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2009 Leading Rusher? (1 Viewer)

mmarinelli23

Footballguy
Which RB do you think will lead the NFL in rushing in 2009? Adrian Peterson led the league last season in rushing with 1,760 yards, will he do it again?

Despite most people probably saying AP, I'm going with L.T. I feel he'll return back to form and once again be the leagues rushing leader like he was in both 2006, and 2007. Watch out!

 
To be honest I am with you. I can tell you right now that our opinion is the unpopular one. It seems all those that worshiped LT at one point, now have jumped on the bandwagon that he is old and doesnt merit even a first round selection. I am selecting LT 3rd pick overall in a PPR 12 person league.

 
Funny, I am getting some jabs at suggesting LT is still a Top 10 back in another LT thread, let alone the league leader is rushing.

 
I'm thinking Steven Jackson. He'll get an absurd amount of carries and will face some weak run defenses. If not him, than yeah, gotta go with AP (or is it still AD?)

 
The first few responses in this thread are demonstrating why the best spot to be picking in most redraft leagues is in the middle of the first round. If I had to lay odds, I think ADP has the best chance to repeat, based upon both his youth and the stability and growth of the team. But it could be any one of probably 5-8 guys.

For example, if Jason Campbell takes a leap forward in passing this year with the emergence of Devin Thomas as a WR2, suddenly I think Portis starts getting big plays and is in the mix for being the top rusher.

Someone else mentioned Steven Jackson, who is in the same boat (needing a break or two, but otherwise being amply talented). Ditto Ronnie Brown. Or Frank Gore.

 
Sometimes the obvious answer is boring but I don't see how AP isn't the most probable candidate. He's arguably the most talented back right now, runs behind a great line, has a coach that likes to run the ball and has already won the rushing title once. I don't see what's not to like. I'm a big Chris Johnson and LT fan but Johnson likely won't get enough carries and LT's line and potential slowdown can't be overlooked.

 
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
 
I'm going uptown Ronnie Brown! Maybe I am influenced by recent articles on this site and elsewhere but it is a fact that almost half of the top 10 rushers from the prior year are replaced by guys outside the preseason top 10 consensus picks. I like Brown in a contract year with something to prove and completely healthy from his knee injury. Williams will truly be just a guy to spell RB instead of split (about 80/70-30/20%) and if you look back at this former top3 1st Round talent, when he was last fully healthy, he was leading the league (albeit under Cam Cameron) in rushing through about 7 games until he blew up his knee. People are either way up or way down on this guy this year and I think to me, the stars are aligned for him in a big way to have a very major season. Let the mocking begin but remember, who had D'Angelo Williams as the #1 RB on July 23, 2008? The herd mentality is usually wrong but I will agree that if a favorite consensus pick had to be made, it is hard to argue against AD.

My .02 on LT... love the guy and his talent but the dropoff in age and wear and tear alone are enough to eliminate him from being the Top RB (still will be top 10 though). He still can light it up and will have some big games in 2009 but the days of busting off 60 yd runs for TDs where no one can catch him are over and that alone is going to cap him from reaching the top of the RB mountain. When you look at D'Angelo, that is exactly why he was the #1 RB last year and any top RB needs a little luck, health and to break off some big runs for TDs to make it to the pinnacle.

 
RBs who aren't in line to receive >300 carries, need not apply, so the Ronnie Brown and Felix Jones's of the NFL haven't a chance IMO.

Clearly, ADP has to be the favorite and if I had to put $$$ on it that's where I'ld go.

However, I could see Turner, LJ, LT2, Portis, SJAX, Forte, or Gore getting enough of a workload to pull this off, but only if Peterson is slowed by injury.

 
Not saying he is going to get it, but surprised no one has even mentioned Michael Turner.?? He will still get plenty of chances and defenses will not be able to put to many in the box. Heard their schedule is pretty tough, but for a guy who was #2 last year (I think?) you would think he would get mentioned.

