. I know people are taking him top5 off the board…not sure I can agree with that at the moment. I need to see that OL, and I want to see how they respond with everyone being shuffled around and new players entering…there sure can’t be much cohesion along that line right now.
“C+” tier
Brandon Jacobs (3.09)
Opp (C+): Some will be surprised by this grade but when you look at his game logs, Jacobs really does get a lion’s share of the touches when he is starting. In 10-11 games he had almost 225 touches including a 5.0 ypc and over 1,000 yds rushing. 5 more solid games and I think he would have had over 300 touches pretty easy. But I also think they want to keep him fresh, and I see an increased role for Ahmad Bradshaw, and you can’t just let ard sit on the sideline and never get into the game.
OL (A): It’s a good group. Diehl and McKenzie are under rated bookend Tackles. They put up 4.6 ypc on the ground last year…and let’s not forget all those great seasons Tiki Barber had and almost made him look like a HoF candidate. They didn’t miss a beat last season at opening up holes. All 5 starters returning from a SB team, you have to like it.
Sch (B-): Not that bad really. WAS, @St L, CIN, SEA, @Cle, SF to open the season. @Was, PHI, @Dal, CAR to close the season. Better in the earlier part of the season but when it turns cold, most running games still push forward as passing games tend to slow down some.
Surround (B-): Loss of Shockey will hurt some but Eli, Plax, Toomer, and some good young talent at WR seems like a pretty good surrounding crew.
Intangibles (C ): Injuries always seem to come up when you talk about Jacobs so it has to be factored in somewhere.
Overall (C+): Better than avg IMO, and certainly will have some ups and downs but his game logs last year point to a RB that when healthy can be top15-20 a lot. In PPR leagues amongst RB, Jacobs finished 13th-wk5, 6th-wk7, 9th-wk8, 20th-wk10, 7th-wk11, 9th-wk 15, 3rd-wk16…so you can see when he was actually on the field he had some absolutely terrific weeks. It’s possible when the weather turns colder, he gets hotter. It’s painful to tackle a 260+ lb Halfback when it’s 32 degrees outside…heck it’s painful in 80 degree weather too but I think it’s even worse when it’s cold. Don’t sleep on Jacobs, but don’t overspend either. Could be a surprise RB2 this year.
Larry Johnson (2.01)
Opp (A): At this point we know Herm Edwards, no matter what he says, will run his starting RB into the ground if need be. Curtis Martin had a ton of carries when Herm was the coach of the Jets, and then he gave LJ 400+ carries a couple years ago, and I can’t see how LJ doesn’t get another 320+ carries and a bunch of catches unless he ends up injured again.
OL (D-): Easily one of the worst units in the National Football League…Willie Roaf and Will Shields, both HoF candidates left in a 12 month period and they simply will never be replaced. Branden Albert, the rookie LT will miss all of training camp due to a foot injury…do you think he will be behind the 8 ball on the learning curve? Rudy Niswanger-C, Adrian Jones-LG, and Damion McIntosh-RT don’t do much for me. Brian Waters is their best OL player at LG. I’m sorry but they have 3 potential starters on opening day that have never played a lick in the NFL…oof!
Sch (B): Unlike last season this year the Chiefs will catch a break, however their OL isn’t good enough to exploit it. After he has a bye in week 6, let’s look at the home stretch…TN, @NYJ, TB, @SD, NO, BUFF, @Oak, @Den, SD, MIA, @Cinci…plenty of decent match ups for LJ this season really.
Surround (C ): Bowe and Gonzo have to be taken into measure here. I realize Croyle is el stinko right now but there is talent in this offense at the skill positions outside of the QB.
Intangibles (B): I want to believe that LJ will turn it around and return to glory. The reality is that his OL is putrid but with so many touches, he almost has to be able to rack up 100 yds week in and week out.
Overall (C+): I think LJ could be value if he gets any help from his OL. This is a guy that put up a lot of points in the last few years and to be able to maybe grab him on the ½ turn could pay dividends for owners. I am just not liking his OL, and the bad QB play they have at the moment is not very inspiring.
Ryan Grant (2.07)…and falling
Opp (B): The Pack are definitely committed to Ryan Grant at this point. He just signed for a much larger contract than what he was expected to play for. I like Grant in spurts but there is a major reason he is falling down the boards right now.
OL (C+ ): The Pack fans just rolled their eyes at this grade but you have to look at what they actually do on the ground. 3.9 ypc behind the LT is not all that great, however Clifton is a great pass protector and he had to be because of…The Packers totaled 4.1 ypc for the season and that put them at 12th but they only ranked 21st in total yds rushing…that might have more to do with the offensive play calling but time will tell.
Sch (C ): MN, @Det, DAL, @TB to open the season…3 potential tough defenses in the 1st 4 games. Let’s play this out. They lose what’s his name, Grant might come out of the box slow, good luck trying to work a trade. They come out of the bye in week 9 to face TN and MN on the road, then home for Chicago, that won’t be fun. There are some softer games sprinkled in but this is far from the cupcake schedule other backs have.
Surround (A): You can argue this all day long, but what teams have a Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson form the 1-4 spots at WR, Doanld Lee is no slouch, and I think Rodgers has the tools to succeed. You can downgrade this if you want, but one of the things that was keeping Rodgers higher earlier in the summer was the talent he had around him under center.
