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2009 Sleepers & breakout players (1 Viewer)

simmonjm said:
travdogg said:
pizzatyme said:
gonzobill5 said:
The #1 seed in the NFC? Because they added a TE? They play the NFC East and the AFC East this year (the two strongest divisions) instead of the NFC North and the AFC West (two of the weakest divisions). I could see them struggling to win 8 games this year.
I'd argue that the AFC South is stronger than the East.
;) I think the AFC South is the best division in football, even better than the NFC East. I'm confident that the two super bowl teams will come out of these two divisions.Looking at the schedule, I kind of think all AFC South players may be undervalued, its almost unfair that players the caliber of Manning, MJD, CJ3, AJ, Wayne and Clark draw the NFC West.
Not to hijack but Colts < EaglesTitans < GiantsTexans < CowboysJags = or < Redskins
:lmao:
Care to expand on this? Which one do you have a problem with?
 
I'd argue that the AFC South is stronger than the East.Not to hijack but Colts < EaglesTitans < GiantsTexans < CowboysJags = or < Redskins :goodposting:Care to expand on this? Which one do you have a problem with?
Take your pick! I'd say you could flip the sign on all of those matchups. Feel free to start a poll to get other's opinions as well.
 
identikit said:
Don't think he's been mentioned in this thread yet:

Pierre Garcon
Don't sleep on Austin Collie. He was stellar in OTAs. Just sayin...
Garcon is ahead of Collie for the WR3: Caldwell's comments at 1:42-3:40"becoming somewhat of a force", says Caldwell...
Yep, I know what he said. I also know that Collie got separation all over the field and showed why he led the NCAA in Rec. Yds. last year. Honestly I think both of them are closer to #2 Gonzales than people are considering.I could envision some 4 or 5 WR sets this year ala the Pats.

 
QB's

Carson Plamer- will get back to the 20+ td range

Matt Schaub- will stay healthy all year so 25tds possible

DuanteCulpepper- will keep the rookie on the bench and 20tds not out ofthe question

RB's

Ray Rice- will be the lead back by week 5. Could post 1000yds/8 tds

Felix Jones- MBIII's running style get him playing time and he produces big time

Ronnie Brown-maybe not a sleeper or breakout but will finish in the top 10

WR's

Brian Robiskie- don't usually like putting rookieshere but the cards say he's gonna have a good year.

Earl Bennett- He and Cutler reignite their college daysand he'll be Jay's favorite target

Josh Morgan- Could be the 49ers top receiver by season's end

TE's-

Zack Miller- yardagestill gonnabe there but the difference will bean uptick in tds.

Brent Celek- No doubt McNabb likes TE's evenwith the WR's he has.Possible top 10 guy.

Martin Rucker- has the skills of a pass-catching TE and will be used alot. Will surpass the other TE's

 
Blackjacks said:
travdogg said:
Blackjacks said:
I don't think anyone has really listed sleepers (a couple of you have) but when I see names like McFadden and Reggie Bush I have to :unsure:

Here is my list of SLEEPERS

QB Chris Simms

QB Mathew Stafford

RB Justin Forsett

RB Jerome Harrison

WR Chris Henry

WR Robert Meachem

WR Patrick Crayton

TE Martin Rucker

TE Chase Coffman
Starting to really like Stafford, I think I could live with him as my QB2, assuming he beats out Daunte which sounds likely.
I think Dante will start probably around the first 6-8 games and then I think Stafford will get his shot. Anyone throwing to Calvin will put up good stats in the fantasy world.
I think Culpepper is a guy I'll grab in a start 2 QB league that I'm in as a QB3. Considering the situation last year, he was decent at times fantasy-wise and I think there are plenty of reasons to think he'll do better this year. The fact that he likely won't start all year doesn't concern me much, as the last few years there have been some very solid WW quarterbacks. It will be easy to drop Daunte if the right player gets an opportunity. Stafford on the other hand, sounds like a waste of a roster spot. If someone good shows up on the waiver wire, you'll have trouble cutting him holding onto the same hopes you had when you drafted him.

 
I'd argue that the AFC South is stronger than the East.