 
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
When Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are RB2 and RB3 you do not have a RBBC, Kubiak is on the hotseat and I gaurantee you he will ride Slaton till the wheels fall off.
 
MJD

A lot of the other ones previously mentioned will have trouble staying healthy enough to make it through an entire season (which is a must to earn the rushing title.)

 
Felix Jones, even with only 200 carries.
The rush leader over the last 5 years has averaged 1725/season...so Felix would need to avg 8.6 ypc. The highest ypc of any rush leader over that time period is LT in '06 at 5.21 ypc (his record shattering year). I know Felix is probably better than LT, Peterson, etc. but I'm not sure he's that much better.... :lmao:
 
This is leading RUSHER, not FF#1 or YFS:

Peterson - Most likely

Turner - Good chance

Drew - I don't think he'll get enough carries. YFS is a different story.

Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.

Williams - Won't see enough carries

Jackson - Needs to stay healthy

Gore - Good chance

Tomlinson - Good chance

 
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simmonjm said:
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
When Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are RB2 and RB3 you do not have a RBBC, Kubiak is on the hotseat and I gaurantee you he will ride Slaton till the wheels fall off.
:lol: Kubiak already declared Brown's role for this season, it's already RBBC.

 
simmonjm said:
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
When Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are RB2 and RB3 you do not have a RBBC, Kubiak is on the hotseat and I gaurantee you he will ride Slaton till the wheels fall off.
:thumbup: Kubiak already declared Brown's role for this season, it's already RBBC.
BINGO. The answer to the thread's question is this: What head coach or OC will allow a single top halfback on his roster the opportunity to be a leading rusher by the amount of times he's fed the rock.....

 
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
Except he has Kevin Jones, Cutler throwing more than Orton and a bad offensive line.I'll say LT rebounds.
 
Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.
YPC is meaningless in this debate because it isn't a guaranteed indicator. Jamal Lewis averaged 4.3 YPC the year before he ran for over 2000 yards....his YPC that season was 5.3, and he has never sniffed the 5 YPC mark again.

Forte has Cutler and a year of NFL experience behind him. He is a lock for carries well into the high 300's and has a QB and blazing WR to keep a defense from loading up on the run.....not to mention a climate condusive to pounding the rock. Like I said before, his situation is perfect.

 
simmonjm said:
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
When Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are RB2 and RB3 you do not have a RBBC, Kubiak is on the hotseat and I gaurantee you he will ride Slaton till the wheels fall off.
:lmao: Kubiak already declared Brown's role for this season, it's already RBBC.
Yeah he said Brown will be a good goalline back too. That's some fine sarcasm. :thumbdown: You didn't believe that did you?

 
I have a feeling there are going to be some leagues won picking in the 6-10 range by going with Gore and then stud WR to set the foundation of the team.

I think Gore has a real chance to be a monster this year...I'm just not sure I could take him in the top 5 in the draft.

 
Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.
YPC is meaningless in this debate because it isn't a guaranteed indicator. Jamal Lewis averaged 4.3 YPC the year before he ran for over 2000 yards....his YPC that season was 5.3, and he has never sniffed the 5 YPC mark again.

Forte has Cutler and a year of NFL experience behind him. He is a lock for carries well into the high 300's and has a QB and blazing WR to keep a defense from loading up on the run.....not to mention a climate condusive to pounding the rock. Like I said before, his situation is perfect.
:blackdot: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: just saw that my quote was your sig. I'm honored....
 
Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.
YPC is meaningless in this debate because it isn't a guaranteed indicator. Jamal Lewis averaged 4.3 YPC the year before he ran for over 2000 yards....his YPC that season was 5.3, and he has never sniffed the 5 YPC mark again.

Forte has Cutler and a year of NFL experience behind him. He is a lock for carries well into the high 300's and has a QB and blazing WR to keep a defense from loading up on the run.....not to mention a climate condusive to pounding the rock. Like I said before, his situation is perfect.
To use Jamal Lewis as the example, and then to go on and explain what a fluke his YPC was that year, doesn't exactly strengthen your point.I'm down on Forte this year. I respect the fact that you are not. I can appreciate people's notions that he will perform well this year, but to think that he will be the rushing leader is overly-optimistic.