Intangibles (B): I do think the Pack stand tall behind what they have. Grant will be given every option to succeed. I also think the departure of Brett Favre is going to have an impact on him.
Overall (C+): Has been going too high for my taste, but he may fall a lot now, and become good value during the upcoming redrafts.
Maurice Jones-Drew (2.10)
Opp (C ): Always hard to grade this because he simply never will be a 20 carry a game guy. 10-12 carries at best and then he gets about 2-3 receptions on average…it’s not like he gets 4-5 catches a game which would put him up a lot more in PPR leagues.
OL (B+): 4.6 ypc in 2007. Meester, the Center, is out for at least the 1st 3-4 games of the regular season which isn’t good. They are great at running to the right side of the OL behind Tony Pashos who they grabbed form Baltimore before the 2007 season. Manuwai and Williams will once agin make a good strong run blocking tandem at the Guard positions.
Sch (C ): Very up and down. They face Minnesota, but they also see the Bengals. They have to play Tennesse twice, but they also see Detroit and Denver…it’s not easy, but the OL is pretty good and I think they have the advantage more than not.
Surround (C ): Fact is the WR1 and WR2 spots are injured right now and if they ahd to start right now, Troy Williamson and Dennis Northcutt would be the starting WR…YIKES!!! TE is nothing special at the moment, and Garrard really doesn’t get me excited. Fairly pedestrian if you ask me.
Intangibles (A): They guy seems to find the end zone and he also seems to make the most out of his touches. I think Fred Taylor will disappoint and frustrate owners this year, so I expect a slight increase at times in the way of touches for MJD. But I also realize that he has likely hit his ceiling the past 2 seasons as well.
Overall (C+): I am going to simply close with this…I’m not sure if I have already seen the best of MJD or if the best is yet to come.
Laurence Maroney (3.06)
Opp (D): If Sammy Morris wasn’t stealing away so many touches, now you have Lamont Jordan who looked pretty spunky the other night. We are going to get more into this but Maroney is a very dangerous pick to me right now until we know what the actual plan will be.
OL (B): Very solid, if not spectacular. Lot of depth, at this point we all know the pAts are pretty good on offense all the way around. Only a 4.1 ypc but I also think that had something to do with the guy we are discussing right now.
Sch (A): Just silly that they have a ridiculously easy schedule…if they hadn’t had as much turnover as they had in the off season I would think they could go 16-0 again. KC, @NYJ, MIA, @SF…what a nice soft starting schedule. DEN, St L, @Indy, BUF, NYJ, @Mia, PIT, @Sea, @Oak, AZ…you gotta really try hard to not like this schedule.
Surround (A): Brady, Moss, Welker…what else do you need to open up the running game really?
Intangibles (D): I don’t like that they brought in LaMont Jordan other than the fact that I now can draft Jordan confidently. I grabbed him in about the last round of every best ball or survivor draft I could in the off season…I really felt he got the raw end of the deal in Oakland . A new attitude in New England and I think Jordan will eat into Maroney’s playing time for sure.
Overall (C+): I look at this slot more as a week to week situation. The OL, Schedule, and Surrounding talent is in place to make any starting RB a quality play, but we don’t know what the carries are going to be for each back. I feel Sammy Morris might not make the team if Jordan proves his worth…I can even see scenarios where Faulk could be gone…and is it out of the realm of possibilities that Maroney is dealt right before the season begins if they think Jordan can carry the load? I’m not saying this is a sure thing but I don’t rule out anything with the Pats.
Darren McFadden (4.07)
Opp (B): I really don’t have a lot to base this on but I just cannot believe he was taken in the top5 but is stuck in a 2 back rotation system unless he proves he cannot handle the load. Oakland has a rookie basically under Center so I don’t think this is going to be a wide open offense. In fact I think DMac, Fargas, and even Bush may all have their moments during the season but I also think McFadden will get at least 15-18 touches a game or Al Davis’ head will simply explode.
OL (C+): The Raiders avg 4.1 ypc last season. They have 3 of those starters returning and have added John Wade from TB, and Kwame Harris will likely step in at LT for Barry Sims which might be an upgrade to some extent. Not the OL that some people think but it’s not horrible by any stretch, possibly even improving.
Sch (C+): DEN, @KC, @ Buf to open the season. Actually it is a very nice schedule for most of the season but look what he faces in weeks 14 and 15, typically the opening of the playoffs in most leagues…@SD, NE, those two games sort of dampen my enthusiasm a bit. It’s the timing of those games more than anything. Would rather they played them in weeks 1 and 2.
Surround (D): JeMarcus might be good long term but he is not a top20 QB, not even top25 likely. Javon Walker wants to retire, Curry is not a WR1, other than the 2nd year TE Zach Miller, I don’t like a lot of the skill position players presently.
Intangibles (B): I like his skill set and think he will show some flashed of why people loved him coming out of college. The fact is though he doesn’t play on a high octane offense yet, and he will have a learning curve tog et over as he enters the NFL.
Overall (C+): A guy that is very interesting to take in PPR leagues on the 3/ 4 turn.
“C” tier
Earnest Graham (4.02)
Opp (C-): I’m not as optimistic that he is going to carry the load. I think you will see other RB come in and out of the line up, especially Dunn on 3rd downs catching balls out of the backfield, and in passing situations I also think Dunn will be on the field. I do see where Graham had 49 receptions last year, 13 in one game…I’ll talk more about Warrick Dunn later in this thread.
