2009 Predictions (1 Viewer)

[curta269]

After having my fantasy draft on Sunday and watching the '06 World Series DVD last night, I am totally excited for the season to start. Here are my predictions for the 2009 season.

N.L. East--Philadelphia

They did not make a lot of changes in the offseason, but they don't have to. They have a really good club, and the Phillies have a great chance to make the playoffs again. Ibanez is an upgrade over Burrell, and it looks like Utley will be ready for opening day. Hamels injury is a slight concern, but I think he won't even miss his 1st start in opening week. I don't think Lidge will be perfect again, but this team should be able to hold off the Mets.

N.L. Central--St. Louis

OK, I am a homer. I admit it. I pick the Cardinals to win the division every year, and this year is not exception. I honestly do think they will win the divsion over the Cubs, with Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Houston battling over 3rd place. Their 3 question marks are Carpenter's health, finding a Closer, and someone to bat behind Pujols.

Carpenter has been nails this spring. He has had no health problems, and pitched like the Chris Carpenter who won the Cy Young in '05. I expect 25 starts out of him this year, which will be huge for the Cards. I even took him in the 15 round of my fantasy draft. The rest of the rotation is solid, Wellemeyer is pretty much the 4th starter, and his era was 3.71 last season. Wainwright will make the All-Star team in the next couple of seasons, mark my words.

The Closer will end up being Jason Motte. LaRussa and Duncan are trying to take pressure off of him, and they are not going to announce a closer until sometime after the season starts. I think Motte, Franklin, and Kinney will split save opportunities for a while, but this job will go to Motte. He has had a great spring. He is throwing 3 pitches for strikes and has had most of the save opportunities.

Ludwick and Ankiel will take turns hitting 4th. Ludwick is the real deal. The ball just jumps off of his bat. When he hits a ball, it reminds me of Sheffield or Jack Clark. The ball just gets hit hard. Ankiel is in a contract year and has another year of being an OF under his belt. A sleeper in this offense is Kahlil Greene. He has had a nice spring, and I think he just needed a change of scenery. He will hit more like '07 than he did last year. Between him and Schumaker at 2B, their offense will be improved over last year.

N.L. West--Los Angeles

Manny coming back makes this team my pick to win the West, although that isn't really a stretch while looking at their competition--mostly the Giants. Manny is good enough where he will win them 6-8 games by himself. Furcal was resigned as well. He is huge at the top of their lineup and at SS. They have a really good pitching staff and should end up winning this division easily.

Wildcard

I'm picking the Mets over the Cubs in a close race. The one hole the Mets had was their bullpen, and they spent big money to fix it. KRod and Putz will help get this team back into the playoffs. They have a really good lineup as well. Wright, Beltran and Reyes can all carry the team on their own. I actually think Wright will win the MVP this season.

The Cubs made some moves that puzzled me. Letting De Rosa go was a mistake. A guy that can play almost anywhere, hit 20+ HRs and drive in some big runs is invaluable to me. He is also a good locker room guy. They pretty much replaced him with Milton Bradley. He has more talent, but I just don't think he is a good fit. I am also concerned about the health of Big Z and Harden. Zambrano just doesn't seem the same pitcher (did Dusty ruin him like he did Wood and Prior??). Harden can be as good as anyone when he is healthy, but you know he won't make 30 starts this season. The Cubs are a really good team, but I just don't think they will make the playoffs.

A.L. East--New York

With C.C. and Burnett joining Joba, Wang, and Pettitte, they have a solid rotation for '09. They did not have this last year, which is why they didn't make the playoffs. I don't care how good your lineup is, if you don't have the pitching, you won't make the playoffs. I really think Joba belongs in the bullpen though. With him and Rivera in the back of the pen, you make it a 6 inning game.

ARod is a question on his health. Will he last the whole season when he comes back? No one knows for sure. The rest of their lineup is good, and I really like Teixeira hitting in the middle of their order. He very well could drive in 140 runs this year. I think Gardner will bat leadoff and steal 35 bases. Nady will be the primary RF and drive in a 100 runs. They really need Posada to stay healthy this year.

A.L. Central--Cleveland

This division is a crap shoot. The Twins, Tigers and White Sox could all win this division too, if everything goes right. I really think the Royals are going to sneak up on people this year as well.

So, I'm picking the Indians. If Wood stays healthy, he will really solidify the back of their bullpen. They really haven't had a good closer in a while. I think Carmona will rebound, and Cliff Lee will have a good season (no Cy this year though, give it to C.C.). The Mard DeRosa signing is a great addition to this lineup. He can play anywhere and will drive in 80-90 runs. Martinez and Hafner will stay healthy and be back to normal.

