last year CAR traded their 2010 1st for SF 2nd (43rd overall)...
that would be about a 10 spot drop... but it netted the 2010 1st for SF, not a 2009 2nd, too.*
imo, they might find a RB like dwyer or dexter mccluster in the 3rd... i agree with fanatic that a RB upgrade has obviously been a big need for a few years, but they just had too many holes to get everything at once (or even in 2-3 years!
)...
as exciting as mccluster could be as a cribbs-lite type weapon, i don't necessarily think they need a change of pace RB with a different skill set... a RB like dwyer who could carry the load if jackson is injured (as fanatic noted, jackson has physical, punishing style, to himself, as well as defenders
) would help the rams to not skip a beat if he was called on... when jackson was hurt in recent years, it was just a gaping hole in the rams attack, as they had nobody... jackson in his prime, and not old, but in a few years, he will be creeping towards 30, where a RB can be old, especially a bruiser like jackson... than again, 2-3 years would give them time to reload down the road... if they can get a dwyer type in 3rd this year (shonn green went at 3.1 last year?), they can in the future... so i would be fine with an all-pupose weapon like mccluster, who could get 10-15 touches a game, spelling jackson, as a wildcat QB, splitting out as a receiving RB & as a ST force... that could make the team more dangerous in multiple ways.
i also agree that unless a player drops that we just have to have, we should leverage the pick and trade down for a couple later picks (two 2nds... a higher 2nd and 3rd?)... the rams have so many holes, and this is a deep draft, where they can fill positions of need in rounds 2-3 & beyond...
on offense, among the biggest need positions (in addition to RB, which i'd like to see them get later) are aforementioned receiving wepon for bradford... maybe TE like gresham, if his knee checks out... that would represent immediate chemistry with bradford... i can't remember the last time the rams had a great receiving TE, and that could diversify and open up the offense... WR like tate, benn or thomas could be an option, if they drop... scouting opinion is pretty divided on these guys... maybe they could get another WR later (don't think any fall to 3rd, and maybe they like a RB there, depending on how the draft takes shape?)... gronkowsi might be another TE they could get later, probably top 2-3 on talent, but scary back injury history. maybe he has 3rd round value, weighing tradeoff of his upside/checkered medical history?
RT & RG on the OL could be need positions... they do have barron for now at RT, and may be content to wait another year... but he will probably be gone next year, so it might make sense to groom his successor, and better protect their franchise QB investment... they could get positions like this later, but if a borderline 1st round OT drops, it might be tempting... i don't think any way iupati or pouncey drop there, but they could be very tempting on value and in BPA sense. i think spags would like to run more consistently, which would be another way to take pressure off a young QB.
on defense... DT could be a need (suh/mccoy were strong options with #1), less so if carriker can stay healthy (huge if), and they did sign FA stop gap robbins, who was with spags in NYG... DE, even if long developes... hall re-signed but old, little almost certainly moving on... LB big need, even with stop gap diggs signed (he has versatility to play WLB or SLB, probably a better fit on strong side, not the kind of dynamic playmaker offenses must account for)... CB could be need, but they signed bartell to a big contract last year he didn't play up to, and 3rd rounder fletcher tore ACL... fortunately, fletcher reportedly looks good in rehab and is on schedule to return... it seems like they have bigger needs, and upgrading the front seven could help the secondary (QB pressure, creating more favorable down & distance situations for defense, etc)... maybe safety, depending on what happens with atogwe... but again, they seem to have bigger needs elsewhere, and safety can be gotten later if needed...
it is hard to narrow down, as they have so many needs...
hopefully they trade down at 2.1 & parlay this pick into several others in 2nd or 2nd & 3rd (they could also trade down from 3.1 &/or 4.1, to generate additional picks)...
on offense, i'd like to see them go receiving weapon (TE/WR?) or compelling value RT/RG...
on defense, imo biggest needs are LB & DE (maybe DT, too, depending on how confident they are in carriker - he hasn't done much so far to instill a lot of confidence in his reliability to stay on the field)...
* what does "the chart" suggest STL could get, in terms of...
multiple lower 2nds
or a higher 2nd (than either of the two 2nds in above scenario) and a 3rd?
maybe a relatively high 2nd, and a 2nd next year?