OL (B): Sears, Faine, Joseph, and Trueblood are all set at their positions. The one spot that might have some problems is LT where Pettigout has battled injury and the alternative is Donald Penn. Overall this is a pretty good OL, still room for growth, will be interesting how they respond this year.
Sch (B+): Opens with @NO, ATL, @Chi, GB, @Den, CAR, SEA, @Dal, @KC…quite a few good match ups with a strong OL in front of him. @Det, NO, @Car, @Atl, SD, OAK to close the season…overall there is a lot of nice match ups on the schedule with very few shut down defenses.
Surround (C ): Galloway is great but aging, and he is more of a flyer than a guy that will go over the middle and move the sticks. Garcia is also aging, and he is pretty avg at this point. No TE, lack of a 2nd WR…they likely should be lower than average really.
Intangibles (B-): I like Graham on the surface, but you did a little deeper and you fins that he does have some things working against him. I just think he will be getting no more than about 50-60% of the touches for the RB. More carries and receptions which hurts him in PPR.
Overall (C ): The OL will help make him a better play than he probably should be. I’m not worried a bit about Cadillac this season but I do see Dunn getting plenty of touches in this offense. Don’t reach for Graham.
Thomas Jones (5.01)
Opp (C ): He is going to get a good amount of the carries, but I still see Washington gobbling up catches and potential touches. This could score out higher if he takes a more traditional role with Favre taking the snaps.
OL (B): You can’t grade them on the 3.8 ypc they amassed with Clemens/Pennington starting, and the addition of Alan Faneca cannot be undersold here. I think they will be much improved at running the football, and hopefully the addition of Brett Favre will
Help with the urn game even more.
Sch (C+): NE and SD in the 1st 3 weeks. After the week 5 bye there is nice a soft part where they will face CIN, @Oak, KC, @Buf, St L…should be some good games in there. Den, @SF, BUF, @Sea for the playoff stretch.
Surround (B): Favre is an upgrade at QB, plain and simple. Coles and COtchery are not flashy but I think they will be improved with Favre.
Intangibles (B): You have to love the addition of Brett Favre. Jones has some skills and look at what Favre has done with guys like Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, it’s long and distinctive list.
Overall (C ): Jones is another guy I think you want on your radar on the 3/ 4 turn if you go WR/WR or WR/QB on the 1/ 2 turn.
Reggie Bush (3.04)
Opp (C ): How far do you drop a guy that could grab 80 balls in PPR leagues, but this player is proving quickly he may never run like he did in college ever again. He will surely split the carries at best with whoever else is starting in the back field whether it is Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas.
OL (C-): They are pretty pedestrian at opening holes. In fact they only had a 3.7 ypc last season. They are fairly deep though and that is a good sign. They should see improvement this season but we will have ot wait and see. A stronger OL and the running game in NO would be as desirable as the passing game and all its components.
Sch (B+): It’s nice with an opening section of TB, @Was, @Den, SF, MN, OAK, @Car, SD…the tough defenses will be at home where I think NO has a clear advantage. After the bye week they will have games @Atl, @KC, GB, @TB, Atl, @Chi, @Det…Over half those teams are likely not making the playoffs and have fairly weak defenses including against the run.
Surround (A): Brees, Colston, and now Shockey make for an explosive set of skill positions. Time for Bush to get on the train or be thrown into exile by FF owners.
Intangibles (C ): I want to believe he can do it, but he has had so many chances and there is a great passing game to lead the way and he simply has not produced. Yes he had 4 TD in 1 game, and he will grab 80 receptions perhaps but when he is only getting 4-5 yds and sometimes less on each of his catches…drives FF owners nuts.
Overall (C ): Surrounding talent, a pretty soft schedule, and his god given abilities should be enough…maybe he needs to kick Ms Kardashian and her bubble butt to the curb until he can really become the superstar in the NFL everyone envisioned when he entered the NFL.
Willis McGahee (2.04)
Opp (B): I had this much higher earlier in the summer but Ray Rice seems more and more likely to at least be in on 3rd downs. I don’t care what the coaches say, Rice is suited to get the ball out of the backfield much more than McGahee although I believe he had a career high with 43 receptions last season. I attribute that to the absence of Heap and Clayton from the line up…look for those numbers to slide down some.
OL (C- ): It’s not horrible with Ogden retiring but it is far from dominating. 3 starters from last season that were shuffled around will now move back to their natural positions. Fact is Ogden went to 11 straight Pro Bowls and is going to Canton…those type of guys are never easy to replace although it is safe to say that Ogden might have skated by on his laurels over the past 2-3 seasons…IMHO. Pay close attention to Bob Henry’s camp reports as there have been injuries along the Tackle positions as well.
Sch (C ): So so, and a little tougher in the 2nd half of the season. CIN, @Hou, CLE, @Pitt, TEN, @Indy, @Mia, Oak, @Cle…and down the stretch it’s @Cin, WAS, PITT, @Dal
Surround (D ): I penalize hard when the QB situation looks almost as bad presently as what the Miami Dolphins are about to unroll…and you have little speed and a lot of injuries to the receiving corp. Not too thrilled with any of this.
Intangibles (B): He did do well last season and I’m not sure the QB play could get a lot worse this year. Clayton and Heap should bounce back although Heap already went down in training camp, not sure of the extent of the injury.
