2009 Patriots Offense (1 Viewer)

[The Jerk]

At the risk of inviting the usual Pats homers/Pats haters posts that these threads typically degenerate into...

Heading into 2009, deciding what to do with Patriot offensive personnel was one of the trickiest aspects of draft/auction preparation. Two weeks into the season, there has to be at least some concern over how New England has started the season. I'm sure there are more questions out there, but I'll get this started with a handful of my own:

1. What's going on physically with Welker?

2. Has Moss lost at least half a step?

3. Is it possible that the Patriots will retreat from their spread (with TEs or not) formation approach?

4. Is the offensive line in decline?

5. How long before Brady returns to pre-injury form?

For #5, not the "nearly 4 TDs per game" form of October 2007, just the "has his confidence back and steps into his throws again" form.

All right, -baller. You've made a case for being one of the resident Patriot experts around here and also for how everyone seems to throw their opinion out there concerning New England. Rather than trust my opinion as one of the ignorant, uninformed masses, I am seeking advice on the state of the Patriots moving forward from people like you. (Although, by reading my questions, you can see where I am leaning to some extent.)

 

[Ghost Rider]

From what I have seen, the offensive line is the biggest problem. They are not nearly as dominant as they were in '07. Brady isn't quite himself because of the knee, but he is being rushed on a lot of throws, and that is more about the line than his knee.

I don't see Welker's injury being that big of a deal. He is essentially a possession WR, and they threw some no-name in their yesterday in his stead and he put up similar numbers. Brady, Moss and the offensive line are what makes that offense go. If any of those are askew, it isn't gonna click on all cylinders.

 

[The Jerk]

Ghost Rider,

Thanks. I've only seen parts of both games. Are teams schematically laying back to prevent the deep passes, or is it just pressure not enabling time for those routes to develop, or is it a little of both?

The 2007 playoffs showed teams able to better contain the Patriots through preventing the long pass to Moss. Many scoffed at the notion that the Patriots had been figured out to an extent. Now I'm not so sure. And I'm making these comments more on the Bills game than the Jets game. I'm willing to give the Pats a break on that one given the circumstances and Welker's absence.

 

[greenline]

It isn't Moss per se so much as the Patriots are disciplined in looking for the open receiver. Sometimes it's Joey Galloway and Galloway has dropped some balls.

The offense is a little off right now. Brady is sailing throws and missing targets. It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

Rex Ryan knows how to attack and had an axe to grind.

 

[Buffaloes]

The loss of Josh McDaniels probably factors pretty heavily into the equation as well.

 

[DudeWheresMyRB]

See Manning, Peyton (2008).

OC change could be issue, but I think its Brady working his way back into form. Similarity to Colts situation last season seems strong. Look for Patriots O to begin clicking in October for a playoff push.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

Joey Galloway appears to be a step down from Jabar Gaffney, IMO.

Are the Patriots not running the ball because they aren't having success with it, or is the offense suffering because they aren't running it enough? Or is it both?

 

[The Jerk]

NPD

Thanks for the insight.Encouragement for new all posters

ETA: So you don't post here for five months then come back and post the same three letters in at least 11 threads. What's the deal?

 

[stickboy]

The loss of Josh McDaniels probably factors pretty heavily into the equation as well.

Huhh??? McDaniels was/is an excellent coordinator, and you can say the same about Mangini. But Brady is rusty right now after a year off, and the running game/O-line is playing at a fairly average level. The play calling, formations, and approach (e.g., no huddle) does not appear to be lacking in preparation or adjustment, it's the execution.

 

[The Jerk]

It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

We need to bring back Kool-Aid Larry. He mocked me for my preseason speculation that the Patriots would not approach 2007 numbers due to improved defenses throughout the AFC East compared to two seasons ago (and also for pointing out the diminishing trend in offensive output in the final six regular season games and playoffs). Moss & Welker expect big things in '09, Offense better than '07?I understand it's early, and I'm considering going after Patriots as some may be undervalued, but who and when is the question.

 

[bostonfred]

Brady is rusty and is underthrowing receivers. Part of this may also be that the line isn't keeping teams off Brady as well as they have in the past, and he may be a little gunshy after the injury, causing him to take half a second longer to release the ball, which puts it a step behind where it should be.

Welker is better than Edelman, but at least Edelman fills that role fairly well. It seems realistic that Edelman will take Galloway's role in the offense when/if Welker comes back.

Revis did a great job on Moss. The Bills didn't do nearly as well. I don't think many teams can.