** somebody answered this question on another board...
"if you are hoping for two 2nds...
it may be a little steep. The teams currently with 2 2nd round picks this year are: TB, KC, Philly and NE (who has 3 )
According to ESPNs draft value chart the 33rd is worth 580 points. If we trade down to say the 40th pick (it has a 500 value) we need 80 more points or the 107th overall or the 11th pick of the 4th round. Strictly going by the chart I would say forget it, but, since teams will have a full evening to restack boards and talk trades I think that 33rd pick is gonna be more valuable then that. Maybe swap 2nds and throw in a mid third is the best you can hope for.
Then again, what the heck do I know."
(edit/add - ) BTW, is there a chart that weighs the value of pick next year relative to this year (lets say, a 2nd in both cases)?
*** more thoughts, on the 3rd and 4th rounder...
"Finding a trading partner in the Detroit Lions, the Jets gave up their selectons in Rounds 3 (No. 76 overall), 4 (No. 115) and 7 (No. 228) in this year’s draft in order to get the former Hawkeye."
the rams reportedly coveted shonn greene, but were scooped by the jets (who incidentally, have done a great job of trading up in recent years to find playmakers... they traded up in 2007 to get darrelle revis ((right after carriker - OOOUUUCCCHHH!!!), the best young CB in the NFL, maybe best period, ahead of woodson, as well as david harris, one of the better young ILBs in the league, and last year got their QB & RB of the future...
greene looked good, i think was first rookie RB in league history to get 100+ yards an a TD in first two playoff starts?
anyways, though there is no overnight break between rounds two and three like last few years, there will still be some great value there in a deep draft by all accounts... teams have had weeks/months to break down their boards, and churned through countless contingencies... so they could still be able to trade down from the 3.1, and parlay that into a few 3rds, or a 3 & 4 (2nd next year, 3rd this year and 3rd next, etc?).
and the 4th round leading off day three is back to like it used to be (a few iterations ago), when day one was 1-3, and day two (4-7), where there will be an overnight picks, & that pick could see some action as well...
**** bloom scouting reports for players on offense that could be in play in rounds 3-4 (later?)...
wouldn't consider dwyer in 2nd, but maybe in 3rd... would they consider matthews in 2nd? he is probably gone to HOU or SD in 1st... i'd rather get another position, & dwyer/mccluster in 3rd...
3. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech - It’s becoming clearer than not only will Dwyer fall out of the first round, he’ll likely fall out of the first 50 picks and even out of the top two rounds. You won’t need to take him nearly this high to get him in your rookie draft, but this ranking is not a draft guide. Dwyer has to work on his conditioning and there are questions about how he’ll translate outside of the triple option, but to me these issues indicate even more upside for a player that flashed a lot during his collegiate career. He hasn’t had the chance to line up often in the natural tailback position, which offers more depth from the line and two-point stance, meaning better reads and more burst at the point of attack. Dwyer’s thick build, natural tackle breaking ability (especially below the waist) and outstanding lateral agility make him the best-suited RB in this draft running the ball 300 times in the NFL, and he’s also a better receiver and faster than advertised. He’s the one back in this draft that could become a special workhorse if things come together. By no means should you take Dwyer third overall, after the draft he may even be available outside of the top 10, but when evaluating his potential for fantasy football, it’s hard to not get excited.
NFL Comparison: Jonathan Stewart minus fifth gear with LenDale White conditioning issues
not expected to drop to 3rd, but if so, would you rather have him or dwyer/mccluster? haredsty has been included, also, as bloom has him ranked, after benn...
6. Jahvid Best, RB, Cal - Best is right there with Spiller in terms of pure speed, quicks, and open-field running instincts, but he is built less compact than Spiller and seems to run with a style that puts his health at risk. Best is also not much for pass protection and he projects as a committee back at the next level in any scenario. He can still have strong fantasy value because Im sure his game will translate, but he won’t be a consistent week-to-week presence in the box scores, frustrating his owners.
NFL Comparison: Darren Sproles
he has benn ahead of tate & thomas (who he also isn't that high on)...
7. Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois - Benn stands out to me in an otherwise uninspiring second tier of wide receivers. His natural adjustments to the ball and explosive leaping ability make him suited to be a terrific jumpball target, and his speed, fluid athleticism, strength, and RB mentality in the open field will make him a bear after the catch. There are durability questions and Benn is a bust risk for sure, but his ceiling is higher than any wideout not named Bryant.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Marshall
8. Montario Hardesty, RB, Tennessee - Hardesty looks like a perfect fit in a zone blocking scheme running game, and he has as much juice in his legs as any back in this draft when it comes to downhill running and efficiency. His initial burst is excellent, he has some moves, and he gets yards after contact. Hardesty doesn’t present as rare a package of physical attributes as the guys ahead of him on this list, but he could be more productive in the right situation.