Overall (C ): I had McGahee a lot higher on my board earlier this summer, now he has slid down to the ranks of just average. I still don’t blame owners for grabbing him in the 2nd round but I don’t know that he will live up to those expectations after he produced such a consistent 2007 campaign.
Edge (4.10)
Opp (B): Certianly he gets the majority of the carries. He isn’t asked to do a lot in the passing game. In Indy you could always count on 40-55 catches but in AZ he is more in the 20-30 range it seems.
OL (D): They only allowed 24 sacks last season but that 3.6 ypc avg they seem to keep posting, isn’t helping their grade in the run game. The line is actually pretty good at run blocking to the right side, pass blocking to the left…on a sidenot, how does that help Leinart exactly? Anyways, this grade could move up and Edge might climb a few spots…but the fact is he is going in the 4th round, so if the grade is higher, it simply is a bonus for you.
Sch (B): Real nice early, so an added bonus here might be that Edge can come out of the gates fast and help you leverage a trade. @SF, MIA, @Wash, @NYJ, BUF, very nice start. MN and NE in weeks 15 and 16 will not be fun.
Surround (B): Fitz and Boldin make perhaps the most effective 1-2 punch at WR. TE is lacking and if Warner is actually the starter at some point, this is anice group at the skill positions.
Intangibles (B-): I think Edge should hang on again as the starter but look out for Tim Hightower who is having an impressive camp by all reports and might factor into the running game some.
Overall (C ): I like Edge for the price you can get him for right now. Schedule outside of the playoffs is fairly soft so he should have a good year, maybe 1,200+ on the ground.
Kevin Smith (6.09)
Opp (C+): Other than the fact we simply don’t know yet, what is preventing Smith from being the 15-20 carry guy? The OC and HC have come out and said they will be more conservative on offense, which to me signals a shift in the commitment to the running game. I like Tatum Bell enough but I can’t see him as more than a COP back for the moment.
OL (C-): It’s not quite as bad as we have been lead to believe. They did avg 4.0 ypc last season. Jeff Backus, the LT has been a starter for 7 seasons, plays thru a lot of pain but he is pretty average as a Tackle in this league. Mulitalo is one of the starting Guards, at 34 he is aging but he is a pretty good run blocker. Gosder Cherilus, the rookie is not a great pass protector but he can run block as well. This line is going to sneak up on some people and I expect some big games on the ground for the Lions(can’t believe I types that).
Sch (D+): This is going to hurt them. @Atl, GB, @SF, and a bye to start…not too rough and Smith is going to need to get his learning curve out of the way because after the early bye it gets rough. CHI, @MN, @Hou, WAS, @Chi, JAX, @Car, TB, and the playoffs feature TN, MN, @Indy, and finally NO.
Surround (B): Kitna is a journeyman but Roy and Calvin provide some serious upside and excitement at the WR positions.
Intangibles (A): I’m gonna get my money’s worth out of this grade. I work with a fellow who played not only on the HS Football team with 24K, but also grew up with him, played Pop Warner with Kevin, ia m very fortunate to have sat down and talked to him about Smith. Now this guy does not play FF, had no idea why I was asking so many questions, but he conveyed to me that Kevin Smith, who grew up in Miami, always and he emphasized that word, always had a different approach to the game. Where other guys were playing for the fun of it, Kevin was totally focused at a young age and everyone around him knew he was special and would likely play in the NFL one day. I tell you this not to impress you with some inside stuff, but to impress upon you that this is a guy you might really want as an RB3, or an RB2 if you load up on WR and other slots earlier in the draft. I get the feeling Kevin simply works harder than everyone else. Other guys in the NFL, and I don’t need to name drop into this post to explain to you that guys that work harder in the NFL, typically do better. Manning watching game films, TO in the weight room, LT in the film room and practice, most of the guys that excel in this league, work hard.
Overall (C ): I didn’t push the grades on Smith just because I got some interesting background on the guy, but I would keep this guy on your radar come draft day. I want to grade the OL and Schedule higher, that would probably jump Smith up at least 1 tier so I think he is value where he is at in the draft right now.
Michael Turner (4.04)
Opp (B): They paid him a lot of money and it sure isn’t to watch him walking around on the sidelines. I expect him in there on 1st and 2nd down, if the Falcons need more than about 3 yards on 3rd down, I would expect Norwood to be inserted at that point. They won’t be pulling Turner near the goal line, but they also won’t see the goal line much either.
OL (D): They weren’t too good last year, and now they have a bunch of new guys. Sam Baker will have an uphill climb playing LT in the NFL. He was good but not great in college, and I think overall the Falcons will have a bottom 5 at the LT position for the 2008 season. A lot of the jobs are still being ironed out in camp, especially along the right side…this just doesn’t sound good to me. A good OL knows who their starters are and they play together year in and year out. I don’t see any cohesion here at all.
Sch (B): It’s soft for sure. DET, @TB, KC, @Car, and after the bye week @Oak, NO, DEN, CAR, @SD, @NO, TB, @MN to close out the year. Not a bad schedule all said but the OL is going to be challenged to take advantage off any of it. Even a soft rush defense can get the upper hand against a terrible OL.
Surround (D+): QB is a mystery, White is solid, Laurent still has some developing to do at the WR2 spot, no TE as Crumpler left. I saw the 1st pre season game and Ryan looked pretty good, but he’s a rookie, and even if he starts over Redman, I don’t see how he can do very well as a rookie.