The Pats have seemed hesitant to add the long ball back to their arsenal. And when they did use it - in the middle of a successful drive that had crossed midfield - they missed, and it cost them a chance to score. With the line struggling a little against two defensive lines that traditionally get good pressure against them, it makes sense that they're not looking to keep Brady back all day. When Brady had time, he looked better. With Welker out and Galloway playing poorly, it's a lot harder for the Pats to use their quick slants and slip screens to keep defenses honest, so expect teams to continue to play aggressively against Brady until he gets himself out of this funk. The Seymour trade - and subsequent signing of Kendall Simmons - makes more sense viewed in this context if Belichick saw that his own defense was getting to Brady in practice. And the Pats may be hesitant to take shots downfield and risk a 3 and out after losing Seymour, Mayo and (for a stretch yesterday) Meriweather - this is a team that uses the offense to set up the defense and vice versa.

 

[David Yudkin]

The main issue right now is Brady. It doesn't take much to stall a drive. He has not been in sync and accurate on a number of passes. That has translated nto punts and stalled drives. In the Jets game, he had a couple of passes to open receivers that would have gotten NE into the end zone, so in that case there was a direct loss of points.

For now, there has not been a lot of longer routes to stretch and open up the field. The Pats have had to keep more players in to block than usual to help keep Brady upright. Once Brady gets his sea legs back, defenses will have a harder time. If he's not going to be as precise as normal, defenses can take more risks and blitz more bodies. Basically, until Brady starts making teams pay for rushing extra people, the offense will continue to be a mixed bag of success.

 

[-baller]

It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

We need to bring back Kool-Aid Larry.

haha....yudkin banned him, but since I got a mention, I'll chip in what I can --- bear in mind this is looking through homer glasses, rather than a crystal ball.whenever you see a particular result, there's usually more of a confluence of factors at work, instead of a singualr reason you can lay blame on, so I'll just go through the 2 games and see what we can come up with.

first of all, I'm not sure if this is more of a pats offense thread, or brady's production, but in the buffalo game he actually put up 378 yds + 2 td on 74% completions over 53 passes ---- which isn't 6 td, but it's not all that bad, and new england dominated ToP 37 - 23 min, logging 82 snaps, which might've been second in the league that week.

he had 6 games in 2007 w/fewer than 3 td, and the yardage would've ranked 4th that year behind 399, 388, and 380.

admittedly, they absolutely waxed buffalo in their 2 meetings that year, but I think that might've been the year buf had all those injuries, and let's just give buf a little credit for playing as well as they did in week 1.

I'd have to give schobel all the credit for being the stud player that he is, but if you've got the magnifying glass trained on just the pats, you'd probably find all the things previously mentioned in this thread --- brady being somewhat less than peak form, galloway maybe not quite in synch, and o-line not doing the same job it was in '07.

bearing in mind we're nitpicking a 378/2 and 37 min ToP performance, I'll run through the end of drives where brady didn't punch it in:

1 - 4th and 1 maroney stuffed

2 - 41 yd fg no good

3 - schobel sack

4 - welker tackled at 1 -- rushing td

5 - incomplete to galloway (they got to buf 2)

6 - back to back incompletes

7 - maroney hit for 3 yd loss + incomplete pass (buf 11)

so, you can probably find a bit of everything in there --- not really in synch, a tackle on the 1 robs him of a 378/3 day, schobel does his damage, etc

not as dominant as the 6 td's brees put up, but then again brees wasn't nearly that productive the last time he played detroit, so sometimes it's just circumstance.

I'd call this one a good, if not great performance, held back mostly by a combination of circumstance, some rusty play, and either relatively weaker protection, and/or great effort by buf, depending on which side you want to merit/demerit.

if you're superinterested in that game, here's a great snap by snap breakdown by a fellow pats fan:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patrio...-breakdown.html

ok, so give credit to buffalo, where it's due, and on to week 2 at the jets........

clearly, brady and the team struggled in this one, against an excellent jets defense that had held a pretty prolific houston offense scoreless in week 1.

I think I heard something on sirius about brady getting hit 20+ times, or something like that, but whatever the numbers are, he was clearly under duress most of the game, which again should be credited to the jets, while demeriting our protection.

and while we're handing out credits, let's acknowledge the great job revis does --- in 2008 the jets held moss to 5/48 in both games combined.

so, from the receiver angle, you've got one of the best corners in the game locking down moss, a rookie replacing welker, and a newcomer in galloway who would be counted on to step up, but he caught 5 of his 12 targets ---- which is not entirely on him, but can happen when you're the new guy.

one other angle that probably deserves mention is that the fans should get credited for an absolutely rockin' stadium --- between the crowd, the play by new york, and pats blunders, new england committed a highly uncharacteristic 11(?) penalties for something like 100 yards, wiping out another 50 positive yards in the process, and killing 2 or 3 drives.

at one point, brady actually had 2 back to back delay of games on 3rd down, ending in a punt.

oakland will tell you it's kind of tough to win these kind of games, and I have high hopes that we'll clean some of that up on our own field.

to answer your questions more specifically:

1. What's going on physically with Welker? - gimpy knee

2. Has Moss lost at least half a step? - no

3. Is it possible that the Patriots will retreat from their spread (with TEs or not) formation approach? - everything's possible, but I wouldn't bet money on it

4. Is the offensive line in decline? - possibly

5. How long before Brady returns to pre-injury form? - don't know, but I wouldn't say he's far off --- give the jets credit, just like the giants deserve all the credit in the 'bowl

 

[The Jerk]

It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

We need to bring back Kool-Aid Larry.

haha....yudkin banned him, but since I got a mention, I'll chip in what I can

Thanks. Great reply and exactly what I was hoping for in terms of both depth and specificity. I probably got more benefit out of reading that one reply than in most entire days in the Shark Pool. I'm thinking it will help a lot of people in their roster decisions. I know it helped me.

 

[David Yudkin]

It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

We need to bring back Kool-Aid Larry.

haha....yudkin banned him.

He was never banned. Haven't seen him around.

 

[Zigg]

It's obvious who the keys to New England's success was, Heath Evans and David Thomas. Where do they both play now, for the best offense in the NFL.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I realize that this team is all about Tom Brady, but one thing that has struck me is that New England has gotten away from their running game. IMO, they need some balance right now to settle things down a bit.

 

[CravenM]

I'd hate to bring up a question that I'm not familiar with (but I will):

Brady has 1 newborn baby with a hot babe that he's not married to and has another newbie on the way with his spousal-flat-belly.

Is it possible that he's suffering NDB? (New Daddy Blues)

 

[drcrappants]

lots of speculation but not a lot of facts here.

welker for sure is missed to make defenses pay for blitzing

mcdaniels is very likely missed on balance of play calling (very missed).

did revis shut down moss? moss said he was being doubled all day; revis did do a great job, but what happens when jets are punished for blitzing when welker's screens net 15 yds per play? can't blitz as much, tom brady will have more than the 1.84 seconds he had when he tossed the miscommunication int when moss didn't fully run the route.

can they run? who knows. running would help if they cannot pass as well.

their D is a big problem. not taking away credit from sanchez as a usc student, but a bellichick D making a rookie RB look decent? something is amiss. mayo is missed as well.

no worries yet, until patriots oline cannot do anything and we discover has a missing knee.

 

[Caveman_Nick]

The main issue right now is Brady. It doesn't take much to stall a drive. He has not been in sync and accurate on a number of passes. That has translated nto punts and stalled drives. In the Jets game, he had a couple of passes to open receivers that would have gotten NE into the end zone, so in that case there was a direct loss of points.For now, there has not been a lot of longer routes to stretch and open up the field. The Pats have had to keep more players in to block than usual to help keep Brady upright. Once Brady gets his sea legs back, defenses will have a harder time. If he's not going to be as precise as normal, defenses can take more risks and blitz more bodies. Basically, until Brady starts making teams pay for rushing extra people, the offense will continue to be a mixed bag of success.

I agree with this for the most part. The protection has not been the best, but in the past Brady would make the opposing defense pay for sending extra guys. He is not sharp at this time, at least not full-time sharp. The o-line play needs to improve, but Brady's step back is the main problem. I would guess that by mid-season the offense will be streaming right along.

 

[sheerterror]

It doesn't helped that they played what might be the hardest defense they see until November.