Regarding his "perfect situation," as you put it:

A. I will concede that YPC isn't the ultimate indicator in terms of projecting future yards, but it is an indicator of the quality of offensive line. Which, BTW, isn't very good.

2. To see his carries increase is reasonable. To see them increase by 20% is no "lock."

D. Hester had "blazing speed" last year, too. He's just not a very good WR. I'm sure Cutler will help, but not transform.

9. Climate has nothing to do with how many carries a player gets. Exactly half of the leading rushers (eta) over the last 20 years (in attempts) came from southern or dome teams.

Can Forte increase his attempts, YPC, and overall rushing yards? Sure. Will he have the perfect storm with a 20% increase in carries, 25% increase in YPC, and 40% increase in total rushing yards?

:frayedknot:

We'll agree to disagree, but the odds seem against it to me.

 
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I'm going uptown Ronnie Brown! Maybe I am influenced by recent articles on this site and elsewhere but it is a fact that almost half of the top 10 rushers from the prior year are replaced by guys outside the preseason top 10 consensus picks. I like Brown in a contract year with something to prove and completely healthy from his knee injury. Williams will truly be just a guy to spell RB instead of split (about 80/70-30/20%) and if you look back at this former top3 1st Round talent, when he was last fully healthy, he was leading the league (albeit under Cam Cameron) in rushing through about 7 games until he blew up his knee. People are either way up or way down on this guy this year and I think to me, the stars are aligned for him in a big way to have a very major season. Let the mocking begin but remember, who had D'Angelo Williams as the #1 RB on July 23, 2008? The herd mentality is usually wrong but I will agree that if a favorite consensus pick had to be made, it is hard to argue against AD. My .02 on LT... love the guy and his talent but the dropoff in age and wear and tear alone are enough to eliminate him from being the Top RB (still will be top 10 though). He still can light it up and will have some big games in 2009 but the days of busting off 60 yd runs for TDs where no one can catch him are over and that alone is going to cap him from reaching the top of the RB mountain. When you look at D'Angelo, that is exactly why he was the #1 RB last year and any top RB needs a little luck, health and to break off some big runs for TDs to make it to the pinnacle.
:tinfoilhat: <_< :blackdot: :blackdot:
 
Willie Parker-

If we're going to play guessing games I'll go with a guess that makes me look like a genius if it comes true. Easy schedule- if health a lock for 320+ carries. Fast Willie Parker- will only end up with 3 Tds though so don't draft him.

 
simmonjm said:
I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.Forte is the answer to this question. His situation is perfect.
When Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are RB2 and RB3 you do not have a RBBC, Kubiak is on the hotseat and I gaurantee you he will ride Slaton till the wheels fall off.
:no: Kubiak already declared Brown's role for this season, it's already RBBC.
Good one :confused: Slaton may get pulled in short yardage, hurting his FF value, but he will get plenty of carries and yards. Maybe not enough to win the rushing title, but enough to have a shot at it.

 
A. I will concede that YPC isn't the ultimate indicator in terms of projecting future yards, but it is an indicator of the quality of offensive line. Which, BTW, isn't very good.

We'll agree to disagree, but the odds seem against it to me.
I have a more optimistic view of the OL, I guess:Sun Times Article

Projected depth chart

LT: Pace, Shaffer

LG: Omiyale, Beekman

C: Kreutz, Beekman or Buenning

RG: Garza, Beekman

RT: Williams, Shaffer

The skinny: The Bears are reshaping their offensive line for the second consecutive year after using the same five (Tait-Brown-Kreutz-Garza-Miller) for the three previous seasons. They're set to open with their third left tackle, Pace, and third right tackle, Williams, in as many seasons. Nothing is official but Omiyale, the newcomer in free agency, is expected to supplant Beekman at left guard giving the front a new look at 60 percent of the positions. Line coach Harry Hiestand has done a credible job with what he's been given, which for most of his tenure has been a veteran group with a handful of castoffs from other cities. Hiestand didn't break stride last season when Williams was lost on the second day of training camp, forcing him to play John St. Clair at left tackle when the plan was for the veteran to be at left guard. Now, general manager Jerry Angelo is hopeful that his medical risk will pan out in a big way.