A.L. West--Los Angeles

Watching the Cardinals in the 80's with Whitey Herzog as manager taught me one thing about baseball. If you have pitching, speed, and defense, you will win games. You are in every game. This is what the Angles do well. The Abreu signing was huge, although they are already deep in the OF. With his defense and bat, $5 million for a year is the bargain of the offseason. Replacing Teixeira and KRod are the 2 big questions. Fuentes is a good closer, but he is not KRod. Morales will be a good MLB 1B, but will it be this season? He doesn't have to carry the lineup, since they have Hunter, Vlad, and Abreu for that. Their SP is solid too, with Lackey and Saunders at the top of the rotation. They really need Escobar to come off the D.L. quickly and with no problems though to hold off the A's for 1st.

Wildcard--Boston

They will have a great race with the Yankees, but I think they will finish 2nd, holding off the Rays. The rotation is one of the best in baseball, and Papelbon is an elite closer. I am not sure how much Smoltz and Penny will contribute this season, but if they are both healthy, the Red Sox pitching will be deep.

I'm not sold on their lineup. I think Big Poppy is in decline and will miss Manny hitting behind him. Don't get me wrong, Bay is a really good player, and a huge upgrade in LF, but he isn't the hitter Manny is. I do like Ellsbury and Pedroia at the top of the order. Youkilis is a hitter and valuable in 1B/3B and in the clubhouse. He is one of my favorite players to watch. Lowell and Varitek are in decline, and I'm in the JD Drew hater fan club!

They are still a great team and will make the playoffs again.

NL Playoffs

St. Louis over Philly

NY over LA

St. Louis wins NLCS

AL Playoffs

Red Sox over Cleveland

NY over LA

Yankees win ALCS

World Series

Cards over Yankees in 7

 

[cheese]

Yes, you are a homer. I am a Reds fan and I would say the Cubs will win the NL Central by 10 games. Great post to start the thread though.

I'll post the rest of my predictions soon.

 

[guru_007]

AL East:

Yankees

Red Sox

Rays

Orioles

Blue Jays

Yankees - even with the ARod injury, I just feel they are too deep both with their pitching and their offense to not be at or near the top of the division this year. Sabathia and Burnett are good additions to go with Wang, Chamberlin, Petitte. The bullpen is in relatively good condition with Rivera as the closer, still performing well. Marte and Bruney are solid, and they have a ton of arms around. They can always bring up a Hughes or Kennedy if need be and throw Joba to the bullpen, that is not the type of luxury most teams have. Rodriguez should be back by May, so that will enable them to throw out there a lineup of Arod, Tex, Damon, Jeter, Matsui, Cano, Nady, Posada, Cabrera? Maybe not quite as strong as in years past, but still very solid. These guys get on base often (and Swisher on the bench or filling in just is another good obp guy), and they have enough thump in the middle of the lineup to be able to put up a ton of runs. I think the Yankees should win the division this year.

Red Sox - tough call between the Sox and Rays here to be honest, and I'm sure personal bias played a part in me picking them second (and to win the wildcard). They lost Manny which is pretty big. Bay is a nice player, but no Manny. Pedroia should regress quite a bit. So should Youk. Not falling off the cliff, but I think not as good as last year. I'm not a huge Ellsbury fan to be honest. I like the middle of the lineup still with Bay, Youk, Ortiz, Drew (if healthy) and the top of the lineup so-so. I'm afraid Varitek is done, and Lowell and Lowrie/Lugo are going to have to show me something. If Drew can stay healthy and play 135-140 games I think that will be huge. Having Kotsay and Baldelli to fill in off the bench is a nice luxury, but I'm not sure I want to rely on either playing everday. I really like the Red Sox pitching, in particular their bullpen which I feel is the best in the majors. Their top 3 starters are very solid, they may have to do a little patchwork on the #4 & 5, be it Wake, Penny, Smoltz, Buchholz. That should be solid enough. But I really think having 5 or 6 solid relievers is a huge plus and enough to have the Red Sox contending all year. Last year Okajima was overworked and faded. This year, you have Paps, Oki, Saito, Ramirez, Masterson, Lopez, Delcarmen - that's just a great bullpen, righties and lefties, should be plenty of rest to be had. One caveat is sometimes it's easier to close out a game when you know you have a 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy and stud closer and no need to mix and match. This year Francona is going to have to find a groove to get these relievers in to all stay sharp all year.