Not to hijack but

Colts < Eagles

Titans < Giants

Texans < Cowboys

Jags = or < Redskins

:unsure:

Care to expand on this? Which one do you have a problem with?
Take your pick! I'd say you could flip the sign on all of those matchups. Feel free to start a poll to get other's opinions as well.
Poll startedhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=474673
I think you're gonna lose this debate...And as far as one of my sleepers:

I kinda like Sidney Rice this year. I think he has the best and surest hands on the team and with Favre's bullets he is a guy to own. I don't think he puts up great numbers or anything, but his hype will go back up to where it was before.

 
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QB Carson Palmer

QB Matt Schaub

QB David Garrard

RB Ray Rice

RB Cedric Benson

RB Donald Brown

RB Rashard Jennings (MJD won't stay healthy)

RB Gartell Johnson (LT won't stay healthy)

WR Bernard Berrian (Favre + play action)

WR Kevin Walter

WR Josh Morgan

WR Bobby Engram (Wes Welker role)

WR Michael Jenkins (coverage rolling to Gonzo & R White)

TE Randy McMichael

TE Brent Celek

 
Kyle Orton has been on my radar since he was traded. They will use the same NE offense in Denver and Orton played in a similar system in college. He will also have the best weapons he has been around since he entered the NFL.

 
Donald Driver. Rodgers missed a wide open Driver fr the touchdown at least twice last year. He's the 39th WR taken. For a WR3 and potential 2 I see value.

 
Kyle Orton has been on my radar since he was traded. They will use the same NE offense in Denver and Orton played in a similar system in college. He will also have the best weapons he has been around since he entered the NFL.
:goodposting: I'll be targeting him as my QB2 in most leagues.
 
RB Rashard Jennings (MJD won't stay healthy)
:rolleyes: 'Cause he's short? Seriously, why would you say this?
Never been a full time back. Has yet to get 250 + touches. We'll see.
Not sure why 250 is the magic number to determine durability, but....197 rushes

62 receptions

13 kick returns

7 punt returns

adds up to 279 touches
He returns kicks on special teams? Wow, must either be in the coaches doghouse or not very good. :rolleyes:
 
RB Rashard Jennings (MJD won't stay healthy)
:rolleyes: 'Cause he's short? Seriously, why would you say this?
Never been a full time back. Has yet to get 250 + touches. We'll see.
Not sure why 250 is the magic number to determine durability, but....197 rushes

62 receptions

13 kick returns

7 punt returns

adds up to 279 touches
He returns kicks on special teams? Wow, must either be in the coaches doghouse or not very good. :rolleyes:
What does this mean?
 
RB Rashard Jennings (MJD won't stay healthy)
:rolleyes: 'Cause he's short? Seriously, why would you say this?
Never been a full time back. Has yet to get 250 + touches. We'll see.
Not sure why 250 is the magic number to determine durability, but....197 rushes

62 receptions

13 kick returns

7 punt returns

adds up to 279 touches
He returns kicks on special teams? Wow, must either be in the coaches doghouse or not very good. :rolleyes:
You really know allot about the game don't you?
 
Bit of a homer pick, but I like Shonn Greene as a potential sleeper - although perhaps well later in the season.

He's the guy that Rex Ryan seemingly brought into the fold to be his eventual lead back. While Jones is coming off a big year, he's getting up there in age and workload, and he hasn't exactly ingratiated himself with Rex. We've seen how Rex is not hesitant to push the incumbent proven guy aside (see: McGahee, Willis). While Leon Washington remains there, I think he'll remain the PR/KR/3rd down back.

If not this year, then Greene is the guy to have next year and beyond IMO.

 
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I love Felix Jones this year.
It amazes me how far he's falling in drafts. I realize he has a limited sample size, but its not unrealistic to think he could be one of the 5 most explosive running backs in the NFL. He could very well be the back to own in Dallas and he's going in the same area as guys like Tim Hightower and Jamal Lewis in redrafts.
 
Never been a full time back. Has yet to get 250 + touches. We'll see.
Not sure why 250 is the magic number to determine durability, but....197 rushes

62 receptions

13 kick returns

7 punt returns

adds up to 279 touches
He returns kicks on special teams? Wow, must either be in the coaches doghouse or not very good. :rolleyes:
You really know allot about the game don't you?
Could be wrong, but I think he was knocking all the people who now hate Maroney b/c he has been returning kicks in NE
 
sleepers, breakouts and undervalued players

hi billy mays here,

going out on a limb

QB(undervalued)

garrard

delhomme

RB(undervalued)

cedric benson

RB(breakout)

darren mcfadden

RB(Sleepers)

lesean mccoy

andre brown

fred taylor(dont think he is done. i think the stars could align. bellicheck likes vets, fred wasnt brought in to play spec. teams or take a spec teams spot, sammy morris although he has less touches is as old as fred. maroney doesnt have coaching staff trust. freds decline last year was more due to a decimated jax offensive line.)

WR(undervalued)

derrick mason

WR(breakout/sleeper)

mark bradley

josh morgan

davone bess

TE(breakout/sleeper)

brent celek

brad cottam

 
Never been a full time back. Has yet to get 250 + touches. We'll see.
Not sure why 250 is the magic number to determine durability, but....197 rushes

62 receptions

13 kick returns

7 punt returns

adds up to 279 touches
He returns kicks on special teams? Wow, must either be in the coaches doghouse or not very good. :rolleyes:
You really know allot about the game don't you?
Could be wrong, but I think he was knocking all the people who now hate Maroney b/c he has been returning kicks in NE
Exactly. I think it's brutal how down people are on Maroney, at the end of '07 he was breaking out big, worked into the offense as Yudkin told us he would be. Now, Yudkin will say how that was a fluke due to injuries. Which is it, a fluke or you called it correctly David? He was taking alot of time from Faulk in passing downs and spread formations too. His numbers from his rookie year are a good starting point I think for this year. Taylor is done and Morris is a career backup who runs hard until he gets injured. Take Maroney in the 9th- 11th round and you get a player who will at least be a good bye week/injury filler or flex option, with potential for so much more. Thank me later.
 
Exactly. I think it's brutal how down people are on Maroney, at the end of '07 he was breaking out big, worked into the offense as Yudkin told us he would be. Now, Yudkin will say how that was a fluke due to injuries. Which is it, a fluke or you called it correctly David? He was taking alot of time from Faulk in passing downs and spread formations too. His numbers from his rookie year are a good starting point I think for this year. Taylor is done and Morris is a career backup who runs hard until he gets injured. Take Maroney in the 9th- 11th round and you get a player who will at least be a good bye week/injury filler or flex option, with potential for so much more. Thank me later.
Yudkin has gone on and on about how faulk is supposedly stealing all these downs from him, so if somebody could go back to the end of '07 and actually show me how Faulk cripples his production, I'd appreciate it.As for Taylor and Morris, it's certainly true that they'll leech carries, but I don't expect Maroney to log 400 touches in '09.
 
Breakout/Sleeper - Demetrius Williams WR BAL

Now that Mason is gone... can he stay healthy?

Anyone else been holding this guy for upwards of THREE YEARS now?

 
I got this off of a site, so its not mine. Apparently I'm not allowed to say the site, so here it is (link in sig)

"Finding a fantasy sleeper is vital to being successful in fantasy football. If you draft the right players, its easy to win a fantasy championship. That said, I’m going to break down my 10 favorite fantasy sleepers, in no particular order.

1. Dustin Keller, TE Jets – Keller had a solid rookie season last year, catching 48 balls for 535 yards and 3 touchdowns. This year, with Mark Sanchez likely starting at QB, you can be sure that Dustin Keller will improve on those numbers. He’s a fast tall target and will likely be Sanchez’s security blanket this season. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 750 yards and 5 touchdowns should be realistic.

2. Domenik Hixon, WR Giants – Someone has to fill in for Plaxico Burress, and Hixon seems to be the best candidate. He’s tall (6′2″) and fast (4.36 speed in the 40 yard dash) and he was productive in limited time last year (Nearly 600 yards in 7 starts). Hixon should be able to post around 1000 yards and 4 touchdowns next year.

3. Kyle Orton, QB Broncos – Orton quietly threw for about 3000 yards and 18 touchdowns last year in a run first offense. Now with Denver and being taught by Josh McDaniels, Orton is throwing to Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Tony Scheffler and he is also playing behind an offensive line that gave up only 12 sacks last season. His numbers should go up a lot with those targets. He should post in the neighborhood of 3600 yards and 25 total touchdowns.

4. Anthony Gonzalez, WR Colts – Gonzalez didn’t have a great season last year, but this year he’ll be the number 2 wide receiver on the Colts offense. In addition to the fact that he catches passes from Peyton Manning, Gonzalez is loaded with talent and is entering his third year, where receivers often break out. He’s should post around 1100 total yards and 7 touchdowns.

5. Trent Edwards, QB Bills – Edwards is a better real quarterback than a fantasy quarterback, but with the addition of TO and reports that the Bills will be running the spread offense a lot more, Edwards should post some decent numbers. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 3300 yards and 20 touchdowns seems realistic. He’ll probably be better suited as a number 2 QB that can be started based on the match up. His offensive line could be a problem though.

6. Felix Jones, RB Cowboys – Jones played in 0nly 6 games last season due to injury, but this year he is without a doubt going to receive much more playing time. In limited time, Jones managed a very impressive 8.9 yard per carry average. Obviously, with more carries that number is going to go down, but Jones is still in line to post some good numbers. He’s probably going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 150-200 carries and you can expect around 1000 total yards with around 8 touchdowns. He also has added value as a returner.

7. Donnie Avery, WR Rams – Avery had a good rookie season, managing 53 receptions for 674 yards and 3 touchdowns. He will build on those totals as he is going to be the top target in the Rams offense. He has excellent speed and will likely post around 70 receptions for 900-1000 yards and 5 touchdowns.

8. Greg Olsen, TE Bears – Now in his third year, Olsen is poised for a major breakout season. New Bears QB Jay Cutler loves his tight ends and will look to Olsen frequently this year. Olsen is a very tall target for Cutler and he is too fast for linebackers and safeties that cover him and too big for cornerbacks that cover him. He is a good receiving tight end and should post at least 800 yards and 8 touchdowns. He could be a steal if you can get him in the later rounds.

9. Devin Thomas, WR Redskins – Though his rookie season may have been a mess, Devin Thomas will post much better numbers in his second year. He has unlimited potential and is capable of posting great numbers if he can learn the offense. He is a big and fast receiver with solid hands but learning the offense has been his biggest problem. He seems to have dedicated himself this off season and could take over the number 2 receiving job from Antwaan Randle El. If all goes well, Thomas could have around 800 total yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s worth taking a late round flier on.

10. Devin Hester, WR Bears – As the top receiving option in the Bears offense, Devin Hester is a definite fantasy sleeper. He has world class speed and is a great route runner. If he can improve his catching, Hester could post some impressive numbers. Last year he had 665 yards in 8 starts, so he can definitely have a 1000 yard season with Jay Cutler throwing to him. He probably won’t be too consistent, though."

 
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Exactly. I think it's brutal how down people are on Maroney, at the end of '07 he was breaking out big, worked into the offense as Yudkin told us he would be. Now, Yudkin will say how that was a fluke due to injuries. Which is it, a fluke or you called it correctly David? He was taking alot of time from Faulk in passing downs and spread formations too. His numbers from his rookie year are a good starting point I think for this year. Taylor is done and Morris is a career backup who runs hard until he gets injured. Take Maroney in the 9th- 11th round and you get a player who will at least be a good bye week/injury filler or flex option, with potential for so much more. Thank me later.
Yudkin has gone on and on about how faulk is supposedly stealing all these downs from him, so if somebody could go back to the end of '07 and actually show me how Faulk cripples his production, I'd appreciate it.As for Taylor and Morris, it's certainly true that they'll leech carries, but I don't expect Maroney to log 400 touches in '09.
Faulk played 43.5 percent of the running back snaps the last two seasons, more than any other New England back.
Per Mike Reiss
 
ok, now show me how that crippled his production at the end of '07.

edit: and by the way that is a ridiculous quote.

 
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ok, now show me how that crippled his production at the end of '07.

edit: and by the way that is a ridiculous quote.
I indicated in the past that Faulk was on the field more than any other Pats RB the past few years and you've asked for a link seveal times. I added a link to support it. Now you have added the proviso that it had to have impacted Maroney's numbers in a handful of games where he was the only healthy ball carrier. Heading into this year, Reiss had this to say just the other day . . .

As for the starting running back, I think it begins with Kevin Faulk. This offense is at its best passing the football and Faulk is the top weapon and best pass protector in the single-back set with three or four receivers, as evidenced by the fact he's played more than any running back over the last two seasons (941 of 2,159 snaps, 43.5 percent). So I look at the question this way: How will the other 56.5 percent of the running back snaps get split up? I'd start with Taylor, but with the understanding that the coaching staff will ride the hot hand.
LINKPeople still have a thing for Maroney, even though his career high has been 835 rushing yards and 6 rushing TD in a season. As for Maroney and THIS YEAR, there's no denying that he's on the bottom rungs of a RBBC. He would need injuries to the other backs and/or far outclass the other guys production wise to put up noteworthy fantasy numbers.

Sure, he did well for the last month of 2007. But he has not been light years ahead of the other RBs on the roster (and in fact was not as productive compared to his peers as I outlined in another thread).

Fantasy wise, Maroney is worth taking as a mid round pick based on the chance that he could see more time on the field, but I would not hang my hat on him being a key contributor to my fantasy team.

 
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reggie Bush just breaks out one of these years for over 2000 all purpose yards
I'm totally in agreement with you. I just wish he can stay healthy, because I have him in a keeper league.
 
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reggie Bush just breaks out one of these years for over 2000 all purpose yards
I'm totally in agreement with you. I just wish he can stay healthy, because I have him in a keeper league.
Until Bush becomes a better runner between the tackles he will never come close to 2000 all purpose yds. Let's face it, he doesn't like the contact.
 
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Bit of a homer pick, but I like Shonn Greene as a potential sleeper - although perhaps well later in the season.He's the guy that Rex Ryan seemingly brought into the fold to be his eventual lead back. While Jones is coming off a big year, he's getting up there in age and workload, and he hasn't exactly ingratiated himself with Rex. We've seen how Rex is not hesitant to push the incumbent proven guy aside (see: McGahee, Willis). While Leon Washington remains there, I think he'll remain the PR/KR/3rd down back.If not this year, then Greene is the guy to have next year and beyond IMO.
Did Ryan have that ability in Baltimore? I thought he was the DC? Either way, it will be intersting to see how he plays this out. He has three good RBs (just like they had in Baltimore). If he goes by that example, Greene could have a "McClain" type year and Greene would certainly outperform his ADP. But this is his first time the entire baby is his, and if that is the case, all bets are off.
 
David Yudkin said:
Now you have added the proviso that it had to have impacted Maroney's numbers in a handful of games where he was the only healthy ball carrier.
I didn't add any provisos, I asked a specific question which you ducked, so it was reiterated.Here, I will quote my post and your answer --- maybe you just skimmed past it the first time:

Yudkin has gone on and on about how faulk is supposedly stealing all these downs from him, so if somebody could go back to the end of '07 and actually show me how Faulk cripples his production, I'd appreciate it.

As for Taylor and Morris, it's certainly true that they'll leech carries, but I don't expect Maroney to log 400 touches in '09.
To which you replied:
David Yudkin said:
Faulk played 43.5 percent of the running back snaps the last two seasons, more than any other New England back.
Per Mike Reiss
How that answers my question, I have no idea ---- and, by the way, I love me some Mike Reiss.But this is the kind problem a lot of people have when they start trying to use statistics to answer everything.

If you happen to think Maroney will miss 13 games this year, then yes, I would imagine Faulk gets way more snaps than he does.

Is that the case you're making with that linked quote from Reiss?

I will follow up with some stats of my own, just not right now.

 
Yudkin, if you want to shut this guy up (as you always do lol) I would go look at snap percentage for games when both RB were healthy if you can.

 
Yudkin, if you want to shut this guy up (as you always do lol) I would go look at snap percentage for games when both RB were healthy if you can.
Yeah, that was actually the forthcoming stats I alluded to earlier.I'll do some week by weeks from '07 after a Starbux run.

Hopefully, that will shut you up, although I know Yudkin will keep swingin'.

So much hate......

 
I am going to throw Dwayne Jarret of the panthers out there. The kid came into the league really young and is entering his third year. Musim Muhammed is getting old and Jarret has caught everything that has been thrown his way (he just hasn't had a lot thrown his way). I'm picking him up in all my leagues.

 
I am going to throw Dwayne Jarret of the panthers out there. The kid came into the league really young and is entering his third year. Musim Muhammed is getting old and Jarret has caught everything that has been thrown his way (he just hasn't had a lot thrown his way). I'm picking him up in all my leagues.
Wow...just wow. Totally off my radar and you are 100% correct. Someone else in the thread mentioned there are "no true sleepers out there anymore" and for the most part, he is correct, but I think you may have found one. In NC we love us some Mush, but he is getting long in the tooth and Jarret has not really been given a fair shot. I would love to see 900 yards and 6 TDs out of him this year, but I fear he will get 700 yards, 4 TDs and be everyone's "sleeper" going into '10...very slick call, Sherm...my Raleigh brother from another mother.
 

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