Ultimately, right tackle is not where the club projects Williams, the first-round draft pick from 2008, to be. But the hope is the team can squeeze a couple of Ruben Brown-type years out of Pace. He missed 25 games over the last three seasons in St. Louis, but Pace started 14 games last season. One NFC scout said he still looks solid as a pass blocker and the issue for the former No. 1 overall pick is run blocking. Pace was in good condition during the offseason program and it could be that a change of scenery and escaping a struggling franchise will reinvigorate him. The Bears have covered themselves in the event that injuries happen as they have Shaffer in a swing tackle role, not to mention Omiyale, who can play outside. That type of flexibility on the line will be an asset and there is little doubt right now the team will go with eight linemen to open the season. That was the plan last year until Williams had back surgery in August. In choosing to keep him on the 53-man roster, the Bears forced themselves to keep a ninth lineman. Omiyale should provide a little more bulk inside in replacing Beekman, and that was one of the stated goals early in the offseason. Kreutz remains the anchor of the group and with the Bears certain to face fewer eight-man fronts with Jay Cutler at quarterback, it will be interesting to see if the perception of him changes. Some have suggested the six-time Pro Bowl performer has been in decline but with Cutler and Matt Forte able to better keep opponents honest, the Bears' run blocking might look different.

Garza will enter his fourth season as the starter at right guard. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner suggested Buenning could be in competition for a job, but also said the team was happy with Garza. Buenning's chance never seemed to materialize during the offseason program, a sign of Garza's standing.

The upside: For starters, Williams has to prove he can withstand the rigors of an entire season with a repaired back. He's not just part of the solution for this season, he's part of the solution longterm. A strong first season as a starter will go a long way toward establishing him as a pillar on offense for years to come. Obviously, Pace needs to hold up on the left side and the Bears need Omiyale to blossom like they expect after pouncing on him at the outset of free agency. Winning teams often stack the Pro Bowl roster along the line. If the Bears win, it won't be surprising to see a name on the NFC team.

The downside: Williams' back becomes an issue once again and the criticism Angelo received last season for the situation looks like a small brush fire compared to what erupts. After holding on to some older players--Brown and Miller-- a year too long in recent seasons, the Bears get stuck with another over-the-hill performer in Pace.

On the hot seat: Williams. With a year of learning under his belt and a little action last season, he should be prepared to have a successful season but the back injury is going to leave a bullseye--where else--on his back, at least for the near future. He can't be the left tackle of the future until he's been the right tackle for 2009.

Final thought: When the Bears were last good in 2006, the line was a real strength of the team. Hiestand got about everything he could out of the unit last season but the Bears struggled at times in short-yardage situations. You can't hang all of that on the line. Kyle Orton didn't command the kind of respect that Cutler will and Forte tends to be an upright runner, making him easier to stop when going for that tough one or two yards. The unit remains a work in progress. The Bears know they're not going to get more than one, two years tops out of Pace. They need to find a young tackle to hopefully pair with Williams and managed to buy themselves some time with the signing of the potential future Hall of Famer. The real plus for the group is that there should be experienced backups in place. Beekman and Buenning have plenty of starting experience, as does Shaffer, so the unit should be able to handle any injury situations. Even if this won't be the look of the Bears' front line for long, it has a chance to be good for a year.

 
big0mar said:
I drafted 12th, and ended up with S-Jax and LT...so I'm hoping its one of those two.
Both S-Jax and LT went in the Top 5 in the last draft I was in, so I'm curious what your league was thinking . . .
 