NFL Comparison: Travis Henry
10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - Gresham has to convince teams that his knee is ok, but as long as he does, he should be a first-round pick. He’s massive, but very fluid for player his size, and he’s got natural hands, ball skills, and run after catch instincts. His size and strength make him a load to bring down after the catch, and Gresham should also be a red zone weapon. He leads another great class of receiving TEs.
NFL Comparison: Kellen Winslow
11. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida - Hernandez is a bit of tough nut to crack because he’s somewhat in the mold of receiving only TEs from last year’s class who have disappointed so far like Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, and Travis Beckum. On the other hand, Hernandez is a better natural receiver than any of those guys. His hands are sure, his open field running and change of direction are outstanding for a TE, he can sky to get the high ball, and he’s tough, strong, and balanced when it comes time to take a hit. He could be an 80+ catch player in the right system, an afterthought in the wrong one. For now, we’ll err on the side of ranking him where he’d be if he lands somewhere like New England or New Orleans.
NFL Comparison: Chris Cooley
lafell could fall to 3rd? he might be a good inside, possession complement to speedy avery?
14. Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU - LaFell has fewer holes in his game than the second tier WRs above him on this list, but his ceiling is also much lower. He’s a rugged possession receiver who will be a tough customer after the catch, with surprising fluid athleticism and ability to set up DBs with advanced route running technique. LaFell sees the field well and he has dependable hands, a nice combination for a future third-down target.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery minus some quicks and speed
again, he isn't high on thomas or tate...
15. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech - Ive already taken some flak for not having Thomas in my top 10, so I’m sure seeing names Roberts and Shipley ahead of Thomas will likely rankle his backers even more. I’ll admit that Thomas has great straight line speed for a large man, but otherwise, I’m not seeing much to hang my hat on. He can hang in the air, but he looks heavy and not at all explosive as a leaper, and Thomas doesn’t seem to snag the ball as much as he lets it land in his hands like an outfielder. He’s not that fluid or sudden, and I’m not sure that he’ll create much separation on short and intermediate routes that require those qualities. He is aggressive after the catch with a nice stiff arm, but right now Thomas looks like a one-dimensional player to me. He might be a first round pick because of the NFL’s love affair with size/speed receivers, but I won’t spend a first-round pick in rookie drafts on Thomas.
NFL Comparison: Bigger, but less agile Robert Meachem
16. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Tate is another guy who seems to have some of the pieces of a starting WR’s game, but he is missing enough to drop him out of the top 12 on this list. He’s fast, but not a true burner, he’s good in the air, but not big enough to win jump ball battles, he can catch tough passes, but lets easy ones get to his body. Tate is very sudden on the move and the strongest part of his game is his ability to make hay after the catch, but he doesn’t look like a natural receiver to me, and I think he’ll struggle to be consistent enough to produce on a week-in, week-out basis.
NFL Comparison: slightly less athletic Devery Henderson
maybe gronk could be in play in 3rd (later, with injury concerns?), if gresham is gone, as expected (but he has injury concerns of his own, and could drop)...
18. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona - It’s hard to project Gronkowski too high on this list because back injuries that require surgery and sink a season are scary, but Gronk will be a good one and reward the NFL team and fantasy owners that take a chance on him as long as the back is sound. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has sticky hands and a mean streak as a blocker and runner after the catch. He also runs good routes and understands how to find soft spots in a zone. Along with Gresham and Hernandez, Gronkowski has a chance to become a premier fantasy tight end.
NFL Comparison: Zach Miller
could look really good
19. Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss - Five or ten years ago, McCluster would have been a lot lower on this list, but the NFL has evolved to embrace a player of his talents. McCluster will be a lethal wildcat QB, a cat-quick slot receiver, and a running back that is good for 5-10 change of pace touches in space a game. He has the best phone-booth quicks of any player in this class and McCluster just knows what to do when the ball is in his hands. He is small, but he runs with courage, and McCluster should become a fan favorite, if not fantasy favorite at the next level.
NFL Comparison: sleeker, smaller Josh Cribbs