Rays - yeah, I'm sure a lot of people will say it's ridiculous to say a team as young and talented as the Rays are going to fall to third. I'm saying it. Offense should be solid, gotta love Longoria, Upton (assuming he comes back at full health) and Crawford is nice. I think we have to see some regression by Pena though. Burrell is a nice DH, but not sure how great a fit he is here. I'm sure he'll hit a lot of homers, but he also clogs the bases a bit. Not a huge fan at all of Bartlett to be honest, and not overwhelmed with third outfield situation. Matt Joyce? Gabe Gross? Gabe Kapler? Starting pitching also slightly concerns me. Kazmir and Shields and Garza are decent enough. I think I'd like the pitching a lot more once Price gets back up. I am not impressed by the back of the rotation at all. But the real reason I have the Rays third is their bullpen. Yes, I know it was a huge strength for them last year, but I look at it and cannot possibly see a repeat performance. Percival's stats were very pedestrian last year- he did not overwhelm anyone. And now they added Isringhausen who I am pretty sure is done too. Wheeler doesn't blow people away. Balfour and Howell were huge last year, I have to assume a regression this year for both, as both are coming off of career years, out of nowhere. Their era's were 3 & 4 runs lower than their career numbers. Their WHIPs were done huge. Howell is still young, but Balfour is 31-32... I dunno, I can't see them repeating last year. I think this team is still going to win a lot with their grit, speed, defense and solid starting pitching but I think they fall short at the end of the year, which is why I predict third.

Orioles and Blue Jays are also rans in this division. Simply not enough. Blue Jays starting pitching after Halladay is a wreck, but at least they have one solid pitchers, Orioles have nothing. I hate the Jays offense, which is why I think they come in last. Snider, and Lind are promising youngsters, Rios is nice, the rest of the offense is nothing. I like the Orioles a bit more. But, with no pitching last place is a real possibility.

will add another division later....

 

[shadyridr]

Cardinals

 

[curta269]

Cardinals

I know! But, they blew 31 saves last year. Cut that in half, which I think they will do, they would have made the playoffs. Now add Carpenter, Miller, Reyes and K. Greene, and they are a better team. I'm telling you, put some money on them. You heard it here first!

 

[Limp Ditka]

Cardinals

I know! But, they blew 31 saves last year. Cut that in half, which I think they will do, they would have made the playoffs. Now add Carpenter, Miller, Reyes and K. Greene, and they are a better team. I'm telling you, put some money on them. You heard it here first!

I agree with you I like them a whole lot this year. If Carpenter can hold up and someone can take that closer job and run with it (Motte's been lights out this srping from what I've heard) they should be in the 90 - 95 win range.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Can we move this to the Cardinals forum?

 

[guru_007]

NL Central:

Cubs

Cardinals

Brewers

Reds

Astros

Pirates

Cubs - should have just enough offense to win this division. Ramirez is always solid, Soto batting 7th shows just how strong this lineup should be. Addition of Bradley really sures up the outfield, and being able to not having to rely on ####udome every day should be a benefit. Reed Johnson and So Taguchi are both pretty solid backup outfielders who can give you 300+ ab's each year. Theriot and Fontenot up the middle should provide solid defense and both get on base at a very solid clip. I'm not a huge fan of Soriano batting leadoff, but who the hell am I. Starting pitching may be a question. Will Zambrano bounce back? Will Harden stay healthy? Is Sean Marshall capable of being a solid rotation starter? Dempster and Lilly are both solid innings eaters, but neither is overwhelming. Cubs will probably need to outscore their opponents and most days they should prevail. Bullpen should also be a strength, provided Heilman isn't relied upon to be an everyday pitcher. Marmol and Gregg are both decent enough.

Cardinals - almost ready to jump aboard the Cards bandwagon, but not quite yet. They have the best hitter in the majors and received a huge surprise last year with Ludwick. I don't expect another 2008 for him, but he should be a solid middle of the order type hitter. Ankiel/Duncan/Rasmus should give the Cards another source of run production from the other two outfield spots. I don't expect a Khalil Greene 30 hr revival in St Louis, but his offense will be better than it was at Petco. Molina is solid defensively behind the plate. Not sure who's playing 3rd this year - but nothing special out there. The SP will certainly be helped with Carpenter's return and he has looked good so far this spring. Wainwright is another good arm. The rest of the rotation is pretty bland and to be honest that is why I can't see them overtaking the Cubs. The bullpen was helped by the whole addition by subtraction. Izzy is gone and he was a gascan last year. Cards blew tons of games last year in their bullpen. This year should be marginally better, but it's always better to have an established mlb closer, imho. Motte has looked great in limited appearances. Perez seems to be in line for a future closer spot. Jouneyman Franklin hopefully can get people out. Trever Miller is a good situational lefty.....but he is really the only lefty back there worth anything. Cards usually get it done and are well managed. Could be in the playoff hunt all year long.