We need to bring back Kool-Aid Larry.

haha....yudkin banned him, but since I got a mention, I'll chip in what I can --- bear in mind this is looking through homer glasses, rather than a crystal ball.whenever you see a particular result, there's usually more of a confluence of factors at work, instead of a singualr reason you can lay blame on, so I'll just go through the 2 games and see what we can come up with.

first of all, I'm not sure if this is more of a pats offense thread, or brady's production, but in the buffalo game he actually put up 378 yds + 2 td on 74% completions over 53 passes ---- which isn't 6 td, but it's not all that bad, and new england dominated ToP 37 - 23 min, logging 82 snaps, which might've been second in the league that week.

he had 6 games in 2007 w/fewer than 3 td, and the yardage would've ranked 4th that year behind 399, 388, and 380.

admittedly, they absolutely waxed buffalo in their 2 meetings that year, but I think that might've been the year buf had all those injuries, and let's just give buf a little credit for playing as well as they did in week 1.

I'd have to give schobel all the credit for being the stud player that he is, but if you've got the magnifying glass trained on just the pats, you'd probably find all the things previously mentioned in this thread --- brady being somewhat less than peak form, galloway maybe not quite in synch, and o-line not doing the same job it was in '07.

bearing in mind we're nitpicking a 378/2 and 37 min ToP performance, I'll run through the end of drives where brady didn't punch it in:

1 - 4th and 1 maroney stuffed

2 - 41 yd fg no good

3 - schobel sack

4 - welker tackled at 1 -- rushing td

5 - incomplete to galloway (they got to buf 2)

6 - back to back incompletes

7 - maroney hit for 3 yd loss + incomplete pass (buf 11)

so, you can probably find a bit of everything in there --- not really in synch, a tackle on the 1 robs him of a 378/3 day, schobel does his damage, etc

not as dominant as the 6 td's brees put up, but then again brees wasn't nearly that productive the last time he played detroit, so sometimes it's just circumstance.

I'd call this one a good, if not great performance, held back mostly by a combination of circumstance, some rusty play, and either relatively weaker protection, and/or great effort by buf, depending on which side you want to merit/demerit.

if you're superinterested in that game, here's a great snap by snap breakdown by a fellow pats fan:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patrio...-breakdown.html

ok, so give credit to buffalo, where it's due, and on to week 2 at the jets........

clearly, brady and the team struggled in this one, against an excellent jets defense that had held a pretty prolific houston offense scoreless in week 1.

I think I heard something on sirius about brady getting hit 20+ times, or something like that, but whatever the numbers are, he was clearly under duress most of the game, which again should be credited to the jets, while demeriting our protection.

and while we're handing out credits, let's acknowledge the great job revis does --- in 2008 the jets held moss to 5/48 in both games combined.

so, from the receiver angle, you've got one of the best corners in the game locking down moss, a rookie replacing welker, and a newcomer in galloway who would be counted on to step up, but he caught 5 of his 12 targets ---- which is not entirely on him, but can happen when you're the new guy.

one other angle that probably deserves mention is that the fans should get credited for an absolutely rockin' stadium --- between the crowd, the play by new york, and pats blunders, new england committed a highly uncharacteristic 11(?) penalties for something like 100 yards, wiping out another 50 positive yards in the process, and killing 2 or 3 drives.

at one point, brady actually had 2 back to back delay of games on 3rd down, ending in a punt.

oakland will tell you it's kind of tough to win these kind of games, and I have high hopes that we'll clean some of that up on our own field.

to answer your questions more specifically:

1. What's going on physically with Welker? - gimpy knee

2. Has Moss lost at least half a step? - no

3. Is it possible that the Patriots will retreat from their spread (with TEs or not) formation approach? - everything's possible, but I wouldn't bet money on it

4. Is the offensive line in decline? - possibly

5. How long before Brady returns to pre-injury form? - don't know, but I wouldn't say he's far off --- give the jets credit, just like the giants deserve all the credit in the 'bowl

This is an outstanding post. As a Brady/Moss owner, as well as Jet fan, I agree with everything said above. People are severely overreacting to week 2 claiming the Patriots offense is in for a down year, Brady is still hurt, Moss is now officially old and slow, blah blah blah etc. while conveniently leaving out the outstanding performance of the offense in week 1 against a very game Buffalo team. I give the Pats offense a pass for week 2, as this Jets defense is looking like something I've never seen before [out of my team at least]. Factoring in the crowd noise - literally the loudest I've ever heard the stadium in the 20 or so games I've been to live, the lack of an experienced Welker to help with the underneath stuff and moving the chains - although I though Edelman played extremely well in his place, and the fact that Brady probably isn't quite in full sync yet, and I'm not worried. It's almost good - as someone heavily invested in the Patriots O this year - that they got one of their meetings with the Jets out of the way early, as it gives Brady additional time to get his rhythm back while getting one of the tougher defenses they will face all year "out of the way."