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big0mar said:
I drafted 12th, and ended up with S-Jax and LT...so I'm hoping its one of those two.
Both S-Jax and LT went in the Top 5 in the last draft I was in, so I'm curious what your league was thinking . . .
1. Adrian Peterson 2. DeAngelo Williams 3. Michael Turner 4. Tom Brady 5. Maurice Jones-Drew 6. Matt Forte 7. Larry Fitzgerald 8. Chris Johnson 9. Brian Westbrook 10. Frank Gore 11. Brandon Jacobs 12. Steven Jackson Don't ask me why, I aint complainin :thumbup:
 
Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.
YPC is meaningless in this debate because it isn't a guaranteed indicator. Jamal Lewis averaged 4.3 YPC the year before he ran for over 2000 yards....his YPC that season was 5.3, and he has never sniffed the 5 YPC mark again.Forte has Cutler and a year of NFL experience behind him. He is a lock for carries well into the high 300's and has a QB and blazing WR to keep a defense from loading up on the run.....not to mention a climate condusive to pounding the rock. Like I said before, his situation is perfect.
The problem is that players with low YPCs have a lower percentage chance of leading the league in rushing yards because they need an exceptional amount of carries, a la 370-380. That's not going to happen with Forte. They want to use Kevin Jones more, they brought in a marquee QB, so they will pass more.And we're not talking about goign from 4.3 to 5.3, Forte last year averaged 3.9 YPC. He only broke 4.0 in 6 out of 16 games... when that happens it's a RB problem. Forte simply is not that good of a runner. He doesn't have great vision, speed... any of the attributes you see in top line runners. He's serviceable, but he's no league leading rusher in any capacity... unless you predict about 20 starting RBs to get hurt this season.

Last season, Forte was off the leader by about 500 yards... you're not only asking him to average a full YPC more, but also to get about 50-60 more carries. It's incredibly unlikely he averages anywhere near 5 YPC on the season, and there's no way he sees 360 plus carries.

Thinking of him as a possible leading rusher is... illogical.

 
Felix Jones, even with only 200 carries.
The rush leader over the last 5 years has averaged 1725/season...so Felix would need to avg 8.6 ypc. The highest ypc of any rush leader over that time period is LT in '06 at 5.21 ypc (his record shattering year). I know Felix is probably better than LT, Peterson, etc. but I'm not sure he's that much better.... :shrug:
It was tongue in cheek... I think Jones could be given a starter's workload... but I agree, I just don't see it happening.My guesses would be guys who can carry the ball 350 plus times, and still average in the upper 4s...Adrian Peterson seems most likely.Clinton Portis wouldn't surprise me.Michael Turner I think sees fewer carries, but his YPC will likely increase, so he's a possibility.Kevin Smith I think has an outside shot, he easily could see an increase of over 100 carries, and was improving over the course of last season.DeAngelo Williams isn't going to see an increase in carries, and I highly doubt his YPC goes up, so he's unlikely.Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton I don't see getting a high enough workload to do it.Matt Forte simply isn't good enough, and his opps aren't going to increase much.Depending on what they do in AZ or DEN, Wells and Moreno could have a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
I don't think Peterson will repeat, although he is in a great position and needs to be on the list of viable candidates. My top 5 would be (no particular order):

Portis

Forte

Peterson

R. Brown

Jackson

I think it will be R. Brown.

 
I don't think Peterson will repeat, although he is in a great position and needs to be on the list of viable candidates. My top 5 would be (no particular order):PortisFortePeterson R. BrownJacksonI think it will be R. Brown.
R. Brown has broken 1,000 once in his 4 year career with 1008 yards. He won't get enough carries and will probably get dinged up along the way....
 
I don't think Peterson will repeat, although he is in a great position and needs to be on the list of viable candidates. My top 5 would be (no particular order):PortisFortePeterson R. BrownJacksonI think it will be R. Brown.
R. Brown has broken 1,000 once in his 4 year career with 1008 yards. He won't get enough carries and will probably get dinged up along the way....
This is assuming he doesn't get dinged up. Jackson has shown he gets dinged up a lot and so has Peterson. Portis has also shown some signs of wear. I don't see many nit picking those guys though....
 