Brewers - was just thinking about them last night. May very well have the worst left side of the infield in major league history - defensively speaking. Hardy and Hall are so overrated because they can hit homers. Gamel really should be up, imo. Brewers will be fun to watch. If healthy, Weeks is a good table setter, Hart, Braun and Fielder are all good hitters. Hall and Hardy are always threats to go deep, and strike out. Cameron is the only plus defensive player on this team, and he is not a young man any longer. Defense is the reason I dropped them a bit this year. Defense costs run, costs pitchers extra pitches, and extends innings. Good defenses are usually taken for granted, but most great teams have them. Starting pitching for the Brewers is not really a strength. Parra and Gallardo are promising, but neither is a bonafide number 1 right now. The rest, Suppan, Bush, Looper, are basically ragtag arms and not that great. Bullpen is so-so. Hoffman should provide a decent closer, but getting to Hoffman may be a struggle. Perhaps this team can get a 2008 Rays-like revival from guys like David Riske, Charley Villanueva, Todd Coffey, et al and they do great. If they can, Brewers can win the division. I'm not counting on it, but a .500 + team and in contention for a wildcard spot is not out of the question.

Reds - I like the way this team is shaping up. They got rid of dead weight like Griffey, big contract guys like Dunn, overhyped prospect like Kearns & Pena, and what's left is the making of a solid team. Infield of Votto, Philips, Encarnacion and Gonzalez should be very good. Jay Bruce is an emerging stud. Ramon Hernandez is a solid, oft-underrated catcher. The issue is in center and left. Willy Tavares and Chris Dickerson are both 4th outfielders being relied upon to be 500+ ab contributors. If one (or both) can post decent on base numbers, they both have speed and can cause trouble on the base paths. Starting pitching is another possible strength for this team. Harang should bounce back and will give you a good 200 innings. Arroyo has been effective enough for years. Cueto and Volquez are both strong, young arms. Micah Ownings is another possible good starter. Homer Bailey still waiting in the wings trying to put it altogether. Reds bullpen is decent too. Not a huge fan of Cordero closing, but getting to him Burton, Weathers, Rhodes, Bray, good mix of righties and lefties and all have shown to be capable in the past. If I had to pick a sleeper team in the Central this year, the Reds would be it. More than likely though, Tavares will show he is worthless with his .300 obp, Dickerson will not be much better, Hairston and Jacque Jones will make their way into the lineup well too often, and this team will get a lot of solo hr's and lose a lot of games 5-3.

Astros - Berkman, Lee and Pence make up one of the best 3-4-5 combos in the NL. Adding Rodriguez will be a boost as he still has a decent bat. After that you have nothing. Bourn can't steal first, so is worthless. Blum and Matsui are basically backups with everyday jobs. Tejada is a bit of a wildcard. Obviously his best years are behind him, but if he can put together another solid offensive season, that should help the AStros put up some runs. And they are going to need them. The SP is quite arguably the worst in the majors. Oswalt's best days are behind him, but the guy is still a stud. After that you have nothing, NOTHING. Mike "less than 150 innings in the past 4 years" Hampton is their #2 guy. Things are so bad, that Russ Ortiz, who sports an ERA north of 6.50 since 2004 is in their starting rotation. Contrary to popular opinion, Rodriguez is a gascan. One good start followed by 3 poor ones. Brian Moehler? Come on. Wins by starting pitchers not names Oswalt this year, o/u is set at 35 for the year. Bullpen could be okay again. Valverde is still solid enough. Hawkins is old but gets it done. Brocail, Geary and Sampson can get outs. Problem is, these guys are going to need to come in in the 4th & 5th innings more often than the 7th & 8th.

Pirates - hope springs eternal in Pittsburgh. Steelers are still good. Pens have a nice young team. But the Pirates are going to put up another losing season - their 17th in a row? Starting pitching is weak. Offense, outside of McClouth and Doumit is very weak. Bullpen is mediocre. I think a successful season for the Bucs this year is not to come in last place, and to be honest, they have a good shot of overtaking the Astros this year.

 

[MaddHatter]

AL East

Boston Red Sox

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

AL West

LAA Angels

AL Wild Card

Minnesota Twins

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

NL West

San Francisco Giants

NL Wild Card

LA Dodgers

Red Sox def Twins

White Sox def Angels

Cubs def Dodgers

Phillies def Giants

White Sox def Red Sox

Phillies def Cubs

World Series

Phillies def White Sox

AL Cy Young - Gavin Floyd

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum