CalBear
Footballguy
"Sleep" is too light a word. "Comatose" might be better.I had JWB ahead of the pack so far, so it's good to see a bit of a stumble.
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2010 Anarchy League 2 Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Yudkin
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
I've got you totally covered with St. Louis and Carolina. (At least I wasn't forced to take a Stanfraud QB). 12 of 16 of us are limited to one position in the last round; come on, guys, predrafting this should be easy, even for the JV.Man are you guys going to be sorry that you slept on the Cleveland and Buffalo passing attacks.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Some of the drafters have made better picks in the last two rounds than they did in previous rounds irritating since I hoped a couple of those guys would be bypassed again
irritating since I hoped a couple of those guys would be bypassed again nittanylion
Footballguy
Drafting from the 15 Hole...
QB TeamColts
QB TeamRaiders
RB MBarber, Cowboys
RB MBush, Raiders
RB McGahee, Ravens
RB TChoice, Cowboys
WR Wayne, Colts
WR Crabtree, 49'ers
WR Driver, Packers
WR JJones, Packers
WR KWalter, Texans
WR JJones, Texans
TE Keller, NYJ
TE Boss, NYG
PK Buehler, Cowboys
PK
D/ST Redskins
D/ST
With my Draft 'locked in' and only 2 pre-determined selections remaining, time to take a look at things.
Overall, I'm pretty pleased with how this worked out, which is rare for me, because I absolutely hate 16-Team Serpentine Drafts. I love these because of the talent level of the other Drafters, and how much they help me prep for High Stakes, though, so I keep on doing 'em despite how they usually kick my butt...
It's a 21 Week Contest, but 20 Teams only accrue 16 Weeks of Stats, and only 2 NFL Teams will accrue Points all the way through to the end. Whether I take this too much into consideration, it weighs heavily on my decisions...I don't see a Team in the NFL capable of stopping the Colts from going to the Super Bowl this Season, and going in, I wanted to have some Colts on the Roster, in various configurations, based on how the Draft shook out. With the scoring system being what it is, and the value cupboard picked relatively bare by the time it got down to the bottom of the 1st, teaming up PManning/Wayne at the 1st turn seemed like the right thing to do. Of course, it would have been optimal to pair Manning and DClark, but this isn't a bad consolation. If I'm right about the Colts, I won't have this production in Week 7 (bye), 17 (rest/Manning's backup) and 18 (bye), but the rest of the Season, I'm loving it. Unfortunately, that was all the Colts I was able to nail down. I wanted to get at least one other Colt receiver who'd be playing in Week 17 when Wayne would be sitting, but Garcon and Collie went earlier than I anticipated. I'm in the camp that thinks Wayne won't be negatively affected by the emergence of other receivers. I think Garcon has the WR2 spot locked down, and Collie and Gonzo will compete for the slot scraps until the end of the Season, and that Garcon, Collie and Gonzo will not deprive Wayne from receptions, but rather enable him the benefit of looser coverage by necessity. It may have been shortsighted to take Wayne over an Elite TE (Tony Gonzalez was available), but I would have felt compelled to spend 2-3 Draft Picks - and reach - to nab Garcon, Collie and/or Gonzalez if I didn't make this move, so I'm OK with how I handled it. Wayne will make up for it, points wise, as I strongly feel he'll log more games than Tony G...
The TE's just FLEW off the board though, between Rounds 2-3, and by the time 3.15 rolled around, the cupboard was almost bare. I got lucky with Crabtree lasting to that point, who I think makes a fine #2, and then I cringed as I pulled the trigger on Dustin Keller at the 4.02, but I just felt compelled to do it. I feel strongly that the 49'ers are going to win the NWest and that the NFC Playoffs are up for grabs, so I'll get at least an extra Game out of him. I think the Jets are going to win the AEast, as well as a Playoff Game, so that's 2 extra Games out of Keller. I also think that Keller is going to be the most consistent piece of that passing offense, and Sanchez (as a committee member) and Keller are the only Jets I'm targeting in my Drafts, so there was some upside, at least.
With the PPR configured how it was, I wanted to wait on RB and get guys who would score TD's. Thrilled to land my projected NEast Division Winner and Playoff Participant Dallas RB Barber at the end of Round 5. I have him pegged as a sleeper to begin with, due to the Felix Hype. I think at worst they split production, and I got him almost 30 picks after FJones. Similarly thrilled to get Driver as WR3 in Round 6. Receptions galore, and Playoff bound. Can't beat that.
I think Mike Bush was great value at the end of Round 7, and I think Kevin Boss is one of the most under-rated TE's going into 2010, and I was very pleased to get him in Round 8 to pair with Keller. I project Oakland to win the AWest and the Giants to be an NFC Wild Card, so I get the extra Games. For what it's worth, I play a ton of High Stakes, and last year invested heavily in TE Owen Daniels, and had to scramble value during the Season after he got hurt, when I stumbled upon the hidden gold that I believe Kevin Boss to be. He's one of the few TE's remaining that not only is a critical piece of his Offense's running game, but has soft hands, and knows how to find soft spots in coverage. Coughlin and Eli trust him, and although Nicks and Barden offer the Giants some size now, Boss is SIX FEET SEVEN INCHES of TE Love, and is ultra reliable in the Red Zone. Finally, as a critical piece of the running game, and being a true 2-way TE, Boss spends an incredibly high percentage of total offensive plays on the field - he almost doesn't come off, which means opportunity. I realize there are too many mouths to feed given the Giants array of personnel, but Boss has earned touches based on reliability, versatility, and hard work moreso than anyone except Smith, in my opinion, and he'll get his. I've spent too much time on Kevin Boss. Sorry.
So I'm feeling good. Through Round 8 I'm QBColts, MB3/MBush, Wayne/Crabtree/Driver, Keller/Boss...then I absolutely got murdered in the 8/9 Turn. Fred Jackson, Tim Hightower, Chester Taylor, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Donald Brown, Darren McFadden, and Tomlinson, in addition to Austin Collie, as well as Donnie Avery, and probably some others I liked, all were sniped. That's one of the best scoops of value I've ever seen in a Draft, and very disheartening. Kinda left me shell-shocked. It was a toss up at that point between McGahee and Thomas Jones, and I went with the younger guy who I have projected as going to the Playoffs. Thing of it is, though, I'm not a JCharles guy AT ALL, and I think at Season's end we're going to look at the stats and see a pretty even split in KC...it's just that the Ravens will run the ball...better...and will play extra games. Wanted an upside QB with Playoffs to pair with Manning, and got one in Campbell/Raiders. I'm a huge Campbell fan, and am happy for him that he's in a new environment, with a decent O-Line, some quality short range skill players and a stout defense. He's going to have time to throw this year, and between McFadden, ZMiller, Schillens and Murphy, and maybe even DHB from the sound of things, I'm excited about his prospects.
When it came back around, I took a calculated gamble...without Garcon or Collie in the fold, I decided to try and get the #2/#3's from 2 powerful passing attacks - Houston and Green Bay. Even though I personally like Walter better than Jacoby Jones, Jacoby is the hotter commodity right now, so I took him 1st, hoping Walter would fall to me later. I also felt James Jones would fall due to Driver's contract getting extended, so I passed on them both with my next Pick, taking Tashard Choice as MB3 insurance. I sweated out the next 28 Picks, and then snagged KWalter and James Jones with 13.15 and 14.02. Having ignored PK and D/ST up to that point, that was pretty much my Draft.
For waiting all the way to my last 4 Picks, I could have done a lot worse than Buehler/Gano and Redskins/Chiefs in those spots, and although I'll probably only carry Beuhler into the NFL Playoffs, I think there's a better than average chance that the rest of my Team is going to be playing at least 1 extra Game: Colts, Texans, Jets, Ravens Raiders, Cowboys, 49'ers, Packers, Giants. Yep, all going, IMO...but what do I know?
I really like how things worked out, and for the 1st Time since the Anarchy Leagues were created, I have high hopes for my Team - I think I have a chance to finish well within the top half, and that's a big deal to me since I always finish around the middle to low end of the Pack.
Critiques welcome, and Good Luck to all!!!
QB TeamColts
QB TeamRaiders
RB MBarber, Cowboys
RB MBush, Raiders
RB McGahee, Ravens
RB TChoice, Cowboys
WR Wayne, Colts
WR Crabtree, 49'ers
WR Driver, Packers
WR JJones, Packers
WR KWalter, Texans
WR JJones, Texans
TE Keller, NYJ
TE Boss, NYG
PK Buehler, Cowboys
PK
D/ST Redskins
D/ST
With my Draft 'locked in' and only 2 pre-determined selections remaining, time to take a look at things.
Overall, I'm pretty pleased with how this worked out, which is rare for me, because I absolutely hate 16-Team Serpentine Drafts. I love these because of the talent level of the other Drafters, and how much they help me prep for High Stakes, though, so I keep on doing 'em despite how they usually kick my butt...
It's a 21 Week Contest, but 20 Teams only accrue 16 Weeks of Stats, and only 2 NFL Teams will accrue Points all the way through to the end. Whether I take this too much into consideration, it weighs heavily on my decisions...I don't see a Team in the NFL capable of stopping the Colts from going to the Super Bowl this Season, and going in, I wanted to have some Colts on the Roster, in various configurations, based on how the Draft shook out. With the scoring system being what it is, and the value cupboard picked relatively bare by the time it got down to the bottom of the 1st, teaming up PManning/Wayne at the 1st turn seemed like the right thing to do. Of course, it would have been optimal to pair Manning and DClark, but this isn't a bad consolation. If I'm right about the Colts, I won't have this production in Week 7 (bye), 17 (rest/Manning's backup) and 18 (bye), but the rest of the Season, I'm loving it. Unfortunately, that was all the Colts I was able to nail down. I wanted to get at least one other Colt receiver who'd be playing in Week 17 when Wayne would be sitting, but Garcon and Collie went earlier than I anticipated. I'm in the camp that thinks Wayne won't be negatively affected by the emergence of other receivers. I think Garcon has the WR2 spot locked down, and Collie and Gonzo will compete for the slot scraps until the end of the Season, and that Garcon, Collie and Gonzo will not deprive Wayne from receptions, but rather enable him the benefit of looser coverage by necessity. It may have been shortsighted to take Wayne over an Elite TE (Tony Gonzalez was available), but I would have felt compelled to spend 2-3 Draft Picks - and reach - to nab Garcon, Collie and/or Gonzalez if I didn't make this move, so I'm OK with how I handled it. Wayne will make up for it, points wise, as I strongly feel he'll log more games than Tony G...
The TE's just FLEW off the board though, between Rounds 2-3, and by the time 3.15 rolled around, the cupboard was almost bare. I got lucky with Crabtree lasting to that point, who I think makes a fine #2, and then I cringed as I pulled the trigger on Dustin Keller at the 4.02, but I just felt compelled to do it. I feel strongly that the 49'ers are going to win the NWest and that the NFC Playoffs are up for grabs, so I'll get at least an extra Game out of him. I think the Jets are going to win the AEast, as well as a Playoff Game, so that's 2 extra Games out of Keller. I also think that Keller is going to be the most consistent piece of that passing offense, and Sanchez (as a committee member) and Keller are the only Jets I'm targeting in my Drafts, so there was some upside, at least.
With the PPR configured how it was, I wanted to wait on RB and get guys who would score TD's. Thrilled to land my projected NEast Division Winner and Playoff Participant Dallas RB Barber at the end of Round 5. I have him pegged as a sleeper to begin with, due to the Felix Hype. I think at worst they split production, and I got him almost 30 picks after FJones. Similarly thrilled to get Driver as WR3 in Round 6. Receptions galore, and Playoff bound. Can't beat that.
I think Mike Bush was great value at the end of Round 7, and I think Kevin Boss is one of the most under-rated TE's going into 2010, and I was very pleased to get him in Round 8 to pair with Keller. I project Oakland to win the AWest and the Giants to be an NFC Wild Card, so I get the extra Games. For what it's worth, I play a ton of High Stakes, and last year invested heavily in TE Owen Daniels, and had to scramble value during the Season after he got hurt, when I stumbled upon the hidden gold that I believe Kevin Boss to be. He's one of the few TE's remaining that not only is a critical piece of his Offense's running game, but has soft hands, and knows how to find soft spots in coverage. Coughlin and Eli trust him, and although Nicks and Barden offer the Giants some size now, Boss is SIX FEET SEVEN INCHES of TE Love, and is ultra reliable in the Red Zone. Finally, as a critical piece of the running game, and being a true 2-way TE, Boss spends an incredibly high percentage of total offensive plays on the field - he almost doesn't come off, which means opportunity. I realize there are too many mouths to feed given the Giants array of personnel, but Boss has earned touches based on reliability, versatility, and hard work moreso than anyone except Smith, in my opinion, and he'll get his. I've spent too much time on Kevin Boss. Sorry.
So I'm feeling good. Through Round 8 I'm QBColts, MB3/MBush, Wayne/Crabtree/Driver, Keller/Boss...then I absolutely got murdered in the 8/9 Turn. Fred Jackson, Tim Hightower, Chester Taylor, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Donald Brown, Darren McFadden, and Tomlinson, in addition to Austin Collie, as well as Donnie Avery, and probably some others I liked, all were sniped. That's one of the best scoops of value I've ever seen in a Draft, and very disheartening. Kinda left me shell-shocked. It was a toss up at that point between McGahee and Thomas Jones, and I went with the younger guy who I have projected as going to the Playoffs. Thing of it is, though, I'm not a JCharles guy AT ALL, and I think at Season's end we're going to look at the stats and see a pretty even split in KC...it's just that the Ravens will run the ball...better...and will play extra games. Wanted an upside QB with Playoffs to pair with Manning, and got one in Campbell/Raiders. I'm a huge Campbell fan, and am happy for him that he's in a new environment, with a decent O-Line, some quality short range skill players and a stout defense. He's going to have time to throw this year, and between McFadden, ZMiller, Schillens and Murphy, and maybe even DHB from the sound of things, I'm excited about his prospects.
When it came back around, I took a calculated gamble...without Garcon or Collie in the fold, I decided to try and get the #2/#3's from 2 powerful passing attacks - Houston and Green Bay. Even though I personally like Walter better than Jacoby Jones, Jacoby is the hotter commodity right now, so I took him 1st, hoping Walter would fall to me later. I also felt James Jones would fall due to Driver's contract getting extended, so I passed on them both with my next Pick, taking Tashard Choice as MB3 insurance. I sweated out the next 28 Picks, and then snagged KWalter and James Jones with 13.15 and 14.02. Having ignored PK and D/ST up to that point, that was pretty much my Draft.
For waiting all the way to my last 4 Picks, I could have done a lot worse than Buehler/Gano and Redskins/Chiefs in those spots, and although I'll probably only carry Beuhler into the NFL Playoffs, I think there's a better than average chance that the rest of my Team is going to be playing at least 1 extra Game: Colts, Texans, Jets, Ravens Raiders, Cowboys, 49'ers, Packers, Giants. Yep, all going, IMO...but what do I know?
I really like how things worked out, and for the 1st Time since the Anarchy Leagues were created, I have high hopes for my Team - I think I have a chance to finish well within the top half, and that's a big deal to me since I always finish around the middle to low end of the Pack.
Critiques welcome, and Good Luck to all!!!
CalBear
Footballguy
OK, even without an auto-pick, Pimp screwed up; he couldn't take another TE, he needs a PK.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Seahawks, Seattle SEA TMQB - 10.13
Titans, Tennessee TEN TMQB - 8.13
Couldn't see investing early in the top tier teams. TEN might not be bad. Their QB totals were decent with Young once he took over last year. SEA projected out a far amount higher than the teams that were left on the board, so IMO they were better than the other bottom tier options.
Addai, Joseph IND RB - 5.04
Foster, Arian HOU RB - 9.04
Rice, Ray BAL RB - 1.04
Smith, Kevin DET RB - 15.04
I've tried ignoring the RB position in the past without much success. Rice should again be solid, Addai is on the Colts and should get decent scoring, Foster at least for now looks like the most likely starter, and Smith is way ahead of schedule and should at least stand a chance of doing better than expected.
Colston, Marques NOS WR - 10 2.13
Doucet, Early ARI WR - 6 17.04
Hester, Devin CHI WR - 8 6.13
Mason, Derrick BAL WR - 8 7.04
Tate, Brandon NEP WR - 5 16.13
Welker, Wes NEP WR - 5 4.13
No one that really wows you but as a unit I think they will do ok. I'm not so sure Boldin steps in in BAL and becomes the go to guy, as Flacco and Mason seem to have some good unity. Welker, if he is close to his old self and in the playoffs, would be a steal at WR23. Tate is looking like the starter opposite Moss.
Cooley, Chris WAS TE - 3.04
Graham, Daniel DEN TE - 18.13
With all the gobbling up of TE, getting Cooley was a bit of a must. I was surprised that Graham went almost undrafted. With Sheffler gone, Graham is the starter in DEN.
Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK - 12.13
Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 13.04
They're kickers and they have been half way decent in the past.
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def - 14.13
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def - 11.04
Should both be playoff teams again.
I don't love or hate this team and on paper it looks to be middle of the road. But we all know with injuries and players losing jobs/getting more playing time that things can change as the year goes on . . .
Titans, Tennessee TEN TMQB - 8.13
Couldn't see investing early in the top tier teams. TEN might not be bad. Their QB totals were decent with Young once he took over last year. SEA projected out a far amount higher than the teams that were left on the board, so IMO they were better than the other bottom tier options.
Addai, Joseph IND RB - 5.04
Foster, Arian HOU RB - 9.04
Rice, Ray BAL RB - 1.04
Smith, Kevin DET RB - 15.04
I've tried ignoring the RB position in the past without much success. Rice should again be solid, Addai is on the Colts and should get decent scoring, Foster at least for now looks like the most likely starter, and Smith is way ahead of schedule and should at least stand a chance of doing better than expected.
Colston, Marques NOS WR - 10 2.13
Doucet, Early ARI WR - 6 17.04
Hester, Devin CHI WR - 8 6.13
Mason, Derrick BAL WR - 8 7.04
Tate, Brandon NEP WR - 5 16.13
Welker, Wes NEP WR - 5 4.13
No one that really wows you but as a unit I think they will do ok. I'm not so sure Boldin steps in in BAL and becomes the go to guy, as Flacco and Mason seem to have some good unity. Welker, if he is close to his old self and in the playoffs, would be a steal at WR23. Tate is looking like the starter opposite Moss.
Cooley, Chris WAS TE - 3.04
Graham, Daniel DEN TE - 18.13
With all the gobbling up of TE, getting Cooley was a bit of a must. I was surprised that Graham went almost undrafted. With Sheffler gone, Graham is the starter in DEN.
Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK - 12.13
Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 13.04
They're kickers and they have been half way decent in the past.
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def - 14.13
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def - 11.04
Should both be playoff teams again.
I don't love or hate this team and on paper it looks to be middle of the road. But we all know with injuries and players losing jobs/getting more playing time that things can change as the year goes on . . .
CalBear
Footballguy
I decided to approach this draft with a slightly modified strategy; I was going to leave my QB and D picks to the last four rounds, no matter what. After taking Pennington/MIA in the mid rounds last year and ending up with a bottom-tier QB, I am convinced that there’s no reason to go early in this format. I did a bit of a study on the last QBs and Ds drafted; how did they do during the season? Turns out that of QBs drafted 28-32, they finished on average as QB 21.56, and of Ds drafted 28-32, they finished on average as D 19.40. In other words, the population was still below average, but not a whole lot below average. In fact, in all five years of Anarchy there has been a top-10 defense selected in the bottom five picks, and in four of those years it was selected in the bottom two picks. So why go early?
Other than that, a static roster league like this is mostly about finding value and selecting the right players. I’m definitely behind on my player evaluation, so this draft will give me a chance to catch up. I started with the base FBG projections and I’ll tweak them a bit as I see things I think are out of whack.
I don’t like the 10 spot much; it’s a good ways down in the first round, and not close enough to the turn to have much of an effect on the way the draft goes. But we’ll see how it goes.
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)
In previous years I would have gone for Gonzo here, but even as a Cal homer I can’t really justify it with Fitzgerald still on the board. Fitz only fell this far because he lost Warner, but even with Leinart at QB you’re looking at one of the top two or three WRs in the league in a situation where he’s likely to get 150 targets. The overall Cardinals offense is going to take a hit this year, but Fitz should still be studly.
Plus, there’s a decent chance I’ll be able to get Gonzo at my second pick; the QB-picking chumps are getting going, and this year we might see Witten, Davis, and Finley go before Gonzo.
2.07 Desean Jackson (WR PHI) [Go Bears!]
Hook snagged Gonzo a few picks earlier, which left me with a choice of WRs. RB value is for crap, and the dropoff from Gonzo/Davis to Celek and the rest of the TE crew is pretty drastic. The top WR on my board was R.White, taken just before me by radballs, which left me feeling fine about taking Jackson, who was actually second on my board after White. I do have Jackson projected a little ahead of Dodds, but with completely plausible numbers (70/1100/8).
The other two contenders here were Colston and Jennings, who will probably go within the next five picks or so. By the time it comes back around to me, I’m pretty sure I won’t be excited about anyone on the board; the one guy I’m hoping to land is Ochocinco. After that it’s all damaged goods.
3.10 Steve Smith (WR NYG)
Just Win Baby snaked Ochocinco two picks before mine, which dropped me down into my next tier of players (those I’m not very excited about). Our drafting has been pretty good to this point, with value being taken about equally from all positions; here I considered Owen Daniels, Ryan Grant, and even Philip Rivers, who all offered similar value. But in the end it looked most promising to take the “best of the rest” WR, which I judged as “the other” Steve Smith (over Hines Ward and Hakeem Nicks). With PPR I think Smith is a more reliable choice than either of the others; Nicks might score more points in non-PPR, but Smith should get more targets and more receptions. Ward’s QB situation knocks him down or I might have gone that way.
Now we’re looking at a big glut of more-or-less-equivalent RBs, who will probably start going off the board soon. I’m expecting my next pick will be RB; perhaps Chris Wells or Pierre Thomas.
4.07 Hines Ward (WR PIT)
radballs snaked Chris Wells the pick before me; he was at the top of my draft board, but I had Hines Ward second, since I’d been considering him at 3.10 anyway. With Holmes gone, it seems a lock that Ward will get a ton of targets, and he’s showed no signs of slowing down. I really think he’s a good candidate for one last big season, Joey Galloway style, as the clear #1 target in Pittsburgh. He’ll be missing Ben for 4-6 games, but even so, he’s a lock for 80 receptions and could easily be over 100. He finished as the #14 WR last year in this format, and here he’s the #19 WR off the board. He should easily outperform that ranking.
Following Ward on my draft list was Philip Rivers. I am exceedingly glad I didn’t have to take a QB this early in this format.
I’ve locked up the #1 WR corps in the league; it’s pretty clear I have to start taking other positions now. There are still a lot of RBs out there, so it’s likely I’ll wind up with one at my next pick. For homerism and upside potential, I’m hoping I’ll still have a shot at Jahvid Best.
5.10 Ronnie Brown (RB MIA)
My entire pre-draft list got taken out in the few picks before mine (Best, Addai, McCoy in that order), so I had to reevaluate whether I wanted to take a RB. Ronnie Brown has enough potential to make it worth it. The only question is how many games he plays; he will likely be in the top 10 in points per game for RBs. The only question is whether that’s 16 games, 12, or 4.
For my next pick, I’ll probably be looking at RB again, or else at Jeremy Shockey if he’s still around. WRs are pretty equivalent at this point, and enough QBs have been knocked off that their value has dissipated.
6.07 Jeremy Shockey (TE NO)
I had three guys on my pre-draft list, and two of them (Moreno and Jacobs) were taken out in the two picks before me. Fortunately I had Shockey as tops on my list. He’s the last of the good TEs on the board; the gap down to the next TE is 40 points in the projections. The projections haven’t been adjusted yet for his training camp injury, but still, he should put up a lot more points than Bo Scaife or Anthony Fasano. It feels like the difference between Shockey and Moreno (#1 and #2 on my board at that point) could easily be 100+ points; they’re both high risk, high reward players. Hope I wound up with the right one.
TE value is now dead for at least two rounds, and I’m pretty set at WR, so I’ll likely be going RB next round unless something weird happens. I’m interested in Cadillac Williams and Clinton Portis.
7.10 Cadillac Williams (RB TB)
My third clear-starter-with-injury-risk in a row. A healthy Williams playing 16 games would be an absolute steal down here; he finished as RB29 playing hobbled last year, and here he’s the #31 RB off the board. The question is whether he’ll be healthy, hobbled, or just out. At RB #31, you’re not going to get a potential stud with no injury questions, so I’m happy with the pick. Second round in a row, my #2 and #3 picks got knocked off (R.Bush and Bradshaw), leaving me with my top choice (after Portis, who went a good bit earlier).
Next round, I’m probably looking for another RB, or possibly one of the more interesting WRs. Right now Gaffney is at the top of the DD board, but I don’t believe in him (despite almost the entire FBG staff thinking he’s undervalued). This is the guy’s ninth year in the league and he has yet to finish in the top 50 WRs. I might go WR if Cotchery is still available; my top RB target is probably Laurence Maroney, who seemed to get entrenched as the starter in New England as the season went on. Maroney looks like the last of the real starters.
8.07 Laurence Maroney (RB NE)
I think Maroney’s being overlooked. He’s still the clear starter on a team that should have scoring opportunities. His second-half split last year, once he worked his way back into good graces, was 114/412/6 rushing, 8/63 receiving, and that leaves out his best game of the season. I’ll take 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs at this point of the draft.
I’m up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE. I’m resolved to not take a QB or D until the last four rounds, and Ks haven’t started coming up yet; I’ll be flexible on my next pick and take the best value. RB, I could take a shot at one of the Houston backs, or Buckhalter, Leon Washington, or McFadden. WR could be Massaquoi or Avery (or Eddie Royal if he’s still around). At TE I might look at Ben Watson, but he’ll probably still be there a round or two later.
9.10 Donnie Avery (WR STL)
My general rule is that scrub WRs are more likely to score well than scrub RBs in this format; at this point in the draft, a WR getting even 50 receptions is going to outscore anything an RB is likely to put up. So, I’m expecting that I’m going to wind up with 4 RBs and 6 WRs; this pick gives me 3 RB and 5 WR. Avery seems like a talented player and the team’s clear #1; STL is not likely to be a passing juggernaut, but even with medicore production this could be a good pick. And hey, if Sam Bradford turns out to be any good, Avery could be on target for a top-20 WR finish.
I still need another TE, and of what’s remaining I much prefer Ben Watson to the rest of the dreck out there; I’ll grab him if he’s there next.
10.07 Ben Watson (TE CLE)
Ben Watson is clearly the most physically talented of the remaining TEs. He’s also on an offense which lacks a decent WR. Delhomme sucks, but Cleveland will be needing to throw the ball, and someone’s got to catch it. 50 receptions, which I think is plausible, would be huge TE value down here.
I need one more RB and a flex. I’d also like to get Ryan Longwell at K. If Ks haven’t started to go off the board by my next pick, I’ll probably wind up with a RB, possible the anti-homer pick of Leon Washington.
11.10 Leon Washington (RB SEA)
I’d like to be wrong, but I’ve never been particularly impressed with Justin Forsett’s talent. I think he’s a hard worker and a solid player, but nothing special as a runner. So I’m expecting Washington to get a lot of touches in Seattle. He may not be given a full starter’s load, even if he works his way into the starting lineup, but if he gets to 150 carries and 40 receptions he’ll be good RB value at this level.
This pick fills up my required skill-position players (except for QB which I’m leaving for later). For my next pick, I’ll very likely either wind up with a WR or Ryan Longwell. Interesting WRs are James Jones, Chaz Schilens, and Josh Morgan. Or DHB as a flier? I haven’t looked at players this crappy yet, I’ll need to do some research.
12.06 Chaz Schilens (WR OAK)
I debated over Chaz or DHB here; also thought about Josh Morgan and Chris Chambers. I decided to go with one of the Raiders because one of them is going to be the WR1, and thus have a lot more upside than the other players remaining. I decided to go with Chaz because he’s simply more talented, despite all the noise coming out of camp about how well DHB is doing. It’ll come down to whether his foot is healthy by the time the season starts; if it is, he should be a lock for 60+ receptions and 800+ yards.
I predrafted for this round as I was heading to bed; if I had seen two kickers go off in the picks before mine, I probably would have gone PK here and hoped Chaz was still around at 13.10 (decent bet). Now I’m pretty unlikely to be able to nab Longwell at my next pick. If I can’t get him, I’ll probably grab a QB at my next tern, likely Cassel if he’s still around. My picks are fully constrained at this point: two QBs, two PKs, and two Ds.
13.10 Carolina Panthers TMQB (Matt Moore, QB CAR)
With my first-choice PK already gone, there’s no real need to compete for the rest. I would have liked to nab Cassell, but Fiddles grabbed him at the turn; of the remaining TMQBs, I like Carolina by far the best. Moore performed impressively in games 12-16 last year, and against good competition--NE, MIN, NYG, and NOR (though NO was resting starters). Had two 3-TD games against teams in the playoff hunt. The guy has Steve Smith to throw to, why is he going as the #28 QB?
The rest of the TMQBs, I don’t see much differentiation between, so I’ll probably go PK at my next two picks. My goal with PK is to make sure I have two guys who are 90% certain to start all year long; it doesn’t really matter who they are. Once we get to the dregs of the PKs, it can be hard to count on any production due to competitive situations, but anyone who starts all year is close to interchangeable.
14.07 Sebastian Janikowski (PK OAK)
He’s a good kicker who’ll have the job all year. Whether or not Oakland scores a lot of points, Seabass will at least be middle-of-the-pack at PK, which is all you need.
Probably looking for another PK at my next pick, before the kickers get really marginal.
15.10 Olindo Mare (PK MIA)
See 14.07.
Now I need a QB and two Ds. My research showed that last-round Ds perform better than last-round TMQBs, so I’m going with a QB at 16.07. I don’t really care who it is, as long as he’s not from Stanford.
16.07 St. Louis Rams TMQB (Sam Bradford, QB STL)
Of the three QBs left, I think St. Louis has the best weapons, plus I get to double up with Avery.
Now, two defenses. Fortunately there are two left with Cal players! (Detroit and Clevelend). They’ll be my first choices.
17.10 Detroit DST
Hey, I wound up with a token Cal player; Zack Follett at OLB. Actually I think this defense is significantly underrated down here after the addition of a boy named Suh. They sucked last year but will not suck nearly as badly this year; a middling performance would be good value here.
I’m targeting Cleveland D for my last pick.
18.07 Cleveland DST
Another token Cal player! (Scott Fuijita). Cleveland’s D will probably still suck, but it’ll be better than #31 where it’s being taken now.
Overall impressions:
I didn’t like drafting mid-round in a league this big. It felt like I had little control, and could only anticipate one outcome: “yeah, the guy I want will be gone by my next pick.” Because of that, I did more reaching down the draft board than I usually do, to get someone who might have lower projections but whose prospects I preferred to the top candidate. Because of that, I’m a bit lower in the overall rankings than I normally wind up; I’m in the second tier behind Just Win Baby and radballs, grouped with Fiddles, Anarchy, There It Is and Duckboy.
I have serious WR power, #1 in the league by a long way. Five clear #1 WRs and a likely #1 in Schilens. My RBs wound up in the middle of the pack, TE below average, and QB near the bottom by projections (although likely to finish better than that due to regression factors pointed out above). To win, I’ll need Matt Moore and/or Sam Bradford to perform in the middle of the pack, get top-20 RB seasons from R.Brown, Maroney, and C.Williams, and have my TEs outperform their draft spots (which is mostly a question of health). Chaz Schilens playing 16 games would be icing on the cake.
Good luck, all!
Other than that, a static roster league like this is mostly about finding value and selecting the right players. I’m definitely behind on my player evaluation, so this draft will give me a chance to catch up. I started with the base FBG projections and I’ll tweak them a bit as I see things I think are out of whack.
I don’t like the 10 spot much; it’s a good ways down in the first round, and not close enough to the turn to have much of an effect on the way the draft goes. But we’ll see how it goes.
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald (WR ARI)
In previous years I would have gone for Gonzo here, but even as a Cal homer I can’t really justify it with Fitzgerald still on the board. Fitz only fell this far because he lost Warner, but even with Leinart at QB you’re looking at one of the top two or three WRs in the league in a situation where he’s likely to get 150 targets. The overall Cardinals offense is going to take a hit this year, but Fitz should still be studly.
Plus, there’s a decent chance I’ll be able to get Gonzo at my second pick; the QB-picking chumps are getting going, and this year we might see Witten, Davis, and Finley go before Gonzo.
2.07 Desean Jackson (WR PHI) [Go Bears!]
Hook snagged Gonzo a few picks earlier, which left me with a choice of WRs. RB value is for crap, and the dropoff from Gonzo/Davis to Celek and the rest of the TE crew is pretty drastic. The top WR on my board was R.White, taken just before me by radballs, which left me feeling fine about taking Jackson, who was actually second on my board after White. I do have Jackson projected a little ahead of Dodds, but with completely plausible numbers (70/1100/8).
The other two contenders here were Colston and Jennings, who will probably go within the next five picks or so. By the time it comes back around to me, I’m pretty sure I won’t be excited about anyone on the board; the one guy I’m hoping to land is Ochocinco. After that it’s all damaged goods.
3.10 Steve Smith (WR NYG)
Just Win Baby snaked Ochocinco two picks before mine, which dropped me down into my next tier of players (those I’m not very excited about). Our drafting has been pretty good to this point, with value being taken about equally from all positions; here I considered Owen Daniels, Ryan Grant, and even Philip Rivers, who all offered similar value. But in the end it looked most promising to take the “best of the rest” WR, which I judged as “the other” Steve Smith (over Hines Ward and Hakeem Nicks). With PPR I think Smith is a more reliable choice than either of the others; Nicks might score more points in non-PPR, but Smith should get more targets and more receptions. Ward’s QB situation knocks him down or I might have gone that way.
Now we’re looking at a big glut of more-or-less-equivalent RBs, who will probably start going off the board soon. I’m expecting my next pick will be RB; perhaps Chris Wells or Pierre Thomas.
4.07 Hines Ward (WR PIT)
radballs snaked Chris Wells the pick before me; he was at the top of my draft board, but I had Hines Ward second, since I’d been considering him at 3.10 anyway. With Holmes gone, it seems a lock that Ward will get a ton of targets, and he’s showed no signs of slowing down. I really think he’s a good candidate for one last big season, Joey Galloway style, as the clear #1 target in Pittsburgh. He’ll be missing Ben for 4-6 games, but even so, he’s a lock for 80 receptions and could easily be over 100. He finished as the #14 WR last year in this format, and here he’s the #19 WR off the board. He should easily outperform that ranking.
Following Ward on my draft list was Philip Rivers. I am exceedingly glad I didn’t have to take a QB this early in this format.
I’ve locked up the #1 WR corps in the league; it’s pretty clear I have to start taking other positions now. There are still a lot of RBs out there, so it’s likely I’ll wind up with one at my next pick. For homerism and upside potential, I’m hoping I’ll still have a shot at Jahvid Best.
5.10 Ronnie Brown (RB MIA)
My entire pre-draft list got taken out in the few picks before mine (Best, Addai, McCoy in that order), so I had to reevaluate whether I wanted to take a RB. Ronnie Brown has enough potential to make it worth it. The only question is how many games he plays; he will likely be in the top 10 in points per game for RBs. The only question is whether that’s 16 games, 12, or 4.
For my next pick, I’ll probably be looking at RB again, or else at Jeremy Shockey if he’s still around. WRs are pretty equivalent at this point, and enough QBs have been knocked off that their value has dissipated.
6.07 Jeremy Shockey (TE NO)
I had three guys on my pre-draft list, and two of them (Moreno and Jacobs) were taken out in the two picks before me. Fortunately I had Shockey as tops on my list. He’s the last of the good TEs on the board; the gap down to the next TE is 40 points in the projections. The projections haven’t been adjusted yet for his training camp injury, but still, he should put up a lot more points than Bo Scaife or Anthony Fasano. It feels like the difference between Shockey and Moreno (#1 and #2 on my board at that point) could easily be 100+ points; they’re both high risk, high reward players. Hope I wound up with the right one.
TE value is now dead for at least two rounds, and I’m pretty set at WR, so I’ll likely be going RB next round unless something weird happens. I’m interested in Cadillac Williams and Clinton Portis.
7.10 Cadillac Williams (RB TB)
My third clear-starter-with-injury-risk in a row. A healthy Williams playing 16 games would be an absolute steal down here; he finished as RB29 playing hobbled last year, and here he’s the #31 RB off the board. The question is whether he’ll be healthy, hobbled, or just out. At RB #31, you’re not going to get a potential stud with no injury questions, so I’m happy with the pick. Second round in a row, my #2 and #3 picks got knocked off (R.Bush and Bradshaw), leaving me with my top choice (after Portis, who went a good bit earlier).
Next round, I’m probably looking for another RB, or possibly one of the more interesting WRs. Right now Gaffney is at the top of the DD board, but I don’t believe in him (despite almost the entire FBG staff thinking he’s undervalued). This is the guy’s ninth year in the league and he has yet to finish in the top 50 WRs. I might go WR if Cotchery is still available; my top RB target is probably Laurence Maroney, who seemed to get entrenched as the starter in New England as the season went on. Maroney looks like the last of the real starters.
8.07 Laurence Maroney (RB NE)
I think Maroney’s being overlooked. He’s still the clear starter on a team that should have scoring opportunities. His second-half split last year, once he worked his way back into good graces, was 114/412/6 rushing, 8/63 receiving, and that leaves out his best game of the season. I’ll take 1000 yards and 8-10 TDs at this point of the draft.
I’m up to 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE. I’m resolved to not take a QB or D until the last four rounds, and Ks haven’t started coming up yet; I’ll be flexible on my next pick and take the best value. RB, I could take a shot at one of the Houston backs, or Buckhalter, Leon Washington, or McFadden. WR could be Massaquoi or Avery (or Eddie Royal if he’s still around). At TE I might look at Ben Watson, but he’ll probably still be there a round or two later.
9.10 Donnie Avery (WR STL)
My general rule is that scrub WRs are more likely to score well than scrub RBs in this format; at this point in the draft, a WR getting even 50 receptions is going to outscore anything an RB is likely to put up. So, I’m expecting that I’m going to wind up with 4 RBs and 6 WRs; this pick gives me 3 RB and 5 WR. Avery seems like a talented player and the team’s clear #1; STL is not likely to be a passing juggernaut, but even with medicore production this could be a good pick. And hey, if Sam Bradford turns out to be any good, Avery could be on target for a top-20 WR finish.
I still need another TE, and of what’s remaining I much prefer Ben Watson to the rest of the dreck out there; I’ll grab him if he’s there next.
10.07 Ben Watson (TE CLE)
Ben Watson is clearly the most physically talented of the remaining TEs. He’s also on an offense which lacks a decent WR. Delhomme sucks, but Cleveland will be needing to throw the ball, and someone’s got to catch it. 50 receptions, which I think is plausible, would be huge TE value down here.
I need one more RB and a flex. I’d also like to get Ryan Longwell at K. If Ks haven’t started to go off the board by my next pick, I’ll probably wind up with a RB, possible the anti-homer pick of Leon Washington.
11.10 Leon Washington (RB SEA)
I’d like to be wrong, but I’ve never been particularly impressed with Justin Forsett’s talent. I think he’s a hard worker and a solid player, but nothing special as a runner. So I’m expecting Washington to get a lot of touches in Seattle. He may not be given a full starter’s load, even if he works his way into the starting lineup, but if he gets to 150 carries and 40 receptions he’ll be good RB value at this level.
This pick fills up my required skill-position players (except for QB which I’m leaving for later). For my next pick, I’ll very likely either wind up with a WR or Ryan Longwell. Interesting WRs are James Jones, Chaz Schilens, and Josh Morgan. Or DHB as a flier? I haven’t looked at players this crappy yet, I’ll need to do some research.
12.06 Chaz Schilens (WR OAK)
I debated over Chaz or DHB here; also thought about Josh Morgan and Chris Chambers. I decided to go with one of the Raiders because one of them is going to be the WR1, and thus have a lot more upside than the other players remaining. I decided to go with Chaz because he’s simply more talented, despite all the noise coming out of camp about how well DHB is doing. It’ll come down to whether his foot is healthy by the time the season starts; if it is, he should be a lock for 60+ receptions and 800+ yards.
I predrafted for this round as I was heading to bed; if I had seen two kickers go off in the picks before mine, I probably would have gone PK here and hoped Chaz was still around at 13.10 (decent bet). Now I’m pretty unlikely to be able to nab Longwell at my next pick. If I can’t get him, I’ll probably grab a QB at my next tern, likely Cassel if he’s still around. My picks are fully constrained at this point: two QBs, two PKs, and two Ds.
13.10 Carolina Panthers TMQB (Matt Moore, QB CAR)
With my first-choice PK already gone, there’s no real need to compete for the rest. I would have liked to nab Cassell, but Fiddles grabbed him at the turn; of the remaining TMQBs, I like Carolina by far the best. Moore performed impressively in games 12-16 last year, and against good competition--NE, MIN, NYG, and NOR (though NO was resting starters). Had two 3-TD games against teams in the playoff hunt. The guy has Steve Smith to throw to, why is he going as the #28 QB?
The rest of the TMQBs, I don’t see much differentiation between, so I’ll probably go PK at my next two picks. My goal with PK is to make sure I have two guys who are 90% certain to start all year long; it doesn’t really matter who they are. Once we get to the dregs of the PKs, it can be hard to count on any production due to competitive situations, but anyone who starts all year is close to interchangeable.
14.07 Sebastian Janikowski (PK OAK)
He’s a good kicker who’ll have the job all year. Whether or not Oakland scores a lot of points, Seabass will at least be middle-of-the-pack at PK, which is all you need.
Probably looking for another PK at my next pick, before the kickers get really marginal.
15.10 Olindo Mare (PK MIA)
See 14.07.
Now I need a QB and two Ds. My research showed that last-round Ds perform better than last-round TMQBs, so I’m going with a QB at 16.07. I don’t really care who it is, as long as he’s not from Stanford.
16.07 St. Louis Rams TMQB (Sam Bradford, QB STL)
Of the three QBs left, I think St. Louis has the best weapons, plus I get to double up with Avery.
Now, two defenses. Fortunately there are two left with Cal players! (Detroit and Clevelend). They’ll be my first choices.
17.10 Detroit DST
Hey, I wound up with a token Cal player; Zack Follett at OLB. Actually I think this defense is significantly underrated down here after the addition of a boy named Suh. They sucked last year but will not suck nearly as badly this year; a middling performance would be good value here.
I’m targeting Cleveland D for my last pick.
18.07 Cleveland DST
Another token Cal player! (Scott Fuijita). Cleveland’s D will probably still suck, but it’ll be better than #31 where it’s being taken now.
Overall impressions:
I didn’t like drafting mid-round in a league this big. It felt like I had little control, and could only anticipate one outcome: “yeah, the guy I want will be gone by my next pick.” Because of that, I did more reaching down the draft board than I usually do, to get someone who might have lower projections but whose prospects I preferred to the top candidate. Because of that, I’m a bit lower in the overall rankings than I normally wind up; I’m in the second tier behind Just Win Baby and radballs, grouped with Fiddles, Anarchy, There It Is and Duckboy.
I have serious WR power, #1 in the league by a long way. Five clear #1 WRs and a likely #1 in Schilens. My RBs wound up in the middle of the pack, TE below average, and QB near the bottom by projections (although likely to finish better than that due to regression factors pointed out above). To win, I’ll need Matt Moore and/or Sam Bradford to perform in the middle of the pack, get top-20 RB seasons from R.Brown, Maroney, and C.Williams, and have my TEs outperform their draft spots (which is mostly a question of health). Chaz Schilens playing 16 games would be icing on the cake.
Good luck, all!
Tau837
Footballguy
I think this team is better than middle of the road and could contend if things fall right.With regard to Graham, there have been reports that Marquez Branson will replace Scheffler as Denver's pass-catching TE. McDaniels has been quoted on that. Of course, players still have to perform, and Branson is unproven, so that certainly may not be how it works out. Still, you got him as the 36th TE drafted, so he could easily be good value there even if that turns out to be true. Graham was TE33 in this format last year, so that would presumably be his floor barring injury, with good upside from there.
Tau837
Footballguy
My review of my own draft and team:
1.8 - Antonio Gates, TE, SD. I entered the draft assuming Johnson and Peterson would be gone before this pick and thus hoping for a top TE here. In this format, IMO it is ideal to secure two top TEs if at all possible, and I felt my draft position would make it the best strategy. I was somewhat surprised (but happy) to see 5 RBs drafted in the first 7 picks, enabling Gates to fall to me. I had him as the #1 TE on my board and would have taken him as early as 1.3. He finished as TE2 last season in this format, and only two non Team QBs finished ahead of him last season. I expect the Chargers to make the playoffs, and I'm hoping for multiple playoff games. IMO he was a nobrainer pick here.
2.9 - Brent Celek, TE, PHI. With this pick I executed part 2 of my plan to secure two top TEs if the value was there. With 6 other TEs already gone, I felt there was a dropoff after Celek, and I figured a few more TEs would go before my 3.8 pick, so I felt I had to take him here. As it turned out, this was a good call, since 4 more TEs went during that stretch, and the expected dropoff materialized. Celek finished as TE5 last season in this format, and I see no reason why he can't perform similarly or better this year, so getting him as the 7th TE drafted was solid value. The Eagles made the playoffs last year, so playoff points are possible.
3.8 - Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN. As the 14th WR drafted, I thought Ocho was a low risk pick with a bit of upside. He finished as WR15 in this format last season, but I am hopeful the Bengals passing game can improve a bit this year; their 2890 passing yards last season was a huge dropoff from Palmer's previous full seasons. If it does improve, I think Ocho can improve a bit on last season's numbers and challenge for a top 10 finish; if it doesn't, I'm comfortable that Ocho has a high floor, so barring injury there seems to be little downside. I also expect the Bengals to make the playoffs, so he should provide playoff points.
4.9 - Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG. I really like Nicks, despite the fact that I'm not a big Eli fan, and I was happy to get him as the 20th WR drafted. I am expecting Nicks to build upon last season and finish in the top 15 if he and Eli stay healthy, making him a nice value here. I'm thinking he can assume the role Plax had with the Giants, but with a better Eli throwing to him (Plax averaged approximately 70/1100/10 in his three full seasons with the Giants.) It's possible he could get playoff points, but I'm not counting on it. I was glad Ward went before my pick, as he would have been tempting, despite my reservations about turmoil in the Steelers offense and Ward's age. I thought about Benson or Charles here, but thought Nicks would likely outscore them by a fair margin and thus was the better choice.
5.8 - Jahvid Best, RB, DET. I finally felt it was appropriate to take a RB. Somewhat surprisingly, there were still 5 teams at this point that had not taken a RB. I entered the draft with a vague notion that I might outlast all of the other teams in this regard, but I just did not see as much value at WR and/or TE at this point. I think Best has a reasonably high floor barring injury, and reasonable potential to outperform his draft position as the 22nd RB selected. Unfortunately, this is my first player drafted from whom I think there is no chance of playoff points.
6.9 - Santana Moss, WR, WAS. I was hoping for the Vikings Team QB here... thanks, Duckboy. I was then planning to take Shockey...thanks CalBear. That left Moss as the best value on the board IMO. I took him as the 30th WR drafted. Last year, he finished as WR34 in this format, but that was playing through the Jim Zorn implosion. Now he has McNabb at QB and Shanahan calling plays, and I think it is very possible he can replicate his 2008 performance, when he finished as WR21 in this format. Playoff points seem unlikely.
7.8 - Reggie Bush, RB, NO. Bush provides a nice value as the 32nd RB drafted. I felt there was a dropoff coming at RB, and IMO Bush stood out from among the remaining RBs . He finished as RB24 in this format last year. While he obviously got a nice boost from the Saints' run to the Super Bowl, he only played 17 total games; if he stays healthy he should play that many again this season, since it is likely the Saints will return to the playoffs. In 2008, he finished as RB39, but he missed 6 games... his ppg average was 17th among RBs. I just need him to stay healthy, and he should easily outperform his draft position.
8.9 - 49ers Team QB. There are a lot of reasons to expect improvement in the 49ers passing game this season. A full season of Crabtree should be a big help, and Smith will be in the same system for consecutive seasons for the first time. The schedule is also better - the Ultimate SOS article shows the 49ers QB schedule as being notably easier this year. Smith was effective when he took over last season; the 49ers Team QB scoring average projected from the last 11 games started by Smith to 16 games would have ranked 16th among Team QBs last season. And the division seems to be up for grabs; it's very possible the 49ers could win it and make the playoffs, which would be a nice potential points boost. Add it all up, and this was solid value as the 19th Team QB off the board. And, frankly, I wanted to avoid picking one of the bottom few Team QBs, so that meant I had to get my first one rostered to give myself a chance of avoiding the wrong end of a QB run.
9.8 - Darren Sproles, RB, SD. I took Sproles as the 42nd RB drafted. He was RB33 in this format last year and RB27 in 2008, so there seems to be a good chance he will return good value for this pick. And, as I said for Gates, I'm expecting playoff points and hoping for multiple Chargers playoff games, which is a boost. And if Matthews misses any time, there could be major upside for him on top of that.
10.9 - Jaguars Team QB. As the 25th Team QB off the board, this pick offers good upside. Last year, the Jaguars Team QB was QB17 in this format, and it was QB18 in 2008. Many get a good laugh at the FBG man love for Garrard, but there is a basis for it, and I'm surprised that they were available here. I considered taking them at both of my last two picks. I definitely am not expecting playoff points here, but that was pretty much the case with all of the remaining Team QBs. With this pick, I avoid the possibility of getting stuck at the end of a big dropoff in QB points - last year, there was a 60 point dropoff from QB25 to QB32 and a 110 point dropoff from the Jaguars Team QB to QB32. These dropoffs are much bigger than the expected dropoffs at RB, WR, and TE at this point, and I wasn't interested in defense or kickers yet.
11.8 - 49ers D/ST. It looked like a semi-run on defenses had started, so I wanted to make sure I got a good one. I took the 49ers as the 10th defense off the board. It finished 7th in this format last year, in Singletary's first full season as head coach. In addition, that was without making the playoffs, which is a possibility this year. And the schedule is easier this year. Altogether, this should turn out to be a good value pick. And, like Team QBs, I wanted to avoid picking one of the bottom few D/STs, so that meant I had to get my first one rostered to give myself a chance of avoiding the wrong end of a run.
12.9 - Mason Crosby, K, GB. I took Crosby as the 3rd kicker drafted, and that is exactly where he finished last year. I think kickers tend to be a bit underrated in this format, and I tend to take mine a bit earlier than most. Every year, at least a couple of owners get stuck with kickers that end up without a starting job, and I think it is critical to avoid that. Also, there is more of a spread at the position than some realize. For example, last season Crosby scored 160 points in this format, and K24 scored 101 points. At this stage of the draft, that is a big dropoff, and that is only to K24, not K32. My plan was to draft two top 10 kickers on likely playoff teams, if possible. Getting Crosby was part 1 of that plan.
13.8 - Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN. I took Berrian as the 64th WR drafted, and I was surprised he was still available given that he finished as WR37 in this format last year, despite playing through injuries much of the time. I assume part of the reason he was available is related to uncertainty over whether or not Favre will play. I think he will. Also, Rice has a lingering hip injury that could serve to increase Berrian's opportunities this year. and the Vikings are very likely to make the playoffs. All in all, this was outstanding value IMO.
14.9 - Shayne Graham, K, BAL. Technically, Graham is in a camp battle with Billy Cundiff, so there is some risk with this pick (see 12.9). However, I expect Graham to win, which will give me a second kicker on a likely playoff team. And it should also represent good value - last year, Cundiff and Hauschka combined for 165 points in this format, which would have been enough to rank as K2. FWIW, FBG (Herman) has Graham winning the job and ranking as K10.
15.8 - Dolphins D/ST. I took the Dolphins as the 21st D/ST off the board, and they finished just 25th in this format last year. However, they added Dansby and Charles Grant in the offseason and should be improved. They also play an easier schedule and could make the playoffs and thus get some bonus points. I'm reasonably optimistic they will outperform this draft position, and this ensured I wouldn't get stuck with one of the worst defenses. Even at #25 last season, Miami outperformed the bottom few defenses by 35+ points.
16.9 - Lynell Hamilton, RB, NO. Things were apparently going too well. At this point, I was really pleased with my draft thus far and felt I had the best team. And I was really pleased to draft Hamilton here, as the 60th RB drafted. I figured he would fill Mike Bell's role from last season, and he had finished as RB42 last year. He also had some upside in the event that Thomas misses any time, and gave me a measure of protection should Bush get hurt. And I expected playoff points. Literally 10 minutes after I drafted him, I learned he had torn his ACL earlier that morning. This is a loss of 60+ points for my team, and definitely brings me back to the pack somewhat.
17.8 - Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR. LaFell has been getting good reviews in camp and is looking like a likely starter this year. Last year, Muhammad was WR65 in this format, despite missing 2 games and playing in an offense with mostly awful QB play. The QB play should be better this year, and there is no reason that LaFell cannot match or surpass what Muhammad was able to do last year at age 36. That would make him a very good value as the 86th WR drafted. No playoff points here.
18.9 - Daniel Fells, TE, STL. There didn't seem to be as much value at RB, WR, and/or TE as I remembered at this point of the previous year drafts. I took Fells as the 35th TE drafted, and he finished 36th last year in this format, scoring 87.3 points. To put that in perspective, he only had to get 21/273/3 to score those points, so as the expected Rams starter, there is no reason to think he cannot duplicate or exceed those numbers this year. Getting 80+ points in the lineup at this point (for those not drafting Team QB or D/ST) is solid, and that's what I am expecting. No playoff points here.
This is my 5th year doing this. I've finished 6th, 2nd, 6th, and 10th, so my trend isn't good, and I haven't exactly mastered the format. That said, I think I ended up with a contender, and possibly the best team. I think I got good value at all of my picks except the Hamilton pick, and I should have several playoff performers. Obviously, further injuries could derail this team, and I need Graham to beat out Cundiff for the Ravens kicking job. Still, I think this team has fewer questions than most.
Interested in any feedback/criticism on my draft.
1.8 - Antonio Gates, TE, SD. I entered the draft assuming Johnson and Peterson would be gone before this pick and thus hoping for a top TE here. In this format, IMO it is ideal to secure two top TEs if at all possible, and I felt my draft position would make it the best strategy. I was somewhat surprised (but happy) to see 5 RBs drafted in the first 7 picks, enabling Gates to fall to me. I had him as the #1 TE on my board and would have taken him as early as 1.3. He finished as TE2 last season in this format, and only two non Team QBs finished ahead of him last season. I expect the Chargers to make the playoffs, and I'm hoping for multiple playoff games. IMO he was a nobrainer pick here.
2.9 - Brent Celek, TE, PHI. With this pick I executed part 2 of my plan to secure two top TEs if the value was there. With 6 other TEs already gone, I felt there was a dropoff after Celek, and I figured a few more TEs would go before my 3.8 pick, so I felt I had to take him here. As it turned out, this was a good call, since 4 more TEs went during that stretch, and the expected dropoff materialized. Celek finished as TE5 last season in this format, and I see no reason why he can't perform similarly or better this year, so getting him as the 7th TE drafted was solid value. The Eagles made the playoffs last year, so playoff points are possible.
3.8 - Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN. As the 14th WR drafted, I thought Ocho was a low risk pick with a bit of upside. He finished as WR15 in this format last season, but I am hopeful the Bengals passing game can improve a bit this year; their 2890 passing yards last season was a huge dropoff from Palmer's previous full seasons. If it does improve, I think Ocho can improve a bit on last season's numbers and challenge for a top 10 finish; if it doesn't, I'm comfortable that Ocho has a high floor, so barring injury there seems to be little downside. I also expect the Bengals to make the playoffs, so he should provide playoff points.
4.9 - Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG. I really like Nicks, despite the fact that I'm not a big Eli fan, and I was happy to get him as the 20th WR drafted. I am expecting Nicks to build upon last season and finish in the top 15 if he and Eli stay healthy, making him a nice value here. I'm thinking he can assume the role Plax had with the Giants, but with a better Eli throwing to him (Plax averaged approximately 70/1100/10 in his three full seasons with the Giants.) It's possible he could get playoff points, but I'm not counting on it. I was glad Ward went before my pick, as he would have been tempting, despite my reservations about turmoil in the Steelers offense and Ward's age. I thought about Benson or Charles here, but thought Nicks would likely outscore them by a fair margin and thus was the better choice.
5.8 - Jahvid Best, RB, DET. I finally felt it was appropriate to take a RB. Somewhat surprisingly, there were still 5 teams at this point that had not taken a RB. I entered the draft with a vague notion that I might outlast all of the other teams in this regard, but I just did not see as much value at WR and/or TE at this point. I think Best has a reasonably high floor barring injury, and reasonable potential to outperform his draft position as the 22nd RB selected. Unfortunately, this is my first player drafted from whom I think there is no chance of playoff points.
6.9 - Santana Moss, WR, WAS. I was hoping for the Vikings Team QB here... thanks, Duckboy. I was then planning to take Shockey...thanks CalBear. That left Moss as the best value on the board IMO. I took him as the 30th WR drafted. Last year, he finished as WR34 in this format, but that was playing through the Jim Zorn implosion. Now he has McNabb at QB and Shanahan calling plays, and I think it is very possible he can replicate his 2008 performance, when he finished as WR21 in this format. Playoff points seem unlikely.
7.8 - Reggie Bush, RB, NO. Bush provides a nice value as the 32nd RB drafted. I felt there was a dropoff coming at RB, and IMO Bush stood out from among the remaining RBs . He finished as RB24 in this format last year. While he obviously got a nice boost from the Saints' run to the Super Bowl, he only played 17 total games; if he stays healthy he should play that many again this season, since it is likely the Saints will return to the playoffs. In 2008, he finished as RB39, but he missed 6 games... his ppg average was 17th among RBs. I just need him to stay healthy, and he should easily outperform his draft position.
8.9 - 49ers Team QB. There are a lot of reasons to expect improvement in the 49ers passing game this season. A full season of Crabtree should be a big help, and Smith will be in the same system for consecutive seasons for the first time. The schedule is also better - the Ultimate SOS article shows the 49ers QB schedule as being notably easier this year. Smith was effective when he took over last season; the 49ers Team QB scoring average projected from the last 11 games started by Smith to 16 games would have ranked 16th among Team QBs last season. And the division seems to be up for grabs; it's very possible the 49ers could win it and make the playoffs, which would be a nice potential points boost. Add it all up, and this was solid value as the 19th Team QB off the board. And, frankly, I wanted to avoid picking one of the bottom few Team QBs, so that meant I had to get my first one rostered to give myself a chance of avoiding the wrong end of a QB run.
9.8 - Darren Sproles, RB, SD. I took Sproles as the 42nd RB drafted. He was RB33 in this format last year and RB27 in 2008, so there seems to be a good chance he will return good value for this pick. And, as I said for Gates, I'm expecting playoff points and hoping for multiple Chargers playoff games, which is a boost. And if Matthews misses any time, there could be major upside for him on top of that.
10.9 - Jaguars Team QB. As the 25th Team QB off the board, this pick offers good upside. Last year, the Jaguars Team QB was QB17 in this format, and it was QB18 in 2008. Many get a good laugh at the FBG man love for Garrard, but there is a basis for it, and I'm surprised that they were available here. I considered taking them at both of my last two picks. I definitely am not expecting playoff points here, but that was pretty much the case with all of the remaining Team QBs. With this pick, I avoid the possibility of getting stuck at the end of a big dropoff in QB points - last year, there was a 60 point dropoff from QB25 to QB32 and a 110 point dropoff from the Jaguars Team QB to QB32. These dropoffs are much bigger than the expected dropoffs at RB, WR, and TE at this point, and I wasn't interested in defense or kickers yet.
11.8 - 49ers D/ST. It looked like a semi-run on defenses had started, so I wanted to make sure I got a good one. I took the 49ers as the 10th defense off the board. It finished 7th in this format last year, in Singletary's first full season as head coach. In addition, that was without making the playoffs, which is a possibility this year. And the schedule is easier this year. Altogether, this should turn out to be a good value pick. And, like Team QBs, I wanted to avoid picking one of the bottom few D/STs, so that meant I had to get my first one rostered to give myself a chance of avoiding the wrong end of a run.
12.9 - Mason Crosby, K, GB. I took Crosby as the 3rd kicker drafted, and that is exactly where he finished last year. I think kickers tend to be a bit underrated in this format, and I tend to take mine a bit earlier than most. Every year, at least a couple of owners get stuck with kickers that end up without a starting job, and I think it is critical to avoid that. Also, there is more of a spread at the position than some realize. For example, last season Crosby scored 160 points in this format, and K24 scored 101 points. At this stage of the draft, that is a big dropoff, and that is only to K24, not K32. My plan was to draft two top 10 kickers on likely playoff teams, if possible. Getting Crosby was part 1 of that plan.
13.8 - Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN. I took Berrian as the 64th WR drafted, and I was surprised he was still available given that he finished as WR37 in this format last year, despite playing through injuries much of the time. I assume part of the reason he was available is related to uncertainty over whether or not Favre will play. I think he will. Also, Rice has a lingering hip injury that could serve to increase Berrian's opportunities this year. and the Vikings are very likely to make the playoffs. All in all, this was outstanding value IMO.
14.9 - Shayne Graham, K, BAL. Technically, Graham is in a camp battle with Billy Cundiff, so there is some risk with this pick (see 12.9). However, I expect Graham to win, which will give me a second kicker on a likely playoff team. And it should also represent good value - last year, Cundiff and Hauschka combined for 165 points in this format, which would have been enough to rank as K2. FWIW, FBG (Herman) has Graham winning the job and ranking as K10.
15.8 - Dolphins D/ST. I took the Dolphins as the 21st D/ST off the board, and they finished just 25th in this format last year. However, they added Dansby and Charles Grant in the offseason and should be improved. They also play an easier schedule and could make the playoffs and thus get some bonus points. I'm reasonably optimistic they will outperform this draft position, and this ensured I wouldn't get stuck with one of the worst defenses. Even at #25 last season, Miami outperformed the bottom few defenses by 35+ points.
16.9 - Lynell Hamilton, RB, NO. Things were apparently going too well. At this point, I was really pleased with my draft thus far and felt I had the best team. And I was really pleased to draft Hamilton here, as the 60th RB drafted. I figured he would fill Mike Bell's role from last season, and he had finished as RB42 last year. He also had some upside in the event that Thomas misses any time, and gave me a measure of protection should Bush get hurt. And I expected playoff points. Literally 10 minutes after I drafted him, I learned he had torn his ACL earlier that morning. This is a loss of 60+ points for my team, and definitely brings me back to the pack somewhat.
17.8 - Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR. LaFell has been getting good reviews in camp and is looking like a likely starter this year. Last year, Muhammad was WR65 in this format, despite missing 2 games and playing in an offense with mostly awful QB play. The QB play should be better this year, and there is no reason that LaFell cannot match or surpass what Muhammad was able to do last year at age 36. That would make him a very good value as the 86th WR drafted. No playoff points here.
18.9 - Daniel Fells, TE, STL. There didn't seem to be as much value at RB, WR, and/or TE as I remembered at this point of the previous year drafts. I took Fells as the 35th TE drafted, and he finished 36th last year in this format, scoring 87.3 points. To put that in perspective, he only had to get 21/273/3 to score those points, so as the expected Rams starter, there is no reason to think he cannot duplicate or exceed those numbers this year. Getting 80+ points in the lineup at this point (for those not drafting Team QB or D/ST) is solid, and that's what I am expecting. No playoff points here.
This is my 5th year doing this. I've finished 6th, 2nd, 6th, and 10th, so my trend isn't good, and I haven't exactly mastered the format. That said, I think I ended up with a contender, and possibly the best team. I think I got good value at all of my picks except the Hamilton pick, and I should have several playoff performers. Obviously, further injuries could derail this team, and I need Graham to beat out Cundiff for the Ravens kicking job. Still, I think this team has fewer questions than most.
Interested in any feedback/criticism on my draft.
Sinrman
Footballguy
Sinrman
Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB - 6 5.12
Saints, New Orleans NOS TMQB - 10 1.12
* Spent a high pick on the #1 or #2 overall QB. Guppie pick, maybe, but with huge points coming from Brees, I like my chances. Playoffs? Check. Palmer should really help too, and if
he can stay upright, the offensive additions should really vault him back into the top 10. Playoffs? Great possibility.
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB (P) - 8 6.05
Johnson, Larry WAS RB - 9 10.05
McFadden, Darren OAK RB (P) - 10 9.12
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB (Q) - 6 4.05
* Eh, with no PPR for RBs, I wasn't as worried about filling this position as in other drafts. I felt the need to fill other positions. Stewart should do well, and I was happy to take him at 4.05. If (big IF) Jacobs
can stay healthy, he should easily outproduce where he was picked. From what I'm reading so far, Johnson has a nice chance of possibly usurping Portis as the starter, and if so, or even if he ends up with
35-40% of the carries there (between him, Portis, and Parker, or others), then he easily outproduces the 10.05 pick. I loved McFadden in college, but as soon as he was picked by the Raiders, I knew he'd
be a waste. But I couldn't ignore him at 9.12.
Camarillo, Greg MIA WR - 5 18.05
Chambers, Chris KCC WR - 4 14.05
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR - 7 7.12
Henderson, Devery NOS WR (P) - 10 12.05
Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR (P) - 10 13.12
Marshall, Brandon MIA WR - 5 2.05
* Marshall should be big. The collection of other WRs brings a number of #2's and #3's that won't be real consistent for the most part, but should have some blowup games here and there. Several have
good chances of making the playoffs too.
Heap, Todd BAL TE - 8 8.05
Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE (P) - 4 3.12
* Not crazy about taking Shiancoe at 3.12. It really hinges on whether Favre comes back or not. If he does, then Shiancoe should be big. If he doesn't, I'm afraid he'll tumble. Heap should quietly produce,
especially valuable at 8.05.
Lindell, Rian BUF PK - 6 15.12
Scobee, Josh JAC PK - 9 17.12
Giants, New York NYG Def - 8 11.12
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def - 5 16.05
* Eh, they are kickers and DEF. I got two of each, and none of the kickers should be worried about losing their jobs, so they should produce. 'Nuff said.
Bengals, Cincinnati CIN TMQB - 6 5.12
Saints, New Orleans NOS TMQB - 10 1.12
* Spent a high pick on the #1 or #2 overall QB. Guppie pick, maybe, but with huge points coming from Brees, I like my chances. Playoffs? Check. Palmer should really help too, and if
he can stay upright, the offensive additions should really vault him back into the top 10. Playoffs? Great possibility.
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB (P) - 8 6.05
Johnson, Larry WAS RB - 9 10.05
McFadden, Darren OAK RB (P) - 10 9.12
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB (Q) - 6 4.05
* Eh, with no PPR for RBs, I wasn't as worried about filling this position as in other drafts. I felt the need to fill other positions. Stewart should do well, and I was happy to take him at 4.05. If (big IF) Jacobs
can stay healthy, he should easily outproduce where he was picked. From what I'm reading so far, Johnson has a nice chance of possibly usurping Portis as the starter, and if so, or even if he ends up with
35-40% of the carries there (between him, Portis, and Parker, or others), then he easily outproduces the 10.05 pick. I loved McFadden in college, but as soon as he was picked by the Raiders, I knew he'd
be a waste. But I couldn't ignore him at 9.12.
Camarillo, Greg MIA WR - 5 18.05
Chambers, Chris KCC WR - 4 14.05
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR - 7 7.12
Henderson, Devery NOS WR (P) - 10 12.05
Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR (P) - 10 13.12
Marshall, Brandon MIA WR - 5 2.05
* Marshall should be big. The collection of other WRs brings a number of #2's and #3's that won't be real consistent for the most part, but should have some blowup games here and there. Several have
good chances of making the playoffs too.
Heap, Todd BAL TE - 8 8.05
Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE (P) - 4 3.12
* Not crazy about taking Shiancoe at 3.12. It really hinges on whether Favre comes back or not. If he does, then Shiancoe should be big. If he doesn't, I'm afraid he'll tumble. Heap should quietly produce,
especially valuable at 8.05.
Lindell, Rian BUF PK - 6 15.12
Scobee, Josh JAC PK - 9 17.12
Giants, New York NYG Def - 8 11.12
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def - 5 16.05
* Eh, they are kickers and DEF. I got two of each, and none of the kickers should be worried about losing their jobs, so they should produce. 'Nuff said.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Great writeups so far guys. Reading Cal Bear's made me wish I had made some notes during the draft but frankly I am waist deep in baseball right now while trying to gear up for Vegas/WCOFF and get some other FF drafts in and this one is just too slow. BTW CB - I could have drafted a better team of my Bruins .......anyway here is my squad....if you think drafting from the ten hole is a #####, let me tell you the 14 hole is no picnic either.
Quarterbacks
Falcons 5.14
Steelers 6.03
Trying to find some value after the clearcut top QBs. With team QB I think the Steelers are very playable.
I think this combo should be middle of the pack but likely won't have many/any playoff games to cotribute
Running backs
Pierre Thomas 3.14
Felix Jones 4.03
Montario Hardesty 10.03
Mike Bell 15.14
I like this group and both Thomas and Felix should have some contributions after week 17
I think Mike Bell might be the most underrated running back in drafts so far this year - he should get a lot of short yardage and goal line work for the Iggles
Wide Receivers
Miles Austin 1.14
Jabbar Gaffney 7.14
Mohamad Massaquoi 9.14
Devin Aromashdu 11.14
Sammie Stroughter 17.14
+ (flex) Steve Johnson 18.03
I think this is really a nice group - especially given their draft positions. Austin was my late first round pick as I am really high not only on him continuing to be the main receiver for Dallas but also think the Cowboys can make a nice playoff run. Gaffney and Massaquoi should each get a lot of balls in their offenses and Aromashdu like most Bear receivers seem to be undervalued if that is a full blown Martz offense. Stroughter and Johnson were obviously my last two picks but guys I think will get more points than most think over the course of the year.
Tight Ends
Tony Gonzalez 2.03
Bo Scaife 8.03
Stud TE are gold in this format, so I was glad to get Gonzo and then waited - not intentionally, others kept picking off some guys I had queued, but he will contribute a hell of a lot more points than most TE2s
Kickers
Nate Kaeding 12.03
John Kasay 16.03
I think Kaeding and the Chargers will win the AFC West - they have a ridiculously easy schedule so I should get some playoff weeks from him. Kasay is an adequate second chair
Defensive Teams
Arizona Cardinals 13.14
Oakland Raiders 14.03
Maybe a tad earlier than some would like but there were tons of RB/WR/K to fill my later slots and you might well be able to duplicate this with any (okay, not the Rams or Broncos) other AFC West and NFC West team, but LOOK at those schedules!
Not a front runner, but something fun to watch during the year - GREAT to draft with you guys in this each year.
Quarterbacks
Falcons 5.14
Steelers 6.03
Trying to find some value after the clearcut top QBs. With team QB I think the Steelers are very playable.
I think this combo should be middle of the pack but likely won't have many/any playoff games to cotribute
Running backs
Pierre Thomas 3.14
Felix Jones 4.03
Montario Hardesty 10.03
Mike Bell 15.14
I like this group and both Thomas and Felix should have some contributions after week 17
I think Mike Bell might be the most underrated running back in drafts so far this year - he should get a lot of short yardage and goal line work for the Iggles
Wide Receivers
Miles Austin 1.14
Jabbar Gaffney 7.14
Mohamad Massaquoi 9.14
Devin Aromashdu 11.14
Sammie Stroughter 17.14
+ (flex) Steve Johnson 18.03
I think this is really a nice group - especially given their draft positions. Austin was my late first round pick as I am really high not only on him continuing to be the main receiver for Dallas but also think the Cowboys can make a nice playoff run. Gaffney and Massaquoi should each get a lot of balls in their offenses and Aromashdu like most Bear receivers seem to be undervalued if that is a full blown Martz offense. Stroughter and Johnson were obviously my last two picks but guys I think will get more points than most think over the course of the year.
Tight Ends
Tony Gonzalez 2.03
Bo Scaife 8.03
Stud TE are gold in this format, so I was glad to get Gonzo and then waited - not intentionally, others kept picking off some guys I had queued, but he will contribute a hell of a lot more points than most TE2s
Kickers
Nate Kaeding 12.03
John Kasay 16.03
I think Kaeding and the Chargers will win the AFC West - they have a ridiculously easy schedule so I should get some playoff weeks from him. Kasay is an adequate second chair
Defensive Teams
Arizona Cardinals 13.14
Oakland Raiders 14.03
Maybe a tad earlier than some would like but there were tons of RB/WR/K to fill my later slots and you might well be able to duplicate this with any (okay, not the Rams or Broncos) other AFC West and NFC West team, but LOOK
at those schedules!Not a front runner, but something fun to watch during the year - GREAT to draft with you guys in this each year.
Tau837
Footballguy
As I do every year, I'll post Draft Dominator's view of the teams periodically up until the season starts. Here is its current view of the teams, based on latest projections (updated this morning):
2966.9 Just Win Baby
2879.4 radballs
2807.6 Anarchy99
2768.2 Duckboy
2735.3 There It Is
2716.2 Fiddles
2692.4 Captain Hook
2680.7 CalBear
2667.7 Jiggyonthehut
2604.5 nittanylion
2577.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy
2576.1 Sinrman
2560.8 Bri
2541.7 rzrback77
2507.5 SLBD
2480.4 Old Milwaukee
Caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults. Obviously many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added 3 rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have 4-5 individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, but this has done a decent job in past years of assessing the results in Anarchy drafts.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format; but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
2966.9 Just Win Baby
2879.4 radballs
2807.6 Anarchy99
2768.2 Duckboy
2735.3 There It Is
2716.2 Fiddles
2692.4 Captain Hook
2680.7 CalBear
2667.7 Jiggyonthehut
2604.5 nittanylion
2577.5 Pimpin' Ain't Easy
2576.1 Sinrman
2560.8 Bri
2541.7 rzrback77
2507.5 SLBD
2480.4 Old Milwaukee
Caveats:
1. I made no attempt to change projections from the defaults. Obviously many people will have different projections and thus will feel differently than what is shown by these numbers.
2. DD does not factor in NFL playoff games, and thus those points are not accounted for.
3. We use Team QBs, so I added 3 rounds to the draft in order to add all backup QBs listed in DD. So all teams have 4-5 individual QBs. This seems to be the best way to represent Team QBs in DD. (I could have modified the projections by hand to give all of each team’s projected fantasy points to its starter, but that would have prevented updating projections without more manual conversions later.)
Despite the issues cited above, I think this is as good as any other quick view of the results. Injuries will obviously be the biggest factor, but this has done a decent job in past years of assessing the results in Anarchy drafts.
Of course, there are always those who will dismiss these results, and that's fine. I'm posting it just as a data point. Anyone who doesn't believe it is applicable or accurate is free to ignore it.
There are also those who will inevitably say that I (and possibly others near the top) must have drafted based on DD's recommendations, which is not the case for me. I probably made a few picks that were in agreement with DD's recommendations, but not more than that. IMO DD does not actually make great recommendations in this unusual format; but it is great as a draft tracker, as a tool to see what other teams have and need between your picks, and to see tiering of players by position. So I use it for those purposes in this league format.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting items based on DD's projections:
1. JWB (Hamilton) and radballs (Butler) each have only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, SLBD has 8 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish. However, it is interesting to note that Old Milwaukee has only 2 such players, but is still projected in last place.
2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value (I used 20 points as a cutoff):
Just Win Baby - Lynell Hamilton - 0 points
Old Milwaukee - Kris Brown - 0 points
Jiggyonthehut - Matt Bryant - 0 points
Fiddles - LaRod Stephens-Howling - 9.6 points
rzrback77 - Jimmy Graham - 11.4 points
Duckboy - P.J. Hill - 19 points
3. Not including the Team QB position, there are 6 teams that have only one player projected to score 200+ points:
nittanylion
Pimpin' Ain't Easy
Sinrman
Bri
SLBD
Old Milwaukee
All other teams have at least 2 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points. This partly explains why these teams are projected in 6 of the bottom 7 spots.
4. Meanwhile, JWB has 4 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points, which is the most.
5. Returning to this post:
1. JWB (Hamilton) and radballs (Butler) each have only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, SLBD has 8 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish. However, it is interesting to note that Old Milwaukee has only 2 such players, but is still projected in last place.
2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value (I used 20 points as a cutoff):
Just Win Baby - Lynell Hamilton - 0 points
Old Milwaukee - Kris Brown - 0 points
Jiggyonthehut - Matt Bryant - 0 points
Fiddles - LaRod Stephens-Howling - 9.6 points
rzrback77 - Jimmy Graham - 11.4 points
Duckboy - P.J. Hill - 19 points
3. Not including the Team QB position, there are 6 teams that have only one player projected to score 200+ points:
nittanylion
Pimpin' Ain't Easy
Sinrman
Bri
SLBD
Old Milwaukee
All other teams have at least 2 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points. This partly explains why these teams are projected in 6 of the bottom 7 spots.
4. Meanwhile, JWB has 4 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points, which is the most.
5. Returning to this post:
The highest projection of the teams that took 1st round Team QBs is 10th.Surprised at 4 1st round Team QBs.
Last year in League 2, 2 Team QBs were taken in the 1st round, by Bri and Pimpin'. They finished 12th and 13th, respectively.
In 2008 in League 2, 3 Team QBs were taken in the 1st round, by joffer, Anarchy99, and Pimpin'. They finished 12th, 13th, and 16th, respectively.
Small sample size, but this doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Now we have SLBD, Sinrman, nittanylion, and Pimpin' trying to buck the trend. Hey, at least Pimpin' is consistent.
Tau837
Footballguy
Notable undrafted players, based on DD projections:
[*]Sammy Morris is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.
[*]Arrelious Benn is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.
[*]Jared Cook is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 10 TEs who were drafted.
[*]No one took a kicker from Tampa or St. Louis. DD shows those players as Barth and Josh Brown, who are projected to score 99.2 and 88.8 points, respectively. Meanwhile Kris Brown and Bryant were drafted and are projected at 0 points.
[*]Sammy Morris is the highest projected undrafted RB, and is projected higher than 14 RBs who were drafted.
[*]Arrelious Benn is the highest projected undrafted WR, and is projected higher than 14 WRs who were drafted.
[*]Jared Cook is the highest projected undrafted TE, and is projected higher than 10 TEs who were drafted.
[*]No one took a kicker from Tampa or St. Louis. DD shows those players as Barth and Josh Brown, who are projected to score 99.2 and 88.8 points, respectively. Meanwhile Kris Brown and Bryant were drafted and are projected at 0 points.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Thanks for all this information - nobody can project everything (anything?) I did make some comments on the above playersThe one caveat I will add is that we have saying in fantasy baseball circles - (and you have to understand that player projections while far more accurate over 162 game season and with player AB and IP more consistent and yet still the best projections can hope to be on individual players is 80% correct) - if you are using a computerized drafting tool like DD and it doesn't show YOUR team in first or second place - YOU had a Terrible draft. It is just the nature of following the numbers in the computer (that said glad that you and Ollie are at the top - at least you have mastered using the program)
Tau837
Footballguy
With regard to the kickers, if Kris Brown and/or Bryant win a starting job, then it will be SLBD (Rackers) and/or Pimpin' (Hauschka) who have this problem. (And if Cundiff beats out Graham, I'll have this problem with Graham.)As for LaRod Stephens-Howling, he did have 19.9 points last season. If he repeats that performance, the projection is too low, but the overall point will still hold, since he won't really be a contributor. In order for you to be right here, he has to score MUCH more than 9.6 points, which I assume must mean 30+ points, and maybe a lot more. What do you base such a prediction on?
As for Jimmy Graham, he is behind both Shockey and David Thomas. and he scored 4.1 points last season. Sure, anything can happen, but this projection certainly doesn't seem unreasonable.
Agree P.J. Hill is somewhat unpredictable at this point. But would it be reasonable to project more points right now?
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Tau837
Footballguy
I guess you either missed these comments or chose to ignore them:
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Sinrman
Footballguy
Eh, not one of my strongest efforts, but if I recall the predictions last year, I was going to be like 13th or 14th and finished 8th, sooooo....I think there are too many variables involved to get a true, accurate reading through DD. Straight survivors, like MBSL, SSL, etc. it will be more accurate. But this one? Nah...Interesting items based on DD's projections:
1. JWB (Hamilton) and radballs (Butler) each have only one player projected to score fewer than 100 points. Every other team has at least 2. At the other extreme, SLBD has 8 such players. This presumably explains the disparity in where DD projects those teams to finish. However, it is interesting to note that Old Milwaukee has only 2 such players, but is still projected in last place.
2. DD currently projects these picks with little or no value (I used 20 points as a cutoff):
Just Win Baby - Lynell Hamilton - 0 points
Old Milwaukee - Kris Brown - 0 points
Jiggyonthehut - Matt Bryant - 0 points
Fiddles - LaRod Stephens-Howling - 9.6 points
rzrback77 - Jimmy Graham - 11.4 points
Duckboy - P.J. Hill - 19 points
3. Not including the Team QB position, there are 6 teams that have only one player projected to score 200+ points:
nittanylion
Pimpin' Ain't Easy
Sinrman
Bri
SLBD
Old Milwaukee
All other teams have at least 2 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points. This partly explains why these teams are projected in 6 of the bottom 7 spots.
4. Meanwhile, JWB has 4 non Team QB players projected for 200+ points, which is the most.
5. Returning to this post:
The highest projection of the teams that took 1st round Team QBs is 10th.Surprised at 4 1st round Team QBs.
Last year in League 2, 2 Team QBs were taken in the 1st round, by Bri and Pimpin'. They finished 12th and 13th, respectively.
In 2008 in League 2, 3 Team QBs were taken in the 1st round, by joffer, Anarchy99, and Pimpin'. They finished 12th, 13th, and 16th, respectively.
Small sample size, but this doesn't seem like a winning strategy. Now we have SLBD, Sinrman, nittanylion, and Pimpin' trying to buck the trend. Hey, at least Pimpin' is consistent.
Tau837
Footballguy
I've posted DD projections each year, and it has tended to get most of the teams within a reasonable tolerance, but there are typically a few exceptions. Many of the exceptions where teams finish much lower than projected have to do with injuries... but, of course, it is also true that many projections end up being off base for other reasons.Still, I think the number of variables is really an issue that prevents DD from effectively recommending draft picks, not from projecting outcomes after the draft is complete. I don't think the number of variables really affects its projections at all. The scoring system and our rosters are fixed at this point, not variable. The only real variable it does not attempt to account for is NFL playoff game points, so if that's what you meant, I agree. But really, whether or not its projections are accurate isn't a DD issue at all, it's an issue for the projections it uses - in this case, Dodds' default projections. Maybe that's what you meant, that it's too hard for Dodds to accurately project everything. But if that's what you meant, that essentially applies to everyone who is doing projections, not just this particular set of projections.It would be great if others had other assessment methods to post. I also miss Biabreakable and his reviews of each team. Maybe someone else should take that on.
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Team QBs
Cleveland TMQB - 17.6
Buffalo TMQB - 18.11
I could NOT believe the frequency that the QBs were drafter. Decided to try my best to get value at RB and WR and hope for a value pick later. But even the second tier team WBs went much earlier than I thought that they should. Finally, around the tenth round, I determined that I would allow the rest of y'all to pick my two QBs. Neither of these teams have any chance to reach the playoffs so this is definitely an F
RBs
1.6 Frank Gore RB #1
2.11 Steven Jackson RB #2
5.6 LeSean McCoy RB #3
8.11 Fred Jackson RB #4
I typically attempt to get a couple of top RB talents as if you choose wisely, you can establish an advantage. I think that the RBs I drafted give me that opportunity. All four of these guys have the potential to produce significant points. Only Gore, in my opinion is expected to make the playoffs though. Grade B+
WRs
3.6 Steve Smith (Car)
4.11 Percy Harvin
6.11 T. J. Houshmandzada
7.6 M. Floyd
9.6 Austin Collie
16.11 Davonne Bess
I really like Steve Smith’s 2010 outlook. Harvin, Floyd, and Collie all have potential to produce well and make the playoffs. As a late rounder, I like Bess a lot in ppr formats. Not much in the top ten expectations, but solid down the line. Grade B-
TEs
12.11 Jimmy Graham
13.6 Moeaki
This was a disaster for my squad. The lack of any fire-power here probably eliminates me from competition without some real surprises and injuries. I never felt like I had the opportunity to draft a quality player at anything resembling value and got trampled as I continued to look elsewhere. Grade F
PKs
14.11 Nugent Cin
15.6 Nedney SF
I have less PK knowledge than usual and there seem to be too many camp battles which always wind up in players getting cut and replaced when the fail to produce. I decided to get two PKs early on as I did not have a clue who to grab later. Also going all in on the Bengals making the playoffs. Grade B
DSTs
10.11 Saints DST
11.6 Bengals DST
Two solid defenses that could make the playoffs. Grade B
Overall – definitely agree with the lower middle of the group. Need for my two team QBs to outperform their draft position, which they undoubtedly will do. BWAHAHAHAAHAH. Also need to get some scoring out of my TEs which will be unexpected.
Cleveland TMQB - 17.6
Buffalo TMQB - 18.11
I could NOT believe the frequency that the QBs were drafter. Decided to try my best to get value at RB and WR and hope for a value pick later. But even the second tier team WBs went much earlier than I thought that they should. Finally, around the tenth round, I determined that I would allow the rest of y'all to pick my two QBs. Neither of these teams have any chance to reach the playoffs so this is definitely an F
RBs
1.6 Frank Gore RB #1
2.11 Steven Jackson RB #2
5.6 LeSean McCoy RB #3
8.11 Fred Jackson RB #4
I typically attempt to get a couple of top RB talents as if you choose wisely, you can establish an advantage. I think that the RBs I drafted give me that opportunity. All four of these guys have the potential to produce significant points. Only Gore, in my opinion is expected to make the playoffs though. Grade B+
WRs
3.6 Steve Smith (Car)
4.11 Percy Harvin
6.11 T. J. Houshmandzada
7.6 M. Floyd
9.6 Austin Collie
16.11 Davonne Bess
I really like Steve Smith’s 2010 outlook. Harvin, Floyd, and Collie all have potential to produce well and make the playoffs. As a late rounder, I like Bess a lot in ppr formats. Not much in the top ten expectations, but solid down the line. Grade B-
TEs
12.11 Jimmy Graham
13.6 Moeaki
This was a disaster for my squad. The lack of any fire-power here probably eliminates me from competition without some real surprises and injuries. I never felt like I had the opportunity to draft a quality player at anything resembling value and got trampled as I continued to look elsewhere. Grade F
PKs
14.11 Nugent Cin
15.6 Nedney SF
I have less PK knowledge than usual and there seem to be too many camp battles which always wind up in players getting cut and replaced when the fail to produce. I decided to get two PKs early on as I did not have a clue who to grab later. Also going all in on the Bengals making the playoffs. Grade B
DSTs
10.11 Saints DST
11.6 Bengals DST
Two solid defenses that could make the playoffs. Grade B
Overall – definitely agree with the lower middle of the group. Need for my two team QBs to outperform their draft position, which they undoubtedly will do. BWAHAHAHAAHAH. Also need to get some scoring out of my TEs which will be unexpected.
Swing for the fences type pick. I do think that if (when) Shockey gets hurt that Graham could be the receiving TE for the Saints over Thomas. Without any top QBs and no top TEs, I was looking for someone that COULD score outside the expected and help me out, over some guy that might end the year with 80 or so. And he plays for the Saints, one of the teams most expected to make the playoffs. Not saying it is a good pick, but explaining my thinking.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I will be beyond surprised if LSH does not have AT LEAST 30 points (which I think is roughly where Unlucky has him projected) and he may well have more although that would mean that Leinart is more than just adequate. He has been making a lot of plays in camp and he did fine with limited chances last year and Whisenhunt really likes him - he might play so well that they release Wright. Tremendous upside for a last round pick with big rosters and best ball
Graham agreeHill - no can't really change it - the might add someone or Ivory might be the guy that emerges - just saying with Hamilton OUT he could easily surpass that
Tau837
Footballguy
I assume you misspoke here and know this is not best ball, right?
Captain Hook
Footballguy
No, I understand THIS league is total points - I was merely point out since several of the guys in this league play in best ball competitions, he might be a consideration if the rosters were large enough
Tau837
Footballguy
kudos on having the cujones to pick him. I don't care for the pick but then again I'd rather do something like that (most times) than pick some meh player that will have a predictably poor season.
Super curious about Mike Williams, hope to see something tonight. Would have liked to before the draft but...last pick why not?
I know I've been burned by being a fan of all he could be but never has been.
I think Gage might get cut, like some others do as well. If not, that means he put his nose to the grindstone and may do well. If so, he is a wise enough WR that he can walk onto another team and pick up their possession type routes quickly. I don't think he's bad at that point in the draft.
Jordy...yeah well I guess I'm hoping he earns more PT. Without it, the pick stinks but I thought he was a good late pick
I know I've been burned by being a fan of all he could be but never has been.
I think Gage might get cut, like some others do as well. If not, that means he put his nose to the grindstone and may do well. If so, he is a wise enough WR that he can walk onto another team and pick up their possession type routes quickly. I don't think he's bad at that point in the draft.
Jordy...yeah well I guess I'm hoping he earns more PT. Without it, the pick stinks but I thought he was a good late pick
CalBear
Footballguy
Team analysis:
Fiddles: Another string draft this year (although it helps to be in the 1.01 slot). Johnson/Charles/Bradshaw should be a solid RB corps, and the WR collection looks good as well. I think the QB picks were both a bit high; going QB later and upgrading from Larod Stephens-Howling at RB would have resulted in a better team. But it's still competitive.
Bri: RB king with four solid starters, but lacking at almost every other position. Being the RB king just doesn't matter much in this format. I have him last in overall scoring potential. Would need some unexpected performances from his TEs, or from Rice/Breaston/Britt at WR.
There It Is: Stud TE strategy has worked before. He may have been a bit early on his selections, but he's clearly TE king, which means a lot in the Anarchy leagues. Dead last in WRs, though, and not very strong at RB either. Would have been a lot better without the fourth and fifth round QB picks; now he'll have to hope for top-10 finishes from Kolb and E.Manning, and something magical from the WRs.
Anarchy: Not #1 at any position, but a well-balanced team. Daniel Graham could be a last-round steal at TE. A.Foster pick is looking good right now. Should be competitive.
Old Milwaukee: Is still undrinkable swill. Big question mark for this team is Vincent Jackson; if he's in, the WR corps will make this team competitive. Otherwise, I don't think he can survive getting a zero from a seventh-round pick, especially with two early QB picks. And the choice of Kris Brown, which will cost him 100 points, showed inattention.
rzrback77: Tied for RB king prior to F.Jackson's injury; S.Jackson at 2.11 was a nice pick. WR should be good, but got skunked out at TE, which is a problem in this format. DD has this team rated fairly lowly, but I think it's better than that, because BUF QB+CLE QB will almost certainly score more than they are being projected to. Fred Jackson injury's is bad news.
Jiggyonthehut: I don't like spending high picks on QBs, but I dislike even more spending mid-level picks on mid-level QBs. Chad Henne in the seventh round, really? It didn't hurt him too badly, as he still got good RB value and some solid WRs. TE is a problem, which leaves this team in the middle of the pack.
Just Win Baby: Very nice draft, snaking my pick multiple times. Got unlucky with the Lynell Hamilton pick, but still looks like the overall favorite out of the gate.
SLBD: QB king. Fairly irrelevant in this format. The rest of the team is pretty weak; RBs came out OK only due to overinvestment in them (only team with five). he gets a slight upgrade for CJ Spiller with the Jackson injury, with a slight downgrade for Ben Tate so far. Seriously hurting at WR and TE.
CalBear: WR king by a long ways, with decent TEs. RBs are on the weak side, along with QB (although see comment on rzrback77--they'll do better than projected). Should be competitive, especially if the RBs stay healthy.
radballs: Also snaked several of my draft picks and wound up with a good team. A lot will depend on how the SD, ARI, and DEN RB situations work out; so far it looks good for him. Good WRs and above-average TEs with Witten. I have him as the #2 team behind Just Win.
Sinrman: Seemed to be on the wrong side of the value curve much of the draft. Brandon Marshall at 2.05, really? Would need help to be competitive, especially from Cotchery, DHB, B.Jacobs and D.McFadden.
Duckboy: TE power had him at the top of the pack early, but he lost momentum by taking the first defense. With Favre/Moss/Owens, looks a little too much like a team built to win two years ago. Biggest wildcard is Meachem. Should be competitive, in any case, despite being dead last in RB strength.
Captain Hook: Stealing Tony Gonzalez was a good start, but Thomas and Jones seem like poor value in the third and fourth rounds. He has chances, based on performances from F.Jones Massaquoi, Hardesty, and S.Stroughter.
nittanylion: Would need an insane season from Manning/Wayne to be competitive. I don't like the choice of both Driver and J.Jones; not enough balls in GB; also don't like the M.Barber/T.Choice handcuff.
Pimpin' Ain't Easy: Didn't really recover from the first-round Tony Romo pick. I like Boldin at 4.01 but not the rest of the WRs. RBs are bottom-rung. Would need a couple RBs to become starters, and Bowe to have a good season to have any shot.
Fiddles: Another string draft this year (although it helps to be in the 1.01 slot). Johnson/Charles/Bradshaw should be a solid RB corps, and the WR collection looks good as well. I think the QB picks were both a bit high; going QB later and upgrading from Larod Stephens-Howling at RB would have resulted in a better team. But it's still competitive.
Bri: RB king with four solid starters, but lacking at almost every other position. Being the RB king just doesn't matter much in this format. I have him last in overall scoring potential. Would need some unexpected performances from his TEs, or from Rice/Breaston/Britt at WR.
There It Is: Stud TE strategy has worked before. He may have been a bit early on his selections, but he's clearly TE king, which means a lot in the Anarchy leagues. Dead last in WRs, though, and not very strong at RB either. Would have been a lot better without the fourth and fifth round QB picks; now he'll have to hope for top-10 finishes from Kolb and E.Manning, and something magical from the WRs.
Anarchy: Not #1 at any position, but a well-balanced team. Daniel Graham could be a last-round steal at TE. A.Foster pick is looking good right now. Should be competitive.
Old Milwaukee: Is still undrinkable swill. Big question mark for this team is Vincent Jackson; if he's in, the WR corps will make this team competitive. Otherwise, I don't think he can survive getting a zero from a seventh-round pick, especially with two early QB picks. And the choice of Kris Brown, which will cost him 100 points, showed inattention.
rzrback77: Tied for RB king prior to F.Jackson's injury; S.Jackson at 2.11 was a nice pick. WR should be good, but got skunked out at TE, which is a problem in this format. DD has this team rated fairly lowly, but I think it's better than that, because BUF QB+CLE QB will almost certainly score more than they are being projected to. Fred Jackson injury's is bad news.
Jiggyonthehut: I don't like spending high picks on QBs, but I dislike even more spending mid-level picks on mid-level QBs. Chad Henne in the seventh round, really? It didn't hurt him too badly, as he still got good RB value and some solid WRs. TE is a problem, which leaves this team in the middle of the pack.
Just Win Baby: Very nice draft, snaking my pick multiple times. Got unlucky with the Lynell Hamilton pick, but still looks like the overall favorite out of the gate.
SLBD: QB king. Fairly irrelevant in this format. The rest of the team is pretty weak; RBs came out OK only due to overinvestment in them (only team with five). he gets a slight upgrade for CJ Spiller with the Jackson injury, with a slight downgrade for Ben Tate so far. Seriously hurting at WR and TE.
CalBear: WR king by a long ways, with decent TEs. RBs are on the weak side, along with QB (although see comment on rzrback77--they'll do better than projected). Should be competitive, especially if the RBs stay healthy.
radballs: Also snaked several of my draft picks and wound up with a good team. A lot will depend on how the SD, ARI, and DEN RB situations work out; so far it looks good for him. Good WRs and above-average TEs with Witten. I have him as the #2 team behind Just Win.
Sinrman: Seemed to be on the wrong side of the value curve much of the draft. Brandon Marshall at 2.05, really? Would need help to be competitive, especially from Cotchery, DHB, B.Jacobs and D.McFadden.
Duckboy: TE power had him at the top of the pack early, but he lost momentum by taking the first defense. With Favre/Moss/Owens, looks a little too much like a team built to win two years ago. Biggest wildcard is Meachem. Should be competitive, in any case, despite being dead last in RB strength.
Captain Hook: Stealing Tony Gonzalez was a good start, but Thomas and Jones seem like poor value in the third and fourth rounds. He has chances, based on performances from F.Jones Massaquoi, Hardesty, and S.Stroughter.
nittanylion: Would need an insane season from Manning/Wayne to be competitive. I don't like the choice of both Driver and J.Jones; not enough balls in GB; also don't like the M.Barber/T.Choice handcuff.
Pimpin' Ain't Easy: Didn't really recover from the first-round Tony Romo pick. I like Boldin at 4.01 but not the rest of the WRs. RBs are bottom-rung. Would need a couple RBs to become starters, and Bowe to have a good season to have any shot.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Good work THANKS and interesting analysis on some - we will see what we will see - this is a really competitive fun draft every year and while I haven't done well at it, I always learn something from you guys.Now.....on this comment
Brown has not yet lost the job - he and Rackers are both still on the team and competing for the job....................so your last two words may well come back and bite youknowwhoyouknowwhereCalBear said:
This is LJ
Footballguy
Spot on. The QB situation will make or break my season. That being said, I thought I got good value. Flacco @ QB10 and Henne @ QB18. I think Henne really outperforms and ends up in the top15. I think Flacco will end up around that spot but I think the Ravens make a deep run this year and he'll get an opportunity to produce some additional points. I'll post a writeup at some point.Matt Bryant just won the job in ATLCalBear said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Same caveats as above. Updated based on Dodds' latest projections:2979.7 Just Win Baby2918.0 radballs2827.7 Anarchy992814.6 Jiggyonthehut2766.9 Duckboy2761.3 There It Is2724.9 Fiddles2663.6 Captain Hook2619.0 nittanylion2573.6 Sinrman2552.9 rzrback772532.7 SLBD2518.0 Bri2473.0 Old Milwaukee2432.3 CalBear2372.6 Pimpin' Ain't EasyBig movers:- Jiggy moves up 5 spots with Matt Bryant winning the Atlanta PK job.- CalBear plunged 7 spots thanks to injuries to Avery and Schilens and projected reductions for Fitz and Maroney.- Pimpin' dropped 5 spots with Hauschka losing the Atlanta PK job and projected reductions for Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Bryant, despite a nice projected bump for Dez Bryant.
There it is
Footballguy
God! I hate that word.Just Win Baby said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, Schilens will likely be back, but his projected points dropped from 117.4 to 57.6 between my two posts. Perhaps I worded that poorly if it implied that I was suggesting Schilens will be out for the season like Avery.
This is LJ
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
No, I'm just saying the FBG projections are too low for him.
Tau837
Footballguy
Same caveats as above. Updated with Dodds' latest projections:2923.1 radballs2847.1 Just Win Baby2826.5 Anarchy992800.8 Jiggyonthehut2781.6 Duckboy2776.6 Fiddles2767.5 There It Is2623.5 Captain Hook2602.9 Sinrman2596.0 nittanylion2535.7 rzrback772519.7 Bri2512.5 Old Milwaukee2506.3 SLBD2396.7 CalBear2330.1 Pimpin' Ain't EasyBig hit for me, with Cundiff beating out Graham in Baltimore.
I violated one of my own rules by taking a kicker with uncertainty. I can only hope Graham gets a call when another kicker struggles or gets hurt.Really? Neither Forte, Benson nor DeAngelo?Benson was near 200 points last year (196).I always thought the FBG board's love for DeAngelo was a bit strong, but still he's an exciting player that sure can produce gaudy stats at times. Forte...geesh is he going to be someone to remember years from now. I can't recall a bandwagon filling up and emptying so fast for a player-not even Michael Clayton and it would have been deservedly so if it happened with him. My thoughts on Forte is simple-he's not as great as some thought and not as bad. Oh well, no big deal.I really enjoy this league every year, thank you David.I enjoy it because you guys are knowledgable and I attempt to try things in the draft that are different. What might work against average FF folks won't necessarily work against you guys and I really appreciate the opportunity to do that.Clearly I'm going overboard on the stud RB theory this year. It's not to say I'm not trying to win when I try things.I did think QBs early was the way to go and injuries killed me last year, not coincidentally I loved Sidney Rice (David put pick in but I would have) and was so sure (as FF folks can be) that he'd do so far better than his draft position that it would cover the RB stuff some.You guys got me on the TE. There were two runs that seem unheard of on tight ends that just totally left me high N dry...twice! In 20 years of doing FF, I don't think I've ever seen TE runs like we had here. I know the scoring format is favorable but still.I like Fasano to have a better than expected season but in no way did I want him as my top TE.I hated Shawn Nelson but like him a little better now that the Bills have a slew of nobodies at WR2 and cut the most talented nobody they had. Growing up a Pats fan, I have always thought that a good TE would be such a weapon in the cold in Buffalo. I love cold weather football and think it's very different than indoors in ways that aren't so evident for FF but quite enjoyable to watch. Anyhow, apparently the Bills have never agreed with me about TEs but...I thought I had Kris Brown here so kinda glad I don't. That's rough.I still believe Gage could be traded and know I got some tips from awesome sources on that. I expect Britt will get his stuff together and think he will be a big deal when he does. I had some nice friends that sent me some videos they shot with their phones and Britt is just wow at practice/camp at times. There's no doubt he's dogging it like some have said. However, Fisher saying he may not be on the 45 for week one is exactly what I wanted to hear. Fisher is on top of it-good! So despite the rant, the two Titans could kill me here. Drafting two Titans is a smidge smarter than drafting two Bucs WRs, I regret that.I'm not worried about the Zona QB spot. I might be wrong, sure, but I think it'll be good for FF.Finally, this was invaluable this year. Divorce sucks in so many ways and this was something to focus upon. I had a heart attack earlier this year and with the stress of divorce following that, there was this maelstrom of BS circling me and it was like "ignore all that and check out the anarchy league" so I put my head down and did. I kinda laughed at the notion of making this league so vital so important, but it was working to keep focused on something relatively trivial instead of all the uber-serious stuff. Public board and all, that's about all the details I want to give but...thanks guys. In an odd way, I think I just might remember this draft longer than any of you ever will. I don't really care if I win anymore, it's already been a tremendous value to me.
Sinrman
Footballguy
I actually will agree with the conclusion that none of my guys, outside of the QB position, will score 200+ points this year. With the exception of Marshall. I mean, I know he's on a new team and a young QB throwing to him, but come on...Hopefully all of my guys can stay healthy and contribute to keep me competitive.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Week One results are up . . .
Anarchy99 220.96
Just Win Baby 213.50
There It Is 210.68
Sinrman 200.28
radballs 200.26
Fiddles 191.86
Bri 181.68
rzrback77 171.84
Captain Hook 169.42
nittanylion 158.12
Jiggyonthehut 155.60
Old Milwaukee 155.24
CalBear 142.60
Duckboy 127.60
Pimpin' Ain't Easy 119.12
SLBD 101.86
Anarchy99 220.96
Just Win Baby 213.50
There It Is 210.68
Sinrman 200.28
radballs 200.26
Fiddles 191.86
Bri 181.68
rzrback77 171.84
Captain Hook 169.42
nittanylion 158.12
Jiggyonthehut 155.60
Old Milwaukee 155.24
CalBear 142.60
Duckboy 127.60
Pimpin' Ain't Easy 119.12
SLBD 101.86
There it is
Footballguy
I'm absolutely shocked at Duckboy's finish. It's only week one, he'll be up there at the end.
CalBear
Footballguy
This has been a two-horse race for a while, and it looks like it's going down to the wire!
Fiddles has a 16.98-point lead with Jennings (GB) and Knox (CHI) left. He's guaranteed to have exactly one WR in the Super Bowl. radballs is trailing, but has the CHI TMQB, Tomlinson, and Braylon Edwards. radballs will probably take it if the Jets win; otherwise, Fiddles will probably hold on.
Fiddles has a 16.98-point lead with Jennings (GB) and Knox (CHI) left. He's guaranteed to have exactly one WR in the Super Bowl. radballs is trailing, but has the CHI TMQB, Tomlinson, and Braylon Edwards. radballs will probably take it if the Jets win; otherwise, Fiddles will probably hold on.