Intangibles (C ): Bad things happen to good players on really lousy teams. I think the Falcons will be picking top5 next year, and I am a bit skeptical that he can carry the ball 300+ times without any injuries.
Overall (C ): Turner is a guy I am not targeting in most drafts. There are other guys I like better that being picked around the same time as MT.
Ronnie Brown (3.10)
Opp (B): Ricky Williams is becoming a bigger threat to Brown day after day. I also am not sure I see Miami giving Brown a new contract. Very possible we see a different starter as early as next season for Miami. Brown will still get plenty of touches and he showed last season that he very capable out of the backfield so I think he should be in there on 3rd down situations.
OL (D): Let’s not fool ourselves. Jake Long will take some time getting to adjusted to the NFL, however he handed Gaines Adams his lunch the other night, had no trouble with him at all. Smiley was brought over from SF, but he wasn’t that special with the Niners. Satele is solid and if he continues to grow he could be a potential Pro Bowler down the road. Donald Thomas and Shawn Murphy are battling each other in camp and so far Thomas, the 6th round pick out of UConn, is winning that battle. Vernon Carey now slides back to RT, his natural position coming out of college…fact is Carey has been pretty bleh so far in the NFL and I am not expecting big things from him.
Sch (B): NYJ, @AZ, @NE and a bye week to start. In week 8 he starts a string of very nice games that include BUF, @Den, SEA, OAK, NE, @St L, @Buf, SF, and @KC to lose the season…NE and maybe Seattle are playoff caliber teams in that list.
Surround (D+): Even with Chad Pennington, this group has a long way to go. Fasano might be the answer at TE, he looked sharp the other night in preseason. Teddy Ginn is not a #1 WR, he may not even be a #2. Wilford has been downgraded to WR3, and he could slide further. Derek Hagan does not impress me and he is perhaps the WR2 at this point. And Pennington was OK in New York, I’m happy to have him over what we did have in place, but let’s not pretend he is a top10 QB because he’s not.
Intangibles (B): When all is said and done, Brown should see plenty of carries and even in a 2 back system, Brown should get 55-60% of the carries, and I think he will be in and around the goal line situations as well…in the rare event they happen.
Overall (C ): Brown is a guy I am looking the other way on right now. Too much risk for me and we have seen some great RB over the years not be able to come back the year after they tear an ACL…typically the next season is when they return 100%.
Jonathon Stewart (5.05)
Opp (D): Fact is this guy isn’t even healthy right now. His toe is still recovering form surgery he had in March if the reports I read were correct. I can’t see him being a 3 down back either with DWill on the sideline. I expect DeAngelo to get his fair share of carries too. This is not the Stewart Show.
OL (C+): They did manage a 4.0 ypc as a unit. They went out and drafted Otah to help improve the line and create a power running style for the Panthers. Stewart will be a big part of that ground game.
Sch (C+): @SD, CHI, @MN the first 3 games of the season. Maybe he should let DWill go out there the first 3 weeks and have at it because these 3 games without Smith for most of it too…not going to be a great way to start the season…and we all know how tough it is to try and pull trades when the guy you want to move is doing lousy. It get better as next up they face ATL, KC, @TB, NO, AZ, so they get 4 out of 5 at home before their bye week. @Oak, DET, @Atl, @GB, TB, DEN, @NYG to close the season. Things definitely pick up after week 3…if you don’t draft this guy, he might be a guy to go and get after week 2 or week 3. It’s odd to think about things like that, but at the same time if you can peer into the crystal ball and be right once in awhile…
Surround (B): Delhomme, Smith, Mush, and DJ Hackett make a nice air attack to take pressure off the running game. If Carolina had a slightly higher profile TE, this offense would be scary.
Intangibles (B-): He was drafted pretty high but Fox has always shown loyalty to players that have been in his system for awhile…maybe DWill starts the season but in the end Stewart is going to be leaned on. Fox wants to run the ball, shorten the game, play tough defense…simple recipe and not hard to follow.
Overall (C ): Probably worth his draft spot but I don’t like the toe injury this close to the season starting.
Willie “no longer fast” Parker (4.05)
Opp (D): Think he might not get 300+ carries this season? I just see a split right down the middle for the Steeler backfield and I also don’t see Parker getting goal line touches exclusively either.
OL (B-): I’ll sum it up like this. I think the OL is going to be OK at run blocking, the challenge will be pass protection for them but that should not impact their run blocking skills.
Sch (C ): The regular season is OK, but starting in week 13, the money weeks, here is how the schedule shakes out…@NE, DAL, @Bal, @TN…not exactly easy by any stretch.
Surround (A): Big Ben, Ward, Miller, Holmes, Sweed, and others make up a superior skill position set around for Parker/Mendenhall.
Intangibles (D): Writing is on the wall, and I think Parker will lose a significant amount of carries to the rookie.
Overall (C ): Fairly short write up for Parker but I just don’t have much to say about him. I think it’s obvious his time as an RB1 getting 70% of the workload…just isn’t going to happen. Factor in an OL that lost Alan Faneca, and a tough schedule down the stretch, put that all together and I don’t like the end result too much. No way I am grabbing Parker in the late 3rd-middle 4th round.
"D+" tier
LenDale White (5.06)
Opp (C-): The presence of a 2nd RB will be felt. I believe he is in a split situation at best, and I doubt he will be getting many catches out of the backfield. Good thing is he shared a backfield with Reggie Bush in college so he can function even when he isn’t the primary back. I think some weeks White will be featured more than others.
OL (B-): They ran very well behind the LT Michael Roos last season…no wonder they paid that guy a big sum of money. Jake Scott will be the RG, and Amano/Harris will fight it out for the LG spot. Both starting Guards left or retired in the off season, but that’s OK because they needed to improve there anyways.
Sch (C ): JAX, MN, @Bal all before the week 6 bye. IND, GB, @Chi, @Jax in the 2nd half, playoffs are pretty alright with @Det, CLE, @Hou, and PIT to close things out…perhaps this schedule could be slightly higher.
Surround (D): Crumpler but not much else in the WR/TE stable to speak of. Young is not a great passing QB yet either.
Intangibles (C-): Chris Johnson is gaining on his touches day by day in camp. The OC came out and basically is trying to see how many carries a game he can give to Johnson, in other words he sounds like he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as much as possible…that doesn’t bode well for White.
Overall (D+): I don’t think he will be the guy that owners want as the season progresses.
Rudi Johnson (5.07)
Opp (C ): He won’t get many catches, and I think Kenny Watson will get his fair share of carries.
OL (D): It really has felt the loss of Steinbach IMO. Everyone thinks this OL is great because they only allowed 17 sacks…but they only were able to avg 3.7 ypc on the ground, that’s not good at all. Most of the line is good at pass blocking but well below average at run blocking. Plan accordingly folks.
Sch (D): This is a tough schedule. @Balt, TN, @NYG to open the season with @Dal and PITT also before the bye. Then it ends up JAX, @Hou, PHI, @Pit, BAL, @Indy, WAS, @Cle…those are all teams that will likely are playoff bound or factor into the mix, not a lot of easy match ups in there.
Surround (A): Palmer, Johnson, and Housh make for defenses to fall back and that is the only thing saving the Bengals running game.
Intangibles (B): He should bounce back some if he is 100% healthy, but I heard a report that he is having hammy problems already. That isn’t what I want to hear right now.
Overall (D+): I see little upside right now. He seems like he is breaking down.
Julius Jones (5.08)
Opp (D): He is splitting time with MoMo it seems, and Morris is having a great camp by all reports.
OL (C-): Wahle was brought in and will be an upgrade at the LG spo but this OL only put up 3.8 ypc last season. And they need to get a little younger at the Tackle spots and they failed to address that in the off season.
Sch (B-): It’s pretty soft most of the regular schedule but in weeks 13 and 14 he faces @Dal, and NE, neither will be easy although he might want to try some revenge on the Cowboys. I think the OL is going to be challenged pretty hard so even easy match ups might not mean much.
Surround (C ): Hass is fine, but Branch is injured, Nate is unreliable, and Engram is slow. They all might be acceptable FF starters but in terms of NFL talent, the skill positions here need help. Add in a rookie TE and I am just not very high on them.
Intangibles (C ): I was higher on him earlier in the summer but I am not hearing great news form the camp reports, as well as folks that are going and watching the Seahawks. Morris is outplaying him right now and that is not promising.
Overall (D+): Decent RB3, I liked him better when he 1st signed, not excited about what is happening right now.
Ahman Green (10.05)
Opp (D): I don’t see a big threat on the roster for him but I also don’t believe he will be asked to carry it more than about 13-18 times a game…somewhere in that band on a week to week basis.
OL (C ): Eric Winston is one of the top5 RT in the league IMO. Guy was going to be a top prospect until he tore his ACL during his Junior year at UM. Guess what? When he came back as a Senior he wasn’t 100%(shocking), and his draft stock fell, plain and simple. Now he is 100% and it shows. If Houston could get the right RB in place, there should be a lot of success to the right side of that OL.
Sch (D): It’s tough…@Pit, BAL, @TN, @Jax, INDY to open the season…who did the Texans piss off? JAX, @GB, TN, @Oak for the playoff run, not very good either.
Surround (B): Schaub, AJ, and Daniels have the making of a trio in Dallas. I like the skill position players that the Texans have either drafted or signed in recent years.
Intangibles (C ): Cannot be good that Green has suffered major injuries the past 2 out of 3 seasons, then you factor in his age…you might get some work out of him as an RB3 but I don’t see a big upside to him this year.
Overall (D+): Not going to be reaching for him for sure. He is a guy that teams who load up on WR early will want to watch as you will be drafting several middle of the orad guys and trying to get lucky in the middle to back half of your drafts.
Matt Forte (6.07)
Opp (C ): I do think Adrian Peterson factors into the receptions for the backs. Forte will likely get 12-15+ carries a game, maybe more.
OL (F): Anytime John St Clair is being mentioned as a potential starter at LT on your team things are not good. 3.1 ypc last season. Chris Williams has a pretty bad back injury that is keeping him out right now. This line is in bad bad shape IMO.
Sch (C-): Not a lot of cupcakes on this schedule. There certainly are worse but even the middle of the road teams are going to have the upper hand with this OL.
Surround (F): No QB, no WR to speak of, TE is sort of strength but it can’t save the rest of this mess.
Intangibles (C ): I don’t know Forte the way others do. I do know that I don’t like the Bears and I fully expect them to be picking near the top in 2009. I am not seeing the upside to him at the moment.
Overall (D/F): no more than an RB3 for me and he is gone too early and too many other RB I like to have to settle on Forte.