I don't think Peterson will repeat, although he is in a great position and needs to be on the list of viable candidates. My top 5 would be (no particular order):PortisFortePeterson R. BrownJacksonI think it will be R. Brown.
R. Brown has broken 1,000 once in his 4 year career with 1008 yards. He won't get enough carries and will probably get dinged up along the way....
This is assuming he doesn't get dinged up. Jackson has shown he gets dinged up a lot and so has Peterson. Portis has also shown some signs of wear. I don't see many nit picking those guys though....
the dinged up comment is more of an additional reason why I don't think he'll do it, not the primary. The primary being that he won't get enough carries and he just can't ever seem to carry the load (most carries in 4 years is 241). I don't see why Miami would drastically alter what worked pretty well for them last year.
 
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I don't think Peterson will repeat, although he is in a great position and needs to be on the list of viable candidates. My top 5 would be (no particular order):PortisFortePeterson R. BrownJacksonI think it will be R. Brown.
R. Brown has broken 1,000 once in his 4 year career with 1008 yards. He won't get enough carries and will probably get dinged up along the way....
This is assuming he doesn't get dinged up. Jackson has shown he gets dinged up a lot and so has Peterson. Portis has also shown some signs of wear. I don't see many nit picking those guys though....
the dinged up comment is more of an additional reason why I don't think he'll do it, not the primary. The primary being that he won't get enough carries. I don't see why Miami would drastically alter what worked pretty well for them last year.
I think Art did a nice job of stating why some of us think that he will, but if you disagree then so be it. :thumbup:
 
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.
HK,I'm afraid that you are mistaken.Slaton and Green only shared carries in weeks 1, 5-8 and 10-12. Slaton took the majority of carries in each game.They were both stopped week 10 against Baltimore.They both romped weeks 11 and 12.Slaton was the only RB in weeks 3, 4, 9 and every week after 12.Slaton goes to the Top RB in 2009!
 
Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson is my vote.
:unsure: I too believe it will be Steve Slaton. He is one of the few RB's in the league that will not have to deal with splitting carries plus he is young, talented and on a top 10 offense.
No. not because he's not good, but to put up the top rushing totals you need a run based offense, a great RB and a Beast of an O-Line.The houston O-line is average. they have a decent scheme, but at the end of the day, they just are not good enough to get Slaton the 1600+ yards he needs. ditto for the guy who thinks Forte will be there.Forte is only a good fantasy back because he catches passes out of the backfield. If not for that, his 1200 yards would be average To be the leading Rusher I am guessing you need 1600 + yards to do it. Agreed, he is young and has upside, but not this much upside. (not this year anyhow)Next year or the year after? Maybe. but not this year.I'm putting my money on either: ADP, Turner, or Deangelo or Jonathan Stewart. LT has an outside chance if the line in SD returns to form, but that offense has been quietly switching to more of a balanced attack, so I think LT's 1600+ yard seasons running the ball are over. (but I wouldnt be surprised to see him catch more balls out of the backfield)
 
Forte - YPC was too low last year for me to consider it likely.
YPC is meaningless in this debate because it isn't a guaranteed indicator. Jamal Lewis averaged 4.3 YPC the year before he ran for over 2000 yards....his YPC that season was 5.3, and he has never sniffed the 5 YPC mark again.Forte has Cutler and a year of NFL experience behind him. He is a lock for carries well into the high 300's and has a QB and blazing WR to keep a defense from loading up on the run.....not to mention a climate condusive to pounding the rock. Like I said before, his situation is perfect.
The problem is that players with low YPCs have a lower percentage chance of leading the league in rushing yards because they need an exceptional amount of carries, a la 370-380. That's not going to happen with Forte. They want to use Kevin Jones more, they brought in a marquee QB, so they will pass more.And we're not talking about goign from 4.3 to 5.3, Forte last year averaged 3.9 YPC. He only broke 4.0 in 6 out of 16 games... when that happens it's a RB problem. Forte simply is not that good of a runner. He doesn't have great vision, speed... any of the attributes you see in top line runners. He's serviceable, but he's no league leading rusher in any capacity... unless you predict about 20 starting RBs to get hurt this season.

Last season, Forte was off the leader by about 500 yards... you're not only asking him to average a full YPC more, but also to get about 50-60 more carries. It's incredibly unlikely he averages anywhere near 5 YPC on the season, and there's no way he sees 360 plus carries.

Thinking of him as a possible leading rusher is... illogical.
Opportunity plus talent is all that is required. IMO both are sufficiently abundant in Chicago. I regularly watch the Bears and have to disagree with your assessments of Forte's abilities. We must not be seeing the same things, or else you are basing your arguments solely on Forte's YPC. Keep in mind that Forte is one of the select few workhorses remaining in the NFL and there have been other talented RBs who also started their careers as workhorse RBs on run heavy teams and averaged sub 4.0 YPC, only to improve in year X+1. It's not unprecedented.

Even so, if no significant changes had taken place in Chicago then I might give more weight to your argument. However, considering the improvements to the Bears O-line and most importantly at QB, there is a very strong likelihood that by season's end you'll be eating those words Switz...

 
Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.
HK,I'm afraid that you are mistaken.Slaton and Green only shared carries in weeks 1, 5-8 and 10-12. Slaton took the majority of carries in each game.They were both stopped week 10 against Baltimore.They both romped weeks 11 and 12.Slaton was the only RB in weeks 3, 4, 9 and every week after 12.Slaton goes to the Top RB in 2009!
This has been covered ad nauseum, but here we go one more time. Look at the distribution of carries just between Ahman Green and Slaton in games when both played, it paints a more accurate picture:CarriesSlaton carries 115Green carries 74 61% for SlatonWhile it was true that Slaton had more carries than Green in the 8 games they both played, he averaged barely 14 carries a game in the process.When Ahman Green played, Slaton had 58% of all RB touches in those games, but when Green did not play, Slaton had 85% of all RB touches.Kubiak runs RBBC when he has a healthy 1st and 2nd stringer, but when he has a choice between the only back on his roster left from training camp and a free agent acquisition made a few weeks ago due to injury to everyone else.....then Slaton is his man. Unless you think Brown, Moats, Foster, and Johson will all be wiped out by Week 2, I wouldn't count on Slaton sniffing the leaderboard.
 
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Take a closer look at his production last year. Pure RBBC whenever available. It's statistically impossible for him to lead the league in rushing based soley on workload. It's all covered in the spotlight threads, so I won't rehash it here.
HK,I'm afraid that you are mistaken.Slaton and Green only shared carries in weeks 1, 5-8 and 10-12. Slaton took the majority of carries in each game.They were both stopped week 10 against Baltimore.They both romped weeks 11 and 12.Slaton was the only RB in weeks 3, 4, 9 and every week after 12.Slaton goes to the Top RB in 2009!
This has been covered ad nauseum, but here we go one more time. Look at the distribution of carries just between Ahman Green and Slaton in games when both played, it paints a more accurate picture:CarriesSlaton carries 115Green carries 74 61% for SlatonWhile it was true that Slaton had more carries than Green in the 8 games they both played, he averaged barely 14 carries a game in the process.When Ahman Green played, Slaton had 58% of all RB touches in those games, but when Green did not play, Slaton had 85% of all RB touches.Kubiak runs RBBC when he has a healthy 1st and 2nd stringer, but when he has a choice between the only back on his roster left from training camp and a free agent acquisition made a few weeks ago due to injury to everyone else.....then Slaton is his man. Unless you think Brown, Moats, Foster, and Johson will all be wiped out by Week 2, I wouldn't count on Slaton sniffing the leaderboard.
Out of all the backs listed I believe that Steve Slaton is the least likely to face 8 men in the box like ADP, Ronnie Brown, S-Jax, Portis etc. Add in the fact that this is the same offensive scheme that made Denver rb's such a commodity and Slaton is almost certain to make the leaderboard (barring injury of course).
 

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