There are other RB obviously we need to discuss because they are either in the mix in a 2 back system, or we see potential if they get on the field. Let’s start with the rookies that have not been mentioned.
Rashard Mendenhall: I think he is a real threat for playing time and I doubt the Steelers drafted him in the 1st round only to wacth him stand on thesidelines as Parker gets another 300+ carry season. The real question is how much playing time RM will see and will he be the goal line back? I think he will be used to crash the end zone when Pitt gets down there around the goal line. Mendenhall has been going in the middle 6th and I think he makes a decent RB3.
Felix Jones: Barber is going to get more carries than Felix, please don’t have any delusions this year. But you have to like the impressive amount of talent that will surround Felix Jones…this is going to make him feel comfortable. I think he will have a few big games this year, I love him in a best ball league, and he probably will make a nice RB3/4 for most owners.
Chris “Flash” Johnson: We’re looking for nicknames for this kid and I think Flash is probably well suited. If anyone knows what they called him in college, please share. Johnson is having an outstanding camp and I expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan most Sundays. He only needs a seam to make a large play happen as evidence in his first game of the pre season the other night. I like this kid a lot, I think he’s special, he isn’t likely ever a top5 RB type but he has some special parts to his game that some folks have not seen…at least in awhile. You’re going to have weeks where he has 8/77/TD plus whatever he racks out of the backfield. He also is likely to show up in the box score with a couple 13/29 efforts that have owners screaming…but overall I think Johnson will show enough to earn a name like The Flash!
Ray Rice: Having a great camp so far by all reports. He will not push McGahee to the curb but I also believe he will see touches and he will make the most out of them. Not a guy you draft to count on but if he were to get on the field due to an injury in front of him, I think he could hold his own just fine.
Steve Slaton: If you get Green late, it might not be a bad idea to grab Slaton late as well. I see Slaton getting involved in the passing game early, but he is not an every down back in the NFL right now.
Ryan Torrain: rookie for Denver, I would leave him alone as he broke his elbow and is out up to 3 months…should not factor into the Denver running game at all this season.
There are some other rookies I am going to mention that could see some action but you might not want to draft necessarily. I expect in my weekly write ups to mention some of these guys at certain points of the season.
Jamaal Charles: He isn’t likely to get a ton of touches but if LJ were to go down again at some point this season, I would be interested in what Charles can do. He doesn’t have much talent on the OL or QB spots, but he did show some promise in college.
Tim Hightower: Another rookie that is having a nice camp, looks like he could be the clear #2…you take Edge in the late 3rd/early 4th and likely you can find Hightower available extremely late, so it’s a nice insurance policy for your RB2.
Mike Hart: Looks good so far, and if Addai were to go down, I think you would definitely see Hart out there mixing it up. Obviously they brought back Rhodes but Hart seems to have more upside, but maybe that is more Dynasty talk.
Chauncy Washington: Rookie from USC and in Jags camp. If Fred taylor were go to down, I don’t think MJD would be asked to shoulder the whole load. This is a guy you don’t really need to draft but I would keep an eye on him.
Justin Forsett: I love this kid out of Cal, he coems in and has a lot of guys ahead of him on the roster but really JJ, MM, and TJD don’t really scare me much at the moment. He will likely go undrafted but it won’t surprise me if he found his way onto the field at some point.
Next I want to highlight some guys that are not rookies but are not exactly cemented in their role on the team. Some of these guys have shown flashes but are not starters and may never be. But a few of them have some great potential.
DeAngelo Williams: Stewart is not healthy, and I look for DWill to be involved in the offense a lot early in the season. If he can be even average with that schedule the first 3 games of the season, that will go a long way to determine his role the rest of the season. I like him and I am willing to gamble on him as an RB3 in redrafts.
Ahmad Bradshaw: I am very eager to see what this kid is going to do in year 2. He had a great playoff run and I expect him to be involved in the passing game a lot. He had 50+ receptions his Senior year coming out of college IIRC, and that’s a ton for a college RB. He has some serious skills, and I wouldn’t let the 30 days he spent in the slammer because of something he did as a juvenile deter you from grabbing him in the draft. This is another guy I like as an RB3 if you wait awhile to fill that slot.
Leon Washington: In best ball leagues I like him a lot. You can’t really start him with confidence, but if he were the starter and had a chance to be out there with Favre on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down…I could see a Ryan Grant like year if he were to end up starting due to injury or poor play.
Lorenzo Booker: I see him getting touches, I really do. Westbrook is going to get his same load but I think Booker will be used every 3rd series possibly. They want to keep Westbrook fresh and Booker was a great pickup for the Eagles in the off season. In fact Philly had a pretty good off season with the draft and signings they made.
Jerious Norwood: I love where you can get this guy in most redrafts this year. I feel like he will see some real action and while most of the itme he is the COP back, he also will be out there on 3rd downs IMO. If he were to grab the starting spot due to injury, you might have something here. He has the speed that we are all going gaga for in other backs this year.
Maurice Morris: Definitely going to see time this year. Probably best suited for best ball leagues where you don’t have to worry about picking the right weeks to start him.
I have to put Fred Taylor in his own little place here. He gets no love in redrafts but he is another RB I keep on a short list if you went WR/WR early on and are looking to find some much needed help at RB. Fact is, Taylor hasn’t had double digit TDs in a good long while and he just doesn’t hit the top20 that much on a week to week basis. His time in the NFL is running out and I would prefer not to rely on this guy on my team.
Next I have a few vets that I think will see some action and produce when put in those situations.
Lamont Jordan: Many of us grabbed him in the very last round of more than a few spring/summer survivor format drafts. I think after Maroney that Jordan will see the most action including the dreaded vulture TDs down near the goal line. A new start, new team, chance to play for a Super Bowl…Jordan will be motivated.
Ricky Williams: Having an outstanding camp by all reports. He was the lone bright spot in the preseason the other night. And he has a guy in front of him that is coming off an ACL injury. Odds are Ricky will get action every week as long as he is healthy. Could creep up to RB3 status, maybe even higher should something happen to Ronnie Brown.
Chester Taylor: If anything happens to ADP, Taylor becomes the hottest RB in the league. Seriously, there is too much talent on the OL for Taylor to be anything other than good if he is the starter. Whther you have ADP or not, Taylor is an interesting pick in the 6th-7th round right now.
Warrick Dunn: I have a bet with David Yudkin, that Dunn scores over 100 points this year in non PPR leagues…I have the over. Dunn looks outstanding and I don’t think there is any reason to think Dunn will not have at least 800-1,000 yds rush/rec. His worst year he had 956 yds combined. He has never finished lower than 30th ever in non PPR leagues…most of the time he was between 12-24 and has been an ideal RB2 for a long long time. I am sure I will find room for Dunn as my RB3/4 in some leagues this year.
DeShaun Foster: If you select Frank Gore, plan on grabbing Foster in the 2nd half of your draft. I don’t think he has huge upside but if he is asked to play, he has enough skills to do some damage in a Mike Martz offense.
And finally I have a few backs that I don’t have a real place for but that you might think of grabbing late to fill out your rosters.
Pierre Thomas: I don’t like where you have to take Deuce who is coming off his 2nd major knee injury. Thomas got to play late in the season last year and shined. I believe he was playing ahead of Mendenhall at Illinois before he entered the NFL so the kid can play. I like Thomas later over Deuce for the price.
Tatum Bell: Figures to see action as they won’t run down Smith into the ground. Bell didn’t do very much of anything last year and he should be viewed more as an RB4/5 selection.
Andre Hall: In case you don’t know, this is Selvin’s back up for Denver. I love the fact you can get him very late right now in most redrafts. Great insurance for Selvin as well. I don’t see Michael Pittman in the action all that much. And Pittman’s upside is slim too.
Justin Fargas/Michael Bush: Fargas wll likely see action early but as the season progresses I would expect McFadden to get more and more touches. Bush has looked good in camp but where does he fit in on this roster right now? Goal line I suppose but he can’t steal away touches between the 20s from DMac and Fargas.
Fred Jackson: Has looked good in preseason and limited touches during the season as well. Fred is a nice find late in the draft. If you grab Lynch in the 1st, I would lock up Fred Jackson when you reach the 2nd half of your draft.
Kenny Watson: Did very well when asked to play last year. If you are making plans with Rudi then you might as well grab Watson late. I can’t see how he doesn’t play during the year.
Chris Brown: I had heard he wasn’t 100% health wise which has me very leery. I would probably pass on him at almost all points of the draft. I can’t see him being dominate in this offense.
Kevin Jones: Too much risk for me at almost any point in the draft. They asked him to lose weight, and the Bears is not a very explosive offense in any facet of the game.
Adrian Peterson: In PPR leagues this is a poor man’s Kevin Faulk…actually maybe a rich man’s because he did have 50+ receptions last year, racked up somewhere over 900 yds but he is never mentioned anywhere. I can think of a couple scenarios where he might see action.
Brandon Jackson: They talk about this guy but I can’t believe that Ryan Grant is going to lose touches to Jackson anytime soon.
And that about does it for me. I left out a few back ups here and there but overall I tried to think about scenarios where backs could succeed if they are pressed into action. I hope you all enjoyed this dissertati
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Yeah, sorry. Not making light of the work at all. But it's easier to see the "wow, that's different" parts of the rankings when laid out simple.On to some comments:MB3: I think his "opportunity" will be quite a bit less than most make it out to be. Some teams have a distinct personality in their pass/run splits. Dallas isn't one of those, imo. I wouldn't be suprised to see a very pass heavy attack this year, or even for periods of time. Bottom line, I think his touches will remain the same and might not be quite as effective as previously.Selvin Young: aka Tatum Bell. Not in that they are the same guy, just that every time I see a Denver RB that looks too good to be true...it is. It's fool's gold chasing the Denver RB points. Doing exactly this - chasing - ran my teams into the ground for 2-3 seasons in arow (note: I'm stubborn). Gave up on it last year and went to SB's across the board. Coincidence? Could be. I'll be staying away again this year. Note that I noted how stubborn I am. Tried for years to do work, work, work....read, read, read and pick my "Denver RB" each season. Or even go ahead and draft 3 or 4 guys and "lock it up". Nope, everytime someone thinks they have a good handle on the situation..... more to come (sorry, gotta run)
the rest is OK, but rating Selvin Young THAT high is wishful thinking..is he even the starter in Denver at the moment? MJD is relatively high, but you fail to even give Fred Taylor any props, he isn't even on the list!c'mon now, Fred is awesome as a 3rd RB..you have too much faith in oft-injured Brandon Jacobs, he'll be lucky to top last year's stats..
